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Quantum-Assisted Variational Segmentation for Image-to-Image Wildfire Detection Using Satellite Data

The quantum computing community has been searching for suitable applications to demonstrate the potential of near-term quantum devices. Quantum machine learning is a potential candidate, particularly using models that cannot be efficiently simulated with classical computers [1, 2]. This work focuses on a transition phase of quantum computers where the quantum machine learning model is still simulable classically but projected not to be simulable as the size of the model grows. Ultimately quantum computers may have advantages for high-dimensional real-world problems. Due to the limited number of qubits in current noisy intermediate-scale quantum (NISQ) devices, the direct application of quantum computers in high dimensional data is not feasible. To remedy this problem, an encoder-decoder architecture can be utilized. The encoder model would transform the high-dimensional data into a compact representation, to a level that small quantum computers can be used today (or in the near future), and the decoder would take the quantum processed outputs back to the high-dimensional space. Addressing the two challenges of quantum machine learning, this work investigates a hybrid supervised generative model with a quantum Ising Born machine embedded as the latent distribution. The model contains four main parts (Figure 1.a.): (1) a U-NET architecture responsible for learning segmentation flow, (2) a Prior network responsible for learning an encoded latent distribution of the input data, (3) a Born machine which represents the latent distribution, and (4) a Posterior network in charge of learning the joint encoded latent distribution of inputs and target data. The initial model, proposed by [3], is optimized by (1) maximizing the overlap of the prior and posterior latent distributions, and (2) minimizing the segmentation loss. The proposed model is designed to be investigated in a simulation environment applied to the real-world application of wildfire segmentation. Specifically, the model is designed to solve the patchy wildfire segmentations of Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) by taking the MODIS observations and using Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite’s (VIIRS) consistent wildfire product as the target. The model solves patchy wildfire segmentations and provides insight into the epistemic errors sourced from model variation. The model utilizes the Born machine as a QUBO solver to represent the latent space as a Bernoulli distribution. The proposed configuration allows the variational segmentation model to leverage the true quantum probabilistic nature and derive a more expressive latent configuration, increasing the model performance in describing wildfire segmentations. The quantum probabilistic information of the Born machine is directly incorporated in the Kullback-Leibler divergence loss in the prior and posterior distributions, forcing the Bernoulli latent distribution to maximize the overlap of input and joint input-target distributions. The proposed model is then trained and compared with a baseline only consisting of direct Bernoulli latent distribution with no Born machine representing the latent space. The models are evaluated based on the segmentation metrics, such as precision, recall, intersect of union, with uncertainty boundaries accounting for the stochastic nature of the model. Our findings show that even in low latent-dimensional space (due to the limit in computational power of the classical quantum simulator), we are able to effectively capture the latent representation and hence the model performs better than the baseline. The findings are a projection for scaling the model into higher dimensional latent space with the Born machine surpassing the baseline performance. Figure 1. Sub-figure (a) demonstrates the architecture for the training phase. The model consists of a Prior and Posterior network that encode inputs and joint input-target data into compact representations, respectively. The Born machine represents the latent distribution, and the U-NET branch learns the segmentation patterns of the data. The stochasticity is introduced to the U-NET through its last layer to create meaningful but stochastic segmentations. Sub-figure (b) represents the inference phase where the model takes the stochastic behavior from the prior network and injects that into the U-NET. Each attempt of inference will generate different but similar segmentations from the same distribution of the wildfire event. REFERENCES [1] Coyle, B., Mills, D., Danos, V., & Kashefi, E. (2020). The Born supremacy: quantum advantage and training of an Ising Born machine. npj Quantum Information, 6(1), 1-11. [2] Liu, J. G., & Wang, L. (2018). Differentiable learning of quantum circuit born machines. Physical Review A, 98(6), 062324. [3] Kohl, S., Romera-Paredes, B., Meyer, C., De Fauw, J., Ledsam, J. R., Maier-Hein, K., ... & Ronneberger, O. (2018). A probabilistic u-net for segmentation of ambiguous images. Advances in neural information processing systems, 31.

quantum machine learning↗

Exact Gaussian processes for massive datasets via non-stationary sparsity-discovering kernels

Abstract A Gaussian Process (GP) is a prominent mathematical framework for stochastic function approximation in science and engineering applications. Its success is largely attributed to the GP’s analytical tractability, robustness, and natural inclusion of uncertainty quantification. Unfortunately, the use of exact GPs is prohibitively expensive for large datasets due to their unfavorable numerical complexity of $$O(N^3)$$ O ( N 3 ) in computation and $$O(N^2)$$ O ( N 2 ) in storage. All existing methods addressing this issue utilize some form of approximation—usually considering subsets of the full dataset or finding representative pseudo-points that render the covariance matrix well-structured and sparse. These approximate methods can lead to inaccuracies in function approximations and often limit the user’s flexibility in designing expressive kernels. Instead of inducing sparsity via data-point geometry and structure, we propose to take advantage of naturally-occurring sparsity by allowing the kernel to discover—instead of induce—sparse structure. The premise of this paper is that the data sets and physical processes modeled by GPs often exhibit natural or implicit sparsities, but commonly-used kernels do not allow us to exploit such sparsity. The core concept of exact, and at the same time sparse GPs relies on kernel definitions that provide enough flexibility to learn and encode not only non-zero but also zero covariances. This principle of ultra-flexible, compactly-supported, and non-stationary kernels, combined with HPC and constrained optimization, lets us scale exact GPs well beyond 5 million data points.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Coffee supply chain planning under climate change

The growing demand but uncertain supply makes the sustainability of the coffee industry a shared concern for all participants along the coffee supply chain. This study proposed a decision-making model that comprises the cultivation management, including shade management and annual agriculture management, and the supply chain logistics. A two-stage stochastic program is presented and used within a rolling horizon scheme that periodically updates input data information to deal with uncertainty associated with future climate scenarios. The program minimizes the total expected cost of the entire supply chain of arabica coffee. The study applied the model to the real case study of arabica coffee bean supply to the U.S. market, trying to answer whether arabica coffee supply can meet the U.S. demand from 2022 to 2050 and how to best mitigate any shortage through corporate-farmer partnerships. The results show that the coffee supply will have a 3% shortage in the future; medium-level shade management and more irrigation and fertilization are possible mitigation strategies. These results demonstrate the need for all participants to adopt suitable technologies for the sustainability of global coffee supply chains together.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Special Analysis: Impact of Updated GSA Flow Model on E-Area Low-Level Waste Facility Groundwater Performance

In March 2018, the Savannah River National Laboratory (SRNL) notified Solid Waste Management (SWM) of new information that could potentially impact groundwater (GW) disposal limits and possibly require temporary protective measures (Crowley 2018). GW flow directions in the E-Area Low-Level Waste Facility (LLWF) Slit Trenches (STs), Engineered Trenches (ETs), and the Low Activity Waste Vault (LAWV) have notably changed in the new 2018 General Separations Area (GSA) flow model (Flach 2018a). The 2018 GSA flow model had been updated using 20 years of new hydrologic field data and model calibration methods that employed mathematical optimization software. It was later determined that the primary reason for the change in GW flow directions was due to the influence of low permeability caps that had been placed over the Old Burial Grounds and the Low Level Radioactive Waste Disposal Facility (LLRWDF). Updated flow directions in the model produce a higher degree of plume overlap for disposal units (DU’s) in the southeastern portion of E-Area than had been predicted in the 2008 E-Area LLWF Performance Assessment (PA). SWM and SRNL outlined the scope for this Special Analysis (SA) and proposed a set of interim measures (IM’s) to protect trench operations from exceeding Performance Objectives (PO’s) during the preparation of this SA, both of which were approved by the SWM Performance Assessment Review Committee (PARC) (Mooneyhan 2018).

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

High-resolution radiation detection using Ni/SiO 2 /n-4H-SiC vertical metal-oxide-semiconductor capacitor

In this article, we demonstrate the radiation detection performance of vertical metal-oxide-semiconductor (MOS) capacitors fabricated on 20 μm thick n-4H-SiC epitaxial layers with the highest energy resolution ever reported. The 100 nm SiO2 layer was achieved on the Si face of n-4H-SiC epilayers using dry oxidation in air. The Ni/SiO2/n-4H-SiC MOS detectors not only demonstrated an excellent energy resolution of 0.42% (ΔE/E 100) for 5.48 MeV alpha particles but also caused a lower enhancement in the electronic noise components of the spectrometer compared with that observed for the best high-resolution Schottky barrier detectors. The MOS detectors also exhibited a high charge collection efficiency (CCE) of 96% at the optimized operating bias despite the presence of the oxide layer. A drift-diffusion model applied to the CCE vs gate bias voltage data revealed a minority (hole) carrier diffusion length of 24 μm. Capacitance mode deep level transient spectroscopy (C-DLTS) scans in the temperature range 84–800 K were carried out to identify the resolution limiting electrically active defects. Interestingly, the C-DLTS spectra revealed both positive and negative peaks, indicating the simultaneous presence of electron (majority) and hole (minority) trap centers. It has been inferred that at the steady-state bias for the C-DLTS measurement, the MOS detector operates in the inversion mode at certain device temperatures, causing holes to populate the minority trap centers and, hence, manifests minority carrier peaks as well.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

The compressed state Kalman filter for nonlinear state estimation: Application to large-scale reservoir monitoring

Reservoir monitoring aims to provide snapshots of reservoir conditions and their uncertainties to assist operation management and risk analysis. These snapshots may contain millions of state variables, e.g., pressures and saturations, which can be estimated by assimilating data in real time using the Kalman filter (KF). However, the KF has a computational cost that scales quadratically with the number of unknowns, m, due to the cost of computing and storing the covariance and Jacobian matrices, along with their prod-ucts. The compressed state Kalman filter (CSKF) adapts the KF for solving large-scale monitoring problems. The CSKF uses N preselected orthogonal bases to compute an accurate rank-N approximation of the covari-ance that is close to the optimal spectral approximation given by SVD. The CSKF has a computational cost that scales linearly in m and uses an efficient matrix-free approach that propagates uncertainties using N + 1 forward model evaluations, where N << m. Here in this paper we present a generalized CSKF algorithm for nonlin-ear state estimation problems such as CO 2 monitoring. For simultaneous estimation of multiple types of state variables, the algorithm allows selecting bases that represent the variability of each state type. Through synthetic numerical experiments of CO 2 monitoring, we show that the CSKF can reproduce the Kal-man gain accurately even for large compression ratios (m/N). For a given computational cost, the CSKF uses a robust and flexible compression scheme that gives more reliable uncertainty estimates than the ensemble Kalman filter, which may display loss of ensemble variability leading to suboptimal uncertainty estimates.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Practical Insights on Applying Simulation-Based Control Methods in Experimental Studies

Advanced nuclear reactors are crucial to the future of energy both in the United States and around the globe. In contrast to the current operating fleet, they are characterized as being deployable in remote locations and able to operate in semi-autonomous or autonomous fashion. This leap forward necessitates a new reactor control paradigm. Because advanced nuclear reactors are still under development in the United States, the creation of new control methods to achieve autonomous operations has been based on systems modeling and simulation. However, an important factor in successfully deploying these new control methods is the ability to seamlessly transition from simulation environments to real-world settings. Control methods tested in both simulation and experimental settings need to be investigated in the context of advanced reactor applications. This work developed a series of simple controllers for Idaho National Laboratory (INL)’s Microreactor Applications Research Validation and Evaluation (MARVEL) microreactor operating in load-following scenarios. These controllers were tested in both simulation and experimental settings, and a comparative performance analysis was performed. The simulation tests leveraged the Control and Optimization Modular Modeling Application for Nuclear Deployment (COMMAND) software developed in a previous stage of the current effort, along with the MARVEL Reactor Excursion and Leak Analysis Program (RELAP5-3D) and Monte Carlo N-Particle (MCNP) models. The experimental tests leveraged the COMMAND software, MARVEL models, and the U.S. Department of Energy Microreactor Program’s Microreactor Automated Control System (MACS). MACS was developed to serve as a control method testbed. It was customized to mirror the MARVEL microreactor, and COMMAND enabled MACS to emulate the physics of MARVEL. The load-following controller was developed using the simulation platform, with efforts to emulate real systems by introducing actuator saturation and noise. These factors were incrementally accounted for in the controller design. After finalizing the controller design, it was implemented with the experimental setup. The experimental conditions tested included an initial test under conditions similar to the final simulation test, and two additional scenarios. The first scenario introduced additional actuator saturation to account for equipment aging over time, which was unknown to the controller. The second scenario introduced sensor delay, a phenomenon anticipated with the use of remote operations or wireless communication in advanced reactors. These tests revealed several notable differences. While the controller performed well in simulation, it exhibited several limitations when transitioning to hardware. The main challenges involved maintaining the steady-state target power, as evidenced by larger error values between the true reactor power and setpoint power, as well as persistent oscillations in controlled reactor power. These issues could lead to unacceptable transient conditions in real reactor testing. Introducing actuator aging and stochastic delays in the experimental setup significantly impacted controller performance, resulting in increased overshoot and undershoot, and exacerbated error and oscillations previously mentioned. These findings underscore the importance of experimental testbeds for testing and validating control methods, as controllers developed using only theory and/or simulation may perform unexpectedly when applied to actual hardware. This research emphasizes the need for an experimental testbed for achieving such validation.

46 - INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AN↗

Stochastic risk-sensitive market integration for renewable energy: Application to ocean wave power plants

With the expected increase of intermittent renewable energy resources on the electric power grid, short-term reserve markets can prove to be a critical reliability asset. This paper introduces and tests a potential market structure that includes a short-term reserve market for renewable resources where the realized energy is drawn within the bounds of the hourly capacity offered. The study presents a risk-aware stochastic model that determines, based on the day-ahead offer derived using a classic newsvendor formula, the best intraday offers for a renewable energy power plant. The stochastic approach takes into account the uncertainties of energy production and market prices. The proposed risk-sensitive model aims to maximize the renewable power plant's revenues and minimize potential risks of loss in a multi-product multi-timescale market setup. To demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed formulation, we study the case of a hypothetical 750-kW wave power plant coupled with energy storage. The study shows that the risk of profit loss is not uniformly distributed across the risk-aversion factor space. We also find that the introduction of the short-term reserve market results in a wider range of conditional value at risk while inducing 5% profit increase and a lower profit reduction across the risk range. In addition, the study reveals that the short-term reserve market is profitable for both the system operator and the wave energy power plant considered.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

PRIME: A bottom-up approach to probabilistic rule development

PRIME is a system to be used by an intelligent machine to allow it to operate in an abstract but uncertain (or stochastic) environment. It maintains a model of the effects of the machine's actions in the form of a rule base, which is induced from experience. This bottom-up approach to rule development allows the model to adapt to changes in the environment. Each rule consists of a condition under which the rule is active, an action, the effect of the action on the environment, and an estimate of the probability of this effect occurring. The effect probabilities are used to model the uncertainty in the environment, permitting multiple possible effects for a single action under a particular set of conditions. The objective of the intelligent machine is to satisfy user-specified goals with maximum probability of success. PRIME fulfills this requirement in two ways: it continuously updates the rule base with the most recent information, to ensure the validity of the model; and it generates plans which have the maximum probability of achieving the goals, based on the probability estimates in the rule base. PRIME is composed of three main processes: exploration, generalization, and planning. In exploration, the machine executes various randomly chosen actions, observes the effects on the environment, and updates the rule base accordingly. This process is used to develop the rule base in simulation, as well as to supplement the current knowledge during normal operation. Generalization is the procedure used to induce general rules from experience, which is encoded in the form of specific rules. These general rules extend the machine's knowledge to situations which have not been encountered yet, thereby increasing the capability of the machine to plan effectively. Planning is the process of constructing an optimal sequence of actions to satisfy a goal, using the rule base to predict the effects of these actions and to determine the probability of success of the plan. The rule representation and many other data structures were specifically chosen to maximize the efficiency of these processes. A simulated environment was designed to test the performance of PRIME. The results of experimentation were largely negative. The main problem was that the domain coverage of the rules was inadequate for the number of rules stored in the rule base, due to redundancies in general rules and numerous rules covering ineffective actions. It was determined that a more efficient generalization, and some form of goal-directed exploration, are necessary in order to solve most of the current deficiencies in PRIME.

Miller, Scott A.↗

A Feature-Based Stochastic Permeability of Shale: Part 1—Validation and Two-Phase Permeability in a Utica Shale Sample

Estimate of permeability plays a crucial role in flow-based studies of fractured tight-rocks. It is well known that most of the flow through tight-rocks (e.g., shales) is controlled by permeable features (e.g., fractures, laminations, etc.), and there is negligible flow through the matrix. However, current approaches in the literature to model permeability of tight-rocks do not account for such features present within the rock ranging from micro-scale to field-scale. Current permeability modeling approach assumes a single continuum without considering the presence of permeable features within the matrix (e.g., micro-fractures) or outside the matrix (e.g., natural fractures). Although the laboratory-measured permeability implicitly captures discrete features present in that sample (e.g., fractures, laminations, micro-fractures), most of the permeability models proposed for shale do not account for these features. Fracture permeability in the literature is typically modeled using an ideal slit assumption; however, this highly overestimates its permeability because fractures in real medium are non-ideal in terms of their porosity and tortuosity, which affect their permeability. Additionally, the transition zone between fracture and matrix also affects the permeability of fracture. Here in this study, part of a two-part series, a new method to predict permeability of fractured shale by discretizing the medium into matrix (inorganic and organic) and fractures is presented. New analytical expressions of permeability are derived to account for non-ideal nature of porous medium and two-phase flow in fractures. Rock feature in each cell of the grid is identified as one of the three elements (organic matter, inorganic matter, or fracture), and permeability of that cell is estimated using a suitable analytical expression. This method allows estimating permeability at any scale of interest and more robustly than by a pure analytical approach. The proposed method is validated against local and global-scale measurements on three fractured samples from laboratory. Finally, the method is used to predict two-phase flow permeability of supercritical CO 2 displacing water within a fracture in a Utica shale sample. The proposed two-phase flow permeability equations can be used as a quick analytical tool to predict relative permeability estimates of two-phase flow in fractured shale samples. In Part 2, the proposed method is used to estimate field-scale permeability through an optimization process that uses field-scale production and other readily available information.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

A stochastic approach to quantifying the blur with uncertainty estimation for high-energy X-ray imaging systems

One of the primary causes of blur in a high-energy X-ray imaging system is the shape and extent of the radiation source, or ‘spot’. It is important to be able to quantify the size of the spot as it provides a lower bound on the recoverable resolution for a radiograph, and penumbral imaging methods – which involve the analysis of blur caused by a structured aperture – can be used to obtain the spot’s spatial profile. We present a Bayesian approach for estimating the spot shape that, unlike variational methods, is robust to the initial choice of parameters. The posterior is obtained from a normal likelihood, which was constructed from a weighted least squares approximation to a Poisson noise model, and prior assumptions that enforce both smoothness and non-negativity constraints. A Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm is used to obtain samples from the target posterior, and the reconstruction and uncertainty estimates are the computed mean and variance of the samples, respectively. Lastly, synthetic data-sets are used to demonstrate accurate reconstruction, while real data taken with high-energy X-ray imaging systems are used to demonstrate applicability and feasibility.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Improving Sensorimotor Adaptation Following Long Duration Space Flight by Enhancing Vestibular Information Transfer

Crewmember adapted to the microgravity state may need to egress the vehicle within a few minutes for safety and operational reasons after gravitational transitions. The transition from one sensorimotor state to another consists of two main mechanisms: strategic and plastic-adaptive and have been demonstrated in astronauts returning after long duration space flight. Strategic modifications represent "early adaptation" - immediate and transitory changes in control that are employed to deal with short-term changes in the environment. If these modifications are prolonged then plastic-adaptive changes are evoked that modify central nervous system function, automating new behavioral responses. More importantly, this longer term adaptive recovery mechanism was significantly associated with their strategic ability to recover on the first day after return to Earth G. We are developing a method based on stochastic resonance to enhance information transfer by improving the brain's ability to detect vestibular signals (Vestibular Stochastic Resonance, VSR) especially when combined with balance training exercises such as sensorimotor adaptability (SA) training for rapid improvement in functional skill, for standing and mobility. This countermeasure to improve detection of vestibular signals is a stimulus delivery system that is wearable/portable providing low imperceptible levels of white noise based binaural bipolar electrical stimulation of the vestibular system (stochastic vestibular stimulation). To determine efficacy of vestibular stimulation on physiological and perceptual responses during otolith-canal conflicts and dynamic perturbations we have conducted a series of studies: We have shown that imperceptible binaural bipolar electrical stimulation of the vestibular system across the mastoids enhances balance performance in the mediolateral (ML) plane while standing on an unstable surface. We have followed up on the previous study showing VSR stimulation improved balance performance in both ML and anteroposterior planes while stimulating in the ML axis only. We have shown the efficacy of VSR stimulations on enhancing physiological and perceptual responses of whole-body orientation during low frequency perturbations (0.1 Hz) on the ocular motor system using a variable radius centrifuge on both physiological (using eye movements) and perceptual responses (using a joystick) to track imposed oscillations. The variable radius centrifuge provides a selective tilting sensation that is detectable only by the otolith organs providing conflicting information from the canal organs of the vestibular system (intra-vestibular conflict). These results indicate that VSR can improve performance in sensory conflict scenarios like that experienced during space flight. We have showed the efficacy of VSR stimulation to improve balance and locomotor control on subjects exposed to continuous, sinusoidal lateral motion of the support surface while walking on a treadmill while viewing perceptually matched linear optic flow. We have shown the safety of short term continuous use of up to 4 hours of VSR stimulation and its efficacy in improving balance and locomotor function in Parkinson's Disease patients. This technique for improving vestibular signal detection may thus provide additional information to improve strategic abilities. We hypothesize that VSR stimulation will act synergistically with SA training to improve adaptability by increased utilization of vestibular information and therefore serve to optimize and personalize the SA countermeasure prescription. This forms the basis of its usefulness both as a training modality and further help in significantly reducing the number of days required to recover functional performance to preflight levels after long duration space flight.

Mulavara, A. P.↗

Smoothing-based compressed state Kalman filter for joint state-parameter estimation: Applications in reservoir characterization and CO 2 storage monitoring

The operation of most engineered hydrogeological systems relies on simulating physical processes using numerical models with uncertain parameters and initial conditions. Predictions by such uncertain models can be greatly improved by Kalman-filter techniques that sequentially assimilate monitoring data. Each assimilation constitutes a nonlinear optimization, which is solved by linearizing an objective function about the model prediction and applying a linear correction to this prediction. However, if model parameters and initial conditions are uncertain, the optimization problem becomes strongly nonlinear and a linear correction may yield unphysical results. In this paper, we investigate the utility of one-step ahead smoothing, a variant of the traditional filtering process, to eliminate nonphysical results and reduce estimation artifacts caused by nonlinearities. Here, we present the smoothing-based compressed state Kalman filter (sCSKF), an algorithm that combines one step ahead smoothing, in which current observations are used to correct the state and parameters one step back in time, with a nonensemble covariance compression scheme, that reduces the computational cost by efficiently exploring the high-dimensional state and parameter space. Numerical experiments show that when model parameters are uncertain and the states exhibit hyperbolic behavior with sharp fronts, as in CO 2 storage applications, one-step ahead smoothing reduces overshooting errors and, by design, gives physically consistent state and parameter estimates. We compared sCSKF with commonly used data assimilation methods and showed that for the same computational cost, combining one step ahead smoothing and nonensemble compression is advantageous for real-time characterization and monitoring of large-scale hydrogeological systems with sharp moving fronts.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Stochastic Microgrid Scheduling With Chance‐Constrained Resilience Consideration

Traditionally, it is assumed that microgrids transition seamlessly from grid‐connected operation to islanded mode in the event of sudden main grid outages. In reality, the islanding process, especially unintentional islanding, is rarely seamless. Instead, it is subject to voltage and frequency fluctuations caused by the instantaneous disconnection of the point of common coupling (PCC) switch, variations in loads and renewable generation output and even the protection tripping of distributed energy resources (DERs). To mitigate these fluctuations and facilitate a smooth islanding process, we propose a stochastic microgrid scheduling model that incorporates chance‐constrained resilience measures. Specifically, the resilience measure is defined as the probability of successful islanding (PSI), that is, the probability that a microgrid can mitigate the generation‐demand imbalance caused by the disconnection of the PCC switch, variations in load and renewable generation and DER tripping. This measure is modelled using chance constraints. Unlike existing reliability and resilience indices, which typically neglect the possibility of microgrid/DER failure under extreme events and assume their survival while primarily focussing on reducing impact duration or magnitude, the proposed PSI‐based framework explicitly addresses microgrid and DER survival during the islanding transition. The formulated nonlinear chance constraints are approximated using a multiinterval approach and equivalently represented as a mixed‐integer linear programming (MILP) formulation. Case study results validate the proposed method, showing that the PSI estimation error is reduced to less than 8%, compared to approximately 28% with existing methods. Various sensitivity analyses on the DER tripping rate and PSI settings were performed to validate the robustness of the proposed method. In particular, the necessity of accounting for DER tripping in the PSI calculation was demonstrated.

chance constrained optimization↗

Preface to the Special Issue on TOUGH Symposium 2015

The TOUGH Symposium 2015 was held in Berkeley, California, September 28-30, 2015. The TOUGH family of codes, developed at the Energy Geosciences Division of Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL), is a suite of computer programs for the simulation of multiphase and multicomponent fluid and heat flows in porous and fractured media with applications in many geosciences fields, such as geothermal reservoir engineering, nuclear waste disposal, geological carbon sequestration, oil and gas reservoirs, gas hydrate research, vadose zone hydrology and environmental remediation. Since the first release in the 1980s, many modifications and enhancements have been continuously made to TOUGH and its various descendants (iTOUGH2, TOUGH+, TOUGH-MP, TOUGHREACT, TOUGH+HYDRATE, TMVOC...), at LBNL and elsewhere. Today, these codes are used worldwide in academia, government organizations and private companies in problems involving coupled hydrological, thermal, biogeochemical and geomechanical processes. The Symposia, organized every 2-3 years, bring together developers and users for an open exchange on recent code enhancements and applications. In 2015, the Symposium was attended by one hundred participants, representing thirty-four nationalities. This Special Issue in Computers & Geosciences gathers extended versions of selected Symposium proceedings related to (i) recent enhancements to the TOUGH family of codes and (ii) coupled flow and geomechanics processes modeling. In this special issue, a paper by Jung et al. provides a new base version of TOUGH, TOUGH3. This latest version addresses the computational robustness and efficiency needed for the increasing complexity of the simulated processes and the growing size of model domains. Moreover, it consolidates the serial and parallel versions into a single code, hence, inconsistencies between different versions are less likely to occur, and code maintenance and development become more efficient. Finsterle et al. present a review of the capabilities of iTOUGH2 and illustrate the workflow of an integrated simulation-optimization framework. Liu et al. present an approach to reduce the computational cost of performing Bayesian inverse modeling and demonstrate their approach using a synthetic experiment simulated with TOUGH2. Regarding the mesh generation process, the paper by Doughty presents a generalization of the grid-generation algorithm embedded in TOUGH2 (MESHMAKER) to create one-column grids with fractal dimension, useful for representing flow through fractures or highly heterogeneous media with fractal geometry, and also for inverse methods. Sentís and Gable present a module to interface the open source code Lagrit with TOUGH2, that assists in the processes of mesh generation and model setup, and that can be particularly useful for complex geometries and large models. Bonduà et al. present a pre-processing tool (VORO2MESH) that features a full 3D Voronoi approach for structured and unstructured grids, and an enhanced post-processor (TOUGH2Viewer) for the visualization of 3D Voronoi grids. The literature review shows that coupled fluid flow and geomechanics has gained increasing attention in the last years in many geosciences fields. In this context, several codes of the TOUGH family have been successfully coupled with geomechanics software. The paper by Rutqvist presents a review of some of these TOUGH-based geomechanics models, of which the TOUGH-FLAC simulator – presented for the first time in the TOUGH Symposium 2003 – is well-known worldwide and has been used in a large variety of applications, encompassing the application domains of the TOUGH codes. Blanco-Martín et al. present an extension of TOUGH-FLAC to the finite strain framework, motivated by the existence of large strains associated with rock salt deformation in the context of heat-generating nuclear waste disposal. Following a paper published in the Special Issue of the TOUGH Symposium 2012 in this journal, Kim et al. present the current status of the TOUGH-RSBN simulator for coupled hydro-mechanical modeling of hydraulic fracturing using a discrete fracture network approach, and present some validation and demonstration cases. Rinaldi and Nespoli present TOUGH-SEED, an injection-induced seismicity modeling approach using TOUGH2 and a geomechanics stochastic model, and apply it to the Basel EGS project. Finally, Rinaldi et al. use the PEST protocol implemented in iTOUGH2, combined with TOUGH-FLAC as the forward model, to perform inverse modeling for the In Salah CO2 demonstration site in Algeria. Using pore pressures and InSAR displacements as observations, this approach allows for a multi-physics joint inversion and takes advantage of the inverse capabilities of iTOUGH2 (parameter estimation, sensitivity analysis, uncertainty estimation …), applied to coupled fluid flow and geomechanics. On behalf of the members of the TOUGH Symposium 2015 Organizing Committee, I hope that this collection of papers will provide the readers of Computers & Geosciences with a recent view of the capabilities of the TOUGH family of codes, as well as with current modeling research domains in the geosciences. Last but not least, I would like to express my gratitude to all the reviewers who kindly contributed to this Special Issue, as well as the Journal staff who have made this publication possible.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

Advanced Control Systems for Wave Energy Converters

This submission contains several papers, a final report, descriptions of a theoretical framework for two types of control systems, and descriptions of eight real-time flap load control policies with the objective of assessing the potential improvement of annual average capture efficiency at a reference site on an MHK device developed by Resolute Marine Energy, Inc. (RME). The submission also contains an LCOE model that estimates the performance and related energy cost improvements that each advanced control system might provide and recommendations for improving DOE's LCOE model. The two types of control systems are for wave energy converters which transform data into commands that, in the case of RME's OWSC wave energy converter, provide real-time adjustments to damping forces applied to the prime mover via the power take-off system (PTO). The control theories developed were: 1) Model Predictive Control (MPC) or so-called "non-causal" control whereby sensors deployed seaward of a wave energy converter measure incoming wave characteristics and transmit that information to a data processor which issues commands to the PTO to adjust the damping force to an optimal value; and 2) "Causal" control which utilizes local sensors on the wave energy converter itself to transmit information to a data processor which then issues appropriate commands to the PTO. The two advanced control policies developed by Scruggs and Re Vision were then compared to a simple control policy, Coulomb damping, which was utilized by RME during the two rounds of ocean trials it had conducted prior to the commencement of this project. The project work plan initially included a provision for RME to conduct hardware-in-the-loop (HIL) testing of the data processors and configurations of valves, sensors and rectifiers needed to implement the two advanced control systems developed by Scruggs and Re Vision Consulting but the funding for that aspect of the project was cut at the conclusion of Budget Period 1. Accordingly, more work needs to be done to determine: a) means and feasibility of implementing real-time control; and b) added costs associated with such implementation taking into account estimated effects on system availability in addition to component costs.

16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗

Quantal diffusion approach for multinucleon transfer processes in the 58,64 Ni + 208 Pb reactions: Toward the production of unknown neutron-rich nuclei

In recent years, substantial efforts have been made for the study of multinucleon transfer reactions at energies around the Coulomb barrier both experimentally and theoretically, aiming at the production of unknown neutron-rich heavy nuclei. It is crucial to provide reliable theoretical predictions based on microscopic theories with sufficient predictive power. Purpose: This article aims to clarify the applicability of the quantal diffusion approach based on the stochastic mean-field (SMF) theory for multinucleon transfer processes. Isotope production cross sections are evaluated for the reactions of 64 Ni + 208 Pb at E c.m. = 268 MeV and 58 Ni + 208 Pb at E c.m. = 270 MeV and are compared with available experimental data. Methods: Three-dimensional time-dependent Hartree-Fock (TDHF) calculations are carried out for a range of initial orbital angular momenta with Skyrme SLy4d functional. Quantal diffusion equations, derived based on the SMF theory, for variances and covariance of neutron and proton numbers of reaction products are solved, with microscopic drift and diffusion coefficients obtained from time evolution of occupied single-particle orbitals in TDHF. Secondary de-excitation processes, both particle evaporation and fission, are simulated by a statistical compound-nucleus de-excitation model, gemini++. Dynamics of a fast isospin equilibration process followed by a slow drift toward the mass symmetry are commonly observed, as expected. Various reaction outcomes are evaluated, including average mass and charge numbers of reaction products, total kinetic energy loss (TKEL), scattering angle, contact time, and production cross sections for primary and secondary products. By comparing with the experimental data, we find that SMF and TDHF quantitatively reproduce experimental data for few-nucleon-transfer channels around the average values. In contrast, for many-nucleon-transfer channels, we find that the SMF approach provides much better description of the experimentally measured isotopic distributions. The results underline the importance of beyond-mean-field effects, especially one-body (mean-field) fluctuations and correlations, in describing multinucleon transfer processes. Moreover, through a combined analysis of SMF with a statistical model, gemini++, we find a significant contribution of transfer-induced fission, which is consistent with the experimental observation. In some cases, the SMF approach overestimates the isotopic width, requiring further improvements of the theoretical description. Possible ways to improve the description are discussed. The SMF approach is designed to describe the quantum many-body problem according to an ensemble of mean-field trajectories, taking into account part of many-body correlations in the description. As it requires feasible computational costs comparable to the ordinary TDHF approach, together with further model improvements, it will be a promising tool in the search for optimal reaction conditions to produce yet-unknown neutron-rich heavy nuclei through the multinucleon transfer reaction.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Automated Antenna Design with Evolutionary Algorithms

Current methods of designing and optimizing antennas by hand are time and labor intensive, and limit complexity. Evolutionary design techniques can overcome these limitations by searching the design space and automatically finding effective solutions. In recent years, evolutionary algorithms have shown great promise in finding practical solutions in large, poorly understood design spaces. In particular, spacecraft antenna design has proven tractable to evolutionary design techniques. Researchers have been investigating evolutionary antenna design and optimization since the early 1990s, and the field has grown in recent years as computer speed has increased and electromagnetic simulators have improved. Two requirements-compliant antennas, one for ST5 and another for TDRS-C, have been automatically designed by evolutionary algorithms. The ST5 antenna is slated to fly this year, and a TDRS-C phased array element has been fabricated and tested. Such automated evolutionary design is enabled by medium-to-high quality simulators and fast modern computers to evaluate computer-generated designs. Evolutionary algorithms automate cut-and-try engineering, substituting automated search though millions of potential designs for intelligent search by engineers through a much smaller number of designs. For evolutionary design, the engineer chooses the evolutionary technique, parameters and the basic form of the antenna, e.g., single wire for ST5 and crossed-element Yagi for TDRS-C. Evolutionary algorithms then search for optimal configurations in the space defined by the engineer. NASA's Space Technology 5 (ST5) mission will launch three small spacecraft to test innovative concepts and technologies. Advanced evolutionary algorithms were used to automatically design antennas for ST5. The combination of wide beamwidth for a circularly-polarized wave and wide impedance bandwidth made for a challenging antenna design problem. From past experience in designing wire antennas, we chose to constrain the evolutionary design to a monopole wire antenna. The results of the runs produced requirements-compliant antennas that were subsequently fabricated and tested. The evolved antenna has a number of advantages with regard to power consumption, fabrication time and complexity, and performance. Lower power requirements result from achieving high gain across a wider range of elevation angles, thus allowing a broader range of angles over which maximum data throughput can be achieved. Since the evolved antenna does not require a phasing circuit, less design and fabrication work is required. In terms of overall work, the evolved antenna required approximately three person-months to design and fabricate whereas the conventional antenna required about five. Furthermore, when the mission was modified and new orbital parameters selected, a redesign of the antenna to new requirements was required. The evolutionary system was rapidly modified and a new antenna evolved in a few weeks. The evolved antenna was shown to be compliant to the ST5 mission requirements. It has an unusual organic looking structure, one that expert antenna designers would not likely produce. This antenna has been tested, baselined and is scheduled to fly this year. In addition to the ST5 antenna, our laboratory has evolved an S-band phased array antenna element design that meets the requirements for NASA's TDRS-C communications satellite scheduled for launch early next decade. A combination of fairly broad bandwidth, high efficiency and circular polarization at high gain made for another challenging design problem. We chose to constrain the evolutionary design to a crossed-element Yagi antenna. The specification called for two types of elements, one for receive only and one for transmit/receive. We were able to evolve a single element design that meets both specifications thereby simplifying the antenna and reducing testing and integration costs. The highest performance antenna found using a getic algorithm and stochastic hill-climbing has been fabricated and tested. Laboratory results correspond well with simulation. Aerospace component design is an expensive and important step in space development. Evolutionary design can make a significant contribution wherever sufficiently fast, accurate and capable software simulators are available. We have demonstrated successful real-world design in the spacecraft antenna domain; and there is good reason to believe that these results could be replicated in other design spaces.

Hornby, Gregory S.↗