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The Lifecycle of Bayesian Network Models Developed for Multi-Source Signature Assessment of Nuclear Programs

The Multi-Source Signatures for Nuclear Programs project, part of Pacific Northwest National Laboratory’s (PNNL) Signature Discovery Initiative, seeks to computationally capture expert assessment of multi-type information such as text, sensor output, imagery, or audio/video files, to assess nuclear activities through a series of Bayesian network (BN) models. These models incorporate knowledge from a diverse range of information sources in order to help assess a country’s nuclear activities. The models span engineering topic areas, state-level indicators, and facility-specific characteristics. To illustrate the development, calibration, and use of BN models for multi-source assessment, we present a model that predicts a country’s likelihood to participate in the international nuclear nonproliferation regime. We validate this model by examining the extent to which the model assists non-experts arrive at conclusions similar to those provided by nuclear proliferation experts. We also describe the PNNL-developed software used throughout the lifecycle of the Bayesian network model development.

98 NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT, SAFEGUARDS, AND PHYSICAL P↗

Grid Utility Asset Vulnerability Assessment (GUAVA) Software Tool

Increasing demand and changes in generation portfolios is pushing power grid to operate towards the limit. However, due to lack of analytical tools for understanding various scales of impact on grid, it is becoming more vulnerable to wide scale power outages and blackouts. A vulnerable grid operating at its limit can be easily disrupted by asset failures caused by devastating hurricanes which has been known to damage transmission and distribution lines along its track. In this direction, researchers have focused on determining these assets by conducting Monte Carlo simulations of hurricanes with uncertainties and collected a large set of simulation data. To determine the infrastructure updates necessary for mitigating wide scale impact of hurricanes on the grid, we propose a software tool named “Grid Utility Asset Vulnerability Analysis” (GUAVA) framework. GUAVA presents a novel data-driven probabilistic analytical approach to (1) post-process hurricane failure scenarios, (2) identify/rank assets that are most vulnerable and critical to failing and are associated with highest impact/risk, and (3) to inform system upgrade decisions & prioritization. Based on the observed results and employed data-driven methodology, it is expected GUAVA can be adapted to provide power system planners with a recommendation engine for making informed decisions to improve resilience of grid.

Mahapatra, Kaveri↗

Code for BALDR Study 07.04

SAND2024-11256O The Code for BALDR Study 07.04 software reproduces results from the BALDR study concerning "Multilabel Proportion Prediction and Out-of-Distribution Detection on Gamma Spectra of Short-Lived Fission Products." This code can reproduce a scientific study following the step numbers present in the file names. The scientific study uses synthetic and measured data to find the best model for the radioisotope proportion estimation task of interest and generates results. Sandia National Laboratories is a multimission laboratory managed and operated by National Technology & Engineering Solutions of Sandia, LLC, a wholly owned subsidiary of Honeywell International Inc., for the U.S. Department of Energy’s National Nuclear Security Administration under contract DE-NA0003525.

Morrow, Tyler↗

GenConfig

SAND2025-04091O GenConfig converts a build name into a set of configuration flags or CMake fragment files for use with CMake. This is accomplished using ConfigKeywordParser and two configuration files. GenConfig is the main tool in a set of software libraries used for generating and configuring an environment and configuration flags. The tool uses other modules within the GenConfig family to ultimately parse and enable an environment that is ready for development from a given build name string. The unique algorithms used in GenConfig mainly pertain to validating the format and checking the existence of the given build string in the expected configuration .ini files. Sandia National Laboratories is a multimission laboratory managed and operated by National Technology & Engineering Solutions of Sandia, LLC, a wholly owned subsidiary of Honeywell International Inc., for the U.S. Department of Energy’s National Nuclear Security Administration under contract DE-NA0003525.

Gates, Jason↗

Cell G 7606A Mockup Measurement Analysis Methods and Results

The production of research isotopes at the Radiochemical Engineering Development Center (REDC) invariably leads to the accumulation of radioactive waste. Storage of this waste onsite at ORNL serves as an interim solution prior to shipment to long term storage facilities, however onsite capacity is limited. Proper characterization of the activity of waste products is essential for determining the appropriate waste stream and, ultimately, mitigating the cost of disposal. This is typically done via gamma spectrometry and use of the In-Situ Object Counting System (ISOCS), a software package from Mirion that serves as an accepted community standard. However, variability in the contents, density, and activity distribution in waste containers can introduce large errors in ISOCS quantification. A measurement campaign using a mockup of the proposed setup in Cell G seeks to quantify the magnitude and source of these systematic errors. Analysis of this data will guide the creation of ISOCS geometry templates and measurement methods designed to minimize overall uncertainty in reported activities.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Reducing Contingency through Sampling at the Luckey FUSRAP Site - 13186

Typically, the greatest risk in developing accurate cost estimates for the remediation of hazardous, toxic, and radioactive waste sites is the uncertainty in the estimated volume of contaminated media requiring remediation. Efforts to address this risk in the remediation cost estimate can result in large cost contingencies that are often considered unacceptable when budgeting for site cleanups. Such was the case for the Luckey Formerly Utilized Sites Remedial Action Program (FUSRAP) site near Luckey, Ohio, which had significant uncertainty surrounding the estimated volume of site soils contaminated with radium, uranium, thorium, beryllium, and lead. Funding provided by the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act (ARRA) allowed the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) to conduct additional environmental sampling and analysis at the Luckey Site between November 2009 and April 2010, with the objective to further delineate the horizontal and vertical extent of contaminated soils in order to reduce the uncertainty in the soil volume estimate. Investigative work included radiological, geophysical, and topographic field surveys, subsurface borings, and soil sampling. Results from the investigative sampling were used in conjunction with Argonne National Laboratory's Bayesian Approaches for Adaptive Spatial Sampling (BAASS) software to update the contaminated soil volume estimate for the site. This updated volume estimate was then used to update the project cost-to-complete estimate using the USACE Cost and Schedule Risk Analysis process, which develops cost contingencies based on project risks. An investment of $1.1 M of ARRA funds for additional investigative work resulted in a reduction of 135,000 in-situ cubic meters (177,000 in-situ cubic yards) in the estimated base volume estimate. This refinement of the estimated soil volume resulted in a $64.3 M reduction in the estimated project cost-to-complete, through a reduction in the uncertainty in the contaminated soil volume estimate and the associated contingency costs. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

SU-E-T-167: Evaluation of Mobius Dose Calculation Engine Using Out of the Box Preconfigured Beam Data

Purpose: Determine the dose calculation accuracy of a preconfigured Mobius server for use in secondary checks of a treatment planning system. Methods: 10 plans were created for irradiation on two of the IROC (formerly RPC) accreditation phantoms: 4 for the head and neck phantom and 6 for the lung phantom. The plans each were created using one of four different photon energies (6FFF, 10 FFF, 6X, and 15X) and were varied in treatment type including VMAT, step and shoot IMRT, dynamic MLC IMRT (DMLC), and conformal RT (CRT). The TLDs in the phantoms were contoured, and each plan was sent for calculation to Mobius software (Mobius Medical Systems, Houston, TX) with a default configuration. Each plan was then irradiated on the planned phantom 3 times to create an average reading across 56 TLDs. These readings were then compared against the corresponding Mobius calculation at each TLD location. Results: The mean difference (MD) normalized to the plan prescription dose between each TLD and Mobius calculation for all measurements was 0.5 ± 3.3%, with a maximum difference of 8.4%. The MD was 0.6 ± 3.8%, − 2.0 ± 1.9%, 1.7 ± 3.7%, and 1.9 ± 1.2% across the 6FFF, 10FFF, 6X and 15X energies respectively. The MD was −1.2 ± 2.3% for lung plans and 1.8 ± 3.5% for head/neck plans. Across treatment types, the MD ranged from − 1.8 ± 1.7% for CRT to 4.3 ± 2.4 % for DMLC. Conclusion: Out of the box and preconfigured, Mobius provides accurate dose calculations with respect to beam energy, treatment type, and treatment site.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

ORIGEN-based Nuclear Fuel Inventory Module for Fuel Cycle Assessment: Final Project Report

The goal of this project, “ORIGEN-based Nuclear Fuel Depletion Module for Fuel Cycle Assessment" is to create a physics-based reactor depletion and decay module for the Cyclus nuclear fuel cycle simulator in order to assess nuclear fuel inventories over a broad space of reactor operating conditions. The overall goal of this approach is to facilitate evaluations of nuclear fuel inventories for a broad space of scenarios, including extended used nuclear fuel storage and cascading impacts on fuel cycle options such as actinide recovery in used nuclear fuel, particularly for multiple recycle scenarios. The advantages of a physics-based approach (compared to a recipe-based approach which has been typically employed for fuel cycle simulators) is in its inherent flexibility; such an approach can more readily accommodate the broad space of potential isotopic vectors that may be encountered under advanced fuel cycle options. In order to develop this flexible reactor analysis capability, we are leveraging the Origen nuclear fuel depletion and decay module from SCALE to produce a standalone “depletion engine” which will serve as the kernel of a Cyclus-based reactor analysis module. The ORIGEN depletion module is a rigorously benchmarked and extensively validated tool for nuclear fuel analysis and thus its incorporation into the Cyclus framework can bring these capabilities to bear on the problem of evaluating long-term impacts of fuel cycle option choices on relevant metrics of interest, including materials inventories and availability (for multiple recycle scenarios), long-term waste management and repository impacts, etc. Developing this Origen-based analysis capability for Cyclus requires the refinement of the Origen analysis sequence to the point where it can reasonably be compiled as a standalone sequence outside of SCALE; i.e., wherein all of the computational aspects of Origen (including reactor cross-section library processing and interpolation, input and output processing, and depletion/decay solvers) can be self-contained into a single executable sequence. Further, to embed this capability into other software environments (such as the Cyclus fuel cycle simulator) requires that Origen’s capabilities be encapsulated into a portable, self-contained library which other codes can then call directly through function calls, thereby directly accessing the solver and data processing capabilities of Origen. Additional components relevant to this work include modernization of the reactor data libraries used by Origen for conducting nuclear fuel depletion calculations. This work has included the development of new fuel assembly lattices not previously available (such as for CANDU heavy-water reactor assemblies) as well as validation of updated lattices for light-water reactors updated to employ modern nuclear data evaluations. The CyBORG reactor analysis module as-developed under this workscope is fully capable of dynamic calculation of depleted fuel compositions from all commercial U.S. reactor assembly types as well as a number of international fuel types, including MOX, VVER, MAGNOX, and PHWR CANDU fuel assemblies. In addition, the Origen-based depletion engine allows for CyBORG to evaluate novel fuel assembly and reactor design types via creation of Origen reactor data libraries via SCALE. The establishment of this new modeling capability affords fuel cycle modelers a substantially improved ability to model dynamically-changing fuel cycle and reactor conditions, including recycled fuel compositions from fuel cycle scenarios involving material recycle into thermal-spectrum systems.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

A Large-Scale Analysis to Optimize the Control and V2V Communication Protocols for CDA Agreement-Seeking Cooperation

Cooperative driving automation (CDA) Class C, agreement-seeking cooperation, is an innovative and practical solution that can promote cooperation among general passenger vehicles on the road. However, more comprehensive studies are needed before establishing the standard protocols of agreement-seeking cooperation, such as communication frequency and the duration of cooperation. Here, this article presents an initiative study on the impacts of communication capabilities on agreement-seeking cooperation. Through a large-scale analysis by regulating vehicle-to-vehicle (V2V) communication metrics, this work suggests desirable system parameters that can maximize the benefits of cooperation and ensure reliable operability while avoiding exhaustive communication loads. As the first step, an example agreement-seeking cooperation system is created for a car-following scenario, including decision-making and control algorithms for autonomous vehicles. Then, software-in-the-loop tests explore the performance of the developed system as it encounters various communication risks, such as latency and message packet drops. The system performance metrics are evaluated from various angles, including the time consumed for the agreement-seeking process, cooperation ratio, and the ratio of faulty cooperation. Energy saving from the cooperation is assessed by using simulation software that can run multiple high-fidelity vehicle models simultaneously. Based on the analyses, this article suggests the V2V communication requirements for the reliable operation of CDA agreement-seeking, which can be referred to when developing the standard protocols of agreement-seeking cooperation.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Air Blast Mesh Sensitivity and Pressure Mapping Study

Nose cone structural and aerodynamic characteristics are essential for intelligent design of aircraft, spacecraft, and ballistic systems. Finite element analysis can be used to help understand the structural integrity and flight characteristics of different nose cones. A mesh sensitivity study was undertaken for a particular nose cone geometry that was used in tests at LANL facilities in order to confirm the integrity of the meshed geometry. A simple cone that best matched closed-form theoretical solutions was modeled, and received good correlation to the theory. Complexity was then added back to the nose cone. Parameters applied to the simple cone were then implemented in the nose cone geometry giving assurance of accuracy after the geometry was changed. Nose cone results averaged 6.3% error for radial displacement when compared with the theoretical. Hoop stress averaged 6.0% error and meridional stress averaged 5.7% error at the finest mesh level. Meshes showed signs of convergence when compared to all three theoretical solutions. Finally, pressure time-history data from LANL computational fluid dynamics simulations was applied to the surface of the final nose cone geometry. The pressure data was interpolated from pressure gauge locations onto nearby meshed elements, which allowed for FEA software to run simulations on the cone with the pressure data as a loading condition. The pressure mapping resulted in the ability to understand the nose cone’s rigid body motion that in turn can inform design of future nose cones.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Simulation Tools for Characterizing Stress Distribution in Laser Welded Dissimilar Joints

This project focuses on developing a thermo-metallurgical-mechanical modeling method to accurately predict the microstructural evolution and residual stress in laser welding between dissimilar metals, such as HSLA steel and high carbon equivalent (CE) gear steel. The method leverages a comprehensive material database to model the temperature and rate dependent phase transformations, along with their associated effects on material properties, such as thermal expansion and flow stress, throughout the welding process. A key innovation is the incorporation of phase transformation and phase-specific properties, which enhances the accuracy of residual stress predictions. The mixture material in the fusion zone due to the dissimilar metals will also be addressed in the numerical model. This is especially critical in scenarios involving phase transformations in the fusion zone and heat-affected zone (HAZ), where the phase changes can induce substantial residual stress variations. The material database has been generated using JMatPro. The modeling approach is implemented through a custom User Material (UMAT) subroutine, executed with the commercial finite element software Abaqus.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

National Ignition Facility. Facility and Infrastructure Systems Maintenance Plan

Ensuring the reliability of the NIF, including its support systems, laser systems, target diagnostic systems, and utilities, is essential to the availability of the NIF in its support of NNSA missions. NIF is a key capability in the DOE Stockpile Stewardship Program and supports high energy physics experiments for nuclear weapons, energy, and astrophysics applications. High system reliability provides opportunities for shots and scientific discoveries with opportunities to enhance and upgrade capabilities. This Maintenance Plan (MP) identifies the policies and procedures used to perform and support asset management of the NIF Facility and Infrastructure Systems (FInS), NIF Lasers & Alignment (LASE), NIF Target Experimental Operations (TOPS), NIF Target Area Science and Engineering (TASE), and NIF&PS Control Systems (NCS). The FInS systems include the facility, HVAC, contamination control, beampath, and Line Replaceable Units (LRUs) as well as utilities which create the beampath environments, such as vacuum, argon, or clean dry air. The LASE systems are Programmatic systems which include laser diagnostics, alignment, power conditioning, pulsed power, and input laser systems. The TOPS and TASE systems are also Programmatic systems which include target and diagnostic delivery systems and positioners, many different insertable and fixed target diagnostics, and cryogenic and target gas fill systems. Finally, the NCS systems include both software and hardware for industrial and shot operation control systems. Policies governing administrative and operational practices related to maintenance of FInS, LASE, TOPS, TASE, and NCS systems are described in this plan. In addition, the plan provides processes and procedures for managing, tracking, and documenting the work. This document, the NIF Operations Management Plan, NIF-5020544 (Ref. 1), and NIF Shot Operations Plan, NIF-5018506 (Ref. 2), together satisfy the requirements of the Conduct of Operations. Duties, responsibilities, and reporting requirements of the various positions associated with FInS, LASE, and TOPS maintenance are detailed in this plan. The FInS systems include both Real Property systems with asset management requirements specified in DOE Order 430.1C (Ref. 3) and Programmatic systems. In addition, for FInS, there is a list of the System Level Maintenance Plans (SLMPs) in NIF-1007419198 (Ref. 4) which provide the system descriptions and maintenance plan and schedule. In addition, the list includes the Reliability Centered Maintenance (RCM) and Experience Centered Maintenance (ECM) evaluations that have been performed for applicable FInS systems as well as reliability criticality per Section 3.5. The -AM version of the NIF Maintenance Plan focuses on the reliability program for FInS, LASE, TOPS, TASE, and NCS within the context of the overall NIF Reliability, Availability, and Maintainability (RAM) program and incorporates changes since the -AL version from August 2011 and has been updated to be fully consistent with the updates to Ref. 1. It also includes asset management considerations, updates to the Work Order (WO) process within the NIF Computerized Maintenance Management System (CMMS) which is EAM infor® System Maintenance and Reliability Tracking (SMaRT) (Ref. 5), and updates to metrics and key performance indicators (KPIs).

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

The Italian Summer Students Program at Fermilab and other US Laboratories: 40 years of education in particle physics and technology

Since 1983 the Italian groups collaborating with Fermilab (US) have been running a 2-month summer training program for Master students. While in the first year the program involved only 4 physics students, in the following years it was extended to engineering students. Many students have extended their collaboration with Fermilab with their Master Thesis and PhD. The program has involved more than 600 Italian students from more than 20 Italian universities. Each intern is supervised by a Fermilab Mentor responsible for the training program. Training programs spanned from Tevatron, CMS, Muon (g-2), Mu2e and SBN (MicroBooNE, Icarus, and SBND) and DUNE design and data analysis, development of particle detectors, design of electronic and accelerator components, development of infrastructures and software for tera-data handling, quantum computing and research on superconductive elements and accelerating cavities. In 2015 the University of Pisa included the program within its own educational programs. Summer Students are enrolled at the University of Pisa for the duration of the internship and at the end of the internship they write summary reports on their achievements. After positive evaluation by a University of Pisa Examining Board, interns are acknowledged 6 ECTS credits for their Diploma Supplement. The program was paused in 2020 and 2021 due to the COVID-19 pandemic, but it resumed in 2022. From 2022 to 2024, a total of 60 students participated in the nine-week training at Fermilab. We are currently organizing the 2025 program. This paper provides an overview of the program, which can serve as a model for other interested laboratories.

Barzi, Emanuela [Ohio State U.]↗

Alquimia

Alquimia provides a generic interface between flow and transport simulators (drivers) and biogeochemical reaction capabilities (engines). Alquimia consists of two parts: an application programming interface, API, and a wrapper library. The API describes in detail how information is exchanged between the driver and the engine. This includes the function call signatures and data structures required for implementing alquimia in a mixed language (C/C++/Fortran) programming environment. The library is an implementation of the documented API, providing an interface into the biogeochemistry routines supplied by other codes: Alquimia does not do any geochemical calculations. Version 1.0 provides interfaces to the open source codes (BSD) CrunchFlow/CrunchTope and (LGPL) PFLOTRAN. Version 1.0 meets the policies set forth by (and is part of) the Extreme-scale Scientific Software Development Kit, xSDK version 0.6.0.

Andre, Benjamin [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (↗

Sparow-Examples

SAND2026-16701O SPAROW-Examples software provides a repository of stochastic programming examples designed to demonstrate Sandia's SPAROW optimization library. This resource helps users learn to develop complex applications with SPAROW by offering reference implementations that can be used to test and enhance new optimization solvers. The library offers a diverse range of simple and complex exemplars, including those related to power grid applications such as unit commitment and expansion planning. Sandia National Laboratories is a multimission laboratory managed and operated by National Technology & Engineering Solutions of Sandia, LLC, a wholly owned subsidiary of Honeywell International Inc., for the U.S. Department of Energy’s National Nuclear Security Administration under contract DE-NA0003525.

Hart, William [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-CA), Live↗

Refreshing Waste Tracking Software for the 2020's - 20059

The Waste Compliance and Tracking System (WCATS) is a software application designed to manage waste operations from cradle to grave. The system provides the support needed for characterization, generation, processing, and shipment of all waste generated or stored at Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL). Waste is tracked with task records for containers in real-time via both desktop and mobile device applications. The software allows application administrators to configure sites with appropriate limits for Pu-239 equivalent Curies (PE-Ci), fissile gram equivalents (FGEs), volume limits, as well as custom limits for site-specific technical safety requirements (TSRs). WCATS was developed based on a need at Los Alamos National Laboratory for a modern, customizable waste tracking system that could support many different waste types. The application is built using Oracle{sup R} database and Oracle{sup R} ADF Swing application framework. The technologies and software frameworks selected for the system were finalized in 2006. Although Oracle{sup R} Database has proven to be robust, the user interface and application framework interface with the database have been deprecated and need to be replaced. The technologies selected for modernization follow the open-source model, which allows the WCATS team to more easily recruit developers, improve the speed of development, and ease the deployment and adoption of the system. The tools that support the re-engineering effort are Vue.js{sup R}, a JavaScript{sup R} framework, and Spring Boot{sup R}, an API (application programming interface) development tool written in Java{sup R}. An API allows for simplified communication from the database to the user interface of the application. In addition, legacy Crystal Reports{sup R} will be replaced with reports developed with the open source Pentaho{sup TM}f Report Designer community edition. Because the application uses HTML and JavaScript{sup R}, it builds upon tools that have been used for many years in web development. These tools have large community support and their proven track record will ensure that enhancements to WCATS can continue for years to come. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Neutron multiplicity ,easurements With 3 He alternative: Straw neutron detectors

Counting neutrons emitted by special nuclear material (SNM) and differentiating them from the background neutrons of various origins is the most effective passive means of detecting SNM. Unfortunately, neutron detection, counting, and partitioning in a maritime environment are complex due to the presence of high-multiplicity spallation neutrons (commonly known as “ship effect”) and to the complicated nature of the neutron scattering in that environment. In this study, a prototype neutron detector was built using 10 B as the converter in a special form factor called “straws” that would address the above problems by looking into the details of multiplicity distributions of neutrons originating from a fissioning source. This paper describes the straw neutron multiplicity counter (NMC) and assesses the performance with those of a commercially available fission meter. The prototype straw neutron detector provides a large-area, efficient, lightweight, more granular (than fission meter) neutron-responsive detection surface (to facilitate imaging) to enhance the ease of application of fission meters. Presented here are the results of preliminary investigations, modeling, and engineering considerations leading to the construction of this prototype. This design is capable of multiplicity and Feynman variance measurements. This prototype may lead to a near-term solution to the crisis that has arisen from the global scarcity of 3 He by offering a viable alternative to fission meters. This paper describes the work performed during a 2-year site-directed research and development (SDRD) project that incorporated straw detectors for neutron multiplicity counting. The NMC is a two-panel detector system. We used 10 B (in the form of enriched boron carbide: 10 B 4 C) for neutron detection instead of 3 He. In the first year, the project worked with a panel of straw neutron detectors, investigated its characteristics, and developed a data acquisition (DAQ) system to collect neutron multiplicity information from spontaneous fission sources using a single panel consisting of 60 straws equally distributed over three rows in high-density polyethylene moderator. In the following year, we developed the field-programmable gate array and associated DAQ software. Finally, this SDRD effort successfully produced a prototype NMC with ~33% detection efficiency compared to a commercial fission meter.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗