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At least 1,675 records · Page 93
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2002

Dissociative Ionization of Benzene by Electron Impact

We report a theoretical study of the dissociative ionization (DI) of benzene from the low-lying ionization channels. Our approach makes use of the fact that electron motion is much faster than nuclear motion and DI is treated as a two-step process. The first step is electron-impact ionization resulting in an ion with the same nuclear geometry as the neutral molecule. In the second step the nuclei relax from the initial geometry and undergo unimolecular dissociation. For the ionization process we use the improved binary-encounter dipole (iBED) model. For the unimolecular dissociation step, we study the steepest descent reaction path to the minimum of the ion potential energy surface. The path is used to analyze the probability of unimolecular dissociation and to determine the product distributions. Our analysis of the dissociation products and the thresholds of the productions are compared with the result dissociative photoionization measurements of Feng et al. The partial oscillator strengths from Feng et al. are then used in the iBED cross section calculations.

Huo, Winifred↗
NASA NTRS2012

Large-Scale Weibull Analysis of H-451 Nuclear- Grade Graphite Specimen Rupture Data

A Weibull analysis was performed of the strength distribution and size effects for 2000 specimens of H-451 nuclear-grade graphite. The data, generated elsewhere, measured the tensile and four-point-flexure room-temperature rupture strength of specimens excised from a single extruded graphite log. Strength variation was compared with specimen location, size, and orientation relative to the parent body. In our study, data were progressively and extensively pooled into larger data sets to discriminate overall trends from local variations and to investigate the strength distribution. The CARES/Life and WeibPar codes were used to investigate issues regarding the size effect, Weibull parameter consistency, and nonlinear stress-strain response. Overall, the Weibull distribution described the behavior of the pooled data very well. However, the issue regarding the smaller-than-expected size effect remained. This exercise illustrated that a conservative approach using a two-parameter Weibull distribution is best for designing graphite components with low probability of failure for the in-core structures in the proposed Generation IV (Gen IV) high-temperature gas-cooled nuclear reactors. This exercise also demonstrated the continuing need to better understand the mechanisms driving stochastic strength response. Extensive appendixes are provided with this report to show all aspects of the rupture data and analytical results.

Nemeth, Noel N.↗
NASA NTRS2018

A Fast Monte Carlo Method for Model-Based Prognostics Based on Stochastic Calculus

This work proposes a fast Monte Carlo method to solve differential equations utilized in model-based prognostics. The methodology is derived from the theory of stochastic calculus, and the goal of such a method is to speed up the estimation of the probability density functions describing the independent variable evolution over time. In the prognostic scenarios presented in this paper, the stochastic differential equations describe variables directly or indirectly related to the degradation of a monitored system. The method allows the estimation of the probability density functions by solving the deterministic equation and approximating the stochastic integrals using samples of the model noise. By so doing, the prognostic problem is solved without the Monte Carlo simulation based on Euler's forward method, which is typically the most time consuming task of the prediction stage. Three different prognostic scenarios are presented as proof of concept: (i) life prediction of electrolytic capacitors, (ii) remaining time to discharge of Lithium-ion batteries, and (iii) prognostic of cracked structures under fatigue loading. The paper shows how the method produces probability density functions that are statistically indistinguishable from the distributions estimated with Euler's forward Monte Carlo simulation. However, the proposed solution is orders of magnitude faster when computing the time-to-failure distribution of the monitored system. The approach may enable complex real-time prognostics and health management solutions with limited computing power.

Corbetta, M.↗
NASA NTRS2019

A Fast Monte Carlo Method for Model-Based Prognostics Based on Stochastic Calculus

This work proposes a fast Monte Carlo method to solve differential equations utilized in model-based prognostics. The methodology is derived from the theory of stochastic calculus, and the goal of such a method is to speed up the estimation of the probability density functions describing the independent variable evolution over time. In the prognostic scenarios presented in this paper, the stochastic differential equations describe variables directly or indirectly related to the degradation of a monitored system. The method allows the estimation of the probability density functions by solving the deterministic equation and approximating the stochastic integrals using samples of the model noise. By so doing, the prognostic problem is solved without the Monte Carlo simulation based on Euler's forward method, which is typically the most time consuming task of the prediction stage. Three different prognostic scenarios are presented as proof of concept: (i) life prediction of electrolytic capacitors, (ii) remaining time to discharge of Lithium-ion batteries, and (iii) prognostic of cracked structures under fatigue loading. The paper shows how the method produces probability density functions that are statistically indistinguishable from the distributions estimated with Euler's forward Monte Carlo simulation. However, the proposed solution is orders of magnitude faster when computing the time-to-failure distribution of the monitored system. The approach may enable complex real-time prognostics and health management solutions with limited computing power.

stochastic calculus↗
DOE OSTI2022

Constraints from isoscaling on the source size in energetic heavy ion collisions

In the framework of the statistical multifragmentation model, the nuclear isoscaling analysis is extended to constrain the ratio between the sizes of the decaying sources formed in a collision between two heavy ions. It is found that the ratio between the probabilities of observing n fragments in each event, for each of the sources, follows a scaling law, similar to the traditional nuclear isoscaling. However, the corresponding slope is sensitive to the source sizes. This property is explained analytically using the grand-canonical ensemble. Furthermore, the extent to which our findings are affected by finite size effects and by the deexcitation of the hot primary fragments is investigated. The scaling turns out to be robust and weakly affected by effects implied by these two aspects. We also find that the Poisson distribution is a fairly good approximation to the above mentioned probabilities, associated with both the primordial fragments, produced at the breakup stage, and the final ones, found at the end of the fragment deexcitation process.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
NASA NTRS1992

Quantifying parameters for Bayesian prior assumptions when estimating the probability of failure of software

Software reliability has become increasingly important, especially in life-critical situations. The ability to measure the results of testing and to quantify software reliability is needed. If this is accomplished, a certain minimum amount of reliability for a piece of software can be specified, and testing and/or other analysis may be done until that minimum number has been attained. There are many models for estimating software reliability. The accuracy of these models has been challenged and many revisions for the models and recalibration techniques have been devised. Of particular interest is the method of estimating the probability of failure of software when no failures have yet occurred in its current version as described by Miller. This model uses black box testing with formulae based on Bayesian estimation. The focus is on three interrelated issues: estimating the probability of failure when testing has revealed no errors; modifying this estimation when the input use distribution does not match the test distribution; and combining the results from random testing with other relevant information to obtain a possibly more accurate estimate of the probability of failure. Obtaining relevant information about the software and combining the results for a better estimate for the Miller model are discussed.

Long, Jacquelyn E.↗
NASA NTRS2001

Distribution functions of probabilistic automata

Each probabilistic automaton M over an alphabet A defines a probability measure Prob sub(M) on the set of all finite and infinite words over A. We can identify a k letter alphabet A with the set {0, 1,..., k-1}, and, hence, we can consider every finite or infinite word w over A as a radix k expansion of a real number X(w) in the interval [0, 1]. This makes X(w) a random variable and the distribution function of M is defined as usual: F(x) := Prob sub(M) { w: X(w) < x }. Utilizing the fixed-point semantics (denotational semantics), extended to probabilistic computations, we investigate the distribution functions of probabilistic automata in detail. Automata with continuous distribution functions are characterized. By a new, and much more easier method, it is shown that the distribution function F(x) is an analytic function if it is a polynomial. Finally, answering a question posed by D. Knuth and A. Yao, we show that a polynomial distribution function F(x) on [0, 1] can be generated by a prob abilistic automaton iff all the roots of F'(x) = 0 in this interval, if any, are rational numbers. For this, we define two dynamical systems on the set of polynomial distributions and study attracting fixed points of random composition of these two systems.

Denotational semantics↗
DOE OSTI2020

Data-Driven Preemptive Voltage Monitoring and Control Using Probabilistic Voltage Sensitivities

Increased penetration levels of distributed variable renewable generation can cause random voltage fluctuations and violations at multiple nodes. Traditional methods of voltage control typically involve reactionary responses of capacitor banks, tap changers, and recently even smart inverters. But because of the lack of foresight in voltage violations, these controls are ineffective to completely mitigate the issue. Therefore, new methods of predicting voltage violations subject to random power injection changes in the distribution network are needed, which can be used to guide optimal and dynamic methods of voltage control. This work lays the foundation for such preemptive voltage monitoring and control by proposing an analytical and sensor data-driven voltage sensitivity analysis method. Driven by stochastic data and forecasts, the method can be used to develop probabilistic voltage sensitivities and consequently to predict system nodes with high likelihood of voltage limit violations. The effectiveness of this method is tested on IEEE 69-node distribution system integrated with distributed solar. The results demonstrate the proposed method's ability to successfully predict nodes with high probability of voltage violations for a specific time-series simulation. The results also demonstrate the ability to guide timely power injection control actions to mitigate future voltage violations.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2021

A study of DC electrical breakdown in liquid helium through analysis of the empirical breakdown field distributions

Here we report results from a study on electrical breakdown in liquid helium using near-uniform-field stainless steel electrodes with a stressed area of ~0.7cm 2 . The distribution of the breakdown field is obtained for temperatures between 1.7 K and 4.0 K, pressures between the saturated vapor pressure and 626 Torr, and with electrodes of different surface polishes. A data-based approach for determining the electrode-surface-area scaling of the breakdown field is presented. The dependence of the breakdown probability on the field strength as extracted from the breakdown field distribution data is used to show that breakdown is a surface phenomenon closely correlated with Fowler–Nordheim field emission from asperities on the cathode. We show that the results from this analysis provide an explanation for the supposed electrode gap-size effect and also allow for a determination of the breakdown-field distribution for arbitrary shaped electrodes. Most importantly, the analysis method presented in this work can be extended to other noble liquids to explore the dependencies for electrical breakdown in those media.

74 ATOMIC AND MOLECULAR PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2026

Complex exposure-burial history and Pleistocene sediment recycling in the dead sea rift with implications for the age of the Acheulean site of ‘Ubeidiya

Here, we present early Pleistocene burial ages of the ‘Ubeidiya Formation sediments in the Jordan Valley, a segment of the Dead Sea Rift Valley. A minimum age of ∼1.1 Ma is constrained both by paleomagnetic analysis and U-Pb dating of Melanopsis shells. Simple cosmogenic burial ages (i.e., one very long exposure period followed by one period of burial) calculated from the ratios of 26 Al to 10 Be and 10 Be concentrations indicate ages of ∼3 Ma, contradicting the geological and paleomagnetic constraints as well as a reasonable age of the ‘Ubeidiya archeological site, as it contains human remains. A more sophisticated way of treating the results, by combining numerical modeling of cosmogenic nuclide build up during repeated burial-exposure cycles, paleomagnetic analysis (indicating reverse polarity) and a minimum burial age of 1.1 Ma set by U-Pb dating of Melanopsis shells, suggests two most probable time slots (1.19-1.77 and 1.93- 2.14 Ma) for the absolute age of the ‘Ubeidiya Formation. However, the skewed distribution of cosmogenic isotope burial ages, with a median age of 2.05 Ma, indicates a much higher probability of the older ages, most likely >1.9 Ma. The exposure-burial history that emerges from the model implies recycling of sediments previously deposited and buried in the rift valley, between 4.5 and 3.2 Ma, and subsequently exhumed, eroded, transported and then redeposited along the ‘Ubeidiya paleo lake shoreline.

Acheulean↗
NASA NTRS1976

Interactions of satellite-speed helium atoms with satellite surfaces. 2: Energy distributions of reflected helium atoms

Energy transfer in collisions of satellite-speed (7,000 m/sec) helium atoms with a cleaned 6061-T6 satellite-type aluminum surface was investigated using the molecular-beam technique. The amount of energy transferred was determined from the measured energy of the molecular-beam and the measured spatial and energy distributions of the reflected atoms. Spatial distributions of helium atoms scattered from a 6061-T6 aluminum surface were measured. The scattering pattern exhibits a prominent backscattering, probably due to the gross surface roughness and/or the relative lattice softness of the aluminum surface. Energy distributions of reflected helium atoms from the same surface were measured for six different incidence angles. For each incidence angle, distributions were measured at approximately sixty scattering positions. At a given scattering position, the energy spectra of the reflected helium atoms and the background gas were obtained using the retarding-field energy analyzer.

Liu, S. M.↗
NASA NTRS1983

Eolian intracrater deposits on Mars - Physical properties and global distribution

It is noted that more than one-fourth of all craters larger than 25 km in diameter between -50 deg S and 50 deg N have localized deposits of coarse material on the floor which are associated with the dark 'splotches' that are seen visually. If homogeneous, unconsolidated materials are assumed, the measured thermal inertias of these deposits imply effective grain sizes that range from 0.1 mm to 1 cm, with a modal value of 0.9 mm. Even though these deposits are coarser and darker than the surrounding terrains and the greater part of the Martian surface, they are not compositionally distinct from materials with similar albedos. It is thought most likely that these features were formed by entrapment of marginally mobile material that can be transported into, but not out of, crater depressions by the wind. Most of the 'splotch' deposits are coarser than the dune-forming materials occurring in the north polar region and inside extreme southern latitude craters; they probably form low, broad zibar dunes or lag deposits. The distribution of intracrater deposits is seen as suggesting that the intracrater features have been buried in the interior of Arabia and that the dust deposit is less extensive at the margins and may currently be expanding.

Christensen, P. R.↗
DOE OSTI2025

Structure–Activity Relationships in Ether-Functionalized Solid-State Metal–Organic Framework Electrolytes

The structure–property relationships of metal–organic framework (MOF)-based solid-state electrolytes are not well understood. Herein, a systematic investigation of 12 Zr(IV)-based UiO-66 MOFs with varying ether-chain functional groups was carried out to elucidate the critical microscopic interactions that facilitate improved solid-state electrolyte performance. Enhanced sampling molecular dynamics (MD) simulations were employed and revealed a three-tier ion hopping mechanism: linker–linker hopping, linker-counterion hopping, and counterion-counterion hopping. Detailed structural analysis of the MD trajectories revealed that the chemistry and morphology of the linker groups affect the relative stability and population distribution of the electrolyte components, such that crown-ether-based linker groups enhance the probability of extended, low-barrier ion percolation pathways. As a result, we were able to tune the ionic conductivities by rationally manipulating the counterion distributions, linker binding strengths, and the configurational entropy (multivariability of the linkers). The resulting performance of these MOF-based solid-state electrolytes was significantly enhanced, with a methoxy-functionalized framework (UiO-66-L1 100 ) achieving high ionic conductivities of 2.32 × 10 –4 S/cm and 2.07 × 10 –3 S/cm at 30 °C and 90 °C, respectively, an order of magnitude greater than other all-solid-state MOF electrolyte systems. The electrolyte stability was evaluated with LiIn|LPSCl|MOF:LiTFSI|LPSCl|LiIn symmetric cells, showing excellent Li plating/stripping processes for over 2 months.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
NASA NTRS1990

Closed-form solution of decomposable stochastic models

Markov and semi-Markov processes are increasingly being used in the modeling of complex reconfigurable systems (fault tolerant computers). The estimation of the reliability (or some measure of performance) of the system reduces to solving the process for its state probabilities. Such a model may exhibit numerous states and complicated transition distributions, contributing to an expensive and numerically delicate solution procedure. Thus, when a system exhibits a decomposition property, either structurally (autonomous subsystems), or behaviorally (component failure versus reconfiguration), it is desirable to exploit this decomposition in the reliability calculation. In interesting cases there can be failure states which arise from non-failure states of the subsystems. Equations are presented which allow the computation of failure probabilities of the total (combined) model without requiring a complete solution of the combined model. This material is presented within the context of closed-form functional representation of probabilities as utilized in the Symbolic Hierarchical Automated Reliability and Performance Evaluator (SHARPE) tool. The techniques adopted enable one to compute such probability functions for a much wider class of systems at a reduced computational cost. Several examples show how the method is used, especially in enhancing the versatility of the SHARPE tool.

Sjogren, Jon A.↗
NASA NTRS1985

An APL program for the distribution of energy deposition by charged particles passing through thin absorbers

An APL program which numerically evaluates the probability density function (PDF) for the energy deposited in a thin absorber by a charged particle is proposed, with application to the construction, pointing, and control of spacecraft. With this program, the PDF of the restricted energy loss distribution of Watts (1973) is derived, and Vavilov's (1957) distribution is obtained by proper parameter selection. The method is demonstrated with the example of the effect of charged particle induced radiation on the Hubble Space Telescope (HST) pointing accuracy. A Monte Carlo study simulates the photon noise caused by charged particles passing through the photomultiplier tube window, and the stochastic variation of energy loss is introduced into the simulation by generating random energy losses from a power law distribution. The program eliminates annoying loop procedures, and model parameter sensitivity can be studied using the graphical output.

Howell, L. W.↗
NASA NTRS1972

Distribution of error in least-squares solution of an overdetermined system of linear simultaneous equations

Probability density functions were derived for errors in the evaluation of unknowns by the least squares method in system of nonhomogeneous linear equations. Coefficients of the unknowns were assumed correct and computational precision were also assumed. A vector space was used, with number of dimensions equal to the number of equations. An error vector was defined and assumed to have uniform distribution of orientation throughout the vector space. The density functions are shown to be insensitive to the biasing effects of the source of the system of equations.

Miller, C. D.↗
DOE OSTI2025

Investigating the Performance of SF6 Replacement Gases to Enable the Next Generation of Pulsed Power

High voltage switches are essential components in pulsed power systems, where consistent and reliable performance is crucial—particularly as the field explores alternatives to SF 6 as an insulating gas. This project examines the self-break voltage distributions of various gases, with a focus on the low-voltage discharges observed in the lower tail of these distributions. Experimental results revealed that the specific housing design influenced the self-break behavior. Among the tested gases, air demonstrated a more favorable overall distribution compared to SF 6 , albeit requiring higher operating pressures. However, air also exhibited a greater likelihood of extremely low-voltage dropouts, raising concerns about its suitability as a direct replacement for SF 6 . Notably, all gases tested showed a higher-than-expected probability of low-voltage events when considering the tail of the distribution rather than the bulk behavior.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
NASA NTRS1988

Parallel discrete event simulation using shared memory

With traditional event-list techniques, evaluating a detailed discrete-event simulation-model can often require hours or even days of computation time. By eliminating the event list and maintaining only sufficient synchronization to ensure causality, parallel simulation can potentially provide speedups that are linear in the numbers of processors. A set of shared-memory experiments, using the Chandy-Misra distributed-simulation algorithm, to simulate networks of queues is presented. Parameters of the study include queueing network topology and routing probabilities, number of processors, and assignment of network nodes to processors. These experiments show that Chandy-Misra distributed simulation is a questionable alternative to sequential-simulation of most queueing network models.

Reed, Daniel A.↗