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At least 1,675 records · Page 93

Verification, Validation, and Uncertainty Quantification in Thermal Hydraulics, Freeman Scholar Lecture (2019)

Engineering problems are generally solved by analytical models or computer codes. These models, in addition to conservation equations, also include many empirical relationships and approximate numerical methods. Each of these components contributes to the uncertainty in the prediction. A systematic approach to judge the applicability of the code to the intended application is needed. It starts from verification of implementation of formulation in the code, identification of important phenomena, finding relevant tests with quantified uncertainty for these phenomena, and validation of the code by comparing predictions with the relevant test data. The relevant tests must address phenomena as expected in the intended application. In case of small size or limited condition tests, the scaling analyses are needed to assess the relevancy of the tests. Finally, a statement of uncertainty in the prediction is needed. Systematic approaches are described to aggregate uncertainties from different components of the code for intended application. Here, verification, validation, and uncertainty quantifications (VVUQs) are briefly described.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Evaluation of Physical Microphysical Property Retrieval Algorithms During the 2020 IMPACTS Field Campaign

The NASA Investigation of Microphysics and Precipitation for Atlantic Coast Threatening Snowstorms (IMPACTS) field campaign provides high-quality, high-altitude aircraft lidar (532 nm), radar (W-band) and in-cloud microphysical aircraft data taken during wintertime storm events impacting the United States. This study evaluates two mass-dimensional relationships (Brown and Francis (1995, BF95); Heymsfield (2014, H14) and two lidar-radar microphysical retrieval algorithms (Cloudsat and CALIPSO Ice Cloud Property Product (2C-ICE); VarPy (a variational method derived from the satellite lidar-radar data community)) to estimate aircraft-retrieved volume extinction coefficient (σ), ice water content (IWC), and effective radius (r e ) during the 2020 IMPACTS deployment. BF95 and H14 have a close 1:1 correlation (R 2 = 0.98) with in-situ observations of σ. However, only BF95 displays a linear, consistent, and almost temperature-independent low bias for IWC and r e , which likely arises from the environmental conditions used to determine each. Unlike the field-campaign-derived BF95 and H14 relationships, VarPy and 2C-ICE directly ingest the aircraft-based lidar and radar data to simulate σ, IWC, and r e . For all three microphysical parameters, VarPy and 2C-ICE retrieval errors became notably more pronounced around the dendritic growth zone (-15°C to -10°C) and near freezing (≥-5°C), which suggests that both algorithms experience difficulty addressing riming and aggregation processes and with larger particles (dendrites and plates) due in part to their simplified ice particle assumptions. However, the mean-melt diameter ice-particle assumption did yield more accurate IWC estimates, which led to slightly better overall results for VarPy.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Galileo trajectory design

The trajectory design of the Galileo spacecraft is examined. The Galileo spacecraft was launched on a six-year long trip to Jupiter in October 1989. A new Venus-Earth-Earth-Gravity Assist (VEEGA) trajectory mode is being used for the transfer to Jupiter and involves two phasing orbits around the sun and gravity-assist flybys with Venus. The aggregate delta V acquired from these flybys is 18.3 km/s. The interplanetary trajectory includes a close flyby of asteroid 951-Gaspra in October 1991 and a possible flyby of 243-Ida in August 1993. After arrival at Jupiter in December 1995, the previously released Galileo atmospheric probe will relay data to earth via the Galileo Orbiter. The orbital phase of the mission will involve 10 orbits of Jupiter over a 22 month period. In this phase the Orbiter will use repeated gravity-assisted flybys of Europa, Ganymede and Callisto during which Jupiter, its magnetosphere and the Galilean satellites will be investigated. The mission is scheduled to end in October 1997.

D'Amario, Louis A.↗

The Relationships Between the Trends of Mean and Extreme Precipitation

This study provides a better understanding of the relationships between the trends of mean and extreme precipitation in two observed precipitation data sets: the Climate Prediction Center Unified daily precipitation data set and the Global Precipitation Climatology Program (GPCP) pentad data set. The study employs three kinds of definitions of extreme precipitation: (1) percentile, (2) standard deviation and (3) generalize extreme value (GEV) distribution analysis for extreme events based on local statistics. Relationship between trends in the mean and extreme precipitation is identified with a novel metric, i.e. area aggregated matching ratio (AAMR) computed on regional and global scales. Generally, more (less) extreme events are likely to occur in regions with a positive (negative) mean trend. The match between the mean and extreme trends deteriorates for increasingly heavy precipitation events. The AAMR is higher in regions with negative mean trends than in regions with positive mean trends, suggesting a higher likelihood of severe dry events, compared with heavy rain events in a warming climate. AAMR is found to be higher in tropics and oceans than in the extratropics and land regions, reflecting a higher degree of randomness and more important dynamical rather than thermodynamical contributions of extreme events in the latter regions.

global warming↗

Increasing aggregate size reduces single-cell organic carbon incorporation by hydrogel-embedded wetland microbes

Abstract Microbial degradation of organic carbon in sediments is impacted by the availability of oxygen and substrates for growth. To better understand how particle size and redox zonation impact microbial organic carbon incorporation, techniques that maintain spatial information are necessary to quantify elemental cycling at the microscale. In this study, we produced hydrogel microspheres of various diameters (100, 250, and 500 μm) and inoculated them with an aerobic heterotrophic bacterium isolated from a freshwater wetland (Flavobacterium sp.), and in a second experiment with a microbial community from an urban lacustrine wetland. The hydrogel-embedded microbial populations were incubated with 13C-labeled substrates to quantify organic carbon incorporation into biomass via nanoSIMS. Additionally, luminescent nanosensors enabled spatially explicit measurements of oxygen concentrations inside the microspheres. The experimental data were then incorporated into a reactive-transport model to project long-term steady-state conditions. Smaller (100 μm) particles exhibited the highest microbial cell-specific growth per volume, but also showed higher absolute activity near the surface compared to the larger particles (250 and 500 μm). The experimental results and computational models demonstrate that organic carbon availability was not high enough to allow steep oxygen gradients and as a result, all particle sizes remained well-oxygenated. Our study provides a foundational framework for future studies investigating spatially dependent microbial activity in aggregates using isotopically labeled substrates to quantify growth.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Human Factors Lessons Learned on the International Space Station

Experience on International Space Station (ISS) provides many important lessons for future space flight. NASA human factors engineers have been systematically collecting lessons learned from crew debriefs, as well as working with ground support teams to continuously improve crew operations. This paper describes the methods for collecting data from debriefs, lessons learned through that process, and an example of a technology development task funded through the Space Human Factors Engineering (SHFE) program element in response to an identified operational need. Each ISS increment crew spends many hours after the flight answering questions from the various subsystem leads. The Flight Crew Integration subsystem lead asks questions specific to human factors and habitability issues. In addition, crew comments on many other subsystems provide insight into interface designs, operability and maintainability. The debrief comments are unique to each crew, and must be categorized to provide operational lessons learned. Personal identifiers are removed and comments aggregated to separate consistent issues from personal preferences. Examples will be given, and the procedure for incorporating the lessons into requirements and guidelines for the next human space vehicle will be described. In flight, very few astronauts are medical doctors. Written medical procedures during flight need to be easy to follow and quick to understand. The problem was analyzed as part of a SHFE task. Organization was analyzed and reorganizations were created and tested. Results will be reported. The ISS is a very important analog for planning future long-term missions. Collection of data from debriefs, studying the lessons learned and focusing on requirements for future missions are examples of the accomplishments through the SHFE program.

Woolford, Barbara↗

Relationships between summertime surface albedo and melt pond fraction in the central Arctic Ocean: The aggregate scale of albedo obtained on the MOSAiC floe

As part of the Multidisciplinary drifting Observatory for the Study of Arctic Climate (MOSAiC), the HELiX uncrewed aircraft system (UAS) was deployed over the sea ice in the central Arctic Ocean during summer 2020. Albedo measurements were obtained with stabilized pyranometers, and melt pond fraction was calculated from orthomosaic imagery from a surface-imaging multispectral camera. This study analyzed HELiX flight data to provide insights on the temporal and spatial evolution of albedo and melt pond fraction of the MOSAiC floe during the melt season as it drifted south through Fram Strait. The surface albedo distributions showed peak values changing from high albedo (0.55–0.6) to lower values (0.3) as the season advanced. Inspired by methods developed for satellite data, an algorithm was established to retrieve melt pond fraction from the orthomosaic images. We demonstrate that the near-surface observations of melt pond fraction were highly dependent on sample area, offering insight into the influence of subgrid scale features and spatial heterogeneity in satellite observations. Vertical observations conducted with the HELiX were used to quantify the influence of melt pond scales on observed surface albedo as a function of sensor footprint. These scaling results were used to link surface-based measurements collected during MOSAiC to broader-scale satellite data to investigate the influence of surface features on observed albedo. Albedo values blend underlying features within the sensor footprint, as determined by the melt pond size and concentration. This study framed the downscaling (upscaling) problem related to the airborne (surface) observations of surface albedo across a variety of spatial scales.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Customer enrollment and participation in building demand management programs: A review of key factors

Increasing the efficiency and flexibility of electricity demand is necessary for ensuring a cost-effective and reliable transition to zero-carbon electricity systems. Such demand-side management (DSM) resources have been procured by utilities for decades via energy efficiency and demand response programs; however, the key drivers of program enrollment and customer participation levels remain poorly understood — even as governments and grid planners seek to scale up the deployment of DSM assets to meet climate targets. Here we systematically review the evidence on multiple factors that may influence customer enrollment and participation in building DSM programs, focusing primarily on residential and commercial buildings. We examine the contexts in which relationships between DSM factors and outcomes are most often explored and with which methods; we also score the strength, direction, and internal consistency of each factor's reported impact on the enrollment and participation outcomes. We find that studies most commonly assess the effects of economic incentives for load flexibility on program participation levels, often using simulation-based methods in lieu of measured data. Few studies focus on program enrollment outcomes or regulatory drivers of either enrollment or participation, and gaps are also evident in the coverage of emerging DSM opportunities like load electrification. Removal of structural barriers (e.g., the lack of controls infrastructure) and the use of third party services (e.g., load aggregators) are the factors with the largest positive impacts on DSM outcomes, but no single factor emerges as clearly most impactful. For a given factor, the range of reported impacts typically varies widely across the relevant studies reviewed. Our findings provide a snapshot of the state of knowledge about building DSM and customer decision-making, and they expose key gaps in understanding that must be filled if building DSM is to expand as a critical resource for operating clean power grids.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Structural evolution of low-temperature liquid GaIn eutectic alloy

Structural changes of liquid Galn eutectic alloy upon cooling from about 373 K to 242 K are studied by using in situ synchrotron radiation X-ray diffraction (XRD) combined with the ab initio molecular dynamics simulations (AIMD). The experimental and theoretical results show that no abnormal structural change is observed in the supercooled liquid region prior to crystallization. The XRD data exhibit that the liquid can crystallize into a mixture of orthorhombic Ga-I and body-centered tetragonal (bct)-In phases. Also, the AIMD calculations simulate the solidification process, forming a bct-like structure locally similar to bct-Ga-III and bct-In phases. The aggregation of In atoms forms In-rich zones, acting as the processor of crystallization. Our results provide an in-depth understanding of liquid Galn alloys and will trigger more interests to other metallic liquids. (C) 2019 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Reinforcement learning based hybrid bond-order coarse-grained interatomic potentials for exploring mesoscale aggregation in liquid–liquid mixtures

Exploring mesoscopic physical phenomena has always been a challenge for brute-force all-atom molecular dynamics simulations. Although recent advances in computing hardware have improved the accessible length scales, reaching mesoscopic timescales is still a significant bottleneck. Coarse-graining of all-atom models allows robust investigation of mesoscale physics with a reduced spatial and temporal resolution but preserves desired structural features of molecules, unlike continuum-based methods. Here, we present a hybrid bond-order coarse-grained forcefield (HyCG) for modeling mesoscale aggregation phenomena in liquid–liquid mixtures. The intuitive hybrid functional form of the potential offers interpretability to our model, unlike many machine learning based interatomic potentials. We parameterize the potential with the continuous action Monte Carlo Tree Search (cMCTS) algorithm, a reinforcement learning (RL) based global optimizing scheme, using training data from all-atom simulations. The resulting RL-HyCG correctly describes mesoscale critical fluctuations in binary liquid–liquid extraction systems. cMCTS, the RL algorithm, accurately captures the mean behavior of various geometrical properties of the molecule of interest, which were excluded from the training set. The developed potential model along with the RL-based training workflow could be applied to explore a variety of other mesoscale physical phenomena that are typically inaccessible to all-atom molecular dynamics simulations.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

The fluid mechanics of thrombus formation

Experimental data are presented for the growth of thrombi (blood clots) in a stagnation point flow of fresh blood. Thrombus shape, size and structure are shown to depend on local flow conditions. The evolution of a thrombus is described in terms of a physical model that includes platelet diffusion, a platelet aggregation mechanism, and diffusion and convection of the chemical species responsible for aggregation. Diffusion-controlled and convection-controlled regimes are defined by flow parameters and thrombus location, and the characteristic growth pattern in each regime is explained. Quantitative comparisons with an approximate theoretical model are presented, and a more general model is formulated.

Source record↗

Scattering properties of natural snow and frost - Comparison with icy satellite photometry

The Hapke (1986) equation is presently fit to ascertain the single-scattering albedo of the icy satellites of Uranus and Neptune and the one-term Henyey-Greenstein particle-phase function g for each of the Middleton and Mungall (1952) goniophotometric data samples. There emerge both very high single-scattering albedos and strongly forward-scattering particle phase functions; while these are in keeping with Mie theory-based theoretical considerations, they contrast with the observed backscattering behavior of icy satellites. It is suggested the icy satellite frost grains are aggregated into particles of complex texture, which produce the unusual backscattering behavior.

Verbiscer, Anne J.↗

Estimating PV power from aggregate power measurements within the distribution grid

The increased integration of photovoltaic (PV) systems in distribution grids reduces visibility and situational awareness for utilities because the PV systems' power production is usually not monitored by them. To address this problem, a method called Contextually Supervised Source Separation (CSSS) has been recently adapted for real-time estimation of aggregate PV active power generation from aggregate net active and reactive power measurements at a point in a radially configured distribution grid (e.g., substation). In its original version, PV disaggregation is formulated as an optimization problem that fits linear regression models for the aggregate PV active power generation and true substation active power load. This paper extends the previous work by adding regularization terms in the objective function to capture additional contextual information such as smoothness, by adding new constraints, by introducing new regressors such as ambient temperature, and by investigating the use of time-varying regressors. Furthermore, we perform extensive parametric analysis to study tuning of the objective function weighting factors in a way that maximizes performance and robustness. The proposed PV disaggregation method can be applied to networks with either a single PV system (e.g., megawatt scale) or many distributed ones (e.g., residential scale) connected downstream of the substation. Simulation studies with real field recorded data show that the enhancements of the proposed method reduce disaggregation error by 58% in winter and 35% in summer compared to previous CSSS-based work. When compared against a commonly used transposition model based approach, the reduction in disaggregation error is more pronounced (78% reduction in winter and 45% in summer). Additional simulations indicate that the proposed algorithm is also applicable for PV systems with time-varying power factors. In conclusion, overall, our results show that—with appropriate modeling and tuning—it is possible to accurately estimate the aggregated PV active power generation of a distribution feeder with minimal or no additional sensor deployment.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Exploring NaCl-PuCl 3 molten salts with machine learning interatomic potentials and graph theory

Actinide molten salts are the basis of the liquid fuels used in molten salt reactors. Due to the inherent difficulties associated with high temperature and hazardous conditions, experimental investigations of fundamental properties of these materials are usually challenging. In this work, we describe the structure and transport of NaCl-PuCl 3 mixtures using computational techniques. Three compositions were considered (16, 25, and 36 mol% PuCl 3 ) over a temperature range (730 – 1257K) using ab initio molecular dynamics, which provided the necessary data sets for training machine learned interatomic potentials. Further, molecular dynamics simulations based on these potentials were then used to determine structure and transport properties. A substantial change was noted in the structure factor when increasing the PuCl 3 content from 25 to 36 mol%. This change is linked to the aggregation of larger Pu 3+ clusters. In addition, the similarity of the atomic environments of metal cations in molten salt systems to their solid states counterparts was investigated using an unsupervised learning technique. Finally, graph theory was employed to explore the structure and size of actinide networks. Consistent with the structure factor, a dense Pu 3+ intermolecular structure is observed within the 36 mol% PuCl 3 mixture. The structure of cation-cation inter-junctions is also discussed. In all cases, the diffusion of Pu 3+ is significantly lower than that of Na + and Cl - .

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

EVSE Cybersecurity and Resilience

Consequence-driven Cybersecurity Analysis for Extreme Fast Charging Electric Vehicle Infrastructure Electric vehicle (EV) development and associated charging infrastructure are expected to advance rapidly. Thirty percent of all global vehicle sales may be EVs and hybrid EVs by 2025, and they will rely on increasingly sophisticated strategies for grid integration. Next-generation EV charging infrastructure is expected to include interconnected renewable resources, such as photovoltaic (PV) arrays and battery storage systems, along with grid-edge devices. Although distributed energy resources (DERs) are useful in several ways, such as peak shaving at high demand times and backup supply for added resilience, the integration of vehicle charging and DERs could create more avenues for cyberattack. Physical and/or remote access to EV charging station components, including charge ports, power electronics, controllers, and local generation (e.g., PV and energy storage) could be paths to cause power fluctuations, leading to altered operations at the charging station, escalated privileges to administrative systems, exfiltration of financial information (including personally identifiable information), and reduced grid stability. One compromised EV supply equipment component can open the door to a variety of exploitable vulnerabilities. Cloud computing and mobile application control have the potential to expand the threat surface to non-repudiation and firmware integrity challenges. Vendor clouds have access to hundreds of chargers, and if compromised, can scale the attack surface exponentially. The high power and voltage levels of xFC infrastructure (e.g., 400 kW at 1000- V DC) increase the hazards and ability to impact the grid and vehicles more than lower-power charging systems. Legacy communications systems and protocols could also put EV infrastructure at risk of cyberattacks requiring a robust patch management process. Communications networks link EVs and chargers to several stakeholders - including charging station operators, grid operators, vendors/manufacturers, and aggregators - who have both physical and network access to share information for control, monitoring, and analytics. Information in these networks that is vulnerable to compromise includes the state of charge, charging duration, payment information, electricity price, and load control. Analyzing and prioritizing these interconnections risks could help address cybersecurity related to data leakage and manipulation.

charging↗

Multi‐dimensional lock‐free arrays for multithreaded mode‐directed tabling in Prolog

Summary This work proposes a new design for the supporting data structures used to implement multithreaded tabling in Prolog systems. Tabling is an implementation technique that improves the expressiveness of traditional Prolog systems in dealing with recursion and redundant computations. Mode‐directed tabling is an extension to the tabling technique that supports the definition of alternative criteria for specifying how answers are aggregated, thus being very suitable for problems where the goal is to dynamically calculate optimal or selective answers. In this work, we leverage the intrinsic potential that mode‐directed tabling has to express dynamic programming problems by creating a new design that improves the representation of multi‐dimensional arrays in the context of multithreaded tabling. To do so, we introduce a new mode for indexing arguments in mode‐directed tabled evaluations, named dim , where each dim argument features a uni‐dimensional lock‐free array. Experimental results using well‐known dynamic programming problems on a 32‐core machine show that the new design introduces less overheads and clearly improves the execution time for sequential and multithreaded tabled evaluations.

Areias, Miguel↗

Protein model quality assessment using rotation–equivariant transformations on point clouds

Machine learning research concerning protein structure has seen a surge in popularity over the last years with promising advances for basic science and drug discovery. Working with macromolecular structure in a machine learning context requires an adequate numerical representation, and researchers have extensively studied representations such as graphs, discretized 3D grids, and distance maps. As part of CASP14, we explored a new and conceptually simple representation in a blind experiment: atoms as points in 3D, each with associated features. These features—initially just the basic element type of each atom—are updated through a series of neural network layers featuring rotation-equivariant convolutions. Starting from all atoms, we further aggregate information at the level of alpha carbons before making a prediction at the level of the entire protein structure. We find that this approach yields competitive results in protein model quality assessment despite its simplicity and despite the fact that it incorporates minimal prior information and is trained on relatively little data. As a result, its performance and generality are particularly noteworthy in an era where highly complex, customized machine learning methods such as AlphaFold 2 have come to dominate protein structure prediction.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Interpretable artificial intelligence and exascale molecular dynamics simulations to reveal kinetics: Applications to Alzheimer's disease

The rapid increase in computing power, especially with the integration of graphics processing units, has dramatically increased the capabilities of molecular dynamics simulations. To date, these capabilities extend from running very long simulations (tens to hundreds of microseconds) to thousands of short simulations. However, the expansive data generated in these simulations must be made interpretable not only by the investigator who performs them but also by others as well. Here, we demonstrate how integrating learning techniques, such as artificial intelligence, machine learning, and neural networks, into analysis pipelines can reveal the kinetics of Alzheimer's disease (AD) protein aggregation. Finally, we review select AD targets, describe current simulation methods, and introduce learning concepts and their application in AD, highlighting limitations and potential solutions.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗