Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “prediction models”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 1,675 records · Page 93
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2026

Navigating the Path to Autonomy: Real-World Lessons from an Air-Free Self-Driving Laboratory

While autonomous experimentation has promise to accelerate discovery in physcial sciences, the real-world integration of predictive models and experimentation is non-trivial. Here we describe the genesis of a self-driving laboratory (SDL) for air-sensitive chemistry at Argonne National Laboratory and demonstrate the experimental design considerations needed for high-throughput experiments before predictive models can lead to scientific discovery. Our SDL was designed to explore battery electrolyte stability. Our final SDL utilized plate readers in a glovebox with a nitrogen atmosphere to perform kinetic assays and screen hundreds of battery-relevant solvents. However, the roadmap to autonomy and airfree-friendly experimentation required the complex evaluation of several spectroscopic and chromatographic methods. The greatest experimental challenges were (a) developing long-term sampling methods that remained air-free; (b) accelerating kinetics to advance reactivity projections; and (c) ensuring labware compatibility with nonaqueous solvents used in battery chemistry. Our experiences highlight the practical gap between closed-loop aspirations and the realities of chemical discovery, offering lessons on the challenges of transferring every day laboratory workflows to autonomy. These results suggest a more realistic blueprint for autonomy in chemistry—one that balances thoughtful and realistic experimental formulation.

Robertson, Lily A.↗
DOE OSTI2022

Monopoles, exotic states and muon $$g-2$$ in TeV scale trinification

Abstract We study the low energy implications of a trinification model based on the gauge symmetry $$G= SU(3)_c \times SU(3)_L \times SU(3)_R$$ G = S U ( 3 ) c × S U ( 3 ) L × S U ( 3 ) R , without imposing gauge coupling unification. A minimal model requires two Higgs multiplets that reside in the bi-fundamental representation of G , and this is shown to be adequate for accommodating the Standard Model (SM) fermion masses and generate, via loop corrections and seesaw mechanism, suitable masses for the heavy neutral leptons as well as the observed SM neutrinos. We estimate a lower bound of around 15 TeV for the masses of the new down- type quarks that are required by the $$SU(3)_L \times SU(3)_R$$ S U ( 3 ) L × S U ( 3 ) R symmetry. We examine the resonant production at the LHC of the new gauge bosons, which leads to a lower bound of 16 TeV for the symmetry breaking scale of G . We also show how the muon $$g-2$$ g - 2 anomaly can be resolved in the presence of these new gauge bosons and the heavy charged leptons present in the model. Finally, the model predicts the presence of a topologically stable monopole carrying three quanta $$(6 \pi /e)$$ ( 6 π / e ) of Dirac magnetic charge and mass $$\gtrsim 160$$ ≳ 160 TeV. If new matter fields lying in the fundamental representations of G are included, the model predicts the presence of exotic leptons, mesons and baryons carrying fractional electric charges such as $$\pm e/3$$ ± e / 3 and $$\pm 2e/3$$ ± 2 e / 3 , fully compatible with the Dirac quantization condition.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
NASA NTRS2024

Evolving Particles in the 2022 Hunga-Tonga Hunga-Ha’apai Volcano Eruption Plume

The Multi-angle Imaging SpectroRadiometer (MISR) aboard NASA’s Terra satellite observed the Hunga Tonga—Hunga Ha’apai (HTHH) 15 January eruption plume on eight occasions between 15 and 23 January 2022. From the MISR multi-angle, multi-spectral imagery we retrieve aerosol plume height geometrically, along with plume-level motion vectors, and derive radiometrically constraints on particle effective size, shape, and light-absorption properties. Parts of two downwind aerosol layers were observed in different places and times, one concentrated in the upper troposphere (11-18 km ASL), and a mid-stratosphere layer~23 –30+ km ASL. After the initial day (1/15), the retrievals identified only spherical, non-light-absorbing particles, typical of volcanic sulfate/water particles. The near-tropopause plume particles show constant, medium-small (several tenths of a micron) effective size over four days. The mid-stratosphere particles were consistently smaller, but retrieved effective particle size increased between 1/17 and 1/23, though they might have decreased slightly on 1/22. As a vast amount of water was also injected into the stratosphere by this eruption, models predicted relatively rapid sulfate particle growth from the modest amounts of SO2 gas injected by the eruption to high altitudes along with the water (Zhu et al, 2022). MISR observations up to ten days after the eruption are consistent with these model predictions. The possible decrease in stratospheric particle size after initial growth was likely caused by evaporation, as the plume mixed with drier, ambient air. Particles in the lower-elevation plume observed on 1/15 were larger than all the downwind aerosols and contained significant non-spherical (likely ash) particles.

aerosol plume height↗
DOE OSTI2021

Lithium-ion battery physics and statistics-based state of health model

A pseudo-2d model using COMSOL Multiphysics® software is developed to simulate performance and performance degradation of Li-ion batteries consisting of layered and olivine cathodes with graphite anode when subjected to peak shaving grid service. Multiple degradation pathways are considered, including solid electrolyte interphase (SEI) formation and breakdown at the anode, cathode dissolution and its synergistic effect on SEI formation at the anode. The model is validated by simulating commercial cylindrical cell performance. A global model is developed to simulate performance across all chemistries, along with individual chemistry models using global model parameters as initial values. There is good agreement between these models for various optimization parameters such as SEI equilibrium potential, cathode dissolution exchange current density, solvent diffusivity in the SEI and SEI ionic conductivity. To circumvent time constraints related to the COMSOL model, a 0d global model is developed which fits data well and provides more clarity on differences in cathode dissolution exchange current density. Again, good agreement for various optimization parameters is obtained among the COMSOL global & individual chemistry models and the 0-d model. The lessons learned from the physics-based model is used to develop a top down statistics-based model using current, voltage and anode volumetric change per mole lithium intercalated, along with their interactions as degradation predictors. This model predicts out of sample degradation for multiple grid services and electric vehicle drive cycle with high accuracy and provides the pathway to develop an efficient battery management system combining machine learning and findings from physics-based computationally intensive algorithms.

Crawford, Aladsair J.↗
DOE OSTI2024

Search for the nonresonant production of Higgs boson pairs via gluon fusion and vector-boson fusion in the $b\bar{b}$τ + τ – final state in proton-proton collisions at $\sqrt{s}$ = 13 TeV with the ATLAS detector

A search for the nonresonant production of Higgs boson pairs in the HH → $b\overline{b}$$\tau^{+}\tau^{-}$ channel is performed using 140 fb -1 of proton-proton collisions at a center-of-mass energy of 13 TeV recorded by the ATLAS detector at the CERN Large Hadron Collider. The analysis strategy is optimized to probe anomalous values of the Higgs boson self-coupling modifier $\kappa_{\tau}$ and of the quartic HHVV (v = W,Z) coupling modifier $\kappa$ 2⁢V . No significant excess above the expected background from Standard Model processes is observed. An observed (expected) upper limit μ HH < 5.9⁢(3.3) is set at 95% confidence-level on the Higgs boson pair production cross section normalized to its Standard Model prediction. The coupling modifiers are constrained to an observed (expected) 95% confidence interval of -3.1 <$\kappa_{\tau}$ < 9.0 (-2.5 < $\kappa_{\tau}$ < 9.3) and -0.5 <$\kappa$ 2⁢V < 2.7 (-0.2 <$\kappa$ 2⁢V < 2.4), assuming all other Higgs boson couplings are fixed to the Standard Model prediction. The results are also interpreted in the context of effective field theories via constraints on anomalous Higgs boson couplings and Higgs boson pair production cross sections assuming different kinematic benchmark scenarios.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Advanced Geomechanical Model to Predict the Impact of CO2-Induced Microstructural Alterations on the Cohesive-Frictional Behavior of Mt. Simon Sandstone

We investigated the influence of CO2-induced geochemical reactions on the cohesive-frictional properties of host rock within the context of CO2 storage in a saline aquifer and focused on the Mt. Simon sandstone. The research objective was to model geo-mechanical changes due to host rock exposure to CO2-saturated brine while accounting for heterogeneity, double-scale porosity, and granular structure. We formulated a three-level multi-scale model for host rocks. We conducted scanning electron microscopy analyses to probe the microstructure and grid nanoindentation to measure the mechanical response. We derived new nonlinear strength upscaling solutions to correlate the effective strength characteristics and the macroscopic yield surface to the micro-structure at the nano-, micro-, and meso-scales. Specifically, our theoretical model links CO2-induced microstructural alterations to a reduction in the size of the yield surface, and a drop in the value of the friction coefficient. In turn, regarding the Illinois Basin Decatur Project, the CO2-induced drop in friction coefficient is linked to an increase in the risk of fault slip and a higher probability of induced microseismicity during and after the end of CO2 underground injection operations. The theoretical model presented is essential for the geo-mechanical modeling of CO2 underground injection operations at multiple length-scales.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2001

A Winning Cast

Howmet Research Corporation was the first to commercialize an innovative cast metal technology developed at Auburn University, Auburn, Alabama. With funding assistance from NASA's Marshall Space Flight Center, Auburn University's Solidification Design Center (a NASA Commercial Space Center), developed accurate nickel-based superalloy data for casting molten metals. Through a contract agreement, Howmet used the data to develop computer model predictions of molten metals and molding materials in cast metal manufacturing. Howmet Metal Mold (HMM), part of Howmet Corporation Specialty Products, of Whitehall, Michigan, utilizes metal molds to manufacture net shape castings in various alloys and amorphous metal (metallic glass). By implementing the thermophysical property data from by Auburn researchers, Howmet employs its newly developed computer model predictions to offer customers high-quality, low-cost, products with significantly improved mechanical properties. Components fabricated with this new process replace components originally made from forgings or billet. Compared with products manufactured through traditional casting methods, Howmet's computer-modeled castings come out on top.

Source record↗
DOE OSTI2025

Validation of RANS Models for Predicting Bypass Flow in Prismatic VHTRs

In prismatic Very-High Temperature Reactors (VHTRs), gaps occur between neighboring fuel assemblies referred to as bypass gaps. This work aims to measure the flow distribution between the bypass gaps between neighboring assemblies and the coolant channels within the assemblies. Computational fluid dynamics (CFD) was done using Reynolds-Averaged Navier Stokes (RANS) modeling in STAR-CCM+ to assess the ability of RANS models to accurately capture this phenomena. The RANS results were compared to experimental worked performed by Seoul National University (SNU) and Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute (KAERI) for validation. The CFD results showed good comparison with the experimental data available from SNU and flow split was characterized for multiple configurations, inlet mass flow rates, and bypass gap sizes.

22 - GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Predictive numerical modeling of plasma-induced surface roughness and wettability evolution in LM-PAEK/CF tape

Plasma surface modification effectively enhances adhesion in thermoplastic composites, yet its impacts on high-performance polymers like low-melting polyaryletherketone (LM-PAEK) remain inadequately quantified. Here, this study integrates experimental analysis and numerical modeling to characterize surface roughness and wettability changes in LM-PAEK/carbon fiber composites treated with atmospheric plasma. Atomic Force Microscopy quantified surface topography (n = 10 per condition for contact angles), while static contact-angle assessments measured wettability. Roughness rapidly increased from ∼0.2 nm to 1.6 nm, and contact angle reduced from ∼90° to 24°, both stabilizing after 25–30 s of exposure. A semi-empirical, physics-informed framework was calibrated to these data, coupling surface chemistry via the Owens–Wendt decomposition with topography via the Wenzel roughness factor, and evaluated using out-of-sample (cross-validated) tests, while static contact angle assessments measured wettability. Numerical predictions matched experimental results closely (RMSE <5%, R 2 > 0.95). Incorporating material-specific parameters, the calibrated model supports plasma-treatment optimization and provides quantitative guidance for improving interfacial adhesion in thermoplastic composite manufacturing.

Atomic Force Microscopy↗
DOE OSTI2024

Influence of alloy solidification path on melt pool behavior in additive manufacturing

Numerical models used to study transport phenomena in laser-powder bed fusion processes often rely on assumptions and simplifications to reduce their computational expense. One common simplification is in the description of latent heat evolution during the solid-liquid phase change (i.e., the solidification pathway), justified by the fact that the mushy zone thickness is similar to the numerical grid spacing used for continuum transport models. The lack of resolution of transport phenomena in the mushy zone motivates the use of computationally convenient solidification paths such as linear or sigmoidal relationships over pathways derived from fundamental solidification theory such as equilibrium or Scheil models. In the present work, an uncertainty quantification (UQ) framework is used to analyze the influence of solidification pathway selection on the solidification dynamics and melt pool geometries in laser based additive manufacturing (AM) of IN625. Results show the solidification pathway has a quantifiable influence on the cooling rate at the liquidus isotherm, mushy zone thickness, and solidification time. Due to similarities in the latent heat evolution at the beginning of solidification, the equilibrium and Scheil models predict similar cooling rates near the liquidus isotherm, however the wider freezing range of Scheil leads to a wider mushy zone compared to equilibrium. The non-physical latent heat release profiles of sigmoidal and linear paths lead to significant overpredictions of cooling rates at the liquidus isotherm compared to equilibrium and Scheil. Finally, these results indicate that careful consideration should be given to the choice of solidification pathway to ensure reliable model predictions.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2020

Data-Driven Modeling and Optimization of Building Energy Consumption: a Case Study

Installing sensors and Building Automation Systems (BAS) allows controlling the facility operations while generating data that can be analyzed for model development. This work focuses on data-driven modeling of the building to optimize energy consumption. The City of Orlando aims to reduce its energy consumption so, they provided us access to their BAS for data and studying the operation of its facilities. We selected a mid-size pilot building to conduct data analysis and modeling. We develop an Application Programming Interface (API) to login to the servers and scrape data. The scraped data contains features ranging from environmental conditions to equipment activity. This dataset is a time series so, it's handled in accordance and analyzed to investigate patterns and relations between data points that help choose parameters for predictive models for building and equipment. Finally, the models are optimized to reduce the energy consumption of the facility.

Grover, Divas↗
DOE OSTI2024

Model-independent predictions for decays of hidden-heavy hadrons into pairs of heavy hadrons

Hidden-heavy hadrons can decay into pairs of heavy hadrons through transitions from confining Born-Oppenheimer potentials to hadron-pair potentials with the same Born-Oppenheimer quantum numbers. The transitions are also constrained by conservation of angular momentum and parity. From these constraints, we derive model-independent selection rules for decays of hidden-heavy hadrons into pairs of heavy hadrons. The coupling potentials are expressed as sums of products of Born-Oppenheimer transition amplitudes and angular-momentum coefficients. If there is a single dominant Born-Oppenheimer transition amplitude, it factors out of the coupling potentials between hidden-heavy hadrons in the same Born-Oppenheimer multiplet and pairs of heavy hadrons in specific heavy-quark-spin-symmetry doublets. If furthermore the kinetic energies of the heavy hadrons are much larger than their spin splittings, we obtain analytic expressions for the relative partial decay rates in terms of Wigner 6 j and 9 j symbols. We consider in detail the decays of quarkonia and quarkonium hybrids into the lightest heavy-meson pairs. For quarkonia, our model-independent selection rules and relative partial decay rates agree with previous results from quark-pair-creation models in simple cases and give stronger results in other cases. For quarkonium hybrids, we find disagreement even in simple cases. Published by the American Physical Society 2024

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
NASA NTRS1992

Prediction of Chemical Vapor Deposition Rates on Monofilaments and Its Implications for Fiber Properties

Deposition rates are predicted in a cylindrical upflow reactor designed for chemical vapor deposition (CVD) on monofilaments. Deposition of silicon from silane in a hydrogen carrier gas is chosen as a relevant example. The effects of gas and surface chemistry are studied in a two-dimensional axisymmetric flow field for this chemically well-studied system. Model predictions are compared to experimental CVD rate measurements. The differences in some physical and chemical phenomena between such small diameter (about 150 microns) fiber substrates and other typical CVD substrates are highlighted. The influence of the Soret mass transport mechanism is determined to be extraordinarily significant. The difficulties associated with the accurate measurement and control of the fiber temperature are discussed. Model prediction sensitivities are investigated with respect to fiber temperatures, fiber radii, Soret transport, and chemical kinetic parameters. The implications of the predicted instantaneous rates are discussed relative to the desired fiber properties for both the batch and the continuous processes.

Gokoglu, S. A.↗
DOE OSTI2024

Anomalous Dispersion in Reflection and Emission of Dye Molecules Strongly Coupled to Surface Plasmon Polaritons

We have studied dispersion of surface plasmon polaritons (SPPs) in the Kretschmann geometry (prism/Ag/dye-doped polymer) in weak, intermediate, and ultra-strong exciton–plasmon coupling regimes. The dispersion curves obtained in the reflection experiment were in good agreement with the simple model predictions at small concentrations of dye (Rhodamine 590, Rh590) in the polymer (Poly(methyl methacrylate), PMMA). At the same time, highly unusual multi-segment “staircase-like” dispersion curves were observed at extra-large dye concentrations, also in agreement with the simple theoretical model predicting large, small, and negative group velocities featured by different polariton branches. In a separate experiment, we measured angular dependent emission of Rh590 dye and obtained the dispersion curves consisting of two branches, one nearly resembling the SPP dispersion found in reflection and the second one almost horizontal. The results of our study pave the road to unparalleled fundamental science and future applications of weak and strong light—matter interactions.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
NASA NTRS1989

A continuum model of continental deformation above subduction zones - Application to the Andes and the Aegean

A continuum model of continental deformation above subduction zones was developed that combines the viscous sheet and the corner flow models; the continental lithosphere is described by a two-dimensional sheet model that considers basal drag resulting from the viscous asthenosphere flow underneath, and a corner flow model with a deforming overlying plate and a rigid subducting plate is used to calculate the shear traction that acts on the base of the lithosphere above a subduction zone. The continuum model is applied to the Andes and the Aegean deformations, which represent, respectively, compressional and extensional tectonic environments above subduction zones. The models predict that, in a compressional environment, a broad region of uplifted topography will tend to develop above a more steeply dippping slab, rather than above a shallower slab, in agreement with observations in the various segments of the central Andes. For an extensional environment, the model predicts that a zone of compression can develop near the trench, and that extensional strain rate can increase with distance from the trench, as is observed in the Aegean.

Wdowinski, Shimon↗
NASA NTRS1995

A comparison of Image Quality Models and Metrics Predicting Object Detection

Many models and metrics for image quality predict image discriminability, the visibility of the difference between a pair of images. Some image quality applications, such as the quality of imaging radar displays, are concerned with object detection and recognition. Object detection involves looking for one of a large set of object sub-images in a large set of background images and has been approached from this general point of view. We find that discrimination models and metrics can predict the relative detectability of objects in different images, suggesting that these simpler models may be useful in some object detection and recognition applications. Here we compare three alternative measures of image discrimination, a multiple frequency channel model, a single filter model, and RMS error.

Rohaly, Ann Marie↗
DOE OSTI2025

Multistage economic MPC for systems with a cyclic steady state: A gas network case study

Multistage model predictive control (MPC) provides a robust control strategy for dynamic systems with uncertainties and a setpoint tracking objective. Moreover, extending MPC to minimize an economic cost instead of tracking a pre-calculated optimal setpoint improves controller performance. This paper presents a novel multistage economic nonlinear model predictive control (E-NMPC) framework for dynamic systems operating under uncertainty, with specific application to natural gas transmission networks. A key innovation lies in the integration of cyclic steady-state (CSS) constraints within the multistage MPC formulation, enabling the controller to manage periodic operating conditions commonly observed in energy systems. A Lyapunov-based descent condition is enforced to ensure robust stability of the controller. The multistage economic MPC framework is validated on two gas pipeline case studies, where it successfully minimizes net energy consumption, respects operational constraints under uncertain demand profiles, and guides the network to optimal cyclic operation. The Lyapunov function remains bounded in both case studies, validating the robust stability of multistage E-NMPC.

03 NATURAL GAS↗