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Characterizing regional-scale temporal evolution of air dose rates after the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant accident

In this study, we quantify the temporal changes of air dose rates in the regional scale around the Fukushima Dai-ichi Nuclear Power Plant in Japan, and predict the spatial distribution of air dose rates in the future. We first apply the Bayesian geostatistical method developed by Wainwright et al. (2017) to integrate multiscale datasets including ground-based walk and car surveys, and airborne surveys, all of which have different scales, resolutions, spatial coverage, and accuracy. This method is based on geostatistics to represent spatial heterogeneous structures, and also on Bayesian hierarchical models to integrate multiscale, multi-type datasets in a consistent manner. We apply this method to the datasets from three years: 2014 to 2016. The temporal changes among the three integrated maps enables us to characterize the spatiotemporal dynamics of radiation air dose rates. The data-driven ecological decay model is then coupled with the integrated map to predict future dose rates. Results show that the air dose rates are decreasing consistently across the region. While slower in the forested region, the decrease is particularly significant in the town area. The decontamination has contributed to significant reduction of air dose rates. By 2026, the air dose rates will continue to decrease, and the area above 3.8 μSv/h will be almost fully contained within the non-residential forested zone.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

Magnetic anisotropy and spin scattering in (La 2/3 Sr 1/3 )MnO 3 /CaRuO 3 bilayers

Complex ferromagnetic oxides have been identified as possible candidate materials for sources of spin currents. Here we study bilayers of ferromagnetic (La 2/3 Sr 1/3 )MnO 3 (LSMO) and metallic CaRuO 3 (CRO) on LSAT substrates as a model system for spin pumping. Ferromagnetic resonance (FMR) measurements of these bilayers show evidence of spin pumping across the interface in the form of an increase in Gilbert damping with the addition of CRO. FMR indicates that the presence of CRO modifies the magnetic anisotropy of the LSMO. By increasing CRO thickness, we find a reduction of the out-of-plane anisotropy and simultaneous rotation of the easy axis within the plane, from the $\langle$110$\rangle$ to $\langle$100$\rangle$ axis. The evolution of magnetic anisotropy determined by FMR disagrees with that measured by bulk SQUID magnetometry and is accompanied by structural distortions in the LSMO layer as measured by x-ray diffraction, thus suggesting a change in magnetic anisotropy attributed to structural distortions imposed on LSMO by CRO. These results suggest that while LSMO and CRO remain promising candidates for efficient pure spin current generation and detection, respectively, epitaxial integration of perovskites will cause additional changes which must be accounted for in spintronics applications.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Elucidation of the physical factors that control activated transport of penetrants in chemically complex glass-forming liquids

Understanding the activated transport of penetrant or tracer atoms and molecules in condensed phases is a challenging problem in chemistry, materials science, physics, and biophysics. Many angstrom- and nanometer-scale features enter due to the highly variable shape, size, interaction, and conformational flexibility of the penetrant and matrix species, leading to a dramatic diversity of penetrant dynamics. Based on a minimalist model of a spherical penetrant in equilibrated dense matrices of hard spheres, a recent microscopic theory that relates hopping transport to local structure has predicted a novel correlation between penetrant diffusivity and the matrix thermodynamic dimensionless compressibility, S 0 ( T ) (which also quantifies the amplitude of long wavelength density fluctuations), as a consequence of a fundamental statistical mechanical relationship between structure and thermodynamics. Moreover, the penetrant activation barrier is predicted to have a factorized/multiplicative form, scaling as the product of an inverse power law of S 0 ( T ) and a linear/logarithmic function of the penetrant-to-matrix size ratio. This implies an enormous reduction in chemical complexity that is verified based solely on experimental data for diverse classes of chemically complex penetrants dissolved in molecular and polymeric liquids over a wide range of temperatures down to the kinetic glass transition. The predicted corollary that the penetrant diffusion constant decreases exponentially with inverse temperature raised to an exponent determined solely by how S 0 ( T ) decreases with cooling is also verified experimentally. Our findings are relevant to fundamental questions in glassy dynamics, self-averaging of angstrom-scale chemical features, and applications such as membrane separations, barrier coatings, drug delivery, and self-healing.

Science & Technology - Other Topics↗

NASA Tech Briefs, October 2013

Topics include: A Short-Range Distance Sensor with Exceptional Linearity; Miniature Trace Gas Detector Based on Microfabricated Optical Resonators; Commercial Non-Dispersive Infrared Spectroscopy Sensors for Sub-Ambient Carbon Dioxide Detection; Fast, Large-Area, Wide-Bandgap UV Photodetector for Cherenkov Light Detection; Mission Data System Java Edition Version 7; Adaptive Distributed Environment for Procedure Training (ADEPT); LEGEND, a LEO-to-GEO Environment Debris Model; Electronics/Computers; Millimeter-Wave Localizers for Aircraft-to-Aircraft Approach Navigation; Impedance Discontinuity Reduction Between High-Speed Differential Connectors and PCB Interfaces; SpaceCube Version 1.5; High-Pressure Lightweight Thrusters; Non-Magnetic, Tough, Corrosion- and Wear-Resistant Knives From Bulk Metallic Glasses and Composites; Ambient Dried Aerogels; Applications for Gradient Metal Alloys Fabricated Using Additive Manufacturing; Passivation of Flexible YBCO Superconducting Current Lead With Amorphous SiO2 Layer; Propellant-Flow-Actuated Rocket Engine Igniter; Lightweight Liquid Helium Dewar for High-Altitude Balloon Payloads; Method to Increase Performance of Foil Bearings Through Passive Thermal Management; Unibody Composite Pressurized Structure; JWST Integrated Science Instrument Module Alignment Optimization Tool; Radar Range Sidelobe Reduction Using Adaptive Pulse Compression Technique; Digitally Calibrated TR Modules Enabling Real-Time Beamforming SweepSAR Architectures; Electro-Optic Time-to-Space Converter for Optical Detector Jitter Mitigation; Partially Transparent Petaled Mask/Occulter for Visible-Range Spectrum; Educational NASA Computational and Scientific Studies (enCOMPASS); Coarse-Grain Bandwidth Estimation Scheme for Large-Scale Network; Detection of Moving Targets Using Soliton Resonance Effect; High-Efficiency Nested Hall Thrusters for Robotic Solar System Exploration; High-Voltage Clock Driver for Photon-Counting CCD Characterization; Development of the Code RITRACKS; and Enabling Microliquid Chromatography by Microbead Packing of Microchannels.

Source record↗

Improving energy yield in photovoltaic modules with photonic structures

When installed outdoors, Si solar cells typically operate 20 – 30 K above ambient conditions. These elevated operating temperatures lead to diminished performance, reducing efficiency by ~0.4%/K for crystalline Si cells and decreasing module lifetime. Since much of the elevated temperature of the modules derives from parasitic absorption of sub-bandgap sunlight by the contacts, encapsulants, or other materials, reflectors that remove the sub-bandgap radiation from the module before it is absorbed promise to reduce the operating temperature. However, there are many competing strategies to reject this light: selective reflectors could be integrated into the outer module glass, at the textured Si-encapsulant interface, or on the rear. Furthermore, many of these approaches are complex and expensive to fabricate. The issue of heating can be even more critical in bifacial modules: high fractions of rear irradiance can lead to higher operating temperatures. Prior to this project, relatively little was known about the optical strategies for temperature reduction in bifacial modules. The goal of this project was to quantitatively assess optical strategies for improving the energy yield via a combination of improved anti-reflection and sub-bandgap light rejection. We studied two complementary concepts: the performance of ideal structures to determine the upper limits to performance, and low-complexity structures made from standard materials as cost-effective implementations. We also studied the performance of these reflectors in different types of modules, including Al BSF, PERC, and bifacial. Here we build from our prior accomplishments in developing mirror optimization techniques, and make use of simulation methods that accurately capture the optical properties of the modules throughout the visible and near-infrared spectrum. We connect these optical properties to energy yield under realistic, outdoor conditions. We also experimentally fabricated mirrors, incorporated them into mini-modules, and performed outdoor testing of performance at NREL. We found definitively that spectrally-selective mirrors on the outside of the module cover glass offer the best performance, both under ideal conditions and for realistic, low- complexity mirrors. Mirrors at the Si cell/encapsulant interface are limited by the multiple reflections needed to remove sub-bandgap light. Mirrors at the cell surface and mirrors on the rear also cannot remove all the sub-bandgap light, since parasitic absorption also occurs in the cover glass, encapsulant, and front contacts, depending on the module configuration. Also, cell texturing places higher demands on any cell-surface mirror because multiple interactions with the mirror are required to reject sub bandgap light which compounds losses. For bifacial modules, mirrors on the back do provide additional cooling and energy yield improvements, and the mirrors can have the same structure. In the monofacial case up to 3.3K of cooling is possible for mirrors on the front, compared to 2.2K at the cell surface and 1.2K at the rear. For bifacial modules, up to 2.4K of cooling is possible when mirrors are included at both the front and back. Our realistic designs utilize 4 – 6 layers of common photovoltaic materials such as SiO 2 , TiO 2 , and SiN x , making them more cost effective. Finally, we used our models to study thermal management in bifacial modules with different back lamination materials, finding that glass-glass laminated modules operated hotter than equivalent glass-polymer backsheet modules, due solely to the increased absorption of light incident from the rear of the module. Improving the energy yield by 2%, which is achievable with these realistic designs, would lead to LCOE reductions of $0.03/kWh by 2030. These benefits make photovoltaic panels more accessible to the public and may reduce associated maintenance costs.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Zoledronate Prevents Simulated Weightlessness-Induced Bone Loss in the Cancellous Compartment While Blunting the Efficacy of a Mechanical Loading Countermeasure

Astronauts using high-force resistance training while weightless show a high-turnover remodeling state within the skeletal system, with resorption and formation biomarkers being elevated. One countermeasure for the skeletal health of astronauts includes an antiresorptive of the bisphosphonate (BP) drug class. We asked, does the combination of an anti-resorptive and high-force exercise during weightlessness have negative effects on bone remodeling and strength? In this study, we developed an integrated model to mimic the mechanical strain of exercise via cyclical loading (CL) in mice treated with the BP Zoledronate (ZOL) combined with hind limb unloading (HU) to simulate weightlessness. We hypothesized that ZOL prevents structural degradation from simulated weightlessness and that CL and ZOL interact to render CL less effective. Thirty-two C57BL/6 mice (male, 16 weeks old, n=8/group) were exposed to 3 weeks of either HU or normal ambulation (NA). Cohorts of mice received one subcutaneous injection of ZOL (45μg/kg), or saline vehicle (VEH), prior to the start of HU. The right tibia was axially compressed in vivo 60x/day to 9N (+1200μstrain on the periosteal surface) and repeated 3x/week during HU. Left tibiae served as a within subject, non-compressed control. Ex vivo μCT was performed on all subjects to determine cancellous and cortical architectural parameters. Static and dynamic histomorphometry were carried out for the left and right tibiae to determine osteoclast- and osteoblast relevant surfaces. Further, micro damage was assessed in select groups by basic-fuchsin staining to test whether CL had an effect. For all assays, a multivariate (2x2x2) ANCOVA model was used to account for body weight changes. Additionally, for the tibiae, we incorporated a random effect for the subject (hence, a mixed model) to account for observations of both left and right tibiae within each subject. P < 0.05 was considered significant. In the cancellous compartment of the proximal tibial metaphysis, we observed a main effect from each independent variable, as determined by structural and histomorphometric assays. Specifically, as expected, ZOL showed an increase in the cancellous bone volume to total volume fraction (BV/TV, +32%) and trabecular number (+18%) compared to the VEH. As expected, ZOL decreased osteoclast surface (OC/BS) by -45% compared to VEH. Surprisingly, ZOL reduced mineralizing surface (MS/BS) and bone formation rate (BFR), indicators of osteoblast activity, by -40% and -54%, respectively, compared to VEH. Altogether, ZOL-treated mice displayed a low turnover state of remodeling in the metaphysis. In the context of skeletal aging, we speculate that ZOL prevented age-related cancellous strut loss during the experiment. As a main effect, as expected, HU decreased BV/TV by - 31% via reductions in both trabecular thickness (-11%) and number (-22%) compared to NA controls. Additionally, HU decreased MS/BS by -38% and bone formation rate (BFR) by -50% compared to NA controls. Altogether, these data are consistent with structural degradation resulting from imbalanced remodeling that favors resorption. As a main effect, CL increased BV/TV by +15% via increased trabecular thickness (+12%) compared to the noncompressed limb. As expected, CL increased MS/BS (+20%) and BFR (+24%), indicating osteoblast mineralization contributed to bone gains. These data show that CL provided an anabolic stimulus to the cancellous tissue. We observed unique interactions in ZOL*CL and HU*CL. First, ZOL prevented CL-induced increases in BV/TV and trabecular number, as compared to VEH. In the context of skeletal aging, these data suggest no added benefit from CL in the ZOL-treated mice. Interestingly, no microdamage was observed in mice that were unloaded and treated with ZOL (independent of CL). Secondly, HU prevented CL-induced increases in BFR, as compared to NA controls. These data suggest that either exercise is less effective or the kinetics of formation are slower during simulated weightlessness. Osteoclast surface was unchanged by either treatment. Thus, in contrast to exercising astronauts, these data do not suggest a high-turnover state in the metaphysis. To assess mechanical properties as a function of HU or ZOL, we tested the left femur in three-point bending ex vivo. As expected, HU decreased stiffness (-30%) compared to NA, and ZOL increased stiffness compared to VEH (+28%). Interestingly, HU increased the post-yield displacement, related to collagenous tensile loading, compared to NA (+20%). ZOL increased yield force (+11%) and ultimate force (+17%), which seems to explain the significant effect of ZOL increasing total energy (work-to-fracture, +15%), while not affecting the post yield displacement. Taken together, ZOL did not have detrimental affect on mechanical properties. Our integrated model simulates the combination of weightlessness, exercise-induced mechanical strain, and anti-resorptive treatment that astronauts experience during space missions. We conclude that Zoledronate was an effective countermeasure against weightlessness-induced bone loss, though zoledronate, as well as weightlessness, rendered exercise-related mechanical loading less effective.

bone↗

Valuation and cost reduction of behind-the-meter hydrogen production in Hawaii

A 250kW hydrogen electrolysis facility was recently installed at the Natural Energy Laboratory of Hawaii Authority's (NELHA's) campus. This facility that will begin operation in 2020 to produce hydrogen for fuel cell buses on the island to demonstrate of the application of hydrogen to decarbonize transportation. Given the size of the electrolysis station, it has the potential to significantly increase electricity costs for the campus, which is subject to energy and peak demand charges from the local utility. In this paper, we analyze the cost of hydrogen production at NELHA given the rate structure options available from the utility. Production costs are estimated using optimal versus constant scheduling of the facility to meet the buses’ demand. A model of the electrolysis station is used to capture changes in production efficiency over the power range in the optimization routine. The effects of combining the station and campus load versus standalone operation and increasing solar generation are also explored. The analyses surrounding this scenario show the importance of multiple factors on the potential profitability of hydrogen production in behind-the-meter applications and show trends that could have implications for other similar installations.

08 HYDROGEN↗

On the Path to SunShot. Utility Regulatory and Business Model Reforms for Addressing the Financial Impacts of Distributed Solar on Utilities

Net-energy metering (NEM) has helped drive the rapid growth of distributed PV (DPV) but has raised concerns about electricity cost shifts, utility financial losses, and inefficient resource allocation. These concerns have motivated real and proposed reforms to utility regulatory and business models. This report explores the challenges and opportunities associated with such reforms in the context of the U.S. Department of Energy's SunShot Initiative. Most of the reforms to date address NEM concerns by reducing the benefits provided to DPV customers and thus constraining DPV deployment. Eliminating NEM nationwide, by compensating exports of PV electricity at wholesale rather than retail rates, could cut cumulative DPV deployment by 20% in 2050 compared with a continuation of current policies. This would slow the PV cost reductions that arise from larger scale and market certainty. It could also thwart achievement of the SunShot deployment goals even if the initiative's cost targets are achieved. This undesirable prospect is stimulating the development of alternative reform strategies that address concerns about distributed PV compensation without inordinately harming PV economics and growth. These alternatives fall into the categories of facilitating higher-value DPV deployment, broadening customer access to solar, and aligning utility profits and earnings with DPV. Specific strategies include utility ownership and financing of DPV, community solar, distribution network operators, services-driven utilities, performance-based incentives, enhanced utility system planning, pricing structures that incentivize high-value DPV configurations, and decoupling and other ratemaking reforms that reduce regulatory lag. These approaches represent near- and long-term solutions for preserving the legacy of the SunShot Initiative.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Modelling single atom catalysts for water splitting and fuel cells: A tutorial review

Here, in this tutorial review, we report the state-of-the-art of the modeling approaches of Single Atom Catalysts (SAC) for water splitting and fuel cells reactions. The discussion applies for Hydrogen Evolution Reaction (HER), Oxygen Reduction Reaction (OER), Hydrogen Oxidation Reaction (HOR), and Oxygen Reduction Reaction (ORR). The main scope of this work is to underline the relevant aspects of SACs modelling. On the one hand, the review could help computational chemists aiming to start the study of SACs. On the other hand, experimentalists could find the critical analysis of DFT results of interest to understand better the strengths and weaknesses of simulations, and how to interpret computational results. After an introductory section of SACs, we start by briefly presenting the state-of-the-art methodologies. Then, we analyze the critical aspects for a reliable prediction of the electronic properties, and we discuss the robustness of the structural models and ways to validate them. Furthermore, we discuss the main approaches to predict catalytic activity and selectivity, which is the final goal of the computational catalysis. We conclude this review with a critical analysis of the current challenges in the field, and the main limitations of the modeling approaches that are described.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

Surveys, simulation and single-cell assays relate function and phylogeny in a lake ecosystem

Much remains unknown about what drives microbial community structure and diversity. Highly structured environments might offer clues. For example, it may be possible to identify metabolically similar species as groups of organisms that correlate spatially with the geochemical processes they carry out. In this paper, we use a 16S ribosomal RNA gene survey in a lake that has chemical gradients across its depth to identify groups of spatially correlated but phylogenetically diverse organisms. Some groups had distributions across depth that aligned with the distributions of metabolic processes predicted by a biogeochemical model, suggesting that these groups performed biogeochemical functions. A single-cell genetic assay showed, however, that the groups associated with one biogeochemical process, sulfate reduction, contained only a few organisms that have the genes required to reduce sulfate. Finally, these results raise the possibility that some of these spatially correlated groups are consortia of phylogenetically diverse and metabolically different microbes that cooperate to carry out geochemical functions.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

The nature of interfaces and charge trapping sites in photocatalytic mixed-phase TiO{sub 2} from first principles modeling

Mixed phase rutile/anatase catalysts show increased reactivity compared with the pure phases alone. However, the mechanism causing this effect is not fully understood. The electronic properties of the interface and the relative energy of the electron in each phase play a key role in lowering the rate of recombination of electron hole pairs. Using density functional theory and the +U correction, we calculated the bands offsets between the phases taking into account the effect of the interface. Our model included several thousands atoms, and thus is a good representation of an interface between actual nanoparticles. We found rutile to have both higher conduction and valence band offsets than rutile, leading to an accumulation of electrons in the anatase phase accompanied by hole accumulation in the rutile phase. We also probed the electronic structure of our heterostructure and found a gap state caused by electrons localized in undercoordinated Ti atoms which were present within the interfacial region. Interfaces between bulk materials and between exposed surfaces both showed electron trapping at undercoordinated sites. These undercoordinated (typically four) atoms present localized electrons that could enable reduction reactions in the interfacial region, and could explain the increased reactivity of mixed-phase TiO{sub 2} photocatalyst materials.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Mirror monochromator

In this SBIR project, Electron Optica, Inc. (EOI) is developing a mirror electron monochromator (MirrorChrom) attachment to new and retrofitted electron microscopes (EMs) for improving the energy resolution of the EM from the characteristic range of 0.2-0.5 eV to the range of 10-50 meV. This improvement will enhance the characterization of materials by imaging and spectroscopy. In particular, the monochromator will refine the energy spectra characterizing materials, as obtained from transmission EMs [TEMs] fitted with electron spectrometers, and it will increase the spatial resolution of the images of materials taken with scanning EMs (SEMs) operated at low voltages. EOI’s MirrorChrom technology utilizes a magnetic prism to simultaneously deflect the electron beam off the axis of the microscope column by 90° and disperse the electrons in proportional to their energies into a module with an electron mirror and a knife-edge. The knife-edge cuts off the tails of the energy distribution to reduce the energy spread of the electrons that are reflected, and subsequently deflected, back into the microscope column. The knife-edge is less prone to contamination, and thereby charging, than the conventional slits used in existing monochromators, which improves the reliability and stability of the module. The overall design of the MirrorChrom exploits the symmetry inherent in reversing the electron trajectory in order to maintain the beam brightness – a parameter that impacts how well the electron beam can be focused downstream onto a sample. During phase I, EOI drafted a set of candidate monochromator architectures and evaluated the trade-offs between energy resolution and beam current to achieve the optimum design for three particular applications with market potential: increasing the spatial resolution of low voltage SEMs, increasing the energy resolution of low voltage TEMs (beam energy of 5-20 keV), and increasing the energy resolution of conventional TEMs (beam energy of 80-120 keV). Specialized software packages that have been developed by MEBS, Ltd. were used to calculate the electron optical properties of the key monochromator components: namely, the magnetic prism, the electron mirror, and the electron lenses. In the final step, these results were folded into a model describing the key electron-optical parameters of the complete monochromator. The simulations reveal that the mirror monochromator can reduce the energy spread of a Schottky electron source, an established electron emitter used widely in EMs, to 10 meV for practical beam current values and that further reduction of the energy spread down to 3 meV is possible for low current applications with a Cold Field Emitter (an electron source with 10x the brightness of a Schottky source). MirrorChroms can be designed and built to attach to different types of TEMs and SEMs, thus making them suitable for enhancing the study of the structure, composition, and bonding states of new materials at the nanoscale to advance material science research in the field of nanotechnology as well as biomedical research.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

Reference Model 5 (RM5): Oscillating Surge Wave Energy Converter

This report is an addendum to SAND2013-9040: Methodology for Design and Economic Analysis of Marine Energy Conversion (MEC) Technologies. This report describes an Oscillating Water Column Wave Energy Converter (OSWEC) reference model design in a complementary manner to Reference Models 1-4 contained in the above report. A conceptual design for a taut moored oscillating surge wave energy converter was developed. The design had an annual electrical power of 108 kilowatts (kW), rated power of 360 kW, and intended deployment at water depths between 50 m and 100 m. The study includes structural analysis, power output estimation, a hydraulic power conversion chain system, and mooring designs. The results were used to estimate device capital cost and annual operation and maintenance costs. The device performance and costs were used for the economic analysis, following the methodology presented in SAND2013-9040 that included costs for designing, manufacturing, deploying, and operating commercial-scale MEC arrays up to 100 devices. The levelized cost of energy estimated for the Reference Model 5 OSWEC, presented in this report, was for a single device and arrays of 10, 50, and 100 units, and it enabled the economic analysis to account for cost reductions associated with economies of scale. The baseline commercial levelized cost of energy estimate for the Reference Model 5 device in an array comprised of 10 units is $1.44/kilowatt-hour (kWh), and the value drops to approximately $0.69/kWh for an array of 100 units.

16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗

Mechanisms by which heat release affects the flow field in a chemically reacting, turbulent mixing layer

The mechanisms by which heat release affects the fluid dynamics in a turbulent reacting mixing layer are studied by direct numerical simulation. In agreement with previous laboratory experiments, the heat release is observed to lower the rate at which the mixing layer grows and to reduce the rate at which chemical products are formed. The baroclinic torque and thermal expansion in the mixing layer are shown to produce changes in the flame vortex structure that act to produce more diffuse vortices than in the constant density case, resulting in lower rotation rates of fluid elements. Previously unexplained anomalies observed in the mean velocity profiles of reacting jets and mixing layers are shown to result from vorticity generation by baroclinic torques. The density reductions also lower the generation rates of turbulent kinetic energy and the turbulent shear stresses, resulting in less turbulent mixing of fluid elements. Calculations of the energy in the various wave numbers show that the heat release has a stabilizing effect on the growth rates of individual modes. A linear stability analysis of a simlified model problem confirms this, showing that low density fluid in the mixing region will result in a shift of the frequency of the unstable modes to lower wave numbers (longer wavelengths). The growth rates of the unstable modes decrease, contributing to the slower growth of the mixing layer.

Riley, J. J.↗

Stochastic Simulation of Mudcrack Damage Formation in an Environmental Barrier Coating

The FEAMAC/CARES program, which integrates finite element analysis (FEA) with the MAC/GMC (Micromechanics Analysis Code with Generalized Method of Cells) and the CARES/Life (Ceramics Analysis and Reliability Evaluation of Structures / Life Prediction) programs, was used to simulate the formation of mudcracks during the cooling of a multilayered environmental barrier coating (EBC) deposited on a silicon carbide substrate. FEAMAC/CARES combines the MAC/GMC multiscale micromechanics analysis capability (primarily developed for composite materials) with the CARES/Life probabilistic multiaxial failure criteria (developed for brittle ceramic materials) and Abaqus (Dassault Systèmes) FEA. In this report, elastic modulus reduction of randomly damaged finite elements was used to represent discrete cracking events. The use of many small-sized low-aspect-ratio elements enabled the formation of crack boundaries, leading to development of mudcrack-patterned damage. Finite element models of a disk-shaped three-dimensional specimen and a twodimensional model of a through-the-thickness cross section subjected to progressive cooling from 1,300 °C to an ambient temperature of 23 °C were made. Mudcrack damage in the coating resulted from the buildup of residual tensile stresses between the individual material constituents because of thermal expansion mismatches between coating layers and the substrate. A two-parameter Weibull distribution characterized the coating layer stochastic strength response and allowed the effect of the Weibull modulus on the formation of damage and crack segmentation lengths to be studied. The spontaneous initiation of cracking and crack coalescence resulted in progressively smaller mudcrack cells as cooling progressed, consistent with a fractal-behaved fracture pattern. Other failure modes such as delamination, and possibly spallation, could also be reproduced. The physical basis assumed and the heuristic approach employed, which involves a simple stochastic cellular automaton methodology to approximate the crack growth process, are described. The results ultimately show that a selforganizing mudcrack formation can derive from a Weibull distribution that is used to describe the stochastic strength response of the bulk brittle ceramic material layers of an EBC.

Nemeth, Noel N.↗

Calculation of narrower confidence intervals for tree mortality rates when we know nothing but the location of the death/survival events

Abstract Many ecological applications, like the study of mortality rates, require the estimation of proportions and confidence intervals for them. The traditional way of doing this applies the binomial distribution, which describes the outcome of a series of Bernoulli trials. This distribution assumes that observations are independent and the probability of success is the same for all the individual observations. Both assumptions are obviously false in many cases. I show how to apply bootstrap and the Poisson binomial distribution (a generalization of the binomial distribution) to the estimation of proportions. Any information at the individual level would result in better (narrower) confidence intervals around the estimation of proportions. As a case study, I applied this method to the calculation of mortality rates in a forest plot of tropical trees in Lambir Hills National Park, Malaysia. I calculated central estimates and 95% confidence intervals for species‐level mortality rates for 1,007 tree species. I used a very simple model of spatial dependence in survival to estimate individual‐level risk of mortality. The results obtained by accounting for heterogeneity in individual‐level risk of mortality were comparable to those obtained with the binomial distribution in terms of central estimates, but the precision increased in virtually all cases, with an average reduction in the width of the confidence interval of ~20%. Spatial information allows the estimation of individual‐level probabilities of survival, and this increases the precision in the estimates of mortality rates. The general method described here, with modifications, could be applied to reduce uncertainty in the estimation of proportions related to any spatially structured phenomenon with two possible outcomes. More sophisticated approaches can yield better estimates of individual‐level mortality and thus narrower confidence intervals.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

AIMD‐Based Protocols for Modeling Exciplex Fluorescence Spectra and Inter‐System Crossing in Photocatalytic Chromophores

ABSTRACT This study introduces a computational protocol for modeling the emission spectra of exciplexes using excited‐state ab initio molecular dynamics (AIMD) simulations. The protocol is applied to a model exciplex formed by oligo‐p‐phenylenes (OPPs) and triethylamine (TEA), which is of interest in the context of photocatalytic reduction of . AIMD facilitates efficient sampling of the conformational space of OPP3 and OPP4 exciplexes with TEA, offering a dynamic alternative to previously employed static methods. The AIMD‐based protocol successfully reproduces experimental emission spectra for OPP‐TEA exciplexes, agreeing with previous computational and experimental findings. The results show that AIMD simulations provide an efficient means of sampling the conformational space of these exciplexes, requiring less user input and, in some instances, fewer computational resources than multiple excited‐state optimizations initiated from user‐specified initial structures. The study also evaluates the yield of intersystem crossing (ISC) using AIMD and Landau‐Zener probability. The results suggest that ISC is a minor decay channel for OPP3 and OPP4. This work provides new insights into the structural flexibility and emission characteristics of OPP‐TEA photoredox catalyst systems, potentially contributing to improved design strategies for organic chromophores in reduction applications.

Giudetti, Goran [Department of Chemistry Universit↗

Redirection of the spherical expanding shock wave on the interface with plasma

We study a strong spherical expanding shock wave interacting with the finite-gradient interface between neutral cold gas and weakly ionized plasma. We want to see how the interaction with the interface can alter the shock structure compared to the case of its free propagation through the media with the exponentially varying density. From our comparative calculations based on the 2D model, we found substantial difference in the shock structure including strong deformation of the shock front followed with its gradual flattening and the redirection in its propagation. There are a number of factors that can be used to control this phenomenon in order to strengthen or lessen the effect. The calculations can be made on any scale, limited with the requirement for the shock wave to be strong. The study points at the possibility in certain applications to avoid the shock wave with its redirection rather than attenuation. The results can be applicable to optimization of the energy deposition into the supersonic flux, the drag reduction in hypersonic flight, in the detonation theory, and combustion through the control of the ignition conditions, and for environmental improvements through sonic boom reduction. Cartesian coordinates were used in order to visualize the phenomenon.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗