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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 1,675 records · Page 93
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2015

Structure Learning and Statistical Estimation in Distribution Networks - Part I

Traditionally power distribution networks are either not observable or only partially observable. This complicates development and implementation of new smart grid technologies, such as those related to demand response, outage detection and management, and improved load-monitoring. In this two part paper, inspired by proliferation of the metering technology, we discuss estimation problems in structurally loopy but operationally radial distribution grids from measurements, e.g. voltage data, which are either already available or can be made available with a relatively minor investment. In Part I, the objective is to learn the operational layout of the grid. Part II of this paper presents algorithms that estimate load statistics or line parameters in addition to learning the grid structure. Further, Part II discusses the problem of structure estimation for systems with incomplete measurement sets. Our newly suggested algorithms apply to a wide range of realistic scenarios. The algorithms are also computationally efficient – polynomial in time– which is proven theoretically and illustrated computationally on a number of test cases. The technique developed can be applied to detect line failures in real time as well as to understand the scope of possible adversarial attacks on the grid.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2015

A Statistical Perspective on Highly Accelerated Testing

Highly accelerated life testing has been heavily promoted at Sandia (and elsewhere) as a means to rapidly identify product weaknesses caused by flaws in the product's design or manufacturing process. During product development, a small number of units are forced to fail at high stress. The failed units are then examined to determine the root causes of failure. The identification of the root causes of product failures exposed by highly accelerated life testing can instigate changes to the product's design and/or manufacturing process that result in a product with increased reliability. It is widely viewed that this qualitative use of highly accelerated life testing (often associated with the acronym HALT) can be useful. However, highly accelerated life testing has also been proposed as a quantitative means for "demonstrating" the reliability of a product where unreliability is associated with loss of margin via an identified and dominating failure mechanism. It is assumed that the dominant failure mechanism can be accelerated by changing the level of a stress factor that is assumed to be related to the dominant failure mode. In extreme cases, a minimal number of units (often from a pre-production lot) are subjected to a single highly accelerated stress relative to normal use. If no (or, sufficiently few) units fail at this high stress level, some might claim that a certain level of reliability has been demonstrated (relative to normal use conditions). Underlying this claim are assumptions regarding the level of knowledge associated with the relationship between the stress level and the probability of failure. The primary purpose of this document is to discuss (from a statistical perspective) the efficacy of using accelerated life testing protocols (and, in particular, "highly accelerated" protocols) to make quantitative inferences concerning the performance of a product (e.g., reliability) when in fact there is lack-of-knowledge and uncertainty concerning the assumed relationship between the stress level and performance. In addition, this document contains recommendations for conducting more informative accelerated tests.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2016

Statistical Modeling Efforts for Headspace Gas

The purpose of this document is to describe the statistical modeling effort for gas concentrations in WIPP storage containers. The concentration (in ppm) of CO 2 in the headspace volume of standard waste box (SWB) 68685 is shown. A Bayesian approach and an adaptive Metropolis-Hastings algorithm were used.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2016

Final Report, DOE Early Career Award: Predictive modeling of complex physical systems: new tools for statistical inference, uncertainty quantification, and experimental design

Predictive simulation of complex physical systems increasingly rests on the interplay of experimental observations with computational models. Key inputs, parameters, or structural aspects of models may be incomplete or unknown, and must be developed from indirect and limited observations. At the same time, quantified uncertainties are needed to qualify computational predictions in the support of design and decision-making. In this context, Bayesian statistics provides a foundation for inference from noisy and limited data, but at prohibitive computional expense. This project intends to make rigorous predictive modeling *feasible* in complex physical systems, via accelerated and scalable tools for uncertainty quantification, Bayesian inference, and experimental design. Specific objectives are as follows: 1. Develop adaptive posterior approximations and dimensionality reduction approaches for Bayesian inference in high-dimensional nonlinear systems. 2. Extend accelerated Bayesian methodologies to large-scale {\em sequential} data assimilation, fully treating nonlinear models and non-Gaussian state and parameter distributions. 3. Devise efficient surrogate-based methods for Bayesian model selection and the learning of model structure. 4. Develop scalable simulation/optimization approaches to nonlinear Bayesian experimental design, for both parameter inference and model selection. 5. Demonstrate these inferential tools on chemical kinetic models in reacting flow, constructing and refining thermochemical and electrochemical models from limited data. Demonstrate Bayesian filtering on canonical stochastic PDEs and in the dynamic estimation of inhomogeneous subsurface properties and flow fields.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2014

Topology for Statistical Modeling of Petascale Data

This document presents current technical progress and dissemination of results for the Mathematics for Analysis of Petascale Data (MAPD) project titled "Topology for Statistical Modeling of Petascale Data", funded by the Office of Science Advanced Scientific Computing Research (ASCR) Applied Math program.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2016

Comparison of Statistical Methods for Detector Testing Programs

A typical goal for any detector testing program is to ascertain not only the performance of the detector systems under test, but also the confidence that systems accepted using that testing program’s acceptance criteria will exceed a minimum acceptable performance (which is usually expressed as the minimum acceptable success probability, p). A similar problem often arises in statistics, where we would like to ascertain the fraction, p, of a population of items that possess a property that may take one of two possible values. Typically, the problem is approached by drawing a fixed sample of size n, with the number of items out of n that possess the desired property, x, being termed successes. The sample mean gives an estimate of the population mean p ≈ x/n, although usually it is desirable to accompany such an estimate with a statement concerning the range within which p may fall and the confidence associated with that range. Procedures for establishing such ranges and confidence limits are described in detail by Clopper, Brown, and Agresti for two-sided symmetric confidence intervals.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2017

Evolution in Cloud Population Statistics of the MJO: From AMIE Field Observations to Global-Cloud Permitting Models Final Report

This is a multi-institutional, collaborative project using a three-tier modeling approach to bridge field observations and global cloud-permitting models, with emphases on cloud population structural evolution through various large-scale environments. Our contribution was in data analysis for the generation of high value cloud and precipitation products and derive cloud statistics for model validation. There are two areas in data analysis that we contributed: the development of a synergistic cloud and precipitation cloud classification that identify different cloud (e.g. shallow cumulus, cirrus) and precipitation types (shallow, deep, convective, stratiform) using profiling ARM observations and the development of a quantitative precipitation rate retrieval algorithm using profiling ARM observations. Similar efforts have been developed in the past for precipitation (weather radars), but not for the millimeter-wavelength (cloud) radar deployed at the ARM sites.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2017

Statistical Framework for Planning a Component Shelf Life Program.

This document outlines a statistical framework for establishing a shelf-life program for components whose performance is measured by the value of a continuous variable such as voltage or function time. The approach applies to both single measurement devices and repeated measurement devices, although additional process control charts may be useful in the case of repeated measurements. The approach is to choose a sample size that protects the margin associated with a particular variable over the life of the component. Deviations from expected performance of the measured variable are detected prior to the complete loss of margin. This ensures the reliability of the component over its lifetime.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗
DOE OSTI2016

The STAT7 Code for Statistical Propagation of Uncertainties In Steady-State Thermal Hydraulics Analysis of Plate-Fueled Reactors

The STAT code was written to automate many of the steady-state thermal hydraulic safety calculations for the MIT research reactor, both for conversion of the reactor from high enrichment uranium fuel to low enrichment uranium fuel and for future fuel re-loads after the conversion. A Monte-Carlo statistical propagation approach is used to treat uncertainties in important parameters in the analysis. These safety calculations are ultimately intended to protect against high fuel plate temperatures due to critical heat flux or departure from nucleate boiling or onset of flow instability; but additional margin is obtained by basing the limiting safety settings on avoiding onset of nucleate boiling. STAT7 can simultaneously analyze all of the axial nodes of all of the fuel plates and all of the coolant channels for one stripe of a fuel element. The stripes run the length of the fuel, from the bottom to the top. Power splits are calculated for each axial node of each plate to determine how much of the power goes out each face of the plate. By running STAT7 multiple times, full core analysis has been performed by analyzing the margin to ONB for each axial node of each stripe of each plate of each element in the core.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗
DOE OSTI2017

Scalability of Several Asynchronous Many-Task Models for In Situ Statistical Analysis.

This report is a sequel to [PB16], in which we provided a first progress report on research and development towards a scalable, asynchronous many-task, in situ statistical analysis engine using the Legion runtime system. This earlier work included a prototype implementation of a proposed solution, using a proxy mini-application as a surrogate for a full-scale scientific simulation code. The first scalability studies were conducted with the above on modestly-sized experimental clusters. In contrast, in the current work we have integrated our in situ analysis engines with a full-size scientific application (S3D, using the Legion-SPMD model), and have conducted nu- merical tests on the largest computational platform currently available for DOE science ap- plications. We also provide details regarding the design and development of a light-weight asynchronous collectives library. We describe how this library is utilized within our SPMD- Legion S3D workflow, and compare the data aggregation technique deployed herein to the approach taken within our previous work.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2017

RCT: Module 2.03, Counting Errors and Statistics, Course 8768

Radiological sample analysis involves the observation of a random process that may or may not occur and an estimation of the amount of radioactive material present based on that observation. Across the country, radiological control personnel are using the activity measurements to make decisions that may affect the health and safety of workers at those facilities and their surrounding environments. This course will present an overview of measurement processes, a statistical evaluation of both measurements and equipment performance, and some actions to take to minimize the sources of error in count room operations. This course will prepare the student with the skills necessary for radiological control technician (RCT) qualification by passing quizzes, tests, and the RCT Comprehensive Phase 1, Unit 2 Examination (TEST 27566) and by providing in the field skills.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
DOE OSTI2017

Image Statistics

In large datasets, it is time consuming or even impossible to pick out interesting images. Our proposed solution is to find statistics to quantify the information in each image and use those to identify and pick out images of interest.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2017

Using Statistical Analysis Software to Advance Nitro Plasticizer Wettability

Statistical analysis in science is an extremely powerful tool that is often underutilized. Additionally, it is frequently the case that data is misinterpreted or not used to its fullest extent. Utilizing the advanced software JMP®, many aspects of experimental design and data analysis can be evaluated and improved. This overview will detail the features of JMP® and how they were used to advance a project, resulting in time and cost savings, as well as the collection of scientifically sound data. The project analyzed in this report addresses the inability of a nitro plasticizer to coat a gold coated quartz crystal sensor used in a quartz crystal microbalance. Through the use of the JMP® software, the wettability of the nitro plasticizer was increased by over 200% using an atmospheric plasma pen, ensuring good sample preparation and reliable results.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2016

Evolution in Cloud Population Statistics of the MJO: From AMIE Field Observations to Global Cloud-Permiting Models

Motivated by the success of the AMIE/DYNAMO field campaign, which collected unprecedented observations of cloud and precipitation from the tropical Indian Ocean in Octber 2011 – March 2012, this project explored how such observations can be applied to assist the development of global cloud-permitting models through evaluating and correcting model biases in cloud statistics. The main accomplishment of this project were made in four categories: generating observational products for model evaluation, using AMIE/DYNAMO observations to validate global model simulations, using AMIE/DYNAMO observations in numerical studies of cloud-permitting models, and providing leadership in the field. Results from this project provide valuable information for building a seamless bridge between DOE ASR program’s component on process level understanding of cloud processes in the tropics and RGCM focus on global variability and regional extremes. In particular, experience gained from this project would be directly applicable to evaluation and improvements of ACME, especially as it transitions to a non-hydrostatic variable resolution model.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2018

Statistical Methods for Improved Evaluation of Environmental Sample Data quarterly FY18Q2

We will develop an enhanced statistical framework to evaluate environmental swipe samples collected at nuclear facilities with the goal of identifying anomalies associated with potential undeclared activities. Our approach will be based on Bayesian methodology and time series analysis. This overall framework should result in a more cost effective and operationally effective approach to environmental swipe sample analysis and interpretation.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2018

Transport in Random Media With Inhomogeneous Mixing Statistics

The Levermore-Pomraning (LP) model has been investigated for use in implicit Monte Carlo (IMC) algorithms to describe thermal photon transport computations in stochastically mixed cells with material energy coupling. For purely absorbing non-emitting materials, the LP-model is known to predict the exact material averaged fluxes when the mixing statistics are Markovian. In the presence of scattering or reemmission, or if the mixing is non-Markovian, the LP-model is approximate and has greatly diminished accuracy for optically thick, highly scattering materials. Nevertheless, the model enables a robust extension of the simple atomic mix approximation to accommodate spatial correlation effects through well characterized parameters such as mean chord lengths. In this work, we construct exact analytical solutions of the LP-equations for piecewise constant spatial variation of the material chord lengths. It is not possible in general to obtain closed form solutions when the chord lengths are continuous functions of space, although we briefly examine special conditions under which this is feasible. However, by allowing an arbitrarily fine spatial segmentation of the medium it is possible to construct highly refined solutions to fit desired spatial chord length profiles. Material volume fractions that are consistent with the chord lengths are first constructed by solving the associated Chapmann-Kolmogorov equations and applied to obtain the material averaged fluxes in two settings: when the materials are purely absorbing, and when scattering is present in rod model geometry. Illustrative numerical results for the volume fractions and material averaged fluxes are obtained by implementing the algorithms in MATLAB for spatially linear and quadratic variations of the chord lengths.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2018

Evaluation of statistical variation of microstructural properties and temperature effects on creep fracture of Grade 91

This report describes three improvements made to a physically-based model for creep and creep rupture in Grade 91 steel developed as part of the Advanced Reactor Technologies program: 1. Progress on transitioning the model framework to the MOOSE finite element package to improve parallel scalability, increase the physical size of the simulations, and incorporate multiphysics effects into the model. 2. The development of a physically-based method of scaling the model parameters to accurately capture creep in Grade 91 for temperatures in the range of 450° to 500° C. 3. Extending the model to account for microstructural statistical variations, specifically capturing the effect of grain boundary energy on the physical parameters underling the model for grain boundary void nucleation and cavitation. Put together, these improvements result in an accurate, predictive model for the physical response of Grade 91 steel over the expected use temperature range for the material in future liquid metal cooled fast reactors. The model can be used to more accurately predict engineering properties of the material for very long service lives, which could lead to safer, more economical future advanced reactors.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗