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Optimal pattern distributions in Rete-based production systems

Since its introduction into the AI community in the early 1980's, the Rete algorithm has been widely used. This algorithm has formed the basis for many AI tools, including NASA's CLIPS. One drawback of Rete-based implementation, however, is that the network structures used internally by the Rete algorithm make it sensitive to the arrangement of individual patterns within rules. Thus while rules may be more or less arbitrarily placed within source files, the distribution of individual patterns within these rules can significantly affect the overall system performance. Some heuristics have been proposed to optimize pattern placement, however, these suggestions can be conflicting. This paper describes a systematic effort to measure the effect of pattern distribution on production system performance. An overview of the Rete algorithm is presented to provide context. A description of the methods used to explore the pattern ordering problem area are presented, using internal production system metrics such as the number of partial matches, and coarse-grained operating system data such as memory usage and time. The results of this study should be of interest to those developing and optimizing software for Rete-based production systems.

Scott, Stephen L.↗

On spurious behavior of CFD simulations

Spurious behavior in underresolved grids and/or semi-implicit temporal discretizations for four computational fluid dynamics (CFD) simulations are studied. The numerical simulations consist of (a) a 1-D chemically relaxed nonequilibrium model, (b) the direct numerical simulation (DNS) of 2-D incompressible flow over a backward facing step, (c) a loosely-coupled approach for a 2-D fluid-structure interaction, and (d) a 3-D compressible unsteady flow simulation of vortex breakdown in delta wings. Using knowledge from dynamical systems theory, various types of spurious behaviors that are numerical artifacts were systematically identified. These studies revealed the various possible dangers of misinterpreting numerical simulation of realistic complex flows that are constrained by the available computing power. In large scale computations underresolved grids, semi-implicit procedures, loosely-coupled implicit procedures, and insufficiently long time integration in DNS are most often unavoidable. Consequently, care must be taken in both computation and in interpretation of the numerical data. The results presented confirm the important role that dynamical systems theory can play in the understanding of the nonlinear behavior of numerical algorithms and in aiding the identification of the sources of numerical uncertainties in CFD.

Numerical Solution↗

An Improved Retrieval of Tropospheric Nitrogen Dioxide from GOME

We present a retrieval of tropospheric nitrogen dioxide (NO2) columns from the Global Ozone Monitoring Experiment (GOME) satellite instrument that improves in several ways over previous retrievals, especially in the accounting of Rayleigh and cloud scattering. Slant columns, which are directly fitted without low-pass filtering or spectral smoothing, are corrected for an artificial offset likely induced by spectral structure on the diffuser plate of the GOME instrument. The stratospheric column is determined from NO2 columns over the remote Pacific Ocean to minimize contamination from tropospheric NO2. The air mass factor (AMF) used to convert slant columns to vertical columns is calculated from the integral of the relative vertical NO2 distribution from a global 3-D model of tropospheric chemistry driven by assimilated meteorological data (Global Earth Observing System (GEOS)-CHEM), weighted by altitude dependent scattering weights computed with a radiative transfer model (Linearized Discrete Ordinate Radiative Transfer), using local surface albedos determined from GOME observations at NO2 wavelengths. The AMF calculation accounts for cloud scattering using cloud fraction, cloud top pressure, and cloud optical thickness from a cloud retrieval algorithm (GOME Cloud Retrieval Algorithm). Over continental regions with high surface emissions, clouds decrease the AMT by 20- 30% relative to clear sky. GOME is almost twice as sensitive to tropospheric NO2 columns over ocean than over land. Comparison of the retrieved tropospheric NO2 columns for July 1996 with GEOS-CHEM values tests both the retrieval and the nitrogen oxide radical (NOx) emissions inventories used in GEOS-CHEM. Retrieved tropospheric NO2 columns over the United States, where NOx emissions are particularly well known, are within 18% of GEOS-CHEM columns and are strongly spatially correlated (r = 0.78, n = 288, p less than 0.005). Retrieved columns show more NO2 than GEOS-CHEM columns over the Transvaal region of South Africa and industrial regions of the northeast United States and Europe. They are lower over Houston, India, eastern Asia, and the biomass burning region of central Africa, possibly because of biases from absorbing aerosols.

Martin, Randall V.↗

3D Radiative Transfer Effects in Multi-Angle/Multi-Spectral Radio-Polarimetric Signals from a Mixture of Clouds and Aerosols Viewed by a Non-Imaging Sensor

When observing a spatially complex mix of aerosols and clouds in a single relatively large field-of-view, nature entangles their signals non-linearly through polarized radiation transport processes that unfold in the 3D position and direction spaces. In contrast, any practical forward model in a retrieval algorithm will use only 1D vector radiative transfer (vRT) in a linear mixing technique. We assess the difference between the observed and predicted signals using synthetic data from a high-fidelity 3D vRT model with clouds generated using a Large Eddy Simulation model and an aerosol climatology. We find that this difference is signal--not noise--for the Aerosol Polarimetry Sensor (APS), an instrument developed by NASA. Moreover, the worst case scenario is also the most interesting case, namely, when the aerosol burden is large, hence hase the most impact on the cloud microphysics and dynamics. Based on our findings, we formulate a mitigation strategy for these unresolved cloud adjacency effects assuming that some spatial information is available about the structure of the clouds at higher resolution from "context" cameras, as was planned for NASA's ill-fated Glory mission that was to carry the APS but failed to reach orbit. Application to POLDER (POLarization and Directionality of Earth Reflectances) data from the period when PARASOL (Polarization and Anisotropy of Reflectances for Atmospheric Sciences coupled with Observations from a Lidar) was in the A-train is briefly discussed.

APS↗

TPSAS-NF1676L-34013-DND

Currently, many experiments pursuing comprehensive characterization of the atmosphere include coordinated observations by both lidar and polarimeters in order to obtain important complimentary information about aerosol properties. The most advanced passive observations by space-based multi-angle polarimeters are sensitive to the properties of aerosol in total atmospheric column, but have very limited sensitivity to vertical structure of the atmosphere. Polarimeter observations can be used not only for retrieval of aerosol optical thickness, but also for deriving microphysical information about aerosol particle shape, size distribution, complex refractive index, and the properties of underlying surface (Dubovik et al., 2019). In a contrast, the lidar observations of atmospheric responses from different altitudes to laser pulses are designed to provide vertical profiles of atmospheric characteristics. Here we present the recent advancement in GRASP algorithm (Generalized Aerosol Retrieval of Atmospheric and Surface Properties) (Dubovik et al., 2011, 2014) that allows simultaneous inversion of co-incident lidar and polarimeter spaceborne observations and derives a united set of vertically resolved aerosol and surface parameters. Such synergetic retrieval is an extension to satellite data of the approach for synergetic processing of active and passive measurements developed earlier by (Lopatin et al., 2013) for ground-based observations. Another addition to these developments is the inclusion of Raman-shifted and volume depolarization backscattering observations that improve sensitivity to the vertical properties of aerosol, while polarimetric observations provide sufficient constraints on aerosol type and loading that generally are missing in lidar signals. The potential and limitations of such synergetic processing is illustrated by application to co-incident PARASOL and CALIPSO data.

Anton Lopatin↗

Interactive modeling, design and analysis of large spacecraft

An efficient computer aided design and analysis capability applicable to large space structures was developed to relieve the engineer of much of the effort required in the past. The automated capabilities can be used to rapidly synthesize, evaluate, and determine performance characteristics and costs for future large spacecraft concepts. The interactive design and evaluation of advanced spacecraft program (IDEAS) is used to illustrate the power, efficiency, and versatility of the approach. The coupling of space environment modeling algorithms with simplified analysis and design modules in the IDEAS program permits rapid evaluation of completing spacecraft and mission designs. The approach is particularly useful in the conceptual design phase of advanced space missions when a multiplicity of concepts must be considered before a limited set can be selected or more detailed analysis. Integrated spacecraft systems level data and data files are generated or subsystems and mission reexamination and/or refinement and for more rigorous analyses.

Garrett, L. B.↗

An analysis of errors in special sensor microwave imager evaporation estimates over the global oceans

The method proposed by Liu (1984) is used to estimate monthly averaged evaporation over the global oceans from 1 yr of special sensor microwave imager (SDSM/I) data. Intercomparisons involving SSM/I and in situ data are made over a wide range of oceanic conditions during August 1987 and February 1988 to determine the source of errors in the evaporation estimates. The most significant spatially coherent evaporation errors are found to come from estimates of near-surface specific humidity, q. Systematic discrepancies of over 2 g/kg are found in the tropics, as well as in the middle and high latitudes. The q errors are partitioned into contributions from the parameterization of q in terms of the columnar water vapor, i.e., the Liu q/W relationship, and from the retrieval algorithm for W. The effects of W retrieval errors are found to be smaller over most of the global oceans and due primarily to the implicitly assumed vertical structures of temperature and specific humidity on which the physically based SSM/I retrievals of W are based.

Esbensen, S. K.↗

Thermal Conductivity and Specific Heat Measurements of Candidate Structural Materials for the JWST Optical Bench

The James Webb Space Telescope will include an optical bench known as the integrated science instrument module (ISIM). Candidate structural materials for the ISIM must have low density, high stiffness, high thermal conductivity, and low thermal expansion coefficient at the operating temperature of 30 Kelvin. The specific heat is also important in modeling the on-orbit cooldown. We built two different systems for measuring the thermal conductivity and specific heat of samples between 4 Kelvin and 290 Kelvin. Both experiments were carefully designed to minimize potential errors due to radiative heat transfer. We chose the cooling system and instrumentation to allow long-term unattended operation. Software was developed to automate each experiment. It used an algorithm designed to ensure that each system was in thermal equilibrium before a measurement was taken. We describe the two experiments and present the data.

Canavan, E. R.↗

Data-Enabled Predictive Control for Building HVAC Systems

Model predictive control is widely used as a control technology for the computation of optimal control inputs of building heating, ventilating, and air conditioning (HVAC) systems. However, both the benefits and widespread adoption of model predictive control (MPC) are hindered by the effort of model creation, calibration, and accuracy of the predictions. In this paper, we apply the data-enabled predictive control (DeePC) algorithm for designing controls for building HVAC systems. The algorithm solely depends on input/output data from the system to predict future state trajectories without the need for system identification. The algorithm relies on the idea that a vector space of all input–output trajectories of a discrete-time linear time-invariant (LTI) system is spanned by time-shifts of a single measured trajectory, given the input signal is persistently exciting. Closed-loop simulations using EnergyPlus are performed to demonstrate the approach. The simulated building modeled in EnergyPlus is a modified commercial large office prototype building served by an air handling unit-variable air volume HVAC system. Temperature setpoints of zones are used as control variables to minimize the HVAC energy cost of the building considering a time-of-use electricity rate structure. Furthermore, sensitivity analysis is conducted to gain insights into the effect of parameter tuning on DeePC performance. Simulation results are used to illustrate the performance of the algorithm and compare the algorithm with model-based MPC and occupancy-based setpoint controller. Overall, DeePC achieves similar performance compared to MPC for lower engineering effort.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

On-Line Mu Method for Robust Flutter Prediction in Expanding a Safe Flight Envelope for an Aircraft Model Under Flight Test

A structured singular value (mu) analysis method of computing flutter margins has robust stability of a linear aeroelastic model with uncertainty operators (Delta). Flight data is used to update the uncertainty operators to accurately account for errors in the computed model and the observed range of aircraft dynamics of the aircraft under test caused by time-varying aircraft parameters, nonlinearities, and flight anomalies, such as test nonrepeatability. This mu-based approach computes predict flutter margins that are worst case with respect to the modeling uncertainty for use in determining when the aircraft is approaching a flutter condition and defining an expanded safe flight envelope for the aircraft that is accepted with more confidence than traditional methods that do not update the analysis algorithm with flight data by introducing mu as a flutter margin parameter that presents several advantages over tracking damping trends as a measure of a tendency to instability from available flight data.

Lind, Richard C.↗

Single-Point Access to Data Distributed on Many Processors

A description of the functions and data structures is defined that would be necessary to implement the Chapel concept of distributions, domains, allocation, access, and interfaces to the compiler for transformations from Chapel source to their run-time implementation for these concepts. A complete set of object-oriented operators is defined that enables one to access elements of a distributed array through regular arithmetic index sets, giving the programmer the illusion that all the elements are collocated on a single processor. This means that arbitrary regions of the arrays can be fragmented and distributed across multiple processors with a single point of access. This is important because it can significantly improve programmer productivity by allowing the programmers to concentrate on the high-level details of the algorithm without worrying about the efficiency and communication details of the underlying representation.

James, Mark↗

Improved algorithms for circulation-control airfoils in transonic flow

A zonal model for aerodynamic analysis of two-dimensional transonic circulation control airfoils has been developed. The present approach combines a transonic full potential method for the global flow field and an integral boundary layer method for regions of the airfoil excluding the wall jet with a parabolized Navier-Stokes code for resolving the wall jet region beyond the slot. Existing methods suffer from two deficiencies: the insensitivity of the calculation to small changes in the Coanda surface geometry; and the inability to predict the shock structure of the underexpanded supersonic wall jets. The present wall jet procedure involves a pressure-split approach in the streamwise sense to enable noniterative solution of the coupled continuity and normal momentum equations for increased surface sensitivity and allows for expansion of applications to sonic slot exit conditions. Encouraging results are obtained in comparison with experimental data for two circulation airfoils with subsonic wall jets.

Dvorak, Frank A.↗

Gene Expression Dynamics Inspector (GEDI): for integrative analysis of expression profiles

Genome-wide expression profiles contain global patterns that evade visual detection in current gene clustering analysis. Here, a Gene Expression Dynamics Inspector (GEDI) is described that uses self-organizing maps to translate high-dimensional expression profiles of time courses or sample classes into animated, coherent and robust mosaics images. GEDI facilitates identification of interesting patterns of molecular activity simultaneously across gene, time and sample space without prior assumption of any structure in the data, and then permits the user to retrieve genes of interest. Important changes in genome-wide activities may be quickly identified based on 'Gestalt' recognition and hence, GEDI may be especially useful for non-specialist end users, such as physicians. AVAILABILITY: GEDI v1.0 is written in Matlab, and binary Matlab.dll files which require Matlab to run can be downloaded for free by academic institutions at http://www.chip.org/~ge/gedihome.html Supplementary information: http://www.chip.org/~ge/gedihome.html.

Database Management Systems↗

Jet energy drop

We study the jet energy drop, which is the relative difference between the groomed and ungroomed jet energy or transverse momentum. It is one of the fundamental quantities that characterizes the impact of grooming on jets produced in high energy collisions. We consider three different grooming algorithms i) soft drop, ii) iterated soft drop, and iii) trimming. We carry out the resummation of large logarithms of the jet energy drop, the jet radius as well as relevant grooming parameters at next-to-leading logarithmic (NLL') accuracy. In addition, we account for non-global and clustering logarithms, and determine the next-to-leading order corrections. For soft drop we perform a joint resummation of the jet energy drop and the groomed jet radius, which is necessary to achieve the correct all-order structure of the cross section, in particular for the Sudakov-safe case of soft drop with β = 0. We present numerical results for LHC energies and compare to Pythia simulations as well as CMS data. Our factorization framework predicts the onset of nonperturbative effects in the jet energy distribution, in line with what we find in Pythia. The jet energy drop observables stand out because they only probe soft radiation, making them ideal candidates for the tuning of parton shower Monte Carlo event generators and for probing medium effects in heavy-ion collisions.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Data-driven Distributed Learning of Multi-agent Systems: A Koopman Operator Approach

Koopman operator theory provides a model-free technique for studying nonlinear dynamical systems purely from data. Since the Koopman operator is infinite-dimensional, researchers have developed several methods that provide a finite-dimensional approximation of the Koopman operator so that it can be applied for practical use cases. One common thing with most of the methods is that their solutions are obtained by solving a centralized minimization problem. In this work, we treat the dynamical system to be a multi-agent system and propose an algorithm to compute the finite-dimensional approximation of the Koopman operator in a distributed manner using the knowledge of the topology of the underlying multi-agent system. The proposed distributed approach is shown to be equivalent to the centralized learning problem and results in a sparse Koopman whose block structure mimics the Laplacian of the multi-agent system. Extensive simulation studies illustrate the proposed framework on the network of oscillators and the IEEE 68 bus system.

Nandanoori, Sai Pushpak↗

MSASGCN : Multi-Head Self-Attention Spatiotemporal Graph Convolutional Network for Traffic Flow Forecasting

Traffic flow forecasting is an essential task of an intelligent transportation system (ITS), closely related to intelligent transportation management and resource scheduling. Dynamic spatial-temporal dependencies in traffic data make traffic flow forecasting to be a challenging task. Most existing research cannot model dynamic spatial and temporal correlations to achieve well-forecasting performance. The multi-head self-attention mechanism is a valuable method to capture dynamic spatial-temporal correlations, and combining it with graph convolutional networks is a promising solution. Therefore, we propose a multi-head self-attention spatiotemporal graph convolutional network (MSASGCN) model. It can effectively capture local correlations and potential global correlations of spatial structures, can handle dynamic evolution of the road network, and, in the time dimension, can effectively capture dynamic temporal correlations. Experiments on two real datasets verify the stability of our proposed model, obtaining a better prediction performance than the baseline algorithms. The correlation metrics get significantly reduced compared with traditional time series prediction methods and deep learning methods without using graph neural networks, according to MAE and RMSE results. Compared with advanced traffic flow forecasting methods, our model also has a performance improvement and a more stable prediction performance. We also discuss some problems and challenges in traffic forecasting.

Cao, Yang↗

Improving Subsurface Stress Characterization for Carbon Dioxide Storage Projects by Incorporating Machine Learning Techniques

The overall objective of this project is to develop a framework for reliable characterization and prediction of the state of stress in the overburden and underburden (including the basement) in CO 2 storage reservoirs using machine learning and integrated geomechanics and geophysical methods. Specifically, we propose to develop workflow encompassing of technologies and/or methods to predict stress and pressure changes due to CO 2 injection in an active tertiary recovery site and their impacts on subtle fault activation, fractures and occurrence of microseismic events and compare responses to field observations. In this project, we anticipate using dataset from the Farnsworth field Unit (FWU) which is operated by Purdure Petroleum. A novel elastic-waveform VSP inversion technique will be used to estimate high-resolution spatial and temporal changes of elastic moduli in CO 2 storage reservoirs, which will be combined with velocity-stress relationship derived from laboratory tests to obtain subsurface pressure and stress. Clustered microseismic data will be jointly inverted for improved focal mechanisms. Least-squares reverse-time migration of microseismic waveform data will be performed to directly image fracture/fault zones. Additionally, a deep neural network machine learning technique with convolutional and recurrent layers will be used for learning the spectro-temporal structures in microseismic waveforms. The results of this geotechnical data analysis will be integrated to develop a high-resolution 3D mechanical earth model extending from the overburden sealing formations to the underburden including the basement. Mechanical properties will be derived through integration of mechanical logs, tests, available results from chemo-mechanical laboratory tests, and elastic inversion of seismic data using a combination of Bayesian and stochastic methods as well as machine learning technique. Failure features (faults/fractures) will be represented and/or modeled based on seismic and core data analysis. A transient hydrodynamic-geomechanical model will be developed through coupling with the calibrated FWU reservoir simulation model. The full physics coupled model will be used to train a reduced order proxy model using machine learning algorithm for estimating stress which will then be used with appropriate constitutive relationships and forward seismological models to simulate pressure changes and induced microseismicity. An advanced optimization framework will be developed to perform a history match to minimize error between field observations and simulated. The history matched proxy model will be verified against the full-physics equivalent. The field observations that will be used in the coupled model calibration process include pressure/stress inverted from VSP, moment magnitude from microseismic analysis, real time downhole pressure measurements, production and injection data. Parameter sensitivity and uncertainty analysis will be performed to characterize the impact of model parameter uncertainty on stress estimates. The proposed project will have significant impact on future field implementation of the proposed technology. Because the project field site is an ongoing CO 2 EOR development, the value of the new technology will be demonstrated in an operational context and evaluated as a viable risk mitigation strategy. Cost/benefit will be evaluated together with the various commercial incentives for CO 2 sequestration available to oil and gas operators. The extensive available dataset and ongoing data acquisition under the SWP Phase III work plan provides flexibility for investigation of multiple approaches and reduces technical risk.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Research support of the WETNET Program

This study examines various aspects of the Microwave Vegetation Index (MVI). MVI is a derived signal created by differencing the spectral response of the 37 GHz horizontally and vertically polarized passive microwave signals. The microwave signal employed to derive this index is thought to be primarily influenced by vegetation structure, vegetation growth, standing water, and precipitation. The state of California is the study site for this research. Imagery from the Special Sensor Microwave/Imager (SSM/I) is used for the creation of MVI datasets analyzed in this research. The object of this research is to determine whether MVI corresponds with some quantifiable vegetation parameter (such as vegetation density) or whether the index is more affected by known biogeophysical parameters such antecedent precipitation. A secondary question associated with the above is whether the vegetation attributes that MVI is employed to determine can be more easily and accurately evaluated by other remote sensing means. An important associated question to be addressed in the study is the effect of different multi-temporal composting techniques on the derived MVI dataset. This work advances our understanding of the fundamental nature of MVI by studying vegetation as a mixture of structural types, such as forest and grassland. The study further advances our understanding by creating multitemporal precipitation datasets to compare the affects of precipitation upon MVI. This work will help to lay the groundwork for the use of passive microwave spectral information either as an adjunct to visible and near infrared imagery in areas where that is feasible or for the use of passive microwave alone in areas of moderate cloud coverage. In this research, an MVI dataset, spanning the period February 15, 1989 through April 25, 1990, has been created using National Aeronautic and Space Administration (NASA) supplied brightness temperature data. Information from the DMSP satellite 37 GHz wavelength SSM/I sensor in both horizontal and vertical polarization has been processed using the MVI algorithm. In conjunction with the MVI algorithm a multitemporal compositing technique was used to create datasets that correspond to 14 day periods. In this technical report, Section Two contains background information on the State of California and the three MVI study sites. Section Three describes the methods used to create the MVI and independent variables datasets. Section Four presents the results of the experiment. Section Five summarizes and concludes the work.

Estes, John E.↗