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At least 1,675 records · Page 93

Integrating Efficiency of Industry Processes and Practices Alongside Technology Effectiveness in Space Transportation Cost Modeling and Analysis

This paper presents past and current work in dealing with indirect industry and NASA costs when providing cost estimation or analysis for NASA projects and programs. Indirect costs, when defined as those costs in a project removed from the actual hardware or software hands-on labor; makes up most of the costs of today's complex large scale NASA space/industry projects. This appears to be the case across phases from research into development into production and into the operation of the system. Space transportation is the case of interest here. Modeling and cost estimation as a process rather than a product will be emphasized. Analysis as a series of belief systems in play among decision makers and decision factors will also be emphasized to provide context.

Zapata, Edgar↗

Relative cooling rates of mare basalts at the Apollo 12 and 15 sites as estimated from pyroxene exsolution data

X-ray single-crystal diffraction studies, supplemented by electron microprobe analyses of core pigeonites and rim augites from rocks 12031, 15085, 15475, and 15495, have been used to suggest cooling rates for these and other Apollo 12 and 15 rocks studied by similar methods. The extent of subsolidus phase separation of pyroxenes is used as a measure of the cooling rate. The results were interpreted in terms of model cooling histories of a lava flow whose thickness was estimated from the absolute cooling rates obtained by cooling rate experiments and by temperature-time variation through an extrusive flow computed by employing simplified theory of Jaeger. All available data on the exsolution and cation distributions of pyroxenes from Apollo 12 and 15 samples at present are consistent with the hypothesis that these rocks were derived from the top and interior of lava flows with thicknesses of 4-10 m. A process for exsolution of augite from a host pigeonite on (100) has been related to its low-calcium content.

Takeda, H.↗

Estimating the Likelihood of GHG Concentration Scenarios From Probabilistic Integrated Assessment Model Simulations

The climate scenarios that form the basis for current climate risk assessments have no assigned probabilities, and this impedes the analysis of future climate risks. This paper proposes an approach to estimate the probability of carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) concentration scenarios used in key climate change modeling experiments. It computes the CO 2 emissions compatible with the concentrations prescribed by Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) and CMIP6 experiments. The distribution of these compatible cumulative emissions is interpreted as the likelihood of future emissions given a concentration pathway. Using Bayesian analysis, the probability of each pathway can be estimated from a probabilistic sample of future emissions. The approach is demonstrated with five probabilistic CO 2 emission simulation ensembles from four Integrated Assessment Models (IAM), leading to independent estimates of the likelihood of the CO 2 concentration of Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) and Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP). Results suggest that SSP5-8.5 is unlikely for the second half of the 21st century, but offer no clear consensus on which of the remaining scenarios is most likely. Estimates of likelihoods of CO 2 concentrations associated with RCP and SSP scenarios are affected by sampling errors, differences in emission sources simulated by the IAMs, and a lack of a common experimental framework for IAM simulations. These shortcomings, along with a small IAM ensemble size, limit the applicability of the results presented here. Novel joint IAM and the Earth System Model experiments are needed to deliver actionable probabilistic climate risk assessments.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Metamagnetism and kinetic arrest in a long-range ferromagnetically ordered multicaloric double perovskite Y 2 CoMnO 6

A systematic magnetic study of the double perovskite oxide Y 2 CoMnO 6 (YCMO) has been performed. A monoclinic P21/n phase of YCMO was synthesized using a sol-gel method. Neutron diffraction (ND) measurements evidence the onset of long-range ferromagnetic (FM) ordering at TC ~ 76 K, which persists down to 5 K. The presence of 25% antisite disorder, estimated from the ND data, leads to the appearance of short-range antiferromagnetic (AFM) interactions. The existence of thermal hysteresis due to competing interactions between FM and AFM phases is observed in the M vs. T measurements. The pinning of magnetic domain walls at the Co/Mn antiphase boundaries results in a metamagnetic-like behavior. The field dependence of thermomagnetic irreversibility and the nature of virgin curves indicate the occurrence of a kinetic arrest phenomenon, which is further verified via cooling and heating of the system in an unequal fields (CHUF) protocol. In full agreement with the ND data, a detailed analysis of critical exponents near the paramagnetic (PM)-FM phase transition also establishes YCMO as a long-range interacting mean-field system. A close examination of the temperature- and field-dependent magnetic entropy change yields an in-depth understanding of coexisting magnetically ordered and disordered phases in YCMO, leading to a comprehensive magnetic phase diagram of this multifunctional double perovskite system.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Prompt and non-prompt J/ψ production cross sections at midrapidity in proton-proton collisions at $ \sqrt{\mathrm{s}} $ = 5.02 and 13 TeV

The production of J /ψ is measured at midrapidity ( |y| < 0 . 9) in proton-proton collisions at \( \sqrt{s} \) = 5 . 02 and 13 TeV, through the dielectron decay channel, using the ALICE detector at the Large Hadron Collider. The data sets used for the analyses correspond to integrated luminosities of \( \mathcal{L} \) int = 19.4 ± 0.4 nb - 1 and \( \mathcal{L} \) int = 32.2 ± 0.5 nb - 1 at \( \sqrt{s} \) = 5 . 02 and 13 TeV, respectively. The fraction of non-prompt J /ψ mesons, i.e. those originating from the decay of beauty hadrons, is measured down to a transverse momentum p T = 2 GeV /c (1 GeV /c ) at \( \sqrt{s} \) = 5 . 02 TeV (13 TeV). The p T and rapidity ( y ) differential cross sections, as well as the corresponding values integrated over p T and y , are carried out separately for prompt and non-prompt J /ψ mesons. The results are compared with measurements from other experiments and theoretical calculations based on quantum chromodynamics (QCD). The shapes of the p T and y distributions of beauty quarks predicted by state-of-the-art perturbative QCD models are used to extrapolate an estimate of the \( \mathrm{b}\overline{\mathrm{b}} \) pair cross section at midrapidity and in the total phase space. The total \( \mathrm{b}\overline{\mathrm{b}} \) cross sections are found to be \( {\sigma}_{\mathrm{b}\overline{\mathrm{b}}} \) = 541 ± 45 (stat . ) ± 69 \( {\left(\mathrm{syst}.\right)}_{-12}^{+10} \) (extr . ) μ b and \( {\sigma}_{\mathrm{b}\overline{\mathrm{b}}} \) = 218 ± 37 (stat . ) ± 31 \( {\left(\mathrm{syst}.\right)}_{-9.1}^{+8.2} \) (extr . ) μ b at \( \sqrt{s} \) = 13 and 5.02 TeV, respectively. The value obtained from the combination of ALICE and LHCb measurements in pp collisions at \( \sqrt{s} \) = 13 TeV is also provided.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Data-driven optimized control of the COVID-19 epidemics

Optimizing the impact on the economy of control strategies aiming at containing the spread of COVID-19 is a critical challenge. We use daily new case counts of COVID-19 patients reported by local health administrations from different Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSAs) within the US to parametrize a model that well describes the propagation of the disease in each area. We then introduce a time-varying control input that represents the level of social distancing imposed on the population of a given area and solve an optimal control problem with the goal of minimizing the impact of social distancing on the economy in the presence of relevant constraints, such as a desired level of suppression for the epidemics at a terminal time. We find that with the exception of the initial time and of the final time, the optimal control input is well approximated by a constant, specific to each area, which contrasts with the implemented system of reopening ‘in phases’. For all the areas considered, this optimal level corresponds to stricter social distancing than the level estimated from data. Proper selection of the time period for application of the control action optimally is important: depending on the particular MSA this period should be either short or long or intermediate. We also consider the case that the transmissibility increases in time (due e.g. to increasingly colder weather), for which we find that the optimal control solution yields progressively stricter measures of social distancing. We finally compute the optimal control solution for a model modified to incorporate the effects of vaccinations on the population and we see that depending on a number of factors, social distancing measures could be optimally reduced during the period over which vaccines are administered to the population.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Magnetic and f-electron effects in LaNiO2 and NdNiO2 nickelates with cuprate-like $$3{d}_{{x}^{2}-{y}^{2}}$$ band

Recent discovery of superconductivity in the doped infinite-layer nickelates has renewed interest in understanding the nature of high-temperature superconductivity more generally. The low-energy electronic structure of the parent compound NdNiO 2 , the role of electronic correlations in driving superconductivity, and the possible relationship between the cuprates and the nickelates are still open questions. Here, by comparing LaNiO 2 and NdNiO 2 systematically within a parameter-free, all-electron first-principles density-functional theory framework, we reveal the role of Nd 4 f electrons in shaping the ground state of pristine NdNiO 2 . Strong similarities are found between the electronic structures of LaNiO 2 and NdNiO 2 , except for the effects of the 4 f electrons. Hybridization between the Nd 4 f and Ni 3 d orbitals is shown to significantly modify the Fermi surfaces of various magnetic states. In contrast, the competition between the magnetically ordered phases depends mainly on the gaps in the Ni \(3{d}_{{x}^{2}-{y}^{2}}\) band. Our estimated value of the on-site Hubbard U in the nickelates is similar to that in the cuprates, but the value of the Hund’s coupling J H is found to be sensitive to the Nd magnetic moment. In contrast with the cuprates, NdNiO 2 presents 3D magnetism with competing antiferromagnetic and (interlayer) ferromagnetic exchange, which may explain why the T c is lower in the nickelates.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Liquid-liquid phase transition of hydrogen and its critical point: Analysis from ab initio simulation and a machine-learned potential

We simulate high-pressure hydrogen in its liquid phase close to molecular dissociation using a machine-learned interatomic potential. The model is trained with density functional theory (DFT) forces and energies, with the Perdew-Burke-Ernzerhof (PBE) exchange-correlation functional. We show that an accurate NequIP model, an E(3)-equivariant neural network potential, accurately reproduces the phase transition present in PBE. Moreover, the computational efficiency of this model allows for substantially longer molecular dynamics trajectories, enabling us to perform a finite-size scaling (FSS) analysis to distinguish between a crossover and a true first-order phase transition. Here, we locate the critical point of this transition, the liquid-liquid phase transition (LLPT), at 1200-1300 K and 155-160 GPa, a temperature lower than most previous estimates and close to the melting transition.

08 HYDROGEN↗

Experimental Validation of a Kinetic Ballooning Mode in High-Performance High-Bootstrap Current Fraction Fusion Plasmas

We report the observation of a set of coherent high frequency electromagnetic fluctuations that leads to a turbulence induced self-regulating phenomenon in the DIII-D high bootstrap current fraction plasma. The fluctuations have frequency of 130~220kHz, the poloidal wave length and phase velocity are 16~30 m -1 and ~30 km/s, respectively in the outboard midplane with the estimated toroidal mode number n~5- 9. The fluctuations are located in the internal transport barrier (ITB) region at large radius and are experimentally validated to be kinetic ballooning modes (KBM). Furthermore, quasilinear estimation predicts the KBM to be able to drive experimental particle flux and non-negligible thermal flux, suggesting its significant role in regulating the ITB saturation.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

The Strange Case of Ground-Coupled Airwaves on Seismoacoustic Stations at Local to Near-Regional Scales

Here we investigate the application of ground-coupled airwaves observed by seismoacoustic stations at local to near-regional scales to detect signals of interest and determine back-azimuth information. Ground-coupled airwaves are created from incident pressure waves traveling through the atmosphere that couple to the earth and transmit as a seismic wave with retrograde elliptical motion. Previous studies at sub-local scales (<10 km from a source of interest) found the back-azimuth to the source could be accurately determined from seismoacoustic signals recorded by acoustic and 3-component seismic sensors spatially separated on the order of 10 to 150 m. The potential back-azimuth directions are estimated from the coherent signals between the acoustic and vertical seismic data, via a propagation-induced phase shift of the seismoacoustic signal. A unique solution is then informed by the particle motion of the 3-component seismic station, which was previously found to be less accurate than the seismoacoustic-sensor method. We investigate the applicability of this technique to greater source-receiver distances, from 50-100 km and up to 400 km, which contains pressure waves with tropospheric and stratospheric ray paths, respectively. Specifically, we analyze seismoacoustic sources with ground truth from rocket motor fuel elimination events at the Utah Test and Training Range (UTTR) as well as a 2020 rocket launch in Southern California. From these sources we observe evidence that while coherent signals can be seen from both sources on multiple seismoacoustic station pairs, the determined ground-coupled airwave back-azimuths are more complicated than results at more local scales. Our findings suggest more complex factors including incidence angle, coupling location, subsurface material, and atmospheric propagation effects need to be fully investigated before the ground-coupled airwave back-azimuth determination method can be applied or assessed at these further distances.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Methodology of the Extraction of Multi-Differential Cross Sections of Charged-Current $\nu_\mu$-Argon Interactions in MicroBooNE Using Wire-Cell $\nu_\mu$CC Selection

Neutrino physics experiments rely on accurate nuclear-interaction models that are in part guided by experimental observations. Multi-differential cross section measurements are particularly valuable for exploring the underlying physics described in these models, making them a significant step forward in the field. This note presents methodology in preparation to unfold neutrino flux-averaged double and triple-differential cross sections of the inclusive muon neutrino charged-current interaction on Argon. This work builds upon the existing framework and methodology presented in recent energy dependent cross section measurements at MicroBooNE using the Wire-Cell tomographic event reconstruction. The signal definition, choice of binning, and handling of estimated detector uncertainties are discussed, and the MicroBooNE simulation model is validated over the multi-dimensional phase space of muon momentum, muon polar angle, and visible hadronic energy.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Surface /catalytic/ reactions on upper atmospheric aerosols

Highly reactive minor species and aerosol layers are present together at times in certain regions of the upper atmosphere. It is suggested that this interplay may lead to surface reactions that could affect the local photochemical balance. A simple model of the surface recombination of atomic oxygen at the mesopause, incorporating rough estimates of aerosol concentrations, is used to estimate the importance of this effect. Surface recombination does appear to be significant in comparison with gas phase recombination for atomic oxygen; however, major uncertainties remain in the model.

Olivero, J. J.↗

Multiple scattering in cloud layers; some results

Theoretical methods are discussed for calculating radiative effects of aerosols. Experimental determination is emphasized for relevant aerosol parameters on a global basis to arrive at realistic estimates of heating and cooling. Internal radiation fields in very thin and very thick slabs are reviewed. Phase functions, polarization, emission by internal sources, and path length distribution are also considered.

Vandehulst, H. C.↗

Typical teleoperator time delay profiles, phase 2

The results of the second phase of a study on time delays in communications systems applicable to the teleoperator program are presented. Estimates of the maximum time delays that will be encountered and presents time delay profiles are given for (1) ground control to teleoperator in low earth orbit, (2) ground control to teleoperator in geosynchronous orbit, and (3) low earth orbit control to teleoperator in low earth orbit.

Wetherington, R. D.↗

Photoballistics of volcanic jet activity at Stromboli, Italy

Two night eruptions of the volcano Stromboli were studied through 70-mm photography. Single-camera techniques were used. Particle sphericity, constant velocity in the frame, and radial symmetry were assumed. Properties of the particulate phase found through analysis include: particle size, velocity, total number of particles ejected, angular dispersion and distribution in the jet, time variation of particle size and apparent velocity distribution, averaged volume flux, and kinetic energy carried by the condensed phase. The frequency distributions of particle size and apparent velocities are found to be approximately log normal. The properties of the gas phase were inferred from the fact that it was the transporting medium for the condensed phase. Gas velocity and time variation, volume flux of gas, dynamic pressure, mass erupted, and density were estimated. A CO2-H2O mixture is possible for the observed eruptions. The flow was subsonic. Velocity variations may be explained by an organ pipe resonance. Particle collimation may be produced by a Magnus effect.

Chouet, B.↗

Ionospheric effects in active retrodirective array and mitigating system design

The operation of an active retrodirective array (ARA) in an ionospheric environment (that is either stationary or slowly-varying) was examined. The restrictions imposed on the pilot signal structure as a result of such operation were analyzed. A 3 tone pilot beam system was defined which first estimates the total electron content along paths of interest and then utilizes this information to aid the phase conjugator so that correct beam pointing can be achieved.

Nandi, A. K.↗

Ionospheric effects in active retrodirective array and mitigating system design

The operation of an active retrodirective array (ARA) in an ionospheric environment (that is either stationary or slowly-varying) was examined. The restrictions imposed on the pilot-signal structure as a result of such operation are analyzed. A 3-tone pilot beam system is defined which first estimates the total electron content along paths of interest and then utilizes this information to aid the phase conjugator so that correct beam pointing can be achieved.

Nandi, A. K.↗