Results for “regression” — Page 93

DOE OSTI2018

The Use of Statistically Based Rolling Supply Curves for Electricity Market Analysis: A Preliminary Look

In light of the changing electricity resource mixes across the United States, an important question in electricity modeling is how additions and retirements of generation, including additions in variable renewable energy (VRE) generation could impact markets by changing hourly wholesale energy prices. Instead of using resource-intensive production cost models (PCMs) or building and using simple generator supply curves, this analysis uses a 'top-down' approach based on regression analysis of hourly historical energy and load data to estimate the impact of supply changes on wholesale electricity prices, provided the changes are not so substantial that they fundamentally alter the market and dispatch-order driven behavior of non-retiring units. The rolling supply curve (RSC) method used in this report estimates the shape of the supply curve that fits historical hourly price and load data for given time intervals, such as two-weeks, and then repeats this on a rolling basis through the year. These supply curves can then be modified on an hourly basis to reflect the impact of generation retirements or additions, including VRE and then reapplied to the same load data to estimate the change in hourly electricity price. The choice of duration over which these RSCs are estimated has a significant impact on goodness of fit. For example, in PJM in 2015, moving from fitting one curve per year to 26 rolling two-week supply curves improves the standard error of the regression from 16 dollars/MWh to 6 dollars/MWh and the R-squared of the estimate from 0.48 to 0.76. We illustrate the potential use and value of the RSC method by estimating wholesale price effects under various generator retirement and addition scenarios, and we discuss potential limits of the technique, some of which are inherent. The ability to do this type of analysis is important to a wide range of market participants and other stakeholders, and it may have a role in complementing use of or providing calibrating insights to PCMs.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2018

Creep Analysis of Poly(ester urethane) Copolymer by Dynamic Mechanical Analysis (DMA): Melt Determination

An experiment is presented utilizing film tension, creep test dynamic mechanical analysis (DMA) to characterize the physical properties of a poly(ester urethane) block copolymer, Estane ® 5703. The polymer was pressed into a sheet from pellet form and cut into strips for analysis utilizing the TA Q800 DMA with film tension clamp. The strips were tested under five constant stress analyses from 0.125 to 0.625, at 0.125 MPa increments. Each analysis was run stepwise through a temperature gradient from 25 °C to 67 .5 °C with 2.5 °C increments, the material reached the instrument maximum displacement at different temperature steps dependent on the constant applied stress. At each of the 18 temperature steps the material was held at constant stress for 10 minutes and allowed to recover under stress-less conditions for 20 minutes. With data analysis recoverable strain data was produced and ultimately a curve of Modulus at temperature, the regression extrapolated to modulus = 0 M Pa. The extrapolated point correlated with data the weighted average melt point of the polymer measured by MDSC, within the regressive least squares fit of the measured moduli. Thereby measuring the melt temperature of a polymer by DMA. This is the third in a series of three reports 4,5 on the physical properties and degradation processes of materials used in polymer bonded explosive 9501 written for submission to the University of Oregon, Masters Industrial Internship Program.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2018

Fire Whirl Investigation

A series of experiments were performed with the objective of achieving an extreme thermal environment by creating a fire whirl in an enclosure in facilities at the Thermal Test Complex (TTC) at Sandia National Laboratories. The motivation for the experiments is based on results from previous experiments performed at Sandia in an igloo representing a mock weapon's storage facility. In that test series, a fire whirl developed within the igloo resulting in extremely high heat flux levels. This environment was created with a pool fire of 4.6-m in diameter and was not under controlled, repeatable conditions. The objective of the current tests is to have the ability to create this environment in a repeatable controlled environment at a smaller scale, namely with a pool fire not above 3-m diameter effectively, thereby allowing for repeatable, cost-effective testing. In FY15, six tests were conducted in the Crosswind Test Facility (XTF), using a 1.77 m square pan. In FY16, three tests were conducted in the Fire Laboratory for Accreditation of Modeling by Experiment (FLAME) using a 3-m diameter pan. Both of these test series utilized the same enclosure. In FY17, a single test was performed in XTF using a 2.7 m square pan using a modified enclosure which included a ceiling. All tests used Jet-A as the fuel. The wind speed and gap width of the enclosure were varied for the FY15 XTF tests and the gap width and effect of insulation on the enclosure walls were varied for the FY16 FLAME tests. Fuel regression rates, heat flux, and gas velocity measurements were obtained. The results from the FY15 and FY16 test series indicate that fuel regression rates and peak heat flux levels are a factor of two higher than non-fire whirl pool fires of equivalent diameter. The results from the FY17 test using an enclosure with a ceiling met the objective of the test series by achieving temperatures of nearly 1400°C and heat flux levels of 400 kW/m 2 .

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2019

Fission Gamma-Ray Spectra Relevant to Post-Detonation Debris Analysis

A terrorist-generated nuclear attack would invoke unprecedented pressure for a rapid and accurate nuclear forensics characterization of the event. In-situ fission product gamma-ray spectroscopy offers the potential for a significant reduction in analysis time while still providing high fidelity identification of the primary composition of the detonated device. The in-situ spectroscopic approach we are proposing can rapidly identify the species that underwent fission as well as the fission-inducing neutron energy spectrum. To demonstrate this goal, we have used the gammaray history from our previously obtained LLNL-LANL-TUNL fission product-yield (FPY) data to provide insights for post-detonation debris analysis. The proposed method relies on the ratio of photopeak areas for selected gamma-rays representing the FPYs of sixteen fission products generated using mono-energetic neutrons at energies between 0.5 MeV to 14.8 MeV on highlyenriched 239 Pu, 235 U, and 238 U sealed targets. In addition to the fission product ratio measurements we have applied a new regression analysis based on our experimental FPY data and validated the approach using relevant Godiva FPY data and (surrogate) photofission product yields of 240 Pu. The main advantage of the regression analysis is that it investigates the FPY data set as a whole, rather than focusing on individual FPY ratios.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2019

Sierra/SolidMechanics 4.54 Example Problems Manual

Presented in this document are tests that exist in the Sierra/SolidMechanics example problem suite, which is a subset of the Sierra/SM regression and performance test suite. These examples showcase common and advanced code capabilities. A wide variety of other regression and verification tests exist in the Sierra/SM test suite that are not included in this manual.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2020

Sierra/SolidMechanics 4.56 Example Problems Manual

Presented in this document are tests that exist in the Sierra/SolidMechanics example problem suite, which is a subset of the Sierra/SM regression and performance test suite. These examples showcase common and advanced code capabilities. A wide variety of other regression and verification tests exist in the Sierra/SM test suite that are not included in this manual.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2020

Optimization of Geometric Perturbations on a Rod Moving Through a High Explosive Target

After completing a study to ensure the simulation results were converged, several high resolution 3D Smoothed Particle Hydrodynamic (SPH) simulations of copper rods impacting a high explosive (LX14) target were performed. This was then formulated into an optimization problem: I wanted to find the optimum shape and location of a perturbation on the rod that would maximize its erosion after it left the target. The shape of the perturbation was modeled as a 2D Gaussian bump and parameterized by its location along the rod axis (z 0 ) and amplitude (A). The final mass of the coherent part of the rod as it leaves the target was used as a metric to represent the erosion of the rod, and the optimization was formulated to maximize this metric with respect to the aforementioned design variables. Due to the expensive nature of the high-fidelity 3D SPH simulations, a surrogate model needed to be chosen so that many function calls to the optimizer would be feasible. Thus, a strategic full factorial sampling plan was chosen to build a dataset, which consisted of 24 high-fidelity simulations. Two surrogate models, a third order polynomial regression model and a Gaussian Process Model, were analyzed using a 14%/86% test/train holdout technique. The root mean square and R2 score of the test set was used to determine the best model, and the third order polynomial regression model was chosen as the surrogate model. Finally, the Nelder-Mead Simplex and Basin-hopping optimization algorithms were implemented, and it was found that the two algorithms gave slightly different optimum values. Nelder-Mead gave an optimum point of [z* 0 ;A*] = [9:9;0:4] and Basin-Hopping gave an optimum value of x* = [z* 0 ;A*] = [9:2;0:1].

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗

DOE OSTI2020

Sierra/SolidMechanics 4.58 Example Problems Manual

Presented in this document are tests that exist in the Sierra/SolidMechanics example problem suite, which is a subset of the Sierra/SM regression and performance test suite. These examples showcase common and advanced code capabilities. A wide variety of other regression and verification tests exist in the Sierra/SM test suite that are not included in this manual.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2020

Status Report on IES Plug-and-Play Framework

This report discusses the status of the flexible plug-and-play framework development currently ongoing that aims to integrate Modelica/Dymola with the Risk Analysis and Virtual ENviroment (RAVEN) software in terms of both Functional Mock-Up Interface (FMI)/Functional Mock-Up Unit (FMU) construction and repository structures that aim to ease the sharing and simulation of complex dynamic models. This report provides discusses the FMI/FMU adaptors that have been created within the HYBRID repository to allow users to quickly export models as FMUs. Several examples are shown that highlight the step-by-step process of converting an existing Modelica model into an FMU for use within the Dymola platform. Simulation results demonstrate that, while minor differences may occur, the overall control, trends, and solution integrity is maintained between standard Modelica simulation and FMU simulation results. However, it is worth noting that, for small systems, the FMU results have a slower simulation time than the Modelica only simulation. Using this process, a company can provide models that contain proprietary information to entities without disclosing any of the information about the model that could be considered business sensitive. Such an ability would allow institutions to bypass the necessity of “whitewashing” data. In addition to the investigative work being conducted on FMUs and FMIs, a series of updates to the hybrid repository has been completed. These updates include the addition of Modelica system-level regression tests and software quality assurance documentation that ensure that modifications to the Modelica models do not alter system-level model results. Overall, extensive work has been completed on developing FMUs and FMIs from existing models, understanding the requirements and limitations of FMUs, and opensourcing the HYBRID repository with an integrated regression system.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

DOE OSTI2019

Sierra/SolidMechanics 4.52 Example Problems Manual

Presented in this document are tests that exist in the Sierra/SolidMechanics example problem suite, which is a subset of the Sierra/SM regression and performance test suite. These examples showcase common and advanced code capabilities. A wide variety of other regression and verification tests exist in the Sierra/SM test suite that are not included in this manual.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2019

GMLS-Nets: A Framework for Learning from Unstructured Data

Data fields sampled on irregularly spaced points arise in many applications in the sciences and engineering. For regular grids, Convolutional Neural Networks (CNNs) have been successfully used to gaining benefits from weight sharing and invariances. We generalize CNNs by introducing methods for data on unstructured point clouds based on Generalized Moving Least Squares (GMLS). GMLS is a nonparametric technique for estimating linear bounded functionals from scattered data, and has recently been used in the literature for solving partial differential equations. By parameterizing the GMLS estimator, we obtain learning methods for operators with unstructured stencils. In GMLS-Nets the necessary calculations are local, readily parallelizable, and the estimator is supported by a rigorous approximation theory. We show how the framework may be used for unstructured physical data sets to perform functional regression to identify associated differential operators and to regress quantities of interest. The results suggest the architectures to be an attractive foundation for data-driven model development in scientific machine learning applications.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2020

Improvements to CTF Code Verification and Unit Testing (FY2020)

In 2010, the U.S. Department of Energy created its first Energy Innovation Hub, which focuses on improving Light Water Reactors (LWRs) through Modeling and Simulation. This hub, named the Consortium for the Advanced Simulation of LWRs (CASL), attempts to characterize and understand LWR behavior under normal operating conditions and use any gained insights to improve their efficiency. In collaboration with North Carolina State University (NCSU), CASL has worked extensively on the thermal-hydraulic subchannel code Coolant Boiling in Rod Arrays—Three Field (COBRA-TF). The NCSU/CASL version of COBRA-TF has been rebranded as CTF. This document focuses on code verification test problems that ensure CTF converges to the correct answer for the intended application. The suite of code verification tests are mapped to the underlying conservation equations of CTF, and significant gaps are addressed. Convergence behavior and numerical errors are quantified for each of the tests. Tests that converge at the correct rate to the corresponding analytic solution are incorporated into the CTF automated regression suite. A new verification utility is created for this purpose, which enables code verification by generalizing the process. For problems that do not behave correctly, the results are reported but the problem is not included in the regression suite. In addition to verification studies, this document also quantifies the existing tests of constitutive models. A few existing gaps are addressed by adding new unit tests.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

DOE OSTI2020

Opportunities for Using the Industrial Assessment Center Database for Industrial Water Use Analysis

The manufacturing sector accounted for approximately 5–6% of total U.S. water use in 2015. Of that amount, 75–80% is self supplied withdrawal from surface-water and groundwater sources and the remainder is from public water supplies. Although manufacturing facilities commonly locate in water-scarce areas, water scarcity still poses a great risk to the manufacturing sector. Reliable water is necessary for any facility that relies on it for process and comfort cooling, cleaning, employee use, and steam generation. One of these barriers to water efficiency is the lack of reliable data on overall U.S. industrial water use—how it is used and the quantities required for each sector. If a facility cannot be easily compared with a facility of similar size and sector, knowing if it is effectively using water conservation best practices is difficult. One potential source of industrial water use data is the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE)–sponsored Industrial Assessment Centers (IACs). IACs are university-based organizations that provide free audits to small- and medium-sized manufacturing facilities to identify productivity improvement and waste and energy reduction opportunities. The IACs also maintain a database of all the audits conducted, which currently holds more than 19,267 assessments and 145,000 recommendations (as of July 24, 2020). This database also contains energy utility (electricity, natural gas, and other fuels) and water utility data, making it a potential data source for industrial water use. This report attempts to create regression models to predict a small- or medium-sized industrial facility’s annual water use or cost based on its industrial subsector and several possible relevant variables. Using data collected by IAC assessments, models for several industrial subsectors were generated via stepwise regression techniques to determine which variables (annual sales, number of employees, facility/plant area, annual production hours, and a water stress metric) are relevant.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2021

Sierra/SolidMechanics 5.0 Example Problems Manual

Presented in this document are tests that exist in the Sierra/SolidMechanics example problem suite, which is a subset of the Sierra / SM regression and performance test suite. These examples showcase common and advanced code capabilities. A wide variety of other regression and verification tests exist in the Sierra / SM test suite that are not included in this manual.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2021

Sierra/SolidMechanics 5.2 Example Problems Manual

Presented in this document are tests that exist in the Sierra/SolidMechanics example problem suite, which is a subset of the Sierra/SM regression and performance test suite. These examples showcase common and advanced code capabilities. A wide variety of other regression and verification tests exist in the Sierra/SM test suite that are not included in this manual.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2021

Risk-Adaptive Experimental Design for High-Consequence Systems: LDRD Final Report

Constructing accurate statistical models of critical system responses typically requires an enormous amount of data from physical experiments or numerical simulations. Unfortunately, data generation is often expensive and time consuming. To streamline the data generation process, optimal experimental design determines the 'best' allocation of experiments with respect to a criterion that measures the ability to estimate some important aspect of an assumed statistical model. While optimal design has a vast literature, few researchers have developed design paradigms targeting tail statistics, such as quantiles. In this project, we tailored and extended traditional design paradigms to target distribution tails. Our approach included (i) the development of new optimality criteria to shape the distribution of prediction variances, (ii) the development of novel risk-adapted surrogate models that provably overestimate certain statistics including the probability of exceeding a threshold, and (iii) the asymptotic analysis of regression approaches that target tail statistics such as superquantile regression. To accompany our theoretical contributions, we released implementations of our methods for surrogate modeling and design of experiments in two complementary open source software packages, the ROL/OED Toolkit and PyApprox.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2021

Development of the IES Plug-and-Play Framework

This report discusses the status of the flexible plug-and-play framework development currently ongoing that aims to integrate Modelica/Dymola with the Risk Analysis and Virtual ENvironment (RAVEN) software in terms of both Functional Mock-Up Interface (FMI)/Functional Mock-Up Unit (FMU) construction and repository structures that aim to ease the sharing and simulation of complex dynamic models. This report aims to provide an overview of all the performed activities resolving around the deployment of methods, software infrastructures, guidelines and workflow for the construction and usage of models, encapsulated using the FMI/FMU protocols and standards. In particular, the report is organized in three main macro-subjects, which are connected to each other: - FMI/FMU adaptors for modelica models - HYBRID repository new structure and open-source deployment - RAVEN FMI/FMU exporting capabilities and Artificial Intelligence (AI)-based analysis acceleration. The first part of the report discusses the FMI/FMU adaptors that have been created within the HYBRID repository to allow users to quickly export models, such as FMUs. Several examples are shown that highlight the step-by-step process of converting an existing Modelica model into an FMU for use within the Dymola platform. Simulation results demonstrate that, while minor differences may occur, the overall control, trends, and solution integrity are maintained between standard Modelica simulation and FMU simulation results. However, it is worth noting that, for small systems, the FMU results have a slower simulation time than the Modelica only simulation. Using this process, a company can provide models that contain proprietary information to entities without disclosing any of the information about the model that could be considered business sensitive. Such an ability would allow institutions to bypass the necessity of “whitewashing” data. In the second part of the report, the new structure of the HYBRID repository is discussed with a major focus on the series of updates that has been completed. These updates include the addition of Modelica system-level regression tests and software quality assurance documentation that ensure that modifications to the Modelica models do not alter system-level model results. The third and final part of the report aims to report the work that has been performed for the deployment of methods and workflows for the construction of RAVEN AI-based models compliant with the FMI/FMU standard. Such development represents the key for the deployment of the concept of “Flexible ecosystem” since it allows for the replacement of high-fidelity modelica models (or any other FMI/FMU compliant model) with RAVEN generated AI surrogate models. Overall, extensive work has been completed on developing FMUs and FMIs from existing models, understanding the requirements and limitations of FMUs, and open-sourcing the HYBRID repository with an integrated regression system.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2021

Development of the IES Plug-and-Play Framework

This report discusses the status of the flexible plug-and-play framework development currently ongoing that aims to integrate Modelica/Dymola with the Risk Analysis and Virtual ENvironment (RAVEN) software in terms of both Functional Mock-Up Interface (FMI)/Functional Mock-Up Unit (FMU) construction and repository structures that aim to ease the sharing and simulation of complex dynamic models. This report aims to provide an overview of all the performed activities resolving around the deployment of methods, software infrastructures, guidelines and workflow for the construction and usage of models, encapsulated using the FMI/FMU protocols and standards. In particular, the report is organized in three main macro-subjects, which are connected to each other: - FMI/FMU adaptors for modelica models - HYBRID repository new structure and open-source deployment - RAVEN FMI/FMU exporting capabilities and Artificial Intelligence (AI)-based analysis acceleration. The first part of the report discusses the FMI/FMU adaptors that have been created within the HYBRID repository to allow users to quickly export models, such as FMUs. Several examples are shown that highlight the step-by-step process of converting an existing Modelica model into an FMU for use within the Dymola platform. Simulation results demonstrate that, while minor differences may occur, the overall control, trends, and solution integrity are maintained between standard Modelica simulation and FMU simulation results. However, it is worth noting that, for small systems, the FMU results have a slower simulation time than the Modelica only simulation. Using this process, a company can provide models that contain proprietary information to entities without disclosing any of the information about the model that could be considered business sensitive. Such an ability would allow institutions to bypass the necessity of “whitewashing” data. In the second part of the report, the new structure of the HYBRID repository is discussed with a major focus on the series of updates that has been completed. These updates include the addition of Modelica system-level regression tests and software quality assurance documentation that ensure that modifications to the Modelica models do not alter system-level model results. The third and final part of the report aims to report the work that has been performed for the deployment of methods and workflows for the construction of RAVEN AI-based models compliant with the FMI/FMU standard. Such development represents the key for the deployment of the concept of “Flexible ecosystem” since it allows for the replacement of high-fidelity modelica models (or any other FMI/FMU compliant model) with RAVEN generated AI surrogate models. Overall, extensive work has been completed on developing FMUs and FMIs from existing models, understanding the requirements and limitations of FMUs, and open-sourcing the HYBRID repository with an integrated regression system.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗