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NASA NTRS2000

Mitigating Adverse Effects of a Human Mission on Possible Martian Indigenous Ecosystems

Although human beings are, by most standards, the most capable agents to search for and detect extraterrestrial life, we are also potentially the most harmful. While there has been substantial work regarding forward contamination with respect to robotic missions, the issue of potential adverse effects on possible indigenous Martian ecosystems, such as biological contamination, due to a human mission has remained relatively unexplored and may require our attention now as this presentation will try to demonstrate by exploring some of the relevant scientific questions, mission planning challenges, and policy issues. An informal, high-level mission planning decision tree will be discussed and is included as the next page of this abstract. Some of the questions to be considered are: (1) To what extent could contamination due to a human presence compromise possible indigenous life forms? (2) To what extent can we control contamination? For example, will it be local or global? (3) What are the criteria for assessing the biological status of Mars, both regionally and globally? For example, can we adequately extrapolate from a few strategic missions such as sample return missions? (4) What should our policies be regarding our mission planning and possible interaction with what are likely to be microbial forms of extraterrestrial life? (5) Central to the science and mission planning issues is the role and applicability of terrestrial analogs, such as Lake Vostok for assessing drilling issues, and modeling techniques. Central to many of the policy aspects are scientific value, international law, public concern, and ethics. Exploring this overall issue responsibly requires an examination of all these aspects and how they interrelate. A chart is included, titled 'Mission Planning Decision Tree for Mitigating Adverse Effects to Possible Indigenous Martian Ecosystems due to a Human Mission'. It outlines what questions scientists should ask and answer before sending humans to Mars.

Lupisella, M. L.↗
NASA NTRS1995

Planetary Protection and Mars Exploration

Planetary spacecraft to explore Mars are subject to international and NASA policy regarding biological cleanliness. This policy is referred to as planetary protection and it establishes guidelines to prevent biological cross-contamination of planets during solar system exploration missions. Mars mission designs and exploration strategies are incomplete without consideration of planetary protection. In this paper, the foundation for planetary protection policy will be reviewed and key issues identified. Existing guidelines governing both forward and back contamination will be summarized. Various Mars exploration scenarios will be examined and the impact of planetary protection requirements will be assessed. Technical issues that need resolution will also be identified. Finally, there will be a discussion of anticipated public attitudes concerning the risk of back contamination from Mars sample return missions.

DeVincenzi, D. L.↗
NASA NTRS2007

Organization, Management and Function of International Space Station (ISS) Multilateral Medical Operations

Long duration crews have inhabited the ISS since November of 2000. The favorable medical outcomes of its missions can be largely attributed to sustained collective efforts of all ISS Partners medical organizations. In-flight medical monitoring and support, although crucial, is just a component of the ISS system of Joint Medical Operations. The goal of this work is to review the principles, design, and function of the multilateral medical support of the ISS Program. The governing documents, which describe the relationships among all ISS partner medical organizations, were evaluated, followed by analysis of the roles, responsibilities, and decision-making processes of the ISS medical boards, panels, and working groups. The degree of integration of the medical support system was evaluated by reviewing the multiple levels of the status reviews and mission assurance activities carried out throughout the last six years. The Integrated Medical Group, consisting of physicians and other essential personnel in the mission control centers represents the front-line medical support of the ISS. Data from their day-to-day activities are presented weekly at the Space Medicine Operations Team (SMOT), where known or potential concerns are addressed by an international group of physicians. A broader status review is conducted monthly to project the state of crew health and medical support for the following month, and to determine measures to return to nominal state. Finally, a comprehensive readiness review is conducted during preparations for each ISS mission. The Multilateral Medical Policy Board (MMPB) issues medical policy decisions and oversees all health and medical matters. The Multilateral Space Medicine Board (MSMB) certifies crewmembers and visitors for training and space flight to the Station, and physicians to practice space medicine for the ISS. The Multilateral Medical Operations Panel (MMOP) develops medical requirements, defines and supervises implementation of operational countermeasures, environmental monitoring, medical care, and emergency medical services. MMOP assures the medical readiness of the Station for each subsequent mission or critical event. All boards and panels have functioned effectively and without interruptions even in various challenging circumstances. Based on the experience of the authors, consensus has prevailed as the primary nature of decisions made by all ISS medical groups, at all levels. The six first years of piloted operation have demonstrated the ability of the ISS medical authority groups and the medical infrastructure to implement medical policies and requirements, effectively interface with non-medical groups, and maintain the health and productivity of the crew in an integrated, multilaterally coordinated fashion. The medical support system appears to be mature and ready for further expansion of all Partners roles, and for the anticipated increase in the size of ISS crews.

Duncan, James M.↗
NASA NTRS2005

Use of New Communication Technologies to Change NASA Safety Culture: Incorporating the Use of Blogs as a Fundamental Communications Tool

The purpose of this paper is to explore an innovative approach to culture change at NASA that goes beyond reorganizations, management training, and a renewed emphasis on safety. Over the last five years, a technological social revolution has been emerging from the internet. Blogs (aka web logs) are transforming traditional communication and information sharing outlets away from established information sources such as the media. The Blogosphere has grown from zero blogs in 1999 to approximately 4.5 million as of November 2004 and is expected to double in 2005. Blogs have demonstrated incredible effectiveness and efficiency with regards to affecting major military and political events. Consequently, NASA should embrace the new information paradigm presented by blogging. NASA can derive exceptional benefits from the new technology as follows: 1) Personal blogs can overcome the silent safety culture by giving voice to concerns or questions that are not well understood or seemingly inconsequential to the NASA community at-large without the pressure of formally raising a potential false alarm. Since blogs can be open to Agency-wide participation, an incredible amount of resources from an extensive pool of experience can focus on a single issue, concern, or problem and quickly vetted, discussed and assessed for feasibility, significance, and criticality. The speed for which this could be obtained cannot be matched through any other process or procedure currently in use. 2) Through official NASA established blogs, lessons learned can be a real-time two way process that is formed and implemented from the ground level. Data mining of official NASA blogs and personal blogs of NASA personnel can identify hot button issues and concerns to senior management. 3) NASA blogs could function as a natural ombudsman for the NASA community. Through the recognition of issues being voiced by the community and taking a proactive stance on those issues, credibility within NASA Management can be restored. For NASA to harness the capabilities of blogs, NASA must develop an Agency-wide policy on blogging to encourage use and provide guidance. This policy should describe basic rules of conduct and content as well as a policy of non-retribution and/or anonymity. The Agency must provide sever space within their firewalls, provide appropriate software tools, and promote blogs in newsletters and official websites. By embracing the use of blogs, a potential pool of 19,000 experts could be available to address each posted safety issue, concern, problem, or question. Blogs could result in real NASA culture change.

Huls, Dale thomas↗
NASA NTRS2004

High Altitude Long Endurance Remotely Operated Aircraft - National Airspace System Integration - Simulation IPT: Detailed Airspace Operations Simulation Plan. Version 1.0

The primary goal of Access 5 is to allow safe, reliable and routine operations of High Altitude-Long Endurance Remotely Operated Aircraft (HALE ROAs) within the National Airspace System (NAS). Step 1 of Access 5 addresses the policies, procedures, technologies and implementation issues of introducing such operations into the NAS above pressure altitude 40,000 ft (Flight Level 400 or FL400). Routine HALE ROA activity within the NAS represents a potentially significant change to the tasks and concerns of NAS users, service providers and other stakeholders. Due to the complexity of the NAS, and the importance of maintaining current high levels of safety in the NAS, any significant changes must be thoroughly evaluated prior to implementation. The Access 5 community has been tasked with performing this detailed evaluation of routine HALE-ROA activities in the NAS, and providing to key NAS stakeholders a set of recommended policies and procedures to achieve this goal. Extensive simulation, in concert with a directed flight demonstration program are intended to provide the required supporting evidence that these recommendations are based on sound methods and offer a clear roadmap to achieving safe, reliable and routine HALE ROA operations in the NAS. Through coordination with NAS service providers and policy makers, and with significant input from HALE-ROA manufacturers, operators and pilots, this document presents the detailed simulation plan for Step 1 of Access 5. A brief background of the Access 5 project will be presented with focus on Steps 1 and 2, concerning HALE-ROA operations above FL400 and FL180 respectively. An overview of project management structure follows with particular emphasis on the role of the Simulation IPT and its relationships to other project entities. This discussion will include a description of work packages assigned to the Simulation IPT, and present the specific goals to be achieved for each simulation work package, along with the associated deliverables necessary to achieve these goals and the needs of other Access 5 IPTs. The simulation environment chosen for this task is then outlined. This section includes a description of the system architecture, a list of the necessary assumptions made by the Simulation IPT, and the roles, responsibilities and interactions of simulation participants. The method of simulation conduct is presented in the next section with particular emphasis on scenario development and applicability to evaluation of Step 1 HALE-ROA operations. Following, data collection and analysis methods are discussed for air traffic specialists and air vehicle control station operators. Lastly, a schedule of Step 1 simulation activities is presented for reference.

Source record↗
NASA NTRS2009

Orbital Debris Research at NASA

The United States has one of the most active programs of research of the orbital debris environment in the world. Much of the research is conducted by NASA s Orbital Debris Program Office at the Johnson Space Center. Past work by NASA has led to the development of national space policy which seeks to limit the growth of the debris population and limit the risk to spacecraft and humans in space and on the Earth from debris. NASA has also been instrumental in developing consistent international policies and standards. Much of NASA's efforts have been to measure and characterize the orbital debris population. The U.S. Department of Defense tracks and catalogs spacecraft and large debris with it's Space Surveillance Network while NASA concentrates on research on smaller debris. In low Earth orbit, NASA has utilized short wavelength radars such as Haystack, HAX, and Goldstone to statistically characterize the population in number, size, altitude, and inclination. For higher orbits, optical telescopes have been used. Much effort has gone into the understanding and removal of observational biases from both types of measurements. NASA is also striving to understand the material composition and shape characteristics of debris to assess these effects on the risk to operational spacecraft. All of these measurements along with data from ground tests provide the basis for near- and long-term modeling of the environment. NASA also develops tools used by spacecraft builders and operators to evaluate spacecraft and mission designs to assess compliance with debris standards and policies which limit the growth of the debris environment.

Stansbery, Eugene G.↗
NASA NTRS2010

Natural-Language Parser for PBEM

A computer program called "Hunter" accepts, as input, a colloquial-English description of a set of policy-based-management rules, and parses that description into a form useable by policy-based enterprise management (PBEM) software. PBEM is a rules-based approach suitable for automating some management tasks. PBEM simplifies the management of a given enterprise through establishment of policies addressing situations that are likely to occur. Hunter was developed to have a unique capability to extract the intended meaning instead of focusing on parsing the exact ways in which individual words are used.

James, Mark↗
NASA NTRS2009

Commercialization is Required for Sustainable Space Exploration and Development

The U.S. Space Exploration policy outlines an exciting new direction in space for human and robotic exploration and development beyond low Earth orbit. Pressed by this new visionary guidance, human civilization will be able to methodically build capabilities to move off Earth and into the solar system in a step-by-step manner, gradually increasing the capability for humans to stay longer in space and move further away from Earth. The new plans call for an implementation that would create an affordable and sustainable program in order to span over generations of explorers, each new generation pushing back the boundaries and building on the foundations laid by the earlier. To create a sustainable program it is important to enable and encourage the development of a selfsupporting commercial space industry leveraging both traditional and non-traditional segments of the industrial base. Governments will not be able to open the space frontier on their own because their goals change over relatively short timescales and because the large costs associated with human spaceflight cannot be sustained. A strong space development industrial sector is needed that can one day support the needs of commercial space enterprises as well as provide capabilities that the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) and other national space agencies can buy to achieve their exploration goals. This new industrial space sector will someday provide fundamental capabilities like communications, power, logistics, and even cargo and human space transportation, just as commercial companies are able to provide these services on Earth today. To help develop and bolster this new space industrial sector, NASA and other national space agencies can enable and facilitate it in many ways, including reducing risk by developing important technologies necessary for commercialization of space, and as a paying customer, partner, or anchor tenant. This transition from all or mostly government developed and operated facilities and services to commercial supplied facilities and services should be considered from the very earliest stages of planning. This paper will first discuss the importance of space commercialization to fulfilling national goals and the associated policy and strategic objectives that will enable space exploration and development. Then the paper will offer insights into how government can provide leadership to promote the nascent commercial space industry. In addition, the paper describes programs and policies already in place at NASA and offers five important principles government can use to strengthen space industry.

Martin, Gary L.↗
NASA NTRS2011

Achieving the Proper Balance Between Crew and Public Safety

A paramount objective of all human-rated launch and reentry vehicle developers is to ensure that the risks to both the crew onboard and the public are minimized within reasonable cost, schedule, and technical constraints. Past experience has shown that proper attention to range safety requirements necessary to ensure public safety must be given early in the design phase to avoid additional operational complexities or threats to the safety of people onboard, and the design engineers must give these requirements the same consideration as crew safety requirements. For human spaceflight, the primary purpose and operational concept for any flight safety system is to protect the public while maximizing the likelihood of crew survival. This paper will outline the policy considerations, technical issues, and operational impacts regarding launch and reentry vehicle failure scenarios where crew and public safety are intertwined and thus addressed optimally in an integrated manner. An overview of existing range and crew safety policy requirements will be presented. Application of these requirements and lessons learned from both the Space Shuttle and Constellation Programs will also be discussed. Using these past programs as examples, the paper will detail operational, design, and analysis approaches to mitigate and balance the risks to people onboard and in the public. Manned vehicle perspectives from the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) and Air Force organizations that oversee public safety will be summarized as well. Finally, the paper will emphasize the need to factor policy, operational, and analysis considerations into the early design trades of new vehicles to help ensure that both crew and public safety are maximized to the greatest extent possible.

Gowan, John↗
NASA NTRS2011

Decoupling of Deforestation and Soy Production in the Southern Amazon During the Late 2000s

From 2006-2010 deforestation in the Amazon frontier state of Mato Grosso decreased to 30% of its historical average (1996-2005) while agricultural production reached an all time high, achieving the oft-cited objective of increasing production while maintaining forest cover. This study combines satellite data with government deforestation and production statistics to assess land-use transitions and potential market and policy drivers associated with these trends. In the forested region of the state, increased soy production from 2001-2005 was entirely due to cropland expansion into previously cleared areas (74%) or forests (26%). From 2006-2010, 78% of production increases were due to expansion (22% to yield increases), with 91% on previously cleared land. Cropland expansion fell from 10% to 2% of deforestation between the two periods, with pasture expansion accounting for most remaining deforestation. Declining deforestation coincided with a collapse of commodity markets and implementation of policy measures to reduce deforestation. Soybean profitability has since increased to pre-2006 levels while deforestation continued to decline, suggesting that anti-deforestation measures may have influenced the agricultural sector. We found little evidence of leakage of soy expansion into cerrado in Mato Grosso or forests in neighboring Amazon states during the late 2000s, although leakage to more distant regions is possible. This study provides empirical evidence that reduced deforestation and increased agricultural production can occur simultaneously in tropical forest frontiers through productive use of already cleared lands. It remains uncertain whether government and industry-led policies can contain deforestation when market conditions again favor a boom in agricultural expansion.

Macedo, Marcia N.↗
NASA NTRS2012

The NASA Heliophysics Active Final Archive at the Space Physics Data Facility

The 2009 NASA Heliophysics Science Data Management Policy re-defined and extended the responsibilities of the Space Physics Data Facility (SPDF) project. Building on SPDF's established capabilities, the new policy assigned the role of active "Final Archive" for non-solar NASA Heliophysics data to SPDF. The policy also recognized and formalized the responsibilities of SPDF as a source for critical infrastructure services such as VSPO to the overall Heliophysics Data Environment (HpDE) and as a Center of Excellence for existing SPDF science-enabling services and software including CDAWeb, SSCWeb/4D Orbit Viewer, OMNIweb and CDF. We will focus this talk to the principles, strategies and planned SPDF architecture to effectively and efficiently perform these roles, with special emphasis on how SPDF will ensure the long-term preservation and ongoing online community access to all the data entrusted to SPDF. We will layout our archival philosophy and what we are advocating in our work with NASA missions both current and future, with potential providers of NASA and NASA-relevant archival data, and to make the data and metadata held by SPDF accessible to other systems and services within the overall HpOE. We will also briefly review our current services, their metrics and our current plans and priorities for their evolution.

McGuire, Robert E.↗
NASA NTRS2007

NASA Range Safety Annual Report 2007

As always, Range Safety has been involved in a number of exciting and challenging activities and events. Throughout the year, we have strived to meet our goal of protecting the public, the workforce, and property during range operations. During the past year, Range Safety was involved in the development, implementation, and support of range safety policy. Range Safety training curriculum development was completed this year and several courses were presented. Tailoring exercises concerning the Constellation Program were undertaken with representatives from the Constellation Program, the 45th Space Wing, and the Launch Constellation Range Safety Panel. Range Safety actively supported the Range Commanders Council and it subgroups and remained involved in updating policy related to flight safety systems and flight safety analysis. In addition, Range Safety supported the Space Shuttle Range Safety Panel and addressed policy concerning unmanned aircraft systems. Launch operations at Kennedy Space Center, the Eastern and Western ranges, Dryden Flight Research Center, and Wallops Flight Facility were addressed. Range Safety was also involved in the evaluation of a number of research and development efforts, including the space-based range (formerly STARS), the autonomous flight safety system, the enhanced flight termination system, and the joint advanced range safety system. Flight safety system challenges were evaluated. Range Safety's role in the Space Florida Customer Assistance Service Program for the Eastern Range was covered along with our support for the Space Florida Educational Balloon Release Program. We hope you have found the web-based format both accessible and easy to use. Anyone having questions or wishing to have an article included in the 2008 Range Safety Annual Report should contact Alan Dumont, the NASA Range Safety Program Manager located at the Kennedy Space Center, or Michael Dook at NASA Headquarters.

Dumont, Alan G.↗
NASA NTRS2013

NASA Activity Update for the 2013 Unmanned Vehicle Systems International (UVSI) Yearbook

This year s report offers a high level perspective on some of the UAS related activities in which NASA is involved, both internal and external to the agency. Internally, NASA issued UAS operational policy on certification of NASA UAS and aircrew. A team of NASA UAS experts and operators analyzed all current procedures and best practices to design the policy. An update to the agencies Aircraft Operations Management Manual incorporated a new chapter to address UAS planning, preflight operations, flight operations, flight crew requirements, airworthiness and flight safety reviews. NASA UAS are classified into three categories based on weight and airspeed. Aircrews, including observers, are classified by how they interface with the UAS, and the policy defines qualifications, training, and currency. The NASA flight readiness approval process identifies risks and mitigations in order to reduce the likelihood and/or consequence of the risk to an acceptable level. The UAS operations process incorporates all aspects of airworthiness, flight standards and range safety exactly the same processes used for NASA manned aircraft operations. NASA has two internal organizations that routinely operate UAS. The Science Mission Directorate utilizes UAS as part of its Airborne Science Program and is the most frequent operator of NASA UAS in both national and international airspace. The Aeronautics Research Mission Directorate conducts UAS flight operations in addition to conducting research important to the UAS community. This past year the Science Mission Directorate supported the Hurricane and Severe Storm Sentimental (HS3) Mission with two NASA Global Hawk platforms. HS3 is a five-year mission specifically targeted to investigate the processes that underlie hurricane formation. During the 2012 portion of this mission the Global Hawk overflew hurricanes Leslie and Nadine in the Atlantic Ocean completing 6 flights and accumulating more than 148 flight hours. Another multi-year mission was initiated last year when the Sensor Integrated Environmental Remote Research Aircraft (SIERRA) UAS began surveying faults in California s Surprise Valley. A team of scientists and engineers from the United States Geological Survey (USGS), NASA Ames Research Center, Central Washington University, and Carnegie Mellon University will measure magnetic fields using ground surveys and the SIERRA to map the geophysics below the surface of Surprise Valley. The data collected will be used to generate 3D maps of the geophysical data of the area. The Aeronautics Mission Directorate continues its collaboration with Boeing to conduct UAS flight operations of the X-48C, a modified version of the X-48B originally built by Cranfield Aerospace, United Kingdom. The Aeronautics Mission Directorate utilizes vehicles of this size for a wide variety of research studies. Most of these operations are conducted within restricted airspace. The Aeronautics Research Mission Directorate also sponsors the UAS in the National Airspace System (NAS) Project, which is working in close cooperation with the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) to address critical challenges associated with routine UAS operations in civil airspace. The project is focused on separation assurance and collision avoidance systems and algorithms, command and control for non-military operations including spectrum allocation requirements, human system interaction issues, and safety and certification topics.

Bauer, Jeffrey E.↗
NASA NTRS2014

Agent Based Modeling of Air Carrier Behavior for Evaluation of Technology Equipage and Adoption

As part of ongoing research, the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) and LMI developed a research framework to assist policymakers in identifying impacts on the U.S. air transportation system (ATS) of potential policies and technology related to the implementation of the Next Generation Air Transportation System (NextGen). This framework, called the Air Transportation System Evolutionary Simulation (ATS-EVOS), integrates multiple models into a single process flow to best simulate responses by U.S. commercial airlines and other ATS stakeholders to NextGen-related policies, and in turn, how those responses impact the ATS. Development of this framework required NASA and LMI to create an agent-based model of airline and passenger behavior. This Airline Evolutionary Simulation (AIRLINE-EVOS) models airline decisions about tactical airfare and schedule adjustments, and strategic decisions related to fleet assignments, market prices, and equipage. AIRLINE-EVOS models its own heterogeneous population of passenger agents that interact with airlines; this interaction allows the model to simulate the cycle of action-reaction as airlines compete with each other and engage passengers. We validated a baseline configuration of AIRLINE-EVOS against Airline Origin and Destination Survey (DB1B) data and subject matter expert opinion, and we verified the ATS-EVOS framework and agent behavior logic through scenario-based experiments. These experiments demonstrated AIRLINE-EVOS's capabilities in responding to an input price shock in fuel prices, and to equipage challenges in a series of analyses based on potential incentive policies for best equipped best served, optimal-wind routing, and traffic management initiative exemption concepts..

Horio, Brant M.↗
NASA NTRS2009

A Systems Approach to Lower Cost Missions: Following the Rideshare Paradigm

Small-satellite rideshare capabilities and opportunities for low-cost access to space have been evolving over the past 10 years. Small space launch vehicle technology is rapidly being developed and demonstrated, including the Minotaur series and the Space X Falcon, among others, along with the lower cost launch facilities at Alaska's Kodiak Launch Complex, NASA's Wallops Flight Facility, and the Reagan Test Site in the Pacific. Demonstrated capabilities for the launch of multiple payloads have increased (and continue to increase) significantly. This will allow more efficient and cost-effective use of the various launch opportunities, including utilizing the excess capacity of the emerging Evolved Expendable Launch Vehicle (EELV)-based missions. The definition of standardized interfaces and processes, along with various user guides and payload implementation plans, has been developed and continues to be refined. Top-level agency policies for the support of low-cost access to space for small experimental payloads, such as the DoD policy structure on auxiliary payloads, have been defined and provide the basis for the continued refinement and implementation of these evolving technologies. Most importantly, the coordination and cooperative interfaces between the various stakeholders continues to evolve. The degree of this coordination and technical interchange is demonstrated by the wide stakeholder participation at the recent 2008 Small Payload Rideshare Workshop, held at NASA's Wallops Flight Facility. This annual workshop has been the major platform for coordination and technical interchange within the rideshare community and with the various sponsoring agencies. These developments have provided the foundation for a robust low-cost small payload rideshare capability. However, the continued evolution, sustainment, and utilization of these capabilities will require continued stakeholder recognition, support, and nourishing. Ongoing, coordinated effort, partnering, and support between stakeholders is essential to acquire the improved organizational processes and efficiencies required to meet the needs of the growing small payload community for low-cost access to space. Further, a mix of capabilities developed within the space community for Operationally Responsive Space, an international committee investigating space systems cross-compatibility, and an industry-based organization seeking small satellite "standardization" all work toward a new paradigm: sharing or leveraging resources amongst multiple users. The challenge: where are those users, and what is the best way to leverage them? What is leveraged-mass, power, cost-sharing? And how does one sort through these options? What policies may prevent the use of some options? Who are the "other users" that might share or leverage capabilities? This paper presents a systematic look at both the users and the launch options, and suggests a way forward.

access to space↗
NASA NTRS2016

EDL Pathfinder Missions

NASA is developing a long‐term strategy for achieving extended human missions to Mars in support of the policies outlined in the 2010 NASA Authorization Act and National Space Policy. The Authorization Act states that "A long term objective for human exploration of space should be the eventual international exploration of Mars." Echoing this is the National Space Policy, which directs that NASA should, "By 2025, begin crewed missions beyond the moon, including sending humans to an asteroid. By the mid‐2030s, send humans to orbit Mars and return them safely to Earth." Further defining this goal, NASA's 2014 Strategic Plan identifies that "Our long‐term goal is to send humans to Mars. Over the next two decades, we will develop and demonstrate the technologies and capabilities needed to send humans to explore the red planet and safely return them to Earth." Over the past several decades numerous assessments regarding human exploration of Mars have indicated that landing humans on the surface of Mars remains one of the key critical challenges. In 2015 NASA initiated an Agency‐wide assessment of the challenges associated with Entry, Descent, and Landing (EDL) of large payloads necessary for supporting human exploration of Mars. Due to the criticality and long‐lead nature of advancing EDL techniques, it is necessary to determine an appropriate strategy to improve the capability to land large payloads. This paper provides an overview of NASA's 2015 EDL assessment on understanding the key EDL risks with a focus on determining what "must" be tested at Mars. This process identified the various risks and potential risk mitigation strategies, that is, benefits of flight demonstration at Mars relative to terrestrial test, modeling, and analysis. The goal of the activity was to determine if a subscale demonstrator is necessary, or if NASA should take a direct path to a human‐scale lander. This assessment also provided insight into how EDL advancements align with other Agency Mars lander activities such as the technology portfolio investments and post‐2020 robotic Mars Exploration Program missions.

Drake, Bret G.↗
NASA NTRS2016

Considerations in Managing the Fill Rate of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam Reservoir Using a System Dynamics Approach.

The purpose of this study is to evaluate simulated fill rate scenarios for the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam while taking into account plausible climate change outcomes for the Nile River Basin. The region lacks a comprehensive equitable water resource management strategy, which creates regional security concerns and future possible conflicts. We employ climate estimates from 33 general circulation models within a system dynamics model as a step in moving toward a feasible regional water resource management strategy. We find that annual reservoir fill rates of 8-15% are capable of building hydroelectric capacity in Ethiopia while concurrently ensuring a minimum level of stream flow disruption into Egypt before 2039. Insofar as climate change estimates suggest a modest average increase in stream flow into the Aswan, climate changes through 2039 are unlikely to affect the fill rate policies. However, larger fill rates will have a more detrimental effect on stream flow into the Aswan, particularly beyond a policy of 15%. While this study demonstrates that a technical solution for reservoir fill rates is feasible, the corresponding policy challenge is political. Implementation of water resource management strategies in the Nile River Basin specifically and Africa generally will necessitate a national and regional willingness to cooperate.

system dynamics↗
NASA NTRS2018

Identifying Climate-Smart Agriculture Research Needs

Climate-smart agriculture (CSA) is an approach to help agricultural systems worldwide, concurrently addressing three challenge areas: increased adaptation to climate change, mitigation of climate change, and ensuring global food security - through innovative policies, practices, and financing. It involves a set of objectives and multiple transformative transitions for which there are newly identified knowledge gaps. We address these questions raised by CSA within three areas: conceptualization, implementation, and implications for policy and decision-makers. We also draw up scenarios on the future of the CSA concept in relation to the 4 per 1000 Initiative (Soils for Food Security and Climate) launched at UNFCCC 21st Conference of the Parties (COP 21). Our analysis shows that there is still a need for further interdisciplinary research on the theoretical foundation of the CSA concept and on the necessary transformations of agriculture and land use systems. Contrasting views about implementation indicate that CSA focus on the ''triple win'' (adaptation, mitigation, food security) needs to be assessed in terms of science-based practices. CSA policy tools need to incorporate an integrated set of measures supported by reliable metrics. Environmental and social safeguards are necessary to make sure that CSA initiatives conform to the principles of sustainability, both at the agriculture and food system levels.

mitigation↗