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At least 1,675 records · Page 93
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2001

Routine High-Resolution Forecasts/Analyses for the Pacific Disaster Center: User Manual

Enclosed herein is our HWCMO user manual. This manual constitutes the final report for our NASA/PDC grant, NASA NAG5-8730, "Routine High Resolution Forecasts/Analysis for the Pacific Disaster Center". Since the beginning of the grant, we have routinely provided experimental high resolution forecasts from the RSM/MSM for the Hawaii Islands, while working to upgrade the system to include: (1) a more robust input of NCEP analyses directly from NCEP; (2) higher vertical resolution, with increased forecast accuracy; (3) faster delivery of forecast products and extension of initial 1-day forecasts to 2 days; (4) augmentation of our basic meteorological and simplified fireweather forecasts to firedanger and drought forecasts; (5) additional meteorological forecasts with an alternate mesoscale model (MM5); and (6) the feasibility of using our modeling system to work in higher-resolution domains and other regions. In this user manual, we provide a general overview of the operational system and the mesoscale models as well as more detailed descriptions of the models. A detailed description of daily operations and a cost analysis is also provided. Evaluations of the models are included although it should be noted that model evaluation is a continuing process and as potential problems are identified, these can be used as the basis for making model improvements. Finally, we include our previously submitted answers to particular PDC questions (Appendix V). All of our initially proposed objectives have basically been met. In fact, a number of useful applications (VOG, air pollution transport) are already utilizing our experimental output and we believe there are a number of other applications that could make use of our routine forecast/analysis products. Still, work still remains to be done to further develop this experimental weather, climate, fire danger and drought prediction system. In short, we would like to be a part of a future PDC team, if at all possible, to further develop and apply the system for the Hawaiian and other Pacific Islands as well as the entire Pacific Basin.

Roads, John↗
DOE OSTI2022

Valuing Residential Energy Efficiency: Analysis for a Prototypical Southeastern Utility [Slides]

The increasing amount of variable renewable energy resources and shifts towards more end-use and vehicle electrification suggests profound changes to power system planning and operation. Specifically, renewable energy is expected to shift net peak demand from late afternoon to early evening and end-use electrification may significantly increase winter peak demand. Residential energy efficiency is likely to align well with these shifts as it tends to produce savings in the early evening (e.g., from lighting measures) and coincident with heating loads (e.g., from envelope and space conditioning measures). Despite the opportunity to decrease system costs and emissions, residential energy efficiency is often limited by static valuation methods and its economic potential is considerably less than its technical potential. Using hourly residential energy efficiency characterizations, utility program cost data, and a capacity expansion model, we estimate the benefits of residential energy efficiency for a prototypical, summer-peaking utility in the Southeastern region. We first establish the cost-effective residential energy efficiency portfolio through “competition” with supply-side resources in a forward-looking capacity expansion model. Importantly, we then evaluate several scenarios intended to drive an increasing amount of cost-effective residential energy efficiency through measure cost reductions, increased customer adoption, policy goals (e.g., carbon price), and delivery of an integrated package of measures. The results quantify total system cost and emissions reductions, fossil-fuel plant retirements, and peak demand reductions. Results suggest the design and prioritization of policies and programs to access the untapped amount of cost-effective residential energy efficiency.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2025

A Demand Bidding Model for Multi-Product Industrial Plants

The growing contribution of renewable energy sources has increased volatility and uncertainty in electricity markets, challenging traditional grid operation paradigms. Demand bidding (DB), a market participation model where (large) electricity users communicate their willingness to pay for electricity to the grid operator, was shown in previous work to enhance grid stability and lower generation cost. We present a DB model for multi-product industrial plants, based on an extended optimal power flow problem where the plant dynamics are represented using autoregressive with extra inputs (ARX) models. We compare DB to price-based demand-side management, showing that, under certain assumptions, the two approaches are equivalent, while DB provides more transparency and predictability to the grid operator. A case study based on an industrial air separation unit is discussed.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
NASA NTRS2004

Data Fusion in Wind Tunnel Testing; Combined Pressure Paint and Model Deformation Measurements (Invited)

As the benefit-to-cost ratio of advanced optical techniques for wind tunnel measurements such as Video Model Deformation (VMD), Pressure-Sensitive Paint (PSP), and others increases, these techniques are being used more and more often in large-scale production type facilities. Further benefits might be achieved if multiple optical techniques could be deployed in a wind tunnel test simultaneously. The present study discusses the problems and benefits of combining VMD and PSP systems. The desirable attributes of useful optical techniques for wind tunnels, including the ability to accommodate the myriad optical techniques available today, are discussed. The VMD and PSP techniques are briefly reviewed. Commonalties and differences between the two techniques are discussed. Recent wind tunnel experiences and problems when combining PSP and VMD are presented, as are suggestions for future developments in combined PSP and deformation measurements.

Bell, James H.↗
DOE OSTI2025

Techno-economic design of a linear Fresnel reflector for industrial process heat

A techno-economic model of a Concentrating Solar Thermal (CST) system using a Linear Fresnel Reflector (LFR) has been developed. LFRs can deliver process heat suitable for a range of industries, including food and beverage production. This model uses an adaptive algorithm to calculate the optimal secondary reflector shape given the geometry and optical properties of the rest of the system. A ray-tracing program is used to calculate optical efficiency over a wide range of longitudinal and transversal incidence angles and subsequently evaluate the annual efficiency at a given geographical location. A specific LFR design developed by Hyperlight Energy was modelled, and this industrial partner provided a detailed cost breakdown which was used as the basis of an economic model. Combining the technical and economic data facilitates the calculation of the Levelized Cost of Heat (LCOH). The influence of a number of parameters on the annual efficiency and LCOH is explored; notable parameters include the absorber height, the number, width, and spacing of the primary mirrors, the aim point, and the secondary reflector shape and width. By identifying an optimal combination of these parameters, we reduce the LCOH of the industry partner’s system design by 9.2%, from 14.4 $\$/MWh_{th}$ to 13.0 $\$/MWh_{th}$. In comparison, the LCOH of a natural gas boiler delivering the same annual quantity of heat is 29 $\$/MWh_{th}$, which indicates that LFRs can be a competitive heat source for industrial processes.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2023

Comparing Parallel Plastic‐to‐X Pathways and Their Role in a Circular Economy for PET Bottles

Abstract The United States generates the most plastic waste of any country and is a top contributor to global plastic pollution. Multiple end‐of‐life strategies must be implemented to minimize environmental impacts and retain valuable plastic material, but it is challenging to compare options that generate products with different lifetimes and utilities. Herein, they present a material flow model equipped with consequential life cycle assessment, cost analysis, and a plastic circularity indicator that considers product quality and lifetime. The model is used to estimate the greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, circularity, and cost of polyethylene terephthalate (PET) bottle mechanical downcycling to lower‐quality resin, closed‐loop glycolysis to food‐grade PET, upcycling to glass fiber‐reinforced plastic, and conversion to non‐plastic products (electricity, oil) on a United States economy‐wide basis for the year 2020. A brute force algorithm suggests that a combination of 68% glycolysis, 11% mechanical recycling, 6% upcycling, 9% landfilling, and 5% incineration can minimize the cost and GHG emissions and maximize the circularity of the current PET economy. However, uncertainty around transportation distances, materials recovery facility efficiencies, and recycling yields can result in different “optimal” pathway mixes. This flexible framework enables informed decision‐making to move toward a cost‐ and environment‐conscious circular economy for plastic.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Secondary battery management system

A method and system for managing a battery system. The method including receiving at least one measured characteristic of the battery over a pre-defined time horizon from the at least one sensor, receiving at least one estimated characteristic of the battery from a electrochemical-based battery model based on differential algebraic equations, determining a cost function of a Moving Horizon Estimation based on the at least one measured characteristic and the at least one estimated characteristic, updating the electrochemical-based battery model based on the cost function, estimating at least one state of the at least one battery cell by applying the electrochemical-based battery model, and regulating at least one of charging or discharging of the battery based on the estimation of the at least one state of the at least one battery cell.

MirTabatabaei, Anahita↗
DOE OSTI2023

Justice 40 Tool (J40 Tool) v1.0

The Justice 40 tool provides a quantitative framework to support decision-making around equitable energy interventions at the community level. The tool calculates the optimal portfolio of policy interventions that explicitly mitigates energy insecurity of an eligible population, by reducing its disproportionate energy burden. The place-based analysis assumes a spatial census tract-level resolution and distinguishes different sociodemographic groups within each tract. Instead of focusing on a specific technology, the underlying J40 model captures the combined effect of a set of policy interventions, currently including weatherization, rooftop solar, community solar and community wind. For each tract, the model chooses the optimal (least cost) combination of interventions to address the disproportionate burden, considering the specific population demographics and techno-economic potentials of technologies. Mathematically, this problem is formalized as an optimization model and formulated as a linear program.

Heleno, Miguel↗
DOE OSTI2024

Extended dynamic mode decomposition for model reduction in fluid dynamics simulations

High computational cost and storage/memory requirements of fluid dynamics simulations constrain their usefulness as a predictive tool. Reduced-order models (ROMs) provide a viable solution to this challenge by extracting the key underlying dynamics of a complex system directly from data. We investigate the efficacy and robustness of an extended dynamic mode decomposition (xDMD) algorithm in constructing ROMs of three-dimensional cardiovascular computations. Focusing on the ROMs' accuracy in representation and interpolation, we relate these metrics to the truncation rank of singular value decomposition, which underpins xDMD and other approaches to ROM construction. Our key innovation is to relate the truncation rank to the singular values of the original flow problem. This result establishes a priori guidelines for the xDMD deployment and its likely success as a means of data compression and reconstruction of the system's dynamics from dominant spatiotemporal structures present in the data.

Mechanics↗
DOE OSTI2024

Evidential Deep Learning: Enhancing Predictive Uncertainty Estimation for Earth System Science Applications

Abstract Robust quantification of predictive uncertainty is a critical addition needed for machine learning applied to weather and climate problems to improve the understanding of what is driving prediction sensitivity. Ensembles of machine learning models provide predictive uncertainty estimates in a conceptually simple way but require multiple models for training and prediction, increasing computational cost and latency. Parametric deep learning can estimate uncertainty with one model by predicting the parameters of a probability distribution but does not account for epistemic uncertainty. Evidential deep learning, a technique that extends parametric deep learning to higher-order distributions, can account for both aleatoric and epistemic uncertainties with one model. This study compares the uncertainty derived from evidential neural networks to that obtained from ensembles. Through applications of the classification of winter precipitation type and regression of surface-layer fluxes, we show evidential deep learning models attaining predictive accuracy rivaling standard methods while robustly quantifying both sources of uncertainty. We evaluate the uncertainty in terms of how well the predictions are calibrated and how well the uncertainty correlates with prediction error. Analyses of uncertainty in the context of the inputs reveal sensitivities to underlying meteorological processes, facilitating interpretation of the models. The conceptual simplicity, interpretability, and computational efficiency of evidential neural networks make them highly extensible, offering a promising approach for reliable and practical uncertainty quantification in Earth system science modeling. To encourage broader adoption of evidential deep learning, we have developed a new Python package, Machine Integration and Learning for Earth Systems (MILES) group Generalized Uncertainty for Earth System Science (GUESS) (MILES-GUESS) ( https://github.com/ai2es/miles-guess ), that enables users to train and evaluate both evidential and ensemble deep learning. Significance Statement This study demonstrates a new technique, evidential deep learning, for robust and computationally efficient uncertainty quantification in modeling the Earth system. The method integrates probabilistic principles into deep neural networks, enabling the estimation of both aleatoric uncertainty from noisy data and epistemic uncertainty from model limitations using a single model. Our analyses reveal how decomposing these uncertainties provides valuable insights into reliability, accuracy, and model shortcomings. We show that the approach can rival standard methods in classification and regression tasks within atmospheric science while offering practical advantages such as computational efficiency. With further advances, evidential networks have the potential to enhance risk assessment and decision-making across meteorology by improving uncertainty quantification, a longstanding challenge. This work establishes a strong foundation and motivation for the broader adoption of evidential learning, where properly quantifying uncertainties is critical yet lacking.

Schreck, John S.↗
NASA NTRS1994

Large-eddy simulation of a plane wake

Previously the theoretical development leading to the dynamic localization model (DLM) for large-eddy simulation (LES) was presented. The method has been successfully applied to isotropic turbulence, channel flow, and the flow over a backward-facing step. Here we apply the model to the computation of the temporally developing place wake. The two main objectives of this project are: (1) Use the model to perform an LES of a time developing plane wake and compare the results with direction numerical simulation (DNS) data to see if important statistical measures can be readily predicted, and to provide a relative evaluation of the several versions of the model in terms of predictive capability and cost; and (2) If the tests in (1) show that the model generates reliable predictions, then use the LES to study various aspects of the physics of turbulent wakes and mixing layers.

Ghosal, Sandip↗
NASA NTRS1999

Optimal System Realization in Frequency Domain

Several approaches are presented to identify an experimental system model directly from frequency response data. The formulation begins with a matrix-fraction description as the model structure. Frequency weighting such as exponential weighting is introduced to solve a weighted least-squares problem to obtain the coefficient matrices for the matrix-fraction description. A multi-variable state-space model can then be formed using the coefficient matrices of the matrix-fraction description. An approach is introduced to fine-tune the model using non-linear programming methods to minimize the desired cost function. The method deals with the model in the real Schur or modal form and reassigns a subset of system poles using a nonlinear optimizer. At every optimization step, the input and output influence matrices are refined through least-squares procedures. The proposed approaches are used to identify an analytical model for a NASA testbed from experimental data.

Juang, Jer-Nan↗
DOE OSTI2024

Towards Immobilized Proton-Coupled Electron Transfer Agents for Electrochemical Carbon Capture from Air and Seawater

Electrochemical CO 2 separation has drawn attention as a promising strategy for using renewable energy to mitigate climate change. Redox-active compounds that undergo proton-coupled electron transfer (PCET) are an impetus for pH-swing-driven CO 2 capture at low energetic costs. However, multiple barriers hinder this technology from maturing, including sensitivity to oxygen and the slow kinetics of CO 2 capture. Here, we use vapor phase chemistry to construct a textile electrode comprising an immobilized PCET agent, poly(1-aminoanthraquinone) (PAAQ), and incorporate it into redox flow cells. This design contrasts with others that use dissolved PCET agents by confining proton-storage to the surface of an electrode kept separate from an aqueous, CO 2 -capturing phase. This system facilitates carbon capture from gaseous sources (a 1% CO 2 feed and air), as well as seawater, with the latter at an energetic cost of 202 kJ/mol CO2 , and we find that quinone moieties embedded within the electrode are more stable to oxygen than dissolved counterparts. Simulations using a 1D reaction-transport model show that moderate energetic costs should be possible for air capture of CO 2 with higher loadings of polymer-bound PCET moieties. The remarkable stability of this system sets the stage for producing textile-based electrodes that facilitate pH-swing-driven carbon capture in practical situations.

Ali, Fawaz↗
NASA NTRS1988

Analysis procedures and subjective flight results of a simulator validation and cue fidelity experiment

A joint experiment to investigate simulator validation and cue fidelity was conducted by the Dryden Flight Research Facility of NASA Ames Research Center (Ames-Dryden) and NASA Langley Research Center. The primary objective was to validate the use of a closed-loop pilot-vehicle mathematical model as an analytical tool for optimizing the tradeoff between simulator fidelity requirements and simulator cost. The validation process includes comparing model predictions with simulation and flight test results to evaluate various hypotheses for differences in motion and visual cues and information transfer. A group of five pilots flew air-to-air tracking maneuvers in the Langley differential maneuvering simulator and visual motion simulator and in an F-14 aircraft at Ames-Dryden. The simulators used motion and visual cueing devices including a g-seat, a helmet loader, wide field-of-view horizon, and a motion base platform.

Carr, Peter C.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Fast and Precise Trajectory Simulation for Entry, Descent, and Landing Using A Multi-Model Monte Carlo Approach

Predicting landing radius and other quantities of interest (QoI) for entry, descent, and landing (EDL) applications requires a viable uncertainty propagation method for quantifying the impact of uncertainties in wind pattern variations, atmospheric uncertainties, etc. While standard MC simulation is the defacto standard for providing robust and unbiased predictions,it is often infeasible for expensive, high-fidelity EDL models. Low-fidelity models are commonly constructed to replace the high-fidelity model in MC simulation for computational speedup,but at the expense of accuracy and unbiasedness. Emerging multi-model MC methods are bridging this gap by combining predictions from two or more models of varying fidelity and computational cost for efficient and unbiased uncertainty propagation. This work explores the use of multi-model MC for increasing the speed and precision of trajectory simulation for EDL. It is shown that combining a high-fidelity EDL model with low-fidelity models (e.g,data-driven, reduced physics) yields substantial computational speedup versus standard MCwith only the high-fidelity model. Moreover, the unbiasedness of multi-model MC predictions is highlighted by showing increased accuracy versus an approach that leverages a low-fidelity surrogate model alone.

James E. Warner↗
DOE OSTI2025

Integrating Ultra-Coarse-Grained Protein Models into Accessible Workflows for Multiscale Molecular Dynamics

To capture protein conformational transitions using molecular dynamics (MD), several simulation resolutions covering different spatial and temporal scales are typically needed. All-atom (AA) simulations provide fine resolution, but are computationally infeasible for large systems over longer durations. Coarse-grained (CG) and ultra-coarse-grained (UCG) models have a lower resolution and computational cost while still being able to conserve essential protein features. Prior work on a Multiscale Machinelearned Modeling Infrastructure (MuMMI) combined both AA and CG simulations to study RAS-RAF protein interactions, leveraging CG models for longer time scales and using AA to investigate unusual conformations in greater detail. However, MuMMI is still resource-intensive, and this study aims to maximize exploration of the protein conformational space while reducing computational cost. In this paper, we build on prior work that integrates UCG models based on heterogeneous elastic network modeling (hENM) into the MuMMI workflow. We demonstrate that UCG models enable accurate sampling of protein conformations, focusing on simulating RAS-RAF protein interactions. Using higher-resolution CG Martini simulation data, we can automatically refine intramolecular interactions in UCG models. We present a scalable Python package that uses fluctuations observed in higher-resolution CG Martini simulations to estimate bond coefficients of the UCG model. We built novel machine learning-based backmapping methods to recover more detailed CG Martini structures from UCG structures, using diffusion models to learn the mapping between scales. Finally, we present UCG-mini-MuMMI, an accessible and less compute-intensive version of MuMMI as a resource for the scientific community. Incorporating UCG models into MD studies is applicable to a broad range of systems and proteins, and our study offers insights into the advantages and limitations of these methods.

Chemical structure↗
DOE OSTI2024

Multifidelity methods for uncertainty quantification of a nonlocal model for phase changes in materials

This study is devoted to the construction of a multifidelity Monte Carlo (MFMC) method for the uncertainty quantification of a nonlocal, non-mass-conserving Cahn-Hilliard model for phase transitions with an obstacle potential. Here, we are interested in estimating the expected value of an output of interest (OoI) that depends on the solution of the nonlocal Cahn-Hilliard model. As opposed to its local counterpart, the nonlocal model captures sharp interfaces without the need for significant mesh refinement. However, the computational cost of the nonlocal Cahn-Hilliard model is higher than that of its local counterpart with similar mesh refinement, inhibiting its use for outer-loop applications such as uncertainty quantification. The MFMC method augments the desired high-fidelity, high-cost OoI with a set of lower-fidelity, lower-cost OoIs to alleviate the computational burden associated with nonlocality. Most of the computational budget is allocated to sampling the cheap surrogate models to achieve speedup, whereas the high-fidelity model is sparsely sampled to maintain accuracy. For the non-mass-conserving nonlocal Cahn-Hilliard model, the use of the MFMC method results in, for a given computational budget, about an order of magnitude reduction in the mean-squared error of the expected value of the OoI relative to that of the Monte Carlo method.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2025

Gaussian FLOWERS: Wind-rose-based analytical integration of Gaussian wake model for extremely fast AEP estimation

A major cost in the study of wind farm layout optimization is the repeated evaluation of the annual energy production (AEP). The current approach to estimating AEP requires a large set of flow simulations to be performed that cover each discrete wind speed and direction combination contained within the wind rose, followed by a probability-weighted sum of the power production resulting from each simulation. Even with inexpensive engineering wake models, this numerical integration scheme can lead to high computational costs. In this paper, we derive an analytical formulation for estimating farm AEP across every wind direction, based on a Gaussian wake velocity model, which reduces the number of wind farm simulations to a single function evaluation. As a result, we find that the Gaussian-FLOWERS approach reduces the time for AEP calculations by more than two orders of magnitude with a small trade-off in accuracy when compared to a conventional approach. This massive reduction in computation cost is useful to reduce overall costs in wind farm layout optimization studies.

17 WIND ENERGY↗