SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “Wind forecasting”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

SourceResearch connectionFrom yearThrough year

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 1,675 records · Page 93

All sources NASA NTRS DOE OSTI

DOE OSTI2014

Impact of magnetic fields on ram pressure stripping in disk galaxies

Ram pressure stripping can remove significant amounts of gas from galaxies in clusters and massive groups and thus has a large impact on the evolution of cluster galaxies. Recent observations have shown that key properties of ram-pressure-stripped tails of galaxies, such as their width and structure, are in conflict with predictions by simulations. To increase the realism of existing simulations, we simulated for the first time a disk galaxy exposed to a uniformly magnetized wind including radiative cooling and self-gravity of the gas. We find that magnetic fields have a strong effect on the morphology of the gas in the tail of the galaxy. While in the purely hydrodynamical case the tail is very clumpy, the magnetohydrodynamical case shows very filamentary structures in the tail. The filaments can be strongly supported by magnetic pressure and, wherever this is the case, the magnetic fields vectors tend to be aligned with the filaments. The ram pressure stripping process may lead to the formation of magnetized density tails that appear as bifurcated in the plane of the sky and resemble the double tails observed in ESO 137-001 and ESO 137-002. Such tails can be formed under a variety of situations, both for the disks oriented face-on with respect to the intracluster medium (ICM) wind and for the tilted ones. While this bifurcation is the consequence of the generic tendency for the magnetic fields to produce very filamentary tail morphology, the tail properties are further shaped by the combination of the magnetic field orientation and the sliding of the field past the disk surface exposed to the wind. Despite the fact that the effect of the magnetic field on the morphology of the tail is strong, magnetic draping does not strongly change the rate of gas stripping. For a face-on galaxy, the field tends to reduce the amount of gas stripping compared to the pure hydrodynamical case, and is associated with the formation of a stable magnetic draping layer on the side of the galaxy exposed to the incoming ICM wind. For significantly tilted disks, the situation may be reversed and the stripping rate may be enhanced by the 'scraping' of the disk surface by the magnetic fields sliding past the ISM/ICM interface. Instabilities, such as gravitational instabilities, undo the protective effect of this layer and allow the gas to leak out of the galaxy.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2024

X-Band Radar and Surface-Based Observations of Cold-Season Precipitation in Western Colorado’s Complex Terrain

Abstract Hydrologic processes associated with intermountain cold-season precipitation in the Upper Colorado River basin have important impacts on avalanche forecasting and water resource management. However, traditional weather radar networks struggle with observations in this complex terrain. Data collected during the Study of Precipitation, the Lower Atmosphere, and the Surface for Hydrometeorology (SPLASH) and its sister campaign, Surface Atmosphere Integrated Field Laboratory (SAIL) in the East River watershed of western Colorado, are used to examine a multistorm period from 23 December 2021 to 1 January 2022 that contributed 35% of the total winter precipitation in this watershed. Dual-polarization X-band radar and disdrometer measurements show ∼30-mm differences in precipitation amount at two sites in proximity over four distinct storm events within the period. Wind patterns, synoptic forcings, microphysical characteristics of precipitation, and surface meteorology are analyzed to explain the observed spatial variability of cold-season precipitation in complex mountainous terrain. Analysis shows that differences over time within this event are mainly accounted for by synoptic forcings, such as frontal passages; differences between sites are accounted for by the impact of variations in local wind patterns on precipitation microphysics. Patterns of surface precipitation intensity are compared and found to be correlated with X-band radar signatures; a relationship between a strong dendritic growth stage and intense low-density surface precipitation is reinforced by this study. This relationship demonstrates the importance of particle growth mechanisms on surface snowfall patterns in high-altitude complex terrain, underscoring the importance of realistic microphysical parameterizations. Significance Statement The amount and density of snowpack from western Colorado winter storms have significant impacts on water resources in the Upper Colorado River basin. Snowpack characteristics are affected by small-scale differences in how snow forms in the atmosphere. These differences are hard to study in the complex terrain of the Rockies, but data from the SPLASH and SAIL field campaigns allows us to investigate how snow crystal formation and mountain-driven wind patterns affect snow near the surface. Our study finds that snow crystal growth varies over small space and time scales and is likely controlled by the terrain beneath a given location and resultant local wind patterns. These results imply that predicting snowpack in the Rockies requires properly representing local wind patterns and crystal growth processes in models.

Heflin, Stella↗

DOE OSTI2022

Amazonian Moisture Recycling Revisited Using WRF With Water Vapor Tracers

Previous studies have estimated that 25%–35% of Amazonian precipitation comes from evapotranspiration (ET) within the basin. However, due to simplifying assumptions of traditional models, these studies primarily focus on large spatial and temporal scales. This study is the first to analyze the moisture of Amazonian origin at the annual to daily timescale in four different subregions of the Amazon. We analyze the sources, sinks and stores of moisture that originates as Amazonian ET. To do this, we use the Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) regional meteorological model with the added capability of water vapor tracers to track this moisture. Moisture of Amazonian origin shows strong annual and semi-annual signals, with contrasting behavior between the northern and southern parts of the basin. The tracers reveal a strong diurnal cycle of Amazonian water vapor which had not been previously reported. This signal is related to the diurnal cycle of ET, convective precipitation and advected moisture. ET's contribution to atmospheric moisture increases from early morning into the afternoon. Some of this moisture is rained out through convective storms in the early evening. Later in the night and following morning, strong winds associated with the South American Low Level Jet advect moisture downwind. Overall, the beating pattern becomes apparent when visualizing the Amazonian water vapor as an animation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS2001

Lower Stratospheric Temperature Differences Between Meteorological Analyses in two cold Arctic Winters and their Impact on Polar Processing Studies

A quantitative intercomparison of six meteorological analyses is presented for the cold 1999-2000 and 1995-1996 Arctic winters. The impacts of using different analyzed temperatures in calculations of polar stratospheric cloud (PSC) formation potential, and of different winds in idealized trajectory-based temperature histories, are substantial. The area with temperatures below a PSC formation threshold commonly varies by approximately 25% among the analyses, with differences of over 50% at some times/locations. Freie University at Berlin analyses are often colder than others at T is less than or approximately 205 K. Biases between analyses vary from year to year; in January 2000. U.K. Met Office analyses were coldest and National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) analyses warmest. while NCEP analyses were usually coldest in 1995-1996 and Met Office or NCEP[National Center for Atmospheric Research Reanalysis (REAN) warmest. European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (ECMWF) temperatures agreed better with other analyses in 1999-2000, after improvements in the assimilation model. than in 1995-1996. Case-studies of temperature histories show substantial differences using Met Office, NCEP, REAN and NASA Data Assimilation Office (DAO) analyses. In January 2000 (when a large cold region was centered in the polar vortex), qualitatively similar results were obtained for all analyses. However, in February 2000 (a much warmer period) and in January and February 1996 (comparably cold to January 2000 but with large cold regions near the polar vortex edge), distributions of "potential PSC lifetimes" and total time spent below a PSC formation threshold varied significantly among the analyses. Largest peaks in "PSC lifetime" distributions in January 2000 were at 4-6 and 11-14 days. while in the 1996 periods, they were at 1-3 days. Thus different meteorological conditions in comparably cold winters had a large impact on expectations for PSC formation and on the discrepancies between different meteorological analyses. Met Office. NCEP, REAN, ECMWF and DAO analyses are commonly used for trajectory calculations and in chemical transport models; the choice of which analysis to use can strongly influence the results of such studies.

Manney, Gloria L.↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

The Antarctic Stratospheric Warming and its Impacts in 2019

We explore the mechanism, predictability and hemispheric-wide surface impacts of a rare stratospheric warming that occurred above Antarctica during austral spring (September to November) 2019, using the Japanese 55-year reanalysis set for the period 1979-2019. From late August to mid-September, the stratospheric polar vortex suddenly weakened, and the stratospheric temperatures dramatically rose over the Antarctic polar cap. The deceleration of the vortex observed at 10 hPa was as drastic as that of the first ever observed major sudden stratospheric warming in the SH during 2002, while the mean warming in the mid-stratosphere (~30hPa) over the course of spring 2019 broke the previous record of 2002 by ~50%. The key mechanism for this event was a poleward shift of the polar night jet near the stratopause during mid-winter and subsequent record strong planetary wavenumber-one activity propagating from the troposphere in August, which acted to dramatically weaken the polar vortex. The easterly wind anomalies and positive temperature anomalies moved downward to the surface during October to December, causing the index polarity of the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) to become record-negative for the season. The record negative SAM played a key role in inducing significant local climate extremes over eastern Australia, southern New Zealand, eastern South America and western Patagonia. Especially, the strong negative SAM was the key driver of the extreme hot and dry conditions over subtropical eastern Australia in late spring 2019 that, in turn, were conducive for the severe wildfires that occurred during that time. State-of-the-art dynamical sub-seasonal to seasonal forecast systems skilfully predicted the upward propagating wavenumber-one activity in August, the significant vortex weakening of austral spring 2019, and subsequent development of negative SAM from late July.

Eun-Pa Lim↗

NASA NTRS2023

Observations of Typhoon Generated Gravity Waves From the CIPS and AIRS Instruments and Comparison to the High-Resolution ECMWF Model

The satellite-based Cloud Imaging and Particle Size (CIPS) instrument and Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) observed concentric gravity waves (GWs) generated by Typhoon Yutu in late October 2018. This work compares CIPS and AIRS nadir viewing observations of GWs at altitudes of 50–55 and 30–40 km, respectively, to simulations from the high-resolution European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasting Integrated Forecasting System (ECMWF-IFS) and ECMWF reanalysis v5 (ERA5). Both ECMWF-IFS with 9 km and ERA5 with 31 km horizontal resolution show concentric GWs at similar locations and timing as the AIRS and CIPS observations. The GW wavelengths are ∼225–236 km in ECMWF-IFS simulations, which compares well with the wavelength inferred from the observations. After validation of ECMWF GWs, five category five typhoon events during 2018 are analyzed using ECMWF to obtain characteristics of concentric GWs in the Western Pacific regions. The amplitudes of GWs in the stratosphere are not strongly correlated with the strength of typhoons, but are controlled by background wind conditions. Our results confirm that amplitudes and shapes of concentric GWs observed in the stratosphere and lowermost mesosphere are heavily influenced by the background wind conditions.

gravity wave↗

DOE OSTI2025

Historical and Future Windstorms in the Northeastern United States

Large-scale windstorms represent an important atmospheric hazard in the Northeastern US (NE) and are associated with substantial socioeconomic losses. Regional simulations performed with the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model using lateral boundary conditions from three Earth System Models (ESMs: Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL), Hadley Centre Global Environment Model (HadGEM) and Max Planck Institute (MPI)) are used to quantify possible future changes in windstorm characteristics and/or changes in the parent cyclone types responsible for windstorms. WRF nested within MPI ESM best represents important aspects of historical windstorms and the cyclone types responsible for generating windstorms compared with a reference simulation performed with the ERA-Interim reanalysis for the historical climate. The spatial scale and frequency of the largest windstorms in each simulation defined using the greatest extent of exceedance of local 99.9th percentile wind speeds (U > U999) plus 50-year return period wind speeds (U50,RP) do not exhibit secular trends. Projections of extreme wind speeds and windstorm intensity/frequency/geolocation and dominant parent cyclone type associated with windstorms vary markedly across the simulations. Only the MPI nested simulations indicate statistically significant differences in windstorm spatial scale, frequency and intensity over the NE in the future and historical periods. This model chain, which also exhibits the highest fidelity in the historical climate, yields evidence of future increases in 99.9th percentile 10 m height wind speeds, the frequency of simultaneous U > U999 over a substantial fraction (5–25%) of the NE and the frequency of maximum wind speeds above 22.5 ms−1. These geophysical changes, coupled with a projected doubling of population, leads to a projected tripling of a socioeconomic loss index, and hence risk to human systems, from future windstorms.

Pryor, Sara C. (ORCID:0000000348473440)↗

NASA NTRS2018

The Atmosphere-Ocean Interface Layer of NASA's Goddard Earth Observing System Model and Data Assimilation System Volume 51

The Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) general circulation model (GCM) includes modules for sea surface temperature (SST) diurnal warming and cool-skin layers. To support the application of a coupled atmosphere-ocean data assimilation capability, the GCM needs to be flexible enough to support both coupled atmosphere ocean general circulation model (AOGCM) and atmosphere-only (AGCM) configurations, with only minor configuration changes at the user interface. This document presents a formulation of an atmosphere-ocean interface layer (AOIL) that serves this purpose. Previous work by Akella et al. (2017) described a version of a model for near-surface temperature variations, including both both diurnal warming and cool-skin effects, that has been used since 2017 in the near-real-time GEOS FP (forward processing) weather analysis and forecasting system. The diurnal cycle of SST in that version of the GEOS atmospheric data assimilation system (ADAS) undergoes a sharp decay in the late afternoon (local time). The updated AOIL presented here includes a modification of the similarity function used in the diurnal warming model. Results from offline model runs illustrate an improvement in the near-surface (less than 0:5m depth) diurnal cycle compared to the original formulation. The new formulation requires minimal parameter tuning, and the improvements are robust across long (several month) simulation periods. This new model formulation, however, retains some deficiences from the previous module, such as a small warm bias in calm wind conditions for water depths below 1m. Our future work would include surface salinification and sea-ice into the AOIL.

Koster, Randal D.↗

DOE OSTI2018

An Intercomparison of GCM and RCM Dynamical Downscaling for Characterizing the Hydroclimatology of California and Nevada

Abstract Dynamical downscaling is a widely used technique to properly capture regional surface heterogeneities that shape the local hydroclimatology. However, in the context of dynamical downscaling, the impacts on simulation fidelity have not been comprehensively evaluated across many user-specified factors, including the refinements of model horizontal resolution, large-scale forcing datasets, and dynamical cores. Two global-to-regional downscaling methods are used to assess these: specifically, the variable-resolution Community Earth System Model (VR-CESM) and the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model with horizontal resolutions of 28, 14, and 7 km. The modeling strategies are assessed by comparing the VR-CESM and WRF simulations with consistent physical parameterizations and grid domains. Two groups of WRF Models are driven by either the NCEP reanalysis dataset (WRF_NCEP) or VR-CESM7 results (WRF_VRCESM) to evaluate the effects of large-scale forcing datasets. The simulated hydroclimatologies are compared with reference datasets for key properties including total precipitation, snow cover, snow water equivalent (SWE), and surface temperature. The large-scale forcing datasets are critical to the WRF simulations of total precipitation but not surface temperature, controlled by the wind field and atmospheric moisture transport at the ocean boundary. No significant benefit is found in the regional average simulated hydroclimatology by increasing horizontal resolution refinement from 28 to 7 km, probably due to the systematic biases from the diagnostic treatment of rainfall and snowfall in the microphysics scheme. The choice of dynamical core has little impact on total precipitation but significantly determines simulated surface temperature, which is affected by the snow-albedo feedback in winter and soil moisture estimations in summer.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS2019

Analysis of A Severe Dust Storm and Its Impact on Air Quality Conditions Using Wrf-Chem Modeling, Satellite Imagery, and Ground Observations

This study presents a comprehensive analysis of an extreme dust event recorded in the Arabian Peninsula and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) between 31 March and 3 April 2015. Simulations of the dust event with the Weather Research and Forecasting model coupled with the Chemistry module (WRF-Chem) were analyzed and verified using MSG-SEVIRI imagery and aerosol optical depth (AOD) from the recent 1-km Multi-Angle Implementation of Atmospheric Correction (MAIAC) algorithm for MODIS Terra/Aqua. Data from the National Centers for Atmospheric Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR) and the upper-air radiosonde observations were used to understand the synoptic of the event. In addition, the impact of the event on atmospheric and air quality conditions is investigated. The Air Quality Index (AQI) was calculated prior, during, and after the event to assess the degradation of air quality conditions. Simulated temperature, relative humidity, wind speed, and surface radiation were compared to observations at six monitoring stations in the UAE giving R2 values of 0.84, 0.63, 0.60, and 0.84, respectively. From 1 to 2 April 2015, both observations and simulations showed an average drop in temperature from 33 to 26 °C and radiance reduction from about 950 to 520 Wm−2. The AOD modeled by WRF-Chem showed a good correlation with Aerosol Robotic Network (AERONET) measurements in the UAE with R2 of 0.83. The AQI over the UAE reached hazardous levels during the peak of the dust event before rapidly decreasing to moderate–good air quality levels. This work is the first attempt to demonstrate the potential of using WRF-Chem to estimate AQI over the UAE along with two satellite products (MODIS-MAIAC and MSG-SEVIRI) for dust detection and tracking.

dust storm↗

NASA NTRS1999

Simulation of a Real-Time Local Data Integration System over East-Central Florida

The Applied Meteorology Unit (AMU) simulated a real-time configuration of a Local Data Integration System (LDIS) using data from 15-28 February 1999. The objectives were to assess the utility of a simulated real-time LDIS, evaluate and extrapolate system performance to identify the hardware necessary to run a real-time LDIS, and determine the sensitivities of LDIS. The ultimate goal for running LDIS is to generate analysis products that enhance short-range (less than 6 h) weather forecasts issued in support of the 45th Weather Squadron, Spaceflight Meteorology Group, and Melbourne National Weather Service operational requirements. The simulation used the Advanced Regional Prediction System (ARPS) Data Analysis System (ADAS) software on an IBM RS/6000 workstation with a 67-MHz processor. This configuration ran in real-time, but not sufficiently fast for operational requirements. Thus, the AMU recommends a workstation with a 200-MHz processor and 512 megabytes of memory to run the AMU's configuration of LDIS in real-time. This report presents results from two case studies and several data sensitivity experiments. ADAS demonstrates utility through its ability to depict high-resolution cloud and wind features in a variety of weather situations. The sensitivity experiments illustrate the influence of disparate data on the resulting ADAS analyses.

Case, Jonathan↗

NASA NTRS2007

Stable Low Cloud Phase II: Nocturnal Event Study

This report describes the work done by the Applied Meteorology Unit (AMU) in developing a database of nights that experienced rapid (< 90 minutes) low cloud formation in a stable atmosphere, resulting in ceilings at the Shuttle Landing Facility (TTS) that violated Space Shuttle Flight Rules (FR). This work is the second phase of a similar AMU task that examined the same phenomena during the day. In the first phase of this work, the meteorological conditions favoring the rapid formation of low ceilings include the presence of any inversion below 8000 ft, high relative humidity (RH) beneath the inversion and a clockwise turning of the winds from the surface to the middle troposphere (-15000 ft). The AMU compared and contrasted the atmospheric and thermodynamic conditions between nights with rapid low ceiling formation and nights with low ceilings resulting from other mechanisms. The AMU found that there was little to discern between the rapidly-forming ceiling nights and other low ceiling nights at TTS. When a rapid development occurred, the average RH below the inversions was 87% while non-events had an average RH of 79%. One key parameter appeared to be the vertical wind profile in the Cape Canaveral, FL radiosonde (XMR) sounding. Eighty-three percent of the rapid development events had veering winds with height from the surface to the middle troposphere (-15,000 ft) while 61% of the non-events had veering winds with height. Veering winds indicate a warm-advection regime, which supports large-scale rising motion and ultimately cloud formation in a moist environment. However, only six of the nights (out of 86 events examined) with low cloud ceilings had an occurrence of rapidly developing ceilings. Since only 7% rapid development events were observed in this dataset, it is likely that rapid low cloud development is not a common occurrence during the night, or at least not as common as during the day. In the AMU work on the daytime rapid low cloud development (Case and Wheeler 2005), nearly 30% of the low cloud ceiling cases investigated were identified as rapidly developing events. Forecasters at the Space Meteorology Group (SMG) issue 30 to 90 minute forecasts for low cloud ceilings at TTS to support Space Shuttle landings. Mission verification statistics have shown ceilings to be the number one forecast challenge. More specifically, forecasters at SMG are concerned with any rapidly developing clouds/ceilings below 8000 R in a stable, capped thermodynamic environment. Therefore, the AMU was tasked to examine archived events of rapid stable cloud formation resulting in ceilings below 8000 ft, and document the atmospheric regimes favoring this type of cloud development. The AMU examined the cool season months of November to March during the years of 1994-2005 for nights that had low-level inversions and rapid, stable low cloud formation that resulted in ceilings violating the Space Shuttle FR. The AMU wrote and modified existing code to identify inversions from the evening and morning XMR radiosonde during the cool season and output pertinent sounding information. They parsed all days with cloud ceilings below 8000 ft at TTS, forming a database of possible rapidly-developing low ceiling events. Nights with precipitation or noticeable fog burn-off situations were excluded from the database. Only the nighttime hours were examined for possible ceiling development events since the daytime events were examined in the first phase of this work. The report presents one sample case of rapidly-developing low cloud ceilings. The case depicts the representative meteorological and thermodynamic characteristics of such events. The case also illustrates how quickly the cloud decks can develop, sometimes forming in 30 minutes or less. The report also summarizes the composite meteorological conditions for 6 event nights with rapid low cloud ceiling formation and 80 non-events nights consisting of advection or widespread low cloud ceilings. The teorological conditions were quite similar for both the event and non-event nights, since both types of nights experienced low cloud ceilings. Both types of nights had a relatively moist environment beneath an inversion based below 8000 ft.

Bauman, William H., III↗

DOE OSTI2021

Data-Driven Specification of Earth's Magnetic Field

As our society is increasingly dependent on technologies in space, predicting space weather becomes ever more important. We have come to rely on technologies such as cellphones, GPS, the Internet, and other commercial and military assets. In order to protect these systems a high priority is to develop better understanding of the harmful conditions of space weather encountered in the near-Earth radiation environment which are mostly dictated by the dynamics of energetic charged particles. The main objective of our proposal was to improve the specification and forecast of the particle distribution in the Earth’s inner magnetosphere using data assimilation together with machine learning (ML) algorithms in our ring current-atmosphere interactions model with self-consistent magnetic and electric fields (RAM-SCBE). Specifically, we explored the application of machine learning algorithms to emulate and improve, through infusion of observational data, the magnetic field (SCBE) of our ring current model. Our work advanced towards the characterization of the RAM-SCBE particle flux field and its potentially different simulation scenarios. We explored how the model behaves in a number of simulation scenarios in order to better understand how the model reacts to perturbations in the solar wind. We were able to capture this behavior through the simulation of an ensemble of RAM-SCB model solutions. The ensemble showed the important correlations between the particle fluxes and the magnetic field. We were able to start the training of a neural network (Autoencoder) to identify the dominant features of the magnetic field, and the main correlations (linear and non-linear) between the particle fluxes and the magnetic field. Our next steps consists of training a neural network to capture the time evolution of the dominant features and obtain a consistent surrogate model for the RAM-SCB.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2022

Impact of Transport Electrification Demand and Charging Schedules on Electricity Markets and Nuclear Generators

As the U.S. pursues deep decarbonization targets, electric vehicles (EVs) are likely to become a major driver of demand growth and a major determinant of daily demand patterns. This study analyzes a possible future ERCOT-like electricity grid, and examines the impact of different types of EV charging schedules on grid and market outcomes. This analysis demonstrates the significant impact of EV charging patterns on capacity expansion simulations. Even without EVs, the overall daily demand profile in a market can have significant impacts on prices and grid stability in that system, especially if non-dispatchable renewable generators (e.g. wind and solar) make up a significant fraction of the generation mix. EV demand will not necessarily follow this preexisting demand profile, so its daily trends may significantly change what generation portfolio would optimally serve the system. Furthermore, the effects of EV demand can alter the profitability of different types of units, by altering the frequency of market events like extreme-demand hours or zero-price hours. These effects are explored in this study. The EV demand levels were derived from MARKAL simulations of the West-South-Central North American Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC) region for the year 2050, using a carbon tax of $100/ton. The baseline MARKAL simulation forecasted that 23% of the region’s annual electricity demand in 2050 would be attributable to EVs, and broke out demand projections for EV and non-EV end-use in that year. To model lower EV penetration into the system, an additional case was explored which assumed that EVs only achieved 75% of the demand level projected by MARKAL.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2023

Dynamically Downscaled Hourly Future Weather Data with 12-km Resolution Covering Most of North America

This is an hourly future weather dataset for energy modeling applications. The dataset is primarily based on the output of a regional climate model (RCM), i.e., the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model version 3.3.1. The WRF simulations are driven by the output of a general circulation model (GCM), i.e., the Community Climate System Model version 4 (CCSM4). This dataset is in the EPW format, which can be read or translated by more than 25 building energy modeling programs (e.g., EnergyPlus, ESP-r, and IESVE), energy system modeling programs (e.g., System Advisor Model (SAM)), indoor air quality analysis programs (e.g., CONTAM), and hygrothermal analysis programs (e.g., WUFI). It contains 13 weather variables, which are the Dry-Bulb Temperature, Dew Point Temperature, Relative Humidity, Atmospheric Pressure, Horizontal Infrared Radiation Intensity from Sky, Global Horizontal Irradiation, Direct Normal Irradiation, Diffuse Horizontal Irradiation, Wind Speed, Wind Direction, Sky Cover, Albedo, and Liquid Precipitation Depth. The weather data is created for two emissions scenarios: RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 and spans two 10-year time slices in the future: 2045 - 2054 and 2085 - 2094. It offers a spatial resolution of 12 km by 12 km with extensive coverage across most of North America. Due to the enormous size of the entire dataset, in the first stage of its distribution, we provide 20 years of future weather data for the centroid of each Public Use Microdata Area (PUMA), excluding Hawaii. PUMAs are non-overlapping, statistical geographic areas that partition each state or equivalent entity into geographic areas containing no fewer than 100,000 people each. The 2,378 PUMAs as a whole cover the entirety of the U.S. The weather data can be utilized alongside the large-scale energy analysis tools, ResStock and ComStock, developed by National Renewable Energy Laboratory, whose smallest resolution is at the PUMA scale. The data for RCP4.5 is still being processed and will be published soon.

Array↗

DOE OSTI2019

Capability of CAM5.1 in simulating maximum air temperature patterns over West Africa during boreal spring

This study classifies maximum air temperature patterns over West Africa into six groups and evaluates the capability of a global climate model (Community Atmospheric Model version 5.1; CAM) to simulate them. We analyzed 45-year (1961–2005) multi-ensemble (50 members) simulations from CAM and compared the results with those of the Climate Research Unit (CRU) and the twentieth Century Reanalysis data sets. Using Self Organizing Map algorithm to classify the spatial patterns of maximum air temperature during boreal spring, the study reveals the temperature patterns that CAM can simulate well and those the model struggles to reproduce. The results show that the best agreements between the composites of observation and CAM occur in the first temperature pattern group (which features positive temperatures anomalies over the Sahel) and Node 2 (which features near-normal temperature) pattern of the third group. CAM succeeded in reproducing some of the associated regional atmospheric dynamics and thermodynamic features in winds (horizontal and vertical), temperature fields, the cloud fractions, and the mean sea-level pressure. Although CAM struggles to capture the relationship between air temperature patterns and tele-connection indices during the boreal spring season over West Africa, it agrees with observations that temperature patterns over the sub-region cannot be associated with a single climate index. An ensemble member (SIM48) captures the inter-annual variation of the observed temperaure patterns with high sycronization (η > 44%), much better than that of ensembles mean (η < 30%). SIM48 also captures adequately four of the spatial patterns in comparison to three captured by the ensembles mean. This indicates that, for better seasonal forecasts and more reliable future climate projections, the practice whereby an ensemble mean is based on uniformly averaging the members rather than the performance of individual ensemble members needs to be reviewed. Finally, the results of the study may be used to improve the perfomance of CAM over West Africa, thereby strengthening the on-going efforts to include CAM as part of multi-model forecasting system over West Africa.

Lawal, Kamoru A. (ORCID:0000000281988844)↗

NASA NTRS1980

Possible influence of solar rotation on tropospheric circulation

A large-scale structure observed in the photospheric magnetic field is carried out into the heliosphere by the solar wind. At Earth the resulting interplanetary magnetic field has polarity away from the Sun for several consecutive days followed by an abrupt reversal and several days with field polarity toward the Sun. Low-pressure troughs near the Gulf of Alaska appear to have significantly larger area when the interplanetary field is away from the Sun than when it is toward the Sun. This relation persisted during most of the winters of 1951 to 1973. Surface pressures around the Gulf of Alaska during some winters were in anti-phase for interplanetary field toward and away from the Sun. During the two days after a polarity reversal, the accuracy of the best weather forecasts for the continental United States appears to be significantly lower than at other times. Polarity reversals that are accompanied by energetic interplanetary conditions appear to be associated with a larger decrease in the area of the low pressure troughs.

Wilcox, J. M.↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Understanding the Vertical Slope of Mesoscale Snow Band Reflectivity Signatures

Mesoscale snow bands are frequently responsible for dumping large amounts of snow over a relatively small region and pose a considerable forecasting challenge. The ongoing NASA Investigation of Microphysics and Precipitation for Atlantic Coast-Threatening Snowstorms (IMPACTS) field campaign observed several instances of mesoscale snow bands during January and February of 2020 and 2022. These snow bands were sampled by a combination of airborne (NASA ER-2 and P-3) and ground-based remote sensing and in-situ instruments. Along-band cross sections of these snow bands reveal that many of them are vertically sloped. Our preliminary analysis into one of these snow bands suggests that the vertical slope is not maintained by isentropic lift and does not appear to be tied to horizontal deformation. A combined analysis of the reflectivity and wind retrievals from the ER-2 radars raises the possibility that these features could be produced by vertical wind shear layers deforming fall streaks into bands that extend hundreds of kilometers. The present study will focus on extending our preliminary analysis to additional cases and understanding the mechanisms that support these features using a combination of radar data, in-situ aircraft measurements, and numerical modeling.

Charles Helms↗