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At least 1,675 records · Page 93

A Robust Machine Learning Schema for Developing, Maintaining, and Disseminating Machine Learning Models

Recent advances in the development of machine learning (ML) algorithms have enabled the creation of predictive models that can improve decision making, decrease computational cost, and improve efficiency in a variety of fields. As an organization begins to develop and implement such models, the data used in the training, validation, and testing of ML models, the model parameters, and the use cases or limitations of the models must be properly stored to ensure models are both fully traceable and used correctly. In the context of predicting material behavior, advances in computationally intense, physics-based modeling of material behavior at various length scales and the emergence of Integrated Computational Materials Engineering (ICME) have driven the need for developing data-driven surrogate models of the physics-based simulation tools using ML techniques. Surrogate model development allows for accurate material behavior prediction at a fraction of the cost of its physics-based counterpart, allowing for multiscale simulations of real-world applications, further enabling the ability to design fit-for-purpose materials for a reasonable computational investment. However, training such models requires extensive data, and thus, effective data management is necessary to reach the full potential that ML can offer to material design and ICME. This paper proposes a generalized, robust schema that allows organizations to store both real (experimental) and virtual (simulation) data used to train ML models and the defining model parameters and architectures within the Granta MI Platform. The developed schema allows for various types of data inputs and outputs, including single point values, time-series data, and images that can be used in the prediction of material behavior, while following outlined best practices for effective data management. An effective schema for ML data and models can help prevent the recreation of virtual/real training data and surrogate models, help reduce the time to create new models similar to existing ones by offering a starting point in the hyperparameter determination stages, minimize resources devoted to verification and validation (V&V) and certification of models, and ensure that data and surrogate models are not misused due to full traceability of both the data and ML model. It also allows organizations access to models that have already been developed, such that they can be used in the design of new materials, enabling the overall goals of ICME.

Brandon L. Hearley↗

A Robust Schema for Storing and Managing Machine Learning Data and Models

- Machine Learning (ML) has enabled models that can improve efficiency and decrease computational cost - ML models are crucial in enabling Integrated Computational Materials Engineering (ICME) - Large data sets require robust means of storing ML data and models

Brandon L. Hearley↗

Robust Vision-based Multi-spacecraft Guidance Navigation and Control using CNN-based Pose Estimation

In this paper, we present an end-to-end simulation framework for tracking an uncooperative Target spacecraft in Low Earth Orbit using a CubeSat-class Ego spacecraft outfitted with a camera. Currently, capturing high-fidelity realistic images in space for this scenario is difficult and exorbitantly expensive. Therefore, we developed a framework to simulate the spacecraft orbits in Basilisk software and generate high-fidelity realistic images of spacecraft in Unreal Engine, including the effects from Sun, Earth, Moon and stars. The Ego spacecraft uses cameras to capture images of the uncooperative Target and estimates its position and attitude using a CNN based 6DOF pose estimation pipeline, eliminating need for large SWAP-C(Size, Weight, Power and Cost) sensors like LIDAR or reliance on inter-spacecraft communication, This CNN, which is motivated by ESA’s Pose Estimation challenge of 2019, is trained using simulated data from our end-to-end simulation framework. We compare the performance of two distinct CNNbased algorithms for pose estimation along a nominal trajectory. In presence of non-Gaussian modeling uncertainties, the statedependent estimation error is characterized with a quadratic upper-bound. The quadratically-bounded error can be used by a robust controller to maneuver

Rahmani, Amir↗

Best Practices for the Design, Development, and Operation of Robust and Reliable Space Vehicle Guidance, Navigation, and Control Systems

This document summarizes and updates the NESC Guidance, Navigation, and Control (GN&C) Technical Discipline Team’s (TDT) work to synthesize and document the current best practices for the design & development of robust and reliable GN&C systems for robotic and crewed (human-rated) spacecraft. These GN&C best practices for future science and exploration missions were derived from the lessons learned, both positive and negative, on earlier spaceflight projects, both robotic and crewed. An attempt has been made to capture preferred practices that reflect the key considerations, trades, and processes directly attributed to past mission success.

Guidance, Navigation, and Control↗

A Robust Hybrid Deep Learning Model for Spatiotemporal Image Fusion

Dense time-series remote sensing data with detailed spatial information are highly desired for the monitoring of dynamic earth systems. Due to the sensor tradeoff, most remote sensing systems cannot provide images with both high spatial and temporal resolutions. Spatiotemporal image fusion models provide a feasible solution to generate such a type of satellite imagery, yet existing fusion methods are limited in predicting rapid and/or transient phenological changes. Additionally, a systematic approach to assessing and understanding how varying levels of temporal phenological changes affect fusion results is lacking in spatiotemporal fusion research. The objective of this study is to develop an innovative hybrid deep learning model that can effectively and robustly fuse the satellite imagery of various spatial and temporal resolutions. The proposed model integrates two types of network models: super-resolution convolutional neural network (SRCNN) and long short-term memory (LSTM). SRCNN can enhance the coarse images by restoring degraded spatial details, while LSTM can learn and extract the temporal changing patterns from the time-series images. To systematically assess the effects of varying levels of phenological changes, we identify image phenological transition dates and design three temporal phenological change scenarios representing rapid, moderate, and minimal phenological changes. The hybrid deep learning model, alongside three benchmark fusion models, is assessed in different scenarios of phenological changes. Results indicate the hybrid deep learning model yields significantly better results when rapid or moderate phenological changes are present. It holds great potential in generating high-quality time-series datasets of both high spatial and temporal resolutions, which can further benefit terrestrial system dynamic studies. The innovative approach to understanding phenological changes’ effect will help us better comprehend the strengths and weaknesses of current and future fusion models.

spatiotemporal fusion↗

Robustness of Observing System Simulation Experiments

Observing System Simulation Experiments (OSSEs) are used to investigate the potential performance of proposed new instruments on numerical weather prediction (NWP). As OSSEs involve a framework in which the atmosphere and observations are all completely simulated, it is necessary to perform validation of the OSSE to ensure that it is sufficiently realistic to provide useful experimental results. A common issue that affects the forecast skill and observation impacts is the tendency of OSSEs to have insufficient model error compared to NWP in the real world. In this work, two versions of the National Aeronautics and Space Administration Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (NASA/GMAO) NWP OSSE framework are compared, with the newer framework having more simulated forecast model error than the older framework due to changes to the NWP system. The performance of the updated OSSE is validated against corresponding behavior of the same NWP system in the real world in terms of the simulated observations, the analysis increments, forecast error, and observation impacts. OSSE results of analysis and forecast impacts for three proposed new observation systems are also compared between the older and newer frameworks to evaluate the robustness of the OSSE experiments and the role of model error in observation impacts. These three new instruments are the Geostationary eXtended Observations (GeoXO) hyperspectral infrared sounder (GXS), the Midwave Infrared Sounding of Temperature and humidity in a Constellation for Winds (MISTiC Winds) atmospheric motion vectors, and additional Global Navigation Satellite System Radio Occultations (GNSS-RO).

Observing System Simulation Experiments↗

Leveraging Multi-Primary PS-InSAR Configurations for the Robust Estimation of Coastal Subsidence

InSAR is a key technique used to constrain contributions of diverse processes to coastal subsidence, also known as vertical land motion (VLM). However, coastal environments can pose major challenges for InSAR due to natural disturbances that degrade interferogram quality. We describe a new multi-primary pairing strategy for persistent scatterer InSAR (PS-InSAR) to estimate subsidence in challenging coastal environments. Our method retains only consistent PS candidates across multiprimary substacks and solves for redundant velocity observations using SVD-based inversion, similar to the conventional small baseline subset (SBAS) method. Through simulations and a case study comparing with single-primary PS-InSAR and conventional SBAS techniques, we show that our pairing strategy reduces temporal and spatial uncertainty in subsidence estimates in the presence of strong but temporary decorrelation loss, even with increased distance from the reference point. Moreover, our method visibly dampens time-series variation and decreases standard error in our time series fit by nearly 2x in our case study. Thus, we find that implementing a multi-primary PS-InSAR configuration is a simple method of increasing the robustness of VLM estimates in challenging coastal environments.

Persistent scatterer InSAR↗

Automation of the ICME Workflow Incorporating Material Digital Twins at Different Length Scales Within a Robust Information Management System

Recent successes in Integrated Computational Materials Engineering (ICME) have demonstrated the potential in designing ‘fit-for-purpose’ materials for a given application in a cost and time efficient manner. However, the material design process must contain a level of judicious automation in the material decision process; that is implementing some optimization algorithms to truly enable the benefits of ICME, particularly when considering materials at multiple length and time scales. Furthermore, the ability to effectively store developed material models, experimental data used for validation, and link models at multiple length and time scales must be implemented to ensure traceability across the material design process, such that the data gathered can be leveraged towards efficient material design. To enable such an optimization scheme a robust framework must exist: (1) that can capture changes made at a given length scale, (2) automatically propagate changes upstream to the highest scale, and (3) evaluate the material’s performance at the structural level. In this work, a developed framework for tracking material changes, automatically running the necessary simulations to determine the properties at the next highest scale, and saving each iteration of the design process to maintain the application’s digital thread is presented for polymer matrix composites (PMCs). The Automated Information Management Across Organizations and Scales (AIMAOS) program offers users an interactive graphical user interface (GUI) for defining constituent materials, building lamina and laminates, and applying effective laminate properties to finite element and composite optimization third party software. At each length scale, the necessary input files are automatically written, and subsequent analysis tools are called to solve for effective properties at the next scale, which are then read by the AIMAOS tool and displayed to the user. As changes are made to the material at lower length scales, information is automatically propagated upstream to higher length scales, and changes made are automatically tracked and versioned to maintain traceability during the design process. The AIMAOS tools serves as the first step in enabling optimized design of composites from the nano to the macroscale for a given application.

Brandon L Hearley↗

Robust Trajectory Optimization for NRHO Rendezvous Using SPICE Kernel Relative Motion

In this paper, robust optimization is performed on trajectory correction maneuvers during the lunar lander return phase of an Artemis mission, treating the trajectory from one hour after low lunar orbit departure to arrival in the vicinity of the lunar Gateway as a relative motion problem. To enable rapid stochastic optimization techniques requiring many candidate trajectories, SPICE kernel relative motion as implemented by the Quadratic Interpolated State Transition (QIST) system is used as the underlying dynamics propagation. The optimization is performed with a genetic optimizer using linear covariance (LinCov) software in a simplified operational context, taking into account the availability of navigation sensors with varying measurement models, ranges, and accuracies. No numerical integration is used, since the relative motion around Gateway is fully characterized with the a priori computation of the QIST coefficients. Maneuver placements are computed to optimize the minimum 3σ delta-v of the trajectory, the position dispersion at a target point, and a convex combination of these two metrics. An order of magnitude runtime improvement is provided over legacy methods with less than 10% error introduced. All QIST results are shown to be in-family with legacy methods. The tradespace for optimal delta-v design is found to range from 77.0 to 93.9 m/s, while the range of optimal dispersion is between 1.4 and 11.7 km.

Relative Motion↗

ROBUSTNESS OF DECISION INSIGHTS UNDER ALTERNATIVE ALEATORY/EPISTEMIC UNCERTAINTY CLASSIFICATIONS

The Risk-Informed Safety Margin Characterization (RISMC) pathway is a set of activities defined under the U.S. Department of Energy Light Water Reactor Sustainability Program. The overarching objective of RISMC is to support plant life-extension decision-making by providing a state-of-knowledge characterization of safety margins in key systems, structures, and components (SSCs). A key technical challenge is to establish the conceptual and technical feasibility of analyzing safety margin in a risk-informed way, which, unlike conventionally defined deterministic margin analysis, would be founded on probabilistic characterizations of SSC performance. Evaluation of probabilistic safety margins will in general entail the uncertainty characterization both of the prospective challenge to the performance of an SSC ("load") and of its "capacity" to withstand that challenge. The RISMC framework contrasts sharply with the traditional probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) structure in that the underlying models are not inherently aleatory. Rather, they are largely deterministic physical/engineering models with ambiguities about the appropriate uncertainty classification of many model parameters. The current analysis demonstrates that if the distinction between epistemic and aleatory uncertainties is to be preserved in a RISMC-like modeling environment, then it is unlikely that analysis insights supporting decision-making will in general be robust under recategorization of input uncertainties. If it is believed there is a true conceptual distinction between epistemic and aleatory uncertainty (as opposed to the distinction being primarily a legacy of the PRA paradigm) then a consistent and defensible basis must be established by which to categorize input uncertainties.

probabilistic risk assessment↗

Integrated Process Monitoring based on Systems of Sensors for Enhanced Nuclear Safeguards Sensitivity and Robustness

This paper illustrates safeguards benefits that process monitoring (PM) can have as a diversion deterrent and as a complementary safeguards measure to nuclear material accountancy (NMA). In order to infer the possible existence of proliferation-driven activities, the objective of NMA-based methods is often to statistically evaluate materials unaccounted for (MUF) computed by solving a given mass balance equation related to a material balance area (MBA) at every material balance period (MBP), a particular objective for a PM-based approach may be to statistically infer and evaluate anomalies unaccounted for (AUF) that may have occurred within a MBP. Although possibly being indicative of proliferation-driven activities, the detection and tracking of anomaly patterns is not trivial because some executed events may be unobservable or unreliably observed as others. The proposed similarity between NMA- and PM-based approaches is important as performance metrics utilized for evaluating NMA-based methods, such as detection probability (DP) and false alarm probability (FAP), can also be applied for assessing PM-based safeguards solutions. To this end, AUF count estimates can be translated into significant quantity (SQ) equivalents that may have been diverted within a given MBP. A diversion alarm is reported if this mass estimate is greater than or equal to the selected value for alarm level (AL), appropriately chosen to optimize DP and FAP based on the particular characteristics of the monitored MBA, the sensors utilized, and the data processing method employed for integrating and analyzing collected measurements. To illustrate the application of the proposed PM approach, a protracted diversion of Pu in a waste stream was selected based on incomplete fuel dissolution in a dissolver unit operation, as this diversion scenario is considered to be problematic for detection using NMA-based methods alone. Results demonstrate benefits of conducting PM under a system-centric strategy that utilizes data collected from a system of sensors and that effectively exploits known characterizations of sensors and facility operations in order to significantly improve anomaly detection, reduce false alarm, and enhance assessment robustness under unreliable partial sensor information.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

A Robust In-Situ Warp-Correction Algorithm For VISAR Streak Camera Data at the National Ignition Facility

The National Ignition Facility (NIF) at the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory is a 192-beam pulsed laser system for high-energy-density physics experiments. Sophisticated diagnostics have been designed around key performance metrics to achieve ignition. The Velocity Interferometer System for Any Reflector (VISAR) is the primary diagnostic for measuring the timing of shocks induced into an ignition capsule. The VISAR system utilizes three streak cameras; these streak cameras are inherently nonlinear and require warp corrections to remove these nonlinear effects. A detailed calibration procedure has been developed with National Security Technologies (NSTec) and applied to the camera correction analysis in production. However, the camera nonlinearities drift over time, affecting the performance of this method. An in-situ fiber array is used to inject a comb of pulses to generate a calibration correction in order to meet the timing accuracy requirements of VISAR. We develop a robust algorithm for the analysis of the comb calibration images to generate the warp correction that is then applied to the data images. Our algorithm utilizes the method of thin-plate splines (TPS) to model the complex nonlinear distortions in the streak camera data. In this paper, we focus on the theory and implementation of the TPS warp-correction algorithm for the use in a production environment.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Robust Measurement of Thin-Film Photovoltaic Modules Exhibiting Light-Induced Transients: Preprint

Light-induced changes to the current-voltage characteristic of thin-film photovoltaic modules (i.e. light-soaking effects) frustrate the repeatable measurement of their operating power. We describe best practices for mitigating, or stabilizing, light-soaking effects for both CdTe and CIGS modules to enable robust, repeatable, and relevant power measurements. We motivate the practices by detailing how modules react to changes in different stabilization methods. We also describe and demonstrate a method for validating alternative stabilization procedures, such as those relying on forward bias in the dark. Reliable measurements of module power are critical for qualification testing, reliability testing, and power rating.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Definition of a Robust Supervisory Control Scheme for Sodium-Cooled Fast Reactors

In this work, an innovative control approach for metal-fueled Sodium-cooled Fast Reactors is proposed. With respect to the classical approach adopted for base-load Nuclear Power Plants, an alternative control strategy for operating the reactor at different power levels by respecting the system physical constraints is presented. In order to achieve a higher operational flexibility along with ensuring that the implemented control loops do not influence the system inherent passive safety features, a dedicated supervisory control scheme for the dynamic definition of the corresponding set-points to be supplied to the PID controllers is designed. In particular, the traditional approach based on the adoption of tabulated lookup tables for the set-point definition is found not to be robust enough when failures of the implemented SISO (Single Input Single Output) actuators occur. Therefore, a feedback algorithm based on the Reference Governor approach, which allows for the optimization of reference signals according to the system operating conditions, is proposed.

Sodium-cooled Fast Reactors, Supervisory control s↗

Robust Ceramic Coaxial Cable Down-Hole Sensors for Long-Term In Situ Monitoring of Geologic CO 2 Injection and Storage

Energy generation by use of fossil fuels produces large volumes of CO 2 and other greenhouse gases, whose accumulation in the atmosphere is widely seen as undesirable. CO 2 Capture followed by sequestration has been identified as the solution. Subsurface geologic formations offer a potential location for long-term storage of CO 2 because of their requisite size. Unfortunately, the inaccessibility and complexity of the subsurface, the wide range of scales of variability, and the coupled nonlinear processes, impose tremendous challenges to determine the transport and predict the fate of the stored CO 2 . Among the various monitoring approaches, in situ down-hole monitoring of the various state parameters provides critical and direct data points that can be used to validate the models, optimize the injection, detect leakage and track the CO 2 plume. However, down-hole sensors that can withstand the harsh conditions and operate over decades of the project lifecycle remain unavailable. Given that the widespread of carbon capture and storage will be the necessity and reality in the future, fundamental and applied research is required to address the significant challenges and technological gaps in lack of long-term reliable down-hole sensors This project focused on the development and demonstration of a novel, low-cost, distributed, robust ceramic coaxial cable sensor platform for in situ down-hole monitoring of geologic CO 2 injection and storage with high spatial and temporal resolutions. The coaxial cable Fabry-Perot interferometer (CCFPI) has been studied as a general sensor platform for in situ, long-term, measurement of temperature, pressure and strain, which are critical to CO 2 injection and storage. A novel signal processing scheme has been developed and demonstrated for dense multiplexing of the sensors for low-cost distributed sensing with high spatial resolution. The developed temperature, pressure and strain sensors have been extensively tested under laboratory conditions that are similar to the downhole CO 2 storage environment, showing excellent capability for in situ monitoring the various parameters that are important to model, optimize the injection, detect leakage and track the CO 2 plume. In addition, the interactions between the sensor datum and the geological models have been investigated in details for the purposes of model validation, guiding sensor installation/placement, enhancement of model prediction capability and optimization of the injection processes. This project has resulted in the successful development of new ceramic coaxial cable based sensor systems that can monitor directly the changes in pressure, temperature, and strain caused by increased reservoir pressure and reduced reservoir temperature due to the supercritical CO 2 injection. Integrated with geological models, the sensors and measurement data can improve the possibility to identify plume movement and leakage in the cap rock and wells with higher precision and more accuracy. The low cost, ease of deployment, small size and dense multiplexing features of the new sensing technology will allow a large number of sensors to be deployed to address the objective to demonstrate that 99% of the CO 2 remains in the injection zone.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗

Robust PV Degradation Methodology and Application

The degradation rate plays an important role in predicting and assessing the long-term energy generation of PV systems. Many methods have been proposed for extracting the degradation rate from operational data of PV systems, but most of the published approaches are susceptible to bias due to inverter clipping, module soiling, temporary outages, seasonality, and sensor degradation. In this manuscript, we propose a methodology for determining PV degradation leveraging available modeled clear-sky irradiance data rather than site sensor data, and a robust year-over-year (YOY) rate calculation. We show the method to provide reliable degradation rate estimates even in the case of sensor drift, data shifts, and soiling. Compared with alternate methods, we demonstrate that the proposed method delivers the lowest uncertainty in degradation rate estimates for a fleet of 486 PV systems.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗