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At least 1,675 records · Page 93

Summertime methane and carbon dioxide emission rates and associated variables from a national-scale survey of 146 reservoirs in the United States, 2016-2023

Reservoirs are globally important sources of greenhouse gases, but the magnitude of their emissions is highly uncertain. Here we present data for 146 reservoirs from two surveys of reservoir methane and carbon dioxide emissions, one at the regional scale in the midwestern United States and one at the national scale in the conterminous United States, plus data from one reservoir in Washington and another in Puerto Rico. At all reservoirs, ebullitive and diffusive emissions and basic physiochemistry were measured at 15-70 locations during one 22 to 64-hour period during the summers of 2016-2023, with four reservoirs revisited a second time. Concomitant water chemistry measurements were also made at an index site. The dataset is comprised of two geospatial files and seven .csv files containing greenhouse gas emissions, water chemistry, morphology, and other relevant data. These data comprise the largest multi-reservoir emissions dataset ever assembled using consistent measurement methods.

Beaulieu, Jake [University of Notre Dame, IN]↗

Late-glacial and Holocene Vegetation and Climate Variability, Including Major Droughts, in the Sky Lakes Region of Southeastern New York State

Sediment cores from Lakes Minnewaska and Mohonk in the Shawangunk Mountains of southeastern New York were analyzed for pollen, plantmacrofossils, macroscopic charcoal, organic carbon content, carbon isotopic composition, carbon/nitrogen ratio, and lithologic changes to determine the vegetation and landscape history of the greater Catskill Mountain region since deglaciation. Pollen stratigraphy generally matches the New England pollen zones identified by Deevey (1939) and Davis (1969), with boreal genera (Picea, Abies) present during the late Pleistocene yielding to a mixed Pinus, Quercus and Tsuga forest in the early Holocene. Lake Minnewaska sediments record the Younger Dryas and possibly the 8.2 cal kyr BP climatic events in pollen and sediment chemistry along with an ~1400 cal yr interval of wet conditions (increasing Tsuga and declining Quercus) centered about 6400 cal yr BP. BothMinnewaska andMohonk reveal a protracted drought interval in themiddle Holocene, ~5700-4100 cal yr BP, during which Pinus rigida colonized the watershed, lake levels fell, and frequent fires led to enhanced hillslope erosion. Together, the records show at least three wet-dry cycles throughout the Holocene and both similarities and differences to climate records in New England and central New York. Drought intervals raise concerns for water resources in the New York City metropolitan area and may reflect a combination of enhanced La Niña, negative phase NAO, and positive phase PNA climatic patterns and/or northward shifts of storm tracks.

Drought↗

The Brazilian Earth System Model ocean–atmosphere (BESM-OA) version 2.5: evaluation of its CMIP5 historical simulation

The performance of the coupled ocean–atmosphere component of the Brazilian Earth SystemModel version 2.5 (BESM-OA2.5) was evaluated in simulating the historical period1850–2005. After a climate model validation procedure in which the main atmospheric andoceanic variabilities were evaluated against observed and reanalysis datasets, theevaluation specifically focused on the mean climate state and the most importantlarge-scale climate variability patterns simulated in the historical run, which wasforced by the observed greenhouse gas concentration. The most significant upgrades in themodel's components are also briefly presented here. BESM-OA2.5 could reproduce the mostimportant large-scale variabilities, particularly over the Atlantic Ocean (e.g., theNorth Atlantic Oscillation, the Atlantic Meridional Mode, and the Atlantic MeridionalOverturning Circulation), and the extratropical modes that occur in both hemispheres. Themodel's ability to simulate such large-scale variabilities supports its usefulness forseasonal climate prediction and in climate change studies.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Quantifying the Value of Technology and Policy Innovation in Water Resource Portfolios

Abstract Recent water infrastructure planning models demonstrate that explicitly accounting for hydrological changes in long‐term water planning reduces costs and increases system robustness. However, current models do not consider the effects of other changes occurring in the system over long time horizons, namely technology and policy innovation. By leveraging state‐of‐the‐art dynamic control techniques, we propose a suite of tools that explicitly relate hydrologic change, technology innovation, and policy interventions to system‐level water costs. We design robust and cost‐optimal strategies for water supply expansion under hydrological variability and hundreds of plausible innovation states, for example, treatment cost and diversification improvements, deployment times, and demand reduction campaigns. Our approach circumvents the need to pre‐assign probabilities to innovation scenarios and, instead, directly calculates the effects of technology, policy, and hydrology variations on system cost and planning strategies to identify avenues of impactful innovation. These tools can support technology development hubs, urban, state, and federal water planners in anticipating cost implications of technology and policy innovation at the local level, and prioritizing high‐impact innovation goals based on quantitative targets. Results for the case study of Santa Barbara, California identify high‐value innovation attributes for the city as well as combinations of innovation attributes across technologies and policies, and quantify their potential utility cost reductions.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗

Studies of BL Lacertae objects with the Einstein Observatory - The soft X-ray spectra of OJ 287 and PKS 0735+178

Accurate, soft X-ray spectra of two BL Lac objects, OJ 287 and PKS 0735+178, are presented. The X-ray spectra are well described by a power-law model with a low-energy cutoff consistent with photoelectric absorption within the Galaxy. The best-fit values of the energy spectral index in the 0.2-4.0 keV band are 0.91 and 0.76 respectively. The X-ray flux from OJ 287 is variable by a ratio of three from low to high state; PKS 0735+178 shows no indication of X-ray variability. The X-ray emission in OJ 287 is interpreted to be due to the synchrotron process from a volume common with either a beamed radio component or a stationary optical component. In PKS 0735+178, where the X-ray emission is most likely due to the Compton process operating in one of the VLBI radio components. The synchrotron self-Compton process with modest kinematic Doppler factors predicts the measured X-ray flux from PKS 0735+178 and lower than the measured flux in OJ 287.

Madejski, Greg M.↗

A Time Integration Algorithm Based on the State Transition Matrix for Structures with Time Varying and Nonlinear Properties

A variable order method of integrating the structural dynamics equations that is based on the state transition matrix has been developed. The method has been evaluated for linear time variant and nonlinear systems of equations. When the time variation of the system can be modeled exactly by a polynomial it produces nearly exact solutions for a wide range of time step sizes. Solutions of a model nonlinear dynamic response exhibiting chaotic behavior have been computed. Accuracy of the method has been demonstrated by comparison with solutions obtained by established methods.

Bartels, Robert E.↗

A method for predicting failure statistics for steady state elevated temperature structural components

This paper presents the initial development of a high temperature life prediction method that accounts for the variability in the material properties of Grade 91 steel. The method accounts for material variability by fitting a variable 3-parameter Weibull distribution to experimental rupture data and accounts for the variability of creep deformation on the steady-state stresses via a Monte Carlo approach. To ensure reasonable computational times, the model represents the material as an extremely viscous Stokes fluid with a non-Newtonian viscosity, therefore solving the stress relaxation problem with a steady, static, instead of transient, analysis. Furthermore, the complete statistical analysis combines this model for creep deformation with a probabilistic model for creep rupture to evaluate the probability of premature failure for a set of sample problems, comparing the predicted failure statistics to the design life predicted by the ASME Boiler and Pressure Vessel Code rules.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Status of Research Activities on LVDTs: Modeling and Simulation Development and Performance Characterization of Commercial LVDTs

FY-22 research focused on two major areas. The first area was modeling and simulation with linked testing that will advance the Linear Variable Differential Transformers (LVDT) technology for use by stakeholders requiring LVDTs in upcoming irradiation tests. The second area focused on testing LVDTs purchased from U.S. suppliers that were investigated in FY-21. These cross-cutting development activities will ensure stakeholders have the current state-of-the-art LVDT-based technologies for deployment in future irradiation tests. Two stand-alone reports are included in the appendixes. The purpose of this report is to provide a convenient body of work to access the reports and to evaluate the data and conclusions provided. Appendix A, “Testing of the RDP Translation Transducer,” contains a complete evaluation of an RDP Electrosense linear transducer that has the capability of replicating the form, fit, and function of LVDTs currently being used at Idaho National Laboratory (INL). Appendix B is an extract from the report, “Advanced Sensors and Instrumentation Program at Boise State University (BSU), August 2022, Linear Variable Differential Transformers.” This report contains modeling and testing results conducted at BSU and INL.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

Quasi-Periodic Oscillations in Black Hole Candidates as an Indicator of Transition Between Low and High States

By comparing positions on a spectral color-color diagram from 10 black hole candidates (BHCS) observed with Ginga (1354-64, 1826-24, 1630-47, LMC X-1, LMC X-3, GS 2000+25, GS 2023+33, GS 1124-68, Cyg X-1, and GX 339-4) with the observed broad-band noise (0.001- 64 Hz; BBN) and quasi-periodic oscillation (QPO) variability, we find that the so-called "Very High State" is spectrally intermediate to the Soft/High-State and Hard/Low-State. We find a transition point in spectral hardness where the dependence of the BHC QPO centroid frequency (of GS 1124-68 and GX 339-4) on spectral hardness switches from a correlation to an anti-correlation; where the BBN variability switches from High-State to Low-State; and where the spectral hardness of the QPO relative to that of the BBN variability is a maximum. This coincidence of changing behavior in both the QPO and the broad-band variability leads us to hypothesize that the QPO is due to interaction between the physical components which dominate the behaviors of BHCs when they occupy the Hard/Low and Soft/High States. We conclude that these QPO should be observed from BHCs during transition between these two states. Comparison with QPO and BBN behavior observed during the 1996 transition of Cyg X-1 supports this hypothesis. We also report 1-3 Hz QPO observed in GS 2000+25 and Cyg X-1 in the Hard/Low State, and we compare these to the QPO observed in GS 1124-68 and GX 339-4.

Rutledge, Robert E↗

Representation of U.S. Warm Temperature Extremes in Global Climate Model Ensembles

Extreme temperature events can have considerable negative impacts on sectors such as health, agriculture, and transportation. Observational evidence indicates the severity and frequency of warm extremes are increasing over much of the United States, but there are sizeable challenges both in estimating extreme temperature changes and in quantifying the relevant associated uncertainties. This study provides a simple statistical framework using a block maxima approach to analyze the representation of warm temperature extremes in several recent global climate model ensembles. Uncertainties due to structural model differences, grid resolution, and internal variability are characterized and discussed. Results show that models and ensembles differ greatly in the representation of extreme temperature over the United States, and variability in tail events is dependent on time and anthropogenic warming, which can influence estimates of return periods and distribution parameter estimates using generalized extreme value (GEV) distributions. These effects can considerably influence the uncertainty of model hindcasts and projections of extremes. Several idealized regional applications are highlighted for evaluating ensemble skill and trends, based on quantile analysis and root-mean-square errors in the overall sample and the upper tail. The results are relevant to regional climate assessments that use global model outputs and that are sensitive to extreme warm temperature. Accompanying this manuscript is a simple toolkit using the R statistical programming language for characterizing extreme events in gridded datasets.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Supercruiser Arrow HS-8

Technology in aeronautics has advanced dramatically since the last design of a production High Speed Civil Transport (HSCT) aircraft. Newly projected requirements call for a new High Speed Civil Transport aircraft with a range of approximately 550 nm and at least 275 passenger capacity. The aircraft must be affordable and marketable. The new HSCT must be able to sustain long-duration flights and to absorb the abuse of daily operation. The new aircraft must be safe and simple to fly and require a minimum amount of maintenance. This aircraft must meet FAA certification criteria of FAR Part 25 and environmental constraints. Several design configurations were examined and two designs were selected for further investigation. The first design employs the delta planform wings and conventional empennage layout. The other design uses a swing wing layout and conventional empennage. Other engineering challenges, including materials and propulsion are also discussed. At a cruise flight speed between Mach 2.2 and Mach 3.0, no current generation of materials can endure the thermal loading of supersonic flight and satisfy the stringent weight requirements. A new generation of lightweight composite materials must be developed for the HSCT. With the enforcement of stage 3 noise restrictions, these new engines must be able to propel the aircraft and satisfy the noise limit. The engine with the most promise is the variable cycle engine. At low subsonic speeds the engine operates like a turbofan engine, providing the most efficient performance. At higher speeds the variable cycle engine operates as a turbojet power plant. The two large engine manufacturers, General Electric and Pratt & Whitney in the United States, are combining forces to make the variable cycle engine a reality.

Lord, Paul↗

An approach to online network monitoring using clustered patterns

Network traffic monitoring is a core element in network operations and management for various purposes such as anomaly detection, change detection, and fault/failure detection. In this study, we introduce a new approach to online monitoring using a pattern-based representation of the network traffic. Unlike the past online techniques limited to a single variable to summarize (e.g., sketch), the focus of this study is on capturing the network state from the multivariate attributes under consideration. To this end, we employ clustering with its benefit of the aggregation of multidimensional variables. The clustered result represents the state of the network with regard to the monitored variables, which can also be compared with the previously observed patterns visually and quantitatively. Finally, we demonstrate the proposed method with two popular use cases, one for estimating state changes and the other for identifying anomalous states, to confirm its feasibility.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Structural and magnetic behavior of the cubic oxyfluoride SrFeO{sub 2}F studied by neutron diffraction

The oxyfluoride SrFeO{sub 2}F has been prepared via a low temperature route involving the infinite-layer SrFeO{sub 2} and XeF{sub 2}. SrFeO{sub 2}F crystallizes in the cubic space group Pm-3m with disordered oxygen and fluorine atoms on the anion site. Recent reports demonstrated that SrFeO{sub 2}F is antiferromagnetic at room temperature and the zero field cooled and field cooled curves diverge at ∼150 K and ∼60 K, suggesting that the material has a spin glassy magnetic state at low temperatures. In this article, variable-temperature neutron diffraction (4–723 K) was performed to clarify the magnetic behavior observed in this material. Neutron powder diffraction measurements confirmed the antiferromagnetic (AFM) ordering of the system at room temperature. Below 710(1) K, the magnetic structure is a G-type AFM structure characterized by a propagation vector k=(1/2 , 1/2 , 1/2 ). The ordered moments on Fe{sup 3+} are 4.35(6)µ{sub B} at 4 K and 4.04(5)µ{sub B} at 290 K. Our results indicate that the cubic structure is retained all the way to base temperature (4 K) in contrast to PbFeO{sub 2}F. These results are compared with those of Pb and Ba analogs which exhibit very similar magnetic behavior. Furthermore, the observation of magnetic reflections at 4 K in the diffraction pattern shows the absence of the previously proposed spin glassy behavior at low temperatures. Previous proposals to explain the ZFC/FC divergences are examined. - Graphical abstract: Variable temperature powder neutron diffraction was employed to follow the evolution of the long range antiferromagnetic state in SrFeO{sub 2}F. - Highlights: • SrFeO{sub 2}F prepared via low temperature route involving SrFeO{sub 2} and XeF{sub 2}. • The cubic structure, Pm-3m, is retained at low temperatures, 4 K. • The magnetic structure is G-type AFM with T{sub N}=710 K and Fe{sup 3+} moment of 4.35µ{sub B}. • A small volume, bulk decoupled, spin glassy domain/cluster mechanism is proposed. • Highest AFM ordering temperature compared to Pb and Ba analogs.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Investigating powerful jets in radio-loud narrow-line Seyfert 1s

Here, we report results on multiband observations from radio to γ-rays of the two radio-loud narrow-line Seyfert 1 (NLSy1) galaxies PKS 2004-447 and J1548+3511. Furthermore, both sources show a core–jet structure on parsec scale, while they are unresolved at the arcsecond scale. The high core dominance and the high variability brightness temperature make these NLSy1 galaxies good γ-ray source candidates. Fermi-Large Area Telescope detected γ-ray emission only from PKS 2004-447, with a γ-ray luminosity comparable to that observed in blazars. There was no γ-ray emission observed for J1548+3511. Both sources are variable in X-rays. J1548+3511 shows a hardening of the spectrum during high activity states, while PKS 2004-447 has no spectral variability. A spectral steepening likely related to the soft excess is hinted below 2 keV for J1548+3511, while the X-ray spectra of PKS 2004-447 collected by XMM–Newton in 2012 are described by a single power law without significant soft excess. No additional absorption above the Galactic column density or the presence of an Fe line is detected in the X-ray spectra of both sources.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Traffic study of a computer system.

A study which may guide the operations of existing computer installations, as well as the design of future networks, is described. Performance data and evaluations are considered with reference to interarrival time, users' habits, waiting time for execution, time spent in a partition, figures of merit, and states of the system. The analysis of the variables proceeds from examination of typical data with appropriate statistical tests to conclusions about the possible state of nature.

Cramer, R. L.↗

Multivariate network traffic analysis using clustered patterns

Traffic analysis is a core element in network operations and management for various purposes including change detection, traffic prediction, and anomaly detection. In this paper, we introduce a new approach to online traffic analysis based on a pattern-based representation for high-level summarization of the traffic measurement data. Unlike the past online analysis techniques limited to a single variable to summarize (e.g., sketch), the focus of this study is on capturing the network state from the multivariate attributes under consideration. To this end, we employ clustering with its benefit of the aggregation of multidimensional variables. The clustered result represents the state of the network with regard to the monitored variables, which can also be compared with the observed patterns from previous time windows enabling intuitive analysis. Finally, we demonstrate the proposed method with two popular use cases, one for estimating state changes and the other for identifying anomalous states, to confirm its feasibility. Our extensive experimental results with public traces and collected monitoring measurements from ESnet traffic traces show that our pattern-based approach is effective for multivariate analysis of online network traffic with visual and quantitative tools.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Impact damage resistance of composite fuselage structure, part 1

The impact damage resistance of laminated composite transport aircraft fuselage structures was studied experimentally. A statistically based designed experiment was used to examine numerous material, laminate, structural, and extrinsic (e.g., impactor type) variables. The relative importance and quantitative measure of the effect of each variable and variable interactions on responses including impactor dynamic response, visibility, and internal damage state were determined. The study utilized 32 three-stiffener panels, each with a unique combination of material type, material forms, and structural geometry. Two manufacturing techniques, tow placement and tape lamination, were used to build panels representative of potential fuselage crown, keel, and lower side-panel designs. Various combinations of impactor variables representing various foreign-object-impact threats to the aircraft were examined. Impacts performed at different structural locations within each panel (e.g., skin midbay, stiffener attaching flange, etc.) were considered separate parallel experiments. The relationship between input variables, measured damage states, and structural response to this damage are presented including recommendations for materials and impact test methods for fuselage structure.

Dost, E. F.↗