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Grounding explanations in evolving, diagnostic situations

Certain fields of practice involve the management and control of complex dynamic systems. These include flight deck operations in commercial aviation, control of space systems, anesthetic management during surgery or chemical or nuclear process control. Fault diagnosis of these dynamic systems generally must occur with the monitored process on-line and in conjunction with maintaining system integrity.This research seeks to understand in more detail what it means for an intelligent system to function cooperatively, or as a 'team player' in complex, dynamic environments. The approach taken was to study human practitioners engaged in the management of a complex, dynamic process: anesthesiologists during neurosurgical operations. The investigation focused on understanding how team members cooperate in management and fault diagnosis and comparing this interaction to the situation with an Artificial Intelligence(AI) system that provides diagnoses and explanations. Of particular concern was to study the ways in which practitioners support one another in keeping aware of relevant information concerning the state of the monitored process and of the problem solving process.

Johannesen, Leila J.↗

Age as a diagnostic of stratospheric transport

Estimates of stratospheric age from observations of long-lived trace gases with increasing tropospheric concentrations invoke the implicit assumption that an air parcel has been transported intact from the tropopical tropopause. However, because of rapid and irreversible mixing in the stratosphere, a particular air parcel cannot be identified with one that left the troposphere at some prior time. The parcel contains a mix of air with a range of transit times, and the mean value over this range is the most appropriate definition of age. The measured tracer concentration is also a mean over the parcel, but its value depends both on the transit time distribution and the past history of the tracer in the troposphere. In principle, only if the tropospheric concentration is increasing linearly can the age be directly inferred. We illustrate these points by employing both a one-dimensional diffusive analog of stratospheric transport, and the general circulation model (GCM) of the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS). Within the limits of the GCM, we estimate the time over which tropospheric tracer concentrations must be approximately linear in order to determine stratospheric age unambiguously; the concentration of an exponentially increasing tracer is a function only of age if the growth time constant is greater than about 7 years, which is true for all the chlorofluorocarbons. More rapid source variations (for example, the annual cycle in CO2) have no such direct relationship with age.

Hall, Timothy M.↗

Solar coronal temperature diagnostics using emission line from multiple stages of ionization of iron

We obtained spatially resolved extreme-ultraviolet (EUV) spectra of AR 6615 on 1991 May 7 with NASA/ Goddard Space Flight Center's Solar EUV Rocket Telescope and Spectrograph (SERTS). Included are emission lines from four different stages of ionization of iron: Fe(+15) lambda 335 A, Fe(+14) lambda 327 A, Fe(+13) lambda 334 A, and Fe(+12) lambda 348 A. Using intensity ratios from among these lines, we have calculated the active region coronal temperature along the Solar Extreme Ultraviolet Telescope and Spectrograph (SERTS) slit. Temperatures derived from line ratios which incorporate adjacent stages of ionization are most sensitive to measurement uncertainties and yield the largest scatter. Temperatures derived from line ratios which incorporate nonadjacent stages of ionization are less sensitive to measurement uncertainties and yield little scatter. The active region temperature derived from these latter ratios has an average value of 2.54 x 10(exp 6) K, with a standard deviation approximately 0.12 x 10(exp 6) K, and shows no significant variation with position along the slit.

Brosius, Jeffrey W.↗

Use of FUV auroral emissions as diagnostic indicators

In an earlier study we modeled selected Far Ultraviolet (FUV) auroral emissions (O I(1356 A), N2 Lyman-Birge-Hopfield (LBH) (1464 A), and LBH (1838 A)) to examine the sensitivity of these emissions and their ratios to likely changes in the neutral atmosphere. In this paper we extend that study to examine the dependence of these same emissions and their ratios on the shape of the energy distribution of the auroral electrons. In particular, we wish to determine whether changes in energy spectra might interfere with our determination of the characteristic energy. Modeled column-integrated emissions show relatively small (less than 30%) dependences on the shape and width of the incident energy spectrum, provided the average energy and total energy flux of the energy distribution are held constant. Long-wavelength FUV emissions, which are relatively unaffected by O2 absorption losses, exhibit virtually no dependence on the shape of the incident energy distribution. Changes in ratios of FUV short- to long-wavelength emissions as a function of characteristic energy are much larger than those due to changes in energy distribution. As a result, the determination of characteristic energy using these emission ratios is relatively unambiguous. We also examine the relative intensities of the aurora and the dayglow for various conditions. The intensities of modeled FUV auroral emissions relative to the dayglow emissions are presented as a function of solar zenith angle and incident energy flux. Under certain conditions (energy flux less than or equal 1 erg/sq cm/s and solar zenith angle less than or equal 50 deg) the dayglow will be limiting factor in the detection of weak auroras.

Germany, G. A.↗

Coronal Magnetic Structures Observing Campaign. 3: Coronal plasma and magnetic field diagnostics derived from multiwaveband active region observations

Simultaneous soft X-ray, microwave, and photospheric magnetic field observations were taken during the Coronal Magnetic Structures Observing Campaign (CoMStOC '87). The plasma electron temperature and emission measures determined from the X-ray data are used to predict the free-free emission expected at 20 and 6 cm. Comparing these predictions with the microwave observations, it is found that the predicted 20 cm brightness temperatures are higher than the observed, requiring cool absorbing material between the hot X-ray plasma and the observer. The model that is most consistent with all the observations and minimizes the required coronal fields indicates that this 20 cm emission is either free-free or a combination of free-free and fourth harmonic cyclotron emanating from the X-ray plasma with an electron temperature of approximately 3.1 x 10(exp 6) K and an emission measure of approximately 1.3 x 10(exp 29)/cm(exp 5). The observed 20 cm polarization requires a field strength of greater than or equal to 150 G. In addition, the 6 cm emission is free-free, emanating from cooler plasma with an electron temperature of approximately 1.5 x 10(exp 6) K and an emission measure of approximately 3-6 x 10(exp 29)/cm(exp 5). This model is consistent with the rather unusual combination of high 20 cm and low 6 cm polarization as well as the low extrapolated coronal fields.

Schmelz, J. T.↗

Carbon recombination lines as a diagnostic of photodissociation regions

We have observed the C91 alpha radio recombination line toward the Orion H II region. This narrow (approximately 3-5 km per sec full width at half maximum (FWHM)) line is spatially very extended (approximately 8 arcmin or 1 pc). These charateristics compare well with the observed characteristics of the C II fine structure line at 158 microns. Thus, the C91 alpha line originates in the predominantly neutral photodissociation regions separating the H II region from the molecular cloud. We have developed theoretical models for the C II radio recombination lines from photodissociation regions. The results show that the I(C91 alpha)/I(C158) intensity ratio is a sensitive function of the temperature and density of the emitting gas. We have also extended theoretical models for photodissociation regions to include the C II recombination lines. Comparison with these models show that, in the central portion of the Orion region, the C91 alpha line originates in dense (10(exp 6) per cu cm), warm (500-1000 K) gas. Even at large projected distances (approximately 1 pc), the inferred density is still high (10(exp 5) per cu cm) and implies extremely high thermal pressures. As in the case of the (C II) 158 microns line, the large extent of the C91 alpha line shows that (FUV) photons can penetrate to large distances from the illuminating source. The decline of the intensity of the incident radiation field with distance from Theta(sup 1) C seems to be dominated by geometrical dilution, rather than dust extinction. Finally, we have used our models to calculate the intensity of the 9850 A recombination line of C II. The physical conditions inferred from this line are in good agreement with those determined from the radio recombination and the far-infrared fine-structure lines. We show that the ratio of the 9850 A to the C91 alpha lines is a very good probe of very high density clumps.

Natta, A.↗

Partitioning of ocean and land uptake of CO2 as inferred by delta C-13 measurements from the NOAA Climate Monitoring and Diagnostics Laboratory Global Air Sampling Network

Using delta C-13 measurements in atmospheric CO2 from a cooperative global air sampling network, we determined the partitioning of the net uptake of CO2 between ocean and land as a function of latitude and time. The majority of delta C-13 measurements were made at the Institute of Arctic and Alpine Research (INSTAAR) of the University of Colorado. We perform an inverse deconvolution of both CO2 and delta C-13 observations, using a two-dimensional model of atmospheric transport. Also, the discrimination against C-13 by plant photosynthesis, as a function of latitude and time, is calculated from global runs of the simple biosphere (SiB) model. Uncertainty due to the longitudinal structure of the data, which is not represented by the model, is studied through a bootstrap analysis by adding and omitting measurement sites. The resulting error estimates for our inferred sources and sinks are of the order of 1 GTC (1 GTC = 10(exp 15) gC). Such error bars do not reflect potential systematic errors arising from our estimates of the isotopic disequilibria between the atmosphere and the oceans and biosphere, which are estimated in a separate sensitivity analysis. With respect to global totals for 1992 we found that 3.2 GTC of carbon dissolved into the ocean and that 1.5 GTC were sequestered by land ecosystems. Northern hemisphere ocean gyres north of 15 deg N absorbed 2.7 GTC. The equatorial oceans between 10 deg S and 10 deg N were a net source to the atmosphere of 0.9 GTC. We obtained a sink of 1.6 GTC in southern ocean gyres south of 20 deg S, although the deconvolution is poorly constrained by sparse data coverage at high southern latitudes. The seasonal uptake of CO2 in the northern gyres appears to be correlated with a bloom of phytoplankton in surface waters. On land, northern temperate and boreal ecosystems between 35 deg N and 65 deg N were found to be a major sink of CO2 in 1992, as large as 3.5 GTC. Northern tropical ecosystems (equator-30 deg N) appear to be a net source to the source to the atmosphere of 2 GTC which could reflect biomass burning. A small sink, 0.3 GTC, was inferred for southern tropical ecosystems (30 deg S-equator).

Ciais, Philippe↗

Use of stratospheric aerosol properties as diagnostics of Antarctic vortex processes

Physical properties of the stratospheric aerosol population are inferred from cloud-free SAGE II multiwavelength extinction measurements in the Antarctic during late summer (February/March) and spring (September/October, November). Seasonal changes in these properties are used to infer physical processes occurring in the Antarctic stratosphere over the course of the winter. The analysis suggests that the apparent springtime cleansing of the Antarctic stratosphere is the result of aerosol redistribution through subsidence of the polar vortex air mass and sedimentation of large polar stratospheric cloud particles. The analysis also suggests that vortex processes are responsible for a significant downward transport of aerosol through the tropopause.

Thomason, Larry W.↗

Evaluation Of Vibration-Monitoring Gear-Diagnostic System

Report describes experimental evaluation of commercial electronic system designed to monitor vibration signal from accelerometer on gear-box to detect vibrations indicative of damage to gears. System includes signal-conditioning subsystem and personal computer in which analog-to-digital converter installed. Results show system fairly effective in detecting surface fatigue pits on spur-gear teeth.

Townsend, Dennis P.↗

SPDE: Solar Plasma Diagnostic Experiment

The physics of the Solar corona is studied through the use of high resolution soft x-ray spectroscopy and high resolution ultraviolet imagery. The investigation includes the development and application of a flight instrument, first flown in May, 1992 on NASA sounding rocket 36.048. A second flight, NASA founding rocket 36.123, took place on 25 April 1994. Both flights were successful in recording new observations relevant to the investigation. The effort in this contract covers completion of the modifications to the existing rocket payload, its reflight, and the preliminary day reduction and analysis. Experience gained from flight 36.048 led us to plan several payload design modifications. These were made to improve the sensitivity balance between the UV and EUV spectrographs, to improve the scattered light rejection in the spectrographs, to protect the visible light rejection filter for the Normal Incidence X-ray Imager instrument (NIXI), and to prepare one new multilayer mirror coating to the NIXI. We also investigated the addition of a brassboard CCD camera to the payload to test it as a possible replacement for the Eastman type 101-07 film used by the SPDE instruments. This camera was included in the experimeter's data package for the Project Initiation Conference for the flight of NASA Mission 36.123, held in January, 1994, but for programmatic reasons was deleted from the final payload configuration. The payload was shipped to the White Sands Missile Range on schedule in early April. The launch and successful recovery took place on 25 April, in coordination with the Yohkoh satellite and a supporting ground-based observing campaign.

Bruner, Marilyn E.↗

A Compact Fiber Optic Eye Diagnostic System

A new fiber optic probe developed for determining transport properties of sub-micron particles in fluid experiments in a microgravity environment has been applied to study different parts of an eye. The probe positioned in front of an eye, delivers a low power (approximately few microW) light from a laser diode into the eye and guides the light which is back scattered by different components (aqueous humor, lens, and vitreous humor) of the eye through a receiving optical fiber to a photo detector. The probe provides rapid determination of macromolecular diffusivities and their respective size distributions in the eye lens and the gel-like materials in the vitreous humor. In a clinical setting, the probe can be mounted on a standard slit-lamp apparatus simply using a Hruby lens holder. The capability of detecting cataracts, both nuclear and cortical, in their early stages of formation, in a non invasive and quantitative fashion, has the potential in patient monitoring and in developing and testing new drugs or diet therapies to 'dissolve' or slow down the cataract formation before the surgery becomes necessary. The ability to detect biochemical and macromolecular changes in the vitreous structure can be very useful in identifying certain diseases of the posterior chamber and their complications, e.g., posterior vitreous detachment and diabetic retinopathy.

Ansari, Rafat R.↗

Ophthalmic Diagnostics Using a New Dynamic Light Scattering Fiber Optic Probe

A new fiber optic probe is developed to study different parts of the eye. The probe positioned in front of an eye, delivers a low power light from a laser diode into the eye and guides the light which is back scattered by different components (aqueous humor, lens, and vitreous humor) of the eye through a receiving optical fiber to a photo detector. The probe provides rapid determination of macromolecular diffusivities and their respective size distributions in the eye lens and the gel-like material in the vitreous humor. We report alpha-crystalline size distributions, as a function of penetration depth, inside the lens and hyaluronic acid molecular size distribution in the vitreous body. In a clinical setting, the probe can be mounted on a slit-lamp apparatus simply by using a H-ruby lens holder. The capability of detecting cataracts, both nuclear and peripheral, in their early stages of formation, in a non invasive and quantitative fashion, has the potential in patient monitoring and in developing and testing new drugs or diet therapies to 'dissolve' or slow down the cataract formation before surgery is necessary. The ability to detect biochemical and macromolecular changes in the vitreous structure can be very useful in identifying certain diseases of the posterior chamber, e.g., posterior vitreous detachment.

Ansari, Rafat R.↗

Spectral diagnostics of high energy emission in lambda Eri

Multi-line observations of the optical spectrum of lambda Eri demonstrates that rapidly varying, low-velocity emissions occur in several He I lines even when H alpha shows no emission. A peculiar aspect of the He I emissions is that the ratio 5876/6678 is = 1. A theory of helium line formation generally admits two common emission mechanisms. The first is recombination/cascades, which is well known to give a ratio of greater than or equal to 3. The second is a non-LTE effect that occurs in hot (O-type) photospheres when resonance He I 584 radiation becomes transparent and drives single lines along into the emission. To accommodate a ratio of 5876/6678 = 1 may require that both processes sometimes operate at the same time, presumably in separate localities near the surface of this star.

Smith, Myron↗

A Compact Fiber Optic Eye Diagnostics System

A new fiber optic probe development for determining transport properties of sub-micron particles in fluids experiments in a microgravity environment has been applied to study different parts of the eye. The probe positioned in front of an eye, delivers a low power (approximately a few mu W) light from a laser diode into the eye and guides the light which is back scattered by different components (aqueous humor, lens, and vitreous humor) of the eye through a receiving optical fiber to a photo detector. The probe provides rapid determination of macromolecular diffusivities and their respective size distributions in the eye lens and the gel-like material in the vitreous humor. For a clinical use, the probe is mounted on a standard slit-lamp apparatus simply using Hruby lens holder. The capability of detecting cataracts, both nuclear and cortical, in their early stages of formation, in a non invasive and quantitative fashion, has the potential in patient monitoring and in developing and testing new drugs or diet therapies to 'dissolve' or slow down the cataract formation before the surgery becomes necessary. The ability to detect biochemical and macromolecular changes in the vitreous structure can be very useful in identifying certain diseases of the posterior chamber and their complications, e.g., posterior vitreous detachment and diabetic retinopathy.

Ansari, Rafat R.↗

Portable, solid state, fiber optic coupled Doppler interferometer system for detonation and shock diagnostics

VISAR (Velocity Interferometer System for Any Reflector) is a specialized Doppler interferometer system that is gaining world-wide acceptance as the standard for shock phenomena analysis. The VISAR's large power and cooling requirements, and the sensitive and complex nature of the interferometer cavity have restricted the traditional system to the laboratory. This paper describes the new portable VISAR, its peripheral sensors, and the role it played in optically measuring ground shock of and underground nuclear detonation. The Solid State VISAR uses a prototype diode pumped Nd:YAG laser and solid state detectors that provide a suitcase-size system with low power requirements. A special window and sensors were developed for fiber optic coupling (1 kilometer long) to the VISAR. The system has proven itself as a reliable, easy to use instrument that is capable of field test use and rapid data reduction using only a notebook personal computer (PC).

Fleming, K. J.↗

Assessment of Error in Synoptic-Scale Diagnostics Derived from Wind Profiler and Radiosonde Network Data

A topic of current practical interest is the accurate characterization of the synoptic-scale atmospheric state from wind profiler and radiosonde network observations. We have examined several related and commonly applied objective analysis techniques for performing this characterization and considered their associated level of uncertainty both from a theoretical and a practical standpoint. A case study is presented where two wind profiler triangles with nearly identical centroids and no common vertices produced strikingly different results during a 43-h period. We conclude that the uncertainty in objectively analyzed quantities can easily be as large as the expected synoptic-scale signal. In order to quantify the statistical precision of the algorithms, we conducted a realistic observing system simulation experiment using output from a mesoscale model. A simple parameterization for estimating the uncertainty in horizontal gradient quantities in terms of known errors in the objectively analyzed wind components and temperature is developed from these results.

Mace, Gerald G.↗

Diagnostic Statistics for the Assessment and Characterization of Complex Turbulent Flows

A simple parameterization scheme for a complex turbulent flow using nondimensional parameters coming from the Reynolds stress equations is given. Definitions and brief descriptions of the physical significance of several nondimensional parameters that are used to characterize turbulence from the viewpoint of single-point turbulence closures are given. These nondimensional parameters reflect measures of (1) the spectral band width of the turbulence; (2) deviations from the ideal Kolmogorov behavior; (3) the relative magnitude, orientation, and temporal duration of the deformation to which the turbulence is subjected; (4) one and two-point measures of the large and small scale anisotropy of the turbulence; and (5) inhomogeneity. This is an attempt to create a more systematic methodology for the diagnosis and classification of turbulent flows as well as in the development, validation, and application of turbulence model strategies. The parameters serve also to indicate the adequacy of various assumptions made in single-point turbulence models and in suggesting the appropriate turbulence strategy for a particular complex flow. The compilation will be of interest to experimentalists and to those involved in either computing turbulent flows or whose interests lies in verifying the adequacy of the phenomenological beliefs used in turbulence closures.

Ristorcelli, J. R.↗

Plume Diagnostics of the RSRM Static Firings for the Pressure Perturbation Studies

During the STS-54 launch (RSRM-29), the right hand solid rocket motor experienced a 13.9 psi chamber pressure perturbation at 67 seconds into the motor operation. This pressure augmentation equated to a thrust change of 51 klb. Concerns were raised regarding the adverse effects of this thrust imbalance on the shuttle system and the overall thrust into the external tank structural elements. Pressure perturbations have been observed in solid rocket motors due to expulsion of igniter or insulation materials; the motor thrust during such events drop abruptly before rising. However, the RSRM motors do not exhibit such behavior during the large chamber pressure perturbation events. Several scenarios were investigated to explain these pressure perturbations in the RSRM motors based on a fault tree developed after STS-54. Of these, the expulsion of the slag accumulated in the submerged nozzle region appeared to be the most plausible scenario to explain the observations. Slag is a natural combustion product of aluminized solid rocket motors. The RSRM propellant contains 16% by weight of aluminum. Any ejection of this slag mass during nozzle vectoring or other side loads on the motor will result in the chamber pressure perturbation. Two RSRM static firings were instrumented extensively to further understand the slag expulsion phenomenon in the RSRM and the associated pressure perturbations.

Mathias, Edward C.↗