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Determination of plasma temperatures and luminosities using multiple extreme-ultraviolet and X-ray filters

We carefully examine the techniques used to infer temperatures of stellar coronal plasmas from the count rates of several broadband instruments in the X-ray and extreme-ultraviolet spectral ranges. In particular, we determine to what extent temperatures can be constrained and the corresponding uncertainties in the luminosities and emission measures lowered by fitting simultaneously count rates from the Einstein imaging proportional counter (IPC), the ROSAT Position Sensitive Proportional Counter (PSPC), the ROSAT Wide Field Camera (WFC) (both filters), and the EXOSAT Low Energy Telescope (LET) with the 3-Lex filter. We use published plasma emissivities with solar photospheric abundances. Since it has been found that single-temperature plasmas do not fit IPC data well, we assume a two-temperature plasma model. We find that, even with count rates from all of the above filters and overly optimistic error estimates, it is still not possible to determine a unique two-temperature solution. However, since the use of count rates from many filters can reduce substantially the number of possible solutions, temperature solutions determined by other means can be tested. We carry out such an analysis on a set of 18 nearby late-type stars to determine possible two-temperature solutions using multifilter photometry, and we compare these results with the temperature solutions derived by Schmitt et al. (1990) using IPC spectral data. In general, the two-temperature fits derived from the IPC spectral data are inconsistent with our results, with our data implying that, for many stars, the two temperatures derived by the IPC may be too low by about a factor of 2. The EXOSAT transmission grating Spectrometer (TGS) spectra of capella and sigma(exp 2) CrB support this conclusion. For Procyon and 70 Oph, though, the presence of a temperature component cooler than a million degress (not detected by the IPC) is deduced. While our analysis suggests the existence of more than one temperature in the coronae of late-type stars, in many instances our WFC data appear to be inconsistent with the presence of significant emission measure over a broad temperature distribution. This, together with the success of two-temperature plasmas in fitting IPC and TGS data, implies that for many stars, the coronal emission measure distribution may in fact be dominated by two distinct temperature regimes.

Wood, Brian E.↗

Analysis of Aircraft Control Performance using a Fuzzy Rule Base Representation of the Cooper-Harper Aircraft Handling Quality Rating

The Cooper-Harper rating of Aircraft Handling Qualities has been adopted as a standard for measuring the performance of aircraft since it was introduced in 1966. Aircraft performance, ability to control the aircraft, and the degree of pilot compensation needed are three major key factors used in deciding the aircraft handling qualities in the Cooper- Harper rating. We formulate the Cooper-Harper rating scheme as a fuzzy rule-based system and use it to analyze the effectiveness of the aircraft controller. The automatic estimate of the system-level handling quality provides valuable up-to-date information for diagnostics and vehicle health management. Analyzing the performance of a controller requires a set of concise design requirements and performance criteria. Ir, the case of control systems fm a piloted aircraft, generally applicable quantitative design criteria are difficult to obtain. The reason for this is that the ultimate evaluation of a human-operated control system is necessarily subjective and, with aircraft, the pilot evaluates the aircraft in different ways depending on the type of the aircraft and the phase of flight. In most aerospace applications (e.g., for flight control systems), performance assessment is carried out in terms of handling qualities. Handling qualities may be defined as those dynamic and static properties of a vehicle that permit the pilot to fully exploit its performance in a variety of missions and roles. Traditionally, handling quality is measured using the Cooper-Harper rating and done subjectively by the human pilot. In this work, we have formulated the rules of the Cooper-Harper rating scheme as fuzzy rules with performance, control, and compensation as the antecedents, and pilot rating as the consequent. Appropriate direct measurements on the controller are related to the fuzzy Cooper-Harper rating system: a stability measurement like the rate of change of the cost function can be used as an indicator if the aircraft is under control; the tracking error is a good measurement for performance needed in the rating scheme. Finally, the change of the control amount or the output of a confidence tool, which has been developed by the authors, can be used as an indication of pilot compensation. We use a number of known aircraft flight scenarios with known pilot ratings to calibrate our fuzzy membership functions. These include normal flight conditions and situations in which partial or complete failure of tail, aileron, engine, or throttle occurs.

Tseng, Chris↗

Determining circuit model parameters from operation data for PV system degradation analysis: $\mathrm{PVPRO}$

Physics-based circuit parameters like series and shunt resistance are essential to provide insights into the degradation status of photovoltaic (PV) arrays. However, calculating these parameters typically requires a full current-voltage characteristic (I-V curve), the acquisition of which involves specific measurement devices and costly methods. Thus, I-V curves of the PV system level are often not available. Here this paper proposes a methodology (PVPRO) to estimate these I-V curve parameters using only operation (string-level DC voltage and current) and weather data (irradiance and temperature). PVPRO first performs multi-stage data pre-processing to remove noisy data. Next, the time-series DC data are used to fit an equivalent circuit single-diode model (SDM) to estimate the circuit parameters by minimizing the differences between the measured and estimated values. In this way, the time evolutions of the SDM parameters are obtained. We evaluate PVPRO on synthetic datasets and find an excellent estimation of both SDM and the key I-V parameters (e.g., open-circuit voltage, short-circuit current, maximum power, etc.) with an average relative error of 0.55%. The performance, especially the extracted degradation rate of parameters, is robust to various measurement noises and the presence of faults. In addition, PVPRO is applied to a 271 kW PV field system. The relative error between the real and estimated operation voltage and current is less than 1%, suggesting that degradation trends are well captured. PVPRO represents a promising open-source tool to extract the time-series degradation trends of key PV parameters from routine operation data.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

A pattern jitter free AFC scheme for mobile satellite systems

This paper describes a scheme for pattern jitter free automatic frequency control (AFC) with a wide frequency acquisition range. In this scheme, equalizing signals fed to the frequency discriminator allow pattern jitter free performance to be achieved for all roll-off factors. In order to define the acquisition range, frequency discrimination characateristics are analyzed on a newly derived frequency domain model. As a result, it is shown that a sufficiently wide acquisition range over a given system symbol rate can be achieved independent of symbol timing errors. Additionally, computer simulation demonstrates that frequency jitter performance improves in proportion to E(sub b)/N(sub 0) because pattern-dependent jitter is suppressed in the discriminator output. These results show significant promise for applciation to mobile satellite systems, which feature relatively low symbol rate transmission with an approximately 0.4-0.7 roll-off factor.

Yoshida, Shousei↗

Isothermal Calorimeter

Pressure-feedback signal indicates rate of heating. Improved isothermal calorimeter measures rate of heating in object under test. Called "isothermal" because chamber holding object and its environment maintained at or near constant temperature to minimize spurious tranfers of heat introducing errors into measurements. When item under test generates heat, rate of boiling and pressure in inner chamber increase. Servo-valve opens wider to maintain preset differential pressure. Valve-control voltage used as measure of rate of heating.

Rowlette, John J.↗

Precipitation and Latent Heating Distributions from Satellite Passive Microwave Radiometry: Method and Uncertainties - Part 1

A revised Bayesian algorithm for estimating surface rain rate, convective rain proportion, and latent heating/drying profiles from satellite-borne passive microwave radiometer observations over ocean backgrounds is described. The algorithm searches a large database of cloud-radiative model simulations to find cloud profiles that are radiatively consistent with a given set of microwave radiance measurements. The properties of these radiatively consistent profiles are then composited to obtain best estimates of the observed properties. The revised algorithm is supported by an expanded and more physically consistent database of cloud-radiative model simulations. The algorithm also features a better quantification of the convective and non-convective contributions to total rainfall, a new geographic database, and an improved representation of background radiances in rain-free regions. Bias and random error estimates are derived from applications of the algorithm to synthetic radiance data, based upon a subset of cloud resolving model simulations, and from the Bayesian formulation itself. Synthetic rain rate and latent heating estimates exhibit a trend of high (low) bias for low (high) retrieved values. The Bayesian estimates of random error are propagated to represent errors at coarser time and space resolutions, based upon applications of the algorithm to TRMM Microwave Imager (TMI) data. Errors in instantaneous rain rate estimates at 0.5 deg resolution range from approximately 50% at 1 mm/h to 20% at 14 mm/h. These errors represent about 70-90% of the mean random deviation between collocated passive microwave and spaceborne radar rain rate estimates. The cumulative algorithm error in TMI estimates at monthly, 2.5 deg resolution is relatively small (less than 6% at 5 mm/day) compared to the random error due to infrequent satellite temporal sampling (8-35% at the same rain rate).

Olson, William S.↗

Demonstration of rapid and sensitive module leak certification for Space Station Freedom

A leak detection and quantification demonstration using perflurocarbon tracer (PFT) technology was successfully performed at the NASA Marshall Space Flight Center on January 25, 1991. The real-time Dual Trap Analyzer (DTA) at one-half hour after the start of the first run gave an estimated leak rate of 0.7 mL/min. This has since been refined to be 1.15 (+ or -) 0.09 mL/min. The leak rates in the next three runs were determined to be 9.8 (+ or -) 0.7, -0.4 (+ or -) 0.3, and 76 (+ or -) 6 mL/min, respectively. The theory on leak quantification in the steady-state and time-dependent modes for a single zone test facility was developed and applied to the above determinations. The laboratory PFT analysis system gave a limit-of-detection (LOD) of 0.05 fL for ocPDCH. This is the tracer of choice and is about 100-fold better than that for the DTA. Applied to leak certification, the LOD is about 0.00002 mL/s (0.000075 L/h), a 5 order-of-magnitude improvement over the original leak certification specification. Furthermore, this limit can be attained in a measurement period of 3 to 4 hours instead of days, weeks, or months. A new Leak Certification Facility is also proposed to provide for zonal (three zones) determination of leak rates. The appropriate multizone equations, their solutions, and error analysis have already been derived. A new concept of seal-integrity certification has been demonstrated for a variety of controlled leaks in the range of module leak testing. High structural integrity leaks were shown to have a linear dependence of flow on (Delta)p. The rapid determination of leak rates at different pressures is proposed and is to be determined while subjecting the module to other external force-generating parameters such as vibration, torque, solar intensity, etc.

Dietz, R. N.↗

A Physics-Constrained Deep Learning Model for Simulating Multiphase Flow in 3D Heterogeneous Porous Media

Physics-based simulators for multiphase flow in porous media emulate nonlinear processes with coupled physics, and usually require extensive computational resources for software development, maintenance and simulation execution. As a result, a huge demand exists for fast modeling of coupled processes in a wide range of subsurface applications including geological sequestration, hydrocarbon recovery and geothermal energy extraction. In this work, an efficient physics-constrained deep learning model is developed for solving multiphase flow in 3-Dimensional (3D) heterogeneous porous media. The model fully leverages the spatial topology predictive capability of convolutional neural networks, specifically U-Net with successive contracting and expansive steps, and is coupled with an efficient continuity-based smoother to predict flow responses that need spatial continuity. Furthermore, the transient regions are penalized to steer the training process such that the model can accurately capture flow in these regions. The model takes inputs including properties of porous media, fluid properties and well controls, and predicts the temporal-spatial evolution of the state variables (pressure and saturation). While maintaining the continuity of fluid flow, the 3D spatial domain is decomposed into 2D images for reducing training cost, and the decomposition results in an increased number of training data samples and better training efficiency. Additionally, a surrogate model is separately constructed as a postprocessor to calculate well flow rate based on the predictions of state variables from the deep learning model. We use the example of CO 2 injection into saline aquifers, and apply the physics-constrained deep learning model that is trained from physics-based simulation data and emulates the physics process. The model performs prediction with a speedup of ~ 1400 times compared to physics-based simulations, and the average temporal errors of predicted pressure and saturation plumes are 0.27% and 0.099% respectively. Furthermore, water production rate is efficiently predicted by a surrogate model for well flow rate, with a mean error less than 5%. Therefore, with its unique scheme to cope with the fidelity in fluid flow in porous media, the physics-constrained deep learning model can become an efficient predictive model for computationally demanding inverse problems or other coupled processes.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

BrachyView, a novel in-body imaging system for HDR prostate brachytherapy: Experimental evaluation

Purpose: This paper presents initial experimental results from a prototype of high dose rate (HDR) BrachyView, a novel in-body source tracking system for HDR brachytherapy based on a multipinhole tungsten collimator and a high resolution pixellated silicon detector array. The probe and its associated position estimation algorithms are validated and a comprehensive evaluation of the accuracy of its position estimation capabilities is presented. Methods: The HDR brachytherapy source is moved through a sequence of positions in a prostate phantom, for various displacements in x, y, and z. For each position, multiple image acquisitions are performed, and source positions are reconstructed. Error estimates in each dimension are calculated at each source position and combined to calculate overall positioning errors. Gafchromic film is used to validate the accuracy of source placement within the phantom. Results: More than 90% of evaluated source positions were estimated with an error of less than one millimeter, with the worst-case error being 1.3 mm. Experimental results were in close agreement with previously published Monte Carlo simulation results. Conclusions: The prototype of HDR BrachyView demonstrates a satisfactory level of accuracy in its source position estimation, and additional improvements are achievable with further refinement of HDR BrachyView’s image processing algorithms.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

A Contextually Supervised Optimization-Based HVAC Load Disaggregation Methodology

This paper presents a novel contextually supervised optimization-based approach for disaggregating heating, ventilation, and air-conditioning (HVAC) loads using smart meter or Supervisory Control and Data Acquisition data. To disaggregate the load into HVAC loads, large and infrequently used loads (LIUL), and base loads, we formulate an optimization problem to minimize a set of five loss terms, consisting of the reconstruction errors of the overall load profile, the ramp rate losses, and three distinct loss functions linked with the HVAC load, base load, and LIUL, respectively. To enhance accuracy, we incorporate two forms of contextual information into the problem formulation. First, we utilize mutual information to estimate HVAC energy consumption. Second, we employ a base load dictionary to constrain HVAC load estimation errors. The obtained HVAC load profiles are fine-tuned by abnormal ramp detection followed by binary hypothesis testing. Here, the proposed method is developed and tested using sub-metered residential and commercial building data. Simulation results show that the proposed method outperforms existing methods across various data resolutions and load aggregation levels, showing excellent transferability and generalizability.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

SU-C-16A-01: In Vivo Source Position Verification in High Dose Rate (HDR) Prostate Brachytherapy Using a Flat Panel Imager: Initial Clinical Experience

Purpose: We report our initial clinical experience with a novel position-sensitive source-tracking system based on a flat panel imager. The system has been trialled with 4 prostate HDR brachytherapy patients (8 treatment fractions) in this initial study. Methods: The flat panel imaging system was mounted under a customised carbon fibre couch top assembly (Figure 1). Three gold fiducial markers were implanted into the prostate of each patient at the time of catheter placement. X-ray dwell position markers were inserted into three catheters and a radiograph acquired to locate the implant relative to the imaging device. During treatment, as the HDR source dwells were delivered, images were acquired and processed to determine the position of the source in the patient. Source positions measured by the imaging device were compared to the treatment plan for verification of treatment delivery. Results: Measured dwell positions provided verification of relative dwell spacing within and between catheters, in the coronal plane. Measurements were typically within 2.0mm (0.2mm – 3.3mm, s.d. 0.8mm) of the planned positions over 60 dwells (Figure 2). Discrimination between larger dwell intervals and catheter differentiation were clear. This confirms important delivery attributes such as correct transfer tube connection, source step size, relative catheter positions and therefore overall correct plan selection and delivery. The fiducial markers, visible on the radiograph, provided verification of treatment delivery to the correct anatomical location. The absolute position of the dwells was determined by comparing the measured dwell positions with the x-ray markers from the radiograph, validating the programmed treatment indexer length. The total impact on procedure time was less than 5 minutes. Conclusion: The novel, noninvasive HDR brachytherapy treatment verification system was used clinically with minor impact on workflow. The system allows verification of correct treatment delivery, free of most potential human related errors identified in ICRP 97. This research is supported by funding from the Australian Government Department of Health through Cancer Australia grant no. 616614.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Quadraphase demodulation

A received, suppressed carrier, quadraphase shift key modulated (QPSK)signal is demodulated with a phase locked loop including a variable frequency, coherent reference that drives first and second channels also responsive to the QPSK signal. The channels respectively derive first and second replicas of binary signals that modulated the suppressed carrier. The replicas are combined to derive a variable amplitude error signal for controlling the coherent reference frequency. The frequency of the coherent reference is dithered at a low rate so that there is derived a relatively low level tracking error phase from the locked loop. The frequency of the coherent reference is swept when the phase of the error signal differs from the dithering phase by a predetermined value that is appreciably less than 90 degrees.

Ryan, C. R.↗

Effects of Nonuniform Beam Filling on Rainfall Retrieval for the TRMM Precipitation Radar

The Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) will carry the first spaceborne radar for rainfall observation. Because the TRMM Precipitation Radar (PR) footprint size of 4.3 km is greater than the scale of some convective rainfall events, there is concern that nonuniform filling of the PR antenna beam may bias the retrieved rain-rate profile. The authors investigate this effect theoretically and then observationally using data from the NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory Airborne Rain Mapping Radar (ARMAR), acquired during Tropical Oceans Global Atmosphere Coupled Ocean Atmosphere Response Experiment in early 1993. The authors' observational approach is to simulate TRMM PR data using the ARMAR data and compare the radar observables and retrieved rain rate from the simulated PR data with those corresponding to the high-resolution radar measurements. The authors find that the path-integrated attenuation and the resulting path-averaged rain rate are underestimated. The reflectivity and rain rate near the top of the rainfall column are overestimated. The near-surface reflectivity can be overestimated or underestimated, with a mean error very close to zero. The near-surface rain rate, however, is usually underestimated, sometimes severely.

Durden, Stephen L.↗

Extreme Hardening of Pb at High Pressure and Strain Rate

We study the high-pressure strength of Pb and Pb-4wt%Sb at the National Ignition Facility. We measure Rayleigh-Taylor growth of preformed ripples ramp compressed to ~400 GPa peak pressure, among the highest-pressure strength measurements ever reported on any platform. We find agreement with 2D simulations using the Improved Steinberg-Guinan strength model for body-centered-cubic Pb; the Pb-4wt%Sb alloy behaves similarly within the error bars. Here, the combination of high-rate, pressure-induced hardening and polymorphism yield an average inferred flow stress of ~3.8 GPa at high pressure, a ~250-fold increase, changing Pb from soft to extremely strong.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

SU-E-T-374: Sensitivity of ArcCHECK to Tomotherapy Delivery Errors: Dependence On Analysis Technique

Purpose: ArcCHECK (Sun Nuclear) is a cylindrical diode array detector allowing three-dimensional sampling of dose, particularly useful in treatment delivery QA of helical tomotherapy. Gamma passing rate is a common method of analyzing results from diode arrays, but is less intuitive in 3D with complex measured dose distributions. This study explores the sensitivity of gamma passing rate to choice of analysis technique in the context of its ability to detect errors introduced into the treatment delivery. Methods: Nine treatment plans were altered to introduce errors in: couch speed, gantry/sonogram synchronization, and leaf open time. Each plan was then delivered to ArcCHECK in each of the following arrangements: “offset,” when the high dose area of the plan is delivered to the side of the phantom so that some diode measurements will be on the order of the prescription dose, and “centered,” when the high dose is in the center of the phantom where an ion chamber measurement may be acquired, but the diode measurements are in the mid to low-dose region at the periphery of the plan. Gamma analysis was performed at 3%/3mm tolerance and both global and local gamma criteria. The threshold of detectability for each error type was calculated as the magnitude at which the gamma passing rate drops below 90%. Results: Global gamma criteria reduced the sensitivity in the offset arrangement (from 2.3% to 4.5%, 8° to 21°, and 3ms to 8ms for couch-speed decrease, gantry-error, and leaf-opening increase, respectively). The centered arrangement detected changes at 3.3%, 5°, and 4ms with smaller variation. Conclusion: Each arrangement has advantages; offsetting allows more sampling of the higher dose region, while centering allows an ion chamber measurement and potentially better use of tools such as 3DVH, at the cost of positioning more of the diodes in the sometimes noisy mid-dose region.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Bayesian inference for heterogeneous caprock permeability based on above zone pressure monitoring

The presence of faults/ fractures or highly permeable zones in the primary sealing caprock of a CO2 storage reservoir can result in leakage of CO2. Monitoring of leakage requires the capability to detect and resolve the onset, location, and volume of leakage in a systematic and timely manner. Pressure-based monitoring possesses such capabilities. This study demonstrates a basis for monitoring network design based on the characterization of CO2 leakage scenarios through an assessment of the integrity and permeability of the caprock inferred from above zone pressure measurements. Four representative heterogeneous fractured seal types are characterized to demonstrate seal permeability ranging from highly permeable to impermeable. Based on Bayesian classification theory, the probability of each fractured caprock scenario given above zone pressure measurements with measurement error is inferred. The sensitivity to injection rate and caprock thickness is also evaluated and the probability of proper classification is calculated. The time required to distinguish between above zone pressure outcomes and the associated leakage scenarios is also computed.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Estimating the Pyrolysis Kinetic Parameters of Coal, Biomass, and Their Blends: A Comparative Study

In this work, the pyrolysis kinetic parameters of two coal ranks (DECS-25 lignite and DECS-38 sub-bituminous), two biomass materials (corn stover and switchgrass), and their respective blends were investigated at various heating rates ranging between 5 and 40 °C/min using thermogravimetric analysis. Complex models for devolatilization of the feedstocks were solved for obtaining and predicting the global kinetic parameters. Distributed activation energy model (method 1) and matrix inversion algorithm (method 2) were utilized and compared for this purpose. The results indicate that the matrix inversion algorithm predicts the kinetic parameters such that the weight loss characteristics can be best represented for both single fuels as well as that of blended materials. The algorithm can also be used for determining the number of reactions occurring in the devolatilization temperature interval. The number of reactions occurring during the devolatilization of blended materials falls between those that occur during the devolatilization of single fuels and the number of reactions gradually decrease with increase of biomass concentration in the blend. In addition, weight loss characteristics of fuel blends at unknown heating rates can be effectively predicted within 1% error through the use of this algorithm.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗

Enhanced reaction rates in NDP analysis with neutron scattering

Neutron depth profiling (NDP) makes accessible quantitative information on a few isotopic concentration profiles ranging from the surface into the sample a few micrometers. Because the candidate analytes for NDP are few, there is little interference encountered. Furthermore, neutrons have no charge so mixed chemical states in the sample are of no direct concern. There are a few nuclides that exhibit large probabilities for neutron scattering. The effect of neutron scattering on NDP measurements has not previously been evaluated as a basis for either enhancing the reaction rates or as a source of measurement error. Hydrogen is a common element exhibiting large neutron scattering probability found in or around sample volumes being analyzed by NDP. A systematic study was conducted to determine the degree of signal change when neutron scattering occurs during analysis. The relative signal perturbation was evaluated for materials of varied neutron scattering probability, concentration, total mass, and geometry. Signal enhancements up to 50% are observed when the hydrogen density is high and in close proximity to the region of analysis with neutron beams of sub thermal energies. Greater signal enhancements for the same neutron number density are reported for thermal neutron beams. Even adhesive tape used to position the sample produces a measureable signal enhancement. Because of the shallow volume, negligible distortion of the NDP measured profile shape is encountered from neutron scattering.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗