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NASA NTRS2023

Recent Changes in Cyanobacteria Algal Bloom Magnitude in Large Lakes Across the Contiguous United States

Cyanobacterial blooms in inland lakes produce large quantities of biomass that impact drinking water systems, recreation, and tourism and may produce toxins that can adversely affect public health. This study analyzed nine years of satellite-derived bloom records and compared how the bloom magnitude has changed from 2008-2011 to 2016-2020 in 1881 of the largest lakes across the contiguous United States (CONUS). We determined bloom magnitude each year as the spatio-temporal mean cyanobacteria biomass from May to October and in concentrations of chlorophyll-a. We found that bloom magnitude decreased in 465 (25%) lakes in the 2016-2020 23 period. Conversely, there was an increase in bloom magnitude in only 81 lakes (4%). Bloom magnitude either didn’t change, or the observed change was in the uncertainty range in the majority of the lakes (n=1335, 71%). Above-normal wetness and normal or below-normal maximum temperature over the warm season may have caused the decrease in bloom magnitude in the eastern part of the CONUS in recent years. On the other hand, a hotter and dryer warm season in the western CONUS may have created an environment for increased algal biomass. While more lakes saw a decrease in bloom magnitude, the pattern was not monotonic over the CONUS. The variations in temporal changes in bloom magnitude within and across climatic regions depend on the interactions between land use land cover (LULC) and physical factors such as temperature and precipitation. Despite expectations suggested by recent global studies, bloom magnitude has not increased in larger US lakes over this time period.

remote sensing↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

High-Cycle Fatigue Behavior of SiC-based Ceramic Matrix Composites (CMCs) at High Temperatures

High-cycle fatigue (HCF) behavior of a melt-infiltrated, pre-preg SiC/SiC ceramic matrix composite (CMC) was investigated using dogbone tensile specimens without and with simulated cooling holes at 1500 and 2400 °F. The CMC material used for this study was fabricated by GE Aviation and had a ply configuration of [0/90/0]3. HCF tests were conducted with an R-ratio of 0.6 and a cyclic frequency of 30 Hz. Runout in HCF was defined as 30 million cycles. Monotonic tensile tests were conducted at room temperature (RT) on as-received CMC specimens and on runout HCF specimens to determine residual tensile strengths. Digital image correlation (DIC) and acoustic emission (AE) techniques were used to monitor the initiation and progression of damage in RT tensile tests on specimens with and without holes. Microscopy was performed on the polished edge of specimens without cooling holes and on the polished face of specimens with cooling holes that were tested in HCF and achieved runout. Comparisons were made with baseline specimens. Fractography was performed to examine the fracture surfaces of samples that failed under different loading conditions.

Ceramic Matrix Composites↗

NASA NTRS2024

Tensile Behavior and High-Cycle Fatigue Durability of a SiC/SiC Ceramic-Matrix Composite Without and With Simulated Cooling Holes

High-cycle fatigue (HCF) behavior of a melt-infiltrated, prepreg SiC/SiC composite was investigated using specimens without and with simulated cooling holes at 816 and 1,316 °C. The ceramic-matrix composite (CMC) material used for this study was fabricated by GE Aviation and had a ply configuration of [0/90/0] 3 . HCF tests were conducted with an R-ratio of 0.6 and a cyclic frequency of 30 Hz. Maximum tensile gross-section stresses used in the HCF tests ranged from 152 to 359 MPa. Runout in HCF was defined as 30 million cycles (278 h) at both temperatures. Monotonic tensile tests were conducted at room temperature (RT) on as-received CMC specimens and on HCF runout specimens without and with holes to determine residual tensile strengths. Digital image correlation (DIC) and acoustic emission (AE) techniques were used to monitor progression of damage in RT tensile tests on specimens without and with holes. Fractography was performed on a limited number of specimens without and with holes to determine morphology of fracture surfaces. Representative RT stress-strain behavior, elevated temperature HCF behavior at the two temperatures, and RT residual tensile strengths of HCF runout specimens are documented in this report. Select examples of DIC and AE data from RT tensile tests on specimens without and with holes and typical features observed on fracture surfaces of specimens tested under tensile and HCF conditions are also discussed.

Ceramic matrix composite↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Assessment of UMUSCL Scheme for DNS of Turbulent Flows

Direct numerical simulation (DNS) is performed using an unstructured node-based finite-volume methodology for canonical turbulent flow configurations to assess the effect of the upwinding parameter (κ) in the unstructured monotonic upstream scheme for conservation laws (UMUSCL) reconstruction scheme. The NASA FUN3D solver is used, and four turbulent validation cases are considered: periodic Taylor-Green vortex, (2) flow through a plane channel, (3) flow through a channel with a constriction, and (4) flow over a flat plate. The results are presented for κ = 0.5, 0.9 and 1 on hexahedral grids, with the last value corresponding to a zero-numerical dissipation scheme. Detailed comparisons with available reference data indicate that for the smallest length-scales simulated, κ = 0.5 is too dissipative while κ = 1 could lead to an energy build-up. Overall, κ =0.9 yields satisfactory results in terms of accuracy and robustness for all the cases considered in this study.

Direct Numerical Simulation↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Assessment of UMUSCL Scheme for DNS of Turbulent Flows

Direct Numerical Simulations (DNS) are performed using the FUN3D code ( https://fun3d.larc.nasa.gov) for three validation cases: (1) flow through a plane channel, (2) flow through a channel with a constriction, and (3) flow over a flat plate. FUN3D is a node-centered finite-volume code developed at the NASA Langley Research Center that solves the three-dimensional compressible Navier-Stokes equations on unstructured computational grids. The simulations are performed employing the 2nd-order unstructured monotonic upstream scheme for conservation laws (UMUSCL). The results are compared with available experimental and numerical data. The effect of the UMUSCL reconstruction parameter (κ) is assessed, and the results indicate that κ = 0.9 yields satisfactory results in terms of accuracy and robustness compared to available data. Further analyses of the results, along with additional test cases and grids will be presented in the final manuscript.

Direct Numerical Simulation↗

NASA NTRS2024

Protocol Dependent Frictional Granular Jamming Simulations: Cyclical, Compression and Expansion

Granular matter takes many paths to pack in natural and industrial processes. The path influences the packing microstructure, particularly for frictional grains. We perform discrete element modeling simulations of different paths to construct packings of frictional spheres. Specifically, we explore four stress-controlled protocols implementing packing expansions and compressions in various combinations thereof. We characterize the eventual packed states through their dependence of the packing fraction and coordination number on packing pressure, identifying non-monotonicities with pressure that correlate with the fraction of frictional contacts. These stress-controlled, bulk-like particle simulations access very low-pressure packings, namely, the marginally stable limit, and demonstrate the strong protocol dependence of frictional granular matter.

DEM↗

NASA NTRS2024

Effects of Oxide Dispersion on Failure Modes in an Additively Manufactured Superalloy

Additive manufacturing opens new paths for introducing oxide particles into superalloys, to potentially provide oxide dispersion strengthening (ODS) at high temperatures. This provides opportunities to study how such dispersions can influence failure modes for a given superalloy, after nearly identical material processing paths. The objective of this study was to compare monotonic failure modes for additively manufactured superalloys with versus without an introduced oxide dispersion. The superalloy for each case was produced by laser powder bed fusion additive manufacturing. Specimens were subsequently given consistent thermal treatment paths and then tested in tensile and creep tests at varied temperatures. Failure modes were then compared. Additively manufactured NiCrAl without ODS had randomly oriented equiaxed grains while this alloy with 0.25 wt% Y 2 O 3 ODS additions had elongated [001] oriented grains in the build direction. Material made without ODS (“No-ODS”) was nearly completely single phase gamma, while ODS additions resulted in gamma, chromium carbide, and Y-Al-Cr oxide phases, with carbide and oxide phases contents estimated at no more than 13 and 1 vol%, respectively. Compared to No-ODS, material made with ODS had higher tensile strengths at room, 760 and 1093 °C. The elongation of ODS material was lower than No-ODS at room temperature, but higher at 760 °C. At 1093 °C ODS material had higher elongation than No-ODS when tested in the build direction, however elongation was lower for ODS material in the transverse direction at 1093 °C. Creep rupture strain, life, and area reduction at 760 and 1093 °C were all much higher for ODS material compared to No-ODS; 760 °C rupture life was nearly 100 times longer for ODS material. The presence of Y in the ODS material significantly improved oxidation resistance.

supperalloys↗

NASA NTRS2024

Multiple Habitable Phases on Outer Exosolar Worlds

As stars evolve to higher luminosities during first ascension of the giant branch, previously frozen terrestrial worlds may thaw and host liquid water on their surfaces. Eventually these outer worlds again become uninhabitable due to receiving too much incident light and their water inventory evaporating. Solar-mass stars experience a sudden decrease in luminosity entering the horizontal branch, which could result in a secondary habitable phase for their outer worlds. The outer worlds' time with habitable surface climates is key in evaluating the possibility of extraterrestrial life arising. The times inside the habitable zone (TIHZ) are calculated for outer worlds orbiting between 5 and 45 au around a Sun-like star. By comparing the TIHZ to time estimates for life to arise on Earth, we evaluate whether such outer worlds are promising candidates in the search for extraterrestrial life. We use two different solar evolution models (PARSEC and Dartmouth) and both optimistic and conservative habitable zone (HZ) definitions. Multiple habitable phases are found for each outer world. Outer worlds with orbits as large as Saturn are found to have a secondary habitable phase which exceeds the first in duration. Generally, the time inside the HZ is found to decrease almost monotonically with orbiting distance. Water loss is calculated after the first habitable phase to determine whether a secondary habitable phase is possible. For all orbiting distances the water loss is insufficient to deplete a water inventory equivalent to that of many moons in the outer solar system.

Astrobiology↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Open-Hole Testing of Resin Infused Carbon Composite Laminates to Facilitate Damage Growth and Failure Analysis Tools for Structural Design

In manufacturing of carbon-fiber reinforced composite aircraft structures, resin infusion offers a highly repeatable process for manufacturing structural components with resin content control, low labor requirements, and complex curvatures. To further understand the structural capabilities of res-in infused composites (RIC), this study – as part of the NASA-led Hi-Rate Composite Aircraft Manufacturing project efforts – performed open hole tension (OHT) and open hole compression (OHC) testing on RIC laminates. This testing provides information on the damage morphology and growth characteristics of RICs, which fuels the development and evaluation of analysis tools for progressive damage growth and failure responses. X-ray computed tomography (XCT) was implemented on each OHC and OHT specimen prior to mechanical testing to identify preexisting damage and/or defects. Two OHT and OHC specimens were loaded monotonically to failure and an additional OHT and OHC specimen were loaded intermittently at defined conditions and XCT scanned after each run. From the data obtained in this study, damage mechanisms leading to failure were identified, damage morphology and size were assessed, and damage initiation and failure loads were measured.

HiCAM↗

NASA NTRS2023

The Sensitivity of the Equatorial Pacific ODZ to Particulate Organic Matter Remineralization in A Climate Model Under Pre-Industrial Conditions

Marine oxygen plays a fundamental role in regulating the transfer of organic carbon and nutrients to their dissolved inorganic forms, serving as the terminal electron acceptor for heterotrophic respiration. Oxygen can become limiting to these processes in coastal and open-ocean oxygen deficient zones (ODZs). The maintenance of ODZs depends on the balance between physical processes such as ventilation and biogeochemical processes such as remineralization. These two processes act in opposing directions on ODZs, with ventilation responsible for transporting oxygen from the surface, where it is near saturation with the partial pressure of O2 in the atmosphere, to deeper oxygen-depleted layers, and remineralization acting to consume oxygen through biogeochemical processes such as microbial degradation throughout the water column. Remineralization is represented in all CMIP6 models, but the actual parameterizations, as well as their magnitude, are widely varying. In this study, we examine the sensitivity to remineralization of the equatorial Pacific ODZ O2 ol/kg) in a model; the NASA GISS Ocean Biogeochemical Model (NOBM-G) embedded in the NASA-GISS coupled atmosphere-ocean model. We find that increasing the remineralization rate shoals the ODZ onset depth (i.e. the regionally averaged upper bound of the ODZ), and decreases ODZ volume and regional-averaged thickness. Changes in biological consumption and vertical convergence of oxygen are identified as the primary contributors to changes in ODZ onset depth. ODZ thickness is mainly influenced by the shoaling of the bottom boundary of the ODZ, which decreases with maximum remineralization rate due to decreasing oxygen consumption and increasing horizontal oxygen convergence in deep waters. On the other hand, vertically-averaged ODZ area has a more complex, non-monotonic relationship with maximum remineralization rate. While these findings suggest an important role for remineralization in determining the shape of the ODZ in our model, the relative importance of remineralization vs. other physical parameterizations remains to be established. While our results reflect the structure of our ocean biogeochemical model, the relationship of remineralization to ODZ characteristics in other models should be examined to better inform model inter-comparisons.

Oxygen-deficient zone↗

NASA NTRS2024

GVIPS Prediction of Cyclic Ratchetting Behavior and Cycles With Interrupted Relaxation Periods of TIMETAL 21S at 650 oC

The predictive performance of a multimechanism GVIPS model with saturating hardening function is assessed against a set of high temperature cyclic experiments under both strain-control and stress-control at varying rates of loading as well as several complex interrupted cyclic responses. The material specimens were composed of the titanium alloy, TIMETAL 21S, and tested at 650oC, see Lissenden et al., 2007. The model did a very good job of predicting the variety of tests, particularly given the fact that only monotonic loading tests (tensile, creep, relaxation) and a single fully reversed cycle was used for characterization. It was particularly interesting that the model was capable of reasonably capturing the rate of accumulated strain during ratchetting under tensile mean stress. Given complex interrupted cyclic response, the model was able to both qualitatively and even quantitatively predict reasonably well both the cyclic and associated relaxation periods (in all quadrants of the stress-strain space) thus confirming the validity of the chosen functional forms for both hardening and thermal recovery. The quantitative inaccuracy is associated with the fact that the material specimens tested by Lissenden et al., 2007 was significantly “softer” than those tested by Castelli in Saleeb et al., 1994 which were used for characterization of the GVIPS model parameters.

Viscoplaticity↗

NASA NTRS2026

GVIPS Prediction of Cyclic Ratchetting Behavior and Cycles with Interrupted Relaxation Periods of TIMETAL 21S at 650 °C

The predictive performance of a multimechanism GVIPS model with saturating hardening function is assessed against a set of high temperature cyclic experiments under both strain-control and stress-control at varying rates of loading as well as several complex interrupted cyclic responses. The material specimens were composed of the titanium alloy, TIMETAL 21S, and tested at 650 °C, see Lissenden et al., 2007. The model did a very good job of predicting the variety of tests, particularly given the fact that only monotonic loading tests (tensile, creep, relaxation) and a single fully reversed cycle was used for characterization. It was particularly interesting that the model was capable of reasonably capturing the rate of accumulated strain during ratchetting under tensile mean stress. Given complex interrupted cyclic response, the model was able to both qualitatively and even quantitatively predict reasonably well both the cyclic and associated relaxation periods (in all quadrants of the stress-strain space) thus confirming the validity of the chosen functional forms for both hardening and thermal recovery. The quantitative inaccuracy is associated with the fact that the material specimens tested by Lissenden et al., 2007 was significantly “softer” than those tested by Castelli in Saleeb et al., 1994 which were used for characterization of the GVIPS model parameters.

Viscoplaticity↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Thermo-Poro-Mechanical Modeling of RTV Intumescence

Room temperature vulcanizing (RTV) silicone is a high-temperature adhesive used as a gap-filler between heatshield tiles in numerous entry missions. Its propensity to intumesce, or swell upon exposure to heat, is a well-known effect that needs to be carefully quantified during design. At tile interfaces of charring ablators, intumescence, combined with differential recession, could cause the gap filler to protrude past the ablator outer mold line, forming a “fence”. Fencing can in turn cause transition to turbulence of the flow wetting the heat shield, leading to augmented surface heating. Recent experiments conducted at the Plasmatron X facility, the high enthalpy wind tunnel of the Center for Hypersonics and Entry Systems Studies, have shown prominent fencing of RTV gap fillers in PICA, under both nitrogen and air plasmas. Similar observations are well known in the arcjet literature. Further experiments under controlled environment, performed using in situ X-ray micro-computed tomography (micro-CT) at the Advanced Light Source (ALS), have shown heating rate-dependent swelling and shrinkage of RTV during pyrolysis. To simulate RTV intumescence, a novel model was introduced in the Porous Materials Analysis Toolbox based on OpenFOAM, PATO, to account for pore-pressure buildup within both closed- and open-pores. The governing equation for the thermo-poro-mechanical response were developed, assuming linear elasticity for the charring silicone. A new multi-pyrolysis model that tracks non-monotonic advancement of material properties with pyrolysis was proposed. This model addresses the limitations of state-of-the-art ablator models to capture the different stages of thermal degradation and coupled thermomechanics. Swelling of RTV was simulated using the new thermo-poro-mechanical model and compared against in situ micro-CT data. Results showed good agreement in intumescence height and temperature profiles at all heating rates, indicating that the key factor contributing to RTV swelling is the internal pressure build-up within closed- and open-pores. As RTV is cured into a soft (rubbery) compound with low-porosity and permeability, initial temperature increase and pyrolysis gas production cause a significant increase of internal pressure, causing a pronounced volume growth. As thermal degradation progresses, rigidization of the silicone occurs due to char hardening which counteract volume shrinkage after gas pressure relief. Overall, our model shows that accounting for changes in properties such porosity, permeability and key thermomechanical coefficients is crucial for capturing the RTV volume change during ablation and enable a predictive capability for heatshield tile interface response. A plan for future calibration of thermomechanical properties evolution during degradation is discussed, as a key next step to close the new model.

RTV↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Thermo-Poro-Mechanical Modeling of RTV Intumescence

silicone intumescence↗

DOE OSTI2019

Tomographic Galaxy Clustering with the Subaru Hyper Suprime-Cam First Year Public Data Release

We analyze the clustering of galaxies in the first public data release of the HSC Subaru Strategic Program. Despite the relatively small footprints of the observed fields, the data are an excellent proxy for the deep photometric datasets that will be acquired by LSST, and are therefore an ideal test bed for the analysis methods being implemented by the LSST DESC. We select a magnitude limited sample with $i<24.5$ and analyze it in four redshift bins covering $0.15\lesssim z \lesssim1.5$. We carry out a Fourier-space analysis of the two-point clustering of this sample, including all auto- and cross-correlations. We demonstrate the use of map-level deprojection methods to account for fluctuations in the galaxy number density caused by observational systematics. Through an HOD analysis, we place constraints on the characteristic halo masses of this sample, finding a good fit up to scales $k_{\rm max}=1\,{\rm Mpc}^{-1}$, including both auto- and cross-correlations. Our results show monotonically decreasing average halo masses, which can be interpreted in terms of the drop-out of red galaxies at high redshifts for a flux-limited sample. In terms of photometric redshift systematics, we show that additional care is needed in order to marginalize over uncertainties in the redshift distribution in galaxy clustering, and that these uncertainties can be constrained by including cross-correlations. We are able to make a $\sim3\sigma$ detection of lensing magnification in the HSC data. Our results are stable to variations in $\sigma_8$ and $\Omega_c$ and we find constraints that agree well with measurements from Planck and low-redshift probes. Finally, we use our pipeline to study the clustering of galaxies as a function of limiting flux, and provide a simple fitting function for the linear galaxy bias for magnitude limited samples as a function of limiting magnitude and redshift. [abridged]

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2020

Apparatus, system and method for highlighting activity-induced change in multi-pass synthetic aperture radar imagery

Described herein are various technologies relating to constructing a differenced change product (DCP) image. A plurality of synthetic aperture radar (SAR) images of a scene are generated based upon radar signals directed towards and reflected off of the scene, and a plurality of coherence change detection (CCD) images of the scene are generated based upon the SAR images. The CCD images are registered with one another, and their pixel values re-scaled according to a monotonic mapping function. The DCP image is generated based upon a computed pixel-wise difference between a pair of the re-scaled CCD images. The DCP image identifies locations in the scene where human activity-induced change is likely to have occurred between a pair of SAR passes of the scene.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2020

A ``Tail" of Two Cities: Fatality-based Modeling of COVID-19 Evolution in New York City and Cook County, IL

I describe $SIR$ modeling of the COVID-19 pandemic in two U.S. urban environments, New York City (NYC) and Cook County, IL, from onset through the month of June, 2020. Since testing was not widespread early in the pandemic in the U.S., I do not use data on confirmed cases and rely solely on public fatality data to estimate model parameters. Fits to the first 20 days of data determine a degenerate combination of the basic reproduction number, $R_0$, and the mean time to removal from the infectious population, $\gamma^{-1}$, with $\gamma (R_0-1) = 0.25 (0.21)$ inverse days for NYC (Cook County). Equivalently, the initial doubling time was $t_d = 2.8 (3.4)$ days for NYC (Cook). The early fatality data suggest that both locations had infections in early February. I model the mitigation measures implemented in mid-March in both locations (distancing, quarantine, isolation, etc) via a time-dependent reproduction number $R_t$ that declines monotonically from $R_0$ to a sma ller asymptotic value, with a parameterized functional form. The timing (mid-March) and duration (several days) of the transitions in $R_t$ appear well determined by the data. However, the fatality data determine only a degenerate combination of the parameters $R_0$, the percentage reduction in social contact due to mitigation measures, $X$, and the infection fatality rate (IFR), $f$. With flat priors, based on simulations the NYC model parameters have 95.45\% credible intervals of $R_0 = 3.0-5.4$, $X= 80-99.9\%$ and $f=2-6\%$, with $5-13\%$ of the population asymptotically infected. A strong external prior indicating a lower value of $f$ or of $\gamma^{-1}$ would imply lower values of $R_0$ and $X$ and higher percentage infection of the population. For Cook County, the evolution was qualitatively different: after mitigation measures were implemented, the daily fatality counts reached a plateau for about a month before tailing off. This is consistent with an $SIR$ model that exhibits ``critical slowing-down", in which $R_t$ plateaus ! at a value just above unity. For Cook County, the 95.45\% credible intervals for the model parameters are much broader and shifted downward, $R_0=1.4-4.7$, $X=26-54\%$, and $f=0.1-0.6\%$ with $15-88\%$ of the population asymptotically infected. Despite the apparently lower efficacy of its social contact reduction measures, Cook County has had significantly fewer fatalities per population than NYC, $D_\infty/N=100$ vs. 270 per 100,000. In the model, this is attributed to the lower inferred IFR for Cook; an external prior pointing to similar values of the IFR for the two locations would instead chalk up the difference in $D/N$ to differences in the relative growth rate of the disease. I derive a model-dependent threshold, $X^{crit}_e$, for `safe' re-opening, that is, for easing of contact reduction that would not trigger a second wave; for NYC, the models predict that increasing social contact by more than 20\% from post-mitigation levels will lead to renewed spread, while for Cook County the threshold value is very uncertain, given the parameter degeneracies. The timing of 2nd-wave growth will depend on the amplitude of contact increase relative to $X^{crit}_e$ and on the asymptotic growth rate, and the impact in terms of fatalities will depend on the parameter $f$.

Frieman, Joshua↗

DOE OSTI2020

The Kalai-Smorodinsky solution for many-objective Bayesian optimization

An ongoing aim of research in multiobjective Bayesian optimization is to extend its applicability to a large number of objectives. While coping with a limited budget of evaluations, recovering the set of optimal compromise solutions generally requires numerous observations and is less interpretable since this set tends to grow larger with the number of objectives. We thus propose to focus on a specific solution originating from game theory, the Kalai-Smorodinsky solution, which possesses attractive properties. In particular, it ensures equal marginal gains over all objectives. We further make it insensitive to a monotonic transformation of the objectives by considering the objectives in the copula space. A novel tailored algorithm is proposed to search for the solution, in the form of a Bayesian optimization algorithm: sequential sampling decisions are made based on acquisition functions that derive from an instrumental Gaussian process prior. Our approach is tested on four problems with respectively four, six, eight, and nine objectives. The method is available in the R package GPGame available on CRAN at https://cran.r-project.org/package=GPGame.

Game theory↗