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National Environmental Policy Act Hazards Assessment for the TREAT Alternative

This document provides an assessment of hazards as required by the National Environmental Policy Act for the alternative of restarting the reactor at the Transient Reactor Test (TREAT) facility by the Resumption of Transient Testing Program. Potential hazards have been identified and screening level calculations have been conducted to provide estimates of unmitigated dose consequences that could be incurred through this alternative. Consequences considered include those related to use of the TREAT Reactor, experiment assembly handling, and combined events involving both the reactor and experiments. In addition, potential safety structures, systems, and components for processes associated with operating TREAT and onsite handling of nuclear fuels and experiments are listed. If this alternative is selected, a safety basis will be prepared in accordance with 10 CFR 830, “Nuclear Safety Management,” Subpart B, “Safety Basis Requirements.”

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

Bridging the Divide: Linking Genomics to Ecosystem Responses to Climate Change: Final Report

Over the project period, we have addressed the following objectives: 1) assess the effects of altered precipitation patterns (i.e., increased variability in growing season precipitation) on genetic diversity of the dominant C4 grass species, Andropogon gerardii, and 2) experimentally assess the impacts of extreme climatic events (heat wave, drought) on responses of the dominant C4 grasses, A. gerardii and Sorghastrum nutans, and the consequences of these response for community and ecosystem structure and function. Below is a summary of how we have addressed these objectives. Objective 1 After ten years of altered precipitation, we found the number of genotypes of A. gerardii was significantly reduced compared to the ambient precipitation treatments (Avolio et al., 2013a). Although genotype number was reduced, the remaining genotypes were less related to one another indicating that the altered precipitation treatment was selecting for increasingly dissimilar genomes (based on mean pairwise Dice distance among individuals). For the four key genotypes that displayed differential abundances depending on the precipitation treatment (G1, G4, and G11 in the altered plots and G2 in the ambient plots), we identified phenotypic differences in the field that could account for ecological sorting (Avolio & Smith, 2013a). The three altered rainfall genotypes also have very different phenotypic traits in the greenhouse in response to different soil moisture availabilities (Avolio and Smith, 2013c). Two of the genotypes that increased in abundance in the altered precipitation plots had greater allocation to root biomass (G4 and G11), while G1 allocated more biomass aboveground. These phenotypic differences among genotypes suggests that changes in genotypic structure between the altered and the ambient treatments has likely occurred via niche differentiation, driven by changes in soil moisture dynamics (reduced mean, increased variability and changes in the depth distribution of soil moisture) under a more variable precipitation regime, rather than reduced population numbers (A. gerardii tiller densities did not differ between altered and ambient treatments; p = 0.505) or a priori differences in genotype richness (Avolio et al.2013a). This ecological sorting of genotypes, which accounts for 40% of all sampled individuals in the altered plots, is an important legacy of the press chronic climate changes in the RaMPs experiment. Objective 2 In May 2010, we established the Climate Extremes Experiment at the Konza Prairie Biological Station. For the experiment, a gradient of temperatures, ranging from ambient to extreme, were imposed in 2010 and 2011 as a mid-season heat wave under well-watered or severe drought conditions. This study allowed us for the first time to examine species-specific thresholds of responses to climate extremes and assess how these phenotypic responses may impact selection of particular genotypes, with the ultimate goal of linking alterations in individual performance and genetic diversity to ecosystem structure and functioning. We found that tallgrass prairie was resistant to heat waves, but it was not resistant to extreme drought, which reduced aboveground net primary productivity (ANPP) below the lowest level measured in this grassland in almost thirty years (Hoover et al. in press(a)). This extreme reduction in ecosystem function was a consequence of reduced productivity of both C4 grasses and C3 forbs. This reduction in biomass of the C4 grasses (Andropogon gerardii and Sorghastrum nutans) was, in part, due to significant reductions in photosynthesis, leaf water potential and productivity with drought in the dominant grasses species, with S. nutans was more sensitive than A. gerardii to drought (Hoover et al. in press(b)). However, the dominant forb was negatively impacted by the drought more than the dominant grasses, and this led to a reordering of species abundances within the plant community. Although this change in community composition persisted post-drought, ANPP recovered completely the year after drought due to rapid demographic responses by the dominant grass, compensating for loss of the dominant forb. Overall, our results show that an extreme reduction in ecosystem function attributable to a climate extreme (e.g., low resistance) does not preclude rapid ecosystem recovery. Given that dominance by a few species is characteristic of most ecosystems, knowledge of the traits of these species and their responses to climate extremes will be key for predicting future ecosystem dynamics and function. In addition, our research suggests that water stress will dominate photosynthetic and productivity responses caused by discrete drought and heat wave events, rather than direct or additive effects of heat stress, with differential sensitivity in these grasses altering future ecosystem function.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

LIHE Spectral Dynamics and Jaguar Data Acquisition System Measurement Assurance Results 2014

The Light Initiated High Explosive (LIHE) facility performs high rigor, high consequence impulse testing for the nuclear weapons (NW) community. To support the facility mission, LIHE's extensive data acquisition system (DAS) is comprised of several discrete components as well as a fully integrated system. Due to the high consequence and high rigor of the testing performed at LIHE, a measurement assurance plan (MAP) was developed in collaboration with NW system customers to meet their data quality needs and to provide assurance of the robustness of the LIHE DAS. While individual components of the DAS have been calibrated by the SNL Primary Standards Laboratory (PSL), the integrated nature of this complex system requires verification of the complete system, from end-to-end. This measurement assurance plan (MAP) report documents the results of verification and validation procedures used to ensure that the data quality meets customer requirements.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗

Analysis of Cavern and Well Stability at the West Hackberry SPR Site Using a Full-Dome Model

This report presents computational analyses that simulate the structural response of caverns at the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) West Hackberry site. The cavern field comprises 22 caverns. Five caverns (6, 7, 8, 9, 11) were acquired from industry and have unusual shapes and a history dating back to 1946. The other 17 caverns (101-117) were leached according to SPR standards in the mid-1980s and have tall cylindrical shapes. The history of the caverns and their shapes are simulated in a three-dimensional geomechanics model of the site that predicts deformations, strains, and stresses. Future leaching scenarios corresponding to oil drawdowns using fresh water are also simulated by increasing the volume of the caverns. Cavern pressures are varied in the model to capture operational practices in the field. The results of the finite element model are interpreted to provide information on the current and future status of subsidence, well integrity, and cavern stability. The most significant results in this report are relevant to Cavern 6. The cavern is shaped like a bowl with a large ceiling span and is in close proximity to Cavern 9. The analyses predict tensile stresses at the edge of the ceiling during repressurization of Cavern 6 following workover conditions. During a workover the cavern is at low pressure to service a well. The wellhead pressures are atmospheric. When the workover is complete, the cavern is repressurized. The resulting elastic stresses are sufficient to cause tension around the edge of the large ceiling span. With time, these stresses relax to a compressive state because of salt creep. However, the potential for salt fracture and propagation exists, particularly towards Cavern 9. With only 200 feet of salt between the caverns, the operational consequences must be examined if the two caverns become connected. A critical time may be during a workover of Cavern 9 in part because of the operational vulnerabilities, but also because dilatant damage is predicted under the ledge that forms the lower lobe in the cavern. The remaining caverns have no significant issues regarding cavern stability and may be safely enlarged during subsequent oil drawdowns. Predicted well strains and subsidence are significant and consequently future remedial actions may be necessary. These predicted well strains certainly suggest appropriate monitoring through a well-logging program. Subsidence is currently being monitored.

02 PETROLEUM↗

Framework for Modeling High-Impact, Low-Frequency Power Grid Events to Support Risk-Informed Decisions

Natural and man-made hazardous events resulting in loss of grid infrastructure assets challenge the electric power grid’s security and resilience. However, the planning and allocation of appropriate contingency resources for such events requires an understanding of their likelihood and the extent of their potential impact. Where these events are of low likelihood, a risk-informed perspective on planning can be problematic as there exists an insufficient statistical basis to directly estimate the probabilities and consequences of their occurrence. Since risk-informed decisions rely on such knowledge, a basis for modeling the risk associated with high-impact low frequency events (HILFs) is essential. Insights from such a model can inform where resources are most rationally and effectively expended. The present effort is focused on development of a HILF risk assessment framework. Such a framework is intended to provide the conceptual and overarching technical basis for the development of HILF risk models that can inform decision makers across numerous stakeholder sectors. The North American Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC) 2014 Standard TPL-001-4 considers severe events for transmission reliability planning, but does not address events of such severity that they have the potential to fail a substantial fraction of grid assets over a region, such as geomagnetic disturbances (GMD), extreme seismic events, and coordinated cyber-physical attacks. These are beyond current planning guidelines. As noted, the risks associated with such events cannot be statistically estimated based on historic experience; however, there does exist a stable of risk modeling techniques for rare events that have proven of value across a wide range of engineering application domains. There is an active and growing interest in evaluating the value of risk management techniques in the State transmission planning and emergency response communities, some of this interest in the context of grid modernization activities. The availability of a grid HILF risk model, integrated across multi-hazard domains which, when interrogated, can support transparent, defensible and effective decisions, is an attractive prospect among these communities. In this report, we document an integrated HILF risk framework intended to inform the development of risk models. These models would be based on the systematic and comprehensive (to within scope) characterization of hazards to the level of detail required for modeling risk, identification of the stressors associated with the hazards (i.e., the means of impacting grid and supporting infrastructure), characterization of the vulnerability of assets to these stressors and the probabilities of asset compromise, the grid’s dynamic response to the asset failures, and assessment of subsequent severities of consequence with respect to selected impact metrics, such as power outage duration and geographic reach. Specifically, the current framework is being developed to;1. Provide the conceptual and overarching technical paradigms for the development of risk models; 2. Identify the classes of models required to implement the framework - providing examples of existing models, and also identifying where modeling gaps exist; 3. Identify the types of data required, addressing circumstances under which data are sparse and the formal elicitation of informed judgment might be required; and 4. Identify means by which the resultant risk models might be interrogated to form the necessary basis for risk management.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Integrated Human Futures Modeling in Egypt

The Integrated Human Futures Project provides a set of analytical and quantitative modeling and simulation tools that help explore the links among human social, economic, and ecological conditions, human resilience, conflict, and peace, and allows users to simulate tradeoffs and consequences associated with different future development and mitigation scenarios. In the current study, we integrate five distinct modeling platforms to simulate the potential risk of social unrest in Egypt resulting from the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) on the Blue Nile in Ethiopia. The five platforms simulate hydrology, agriculture, economy, human ecology, and human psychology/behavior, and show how impacts derived from development initiatives in one sector (e.g., hydrology) might ripple through to affect other sectors and how development and security concerns may be triggered across the region. This approach evaluates potential consequences, intended and unintended, associated with strategic policy actions that span the development-security nexus at the national, regional, and international levels. Model results are not intended to provide explicit predictions, but rather to provide system-level insight for policy makers into the dynamics among these interacting sectors, and to demonstrate an approach to evaluating short- and long-term policy trade-offs across different policy domains and stakeholders. The GERD project is critical to government-planned development efforts in Ethiopia but is expected to reduce downstream freshwater availability in the Nile Basin, fueling fears of negative social and economic impacts that could threaten stability and security in Egypt. We tested these hypotheses and came to the following preliminary conclusions. First, the GERD will have an important short-term impact on water availability, food production, and hydropower production in Egypt, depending on the short- term reservoir fill rate. Second, the GERD will have a very small impact on water availability in the Nile Basin over the longer term. Depending on the GERD fill rate, short-term (e.g., within its first 5 years of operation) annual losses in Egyptian food production may peak briefly at 25 percent. Long-term (e.g., 15 to 30 year) cumulative losses in Egypt's food production may be less than 3 percent regardless of the fill rate, with the GERD having essentially no impact on projected annual food production in Egypt about 25 years after opening. For the quick fill rates, the short-term losses may be sufficient to create an important decrease in overall household health among the general population, which, along with other economic stressors and different strategies employed by the government, could lead to social unrest. Third, and perhaps most importantly, our modeling suggests that the GERD's effect on Egypt's food and water resources is small when compared to the effect of projected Egyptian population and economic growth (and the concomitant increase in water consumption). The latter dominating factors are exacerbated in the modeling by natural climate variability and may be further exacerbated by climate change. Our modeling suggests that these growth dynamics combine to create long-term water scarcity in Egypt, regardless of the Ethiopian project. All else being equal, filling strategies that employ slow fill rates for the GERD (e.g., 8 to 13 years) may mitigate the risks in future scenarios for Egypt somewhat, but no policy or action regarding the GERD is likely to significantly alleviate the projected water scarcity in Egypt's Nile Basin. However, general beliefs among the Egyptian populace regarding the GERD as a major contributing factor for scarcities in Egypt could make Ethiopia a scapegoat for Egyptian grievances -- contributing to social unrest in Egypt and generating undesirable (and unnecessary) tension between these two countries. Such tension could threaten the constructive relationships between Egypt and Ethiopia that are vital to maintaining stability and security within and between their respective regional spheres of influence, Middle East and North Africa, and the Horn of Africa.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Light Water Reactor Sustainability Program: Reactor Safety Technologies Pathway Technical Program Plan

In the aftermath of the March 2011 multi-unit accident at the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant (Fukushima), the nuclear community has been reassessing certain safety assumptions about nuclear reactor plant design, operations and emergency actions, particularly with respect to extreme events that might occur and that are beyond each plant’s current design basis. Because of our significant domestic investment in nuclear reactor technology (99 operating reactors in the fleet of commercial LWRs with five under construction), the United States has been a major leader internationally in these activities. The U.S. nuclear industry is voluntarily pursuing a number of additional safety initiatives. The NRC continues to evaluate and, where deemed appropriate, establish new requirements for ensuring adequate protection of public health and safety in the occurrence of low probability events at nuclear plants; (e.g., mitigation strategies for beyond design basis events initiated by external events like seismic or flooding initiators). The DOE has also played a major role in the U.S. response to the Fukushima accident. Initially, DOE worked with the Japanese and the international community to help develop a more complete understanding of the Fukushima accident progression and its consequences, and to respond to various safety concerns emerging from uncertainties about the nature of and the effects from the accident. DOE R&D activities are focused on providing scientific and technical insights, data, analyses methods that ultimately support industry efforts to enhance safety. These activities are expected to further enhance the safety performance of currently operating U.S. nuclear power plants as well as better characterize the safety performance of future U.S. plants. In pursuing this area of R&D, DOE recognizes that the commercial nuclear industry is ultimately responsible for the safe operation of licensed nuclear facilities. As such, industry is considered the primary “end user” of the results from this DOE-sponsored work. The response to the Fukushima accident has been global, and there is a continuing multinational interest in collaborations to better quantify accident consequences and to incorporate lessons learned from the accident. DOE will continue to seek opportunities to facilitate collaborations that are of value to the U.S. industry, particularly where the collaboration provides access to vital data from the accident or otherwise supports or leverages other important R&D work. The purpose of the Reactor Safety Technology R&D is to improve understanding of beyond design basis events and reduce uncertainty in severe accident progression, phenomenology, and outcomes using existing analytical codes and information gleaned from severe accidents, in particular the Fukushima Daiichi events. This information will be used to aid in developing mitigating strategies and improving severe accident management guidelines for the current light water reactor fleet.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

Concrete mixture characterization. Cementitious barriers partnership

This report summarizes the characterization study performed on two concrete mixtures used for radioactive waste storage. Both mixtures were prepared with approximately 425 kg of binder. The testing protocol mostly focused on determining the transport properties of the mixtures; volume of permeable voids (porosity), diffusion coefficients, and water permeability were evaluated. Tests were performed after different curing durations. In order to obtain data on the statistical distribution of transport properties, the measurements after 2 years of curing were performed on 10+ samples. Overall, both mixtures exhibited very low tortuosities and permeabilities, a direct consequence of their low water-to-binder ratio and the use of supplementary cementitious materials. The data generated on 2-year old samples showed that porosity, tortuosity and permeability follow a normal distribution. Chloride ponding tests were also performed on test samples. They showed limited chloride ingress, in line with measured transport properties. These test results also showed that both materials react differently with chloride, a consequence of the differences in the binder chemical compositions.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Topics in Theoretical Physics

This award supported a broadly based research effort in theoretical particle physics, including research aimed at uncovering the laws of nature at short (subatomic) and long (cosmological) distances. These theoretical developments apply to experiments in laboratories such as CERN, the facility that operates the Large Hadron Collider outside Geneva, as well as to cosmological investigations done using telescopes and satellites. The results reported here apply to physics beyond the so-called Standard Model of particle physics; physics of high energy collisions such as those observed at the Large Hadron Collider; theoretical and mathematical tools and frameworks for describing the laws of nature at short distances; cosmology and astrophysics; and analytic and computational methods to solve theories of short distance physics. Some specific research accomplishments include + Theories of the electroweak interactions, the forces that give rise to many forms of radioactive decay; + Physics of the recently discovered Higgs boson. + Models and phenomenology of dark matter, the mysterious component of the universe, that has so far been detected only by its gravitational effects. + High energy particles in astrophysics and cosmology. + Algorithmic research and Computational methods for physics of and beyond the Standard Model. + Theory and applications of relativity and its possible limitations. + Topological effects in field theory and cosmology. + Conformally invariant systems and AdS/CFT. This award also supported significant training of students and postdoctoral fellows to lead the research effort in particle theory for the coming decades. These students and fellows worked closely with other members of the group as well as theoretical and experimental colleagues throughout the physics community. Many of the research projects funded by this grant arose in response to recently obtained experimental results in the areas of particle physics and cosmology. We describe a few of these below. Relativity is founded on a symmetry property of nature called "Lorentz Invariance". Like all symmetry properties, it is essential to determine precisely how symmetric nature actually is; that is, do the laws of nature fully respect the symmetry or is there room for tiny symmetry violating effects? An important consequence of Lorentz invariance is the existence of a universal limiting velocity for all physical particles. Light travels at this limiting velocity so it is frequently referred to as simply "the speed of light", but relativity requires that ALL particles travel more slowly than this speed. Once the Higgs particle was discovered in 2012 a natural question was whether or not this particle's speed was consistent with relativity. Although the speed of the Higgs particle is not measurable directly, Cohen has shown that, if the maximal speed of the Higgs particle was not precisely the same as the speed of light, then the Higgs would have some unusual properties. In some cases the Higgs would be unstable to some unusual decay modes; in other cases the interactions of the Higgs with other particles would change the properties of these other particles in ways that could be observed in so-called cosmic rays, very energetic particles (such as photons, protons and other atomic nuclei) coming from space. Once these particles hit the upper atmosphere they produce a "shower" of particles that can be seen by ground-based instruments. If the Higgs has a maximal speed that differs even a tiny bit from the speed of light these showers would look quite different from what is observed. In this way Cohen was able to establish that the Higgs travels with a maximal speed that cannot differ from the speed of light by more than one part in a thousand-trillion. This is by far the most precisely determined property of the Higgs particle. Cohen and Schmaltz reviewed evidence from the Large Hadron Collider (LHC), a particle physics experiment operating at the CERN laboratory near Geneva, for a new particle sometimes called a W'. This evidence included certain unexpected by-products in collisions of protons at very high energy. While the evidence was not significant enough to claim a discovery, it was sufficiently intriguing that many particle theorists worked to construct explanations for this signal. Cohen and Schmaltz were able to determine that such explanations are highly constrained by previous experiments involving collisions of very energetic particles. Nevertheless they were able to construct a theory that adequately explains the LHC data and remain consistent with prior experiments. Their explanation predicts the existence of yet another new particle, called a Z', with a mass slightly greater than that of the W'. This additional particle, if it exists, should be seen as more data is collected from the LHC. Amusingly, there is one collision by-product that has already been seen by the CMS experiment at the LHC that supports the existence of this new particle; however, it is not unlikely that this single event is a so-called "background" event, that is a somewhat atypical by-product of a conventional Standard Model process. This theory for the anomalous LHC data will either be confirmed or excluded with further data-taking at the LHC. The ratio of the number of electrons produced in bottom quark decays over the number of muons produced has been measured at the LHC. This ratio is interesting because it can be predicted very precisely from a basic property of the Standard Model: lepton universality. If lepton universality is correct, the ratio of electrons to muons is predicted to be equal to 1. The first measurements of this ratio find a value different from 1 with a statistical significance of about 3 standard deviations. Schmaltz and collaborator proposed a new extension of the Standard Model which can explain the new data. In addition, Schmaltz and collaborators proposed several new measurements of ratios of decay rates which can confirm or rule out the surprising results from the earlier LHC data. The most recent and precise measurements of the cosmic microwave background from the Planck satellite, from a combination of measurements of the dark matter distribution in the universe, and from a measurement of the expansion rate of the universe today show some disagreement when interpreted in terms of the so-called LambdaCDM model. Schmaltz and collaborators proposed an alternative model to LambdaCDM in which the usual cold dark matter is replaced by a new ``dark sector". This sector consists of a cold dark matter particle which interacts with a newly postulated dark radiation component of the universe. The dark radiation can help explain the discrepancy in measurements of the expansion rate, and the dark matter interactions subtly modify the clumping of dark matter at large scales, thus potentially explaining both kinds of tensions in the data. In two publications Schmaltz described the new model and then performed a precision comparison of the predictions of the model with all currently available cosmological data. The results favor the new model at the level of three standard deviations with current data. Quantum Field Theory (QFT) is the language we use to describe quantum systems which are consistent with Einstein’s theory of Special Relativity. In particular, the requirement of Einstein’s theory that signals not travel faster than the speed of light constrains the types of interactions which particles can engage in. One consequence of relativity is that these interactions cannot preserve particle number. The stronger the interactions, the more severe the particle number violation in a given Relativistic QFT. When particle number violation is strong, it becomes very difficult to adequately parameterize the quantum wave function (which characterizes the state of a quantum system). For example, though we can formulate the QFT which describes the strong force as a set of interactions between quark and gluon particles, we have no clear idea how to express the proton state in terms of these quarks and gluons. This is because the proton, though a bound state of quarks and gluons, is not a state of a fixed number of particles due to strong interactions. Yet, understanding the proton state is very important in order to theoretically predict the reaction rates observed at the LHC in Geneva, which is a proton-proton collider. Katz has formulated a new approach to QFT, which among other things offers a way to adequately approximate the quantum wave function of a bound state at strong coupling. The approximation scheme is related to the fact that any sensible QFT (including that of the strong interactions) is at short distances approximately self-similar upon rescaling of space and time. It turns out that keeping track of the response upon this rescaling is important in efficiently parameterizing the state. Katz and collaborators have used this observation to approximate the state of the proton in toy versions of the strong force. In the late 60s Sheldon Glashow, Abdus Salam and Steven Weinberg (1979 Nobel Prize awardees) proposed a theory unifying weak and electromagnetic interaction which assumed the existence of new particles, the W and Z bosons. The W and Z bosons were eventually detected in high-energy collision in a particle accelerator at CERN, and the recent discovery of the Higgs meson at the Large Hadron Collider (LHC), always at CERN, completed the picture. However, deep theoretical considerations indicate that the theory by Glashow, Weinberg and Salam, often referred to as "the standard model" cannot be the whole story: the existence of new particles and new interactions at yet higher energies is widely anticipated. The experiments at the LHC are looking for these, while theorists, like Brower, Rebbi and collaborators, are investigating models for these new interactions. Working in a large national collaboration with access to the most powerful DOE computers Brower, Rebbi and colleagues have been using calculational techniques, similar to those successfully employed for many years to investigate the interactions among quarks in nucleons, to study theories that can describe the expected "beyond the standard model" (BSM) interactions. Their results, which include also a model for dark matter, have been published in several refereed papers in prestigious journals. Various ideas in topologically interesting field theories predict hypothetical objects such as fractional charges and Majorana excitations. However, such fascinating objects have not been seen in particle physics. Nevertheless, these objects demonstrate possible phenomena that quantum field theory can support. Pi used condensed matter physics as a laboratory to study possible realizations and observable effects of these objects predicted by quantum field theory. In recent times there has developed considerable interest among condensed matter field theorists in precisely the same geometrical and topological structures, which were first discovered in particle physics field theories. From particle physicists' point of view, this is an interesting development, since condensed matter provides an arena in which one can concretely realize particle physics ideas. Moreover, particle physicists can learn new ideas from condensed matter physics. Higgs phenomenon is precisely an important particle physics realization of condensed matter ideas. In contrast to the small distance characterizing condensed matter systems, field theory also describes large distance physics characterizing cosmology. Pi worked on various geometrical effects in the standard theory of cosmology, viz general relativity.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Thermodynamic Properties of Aqueous Carbonate Species and Solid Carbonate Phases of Selected Trace Elements pertinent to Drinking Water Standards of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency

This report contains a series of tables summarizing the thermodynamic properties of aqueous carbonate complexes and solid carbonate phases of the following elements: arsenic (As), barium (Ba), cadmium (Cd), chromium (Cr), cobalt (Co), copper (Cu), iron (Fe), lead (Pb), manganese (Mn), mercury (Hg), nickel (Ni) thallium (Tl), uranium (U) and zinc (Zn). Most of these elements are potentially hazardous as defined by extant primary drinking water standards of the United States Environmental Protection Agency (EPA). The remainder are not considered hazardous, but are either listed by EPA under secondary standards, or because they can adversely affect drinking water quality. Additional tables are included giving the thermodynamic properties for carbonates of the alkali metal and alkali earth elements, sodium (Na), potassium (K), magnesium (Mg), calcium (Ca), and strontium (Sr), because of their value in developing correlative models to estimate the thermodynamic properties of carbonate minerals for which no such data currently exist. The purpose in creating the tables in this report is to provide future investigators with a convenient source for selecting and tracing the sources of thermodynamic data of the above listed elements for use in modeling their geochemical behavior in “underground sources of drinking water” (USDW). The incentive for doing so lies with a heightened concern over the potential consequences of the proposed capture and storage of carbon dioxide (CO2) generated by fossil fuel fired power plants in deep subsurface reservoirs. If CO2 were to leak from such reservoirs, it could migrate upward and contaminate USDWs with undesirable, but undetermined, consequences to water quality. The EPA, Office of Research and Development, through an Interagency Agreement with the U.S. Department of Energy at the Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, funded the preparation of this report.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Regulatory Technology Development Plan - Sodium Fast Reactor: Mechanistic Source Term – Trial Calculation

The potential release of radioactive material during a plant incident, referred to as the source term, is a vital design metric and will be a major focus of advanced reactor licensing. The U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission has stated an expectation for advanced reactor vendors to present a mechanistic assessment of the potential source term in their license applications. The mechanistic source term presents an opportunity for vendors to realistically assess the radiological consequences of an incident, and may allow reduced emergency planning zones and smaller plant sites. However, the development of a mechanistic source term for advanced reactors is not without challenges, as there are often numerous phenomena impacting the transportation and retention of radionuclides. This project sought to evaluate U.S. capabilities regarding the mechanistic assessment of radionuclide release from core damage incidents at metal fueled, pool-type sodium fast reactors (SFRs). The purpose of the analysis was to identify, and prioritize, any gaps regarding computational tools or data necessary for the modeling of radionuclide transport and retention phenomena. To accomplish this task, a parallel-path analysis approach was utilized. One path, led by Argonne and Sandia National Laboratories, sought to perform a mechanistic source term assessment using available codes, data, and models, with the goal to identify gaps in the current knowledge base. The second path, performed by an independent contractor, performed sensitivity analyses to determine the importance of particular radionuclides and transport phenomena in regards to offsite consequences. The results of the two pathways were combined to prioritize gaps in current capabilities.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

Development of Novel Porous Sorbents for Extraction of Uranium from Seawater

Climate disruption is one of the greatest crises the global community faces in the 21st century. Alarming increases in CO 2 , NO, SO 2 and particulate matter levels will have catastrophic consequences on the environment, food supplies, and human health if no action is taken to lessen their worldwide prevalence. Nuclear energy remains the only mature technology capable of continuous base-load power generation with ultralow carbon dioxide, nitric oxide, and sulfur dioxide emissions. Over the lifetime of the technology, nuclear energy outputs less than 1.5% the carbon dioxide emissions per gigawatt hour relative to coal—about as much as onshore wind power.1 However, in order for nuclear energy to be considered a viable option in the future, a stable supply of uranium must be secured. Current estimates suggest there is less than 100 years’ worth of uranium left in terrestrial ores (6.3 million tons) if current consumption levels remain unchanged.2 It is likely, however, that demand for nuclear fuel will rise as a direct consequence of the ratification of global climate accords. The oceans, containing approximately 4.5 billion tons of uranium (U) at a uniform concentration of ~3 ppb, represent a virtually limitless supply of this resource.3 Development of technologies to recover uranium from seawater would greatly improve the U resource availability, providing a U price ceiling for the current generation and sustaining the nuclear fuel supply for future generations. Several methods have been previously evaluated for uranium sequestration including solvent extraction, ion exchange, flotation, biomass collection, and adsorption; however, none have been found to be suitable for reasons including cost effectiveness, long term stability, and selectivity.4,5 While polymer beads and fibers have been functionalized with amidoxime functional groups to afford U adsorption capacities as high as 1.5 g U/kg,6 further discoveries are needed to make uranium extraction from seawater economically feasible.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Resilience Metrics for the Electric Power System: A Performance-Based Approach.

Grid resilience is a concept related to a power system's ability to continue operating and delivering power even in the event that low probability, high-consequence disruptions such as hurricanes, earthquakes, and cyber-attacks occur. Grid resilience objectives focus on managing and, ideally, minimizing potential consequences that occur as a result of these disruptions. Currently, no formal grid resilience definitions, metrics, or analysis methods have been universally accepted. This document describes an effort to develop and describe grid resilience metrics and analysis methods. The metrics and methods described herein extend upon the Resilience Analysis Process (RAP) developed by Watson et al. for the 2015 Quadrennial Energy Review. The extension allows for both outputs from system models and for historical data to serve as the basis for creating grid resilience metrics and informing grid resilience planning and response decision-making. This document describes the grid resilience metrics and analysis methods. Demonstration of the metrics and methods is shown through a set of illustrative use cases.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Failure Diameter of PBX 9502: Simulations with the SURFplus model

SURFplus is a reactive burn model for high explosives aimed at modelling shock initiation and propagation of detonation waves. It utilizes the SURF model for the fast hot-spot reaction plus a slow reaction for the energy released by carbon clustering. A feature of the SURF model is that there is a partially decoupling between burn rate parameters and detonation wave properties. Previously, parameters for PBX 9502 that control shock ini- tiation had been calibrated to Pop plot data (distance-of-run to detonation as a function of shock pressure initiating the detonation). Here burn rate parameters for the high pres- sure regime are adjusted to t the failure diameter and the limiting detonation speed just above the failure diameter. Simulated results are shown for an uncon ned rate stick when the 9502 diameter is slightly above and slightly below the failure diameter. Just above the failure diameter, in the rest frame of the detonation wave, the front is sonic at the PBX/air interface. As a consequence, the lead shock in the neighborhood of the interface is supported by the detonation pressure in the interior of the explosive rather than the reaction immediately behind the front. In the interior, the sonic point occurs near the end of the fast hot-spot reaction. Consequently, the slow carbon clustering reaction can not a ect the failure diameter. Below the failure diameter, the radial extent of the detonation front decreases starting from the PBX/air interface. That is, the failure starts at the PBX boundary and propagates inward to the axis of the rate stick.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗

Light Water Reactor Sustainability Program Reactor Safety Technologies Pathway Technical Program Plan

In the aftermath of the March 2011 multi-unit accident at the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant (Fukushima), the nuclear community has been reassessing certain safety assumptions about nuclear reactor plant design, operations and emergency actions, particularly with respect to extreme events that might occur and that are beyond each plant’s current design basis. Because of our significant domestic investment in nuclear reactor technology (99 operating reactors in the fleet of commercial LWRs with five under construction), the United States has been a major leader internationally in these activities. The U.S. nuclear industry is voluntarily pursuing a number of additional safety initiatives. The NRC continues to evaluate and, where deemed appropriate, establish new requirements for ensuring adequate protection of public health and safety in the occurrence of low probability events at nuclear plants; (e.g., mitigation strategies for beyond design basis events initiated by external events like seismic or flooding initiators). The DOE has also played a major role in the U.S. response to the Fukushima accident. Initially, DOE worked with the Japanese and the international community to help develop a more complete understanding of the Fukushima accident progression and its consequences, and to respond to various safety concerns emerging from uncertainties about the nature of and the effects from the accident. DOE R&D activities are focused on providing scientific and technical insights, data, analyses methods that ultimately support industry efforts to enhance safety. These activities are expected to further enhance the safety performance of currently operating U.S. nuclear power plants as well as better characterize the safety performance of future U.S. plants. In pursuing this area of R&D, DOE recognizes that the commercial nuclear industry is ultimately responsible for the safe operation of licensed nuclear facilities. As such, industry is considered the primary “end user” of the results from this DOE-sponsored work. The response to the Fukushima accident has been global, and there is a continuing multinational interest in collaborations to better quantify accident consequences and to incorporate lessons learned from the accident. DOE will continue to seek opportunities to facilitate collaborations that are of value to the U.S. industry, particularly where the collaboration provides access to vital data from the accident or otherwise supports or leverages other important R&D work. The purpose of the Reactor Safety Technology R&D is to improve understanding of beyond design basis events and reduce uncertainty in severe accident progression, phenomenology, and outcomes using existing analytical codes and information gleaned from severe accidents, in particular the Fukushima Daiichi events. This information will be used to aid in developing mitigating strategies and improving severe accident management guidelines for the current light water reactor fleet.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Go Pink! The Effect of Secondary Quanta on Detective Quantum Efficiency

Photons are never directly observable. Consequently, we often use photoelectric detectors (eg CCDs) to record associated photoelectrons statistically. Nonetheless, it is an implicit goal of radiographic detector designers to achieve the maximum possible detector efficiency1. In part the desire for ever higher efficiency has been due to the fact that detectors are far less expensive than associated accelerator facilities (e.g. DARHT and PHERMEX2). In addition, higher efficiency detectors often have better spatial resolution. Consequently, the optimization of the detector, not the accelerator, is the system component with the highest leverage per dollar. In recent years, imaging scientists have adopted the so-called Detective Quantum Efficiency, or DQE as a summary measure of detector performance. Unfortunately, owing to the complex nature of the trade-space associated with detector components, and the natural desire for simplicity and low(er) cost, there has been a recent trend in Los Alamos to focus only on the zerofrequency efficiency, or DQE(0), when designing such systems. This narrow focus leads to system designs that neglect or even ignore the importance of high-spatial-frequency image components. In this paper we demonstrate the significant negative impact of these design choices on the Noise Power Spectrum1 (NPS) and recommend a more holistic approach to detector design. Here we present a statistical argument which indicates that a very large number (>20) of secondary quanta (typically visible light and/or recorded photo-electrons) are needed to take maximum advantage of the primary quanta (typically x-rays or protons) which are available to form an image. Since secondary particles come in bursts, they are not independent. In short, we want to maximize the pink nature of detector noise at DARHT.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Fragment Impact Toolkit (FIT)

The Fragment Impact Toolkit (FIT) is a software package used for probabilistic consequence evaluation of fragmenting sources. The typical use case for FIT is to simulate an exploding shell and evaluate the consequence on nearby objects. FIT is written in the programming language Python and is designed as a collection of interacting software modules. Each module has a function that interacts with the other modules to produce desired results.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Cyber Deterrence and Stability

Throughout the 20th and early 21st centuries, deterrence and arms control have been cornerstones of strategic stability between the superpowers. However, the weaponization of the cyber realm by State actors and the multipolar nature of cyber conflict now undermines that stability. Strategic stability is the state in which nations believe that if they act aggressively to undermine U.S. national interests and the post-World War II liberal democratic order, the consequences will outweigh the benefits. The sense of lawlessness and lack of consequences in the cyber realm embolden States to be more aggressive in taking actions that undermine stability. Accordingly, this paper examines 1) the role of deterrence and arms control in securing cyber stability, and 2) the limitations and challenges associated with these traditional national security paradigms as applied to this emerging threat domain. This paper demonstrates that many 20th-century deterrence and arms control concepts are not particularly applicable in the cyber realm. However, they are not entirely irrelevant. The United States can distill lessons learned from this rich deterrence and arms control experience to develop and deploy a strategy to advance cyber stability.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗