Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “confidence”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 1,675 records · Page 93
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2022

Dark energy survey year 3 results: Cosmology with peaks using an emulator approach

ABSTRACT We constrain the matter density Ωm and the amplitude of density fluctuations σ8 within the ΛCDM cosmological model with shear peak statistics and angular convergence power spectra using mass maps constructed from the first three years of data of the Dark Energy Survey (DES Y3). We use tomographic shear peak statistics, including cross-peaks: peak counts calculated on maps created by taking a harmonic space product of the convergence of two tomographic redshift bins. Our analysis follows a forward-modelling scheme to create a likelihood of these statistics using N-body simulations, using a Gaussian process emulator. We take into account the uncertainty from the remaining, largely unconstrained ΛCDM parameters (Ωb, ns, and h). We include the following lensing systematics: multiplicative shear bias, photometric redshift uncertainty, and galaxy intrinsic alignment. Stringent scale cuts are applied to avoid biases from unmodelled baryonic physics. We find that the additional non-Gaussian information leads to a tightening of the constraints on the structure growth parameter yielding $S_8~\equiv ~\sigma _8\sqrt{\Omega _{\mathrm{m}}/0.3}~=~0.797_{-0.013}^{+0.015}$ (68 per cent confidence limits), with a precision of 1.8 per cent, an improvement of 38 per cent compared to the angular power spectra only case. The results obtained with the angular power spectra and peak counts are found to be in agreement with each other and no significant difference in S8 is recorded. We find a mild tension of $1.5 \, \sigma$ between our study and the results from Planck 2018, with our analysis yielding a lower S8. Furthermore, we observe that the combination of angular power spectra and tomographic peak counts breaks the degeneracy between galaxy intrinsic alignment AIA and S8, improving cosmological constraints. We run a suite of tests concluding that our results are robust and consistent with the results from other studies using DES Y3 data.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Estimating the local dark matter density in a non-axisymmetric wobbling disc

The density of dark matter near the Sun, ρDM, ⊙, is important for experiments hunting for dark matter particles in the laboratory, and for constraining the local shape of the Milky Way’s dark matter halo. Estimates to date have typically assumed that the Milky Way’s stellar disc is axisymmetric and in a steady-state. Yet the Milky Way disc is neither, exhibiting prominent spiral arms and a bar, and vertical and radial oscillations. Here, we assess the impact of these assumptions on determinations of ρDM, ⊙ by applying a free-form, steady-state, Jeans method to two different N-body simulations of Milky Way-like galaxies. In one, the galaxy has experienced an ancient major merger, similar to the hypothesized Gaia–Sausage–Enceladus; in the other, the galaxy is perturbed more recently by the repeated passage and slow merger of a Sagittarius-like dwarf galaxy. We assess the impact of each of the terms in the Jeans–Poisson equations on our ability to correctly extract ρDM, ⊙ from the simulated data. We find that common approximations employed in the literature – axisymmetry and a locally flat rotation curve – can lead to significant systematic errors of up to a factor ~1.5 in the recovered surface mass density ~2 kpc above the disc plane, implying a fractional error on ρDM, ⊙ of the order of unity. However, once we add in the tilt term and the rotation curve term in our models, we obtain an unbiased estimate of ρDM, ⊙, consistent with the true value within our 95 percent confidence intervals for realistic 20 percent uncertainties on the baryonic surface density of the disc. Other terms – the axial tilt, 2nd Poisson and time-dependent terms – contribute less than 10 percent to ρDM, ⊙ (given current data) and can be safely neglected for now. In the future, as more data become available, these terms will need to be included in the analysis.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Hydrogen reionization ends by z = 5.3: Lyman-α optical depth measured by the XQR-30 sample

ABSTRACT The presence of excess scatter in the Ly-α forest at z ∼ 5.5, together with the existence of sporadic extended opaque Gunn-Peterson troughs, has started to provide robust evidence for a late end of hydrogen reionization. However, low data quality and systematic uncertainties complicate the use of Ly-α transmission as a precision probe of reionization’s end stages. In this paper, we assemble a sample of 67 quasar sightlines at z > 5.5 with high signal-to-noise ratios of >10 per ≤15 km s−1 spectral pixel, relying largely on the new XQR-30 quasar sample. XQR-30 is a large program on VLT/X-Shooter which obtained deep (SNR > 20 per pixel) spectra of 30 quasars at z > 5.7. We carefully account for systematics in continuum reconstruction, instrumentation, and contamination by damped Ly-α systems. We present improved measurements of the mean Ly-α transmission over 4.9 < z < 6.1. Using all known systematics in a forward modelling analysis, we find excellent agreement between the observed Ly-α transmission distributions and the homogeneous-UVB simulations Sherwood and Nyx up to z ≤ 5.2 (<1σ), and mild tension (∼2.5σ) at z = 5.3. Homogeneous UVB models are ruled out by excess Ly-α transmission scatter at z ≥ 5.4 with high confidence (>3.5σ). Our results indicate that reionization-related fluctuations, whether in the UVB, residual neutral hydrogen fraction, and/or IGM temperature, persist in the intergalactic medium until at least z = 5.3 (t = 1.1 Gyr after the big bang). This is further evidence for a late end to reionization.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Probing for the host galaxies of the fast X-ray transients XRT 000519 and XRT 110103

Over the past few years, ~30 extragalactic fast X-ray transients (FXRTs) have been discovered, mainly in Chandra and XMM-Newton data. Their nature remains unclear, with proposed origins, including a double neutron star merger, a tidal disruption event involving an intermediate-mass black hole and a white dwarf, or a supernova shock breakout. A decisive differentiation between these three promising mechanisms for their origin requires an understanding of the FXRT energetics, environments, and/or host properties. We present optical observations obtained with the Very Large Telescope for the FXRTs XRT 000519 and XRT 110103 and Gran Telescopio Canarias observations for XRT 000519 designed to search for host galaxies of these FXRTs. In the g s , r s , and R-band images, we detect an extended source on the north-west side of the $\sim \, 1^{\prime \prime }$ (68 per cent confidence) error circle of the X-ray position of XRT 000519 with a Kron magnitude of g s = 26.29 ± 0.09 (AB magnitude). We discuss the XRT 000519 association with the probable host candidate for various possible distances, and we conclude that if XRT 000519 is associated with the host candidate a supernova shock breakout scenario is likely excluded. No host galaxy is found near XRT 110103 down to a limiting magnitude of R > 25.8.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Constraining low redshift [C II ] emission by cross-correlating FIRAS and BOSS data

ABSTRACT We perform a tomographic cross-correlation analysis of archival FIRAS data and the BOSS galaxy redshift survey to constrain the amplitude of [C II] 2P3/2 → 2P1/2 fine structure emission. Our analysis employs spherical harmonic tomography (SHT), which is based on the angular cross-power spectrum between FIRAS maps and BOSS galaxy over-densities at each pair of redshift bins, over a redshift range of 0.24 < z < 0.69. We develop the SHT approach for intensity mapping, where it has several advantages over existing power spectral estimators. Our analysis constrains the product of the [C II] bias and [C II] specific intensity, $b_{\rm [C \small{\rm II}]}I_{\rm [C \small{\rm II}]}$, to be <0.31 MJy/sr at z ≈ 0.35 and <0.28 MJy/sr at z ≈ 0.57 at $95{{\ \rm per\ cent}}$ confidence. These limits are consistent with most current models of the [C II] signal, as well as with higher-redshift [C II] cross-power spectrum measurements from the Planck satellite and BOSS quasars. We also show that our analysis, if applied to data from a more sensitive instrument such as the proposed PIXIE satellite, can detect pessimistic [C II] models at high significance.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Redshifts of radio sources in the Million Quasars Catalogue from machine learning

ABSTRACT With the aim of using machine learning techniques to obtain photometric redshifts based upon a source’s radio spectrum alone, we have extracted the radio sources from the Million Quasars Catalogue. Of these, 44 119 have a spectroscopic redshift, required for model validation, and for which photometry could be obtained. Using the radio spectral properties as features, we fail to find a model which can reliably predict the redshifts, although there is the suggestion that the models improve with the size of the training sample. Using the near-infrared–optical–ultraviolet bands magnitudes, we obtain reliable predictions based on the 12 503 radio sources which have all of the required photometry. From the 80:20 training–validation split, this gives only 2501 validation sources, although training the sample upon our previous SDSS model gives comparable results for all 12 503 sources. This makes us confident that SkyMapper, which will survey southern sky in the u, v, g, r, i, z bands, can be used to predict the redshifts of radio sources detected with the Square Kilometre Array. By using machine learning to impute the magnitudes missing from much of the sample, we can predict the redshifts for 32 698 sources, an increase from 28 to 74 per cent of the sample, at the cost of increasing the outlier fraction by a factor of 1.4. While the ‘optical’ band data prove successful, at this stage we cannot rule out the possibility of a radio photometric redshift, given sufficient data which may be necessary to overcome the relatively featureless radio spectra.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Stellar kinematics of dwarf galaxies from multi-epoch spectroscopy: application to Triangulum II

ABSTRACT We present new MMT/Hectochelle spectroscopic measurements for 257 stars observed along the line of sight to the ultrafaint dwarf galaxy Triangulum II (Tri II). Combining results from previous Keck/DEIMOS spectroscopy, we obtain a sample that includes 16 likely members of Tri II, with up to 10 independent redshift measurements per star. To this multi-epoch kinematic data set, we apply methodology that we develop in order to infer binary orbital parameters from sparsely sampled radial velocity curves with as few as two epochs. For a previously identified (spatially unresolved) binary system in Tri II, we infer an orbital solution with period $296.0_{-3.3}^{+3.8} \rm ~ d$, semimajor axis $1.12^{+0.41}_{-0.24}\rm ~au$, and systemic velocity $-380.0 \pm 1.7 \rm ~km ~s^{-1}$ that we then use in the analysis of Tri II’s internal kinematics. Despite this improvement in the modelling of binary star systems, the current data remain insufficient to resolve the velocity dispersion of Tri II. We instead find a 95 per cent confidence upper limit of $\sigma _{v} \lesssim 3.4 \rm ~km~s^{-1}$.

Buttry, Rachel (ORCID:0000000155017609)↗
DOE OSTI2022

iMaNGA: mock MaNGA galaxies based on IllustrisTNG and MaStar SSPs – I. Construction and analysis of the mock data cubes

ABSTRACT Galaxy formation and evolution simulations are essential tools to probe poorly known astrophysics processes, but particular care is needed to compare simulations with galaxy observations, as observed data need to be modelled as well. We present a method to generate mock galaxies from the hydro-dynamical IllustrisTNG simulations which are suited to compare with integral field spectroscopic observation of galaxies from the SDSS-IV/Mapping Nearby Galaxies at Apache Point Observatory (MaNGA) survey. First, we include the same instrumental effects and procedures as adopted in the acquisition and analysis of real data. Furthermore, we generate the galaxy spectra from the simulations using new stellar population models based on the MaNGA stellar library (MaStar). In this way, our mock data cubes have the same spatial sampling, cover the same wavelength range (3600–10 300 Å), and share the same spectral resolution (R ≈ 1800) and flux calibration of real MaNGA galaxy spectra. In this first paper, we demonstrate the method over an early- and a late-type simulated galaxy from TNG50. We analyse the correspondent mock MaNGA-like data cubes with the same full spectral fitting code, firefly, which was used for the observed spectra. We find that the intrinsic and recovered age and metallicity gradients are consistent within 1σ, with residuals over all tassels consistent with 0 at the 68 ${{\ \rm per\ cent}}$ confidence level. We also perform the challenging test at comparing intrinsic and recovered star formation histories, finding a close resemblance between input and output. In follow-up papers, we will present a full simulated MaNGA-like catalogue (≈10 000 galaxies) with a comprehensive comparison of TNG50 simulations to MaNGA observational results.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2022

The dark energy survey 5-yr photometrically identified type Ia supernovae

ABSTRACT As part of the cosmology analysis using Type Ia Supernovae (SN Ia) in the Dark Energy Survey (DES), we present photometrically identified SN Ia samples using multiband light curves and host galaxy redshifts. For this analysis, we use the photometric classification framework SuperNNovatrained on realistic DES-like simulations. For reliable classification, we process the DES SN programme (DES-SN) data and introduce improvements to the classifier architecture, obtaining classification accuracies of more than 98 per cent on simulations. This is the first SN classification to make use of ensemble methods, resulting in more robust samples. Using photometry, host galaxy redshifts, and a classification probability requirement, we identify 1863 SNe Ia from which we select 1484 cosmology-grade SNe Ia spanning the redshift range of 0.07 < z < 1.14. We find good agreement between the light-curve properties of the photometrically selected sample and simulations. Additionally, we create similar SN Ia samples using two types of Bayesian Neural Network classifiers that provide uncertainties on the classification probabilities. We test the feasibility of using these uncertainties as indicators for out-of-distribution candidates and model confidence. Finally, we discuss the implications of photometric samples and classification methods for future surveys such as Vera C. Rubin Observatory Legacy Survey of Space and Time.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
DOE OSTI2022

The DESI N -body simulation project – I. Testing the robustness of simulations for the DESI dark time survey

ABSTRACT Analysis of large galaxy surveys requires confidence in the robustness of numerical simulation methods. The simulations are used to construct mock galaxy catalogues to validate data analysis pipelines and identify potential systematics. We compare three N-body simulation codes, abacus, gadget-2, and swift, to investigate the regimes in which their results agree. We run N-body simulations at three different mass resolutions, 6.25 × 108, 2.11 × 109, and 5.00 × 109 h−1 M⊙, matching phases to reduce the noise within the comparisons. We find systematic errors in the halo clustering between different codes are smaller than the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI) statistical error for $s\ \gt\ 20\ h^{-1}$ Mpc in the correlation function in redshift space. Through the resolution comparison we find that simulations run with a mass resolution of 2.1 × 109 h−1 M⊙ are sufficiently converged for systematic effects in the halo clustering to be smaller than the DESI statistical error at scales larger than $20\ h^{-1}$ Mpc. These findings show that the simulations are robust for extracting cosmological information from large scales which is the key goal of the DESI survey. Comparing matter power spectra, we find the codes agree to within 1 per cent for k ≤ 10 h Mpc−1. We also run a comparison of three initial condition generation codes and find good agreement. In addition, we include a quasi-N-body code, FastPM, since we plan use it for certain DESI analyses. The impact of the halo definition and galaxy–halo relation will be presented in a follow-up study.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2022

X-ray morphology of cluster-mass haloes in self-interacting dark matter

ABSTRACT We perform cosmological zoom-in simulations of 19 relaxed cluster-mass haloes with the inclusion of adiabatic gas in the cold dark matter (CDM) and self-interacting dark matter (SIDM) models. These clusters are selected as dynamically relaxed clusters from a parent simulation with $M_{\rm 200} \simeq (1\!-\!3)\times 10^{15}{\, \rm M_\odot }$. Both the dark matter and the intracluster gas distributions in SIDM appear more spherical than their CDM counterparts. Mock X-ray images are generated based on the simulations and are compared to the real X-ray images of 84 relaxed clusters selected from the Chandra and ROSAT archives. We perform ellipse fitting for the isophotes of mock and real X-ray images and obtain the ellipticities at cluster-centric radii of $r\simeq 0.1\!-\!0.2R_{\rm 200}$. The X-ray isophotes in SIDM models with increasing cross-sections are rounder than their CDM counterparts, which manifests as a systematic shift in the distribution function of ellipticities. Unexpectedly, the X-ray morphology of the observed non-cool-core clusters agrees better with SIDM models with cross-section $(\sigma /m)= 0.5\!-\!1\, {\rm cm}^2\, {\rm g}^{-1}$ than CDM and SIDM with $(\sigma /m)=0.1\, {\rm cm}^2\, {\rm g}^{-1}$. Our statistical analysis indicates that the latter two models are disfavoured at the $68{{\ \rm per\ cent}}$ confidence level (as conservative estimates). This conclusion is not altered by shifting the radial range of measurements or applying a temperature selection criterion. However, the primary uncertainty originates from the lack of baryonic physics in the adiabatic model, such as cooling, star formation and feedback effects, which still have the potential to reconcile CDM simulations with observations.

Shen, Xuejian (ORCID:000000026196823X)↗
DOE OSTI2022

Dust and the intrinsic spectral index of quasar variations: hints of finite stress at the innermost stable circular orbit

ABSTRACT We present a study of 9 242 spectroscopically confirmed quasars with multiepoch ugriz photometry from the SDSS Southern Survey. By fitting a separable linear model to each quasar’s spectral variations, we decompose their five-band spectral energy distributions into variable (disc) and non-variable (host galaxy) components. In modelling the disc spectra, we include attenuation by dust on the line of sight through the host galaxy to its nucleus. We consider five commonly used attenuation laws, and find that the best description is by dust similar to that of the Small Magellanic Cloud, inferring a lack of carbonaceous grains from the relatively weak 2175-Å absorption feature. We go on to construct a composite spectrum for the quasar variations spanning 700–8000 Å. By varying the assumed power-law Lν ∝ να spectral slope, we find a best-fitting value α = 0.71 ± 0.02, excluding at high confidence the canonical Lν ∝ ν1/3 prediction for a steady-state accretion disc with a T ∝ r−3/4 temperature profile. The bluer spectral index of the observed quasar variations instead supports the model of Agol & Krolik, and Mummery & Balbus, in which a steeper temperature profile, T ∝ r−7/8, develops as a result of finite magnetically induced stress at the innermost stable circular orbit extracting energy and angular momentum from the black hole spin.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2023

The miniJPAS survey quasar selection – II. Machine learning classification with photometric measurements and uncertainties

Astrophysical surveys rely heavily on the classification of sources as stars, galaxies, or quasars from multiband photometry. Surveys in narrow-band filters allow for greater discriminatory power, but the variety of different types and redshifts of the objects present a challenge to standard template-based methods. In this work, which is part of a larger effort that aims at building a catalogue of quasars from the miniJPAS survey, we present a machine learning-based method that employs convolutional neural networks (CNNs) to classify point-like sources including the information in the measurement errors. We validate our methods using data from the miniJPAS survey, a proof-of-concept project of the Javalambre Physics of the Accelerating Universe Astrophysical Survey (J-PAS) collaboration covering ∼1 deg 2 of the northern sky using the 56 narrow-band filters of the J-PAS survey. Due to the scarcity of real data, we trained our algorithms using mocks that were purpose-built to reproduce the distributions of different types of objects that we expect to find in the miniJPAS survey, as well as the properties of the real observations in terms of signal and noise. We compare the performance of the CNNs with other well-established machine learning classification methods based on decision trees, finding that the CNNs improve the classification when the measurement errors are provided as inputs. The predicted distribution of objects in miniJPAS is consistent with the putative luminosity functions of stars, quasars, and unresolved galaxies. Our results are a proof of concept for the idea that the J-PAS survey will be able to detect unprecedented numbers of quasars with high confidence.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Measuring the mass of the black widow PSR J1555-2908

ABSTRACT Accurate measurements of the masses of neutron stars are necessary to test binary evolution models, and to constrain the neutron star equation of state. In pulsar binaries with no measurable post-Keplerian parameters, this requires an accurate estimate of the binary system’s inclination and the radial velocity of the companion star by other means than pulsar timing. In this paper, we present the results of a new method for measuring this radial velocity using the binary synthesis code Icarus. This method relies on constructing a model spectrum of a tidally distorted, irradiated star as viewed for a given binary configuration. This method is applied to optical spectra of the newly discovered black widow PSR J1555–2908. By modeling the optical spectroscopy alongside optical photometry, we find that the radial velocity of the companion star is 397 ± 4 km s−1 (errors quoted at 95 per cent confidence interval), as well as a binary inclination of >75°. Combined with γ-ray pulsation timing information, this gives a neutron star mass of 1.67$^{+0.15}_{-0.09}$ M⊙ and a companion mass of 0.060$^{+0.005}_{-0.003}$ M⊙, placing PSR J1555–2908 at the observed upper limit of what is considered a black widow system.

Kennedy, M. R.↗
DOE OSTI2022

The primordial matter power spectrum on sub-galactic scales

The primordial matter power spectrum quantifies fluctuations in the distribution of dark matter immediately following inflation. Over cosmic time, overdense regions of the primordial density field grow and collapse into dark matter haloes, whose abundance and density profiles retain memory of the initial conditions. By analysing the image magnifications in 11 strongly lensed and quadruply imaged quasars, we infer the abundance and concentrations of low-mass haloes, and cast the measurement in terms of the amplitude of the primordial matter power spectrum. We anchor the power spectrum on large scales, isolating the effect of small-scale deviations from the Lambda cold dark matter (ΛCDM) prediction. Assuming an analytic model for the power spectrum and accounting for several sources of potential systematic uncertainty, including three different models for the halo mass function, we obtain correlated inferences of $\log _{10}\left(P / P_{\Lambda \rm {CDM}}\right)$, the power spectrum amplitude relative to the predictions of the concordance cosmological model, of $0.0_{-0.4}^{+0.5}$, $0.1_{-0.6}^{+0.7}$, and $0.2_{-0.9}^{+1.0}$ at k = 10, 25, and 50 $\rm {Mpc^{-1}}$ at $68 {{\ \rm per\ cent}}$ confidence, consistent with CDM and single-field slow-roll inflation.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Primordial non-Gaussianity from the completed SDSS-IV extended Baryon Oscillation Spectroscopic Survey II: measurements in Fourier space with optimal weights

ABSTRACT We present measurements of the local primordial non-Gaussianity parameter $f_{\mathrm{NL}}^\mathrm{local} $from the clustering of 343 708 quasars with redshifts 0.8 < z < 2.2 distributed over 4808 deg2 from the final data release (DR16) of the extended Baryon Acoustic Oscillation Spectroscopic Survey (eBOSS), the largest volume spectroscopic survey up to date. Our analysis is performed in Fourier space, using the power spectrum monopole at very large scales to constrain the scale-dependent halo bias. We demonstrate the robustness of our analysis pipeline with EZ-mock catalogues that simulate the eBOSS DR16 target selection. We carefully assess the impact of systematics on our measurement, exploiting a novel neural network scheme for cleaning the DR16 sample as well as test multiple contamination removal methods. We estimate the bias due to the overcorrection of the systematic removal to be sub-dominant compared to the statistical uncertainty. We find fNL = −12 ± 21 (68 per cent confidence) for the main clustering sample including quasars with redshifts between 0.8 and 2.2, after applying redshift weighting techniques, designed for non-Gaussianity measurement from large scales structure, to optimize our analysis, which improve our results by 37 per cent.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2023

New constraints on cosmological modified gravity theories from anisotropic three-point correlation functions of BOSS DR12 galaxies

Here we report a new test of modified gravity theories using the large-scale structure of the Universe. This paper is the first attempt to (1) apply a joint analysis of the anisotropic components of galaxy two- and three-point correlation functions (2 and 3PCFs) to actual galaxy data and (2) constrain the non-linear effects of degenerate higher-order scalar-tensor (DHOST) theories on cosmological scales. Applying this analysis to the Baryon Oscillation Spectroscopic Survey (BOSS) data release 12, we obtain the lower bounds of –1.655 < ξ t and –0.504 < ξ s at the $95{{\ \rm per\ cent}}$ confidence level on the parameters characterizing the time evolution of the tidal and shift terms of the second-order velocity field. These constraints are consistent with GR predictions of ξ t = 15/1144 and ξs = 0. Moreover, they represent a 35-fold and 20-fold improvement, respectively, over the joint analysis with only the isotropic 3PCF. We ensure the validity of our results by investigating various quantities, including theoretical models of the 3PCF, window function corrections, cumulative S/N, Fisher matrices, and statistical scattering effects of mock simulation data. We also find statistically significant discrepancies between the BOSS data and the Patchy mocks for the 3PCF measurement. Finally, we package all of our 3PCF analysis codes under the name hitomi and make them publicly available so that readers can reproduce all the results of this paper and easily apply them to ongoing future galaxy surveys.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2023

An empirical approach to model selection: weak lensing and intrinsic alignments

ABSTRACT In cosmology, we routinely choose between models to describe our data, and can incur biases due to insufficient models or lose constraining power with overly complex models. In this paper, we propose an empirical approach to model selection that explicitly balances parameter bias against model complexity. Our method uses synthetic data to calibrate the relation between bias and the χ2 difference between models. This allows us to interpret χ2 values obtained from real data (even if catalogues are blinded) and choose a model accordingly. We apply our method to the problem of intrinsic alignments – one of the most significant weak lensing systematics, and a major contributor to the error budget in modern lensing surveys. Specifically, we consider the example of the Dark Energy Survey Year 3 (DES Y3), and compare the commonly used non-linear alignment (NLA) and tidal alignment and tidal torque (TATT) models. The models are calibrated against bias in the Ωm–S8 plane. Once noise is accounted for, we find that it is possible to set a threshold Δχ2 that guarantees an analysis using NLA is unbiased at some specified level Nσ and confidence level. By contrast, we find that theoretically defined thresholds (based on, e.g. p-values for χ2) tend to be overly optimistic, and do not reliably rule out cosmological biases up to ∼1–2σ. Considering the real DES Y3 cosmic shear results, based on the reported difference in χ2 from NLA and TATT analyses, we find a roughly $30{{\ \rm per\ cent}}$ chance that were NLA to be the fiducial model, the results would be biased (in the Ωm–S8 plane) by more than 0.3σ. More broadly, the method we propose here is simple and general, and requires a relatively low level of resources. We foresee applications to future analyses as a model selection tool in many contexts.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗