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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2020

Confirming the absence of nuclear warheads via passive gamma-ray measurements

Arms-control agreements between the United States and Russia negotiated after the end of the Cold War have imposed limits on the number of deployed strategic nuclear weapons. Verification of these agreements has relied on onsite inspections, sometimes supported by radiation detection techniques to confirm the absence of a nuclear warhead when ambiguities arise. So far, these measurements have sought to detect neutron emissions associated with the presence of plutonium, but they would be inadequate for uranium devices. In an effort to offer instruments that could be used to confirm the absence of both plutonium and uranium weapons, here we propose an inspection system that uses only passive gamma radiation detection techniques. Such a system would be particularly valuable for next-generation arms-control agreements that limit total numbers of weapons and would involve containerized items in storage. We conducted extensive Monte Carlo simulations to support the development of a verification protocol and detection algorithm. Here, we demonstrate the viability of the technique using standard laboratory check sources and MCNP simulations for simplified configurations of special nuclear material.

98 NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT, SAFEGUARDS, AND PHYSICAL P↗
DOE OSTI2026

Hydrogen Production Cost from Proton-Conducting Solid Oxide Electrolysis

Rigorous stakeholder-vetted techno-economic analysis (TEA) was conducted to estimate the cost of hydrogen (H 2 ) production using Proton-Conducting Solid Oxide (PSO) electrolysis. The analysis evaluates Current (2025) and Future (2035) technology cases at centralized plant scales of 50 and 500 metric tonnes per day (MTD), assuming electricity, water, and air as the only system inputs. Untaxed, unsubsidized levelized cost of hydrogen (LCOH) is projected to range from 2020 $\$$1.81 to $\$$2.47/kg H 2 at an electricity price of $\$$0.03/kWh and 97% capacity factor under Nth-of-a-kind (NOAK) deployment assumptions. Total installed capital cost was developed using bottom-up Design for Manufacture and Assembly (DFMA) stack cost modeling and detailed balance-of-plant estimates, including mechanical and electrical subsystems, installation, site preparation, engineering, and contingency. Stack performance assumptions include thermoneutral operation, degradation over time, and periodic replacement. LCOH was calculated using the Hydrogen Analysis (H2A) discounted cash flow model in constant 2020 dollars. Results indicate PSO electrolysis has potential for competitive hydrogen production costs under low-cost electricity and mature manufacturing conditions.

08 HYDROGEN↗
DOE OSTI2022

Building Initial Dynamic System Models for Digital Twins of the Cryogenic Moderator System at the ORNL Spallation Neutron Source

This work describes the initial development of dynamic system models of the cryogenic moderator system (CMS) of the Spallation Neutron Source (SNS) at ORNL as a part of the ORNL LDRD funded project Building TRANSFORM to Accelerate Digital Twin Applications for Nuclear Systems, LOIS 10563. The goal of the work is to start the dynamic system modeling effort with the end goal of using them for real-time applications as digital twins. The CMS is a cryogenic liquid hydrogen flow loop that provides moderation of the neutrons that are generated by the SNS. For optimal neutron production, the CMS needs to maintain a steady and controlled density of cryogenic hydrogen in the moderator section thus requiring precise temperature and pressure control. Due to the varied time scales and system characteristics, control of the system is complex, and diagnostics are also difficult. Difficulty in accessing the flow loop during operations, limited instrumentation and unknown design details of the equipment combine to make the case for having sophisticated digital twin models of the system. Operationally the CMS also provides a strong use case for digital twins due to the constant need of optimization and for troubleshooting/diagnostics. The large amount of data collected which are freely available for using in building the model and verifying and validating the model also makes it a great candidate for a proof-of-concept for digital twins. The project extends ORNL's capacity of development and implementation of the open-source dynamic system modeling tool TRANSFORM for engineering design and digital twin/real-time applications. Specific system configuration data for the CMS have been gathered and an initial dynamic model was created in the TRANSFORM library using Dymola as the solution platform. Models of increasing complexity are created to demonstrate the need for a multi-layered approach in digital twin modeling depending on the scale and phenomena being focused on. The dynamic modeling is shown to bring the dynamic operational aspects to the design process for systems as well as serve as a digital twin to the hardware and allow for models to be tuned and compared against real time operational data. These aims should help to push forward strategic goals of application of digital twins and increase the impact of ORNL systems modeling capabilities with TRANSFORM/Modelica for various advanced energy systems.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2026

Establishment of a Vertically Integrated Domestic Manufacturing Process for Production of Substrates Needed for Manufacture of Gas Diffusion Layers

In this project, AvCarb, LLC evaluated the baseline performance metrics of commercial carbon veils and their corresponding Gas Diffusion Layers (GDLs) with the goal of establishing an optimized, vertically integrated production system for wet-laid nonwoven substrates used in gas diffusion media for electrochemical energy storage and conversion devices. Mechanical testing and microstructural characterization were conducted and used to develop a multiscale computational model capable of simulating and predicting the performance of GDLs in fuel cells. Although the project successfully generated foundational transport and modeling data, it was terminated prior to identifying the critical GDL design parameters necessary for full optimization. The program aimed to improve carbon veil fabrication through enhanced fiber dispersion, fiber-fiber adhesion control, and improved web formation, enabling the production of high-quality, uniform substrates. Simulations were intended to guide mixing and solution delivery system design and process conditions, followed by production-scale trials to evaluate fiber dispersion, web uniformity, and mechanical robustness. At full deployment, the proposed production line would have been capable of producing approximately 650,000 m² of carbon veil annually. This capability remains strategically important, as the United States currently lacks a domestic source of wet-laid nonwoven carbon substrates that satisfy the stringent quality requirements for fuel-cell GDLs and electrolyzers representing an ongoing supply-chain vulnerability. Beyond supply-chain benefits, the project established a robust benchmarking dataset for existing commercial carbon veils while advancing next-generation material concepts targeting improved performance and manufacturing consistency.

Olson, Cynthia Lemay↗
DOE OSTI2024

Project DarkStar: Vision for LLNL in 2030

DarkStar was a Strategic Initiative (FY2021-FY2024) to investigate applications of Artificial Intelligence (AI) and Machine Learning (ML) to scientific problems of complex hydrodynamics, shockwave physics and energetic materials. The research focused on physics and engineering design as a process that can be tremendously accelerated through merging AI with advanced physics simulation on exascale-class platforms, and to experimentally validate this revolutionary new approach through dynamic materials campaigns. A central thread of scientific inquiry was in the application of AI to enable human understanding of how to control hydrodynamic instability (which has impacts to areas such as inertial confinement fusion) via engineering features and time-dependent sources. Motivated by an unfinished line of research started by Dr. Johnny von Neumann, AI-enabled simulation approaches were developed that allowed DarkStar researchers to uncover several ground-breaking discoveries regarding hydrodynamic instability, including how to completely suppress Richtmyer-Meshkov instability (RMI). These S&T discoveries, along with other advances, have shown the way for an entirely new approach to time-dependent problems known as inverse design – the idea that complex systems can be developed directly from a final state that is to be achieved and resolve the initial design via satisfying several constraints simultaneously via AI/ML. Through experimental campaigns conducted across a wide range of facilities in the NNSA complex (the High Explosive Application Facility at LLNL, the Dynamic Compression Sector/Advanced Photon Source at Argonne National Lab, and Special Technologies Laboratory at MSTS) the radical new AI/ML approach to engineering complex material dynamics was verified, establishing a new field of study within the realm of shock physics. As advanced manufacturing capabilities continue to develop, the great importance of inverse design as a means to apply that technology effectively for NNSA missions will feature prominently over this decade. DarkStar has positioned NNSA as a world-leader in this newly emerging cross-disciplinary area of AI methods for advanced physics simulation and pioneered multiple novel approaches that have enabled the broader scientific community. By allowing us to see past the horizon, to 2030 and beyond, DarkStar has illuminated the vast potential of AI/ML to impact a wide range of new national security missions and, consequently, multiple areas of further research have already emerged across the NNSA and DOD complex.

42 ENGINEERING↗
NASA NTRS2010

Unique Education and Workforce Development for NASA Engineers

NASA engineers are some of the world's best-educated graduates, responsible for technically complex, highly significant scientific programs. Even though these professionals are highly proficient in traditional analytical competencies, there is a unique opportunity to offer continuing education that further enhances their overall scientific minds. With a goal of maintaining the Agency's passionate, "best in class" engineering workforce, the NASA Academy of Program/Project & Engineering Leadership (APPEL) provides educational resources encouraging foundational learning, professional development, and knowledge sharing. NASA APPEL is currently partnering with the scientific community's most respected subject matter experts to expand its engineering curriculum beyond the analytics and specialized subsystems in the areas of: understanding NASA's overall vision and its fundamental basis, and the Agency initiatives supporting them; sharing NASA's vast reservoir of engineering experience, wisdom, and lessons learned; and innovatively designing hardware for manufacturability, assembly, and servicing. It takes collaboration and innovation to educate an organization that possesses such a rich and important history~and a future that is of great global interest. NASA APPEL strives to intellectually nurture the Agency's technical professionals, build its capacity for future performance, and exemplify its core values~alJ to better enable NASA to meet its strategic vision~and beyond.

Forsgren, Roger C.↗
NASA NTRS2021

Future Model-Based Systems Engineering Vision and Strategy Bridge for NASA

A vision for the future of model-based systems engineering (MBSE) at NASA in 2029 and a strategy bridge towards that future are presented. Strategic thinking and leading change concepts were used to analyze reports and presentations on global trends and visionary thinking about the future of systems and digital engineering. The context, strategic time horizon, stakeholders, strategic challenges, strategic advantages, driving forces, and opportunities were considered. The analysis resulted in a future vision of MBSE that shows what NASA systems engineers and digital machines will do to perform rapid, extraordinary, and unprecedented missions. The NASA systems engineer, in this future vision, works with a global project team in a virtual and collaborative environment, engineers the system, and uses digital approaches as the routine and default way of working. The digital machines provide data-driven and automated mission designs; have a backbone of program and project management, systems engineering, and product life-cycle management; and are a knowledge-sharing infrastructure. The NASA systems engineer and the systems engineering team are envisioned to use digital machines to plan and perform rapid exploration missions, develop a digital twin that lasts across the life cycle, and develop enduring and adaptable systems. NASA has an engineering enterprise and a life-cycle management framework that endure, adapt, and respond. A strategy bridge based on the Baldrige Criteria for Performance Excellence Framework and lessons learned from a recent MBSE initiative illuminates a way forward from today to this desired future. The bridge lays out a strategy for leaders and recommends investments of today for immediate benefits and for benefits in 2029.

model-based systems engineering, digital engineeri↗
DOE OSTI2026

Will cities keep getting hotter? The interplay of urban expansion and greening reshapes future urban heat trajectories

Urban heat islands (UHIs) pose growing risks to public health, infrastructure, and resilience. While often assumed to intensify with urban growth, dynamic changes in urban expansion and vegetation greenness complicate UHI trajectories, which remain poorly understood. This study investigated the interplay of urban expansion and greenness change on UHI spatial profile across 36 Chinese megacities during 2003–2018 using multiple satellite products. We introduce a framework that classifies urban areas into four dynamic development pathways based on impervious surface area (ISA) and enhanced vegetation index (EVI) trends: urbanized-greening, urbanized-browning, urbanizing-greening (UingG), and urbanizing-browning (UingB). While most urbanized centers exhibited greening driven by targeted initiatives and urbanizing suburbs showed browning due to vegetation loss, about 30% urban areas showed the reverse pattern, revealing overlooked complexity in urban development. Urban expansion and browning strengthened UHI in suburban areas, whereas greening initiatives mitigated UHI in urban center and mitigated UHI enhancement in suburban areas. Slowed warming in urban centers together with accelerated warming in suburban areas flattened the temperature gradient between urban centers and suburbs. This dynamic expanded the spatial extent of elevated temperatures and reshaped the classic urban-to-rural UHI profile into a flatter form. In UingB areas, UHI intensification was jointly driven by increase in ISA, vegetation loss, and their interaction, while in UingG areas, EVI increases and a negative interaction together offset over half of the warming driven by urban expansion. These findings reveal that UHI evolution is not unidirectional but depends on localized urbanization and greening dynamics, offering pathways for strategic heat mitigation.

greening initiative↗
DOE OSTI2020

Enhanced production of taxadiene in Saccharomyces cerevisiae

Cost-effective production of the highly effective anti-cancer drug, paclitaxel (Taxol ® ), remains limited despite growing global demands. Low yields of the critical taxadiene precursor remains a key bottleneck in microbial production. In this study, the key challenge of poor taxadiene synthase (TASY) solubility in S. cerevisiae was revealed, and the strains were strategically engineered to relieve this bottleneck. Multi-copy chromosomal integration of TASY harbouring a selection of fusion solubility tags improved taxadiene titres 22-fold, up to 57 ± 3 mg/L at 30 °C at microscale, compared to expressing a single episomal copy of TASY. The scalability of the process was highlighted through achieving similar titres during scale up to 25 mL and 250 mL in shake flask and bioreactor cultivations, respectively at 20 and 30 °C. Maximum taxadiene titres of 129 ± 15 mg/L and 127 mg/L were achieved through shake flask and bioreactor cultivations, respectively, of the optimal strain at a reduced temperature of 20 °C. The results of this study highlight the benefit of employing a combination of molecular biology and bioprocess tools during synthetic pathway development, with which TASY activity was successfully improved by 6.5-fold compared to the highest literature titre in S. cerevisiae cell factories.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2004

Office of Biological and Physical Research: Overview Transitioning to the Vision for Space Exploration

Viewgraphs on NASA's transition to its vision for space exploration is presented. The topics include: 1) Strategic Directives Guiding the Human Support Technology Program; 2) Progressive Capabilities; 3) A Journey to Inspire, Innovate, and Discover; 4) Risk Mitigation Status Technology Readiness Level (TRL) and Countermeasures Readiness Level (CRL); 5) Biological And Physical Research Enterprise Aligning With The Vision For U.S. Space Exploration; 6) Critical Path Roadmap Reference Missions; 7) Rating Risks; 8) Current Critical Path Roadmap (Draft) Rating Risks: Human Health; 9) Current Critical Path Roadmap (Draft) Rating Risks: System Performance/Efficiency; 10) Biological And Physical Research Enterprise Efforts to Align With Vision For U.S. Space Exploration; 11) Aligning with the Vision: Exploration Research Areas of Emphasis; 12) Code U Efforts To Align With The Vision For U.S. Space Exploration; 13) Types of Critical Path Roadmap Risks; and 14) ISS Human Support Systems Research, Development, and Demonstration. A summary discussing the vision for U.S. space exploration is also provided.

Crouch, Roger↗
NASA NTRS2007

NASA's RPS Design Reference Mission Set for Solar System Exploration

NASA's 2006 Solar System Exploration (SSE) Strategic Roadmap identified a set of proposed large Flagship, medium New Frontiers and small Discovery class missions, addressing key exploration objectives. These objectives respond to the recommendations by the National Research Council (NRC), reported in the SSE Decadal Survey. The SSE Roadmap is down-selected from an over-subscribed set of missions, called the SSE Design Reference Mission (DRM) set. Missions in the Flagship and New Frontiers classes can consider Radioisotope Power Systems (RPSs), while small Discovery class missions are not permitted to use them, due to cost constraints. In line with the SSE DRM set and the SSE Roadmap missions, the RPS DRM set represents a set of missions, which can be enabled or enhanced by RPS technologies. At present, NASA has proposed the development of two new types of RPSs. These are the Multi-Mission Radioisotope Thermoelectric Generator (MMRTG), with static power conversion; and the Stirling Radioisotope Generator (SRG), with dynamic conversion. Advanced RPSs, under consideration for possible development, aim to increase specific power levels. In effect, this would either increase electric power generation for the same amount of fuel, or reduce fuel requirements for the same power output, compared to the proposed MMRTG or SRG. Operating environments could also influence the design, such that an RPS on the proposed Titan Explorer would use smaller fins to minimize heat rejection in the extreme cold environment; while the Venus Mobile Explorer long-lived in-situ mission would require the development of a new RPS, in order to tolerate the extreme hot environment, and to simultaneously provide active cooling to the payload and other electric components. This paper discusses NASA's SSE RPS DRM set, in line with the SSE DRM set. It gives a qualitative assessment regarding the impact of various RPS technology and configuration options on potential mission architectures, which could support NASA's RPS technology development planning, and provide an understanding of fuel need trades over the next three decades.

solar system↗
DOE OSTI2025

Retrospective on decadal progress of the NOAA/NPS ocean noise reference station network

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), in partnership with the U.S. National Park Service (NPS), established the Ocean Noise Reference Station Network (NRS) in 2014 as a foundational component of NOAA’s Ocean Noise Strategy. This long-term effort aims to characterize baseline ocean ambient sound conditions across diverse marine environments and to inform management of noise impacts on protected species and habitats within U.S. waters. The NRS is now composed of 13 autonomous passive acoustic monitoring stations strategically positioned across the U.S. Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ), extending from Arctic regions to tropical waters in depths ranging from 33 to 4,790 m. These locations include several National Marine Sanctuaries and National Parks, such as the recently designated Chumash Heritage National Marine Sanctuary off the coast of California. Each station is equipped to continuously sample low-frequency underwater sound at five kHz, enabling the detection of anthropogenic, geophysical, and biological acoustic signals. To date the network has sampled over 72 years of calibrated acoustic data. The spatial breadth and consistent methodology of the NRS allow for comparative acoustic assessments across diverse marine ecosystems. In addition to applied research functions, the NRS has served as a platform for education and training, offering opportunities for students to develop skills for marine science and data analysis. Looking forward, the NRS project team is focused on network expansion, improved data delivery, and broader integration with collaborative scientific initiatives. NRS recordings are being archived in partnership with NOAA’s National Centers for Environmental Information to enhance accessibility and long-term utility. Efforts are underway to develop standardized metadata and summary products to accompany raw audio files, making the data more usable for a wide range of stakeholders in the ocean science community. The NRS is evolving into a fully integrated national framework for ocean sound monitoring that supports scientific inquiry, management decision-making, national security interests, and public engagement with ocean acoustic environments.

Long-term monitoring↗
NASA NTRS1995

Sustaining Space Systems for Strategic and Theater Operations: A Study Perspective

Our Desert Storm experience in the tactical utility of DoD space vehicles demonstrated that DoD's investment in space technology can provide a significant military advantage during times of crisis and war. The satellites what gave us such marvelous intelligence in locating, tracking, and enabling the successful attack of key targets resulted in a spectacular military success. However, without an on-orbit servicing capability, the fuel consumed to maneuver these satellites into position over the battlefield shortened their useful life by as much as two years. During the 1970's and 1980's, the Air Force aggressively pursued an or-orbit support capability to support and maintain it's space-based assets. However, in the early 1990's, budgetary and political priorities canceled the programs that would have made this a reality. Realizing that a future decision may be made to re-investigate on-orbit support, the United States Space Command (USSPACECOM) sponsored a study to document efforts undertaken by the Air Force during the 1970's and 1980's in developing strategies and actions to achieve certain tenets of on-orbit support. The study represents an attempt to gather, review, summarize, and archive the most important research performed during this period. It will serve as a historical perspective upon which to base future research and development activities. This paper presents an overview of that study.

McCoy, Walbert↗
NASA NTRS2015

Identifying Key Issues and Potential Solutions for Integrated Arrival, Departure, Surface Operations by Surveying Stakeholder Preferences

NASA's Aeronautics Research Mission Directorate (ARMD) collaborates with the FAA and industry to provide concepts and technologies that enhance the transition to the next-generation air-traffic management system (NextGen). To facilitate this collaboration, ARMD has a series of Airspace Technology Demonstration (ATD) sub-projects that develop, demonstrate, and transitions NASA technologies and concepts for implementation in the National Airspace System (NAS). The second of these sub-projects, ATD-2, is focused on the potential benefits to NAS stakeholders of integrated arrival, departure, surface (IADS) operations. To determine the project objectives and assess the benefits of a potential solution, NASA surveyed NAS stakeholders to understand the existing issues in arrival, departure, and surface operations, and the perceived benefits of better integrating these operations. NASA surveyed a broad cross-section of stakeholders representing the airlines, airports, air-navigation service providers, and industry providers of NAS tools. The survey indicated that improving the predictability of flight times (schedules) could improve efficiency in arrival, departure, and surface operations. Stakeholders also mentioned the need for better strategic and tactical information on traffic constraints as well as better information sharing and a coupled collaborative planning process that allows stakeholders to coordinate IADS operations. To assess the impact of a potential solution, NASA sketched an initial departure scheduling concept and assessed its viability by surveying a select group of stakeholders for a second time. The objective of the departure scheduler was to enable flights to move continuously from gate to cruise with minimal interruption in a busy metroplex airspace environment using strategic and tactical scheduling enhanced by collaborative planning between airlines and service providers. The stakeholders agreed that this departure concept could improve schedule predictability and suggested several key attributes that were necessary to make the concept successful. The goals and objectives of the planned ATD-2 sub-project will incorporate the results of this stakeholder feedback.

integrated arrival/departure/surface operations↗
NASA NTRS2026

Uranus Orbiter and Probe: Mission Challenges and Concept Updates Since the Origins, Worlds, and Life Decadal Survey

Origins, Worlds, and Life: Planetary Science and Astrobiology in the Next Decade identified a Uranus Orbiter and Probe as the highest-priority strategic mission for the decade 2023–2032, as it enables broad cross-disciplinary science in the largely unexplored Uranian system. The mission architecture evaluated by the Decadal Survey was a singular proof of concept demonstrating that a moderately instrumented mission could deliver Decadal-priority science with a reduced cost and risk posture by leveraging existing technologies to the maximum extent possible. With revised assumptions since the Decadal, we have explored a large trade space including launch vehicles, propulsion options, cruise trajectories, available power sources, viable concept of operations, and science data return for later launch dates without a Jupiter gravity assist. The most repeatable trajectory solutions employ either a commercially derived solar electric propulsion (SEP) transfer stage or the availability of a more capable launch vehicle under development, such as the SpaceX Starship. Orbit insertion has been moved farther from Uranus to acknowledge the remaining uncertainty in Uranian ring structure. A streamlined, SEP-adaptable, orbiter design was developed using two Next Gen Radioisotope Thermoelectric Generators, and the probe design was matured, reducing the entry gravitational acceleration, and assuming the largest Decadal-recommended payload to provide margin for future instrument selections. With this updated design, we also constructed a detailed concept of operations for three representative science cases, returning 13–15 Gbit of science data and spacecraft telemetry per ∼34 day orbit.

Amy A Simon↗
DOE OSTI2023

Summary Analysis of Different Offshore Wind Capacity Density Drivers in Proposed U.S. Projects and Impacts on Progress Towards State and Federal Deployment Targets

Understanding the density of offshore wind development - or the "capacity density" - is important for state and federal offshore wind planning efforts and to track progress towards policy goals. NREL has traditionally assumed a capacity density of 3 megawatts per square kilometer (MW/km2) when estimating the U.S. project pipeline (Musial et al. 2022), but capacity densities for existing European offshore wind farms ranged from 2-19 MW/km2 (Borrmann et al. 2018). We track the expected capacity densities of the proposed U.S. projects in the East Coast and make an analysis by state and by developer to identify what are the capacity density norms in the industry and whether the state in which the development efforts are taking place has some impact on capacity density. We also analyze the effects of the area occupied by station keeping systems on capacity density for lease areas dedicated to floating projects and provide a list of main capacity density drivers. This summary analysis sets a baseline to study how different capacity density drivers could impact the progress towards state and federal deployment targets. Given the currently delineated Renewable Energy Areas in the Outer Continental Shelf (OCS) and the basis from the summary analysis, we estimate the expected offshore wind deployment over time federally and by state and compare it to the state and federal deployment targets. The proposed analysis helps identify gaps and needs to meet state and federal targets, which provides sufficient information to propose strategic supply chain and policy planning with the objective of meeting deployment goals.

capacity density↗
NASA NTRS1981

Advanced aircraft engine materials trends

Recent activities of the Lewis Research Center are reviewed which are directed toward developing materials for rotating hot section components for aircraft gas turbines. Turbine blade materials activities are directed at increasing metal temperatures approximately 100 C compared to current directionally solidified alloys by use of oxide dispersion strengthening or tungsten alloy wire reinforcement of nickel or iron base superalloys. The application of thermal barrier coatings offers a promise of increasing gas temperatures an additional 100 C with current cooling technology. For turbine disk alloys, activities are directed toward reducing the cost of turbine disks by 50 percent through near net shape fabrication of prealloyed powders as well as towards improved performance. In addition, advanced alloy concepts and fabrication methods for dual alloy disks are being studied as having potential for improving the life of future high performance disks and reducing the amount of strategic materials required in these components.

Dreshfield, R. L.↗
DOE OSTI2023

Predictive performance of multi-model ensemble forecasts of COVID-19 across European nations

Background: Short-term forecasts of infectious disease burden can contribute to situational awareness and aid capacity planning. Based on best practice in other fields and recent insights in infectious disease epidemiology, one can maximise the predictive performance of such forecasts if multiple models are combined into an ensemble. Here, we report on the performance of ensembles in predicting COVID-19 cases and deaths across Europe between 08 March 2021 and 07 March 2022. Methods: We used open-source tools to develop a public European COVID-19 Forecast Hub. We invited groups globally to contribute weekly forecasts for COVID-19 cases and deaths reported by a standardised source for 32 countries over the next 1–4 weeks. Teams submitted forecasts from March 2021 using standardised quantiles of the predictive distribution. Each week we created an ensemble forecast, where each predictive quantile was calculated as the equally-weighted average (initially the mean and then from 26th July the median) of all individual models’ predictive quantiles. We measured the performance of each model using the relative Weighted Interval Score (WIS), comparing models’ forecast accuracy relative to all other models. We retrospectively explored alternative methods for ensemble forecasts, including weighted averages based on models’ past predictive performance. Results: Over 52 weeks, we collected forecasts from 48 unique models. We evaluated 29 models’ forecast scores in comparison to the ensemble model. We found a weekly ensemble had a consistently strong performance across countries over time. Across all horizons and locations, the ensemble performed better on relative WIS than 83% of participating models’ forecasts of incident cases (with a total N=886 predictions from 23 unique models), and 91% of participating models’ forecasts of deaths (N=763 predictions from 20 models). Across a 1–4 week time horizon, ensemble performance declined with longer forecast periods when forecasting cases, but remained stable over 4 weeks for incident death forecasts. In every forecast across 32 countries, the ensemble outperformed most contributing models when forecasting either cases or deaths, frequently outperforming all of its individual component models. Among several choices of ensemble methods we found that the most influential and best choice was to use a median average of models instead of using the mean, regardless of methods of weighting component forecast models. Conclusions: Our results support the use of combining forecasts from individual models into an ensemble in order to improve predictive performance across epidemiological targets and populations during infectious disease epidemics. Our findings further suggest that median ensemble methods yield better predictive performance more than ones based on means. Our findings also highlight that forecast consumers should place more weight on incident death forecasts than incident case forecasts at forecast horizons greater than 2 weeks. Funding: AA, BH, BL, LWa, MMa, PP, SV funded by National Institutes of Health (NIH) Grant 1R01GM109718, NSF BIG DATA Grant IIS-1633028, NSF Grant No.: OAC-1916805, NSF Expeditions in Computing Grant CCF-1918656, CCF-1917819, NSF RAPID CNS-2028004, NSF RAPID OAC-2027541, US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention 75D30119C05935, a grant from Google, University of Virginia Strategic Investment Fund award number SIF160, Defense Threat Reduction Agency (DTRA) under Contract No. HDTRA1-19-D-0007, and respectively Virginia Dept of Health Grant VDH-21-501-0141, VDH-21-501-0143, VDH-21-501-0147, VDH-21-501-0145, VDH-21-501-0146, VDH-21-501-0142, VDH-21-501-0148. AF, AMa, GL funded by SMIGE - Modelli statistici inferenziali per governare l'epidemia, FISR 2020-Covid-19 I Fase, FISR2020IP-00156, Codice Progetto: PRJ-0695. AM, BK, FD, FR, JK, JN, JZ, KN, MG, MR, MS, RB funded by Ministry of Science and Higher Education of Poland with grant 28/WFSN/2021 to the University of Warsaw. BRe, CPe, JLAz funded by Ministerio de Sanidad/ISCIII. BT, PG funded by PERISCOPE European H2020 project, contract number 101016233. CP, DL, EA, MC, SA funded by European Commission - Directorate-General for Communications Networks, Content and Technology through the contract LC-01485746, and Ministerio de Ciencia, Innovacion y Universidades and FEDER, with the project PGC2018-095456-B-I00. DE., MGu funded by Spanish Ministry of Health / REACT-UE (FEDER). DO, GF, IMi, LC funded by Laboratory Directed Research and Development program of Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) under project number 20200700ER. DS, ELR, GG, NGR, NW, YW funded by National Institutes of General Medical Sciences (R35GM119582; the content is solely the responsibility of the authors and does not necessarily represent the official views of NIGMS or the National Institutes of Health). FB, FP funded by InPresa, Lombardy Region, Italy. HG, KS funded by European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control. IV funded by Agencia de Qualitat i Avaluacio Sanitaries de Catalunya (AQuAS) through contract 2021-021OE. JDe, SMo, VP funded by Netzwerk Universitatsmedizin (NUM) project egePan (01KX2021). JPB, SH, TH funded by Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF; grant 05M18SIA). KH, MSc, YKh funded by Project SaxoCOV, funded by the German Free State of Saxony. Presentation of data, model results and simulations also funded by the NFDI4Health Task Force COVID-19 ( https://www.nfdi4health.de/task-force-covid-19-2 ) within the framework of a DFG-project (LO-342/17-1). LP, VE funded by Mathematical and Statistical modelling project (MUNI/A/1615/2020), Online platform for real-time monitoring, analysis and management of epidemic situations (MUNI/11/02202001/2020); VE also supported by RECETOX research infrastructure (Ministry of Education, Youth and Sports of the Czech Republic: LM2018121), the CETOCOEN EXCELLENCE (CZ.02.1.01/0.0/0.0/17-043/0009632), RECETOX RI project (CZ.02.1.01/0.0/0.0/16-013/0001761). NIB funded by Health Protection Research Unit (grant code NIHR200908). SAb, SF funded by Wellcome Trust (210758/Z/18/Z).

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗