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At least 1,675 records · Page 93

Framework for Modeling High-Impact, Low-Frequency Power Grid Events to Support Risk-Informed Decisions

Natural and man-made hazardous events resulting in loss of grid infrastructure assets challenge the electric power grid’s security and resilience. However, the planning and allocation of appropriate contingency resources for such events requires an understanding of their likelihood and the extent of their potential impact. Where these events are of low likelihood, a risk-informed perspective on planning can be problematic as there exists an insufficient statistical basis to directly estimate the probabilities and consequences of their occurrence. Since risk-informed decisions rely on such knowledge, a basis for modeling the risk associated with high-impact low frequency events (HILFs) is essential. Insights from such a model can inform where resources are most rationally and effectively expended. The present effort is focused on development of a HILF risk assessment framework. Such a framework is intended to provide the conceptual and overarching technical basis for the development of HILF risk models that can inform decision makers across numerous stakeholder sectors. The North American Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC) 2014 Standard TPL-001-4 considers severe events for transmission reliability planning, but does not address events of such severity that they have the potential to fail a substantial fraction of grid assets over a region, such as geomagnetic disturbances (GMD), extreme seismic events, and coordinated cyber-physical attacks. These are beyond current planning guidelines. As noted, the risks associated with such events cannot be statistically estimated based on historic experience; however, there does exist a stable of risk modeling techniques for rare events that have proven of value across a wide range of engineering application domains. There is an active and growing interest in evaluating the value of risk management techniques in the State transmission planning and emergency response communities, some of this interest in the context of grid modernization activities. The availability of a grid HILF risk model, integrated across multi-hazard domains which, when interrogated, can support transparent, defensible and effective decisions, is an attractive prospect among these communities. In this report, we document an integrated HILF risk framework intended to inform the development of risk models. These models would be based on the systematic and comprehensive (to within scope) characterization of hazards to the level of detail required for modeling risk, identification of the stressors associated with the hazards (i.e., the means of impacting grid and supporting infrastructure), characterization of the vulnerability of assets to these stressors and the probabilities of asset compromise, the grid’s dynamic response to the asset failures, and assessment of subsequent severities of consequence with respect to selected impact metrics, such as power outage duration and geographic reach. Specifically, the current framework is being developed to;1. Provide the conceptual and overarching technical paradigms for the development of risk models; 2. Identify the classes of models required to implement the framework - providing examples of existing models, and also identifying where modeling gaps exist; 3. Identify the types of data required, addressing circumstances under which data are sparse and the formal elicitation of informed judgment might be required; and 4. Identify means by which the resultant risk models might be interrogated to form the necessary basis for risk management.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

SE Requirements Development Tool User Guide

The LANL Systems Engineering Requirements Development Tool (SERDT) is a data collection tool created in InfoPath for use with the Los Alamos National Laboratory’s (LANL) SharePoint sites. Projects can fail if a clear definition of the final product requirements is not performed. For projects to be successful requirements must be defined early in the project and those requirements must be tracked during execution of the project to ensure the goals of the project are met. Therefore, the focus of this tool is requirements definition. The content of this form is based on International Council on Systems Engineering (INCOSE) and Department of Defense (DoD) process standards and allows for single or collaborative input. The “Scoping” section is where project information is entered by the project team prior to requirements development, and includes definitions and examples to assist the user in completing the forms. The data entered will be used to define the requirements and once the form is filled out, a “Requirements List” is automatically generated and a Word document is created and saved to a SharePoint document library. SharePoint also includes the ability to download the requirements data defined in the InfoPath from into an Excel spreadsheet. This User Guide will assist you in navigating through the data entry process.

96 KNOWLEDGE MANAGEMENT AND PRESERVATION↗

Multi-Kernel Adaptive Support Vector Machine for Scalable Predictive Maintenance

Application of data-driven solutions across an industry is challenging, since the data are often stored locally, and increasing privacy and security concerns restrict access to the data. In addition, it is highly unlikely that all potential data patterns are captured in a single data source. Because it is highly unlikely that all potential data patterns are captured in a single data source, machine learning (ML) models developed from a single source cannot be robust enough. An alternative is to train the ML model at each source and develop a distributed knowledge discovery and aggregation approach to build global knowledge. In this paper, we develop and demonstrate a distributed ML model, federated transfer learning (FTL), using a multi-kernel-based adaptive support vector machine (MK-A-SVM). For federated learning (FL), the multi-kernel (MK) approach enables feature-specific model aggregation under data heterogeneity; whereas for transfer learning (TL) the adaptive model enables utilization of an aggregated model from a different task. The proposed approach is validated using nuclear power plant (NPP) vertical motor-driven pump data to predict the health condition of vertical motor-driven pumps as an anomaly detection. The efficiency of the proposed approach is also quantified and compared with neural network.

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Methane utilization in Methylomicrobium alcaliphilum 20Z R : a systems approach

Biological methane utilization, one of the main sinks of the greenhouse gas in nature, represents an attractive platform for production of fuels and value-added chemicals. Despite the progress made in our understanding of the individual parts of methane utilization, our knowledge of how the whole-cell metabolic network is organized and coordinated is limited. Attractive growth and methane-conversion rates, a complete and expert-annotated genome sequence, as well as large enzymatic, 13 C-labeling, and transcriptomic datasets make Methylomicrobium alcaliphilum 20Z R an exceptional model system for investigating methane utilization networks. Here we present a comprehensive metabolic framework of methane and methanol utilization in M. alcaliphilum 20Z R . A set of novel metabolic reactions governing carbon distribution across central pathways in methanotrophic bacteria was predicted by in-silico simulations and confirmed by global non-targeted metabolomics and enzymatic evidences. Our data highlight the importance of substitution of ATP-linked steps with PPi-dependent reactions and support the presence of a carbon shunt from acetyl-CoA to the pentose-phosphate pathway and highly branched TCA cycle. The diverged TCA reactions promote balance between anabolic reactions and redox demands. As a result, the computational framework of C 1 -metabolism in methanotrophic bacteria can represent an efficient tool for metabolic engineering or ecosystem modeling.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

Investigation of Proposed Ladderane Biosynthetic Genes from Anammox Bacteria by Heterologous Expression in E. coli

Ladderanes are hydrocarbon chains with three or five linearly concatenated cyclobutane rings that are uniquely produced as membrane lipid components by anammox (anaerobic ammonia-oxidizing) bacteria. By virtue of their angle and torsional strain, ladderanes are unusually energetic compounds, and if produced biochemically by engineered microbes, could serve as renewable, high-energy-density jet fuel components. The biochemistry and genetics underlying the ladderane biosynthetic pathway are unknown, however, previous studies have identified a pool of 34 candidate genes from the anammox bacterium, Kuenenia stuttgartiensis , some or all of which may be involved with ladderane fatty acid biosynthesis. The goal of the present study was to establish a systematic means of testing the candidate genes from K. stuttgartiensis for involvement in ladderane biosynthesis through heterologous expression in E. coli under anaerobic conditions. This study describes an efficient means of assembly of synthesized, codon-optimized candidate ladderane biosynthesis genes in synthetic operons that allows for changes to regulatory element sequences, as well as modular assembly of multiple operons for simultaneous heterologous expression in E. coli (or potentially other microbial hosts). We also describe in vivo functional tests of putative anammox homologs of the phytoene desaturase CrtI, which plays an important role in the hypothesized ladderane pathway, and a method for soluble purification of one of these enzymes. This study is, to our knowledge, the first experimental effort focusing on the role of specific anammox genes in the production of ladderanes, and lays the foundation for future efforts toward determination of the ladderane biosynthetic pathway. Our substantial, but far from comprehensive, efforts at elucidating the ladderane biosynthetic pathway were not successful. We invite the scientific community to take advantage of the considerable synthetic biology resources and experimental results developed in this study to elucidate the biosynthetic pathway that produces unique and intriguing ladderane lipids.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Time-resolved measurements of liquid–vapor thermal interactions throughout the full life-cycle of sliding bubbles at subcooled flow boiling conditions

The local thermal response of the liquid phase to the presence of sliding bubbles was measured with an infrared camera in subcooled flow-boiling conditions. These measurements were complemented with two high-speed cameras to capture the corresponding bubbles’ dynamics. The liquid–vapor interactions were captured in detail over the full life-cycle of sliding bubbles. Four distinctive phases for the bubble life-cycle were identified: A) Spherical bubble growth with strong attachment, B) Deformed bubble growth with weak attachment, C) Detachment with hot liquid quenching, and D) Cold liquid quenching. Here, to the best of the authors’ knowledge, it is the first time that the “detachment with hot liquid quenching phase has been observed. This phase is characterized by a “hot” thermal footprint during the bubble detachment process. It is believed that this footprint is constituted partially from hot liquid released during the condensation of the recently detached bubble, and from released hot fluid previously collected by the bubble during sliding. In addition, this work reveals that using traditional high-speed visualization techniques (side-view camera only) can lead to an underestimation of approximately 40% of the actual bubble–wall contact diameter (dc) which was inferred from the infrared camera measurements.

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Optimal Ground Source Heat Pump System Design

Despite the facts that GSHPs first gained popularity as early as the 1940’s and they can achieve 30 to 60 percent in energy savings and carbon emission reductions relative to conventional HVAC systems, the use of geothermal energy in the U.S. has been less than 1 percent of the total energy consumption. The key barriers preventing this technically-mature technology from reaching its full commercial potential have been its high installation cost and limited consumer knowledge and trust in GSHP systems to deliver the technology in a cost-effective manner in the market place. Led by ENVIRON, with support from University Hartford and University of Vermont, the team developed and tested a software-based a decision making tool (‘OptGSHP’) for the least-cost design of ground-source heat pump (‘GSHP’) systems. OptGSHP combines state of the art optimization algorithms with GSHP-specific HVAC and groundwater flow and heat transport simulation. The particular strength of OptGSHP is in integrating heat transport due to groundwater flow into the design, which most of the GSHP designs do not get credit for and therefore are overdesigned.

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DOE OE Energy Storage Systems Safety Roadmap Focus on Codes and Standards - July 2017

The goal of the DOE OE ESS Safety Roadmap1 is to foster confidence in the safety and reliability of energy storage systems. There are three interrelated objectives to support the realization of that goal: research, codes and standards and communication/coordination. The objective focused on codes and standards is To apply research and development to support efforts that are focused on ensuring that codes and standards are available to enable the safe implementation of energy storage systems in a comprehensive, non-discriminatory and science-based manner. The following activities are intended to support that objective and realization of the goal: a. Review and assess codes and standards which affect the design, installation, and operation of ESS systems. b. Identify gaps in knowledge that require research and analysis that can serve as a basis for criteria in those codes and standards. c. Identify areas in codes and standards that are potentially in need of revision or enhancement and can benefit from activities conducted under research and development. d. Develop input for new or revisions to existing codes and standards through individual stakeholders, facilitated task forces, or through laboratory staff supporting these efforts. The purpose of this document is to support the above activities by providing information on current and upcoming efforts being conducted by U.S. standards developing organizations (SDOs) and other entities that are focused on energy storage system safety.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

Development of In-Situ Corrosion Kinetics and Salt Property Measurements (Final Technical Report)

The goal of this research is to fill the knowledge gaps of salt properties and gain a fundamental understanding of corrosion mechanisms, thereby to guiding material selections of salts and containment materials. The proposed research is focused on building unique cross-cutting research capabilities that can perform research and analysis relevant to the following three research topics important for Generation 3 Concentrating Solar Power Systems: (1) Material characterization including investigations of fluid thermophysical properties and stability, (2) Durability testing of containment materials, and (3) Corrosion behavior characterization relative to levels of known contaminants (e.g., water and oxygen) in Heat Transfer Fluid (HTF).

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Valuation of ecosystem services in alternative bioenergy landscape scenarios

Abstract Agricultural land in the Midwest is a source of food and fuel, as well as biodiversity. It is also a cause of excess nutrients that make their way to the Mississippi River and the Gulf of Mexico. To address unsustainable changes to biogeochemical cycles and ecosystem functions, a multidisciplinary approach involving social science, natural science, and engineering is often effective. Given the potential of second‐generation biofuels, and capitalizing on the deep‐rooted perennial bioenergy crops capable of thriving in poor soils, we demonstrated an integrated socio‐environmental analysis of the impacts of growing switchgrass within row‐crop landscapes in Illinois. In this study, we model land use scenarios that incorporate switchgrass as a biofuel crop in a Midwest corn‐belt watershed using the Soil Water Assessment Tool coupled with an economic analysis for the Vermilion Basin in Illinois. We estimated the values of ecosystem services under an alternative bioenergy landscape, including commodity and bioenergy crops, changes in biogeochemistry, and recreational services. The estimated annual values of nitrate and sediment reduction attributed to bioenergy crops range from $38 million to $97 million and $16,000 to $197,000, respectively. The annual value of carbon dioxide emission reduction ranges from $1.8 million to $6.1 million based on the initial crop rotation pattern. Estimated average annual values for wildlife viewing, water‐based recreation, and pheasant hunting are $1.24 million, $0.17 million, and $0.3 million, respectively. To our knowledge, this study represents the first effort to comprehensively quantify ecosystem services using a process‐based model, and estimate their value in an alternative bioenergy landscape. The information we generate could aid in understanding the potential for biomass production from marginal land and the total economic value of the landscape at various spatial scales. The framework is useful in fostering alternative bioenergy landscapes with synergies in a food, energy, and conservation nexus.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

A Strategy for Forced Oscillation Suppression

Wide-area time-synchronized measurements have recently revealed troublesome forced oscillations (FOs) within modern synchronized power grids. In some cases, these FOs represent a dangerous hazard to the system. Recent research has focused on locating the source of FOs to provide operators with knowledge for mitigating their impact locally. This paper presents a complementary mitigation strategy, which is to purposely induce a second oscillation into the grid which cancels the impact of the FO. Such a strategy is complementary in that it may provide valuable time to operators attempting to locate the FOs source and to determine how to rectify it. This paper presents a suppression control strategy which modulates controllable devices to automatically cancel the impact of the FO without the need for locating the source of the original FO. The strategy is based upon tuned feedback control. In this study, the approach is demonstrated on a simulation system via modulation of inverter-based generation.

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Groundwater and Intruder Radionuclide Screening

Solid Waste Management (SWM) operates the E-Area Low-Level Waste Facility (ELLWF) where low level on-site and off-site solid waste streams are buried. The facility has been in operation since late 1994 and is currently projected to remain in operation until 2065. This facility can accommodate a broad range of waste forms resulting from the six different types of disposal unit options (i.e., varying degrees of engineered barriers → trenches to concrete vaults). This facility is currently operating under a Performance Assessment (PA) issued back in 2008, along with several subsequent supporting Special Analyses (SA). The Savannah River National Laboratory (SRNL) developed the prior PAs and SAs and has been tasked to update the facility’s PA. For operating the E-Area facility, a Waste Inventory Tracking System (e.g., WITS) is actively employed by waste generators where every radionuclide entering the facility (to be buried in one of its many disposal units1) must be either directly or indirectly accounted for. Since there is a large number of radionuclides in existence (>3,000), the International Commission on Radiological Protection (ICRP-107) has provided guidance on the subset of radionuclides requiring further assessment in landfills such as the E-Area LLWF. The ICRP-107 publication provides critical radiological information on 1,252 radionuclides of 97 elements. This database is the critical starting point for developing a consistent inventory limit system. The explicit measurement and tracking of all 1,252 ICRP-107 radionuclides can be reduced when process knowledge, burial history, and radiological aspects are factored into conservative groundwater and intruder screening processes. Across the DOE complex these screening processes have been historically performed using the methodology suggested by the National Council on Radiation Protection and Measurements (NCRP) as presented in their original report (NCRP 1984) and then refined in a later report (NCRP 1996). In the recommended screening models employed within this report the traditional NCRP models are updated to better handle progeny and better reflect the known characteristics of E-Area. This improved screening process is referred to as the “NCRP-like” method. Various upgrades to the traditional NCRP methodology have been used by others (e.g., NRC funded effort by Kennedy and Strenge 1992). The more detailed models by Kennedy and Strenge (1992) were considered in this effort and are compared to the results from the more traditional NCRP-like models. The groundwater and inadvertent intruder screening analyses presented in this report start with this 1,252 radionuclide list and reduces it down to more manageable lists that are applicable to the various disposal unit types contained within E-Area. In order to reduce this starting list, some level of exposure risk must be considered acceptable. Historically, a dose (or concentration level) has been compared with a screening criterion set to 1% of a performance measure (e.g., a betagamma dose not to exceed the 4 mrem/yr beta-gamma performance measure x 0.01 = 0.04 mrem/yr). Thus, if a radionuclide produced a bounding or screening-level dose (or concentrations) less than the screening criterion, it could be safely removed from further consideration. Several tiers of screening and bounding level analyses have been considered in this report.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Los Alamos Climatology 2021 Update

The Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL or the Laboratory) operates a Meteorological Monitoring (Met) Program to support LANL emergency response, engineering designs, environmental compliance, environmental assessments, safety evaluations, weather forecasting, environmental monitoring, research programs, and environmental restoration. Weather data has been collected in Los Alamos since 1910. A 30-year averaging period is termed by the National Weather Service (NWS) as a climatic normal, and these statistics are updated every 10 years to represent the current climatic normal conditions. Previous climate statistics are provided in Bowen (1990) for the 1961–1990 averaging period and Dewart et al. (2017) for the 1981–2010 averaging period. No climate statistics were developed for the 1971-2000 averaging period. This report provides climate statistics for the current 30-year 1991–2020 averaging period.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Advancing Enhanced Raman Spectroscopy to Detect and Measure NOW Pheromones (CPRB 2022 proposal)

Insect sex pheromones are chemical compounds that insects release to attract their partners over distances of hundreds of meters or even kilometers, in complete darkness and without any audible signals. Use of synthetic forms of key compounds have in some cases become an essential component of monitoring and/or managing key pests of agricultural crops, including navel orangeworm (Amyelois transitella) (NOW) in California tree nuts. These pheromone-based strategies can include monitoring, mating disruption, mass trapping, attract-and-kill and push-pull. There are currently multiple commercially available mating disruption products available for NOW and recent studies have demonstrated that they can be effectively used to reduce crop damage by this pest. Just how mating disruption works is not fully established and likely varies across products and target species. For instance, the extent to which synthetic pheromones compete with natural pheromone is not well understood, or in the case of monitoring, how efficaciously the insect follows the diffusing plumes, especially across large blocks and at plot borders. Furthermore, there may be specific conditions under which poor or impeded diffusion of synthetic pheromone diminishes the disruption effect, which could result in some males effectively locating females for reproduction. At the same time, many commercially available synthetic lures are also available, and growers have been effectively using them to track population development – although the attractive range of these lures remains unclear. That is, while pheromone lures can attract many moths, the relationship between trap capture and local populations, much less crop damage, remains unclear. Regardless of the emission source (aerosol puffers, meso emitters, lures etc.), we currently lack the ability to fully understand how these synthetic pheromone compounds diffuse away from their point-source of emission – and subsequently how this might affect the efficacy of mating disruption and/or the accuracy of monitoring efforts. Raman spectroscopy (RS) may offer a means to detect synthetic pheromone because of its analytical properties and recent technological advancements. In combination with nanostructured probes, RS has a demonstrated capability to detect volatiles at extremely low concentrations. While other methods for detecting pheromones have proven to be successful, such analytical methods like mass spectrometry (MS) gas chromatography (GC) require sampling in the fields and are not real-time. Other methods such as EAG/ EAD are also invasive (use antennas) but are of course valuable. Opto-electronic, micro and nano sensors just recently enticed interest. We fall in this latter category, proposing the use of optical spectroscopy (Raman) in a fiber aided by nanostructures to provide a chemical fingerprint without transductions and in real-time (i.e. no sampling). To date, we have been able to generate Raman signatures for the main chemicals in synthetic pheromones (a first for science, to the best of our knowledge), observe their trends at different concentrations, and also provide a clear distinction of such signatures in mixed samples via Principal Component Analysis (PCA) – all of which strengthens our conclusions on the ability of RS to detect emissions in more realistic conditions. We also established processes to enhance the detection sensitivity via preconcentration with Solid Phase Micro Extraction (SPME) fibers and Surface Enhanced Raman Spectroscopy (SERS) to increase the overall optical signals. Furthermore, we explored limitations and requirements for detecting from dispensers, lures, or live moths, including Dept. of Energy and CA State regulatory approvals. Finally, we setup some of our first “orchard in a box” experiments to measure pheromone diffusion along with developing appropriate models.

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Neutronics Phenomena Important in Modeling and Simulation of Liquid-Fuel Molten Salt Reactors

This paper discusses liquid-fuel molten salt reactors, how they will operate under normal, transient, and accident conditions, and the results of an expert elicitation to determine the corresponding neutronic phenomena important to understanding their behavior. Identifying these phenomena will enable the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) to develop or identify modeling functionalities and tools required to carry out confirmatory analyses that examine the validity and accuracy of applicants’ calculations and help determine the margin of safety in plant design. NRC frequently does an expert elicitation using a Phenomena Identification and Ranking Table (PIRT) to identify and evaluate the state of knowledge of important modeling phenomena. However, few details about the design of these reactors and the sequence of events during accidents are known, so the process used was considered a preliminary PIRT. A panel met to define phenomena that would need to be modeled and considered the impact/importance of each phenomenon with respect to specific figures-of-merit (FoMs) (e.g., power distribution, fluence, kinetics parameters and reactivity). Each FoM reflected a potential impact on radionuclide release or loss of a barrier to release. The panel considered what the path forward might be with respect to being able to model the phenomenon in a simulation code. Results are explained for both thermal and fast spectrum designs.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Thermal-Hydraulics Phenomena Important in Modeling and Simulation of Liquid-Fuel Molten Salt Reactors

This paper discusses liquid-fuel molten salt reactors, how they will operate under normal, transient, and accident conditions, and the results of an expert elicitation to determine the corresponding thermalhydraulic phenomena important to understanding their behavior. Identifying these phenomena will enable the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) to develop or identify modeling functionalities and tools required to carry out confirmatory analyses that examine the validity and accuracy of an applicant’s calculations and help determine the margin of safety in plant design. NRC frequently does an expert elicitation using a Phenomena Identification and Ranking Table (PIRT) to identify and evaluate the state of knowledge of important modeling phenomena. However, few details about the design of these reactors and the sequence of events during accidents are known, so the process used was considered a preliminary PIRT. A panel met to define phenomena that would need to be modeled and considered the impact/importance of each phenomenon with respect to specific figures-of-merit (FoMs) (e.g., salt temperature, velocity, and composition). Each FoM reflected a potential impact on radionuclide release or loss of a barrier to release. The panel considered what the path forward might be with respect to being able to model the phenomenon in a simulation code. Results are explained for both thermal and fast spectrum designs.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Raman analysis of phonon modes in a short period AlN/GaN superlattice

AlN/GaN-based optoelectronic devices have been the subject of intense research underlying the commercialization of efficient devices. Areas of considerable interest are the study of their lattice dynamics, phonon transport, and electron-phonon interactions specific to the interface of these heterostructures which results in additional optical phonon modes known as interface phonon modes. In this study, the framework of the dielectric continuum model (DCM) has been used to compare and analyze the optical phonon modes obtained from experimental Raman scattering measurements on AlN/GaN short-period superlattices. We have observed the localized E 2 (high) , A 1 (LO) and the E 1 (TO) modes in superlattice measurements at frequencies shifted from their bulk values. To the best of our knowledge, the nanostructures used in these studies are among the smallest yielding useful Raman signatures for the interface modes. In addition, we have also identified an additional spread of interface phonon modes in the TO range resulting from the superlattice periodicity. The Raman signature contribution from the underlying Al x Ga 1-x N ternary has also been observed and analyzed. A temperature calibrationwas done based on Stokes/anti-Stokes ratio of A 1 (LO) using Raman spectroscopy in a broad operating temperature range. As a result, good agreement between the experimental results and theoretically calculated calibration plot predicted using Bose-Einstein statistics was obtained.

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