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NASA NTRS1999

Improving Assimilated Global Data Sets using TMI Rainfall and Columnar Moisture Observations

A global analysis that optimally combine observations from diverse sources with physical models of atmospheric and land processes can provide a comprehensive description of the climate systems. Currently, such data products contain significant errors in primary hydrological fields such as precipitation and evaporation, especially in the tropics. In this study, we show that assimilating precipitation and total precipitable water (TPW) retrievals derived from the TRMM Microwave Imager (TMI) improves not only the hydrological cycle but also key climate parameters such as clouds, radiation, and the large-scale circulation produced by the Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) data assimilation system (DAS). In particular, assimilating TMI rain improves clouds and radiation in areas of active convection, as well as the latent heating distribution and the large-scale motion field in the tropics, while assimilating TMI TPW heating distribution and the large-scale motion field in the tropics, while assimilating TMI TPW retrievals leads to reduced moisture biases and improved radiative fluxes in clear-sky regions. The improved analysis also improves short-range forecasts in the tropics. Ensemble forecasts initialized with the GEOS analysis incorporating TMI rain rates and TPW yield smaller biases in tropical precipitation forecasts beyond 1 day and better 500 hPa geopotential height forecasts up to 5 days. Results of this study demonstrate the potential of using high-quality space-borne rainfall and moisture observations to improve the quality of assimilated global data for climate analysis and weather forecasting applications

Hou, Arthur Y.↗

NASA NTRS1998

High Pressure Water Stripping Using Multi-Orifice Nozzles

The use of multi-orifice rotary nozzles not only increases the speed and stripping effectiveness of high pressure water blasting systems, but also greatly increases the complexity of selecting and optimizing the operating parameters. The rotational speed of the nozzle must be coupled with the transverse velocity of the nozzle as it passes across the surface of the substrate being stripped. The radial and angular positions of each orifice must be included in the analysis of the nozzle configuration. Since orifices at the outer edge of the nozzle head move at a faster rate than the orifice located near the center, the energy impact force of the water stream from the outer orifice is spread over a larger area than the water streams from the inner orifice. Utilizing a larger diameter orifice in the outer radial positions increases the energy impact to compensate for its wider force distribution. The total flow rate from the combination of orifices must be monitored and kept below the pump capacity while choosing an orifice to insert in each position. The energy distribution from the orifice pattern is further complicated since the rotary path of all orifices in the nozzle head pass through the center section, contributing to the stripping in this area while only the outer most orifice contributes to the stripping in the shell area at the extreme outside edge of the nozzle. From t he outer most shell to the center section, more orifices contribute to the stripping in each progressively reduced diameter shell. With all these parameters to configure and each parameter change affecting the others, a computer model was developed to track and coordinate these parameters. The computer simulation responds by graphically indicating the cumulative affect from each parameter selected. The results from the proper choices in parameters is a well designed, highly efficient stripping system. A poorly chosen set of parameters will cause the nozzle to strip aggressively in some areas while leaving the coating untouched in adjacent sections. The high pressure water stripping system can be set to extremely aggressive conditions allowing stripping of hard to remove adhesives, paint systems, cladding and chromate conversion coatings. The energy force can be reduced to strip coatings from thin aluminum substrates without causing damage or deterioration to the substrate's surface. High pressure water stripping of aerospace components have thus proven to be an efficient and cost effective method for cleaning and removing coatings.

Hoppe, David T.↗

NASA NTRS2008

Temporal Stability of Surface Roughness Effects on Radar Based Soil Moisture Retrieval During the Corn Growth Cycle

A representative soil surface roughness parameterization needed for the retrieval of soil moisture from active microwave satellite observation is difficult to obtain through either in-situ measurements or remote sensing-based inversion techniques. Typically, for the retrieval of soil moisture, temporal variations in surface roughness are assumed to be negligible. Although previous investigations have suggested that this assumption might be reasonable for natural vegetation covers (Moran et al. 2002, Thoma et al. 2006), insitu measurements over plowed agricultural fields (Callens et al. 2006) have shown that the soil surface roughness can change considerably over time. This paper reports on the temporal stability of surface roughness effects on radar observations and soil moisture retrieved from these radar observations collected once a week during a corn growth cycle (May 10th - October 2002). The data set employed was collected during the Optimizing Production Inputs for Economic and Environmental Enhancement (OPE3) field campaign covering this 2002 corn growth cycle and consists of dual-polarized (HH and VV) L-band (1.6 GHz) acquired at view angles of 15, 35, and 55 degrees. Cross-polarized L baud radar data were also collected as part of this experiment, but are not used in the analysis reported on here. After accounting for vegetation effects on radar observations, time-invariant optimum roughness parameters were determined using the Integral Equation Method (IEM) and radar observations acquired over bare soil and cropped conditions (the complete radar data set includes entire corn growth cycle). The optimum roughness parameters, soil moisture retrieval uncertainty, temporal distribution of retrieval errors and its relationship with the weather conditions (e.g. rainfall and wind speed) have been analyzed. It is shown that over the corn growth cycle, temporal roughness variations due to weathering by rain are responsible for almost 50% of soil moisture retrieval uncertainty depending on the sensing configuration. The effects of surface roughness variations are found to be smallest for observations acquired at a view angle of 55 degrees and HH polarization. A possible explanation for this result is that at 55 degrees and HH polarization the effect of vertical surface height changes on the observed radar response are limited because the microwaves travel parallel to the incident plane and as a result will not interact directly with vertically oriented soil structures.

Joseph, A.T.↗

NASA NTRS2024

Global Sensitivity Analysis of Simulated Remote Sensing Polarimetric Observations Over Snow

This study presents a detailed theoretical assessment of the information content of passive polarimetric observations over snow scenes, using a global sensitivity analysis (GSA) method. Conventional sensitivity studies focus on varying a single parameter while keeping all other parameters fixed. In contrast, the GSA correctly addresses the covariance of state parameters across their entire parameter space, hence favoring a more correct interpretation of inversion algorithms and the optimal design of their state vectors. The forward simulations exploit a vector radiative transfer model to obtain the Stokes vector emerging at the top of the atmosphere for different solar zenith angles, when the bottom boundary consists of a vertically resolved snowpack of non-spherical grains. The presence of light-absorbing particulates (LAPs), either embedded in the snow or aloft in the atmosphere above in the form of aerosols, is also considered. The results are presented for a set of wavelengths spanning the visible (VIS), near-infrared (NIR), and shortwave infrared (SWIR) region of the spectrum. The GSA correctly captures the expected, high sensitivity of the reflectance to LAPs in the VIS–NIR and to grain size at different depths in the snowpack in the NIR–SWIR. With adequate viewing geometries, mono-angle measurements of total reflectance in the VIS–SWIR (akin to those of the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer, MODIS) resolve grain size in the top layer of the snowpack sufficiently well. The addition of multi-angle polarimetric observations in the VIS–NIR provides information on grain shape and microscale roughness. The simultaneous sensitivity in the VIS–NIR to both aerosols and snow-embedded impurities can be disentangled by extending the spectral range to the SWIR, which contains information on aerosol optical depth while remaining essentially unaffected when the same particulates are mixed with the snow. Multi-angle polarimetric observations can therefore (i) effectively partition LAPs between the atmosphere and the surface, which represents a notorious challenge for snow remote sensing based on measurements of total reflectance only and (ii) lead to better estimates of grain shape and roughness and, in turn, the asymmetry parameter, which is critical for the determination of albedo. The retrieval uncertainties are minimized when the degree of linear polarization is used in place of the polarized reflectance. The Sobol indices, which are the main metric for the GSA, were used to select the state parameters in retrievals performed on data simulated for multiple instrument configurations. Improvements in retrieval quality with the addition of measurements of polarization, multi-angle views, and different spectral channels reflect the information content, identified by the Sobol indices, relative to each configuration. The results encourage the development of new remote sensing algorithms that fully leverage multi-angle and polarimetric capabilities of modern remote sensors. They can also aid flight planning activities, since the optimal exploitation of the information content of multi-angle measurements depends on the viewing geometry. The better characterization of surface and atmospheric parameters in snow-covered regions advances research opportunities for scientists of the cryosphere and ultimately benefits albedo estimates in climate models.

remote sensing↗

NASA NTRS2005

Fluid Distribution for In-space Cryogenic Propulsion

The ultimate goal of this task is to enable the use of a single supply of cryogenic propellants for three distinct spacecraft propulsion missions: main propulsion, orbital maneuvering, and attitude control. A fluid distribution system is sought which allows large propellant flows during the first two missions while still allowing control of small propellant flows during attitude control. Existing research has identified the probable benefits of a combined thermal management/power/fluid distribution system based on the Solar Integrated Thermal Management and Power (SITMAP) cycle. Both a numerical model and an experimental model are constructed in order to predict the performance of such an integrated thermal management/propulsion system. This research task provides a numerical model and an experimental apparatus which will simulate an integrated thermal/power/fluid management system based on the SITMAP cycle, and assess its feasibility for various space missions. Various modifications are done to the cycle, such as the addition of a regeneration process that allows heat to be transferred into the working fluid prior to the solar collector, thereby reducing the collector size and weight. Fabri choking analysis was also accounted for. Finally the cycle is to be optimized for various space missions based on a mass based figure of merit, namely the System Mass Ratio (SMR). -. 1 he theoretical and experimental results from these models are be used to develop a design code (JETSIT code) which is able to provide design parameters for such a system, over a range of cooling loads, power generation, and attitude control thrust levels. The performance gains and mass savings will be compared to those of existing spacecraft systems.

Lear, William↗

NASA NTRS2017

Applications of Satellite Data to Support Improvements in Irrigation and Groundwater Management in California

In agricultural regions around the world, threats to water supplies from drought and groundwater depletion are driving increased demand for tools to advance agricultural water use efficiency and support sustainable groundwater management. Satellite mapping of evapotranspiration (ET) from irrigated agricultural lands can provide agricultural producers and water resource managers with information that can be used to both optimize ag water use and improve estimates of groundwater withdrawals for irrigation. We describe the development of two remote sensing-based tools for ET mapping in California, including important lessons in terms of system design, partnership development, and transition to operations. For irrigation management, the integration of satellite data and surface sensor networks to provide timely delivery of information on crop water requirements can make irrigation scheduling more practical, convenient, and accurate.Developed through a partnership between NASA and the CA Department of Water Resources, the Satellite Irrigation Management Support (SIMS) framework integrates satellite data with information from agricultural weather networks to map crop canopy development and crop water requirements at the scale of individual fields. Information is distributed to agricultural producers and water managers via a web-based interface and web data services. SIMS also provides an API that facilitates integration with other irrigation decision support tools, such as CropManage and IrriQuest. Field trials using these integrated tools have shown that they can be used to sustain yields while improving water use efficiency and nutrient management. For sustainable groundwater management, the combination of satellite-derived estimates of ET and data on surface water deliveries for irrigation can increase the accuracy of estimates of groundwater pumping. We are developing an OpenET platform to facilitate access to ET data from multiple models and accelerate operational use of ET data in support of a range of water management applications, including implementation of the Sustainable Groundwater Management Act in CA. By providing a shared basis for decision making, we anticipate that the OpenET platform will accelerate implementation of solutions for sustainable groundwater management.

Satellite↗

NASA NTRS2001

Optimal firing rate estimation

We define a measure for evaluating the quality of a predictive model of the behavior of a spiking neuron. This measure, information gain per spike (Is), indicates how much more information is provided by the model than if the prediction were made by specifying the neuron's average firing rate over the same time period. We apply a maximum Is criterion to optimize the performance of Gaussian smoothing filters for estimating neural firing rates. With data from bullfrog vestibular semicircular canal neurons and data from simulated integrate-and-fire neurons, the optimal bandwidth for firing rate estimation is typically similar to the average firing rate. Precise timing and average rate models are limiting cases that perform poorly. We estimate that bullfrog semicircular canal sensory neurons transmit in the order of 1 bit of stimulus-related information per spike.

NASA Discipline Neuroscience↗

NASA NTRS1978

An iterative procedure for obtaining maximum-likelihood estimates of the parameters for a mixture of normal distributions

This paper addresses the problem of obtaining numerically maximum-likelihood estimates of the parameters for a mixture of normal distributions. In recent literature, a certain successive-approximations procedure, based on the likelihood equations, was shown empirically to be effective in numerically approximating such maximum-likelihood estimates; however, the reliability of this procedure was not established theoretically. Here, we introduce a general iterative procedure, of the generalized steepest-ascent (deflected-gradient) type, which is just the procedure known in the literature when the step-size is taken to be 1. We show that, with probability 1 as the sample size grows large, this procedure converges locally to the strongly consistent maximum-likelihood estimate whenever the step-size lies between 0 and 2. We also show that the step-size which yields optimal local convergence rates for large samples is determined in a sense by the 'separation' of the component normal densities and is bounded below by a number between 1 and 2.

Peters, B. C., Jr.↗

NASA NTRS1993

The Feasibility of Tropospheric and Total Ozone Determination Using a Fabry-perot Interferometer as a Satellite-based Nadir-viewing Atmospheric Sensor

Monitoring of the global distribution of tropospheric ozone (O3) is desirable for enhanced scientific understanding as well as to potentially lessen the ill-health impacts associated with exposure to elevated concentrations in the lower atmosphere. Such a capability can be achieved using a satellite-based device making high spectral resolution measurements with high signal-to-noise ratios; this would enable observation in the pressure-broadened wings of strong O3 lines while minimizing the impact of undesirable signal contributions associated with, for example, the terrestrial surface, interfering species, and clouds. The Fabry-Perot Interferometer (FPI) provides high spectral resolution and high throughput capabilities that are essential for this measurement task. Through proper selection of channel spectral regions, the FPI optimized for tropospheric O3 measurements can simultaneously observe a stratospheric component and thus the total O3 column abundance. Decreasing stratospheric O3 concentrations may lead to an increase in biologically harmful solar ultraviolet radiation reaching the earth's surface, which is detrimental to health. In this research, a conceptual instrument design to achieve the desired measurement has been formulated. This involves a double-etalon fixed-gap series configuration FPI along with an ultra-narrow bandpass filter to achieve single-order operation with an overall spectral resolution of approximately .068 cm(exp -1). A spectral region of about 1 cm(exp -1) wide centered at 1054.73 cm(exp -1) within the strong 9.6 micron ozone infrared band is sampled with 24 spectral channels. Other design characteristics include operation from a nadir-viewing satellite configuration utilizing a 9 inch (diameter) telescope and achieving horizontal spatial resolution with a 50 km nadir footprint. A retrieval technique has been implemented and is demonstrated for a tropical atmosphere possessing enhanced tropospheric ozone amounts. An error analysis assessing the impact on retrieved O3 amounts of the most significant uncertainties associated with this particular measurement has been performed for several different types of atmospheres. Results show the proposed instrumentation to enable a good measurement of absolute ozone amounts and an even better determination of relative changes, with a range of accuracy to within 7.55 to 20.6 percent for integrated tropospheric amounts (and 1.99 to 4.02 percent for total O3 column abundance) and a corresponding range in precision to within 7.73 to 10.4 percent (and 3.30 to 3.95 percent for total O3 column abundance), for the atmospheric conditions considered.

Larar, Allen Maurice↗

NASA NTRS2007

Applications of Time-Reversal Processing for Planetary Surface Communications

Due to the power constraints imposed on wireless sensor and communication networks deployed on a planetary surface during exploration, energy efficient transfer of data becomes a critical issue. In situations where groups of nodes within a network are located in relatively close proximity, cooperative communication techniques can be utilized to improve the range, data rate, power efficiency, and lifetime of the network. In particular, if the point-to-point communication channels on the network are well modeled as frequency non-selective, distributed or cooperative beamforming can employed. For frequency-selective channels, beamforming itself is not generally appropriate, but a natural generalization of it, time-reversal communication (TRC), can still be effective. Time-reversal processing has been proposed and studied previously for other applications, including acoustical imaging, electromagnetic imaging, underwater acoustic communication, and wireless communication channels. In this paper, we study both the theoretical advantages and the experimental performance of cooperative TRC for wireless communication on planetary surfaces. We give a brief introduction to TRC and present several scenarios where TRC could be profitably employed during planetary exploration. We also present simulation results illustrating the performance of cooperative TRC employed in a complex multipath environment and discuss the optimality of cooperative TRC for data aggregation in wireless sensor networks

Barton, Richard J.↗

NASA NTRS2010

Single Spatial-Mode Room-Temperature-Operated 3.0 to 3.4 micrometer Diode Lasers

Compact, highly efficient, 3.0 to 3.4 m light emitters are in demand for spectroscopic analysis and identification of chemical substances (including methane and formaldehyde), infrared countermeasures technologies, and development of advanced infrared scene projectors. The need for these light emitters can be currently addressed either by bulky solid-state light emitters with limited power conversion efficiency, or cooled Interband Cascade (IC) semiconductor lasers. Researchers here have developed a breakthrough approach to fabrication of diode mid-IR lasers that have several advantages over IC lasers used for the Mars 2009 mission. This breakthrough is due to a novel design utilizing the strain-engineered quantum-well (QW) active region and quinternary barriers, and due to optimization of device material composition and growth conditions (growth temperatures and rates). However, in their present form, these GaSb-based laser diodes cannot be directly used as a part of sensor systems. The device spectrum is too broad to perform spectroscopic analysis of gas species, and operating currents and voltages are too high. In the current work, the emitters were fabricated as narrow-ridge waveguide index-guided lasers rather than broad stripe-gain guided multimode Fabry-Perot (FP) lasers as was done previously. These narrow-ridge waveguide mid-IR lasers exhibit much lower power consumptions, and can operate in a single spatial mode that is necessary for demonstration of single-mode distributed feedback (DBF) devices for spectroscopic applications. These lasers will enable a new generation of compact, tunable diode laser spectrometers with lower power consumption, reduced complexity, and significantly reduced development costs. These lasers can be used for the detection of HCN, C2H2, methane, and ethane.

Frez, Clifford F.↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

TPSAS-NF1676L-27509-DND

The information about composition of aerosols has a great importance for monitoring and understanding of climate and environment dynamics. Such information can be obtained using situ measurements or chemical transport models. However, in situ sampling has limited spatial and temporal coverage, while estimations have large uncertainties. The present work enables the monitoring of aerosol chemical species from space-borne observations, providing observationally-based results with spatial and temporal coverage. Following the ideas of Schuster et al.(2005, 2009, 2016), we retrieve chemical composition directly from satellite observations without intermediate retrieval of the refractive index (in contrast with Schuster's approach). This approach is expected to reduce the influence of modeling uncertainties, and to provide additional constraints in situations where remote sensing observations do not have enough spectral sensitivity to refractive index. One of principal difficulties is the identification of an adequate model for linking refractive index to chemical composition. Therefore, the initial effort of this work has focused on identifying an optimal physico-chemistry to refractive index conversion model. With that purpose, we first tested the retrieval approach using a simplified volume-weighting model and updated by the Maxwell Garnett mixing model. This concept was incorporated into the GRASP algorithm designed to retrieve an extended set of atmospheric parameters from remote sensing observations. Then a series of sensitivity tests using synthetic data of POLDER/PARASOL were conducted, and followed by inversion of real PARASOL observations over Africa. The sensitivity tests showed that these two models allow the retrieval to distinguish amongst the assumed chemical species. Results obtained from real PARASOL data demonstrated good agreement with the optical characteristics provided by AERONET. In addition, the obtained patterns of chemical component distribution agreed with known physical expectations. We also compared the chemical composition retrievals to GOCART model simulations and obtained good consistencies.

Lei Li↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Transitioning a Flexible and Scalable Satellite Ground Station Observation Network (GSON) Framework to an Operational Environment

Obtaining accurate and timely satellite observations is of paramount importance in fields like disaster management, weather diagnoses/forecasting, and Earth Sciences remote sensing. Stored mission data (SMD), from low Earth orbiting (LEO) satellite sensors, provides important observations for these fields and applications, however data access to SMD can be delayed from one and half hours to three hours from the time the observations were made. This data latency poses a significant impact on data product optimal use. We developed a Ground Station Observation Network (GSON) that utilizes commercial ground station as a service (GSaaS) providers to acquire low latency direct broadcast (DB) data from AQUA, SNPP, and JPSS-1 satellites using antennas located in strategic locations around the world. We will discuss techniques to improve the deployment efficiency and code reliability and quality of the GSON framework. Topics include right-sizing and containerization of the code to facilitate integration and adaptation with continuous delivery (CD) pipeline, locating non-code assets in referenceable repositories separated from code, adaptation of pipelines as code and simplification of CD, intersecting with code quality tests and checks as part of the pipeline execution and deployment, and establishing distributed repositories, registries, and system identities in a way that mitigates compromise to the CD pipeline. These techniques enable deployment of processing systems that are both highly specific but also dynamically modifiable. This new class of system allows for a flexible and scalable deployment while avoiding the “black box” issues that can plague large system deployments.

cluster↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Cloud-Based Demodulation and Data Distribution of a Satellite Downlink

Ground station networks connected to the cloud allow space missions to have global communications coverage without operating their own infrastructure. In this work, we describe the communications architecture for the TechEdSat-13 mission, which performed the first in-space characterization of a neuromorphic processor. The mission utilizes a commercial provider for S-band downlinks. A suite of cloud services and open-source software such as GNU Radio are leveraged to demodulate signals received by an AWS ground station during passes with TechEdSat-13 and store recovered data. Once a pass is scheduled, the entire process takes place without human intervention. On-orbit results the past year of operations are presented, demonstrating the advantages of this approach over traditional operator-owned ground stations. Use of software-defined radio makes possible custom signal processing. The homogeneity of apertures and their interfaces to the cloud simplifies scaling across many sites. This abundance of candidate links lays the groundwork for intelligent scheduling agents to optimize pass selection across several factors, automatically recover from failed contacts, and gather metrics to learn from past performance.

cloud demodulation↗

NASA NTRS1992

Astronomical data analysis software and systems I; Proceedings of the 1st Annual Conference, Tucson, AZ, Nov. 6-8, 1991

Consideration is given to a definition of a distribution format for X-ray data, the Einstein on-line system, the NASA/IPAC extragalactic database, COBE astronomical databases, Cosmic Background Explorer astronomical databases, the ADAM software environment, the Groningen Image Processing System, search for a common data model for astronomical data analysis systems, deconvolution for real and synthetic apertures, pitfalls in image reconstruction, a direct method for spectral and image restoration, and a discription of a Poisson imagery super resolution algorithm. Also discussed are multivariate statistics on HI and IRAS images, a faint object classification using neural networks, a matched filter for improving SNR of radio maps, automated aperture photometry of CCD images, interactive graphics interpreter, the ROSAT extreme ultra-violet sky survey, a quantitative study of optimal extraction, an automated analysis of spectra, applications of synthetic photometry, an algorithm for extra-solar planet system detection and data reduction facilities for the William Herschel telescope.

Worrall, Diana M.↗

NASA NTRS1982

Resolution versus speckle relative to geologic interpretability of spaceborne radar images - A survey of user preference

A survey conducted to evaluate user preference for resolution versus speckle relative to the geologic interpretability of spaceborne radar images is discussed. Thirteen different resolution/looks combinations are simulated from Seasat synthetic-aperture radar data of each of three test sites. The SAR images were distributed with questionnaires for analysis to 85 earth scientists. The relative discriminability of geologic targets at each test site for each simulation of resolution and speckle on the images is determined on the basis of a survey of the evaluations. A large majority of the analysts respond that for most targets a two-look image at the highest simulated resolution is best. For a constant data rate, a higher resolution is more important for target discrimination than a higher number of looks. It is noted that sand dunes require more looks than other geologic targets. At all resolutions, multiple-look images are preferred over the corresponding single-look image. In general, the number of multiple looks that is optimal for discriminating geologic targets is inversely related to the simulated resolution.

Ford, J. P.↗

NASA NTRS2009

Integrated Traffic Flow Management Decision Making

A generalized approach is proposed to support integrated traffic flow management decision making studies at both the U.S. national and regional levels. It can consider tradeoffs between alternative optimization and heuristic based models, strategic versus tactical flight controls, and system versus fleet preferences. Preliminary testing was accomplished by implementing thirteen unique traffic flow management models, which included all of the key components of the system and conducting 85, six-hour fast-time simulation experiments. These experiments considered variations in the strategic planning look-ahead times, the replanning intervals, and the types of traffic flow management control strategies. Initial testing indicates that longer strategic planning look-ahead times and re-planning intervals result in steadily decreasing levels of sector congestion for a fixed delay level. This applies when accurate estimates of the air traffic demand, airport capacities and airspace capacities are available. In general, the distribution of the delays amongst the users was found to be most equitable when scheduling flights using a heuristic scheduling algorithm, such as ration-by-distance. On the other hand, equity was the worst when using scheduling algorithms that took into account the number of seats aboard each flight. Though the scheduling algorithms were effective at alleviating sector congestion, the tactical rerouting algorithm was the primary control for avoiding en route weather hazards. Finally, the modeled levels of sector congestion, the number of weather incursions, and the total system delays, were found to be in fair agreement with the values that were operationally observed on both good and bad weather days.

Grabbe, Shon R.↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

A Framework for Evaluating Climate Model Performance Metrics

The CMIP5 archive contains future climate projections from over 50 models provided by dozens of modeling centers from around the world. Individual model projections, however, are subject to biases created by structural model uncertainties. As a result, ensemble averaging of multiple models is often used to add value to model projections: consensus projections have been shown to consistently outperform individual models. Previous reports for the IPCC establish climate change projections based on an equal-weighted average of all model projections. However, certain models reproduce climate processes better than other models. Should models be weighted based on performance? Unequal ensemble averages have previously been constructed using a variety of mean state metrics. What metrics are most relevant for constraining future climate projections? This project develops a framework for systematically testing metrics in models to identify optimal metrics for unequal weighting multi-model ensembles. A unique aspect of this project is the construction and testing of climate process-based model evaluation metrics. A climate process-based metric is defined as a metric based on the relationship between two physically related climate variables?e.g., outgoing longwave radiation and surface temperature. Metrics are constructed using high-quality Earth radiation budget data from NASA's Clouds and Earth's Radiant Energy System (CERES) instrument and surface temperature data sets. It is found that regional values of tested quantities can vary significantly when comparing weighted and unweighted model ensembles. For example, one tested metric weights the ensemble by how well models reproduce the time-series probability distribution of the cloud forcing component of reflected shortwave radiation. The weighted ensemble for this metric indicates lower simulated precipitation (up to .7 mm/day) in tropical regions than the unweighted ensemble: since CMIP5 models have been shown to overproduce precipitation, this result could indicate that the metric is effective in identifying models which simulate more realistic precipitation. Ultimately, the goal of the framework is to identify performance metrics for advising better methods for ensemble averaging models and create better climate predictions.

Noel C Baker↗