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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2023

Do Citizen Science Intense Observation Periods Increase Data Usability? A Deep Dive of the NASA GLOBE Clouds Data Set With Satellite Comparisons

The Global Learning and Observations to Benefit the Environment (GLOBE) citizen science program has recently conducted a series of month-long intensive observation periods (IOPs), asking the public to submit daily reports on cloud and sky conditions from all regions of Earth. This provides a wealth of crowdsourced observations from the ground, which complements other conventional scientific cloud data. In addition, the GLOBE reports are matched in space and time with geostationary and low Earth orbit satellites, which allows for a straightforward comparison of cloud properties, and minimizes the biases associated with mismatched sampling between participants and satellites. The matched GLOBE dataset is used to calculate the mean observed cloud cover by atmospheric level both worldwide and by region. The overall magnitudes of cloud cover between the GLOBE participants and the matched satellites agree within 10%, which is notable given the distinctly different natures of the data sources. The mean vertical cloud profiles show GLOBE reporting more low-level clouds and fewer high-level clouds than satellites. The low cloud disagreement is likely related to satellites missing low clouds when high clouds block their view. Conversely, the high cloud disagreement is related primarily to cloud opacity, as satellites may miss some optically thin clouds. Monte Carlo testing shows the results to be robust, and the tripled amount of IOP data reduces uncertainty by half. These findings also highlight ways in which citizen science IOP data may be used to support scientific research while accounting for their unique properties. Plain Language Summary: Citizen science is becoming an increasingly prominent aspect of scientific research, and so it important to study how citizen science data can be used effectively. For example, The GLOBE Program has recently conducted a series of special data-collecting events, or “challenges”, which gathered large numbers of reports on cloud and sky conditions. Because NASA GLOBE Clouds matches the participant reports with cloud observations from satellites, we can use these data to get a combined view of clouds from above and below. When looking at the average cloud cover for different atmospheric levels across Earth, we find that the GLOBE participants and the satellites agree quite closely. This is a surprising and fascinating find, given how different in nature volunteer ground reports are to satellite measurements. However, there are some small but notable disagreements between GLOBE participants and satellites about the distribution of cloud cover at different levels. In addition, by testing the data for uncertainty, we show that the results from the GLOBE data are reliable, and that more public participation improves the reliability. So, by carefully designing the analysis methodology, and by testing for the uncertainty of the data, citizen science can make a meaningful contribution to scientific research.

J. Brant Dodson↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Stochastic Reconstruction of Thermal Protection Material Properties from Arc-Jet Experiments

Material response models are used to assess reliability using variances in the bond-line temperature predictions based on uncertainties in trajectory, aerothermal environment, and material properties. A key deficiency in the current approach is that input uncertainties are too often subjective, empirical, or ad-hoc, and are not rigorously linked to the arc-jet test data used to develop the TPS material model. While materials such as PICA are well understood, future missions may require more novel materials such as HEEET where unknown uncertainties have real consequences on the ability to assess reliability. A quantifiable estimate of reliability requires an iterative methodology where the parameters driving the variance in bond-line temperature (for example) are systematically identified. A test campaign to collect data or develop new models can then be identified to reduce those input uncertainties. A Bayesian inference loop defines these connections mathematically, i.e., prior knowledge about uncertainty is updated based on observation. While these concepts are well known (and often applied intuitively in a non-rigorous approach), only recent advances in reduced-order modelling have made them computationally viable methods for engineering. By replacing deterministic inverse methods with stochastic approaches, the hope is new materials proposed for future missions can more rapidly be developed with a greater understanding of the TPS material reliability. Two additional steps for the analysis of arc jet test data are discussed. The first is ability to construct a reduced-order model using material response simulations (Icarus/US3D) of the arc-jet test articles, and the second is the inclusion of this surrogate model in the Bayesian inversion process. Both capabilities will be demonstrated using prior PICA arc-jet test data. The quality of a surrogate model will be investigated and the variances on the calibrated material properties will be compared to our current understanding of the PICA material model.

Material response↗
DOE OSTI2016

Inverse Uncertainty Quantification of Reactor Simulation with Polynomial Chaos Surrogate Model

Reliable uncertainty quantification (UQ) and sensitivity analysis (SA) is significant part of modelling and simulation. This is particularly important in the nuclear community due to the fact that the licensing of nuclear installations has shifted from conservative to Best Estimate plus Uncertainty (BEPU) methodologies. UQ can be broadly classified as forward UQ and inverse UQ. Forward UQ is the process of quantifying the uncertainties in simulation outputs by propagating the uncertainties in input parameters. It requires knowledge in the input uncertainty, which is often specified by ad-hoc expert judgment which lacks mathematical rigor. The inverse UQ is the process to determine the uncertainty in input parameters given observations of the output. The purpose of this paper is to replace such ad-hoc expert judgment of the statistical properties of input model parameters in nuclear reactor simulation. This summary presents work on inverse UQ of a nonlinear Point Reactor Kinetics Equations - lumped thermal-hydraulics parameter coupled problem. Bayesian inference and Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) are used for the inverse UQ. Because MCMC requires a large number of simulations which is impractical for models that are computationally expensive, surrogate models is constructed by generalized Polynomial Chaos (PC) expansion technique. (authors)

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2017

Integrated emergency control board including design extended conditions for Krsko NPP - 297

In the aim of implementing post-Fukushima safety measures, Krsko Nuclear Power Plant is developing a Safety Upgrade Program. Krsko NPP is upgrading the remote shutdown capabilities and implementing ways to prevent and mitigate the consequences of potential Severe Accidents. This modification enhances remote shutdown capabilities of the plant to prevent potential severe accidents and improve the ways to mitigate their consequences. Within the set of plant design modifications, addressed the design, construction, and commissioning, of a new Emergency Control Room (EMCB. Tecnatom is the responsible of the design modification of the plant together with Idom, that participates with Tecnatom in the project as a joint venture, who provides a new set of field instrumentation, including its design and the corresponding wiring. EMCB integrates Human- System Interface throughout centralizing capabilities to safety shutdown and cooldown the plant as well as to control the new Design Extension Systems. The process relies on a Human Factors Engineering (HFE) analysis applying a specific methodology based on NUREG-0711 . Tecnatom has developed a specific HFE Program Management Plan to proceed with the analysis in a documented, traceable and reliable way. HFE activities ends with an Integrated System Validation in the actual full scope simulator involving MCR crews. This paper describes different phases of the project, the integrated schedule between HFE and I and C activities, benefits of upgrading main and emergency control rooms beyond design bases and addresses Tecnatom lessons learned obtained during the project execution. (authors)

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗
DOE OSTI2015

TESTING MICROVARIABILITY IN QUASAR DIFFERENTIAL LIGHT CURVES USING SEVERAL FIELD STARS

Microvariability consists of small timescale variations of low amplitude in the photometric light curves of quasars and represents an important tool to investigate their inner core. Detection of quasar microvariations is challenging because of their non-periodicity, as well as the need for high monitoring frequency and a high signal-to-noise ratio. Statistical tests developed for the analysis of quasar differential light curves usually show either low power or low reliability, or both. In this paper we compare two statistical procedures to perform tests on several stars with enhanced power and high reliability. We perform light curve simulations of variable quasars and non-variable stars and analyze them with statistical procedures developed from the F-test and the analysis of variance. The results show a large improvement in the power of both statistical probes and a larger reliability when several stars are included in the analysis. The results from the simulations agree with those obtained from observations of real quasars. The high power and high reliability of the tests discussed in this paper improve the results that can be obtained from short and long timescale variability studies. These techniques are not limited to quasar variability; on the contrary, they can be easily implemented for other sources, such as variable stars. Their applications to future research and to the analysis of large-field photometric monitoring archives could reveal new variable sources.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2022

NRC Reactor Operating Experience Analysis and Trend Summary: 2020 Update

This report presents a summary of the reliability and frequency trends identified in the 2020 update reports for component performance study, loss of offsite power analysis, initiating events analysis, and system study provided on the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) Reactor Operating Experience Results and Databases web site (https://nrcoe.inl.gov/).

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗
NASA NTRS1983

On requirements for software fault tolerance for flight controls

The need for the application of software fault tolerance techniques in digital flight control systems is argued to follow from the requirements derivable from the safety constraints of such systems, requirements which can be stated in terms of minimum acceptable system reliability levels and, moreover, stated quantitatively. It is argued further that, while fault tolerance appears to be a viable mechanism in general, individual fault tolerance schemes need to be analyzed to ensure that they are adequate to the task and being properly utilized, that such analysis is essentially an exercise in software 'reliability' estimation involving software characteristics not currently included in software 'reliability' modeling (most especially, the degree of correlation of malfunctions among redundant, dissimilar software modules), and that, consequently, further research and studies in the characterization of software behavior and malfunctions is required.

Migneault, G. E.↗
NASA NTRS1976

Nickel cadmium cell composite reliability model

Ni-Cd battery reliability has become a critical design parameter with the increasing need for longer life and optimally designed secondary battery power systems in space as well as in more mundane applications. It is the purpose of this paper to present a state-of-the-art Ni-Cd cell reliability model as a function of cumulative cyclic operation, cell temperature and cyclic depth-of-discharge. In addition, a simple and convenient cell failure analysis technique will be presented in which the reliability, the distribution, and the distribution parameters can be determined by visual inspection.

Kirsch, W. W.↗
NASA NTRS2019

Ground Vibration Testing at NASA Armstrong, Emphasizing on Passive Aeroelastic Tailored Wing Ground Vibration Test Using Fixed Base Correction Method

How does experimental mechanics contribute to aircraft aeroelastic airworthiness? The aviation community is always improving analysis and testing techniques to realize quicker, cheaper, reliable solutions. A ground vibration test (GVT) is conducted to identify structural mode shapes, frequencies, and damping values to validate analytical models used for flutter analysis, which shows whether a structure has acceptable aeroelastic flutter margins for airworthiness. The FLL recently conducted a GVT of the Passive Aeroelastic Tailored (PAT) Wing using an experimental modal technique called Fixed Base Correction (FBC). The GVT objective was to obtain the PAT wing modal characteristics to compare test results with finite element model (FEM) results for the tow-steered wingbox.

loads testing↗
DOE OSTI2020

Incorporating FLEX Strategies in Multi-Unit Probabilistic Risk Assessment

The catastrophic Fukushima nuclear accident reminded nuclear community about the possibilities of extreme accident scenarios, including those involving multiple reactor units on the same site. As the responses to the Fukushima accident, the nuclear power industry developed and implemented a series of strategies, including the Diverse and Flexible Coping Strategies (FLEX), to enhance the coping capacities of nuclear power plants (NPPs) under extreme accidents. This study intends to examine the impact of FLEX strategies on the risk from all the reactor units on the same NPP site, including risks from accidents involving a single unit and from accidents involving multiple units. The fundamental, methodological element of this study is Multi-Unit Probabilistic Risk Assessment (MUPRA), which requires a shift in Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) from a “one-reactor-at-a-time” mindset to a “considering all reactors sharing a site as a unity” one. An integrated modeling approach for multi-unit event sequence development will be leveraged to develop MUPRA model and address the intra-unit and inter-unit dependencies. Systems Analysis Programs for Hands-on Integrated Reliability Evaluations (SAPHIRE), a PRA software developed and maintained by Idaho National Laboratory (INL) for the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC), will serve as the platform for MUPRA modeling. This study selects Loss Of Offsite Power (LOOP) as a representative initiating event, which may occur on a generic two-unit NPP site and impacts both reactor units on the site. First, an MUPRA model, including multi-unit event trees, will be developed to obtain single-unit and multi-unit accident scenarios. Next, different FLEX strategies will be assumed, including FLEX equipment for a unit cannot be used for another unit, FLEX equipment for multiple units can be used in a cross-connected manner, etc. Lastly, the effectiveness of each postulated FLEX strategy will be evaluated by incorporating the corresponding FLEX equipment and deployment logic in the MUPRA model.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗
NASA NTRS1995

The Role of Analysis and Testing in the Service Life Assessment of Ion Engines

Experience from tests and flights and engineering analysis represent the two sources of information on which to base conclusions on the reliability or failure risk of aerospace flight systems. It is rarely feasible to establish high reliability at high confidence by testing aerospace flight systems or components. The limitations of testing in evaluating failure risk are discussed and an alternate statistical approach which relies on both test experience and analysis to quantitatively assess reliability is outlined. The implementation of this methodology in the service life assessment of ion thrusters is discussed and examples of failure modes being addressed in the NASA Solar Electric Propulsion Technology Application Readiness (NSTAR) program are given.

Ion↗
DOE OSTI2018

A hybrid wavelet de-noising and Rank-Set Pair Analysis approach for forecasting hydro-meteorological time series

Highlights: • A new hybrid approach is proposed to improve forecasts of hydro-meteorological time series. • Rank-Set Pair Analysis combined with wavelet de-noising markedly improves forecasting accuracy. • The performance of the proposed approach proves best among its present competitors even when the extreme value occurs. Accurate, fast forecasting of hydro-meteorological time series is presently a major challenge in drought and flood mitigation. This paper proposes a hybrid approach, wavelet de-noising (WD) and Rank-Set Pair Analysis (RSPA), that takes full advantage of a combination of the two approaches to improve forecasts of hydro-meteorological time series. WD allows decomposition and reconstruction of a time series by the wavelet transform, and hence separation of the noise from the original series. RSPA, a more reliable and efficient version of Set Pair Analysis, is integrated with WD to form the hybrid WD-RSPA approach. Two types of hydro-meteorological data sets with different characteristics and different levels of human influences at some representative stations are used to illustrate the WD-RSPA approach. The approach is also compared to three other generic methods: the conventional Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) method, Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) (BP-error Back Propagation, MLP-Multilayer Perceptron and RBF-Radial Basis Function), and RSPA alone. Nine error metrics are used to evaluate the model performance. Compared to three other generic methods, the results generated by WD-REPA model presented invariably smaller error measures which means the forecasting capability of the WD-REPA model is better than other models. The results show that WD-RSPA is accurate, feasible, and effective. In particular, WD-RSPA is found to be the best among the various generic methods compared in this paper, even when the extreme events are included within a time series.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2019

Visibility of Hypovascularized Liver Tumors during Intra-Arterial Therapy Using Split-Bolus Single-Phase Cone Beam CT

Purpose: To validate a split-bolus contrast injection protocol for single-phase CBCT in terms of detectability of hypovascular liver tumors compared to digital subtraction angiography (DSA). Materials and Methods: In this retrospective, single-center study, 20 consecutive patients with in total 77 hypovascularized tumors referred for intra-arterial therapy received a split-bolus single-phase CBCT. Two readers rated the visibility of the target tumors scheduled for embolization in CBCT and DSA compared to the pre-interventional multiphasic CT or MRI used as reference on a 3-point scoring system (1 = optimal, 3 = not visible) and catheter-associated artifacts (1 = none, 3 = extended). SNR, CNR and contrast values were derived from 37 target tumors in CBCT and MRI. Statistical analysis included the kappa test to determine interrater reliability, the Friedman’s test for the inter-modality comparison evaluating tumor visibility in DSA and CBCT as well as for quantitative assessment. Post hoc analysis included the Wilcoxon signed-rank test. p values < 0.05 were considered significant. Results: Ninety percentage of target tumors were rated as visible in CBCT and 37.5% in DSA (p < 0.001). 70.1% of pre-interventionally detected hypovascularized tumors were depicted with CBCT and 31.2% by DSA (p < 0.001). 7.8% of known tumors were outside the FOV. Quantitative assessment showed higher image contrasts in CBCT (1.91 ± 7.01) compared to hepatobiliary-phase MRI (0.29 ± 0.14, p = 0.003) and to portal-venous (p.v.) MRI (0.31 ± 0.13, p < 0.001), but higher CNR for MRI (1.18 ± 0.80; 13.92 ± 15.82; 13.79 ± 6.65). Conclusion: In conclusion, the split-bolus single-phase CBCT detects significantly more hypovascularized liver tumors compared to DSA performed through the proper hepatic artery with high image contrasts. Level of Evidence: Level III, diagnostic study.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗
DOE OSTI2022

Quantitative texture analysis at the WAND 2 and HIDRA diffractometers

Data collection and analysis strategies have been developed for efficient and reliable crystallographic texture measurements at two recently upgraded neutron diffractometers: the Wide Angle Neutron Diffractometer Squared (WAND 2 ) and the High Intensity Diffractometer for Residual Stress Analysis (HIDRA) at the High Flux Isotope Reactor located at Oak Ridge National Laboratory. These methods are demonstrated using measurements on a variety of textured samples, including multi-phase steel composites and polycrystalline calcite (CaCO 3 ). Reference measurements were also made at VULCAN, the engineering diffractometer located at the Spallation Neutron Source. The texture data obtained on the different instruments are in agreement, and WAND 2 is more time efficient than HIDRA. Two analysis methods were investigated, single-peak fitting to obtain individual pole figures for inversion and Rietveld texture analysis using MAUD. Here, the impact of the differences between the various textures obtained was evaluated through the calculation of diffraction elastic constants, which is one application of the texture data collected. Both instruments were found to provide texture data that are suitable for complementing other analyses, such as residual stress mapping.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗
DOE OSTI2020

The Impact of Behind-the-Meter Heterogeneous Distributed Energy Resources on Distribution Grids: Preprint

The increasing integration of distributed energy resources (DERs) on the electric grid brings new challenges and opportunities for utility grid operations. With the rapid deployment of DERs, there is emerging interest in integrating these controllable devices with utility operations at all levels for monitoring and management. Different types of DERs such as Photovoltaics (PV), energy storage, electric vehicles (EVs), etc. have varying effects on the grid based on how and where they are deployed. Again, the DER deployment and its impact are network-dependent, while the traditional electric grids were not designed to host DERs. To understand the challenges with increasing behind-the-meter (BTM) DERs and to identify the needs in deploying advanced controls, a comprehensive grid impact study is indispensable. This paper investigates the impacts of integrating a mix of DERs in the utility distribution network in Colorado, U.S. Firstly, BTM DERs at the residential scale including distributed PV; battery energy storage systems (BESS); heating, ventilation, and air-conditioning (HVAC) load; electric water heater (EWH) load; and EVs are modeled. The impacts of integrating these resources on the distribution network are evaluated by conducting time-series simulations for different scenarios considering different days to capture the worst-case conditions. Monte Carlo simulations are conducted to generate the realistic EV charging profile. The voltage issues, substation transformer loadings, and critical nodes in the network are identified with the incorporation of uncoordinated EV charging loads and other DER in the network. This analysis helps visualize the DER impact on the grid, identify the challenges, and provides an insight into the new distribution management and control needs to enable reliable and resilient distribution grid operations. Additionally, further analysis is performed to estimate the daily residential electricity cost with the inclusion of DERs under time-of-use tariffs. The result shows the daily residential electricity cost reduced by 20:7% on average with DERs compared to the case without DERs.

27 ARPA - Advanced Research Projects Agency-Energy↗
DOE OSTI2024

Achieving an 80% Renewable Portfolio in Alaska's Railbelt: Cost Analysis

This study examines the system-level costs and benefits of increased renewable energy deployment in the Railbelt grid, in the context of a proposed 80% renewable portfolio standard (RPS). This work studies the period from 2024 to 2040 and uses a model that simulates the planning, evolution, and operation of the power system to identify the mix of resources that maintains system reliability at the lowest electricity system cost over the period of analysis. The model tracks several reliability metrics, including the ability to serve demand during all hours of the year, even when normal power system failures occur. The model includes several measures (and associated costs) to address the variable output of renewable resources, including additional operating reserves, fuel storage, cycling of fossil plants, and additional equipment needed to maintain system stability. The Reference (least-cost) scenario results in substantial deployment of renewable energy and cost savings, reaching about 76% of Railbelt generation derived from renewables in 2040. Annual savings average about $105 M/year from 2030 to 2040. About 50% of this generation is from wind by 2040. Enforcing an 80% RPS results in about a 2% cumulative reduction in net savings. Demand is met in all scenarios, relying heavily on use of existing hydropower and fossil-fueled generators during periods of low renewable output. Meeting the increase in variability will require substantial changes in how the system is operated, with inverter-based resources providing nearly 100% of electricity during some periods.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
NASA NTRS1985

Effect of system workload on operating system reliability - A study on IBM 3081

This paper presents an analysis of operating system failures on an IBM 3081 running VM/SP. Three broad categories of software failures are found: error handling, program control or logic, and hardware related; it is found that more than 25 percent of software failures occur in the hardware/software interface. Measurements show that results on software reliability cannot be considered representative unless the system workload is taken into account. The overall CPU execution rate, although measured to be close to 100 percent most of the time, is not found to correlate strongly with the occurrence of failures. Possible reasons for the observed workload failure dependency, based on detailed investigations of the failure data, are discussed.

Iyer, R. K.↗
DOE OSTI2013

Fundamentals of a modified model of the distribution of neutron-resonance widths and results of its application in the mass-number range of 35 {<=} A {<=} 249

A modified model is developed for describing the distribution of random resonance width for any nuclei. The model assumes the coexistence in a nucleus of one or several partial radiative and neutron amplitudes for respective resonance widths, these amplitudes differing in their parameters. Also, it is assumed that amplitude can be described by a Gaussian curve characterized by a nonzero mean value and a variance not equal to unity and that their most probable values can be obtained with the highest reliability from approximations of cumulative sums of respective widths. An analysis of data for 157 sets of neutron widths for 0 {<=} l {<=} 3 and for 56 sets of total radiative widths has been performed to date. The basic result of this analysis is the following: both for neutron and for total radiative widths, the experimental set of resonance width can be represented with a rather high probability in the form of a superposition of k {<=} 4 types differing in mean amplitude parameters.

74 ATOMIC AND MOLECULAR PHYSICS↗