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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 1,675 records · Page 93
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS1996

Predictions of malaria vector distribution in Belize based on multispectral satellite data

Use of multispectral satellite data to predict arthropod-borne disease trouble spots is dependent on clear understandings of environmental factors that determine the presence of disease vectors. A blind test of remote sensing-based predictions for the spatial distribution of a malaria vector, Anopheles pseudopunctipennis, was conducted as a follow-up to two years of studies on vector-environmental relationships in Belize. Four of eight sites that were predicted to be high probability locations for presence of An. pseudopunctipennis were positive and all low probability sites (0 of 12) were negative. The absence of An. pseudopunctipennis at four high probability locations probably reflects the low densities that seem to characterize field populations of this species, i.e., the population densities were below the threshold of our sampling effort. Another important malaria vector, An. darlingi, was also present at all high probability sites and absent at all low probability sites. Anopheles darlingi, like An. pseudopunctipennis, is a riverine species. Prior to these collections at ecologically defined locations, this species was last detected in Belize in 1946.

Non-NASA Center↗
DOE OSTI2021

A proposed criteria to identify wind turbine drivetrain bearing loads that induce roller slip based white-etching cracks

In this article, the type of roller slip behavior that may result in the formation of white-etching cracks (WECs) in wind turbine gearbox bearings is identified. A new hypothesis based on the inner raceway normal contact load magnitude at the time of roller slip is proposed as the probable cause of WECs. For this purpose, the maximum normal contact loads are identified when roller slip occurs in high-speed shaft bearings at different mean wind speeds. Subsequently, the annual probability of occurrence of the maximum normal loads are obtained. The probability of maximum load under slip exceeding a limit probability is hypothesized as a probable cause for WEC. In order to apply the proposed hypothesis, two different wind turbines high-speed shaft bearings are used: the cylindrical roller bearing of the General Electric 1.5 SLE turbine and the tapered roller bearing of Vestas V52 turbine. Both the chosen bearings are on the generator side of the high-speed shaft. For both turbines, measurement data together with analytical models are used for identifying the slip and the maximum normal contact loads. We propose forecasting the probability of exceedance of a threshold maximum normal contact load level during slip to identify the possibility for inducing WECs.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2019

Risk Assessment of Hydrogen Fuel Cell Electric Vehicles in Tunnels

The need to understand the risks and implications of traffic incidents involving hydrogen fuel cell electric vehicles in tunnels is increasing in importance with higher numbers of these vehicles being deployed. A risk analysis was performed to capture potential scenarios that could occur in the event of a crash and provide a quantitative calculation for the probability of each scenario occurring, with a qualitative categorization of possible consequences. The risk analysis was structured using an event sequence diagram with probability distributions on each event in the tree and random sampling was used to estimate resulting probability distributions for each end-state scenario. Here, the most likely consequence of a crash is no additional hazard from the hydrogen fuel (98.1–99.9% probability) beyond the existing hazards in a vehicle crash, although some factors need additional data and study to validate. These scenarios include minor crashes with no release or ignition of hydrogen. When the hydrogen does ignite, it is most likely a jet flame from the pressure relief device release due to a hydrocarbon fire (0.03–1.8% probability). This work represents a detailed assessment of the state-of-knowledge of the likelihood associated with various vehicle crash scenarios. This is used in an event sequence framework with uncertainty propagation to estimate uncertainty around the probability of each scenario occurring.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗
DOE OSTI2016

Local and Global Function Model of the Liver

Purpose: To develop a local and global function model in the liver based on regional and organ function measurements to support individualized adaptive radiation therapy (RT). Methods and Materials: A local and global model for liver function was developed to include both functional volume and the effect of functional variation of subunits. Adopting the assumption of parallel architecture in the liver, the global function was composed of a sum of local function probabilities of subunits, varying between 0 and 1. The model was fit to 59 datasets of liver regional and organ function measures from 23 patients obtained before, during, and 1 month after RT. The local function probabilities of subunits were modeled by a sigmoid function in relating to MRI-derived portal venous perfusion values. The global function was fitted to a logarithm of an indocyanine green retention rate at 15 minutes (an overall liver function measure). Cross-validation was performed by leave-m-out tests. The model was further evaluated by fitting to the data divided according to whether the patients had hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) or not. Results: The liver function model showed that (1) a perfusion value of 68.6 mL/(100 g · min) yielded a local function probability of 0.5; (2) the probability reached 0.9 at a perfusion value of 98 mL/(100 g · min); and (3) at a probability of 0.03 [corresponding perfusion of 38 mL/(100 g · min)] or lower, the contribution to global function was lost. Cross-validations showed that the model parameters were stable. The model fitted to the data from the patients with HCC indicated that the same amount of portal venous perfusion was translated into less local function probability than in the patients with non-HCC tumors. Conclusions: The developed liver function model could provide a means to better assess individual and regional dose-responses of hepatic functions, and provide guidance for individualized treatment planning of RT.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗
DOE OSTI2022

CAMERA: A method for cost-aware, adaptive, multifidelity, efficient reliability analysis

Estimating probability of failure in aerospace systems is a critical requirement for flight certification and qualification. Failure probability estimation involves resolving tails of probability distributions, and Monte Carlo sampling methods are intractable when expensive high-fidelity simulations have to be queried. Here, we propose a method to use models of multiple fidelities that trade accuracy for computational efficiency. Specifically, we propose the use of multifidelity Gaussian process models to efficiently fuse models at multiple fidelity, thereby offering a cheap surrogate model that emulates the original model at all fidelities. Furthermore, we propose a novel sequential acquisition function based experiment design framework that can automatically select samples from appropriate fidelity models to make predictions about quantities of interest at the highest fidelity. We use our proposed approach in an importance sampling setting and demonstrate our method on the failure level set and probability estimation on synthetic test functions and two real-world applications, namely, the reliability analysis of a gas turbine engine blade using a finite element method and a transonic aerodynamic wing test case using Reynolds-averaged Navier-Stokes equations. We show that our method predicts the failure boundary and probability more accurately and at a fraction of the computational cost compared with using just a single expensive high-fidelity model. Finally, we show that our sequential approach is guaranteed to asymptotically converge to the true failure boundary with high probability.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2014

Radiobiologic comparison of helical tomotherapy, intensity modulated radiotherapy, and conformal radiotherapy in treating lung cancer accounting for secondary malignancy risks

The aim of the present study is to examine the importance of using measures to predict the risk of inducing secondary malignancies in association with the clinical effectiveness of treatment plans in terms of tumor control and normal tissue complication probabilities. This is achieved by using radiobiologic parameters and measures, which may provide a closer association between clinical outcome and treatment delivery. Overall, 4 patients having been treated for lung cancer were examined. For each of them, 3 treatment plans were developed based on the helical tomotherapy (HT), multileaf collimator-based intensity modulated radiation therapy (IMRT), and 3-dimensional conformal radiation therapy (CRT) modalities. The different plans were evaluated using the complication-free tumor control probability (p{sub +}), the overall probability of injury (p{sub I}), the overall probability of control/benefit (p{sub B}), and the biologically effective uniform dose (D{sup ¯¯}). These radiobiologic measures were used to develop dose-response curves (p-D{sup ¯¯} diagram), which can help to evaluate different treatment plans when used in conjunction with standard dosimetric criteria. The risks for secondary malignancies in the heart and the contralateral lung were calculated for the 3 radiation modalities based on the corresponding dose-volume histograms (DVHs) of each patient. Regarding the overall evaluation of the different radiation modalities based on the p{sub +} index, the average values of the HT, IMRT, and CRT are 67.3%, 61.2%, and 68.2%, respectively. The corresponding average values of p{sub B} are 75.6%, 70.5%, and 71.0%, respectively, whereas the average values of p{sub I} are 8.3%, 9.3%, and 2.8%, respectively. Among the organs at risk (OARs), lungs show the highest probabilities for complications, which are 7.1%, 8.0%, and 1.3% for the HT, IMRT, and CRT modalities, respectively. Similarly, the biologically effective prescription doses (D{sub B}{sup ¯¯}) for the HT, IMRT, and CRT modalities are 64.0, 60.9, and 60.8 Gy, respectively. Regarding the risk for secondary cancer, for the heart, the lowest average risk is produced by IMRT (0.10%) compared with the HT (0.17%) and CRT (0.12%) modalities, whereas the 3 radiation modalities show almost equivalent results regarding the contralateral lung (0.8% for HT, 0.9% for IMRT, and 0.9% for CRT). The use of radiobiologic parameters in the evaluation of different treatment plans and estimation of their expected clinical outcome is shown to provide very useful clinical information. The radiobiologic analysis of the response probabilities showed that different radiation modalities appear to be more effective in different patient geometries and target sizes and locations. Furthermore, there is not a clear pattern between the plans that appear to be more effective for the treatment and the risk of secondary malignancy. It seems that radiobiologically based treatment planning taking into account the risk of secondary cancer can be established as an effective clinical tool for a more clinically relevant treatment optimization.

61 RADIATION PROTECTION AND DOSIMETRY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Prognostic model and failure mechanisms of steam generators in Sodium-Cooled fast reactors

This paper presents a prognostic model for sodium-cooled fast reactor (SFR) steam generators (SGs). Here, the purpose of the model is to estimate the remaining useful life of SFR SGs and thus to support the decision-making of autonomous control. SFR SGs are of great interest for plant integrity due to their harsh operation environment. They operate at higher temperatures and higher coolant-to-steam pressure differences than those of current light water reactors (LWR). The severity of the SFR SG failure consequences, which include water-sodium contact, is another reason. Understanding its failure mechanisms is important for the development of its prognostic model. Based on our literature review and physics-based analysis, we concluded that creep would be a dominant degradation mode of SFR SGs due to SFR’s high-temperature and high-pressure environment. Thus, creep is the focus of the prognostic model. Various other failure modes were also investigated in this study. The mechanical fatigue due to flow-induced vibration is usually observed in early developmental phases and would not be an important issue during normal operation. The thermal fatigue due to thermal stripping is occasionally observed in other components in SFRs but does not affect SG integrity. Pure water stress corrosive crack, fretting, and so on are commonly observed in LWR SGs but are significantly less important in SFR SGs because of the high temperatures, high pressure differences, and chemical properties of liquid sodium. Based on these investigations, a prognostic model focusing on creep failures was developed. It estimates the failure probability profile by sampling the Larson-Miller parameter (LMP) and temperature and associated uncertainties through Monte Carlo methods. Two case studies were presented. The first one demonstrated the model’s capability to calculate the failure probability for a new specimen within a given time. If the tube is working under temperatures of 500C ± 3 and pressures of 15.2 MPa, which leads to LMP of 20,100 ± 50, the failure probabilities within 50, 70, and 90 years are approximately 0.1 %, 3.2 %, and 17.5 %. The second demonstrated how adjusting the workload can help to protect the integrity of the component. For an old tube reaching 99 % of its lifespan, continuing to run at temperatures of 500C ± 3 and LMP of 20,100 ± 50 leads to a failure probability of about 29.0 % within a year. If the temperature is reduced by 5C, the failure probability can be reduced to 2.5 %, and, if the pressure is also reduced such that the LMP is increased by 100, the failure probability can further be reduced to 0.12 %.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗
DOE OSTI2019

Coincidence Risk Analysis of Floods Using Multivariate Copulas: Case Study of Jinsha River and Min River, China

The coincidence of floods on the mainstream and its tributary may cause significant flood damages at downstream of the confluence. In this study, the coincidence risks of flood magnitudes and occurrence dates on Jinsha River and Min River, China were analyzed using multivariate copulas. The Pearson Type III (P-III) distribution and the Mixed von Mises distribution were selected to establish the marginal distributions of flood magnitude and occurrence date, respectively. The Clayton copula and Gumbel-Hougaard (GH) copula functions were then used to establish the joint probability distributions of flood magnitudes and occurrence dates of Jinsha River and Min River, respectively. The coincidence probabilities of flood magnitudes and occurrence dates on Jinsha River and Min River were investigated, and the interval of Annual Maximum (AM) flood occurrence dates of the two rivers was also analyzed. The results show that the higher coincidence probabilities of flood occurrence dates of the two rivers occur in the period from mid-June to early September, with three peaks of coincidence probability occurring on 28 th July, 14 th August, and 31 st August, respectively. The coincidence probability of flood magnitudes for 0.1%, 0.2%, 1%, 5%, and 10% design floods are 1.651×10-8, 6.601×10-8, 1.647×10-6, 4.071×10-5, and 1.606×10-4, respectively. The probability of AM flood occurrence date of Jinsha River and Min River with a time interval of ±3 days is 10.16%. These results can provide guidance for the reservoir operation of Xiluodu-Xiangjiaba cascade reservoirs and offer reference for flood control and disaster reduction at downstream of the confluence.

Peng, Yang↗
DOE OSTI2023

Moving Beyond Mortality: Development and Application of a Desirability of Outcome Ranking (DOOR) Endpoint for Hospital-Acquired Bacterial Pneumonia and Ventilator-Associated Bacterial Pneumonia

Abstract Background Hospital-acquired and ventilator-associated bacterial pneumonia (HABP/VABP) are frequently caused by multidrug-resistant organisms. Patient-centered endpoints in clinical trials are needed to develop new antibiotics for HABP/VABP. Desirability of outcome ranking (DOOR) is a paradigm for the design, analysis, and interpretation of clinical trials based on a patient-centered, benefit-risk evaluation. Methods A multidisciplinary committee created an infectious diseases DOOR endpoint customized for HABP/VABP, incorporating infectious complications, serious adverse events, and mortality. We applied this to 2 previously completed, large randomized controlled trials for HABP/VABP. ZEPHyR compared vancomycin to linezolid and VITAL compared linezolid to tedizolid. For each trial, we evaluated the DOOR distribution and probability, including DOOR component and partial credit analyses. We also applied DOOR in subgroup analyses. Results In both trials, the HABP/VABP DOOR demonstrated similar overall clinical outcomes between treatment groups. In ZEPHyR, the probability that a participant treated with linezolid would have a more desirable outcome than a participant treated with vancomycin was 50.2% (95% confidence interval [CI], 45.1%­−55.3%). In VITAL, the probability that a participant treated with tedizolid would have a more desirable outcome than a participant treated with linezolid was 48.7% (95% CI, 44.8%–52.6%). The DOOR component analysis revealed that participants treated with tedizolid had a less desirable outcome than those treated with linezolid when considering clinical response alone. However, participants with decreased renal function had improved overall outcomes with tedizolid. Conclusions The HABP/VABP DOOR provided more granular information about clinical outcomes than is typically presented in clinical trials. HABP/VABP trials would benefit from prospectively using DOOR.

Immunology↗
DOE OSTI2018

Reactivity of heterogeneous surfaces: Modeling precursor–surface interaction using absorbing Markov chains

Heterogeneous reactive surfaces involving a spatial distribution of reactive sites are ubiquitous in thin film growth, from defect nucleation to step flow growth. In this work, the interaction of gas phase species with heterogeneous reactive surfaces was explored using a model combining absorbing Markov chains and local balance equations. Through this model, single particle statistics can be extracted of the adsorption-diffusion-desorption/reaction process even beyond the transport-limited regime, where the surface coverage of adsorbates, and hence adsorbate-adsorbate interaction, is not negligible, and local rates can be connected with macroscopic quantities, such as the sticking probability and desorption rates. In the transport-limited regime, a similarity law was identified for the sticking probability for both step flow growth and nucleation on randomly distributed reactive sites in which the sticking probability is a function of the product of the local diffusion and reaction probabilities. Lastly, the model can be applied to extract local reactivity maps providing the probability that a particle adsorbing on a given site reacts with the surface. This allows one to explore the development of capture zones and the impact of site-blocking and desorption on the local sticking probabilities.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2013

Decision Analysis Methods For the Analysis of Nuclear Terrorism Threats with Imperfect Information

Protection of commercial nuclear fuel cycles against adversary groups who may attempt to steal weapons-usable material is an issue of interest to the U.S. Department of Energy, Office of Nuclear Energy. The wide array of potential nuclear fuel cycle configurations and the security measures that could be deployed to protect them pose a daunting system design problem. In general, there are billions of potential design configurations. Moreover, the design choices are not independent – the effectiveness of one design feature or security measure can affect the desirability of other design choices. To explore this issue, we develop a mixed-integer optimization problem that solves a complex decision tree to allocate security resources across a commercial nuclear fuel cycle configuration. A nominal UREX+ reprocessing facility is used to demonstrate how the model allocates resources across a particular fuel cycle facility and shows how the problem can be scaled up to include other facilities and design features in the fuel cycle. In our model, the defender first chooses a set of safeguards to implement in order to mitigate the risk of a terrorist theft from various unit operations in the reprocessing facility. The attacker observes the defender’s strategy choice and executes an attack to acquire material, including the possibility of declining to attack at all. The model considers the terrorist as an intelligent adversary with a set of attack strategies known to the defender. The strategic choices made by both the defender and attacker affect the probability of a successful attack by the terrorist and in turn affect the distribution of consequences to the defender. We use a decision tree to illustrate the interactions among costs, decisions, correlated uncertainties, and outcomes, and then show how to formulate the problem as a mixed-integer program with an equivalent solution. The novel features of our formulation include the following. First, as discussed above, we use a sequential game-theoretic formulation (a Stackelberg game). This formulation assumes the attacker can observe the defender’s actions before the attack is executed. Many previous game-theoretic studies have assumed attacker and defender act simultaneously without knowledge of the other’s strategy choice. We believe the sequential game formulation is more applicable for knowledgeable insider adversaries, the focus of this study. Second, we build on our previous work that has developed a methodology to reflect the correlation among probability distributions represented as discrete chance nodes in a decision tree. We illustrate how this methodology can be applied to two chance nodes in a decision tree that relate the quality of the materials that might be stolen or diverted by an adversary with the yield of a weapon that might be constructed from that material. In a decision tree, the dependence of the yield on the quality of the material could be modeled with conditional probabilities of the weapon yield given the quality of the materials obtained. For three outcome discretizations, this would require the assessment of nine conditional probabilities from domain experts as part of the model building effort. In contrast, our methodology will allow this same representation of the tree based on the assessment of the correlation between these two chance nodes by the experts, which we believe is a much easier and more reliable assessment task. The advantage of this approach increases as the number of dependent chance nodes grows in a decision tree representation of this problem. Third, we extend this approach to the approximation of the dependence between discrete binary events such as success or failure represented by binary chance nodes in a decision tree or in the special case of a probabilistic risk analysis (PRA) based on an event tree. This extension is a novel application in this domain, and uses Monte Carlo simulation to determine the appropriate conditional probabilities on the binary chance nodes when the number of correlated uncertainties is more than two. Fourth, we show how these decision trees or probability trees can be formulated and solved as equivalent integer programming (IP) problems. The advantages of the IP representation include the opportunity to use the computing power associated with powerful optimization solver algorithms available on high speed computers to solve very large versions of these trees, and the ability to include several such models of different facilities into a much larger IP with connecting constraints that represent budget restrictions, number of available inspection opportunities in a given time window, or other dependencies among these facilities. Policy makers can use the resulting model to inform their decisions about how to assess terrorism risk and to safeguard the commercial nuclear fuel cycle.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2019

Assessment of the Geomechanical Risks Associated with CO 2 Injection at the FutureGen 2.0 Site: Application of the State of Stress Assessment Tool (SOSAT)

This report presents the results of the application of the State of Stress Assessment Tool (SOSAT) on the FutureGen 2.0 data set. SOSAT was developed as part of the National Risk Assessment Partnership (NRAP) project and provides a unique integrated framework for estimating the state of stress probability distribution at a given depth in the subsurface and evaluating the risk of induced shear and tensile failure resulting from the injection of carbon dioxide (CO 2 ). The approach implemented by SOSAT is based on two deterministic and widely used methods of determining the state of stress (i.e., stress polygon and one-dimensional tectonic-elastic approach). These methods have been modified using a probabilistic approach to account for uncertainties in the input parameters. The methodology proposed in SOSAT was demonstrated using the data obtained for the FutureGen 2.0 project located in the Illinois Basin. Although the FutureGen 2.0 project was suspended by the U.S. Department of Energy prior to the start of injection operations, the extensive characterization efforts undertaken at the storage site have yielded a considerable amount of valuable data about this part of the sedimentary basin. The FutureGen 2.0 storage site was designed to accommodate the injection of 1.1 million metric tons of CO 2 per year over a 20-year period. The injection of CO 2 and the associated pressure buildup in the reservoir is expected to alter the state of stress over the course of the injection. These changes in the initial stress state may affect fault stability and potentially lead to the unintentional creation of hydraulic fractures, which could pose a leakage risk if not contained within the reservoir. Assessing these risks is critical to making informed decisions about the characterization, management of the injection operation, and monitoring of the storage site. The data required by SOSAT for the geomechanical assessment of the FutureGen 2.0 site were identified, and the methodology proposed in SOSAT was followed to evaluate the probability of reactivating critically oriented faults or potentially creating hydraulic fractures in the reservoir. The results of the geomechanical analysis performed using the SOSAT led to the following conclusions. 1. The probability distribution of the state of stress indicates significant uncertainties in the magnitude of the maximum horizontal stress S Hmax , while the minimum horizontal stress S hmin is well constrained by the stress measurements conducted during the characterization efforts at the storage site. This uncertainty in the magnitude of S Hmax is a common challenge and has significant implications for geomechanical risk at sites like FutureGen 2.0 where a strike-slip tectonic regime exists. 2. The probability that the Mount Simon reservoir was initially critically stressed is relatively high—25%. When the pore pressure increases to the maximum allowable pressure permitted under the Underground Injection Control Class VI regulation of the FutureGen 2.0 project, the risk of shear failure approaches a probability of 43%. These relatively high probabilities reflect the current state of information about the geomechanical conditions in this part of the Illinois Basin. For future operations in this basin this should be a high characterization priority because it could significantly lower the risk of operations. 3. Based on the maximum injection pressure allowed in the UIC Class VI, the risk of unintentional hydraulic fracturing is limited. The risk of shear failure as determined by SOSAT is based on a very conservative approach assuming that critically oriented faults exist in the subsurface. While no faults have been formally identified at the FutureGen 2.0 site, the results obtained with SOSAT using the FutureGen 2.0 data set highlight the importance of integrating uncertainties in critical parameters to quantify geomechanical risks in a defensible way. Should SOSAT have been available at the time the characterization activities were being planned, more characterization efforts would have been implemented to reduce the uncertainties on the magnitude of the maximum horizontal stress, and to dismiss with confidence the potential existence of a critically-oriented fault in the reservoir (e.g., 3D seismic survey).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1987

Determine precipitation rates from visible and infrared satellite images of clouds by pattern recognition technique

A more advanced cloud pattern analysis algorithm was subsequently developed to take the shape and brightness of the various clouds into account in a manner that is more consistent with the human analyst's perception of GOES cloud imagery. The results of that classification scheme were compared with precipitation probabilities observed from ships of opportunity off the U.S. east coast to derive empirical regressions between cloud types and precipitation probability. The cloud morphology was then quantitatively and objectively used to map precipitation probabilities during two winter months during which severe cold air outbreaks were observed over the northwest Atlantic. Precipitation probabilities associated with various cloud types are summarized. Maps of precipitation probability derived from the cloud morphology analysis program for two months and the precipitation probability derived from thirty years of ship observation were observed.

Weinman, James A.↗
NASA NTRS1987

WHAMII - An enumeration and insertion procedure with binomial bounds for the stochastic time-constrained traveling salesman problem

This paper presents an algorithm (WHAMII) designed to solve the Artificial Intelligence Design Challenge at the 1987 AIAA Guidance, Navigation and Control Conference. The problem under consideration is a stochastic generalization of the traveling salesman problem in which travel costs can incur a penalty with a given probability. The variability in travel costs leads to a probability constraint with respect to violating the budget allocation. Given the small size of the problem (eleven cities), an approach is considered that combines partial tour enumeration with a heuristic city insertion procedure. For computational efficiency during both the enumeration and insertion procedures, precalculated binomial probabilities are used to determine an upper bound on the actual probability of violating the budget constraint for each tour. The actual probability is calculated for the final best tour, and additional insertions are attempted until the actual probability exceeds the bound.

Dahl, Roy W.↗
NASA NTRS1988

Assessment of the effects of space debris and meteoroids environment on the space station solar array assembly

The methodology used to assess the probability of no impact of space debris and meteoroids on a spacecraft structure is applied to the Space Station solar array assembly. Starting with the space debris and meteoroids flux models, the projected surface area of the solar cell string circuit of the solar array panel and the mast longeron, and the design lifetime, the possibility of no impact on the solar array mast and solar cell string circuits was determined as a function of particle size. The probability of no impact on the cell string circuits was used to derive the probability of no open circuit panel. The probability of meeting a certain power requirement at the end of the design lifetime was then calculated as a function of impacting particle size. Coupled with a penetration and damage models/correlations which relate the particle size to the penetration depth and damage, the results of this analysis can be used to determine the probability of meeting the lower power requirement given a degree of redundancy, and the probability of no impact on the solar array mast.

Nahra, Henry K.↗
NASA NTRS1988

Assessment of the effects of space debris and meteoroids environment on the Space Station solar array assembly

The methodology used to assess the probability of no impact of space debris and meteoroids on a spacecraft structure is applied to the Space Station solar array assembly. Starting with space debris and meteoroid flux models, the projected surface area of the solar cell string circuit of the solar array panel and the mast longeron, and the design lifetime, the possibility of no impact on the solar mast and solar cell string circuits was determined as a function of particle size. The probability of no impact on the cell string circuits was used to derive the probability of no open circuit panel. The probability of meeting a certain power requirement at the end of the design lifetime was then calculated as a function of impacting particle size. Coupled with a penetration and damage models/correlations which relate the particle size to penetration depth and damage, the results of this analysis can be used to determine the probability of meeting the lower power requirement given a degree of redundancy, and the probability of no impact on the solar array mast.

Nahra, Henry K.↗
NASA NTRS1989

PRIME: A bottom-up approach to probabilistic rule development

PRIME is a system to be used by an intelligent machine to allow it to operate in an abstract but uncertain (or stochastic) environment. It maintains a model of the effects of the machine's actions in the form of a rule base, which is induced from experience. This bottom-up approach to rule development allows the model to adapt to changes in the environment. Each rule consists of a condition under which the rule is active, an action, the effect of the action on the environment, and an estimate of the probability of this effect occurring. The effect probabilities are used to model the uncertainty in the environment, permitting multiple possible effects for a single action under a particular set of conditions. The objective of the intelligent machine is to satisfy user-specified goals with maximum probability of success. PRIME fulfills this requirement in two ways: it continuously updates the rule base with the most recent information, to ensure the validity of the model; and it generates plans which have the maximum probability of achieving the goals, based on the probability estimates in the rule base. PRIME is composed of three main processes: exploration, generalization, and planning. In exploration, the machine executes various randomly chosen actions, observes the effects on the environment, and updates the rule base accordingly. This process is used to develop the rule base in simulation, as well as to supplement the current knowledge during normal operation. Generalization is the procedure used to induce general rules from experience, which is encoded in the form of specific rules. These general rules extend the machine's knowledge to situations which have not been encountered yet, thereby increasing the capability of the machine to plan effectively. Planning is the process of constructing an optimal sequence of actions to satisfy a goal, using the rule base to predict the effects of these actions and to determine the probability of success of the plan. The rule representation and many other data structures were specifically chosen to maximize the efficiency of these processes. A simulated environment was designed to test the performance of PRIME. The results of experimentation were largely negative. The main problem was that the domain coverage of the rules was inadequate for the number of rules stored in the rule base, due to redundancies in general rules and numerous rules covering ineffective actions. It was determined that a more efficient generalization, and some form of goal-directed exploration, are necessary in order to solve most of the current deficiencies in PRIME.

Miller, Scott A.↗
NASA NTRS1994

Maximum predictive power and the superposition principle

In quantum physics the direct observables are probabilities of events. We ask how observed probabilities must be combined to achieve what we call maximum predictive power. According to this concept the accuracy of a prediction must only depend on the number of runs whose data serve as input for the prediction. We transform each probability to an associated variable whose uncertainty interval depends only on the amount of data and strictly decreases with it. We find that for a probability which is a function of two other probabilities maximum predictive power is achieved when linearly summing their associated variables and transforming back to a probability. This recovers the quantum mechanical superposition principle.

Summhammer, Johann↗