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Results for “modeling and performance analysis”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 1,675 records · Page 93
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS1995

Linear and nonlinear trending and prediction for AVHRR time series data

The variability of AVHRR calibration coefficient in time was analyzed using algorithms of linear and non-linear time series analysis. Specifically we have used the spline trend modeling, autoregressive process analysis, incremental neural network learning algorithm and redundancy functional testing. The analysis performed on available AVHRR data sets revealed that (1) the calibration data have nonlinear dependencies, (2) the calibration data depend strongly on the target temperature, (3) both calibration coefficients and the temperature time series can be modeled, in the first approximation, as autonomous dynamical systems, (4) the high frequency residuals of the analyzed data sets can be best modeled as an autoregressive process of the 10th degree. We have dealt with a nonlinear identification problem and the problem of noise filtering (data smoothing). The system identification and filtering are significant problems for AVHRR data sets. The algorithms outlined in this study can be used for the future EOS missions. Prediction and smoothing algorithms for time series of calibration data provide a functional characterization of the data. Those algorithms can be particularly useful when calibration data are incomplete or sparse.

Smid, J.↗
NASA NTRS2010

An Overview of Thermal Distortion Modeling, Analysis, and Model Validation for the JWST ISIM Structure

This paper describes thermal distortion modeling, analysis, and model validation activities completed in support of the design and qualification of the JWST ISIM Structure. An overview of the building blocks approach utilized to develop the structural design and modeling capabilities to meet thermal distortion performance requirements will be provided. This effort culminated in a cryogenic (35 K) distortion test of the flight ISIM Structure hardware, the Cryoset Test that both verified the thermal distortion performance and provided data for validation of the structural models. An overview of the modeling, analysis, and model validation development effort will be discussed, and the results of the Cryoset Test and the subsequent model validation will be described.

Johnston, John↗
DOE OSTI2025

Elastic Bayesian Model Calibration

Functional data are ubiquitous in scientific modeling. For instance, quantities of interest are modeled as functions of time, space, energy, density, etc. Uncertainty quantification methods for computer models with functional response have resulted in tools for emulation, sensitivity analysis, and calibration that are widely used. However, many of these tools do not perform well when the computer model’s parameters control both the amplitude variation of the functional output and its alignment (or phase variation). This paper introduces a framework for Bayesian model calibration when the model responses are misaligned functional data. The approach generates two types of data out of the misaligned functional responses: (1) aligned functions so that the amplitude variation is isolated and (2) warping functions that isolate the phase variation. These two types of data are created for the computer simulation data (both of which may be emulated) and the experimental data. The calibration approach uses both types so that it seeks to match both the amplitude and phase of the experimental data. The framework is careful to respect constraints that arise, especially when modeling phase variation, and is framed in a way that it can be done with readily available calibration software. In conclusion, we demonstrate the techniques on two simulated data examples and on two dynamic material science problems: a strength model calibration using flyer plate experiments and an equation of state model calibration using experiments performed on the Sandia National Laboratories’ Z-machine.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2026

Comparative Performance of Gaussian Plume and Backward Lagrangian Stochastic Models for Near-Field Methane Emission Estimation Using a Single Controlled Release Experiment

Methane (CH 4 ) is a major component of natural gas and a potent greenhouse gas. Increasing atmospheric methane concentrations are attributed to emissive anthropogenic activities by an average of 13 ppb per yr since 2020 and are linked to a changing global climate. Mitigating CH 4 emissions from oil and gas production sites has recently become a target to reduce overall greenhouse gas emissions; however, monitoring the efficacy of mitigation strategies depends on accurate quantification of CH 4 emissions at the facility-level. Near-field quantification of methane (CH 4 ) emissions from oil and gas (O&G) facilities remains challenging due to the effects of atmospheric variability and sensor configuration on atmospheric dispersion models. This study evaluates the performance of two atmospheric dispersion models, the Gaussian plume (GP) and backward Lagrangian stochastic (bLS), by comparing calculated CH 4 emissions to controlled single-point emissions between 0.4 and 5.2 kg CH 4 h −1 . Emissions were calculated by both models using 121 individual sets of measurements comprising five-minute averaged downwind methane mixing ratios and matching meteorological data. The comparison shows that the bLS approach achieved a higher proportion of emission estimates within a factor of two (FAC2) of the known emission rates compared to the GP approach. The emissions calculated by the bLS model also had a lower multiplicative error and reduced bias relative to GP. Other error-based metrics further confirmed the bLS model performed better, as it yielded lower RMSE and MAE than GP. Statistical analysis of the emission data shows that the lateral and vertical alignment of the source and the sensor plays a critical role in emission estimations, as measurements made closer to the plume centerline and at a distance between 40 and 80 m downwind yielded the best FAC2 agreement. High wind meander degraded the ability of both approaches to generate representative emissions, particularly with the GP approach, as it violates the modeling approach’s assumption of steady-state emissions. Data suggest emissions calculated by the bLS model are comprehensively in better agreement, but the computational demands of the modeling approach and integration into fenceline systems limit real-time applicability. While these results provide insight into model performance under controlled near-field conditions, their applicability to more complex or heterogeneous oil and gas production environments (e.g., the regions Marcellus or Unita Basins) remains limited and uncertain.

gaussian plume↗
NASA NTRS2015

Experimental and Numerical Analysis of Triaxially Braided Composites Utilizing a Modified Subcell Modeling Approach

A combined experimental and analytical approach was performed for characterizing and modeling triaxially braided composites with a modified subcell modeling strategy. Tensile coupon tests were conducted on a [0deg/60deg/-60deg] braided composite at angles [0deg, 30deg, 45deg, 60deg and 90deg] relative to the axial tow of the braid. It was found that measured coupon strength varied significantly with the angle of the applied load and each coupon direction exhibited unique final failures. The subcell modeling approach implemented into the finite element software LS-DYNA was used to simulate the various tensile coupon test angles. The modeling approach was successful in predicting both the coupon strength and reported failure mode for the 0deg, 30deg and 60deg loading directions. The model over-predicted the strength in the 90deg direction; however, the experimental results show a strong influence of free edge effects on damage initiation and failure. In the absence of these local free edge effects, the subcell modeling approach showed promise as a viable and computationally efficient analysis tool for triaxially braided composite structures. Future work will focus on validation of the approach for predicting the impact response of the braided composite against flat panel impact tests.

Polymer Matrix Composites↗
NASA NTRS2015

Experimental and Numerical Analysis of Triaxially Braided Composites Utilizing a Modified Subcell Modeling Approach

A combined experimental and analytical approach was performed for characterizing and modeling triaxially braided composites with a modified subcell modeling strategy. Tensile coupon tests were conducted on a [0deg/60deg/-60deg] braided composite at angles of 0deg, 30deg, 45deg, 60deg and 90deg relative to the axial tow of the braid. It was found that measured coupon strength varied significantly with the angle of the applied load and each coupon direction exhibited unique final failures. The subcell modeling approach implemented into the finite element software LS-DYNA was used to simulate the various tensile coupon test angles. The modeling approach was successful in predicting both the coupon strength and reported failure mode for the 0deg, 30deg and 60deg loading directions. The model over-predicted the strength in the 90deg direction; however, the experimental results show a strong influence of free edge effects on damage initiation and failure. In the absence of these local free edge effects, the subcell modeling approach showed promise as a viable and computationally efficient analysis tool for triaxially braided composite structures. Future work will focus on validation of the approach for predicting the impact response of the braided composite against flat panel impact tests.

Micromechanics↗
DOE OSTI2023

Vertical distribution of boundary layer new particle formation and implications for nanoparticle growth mechanisms (Final Report)

New particles can form high above ground in the atmosphere before such formation events are observed by ground-based instruments. Once formed, these particles can take up significant amounts of water vapor, which has implications on the mechanisms by which nanoparticles grow and, ultimately, impact cloud formation processes. These observations motivated the research performed in this project using a combination of modeling, laboratory experiments, and the analysis of field observations. We hypothesized is that ground-based measurements do not always accurately represent the location and timing of new particle formation events, nor do they adequately characterize the dominant physical and chemical processes that are responsible for the subsequent growth of newly formed particles. Essentially, we wanted to study the new particle formation process under conditions that we expect may be more relevant to the actual location in the atmosphere where such events take place, which are often characterized by higher relative humidities, lower temperatures, and a broader range of precursors and oxidants compared to those observed at ground level. This project had two main objectives, each of which directly addressed our hypothesis. Our first is to investigate the timing, distribution, meteorological conditions, and nanoparticle properties associated with boundary layer new particle formation through the analysis of ARM field campaigns such as HI-SCALE and long-term observations and observations performed in other locales such as in China and India where atmospheric conditions could play a crucial role in determining the mechanisms of new particle formation. This activity provided a comprehensive description, both in time and in space, of the gases and nanoparticle properties that are responsible for these events. We also performed modeling studies to explore the vertical profile and timing of new particle formation events from these campaigns. Our second objective was to perform laboratory and process-level modeling studies to investigate the role that conditions such as low ambient temperature, high relative humidity, and different oxidants such as nitrate radical play in determining unique chemical pathways for nanoparticle growth. In doing so, we revisited the representation of nanoparticle growth in global models and updated assumptions of formation and growth based on the findings of the field, laboratory, and process-level-model work. Our research provides crucial insights into the most important regions of the atmospheric boundary layer for future observational and modeling studies. It also identifies the most relevant environmental conditions, precursors, and oxidants that are responsible for nanoparticle growth, which will aid in the design of laboratory studies and process-level model experiments. The unique pathways that we discovered can be incorporated into regional and global models, thereby improving predictions and attribution of the role of new particle formation in, e.g., air pollution formation and cloud properties.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

$\overline{TKE}$ Parameterization and $\bar{v}$ Uncertainty Analysis for CGMF

Previous work was performed on tuning CGMF parameters for 235 U, 238 U, and Plutonium isotopes. Now work is being done to tune minor uranium isotopes. However, uranium isotopes like 232 U and 236 U have almost no experimental data. We are applying cross-isotope models to extrapolate and tune CGMF on isotopes that lack experimental data. There exist several internal CGMF physics quantities that affect the output of CGMF—multi-chance fission probability, excitation energy sharing, spin-cutoff factor, spin scaling, and fragment total kinetic energy to name a few. The mean fragment total kinetic energy, $\overline{TKE}$, is particularly interesting because of its strong anti-correlation with $\bar{v}$. We are most interested in the mean fragment total kinetic energy before neutron emissions. $\overline{TKE}$ is assumed to be pre-neutron emission unless otherwise stated. Currently in CGMF, the $\overline{TKE}$ model for 233,234,235,238 U are tuned independently to reproduce ν for the associated isotopes. In this report, we will tune a cross-isotope $\overline{TKE}$ model to experimental $\overline{TKE}$ data for 232,233,234,235,236,238 U. Because of the unreliable and sparse nature of $\overline{TKE}$ experimental data, future work will use more reliable experimental $\bar{v}$ data to infer the $\overline{TKE}$ model (and likely other internal CGMF parameters) for uranium isotopes. Such work has been performed previously using a sensitivity analysis and Kalman filter methods.

07 ISOTOPE AND RADIATION SOURCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Thermal WIMPs and the scale of new physics: global fits of Dirac dark matter effective field theories

We assess the status of a wide class of WIMP dark matter (DM) models in light of the latest experimental results using the global fitting framework GAMBIT. We perform a global analysis of effective field theory (EFT) operators describing the interactions between a gauge-singlet Dirac fermion and the Standard Model quarks, the gluons and the photon. In this bottom-up approach, we simultaneously vary the coefficients of 14 such operators up to dimension 7, along with the DM mass, the scale of new physics and several nuisance parameters. Our likelihood functions include the latest data from Planck, direct and indirect detection experiments, and the LHC. For DM masses below 100 GeV, we find that it is impossible to satisfy all constraints simultaneously while maintaining EFT validity at LHC energies. For new physics scales around 1 TeV, our results are influenced by several small excesses in the LHC data and depend on the prescription that we adopt to ensure EFT validity. Furthermore, we find large regions of viable parameter space where the EFT is valid and the relic density can be reproduced, implying that WIMPs can still account for the DM of the universe while being consistent with the latest data.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Bayesian Inference of the Fluctuating Proton Shape in DIS and Hadronic Collisions

We determine the likelihood distribution for the model parameters describing the event-by-event fluctuating proton geometry at small $x$ by performing a Bayesian analysis within the Color Glass Condensate framework. The exclusive J/ψ production data from HERA is found to constrain the model parameters well, and we demonstrate that complementary constraints can be obtained from simulations of Pb+Pb collisions at the LHC.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
NASA NTRS1995

The specification-based validation of reliable multicast protocol: Problem Report

Reliable Multicast Protocol (RMP) is a communication protocol that provides an atomic, totally ordered, reliable multicast service on top of unreliable IP multicasting. In this report, we develop formal models for RMP using existing automated verification systems, and perform validation on the formal RMP specifications. The validation analysis help identifies some minor specification and design problems. We also use the formal models of RMP to generate a test suite for conformance testing of the implementation. Throughout the process of RMP development, we follow an iterative, interactive approach that emphasizes concurrent and parallel progress of implementation and verification processes. Through this approach, we incorporate formal techniques into our development process, promote a common understanding for the protocol, increase the reliability of our software, and maintain high fidelity between the specifications of RMP and its implementation.

Wu, Yunqing↗
NASA NTRS1995

The Specification-Based Validation of Reliable Multicast Protocol

Reliable Multicast Protocol (RMP) is a communication protocol that provides an atomic, totally ordered, reliable multicast service on top of unreliable IP multicasting. In this report, we develop formal models for RMP using existing automated verification systems, and perform validation on the formal RMP specifications. The validation analysis help identifies some minor specification and design problems. We also use the formal models of RMP to generate a test suite for conformance testing of the implementation. Throughout the process of RMP development, we follow an iterative, interactive approach that emphasizes concurrent and parallel progress of the implementation and verification processes. Through this approach, we incorporate formal techniques into our development process, promote a common understanding for the protocol, increase the reliability of our software, and maintain high fidelity between the specifications of RMP and its implementation.

Wu, Yunqing↗
DOE OSTI2024

Residential Facade Retrofits Modeling: Results and Documentation

Utilizing NREL's ResStock analysis tool and datasets, we performed an economic analysis for various facade upgrade combinations and strategies. This analysis considers the combined life-cycle cost of re-siding and window and insulation upgrades including both home value impacts and recurring bill savings estimates from a ResStock analysis, for varying years of home ownership.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
NASA NTRS1972

Experimental nuclear cross sections for spacecraft shield analysis

Experiments have been performed to validate and to supplement the intranuclear cascade model as a method for estimating cross sections of importance to spacecraft shield design. The experimental situation is inconclusive particularly for neutron-producing reactions, but is relatively sound for reaction cross sections and for proton spectra at several hundred MeV at medium forward angles. Secondary photon contributions are imprecisely known.

Peelle, R. W.↗
NASA NTRS1982

The effects of transmitter/receiver clock time-base instability on coherent communication system performance

The purpose of this paper is to present a model and associated analysis of the deleterious effects which both transmitter and receiver data clock time-base instability have on bit-error probability. The types of time-base instability modeled and analyzed include what is commonly referred to as bit jitter (epoch jitter), bit-jitter rate (time interval jitter), and data asymmetry. The bit-error probability is determined as a function of the statistical characteristics of the time-base instability, the data-transition density, the signal-to-noise ratio in the bit-rate bandwidth and the mechanizations of both the data-bit detector and bit synchronizer. The latter is manifested through the bit synchronizer's natural frequency and loop-damping parameters. Numerical results which indicate the sensitivity of the system bit-error rate to various parameters of the model are provided.

Chie, C. M.↗