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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

Risk-Aware Framework Development for Disruption Prediction: Alcator C-Mod and DIII-D Survival Analysis

Abstract Survival regression models can achieve longer warning times at similar receiver operating characteristic performance than previously investigated models. Survival regression models are also shown to predict the time until a disruption will occur with lower error than other predictors. Time-to-event predictions from time-series data can be obtained with a survival analysis statistical framework, and there have been many tools developed for this task which we aim to apply to disruption prediction. Using the open-source Auton-Survival package we have implemented disruption predictors with the survival regression models Cox Proportional Hazards, Deep Cox Proportional Hazards, and Deep Survival Machines. To compare with previous work, we also include predictors using a Random Forest binary classifier, and a conditional Kaplan-Meier formalism. We benchmarked the performance of these five predictors using experimental data from the Alcator C-Mod and DIII-D tokamaks by simulating alarms on each individual shot. We find that developing machine-relevant metrics to evaluate models is an important area for future work. While this study finds cases where disruptive conditions are not predicted, there are instances where the desired outcome is produced. Giving the plasma control system the expected time-to-disruption will allow it to determine the optimal actuator response in real time to minimize risk of damage to the device.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2023

A deep learning model for automatic analysis of cavities in irradiated materials

Transmission electron microscopy (TEM) is a commonly used technique in materials science for defect investigation. Quantitative analysis of defects is important for understanding the properties of a material, but manual analysis of TEM micrographs can be time-consuming and prone to error, especially when the defects have irregular shapes rather than spherical shapes. Many existing methods or deep learning models do not handle a wide range of sizes for the same object type within a single image. In this work, we present a framework that enables users to train an instance segmentation model called Mask R- CNN on any microstructure dataset, perform multi-detection on the same image at different scales, and obtain properties (e.g., size, area) of the objects based on the desired shape (e.g., circle, ellipse, rectangle). Additionally, we have developed a parallel detection module that uses multiple GPUs to increase the efficiency of the object detection process. We demonstrate the capabilities of our framework using a set of TEM images of cavities with different shapes, size distributions, and background contrasts. Finally, we show that the performance of our model in terms of density, size, and swelling of the cavities is comparable to the human average and that our model achieves the highest recall value compared to existing methods due to the use of image multi-rescaling.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2022

Anomalous structural recovery in the near glass transition range in a polymer glass: Data revisited in light of temperature variability in vacuum oven‐based experiments*

Abstract There is considerable interest in data reported by Cangialosi et al. [Cangialosi, D., Boucher, V. M., Alegría, A., & Colmenero, J. (2013). Physical Review Letters , 111 (9), 095701] that purportedly showed unusual irregular responses in the isothermal structural recovery behavior of glasses because the observation challenges the general view of the dynamics being smooth functions of time as observed in extensive dilatometric experiments by Kovacs [Kovacs, A. J. (1964). In Fortschritte der Hochpolymeren‐Forschung , 3 , 394–507. Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg.] in the 1960s. The reported data show an apparent two mechanism structural (enthalpy) recovery at aging temperatures ranging from 6 to 17 K below which is also controversial as it could not be reproduced in work from Koh and Simon [Koh, Y. P., & Simon, S. L. (2013). Macromolecules , 46(14), 5815–5821.] where a second plateau observed in the enthalpy loss curve was not reproduced in nearly 1‐year‐long experiments at 15 K below . Therefore, it is important to determine what might be possible reasons for the apparent non‐smooth relaxations. Here, we examine the possibility that the poor temperature control of a typical vacuum oven could explain the anomalous results. We used the Tool–Narayanaswamy–Moynihan (TNM) model of structural recovery to calculate the effect of typical vacuum oven temperature variation on the structural recovery of polystyrene and find that we can reproduce the reported experimental results. The issue of temperature control using a vacuum oven is discussed, and data from thermocouple measurements of temperature at various locations inside a vacuum oven are shown.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2022

Development and assessment of prognosis digital twin in a NAMAC system

The nearly autonomous management and control (NAMAC) system is a comprehensive control system to assist plant operations by furnishing control recommendations to operators. Prognosis digital twin (DT-P) is a critical component in NAMAC for predicting action effects and supporting NAMAC decision-making during normal and accident scenarios. To quantifying and reducing uncertainty of machine-learning-based DT-Ps in multi-step predictions, this work investigates and derives insights from the application of three techniques for optimizing the performance of DT-P by long short-term memory recurrent neural networks, including manual search, sequential model-based optimization, and physics-guided machine learning. Finally, sequential model-based optimization and physics-guide machine learning result in smallest errors when the predicting transients are similar to the training data.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2022

J-PLUS: Support vector regression to measure stellar parameters

Stellar parameters are among the most important characteristics in studies of stars which, in traditional methods, are based on atmosphere models. However, time, cost, and brightness limits restrain the efficiency of spectral observations. The Javalambre Photometric Local Universe Survey (J-PLUS) is an observational campaign that aims to obtain photometry in 12 bands. Owing to its characteristics, J-PLUS data have become a valuable resource for studies of stars. Machine learning provides powerful tools for efficiently analyzing large data sets, such as the one from J-PLUS, and enables us to expand the research domain to stellar parameters. The main goal of this study is to construct a support vector regression (SVR) algorithm to estimate stellar parameters of the stars in the first data release of the J-PLUS observational campaign. The training data for the parameter's regressions are featured with 12-waveband photometry from J-PLUS and are crossidentified with spectrum-based catalogs. These catalogs are from the Large Sky Area Multi-Object Fiber Spectroscopic Telescope, the Apache Point Observatory Galactic Evolution Experiment, and the Sloan Extension for Galactic Understanding and Exploration. We then label them with the stellar effective temperature, the surface gravity, and the metallicity. Ten percent of the sample is held out to apply a blind test. We develop a new method, a multi-model approach, in order to fully take into account, the uncertainties of both the magnitudes and the stellar parameters. The method utilizes more than 200 models to apply the uncertainty analysis. We present a catalog of 2 493 424 stars with the root mean square error of 160 K in the effective temperature regression, 0.35 in the surface gravity regression, and 0.25 in the metallicity regression. We also discuss the advantages of this multi-model approach and compare it to other machine-learning methods.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2026

Emulating galaxy and peculiar velocity clustering on non-linear scales

We explore the potential of cross-correlating galaxies and peculiar velocities on non-linear scales to enhance cosmological constraints. Leveraging the ABACUSSUMMIT simulation suite and the halo occupation distribution (HOD) formalism, we trained emulator models to describe the non-linear clustering of galaxies and velocities in redshift space. Our analysis demonstrates that combining galaxy and peculiar velocity clustering provides tighter constraints on both HOD and cosmological parameters, particularly on σ8 and w0. We further applied our models to realistic mock catalogues, reproducing the expected density and peculiar velocity errors of type-Ia supernovae, Tully-Fisher and fundamental plane measurements for the combined ZTF and DESI measurements. While systematic biases arise in the HOD parameters, the cosmological constraints remain unbiased, yielding a 3.8% precision measurement on fσ 8 compared to 4.7% when using galaxy clustering alone. We demonstrate that while combining tracers with realistic velocity measurements still yields an improvement, the gains are diminished, highlighting the need for further efforts to reduce velocity measurement uncertainties and correct observational systematics on small scales.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Capturing non-Gaussianity of the large-scale structure with weighted skew-spectra

The forthcoming generation of wide-field galaxy surveys will probe larger volumes and galaxy densities, thus allowing for a much larger signal-to-noise ratio for higher-order clustering statistics, in particular the galaxy bispectrum. Extracting this information, however, is more challenging than using the power spectrum due to more complex theoretical modeling, as well as significant computational cost of evaluating the bispectrum signal and the error budget. To overcome these challenges, several proxy statistics have been proposed in the literature, which partially or fully capture the information in the bispectrum, while being computationally less expensive than the bispectrum. One such statistics are weighted skew-spectra, which are cross-spectra of the density field and appropriately weighted quadratic fields. Using Fisher forecasts, we show that the information in these skew-spectra is equivalent to that in the bispectrum for parameters that appear as amplitudes in the bispectrum model, such as galaxy bias parameters or the amplitude of primordial non-Gaussianity. We consider three shapes of the primordial bispectrum: local, equilateral and that due to massive particles with spin two during inflation. In conclusion, to obtain constraints that match those from a measurement of the full bispectrum, we find that it is crucial to account for the full covariance matrix of the skew-spectra.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Selecting durable building envelope systems with machine learning assisted hygrothermal simulations database

Hygrothermal simulations provide insight into the energy performance and moisture durability of building envelope components under dynamic conditions. The inputs required for hygrothermal simulations are extensive, and carrying out simulations and analyses requires expert knowledge. An expert system, the Building Science Advisor (BSA), has been developed to predict the performance and select the energy-efficient and durable building envelope systems for different climates. The BSA consists of decision rules based on expert opinions and thousands of parametric simulation results for selected wall systems. The number of potential wall systems results in millions, too many to simulate all of them. We present how machine learning can help predict durability data, such as mold growth, while minimizing the number of simulations needed to run. The simulation results are used for training and validation of machine learning tools for predicting wall durability. We tested Artificial Neural Network (ANN) and Gradient Boosted Decision Trees (GBDT) for their applicability and model accuracy. Models developed with both methods showed adequate prediction performance (root mean square error of 0.195 and 0.209, respectively). Finally, we introduce how the information supports guidance for envelope design via an easy-to-use web-based tool that does not require the end-user to run hygrothermal simulations.

Salonvaara, Mikael↗
DOE OSTI2026

Wasserstein normalized autoencoder for anomaly detection

A novel anomaly detection algorithm is presented. The Wasserstein normalized autoencoder (WNAE) is a normalized probabilistic model that minimizes the Wasserstein distance between the learned probability distribution—a Boltzmann distribution where the energy is the reconstruction error of the autoencoder (AE)—and the distribution of the training data. This algorithm has been developed and applied to the identification of semivisible jets—conical sprays of visible standard model (SM) particles and invisible dark matter states—with the CMS experiment at the CERN LHC. Trained on jets of particles from simulated SM processes, the WNAE is shown to learn the probability distribution of the input data in a fully unsupervised fashion, such that it effectively identifies new physics jets as anomalies. The model exhibits stable, convergent training and recovers strong classification performance for a wide range of signals against the selected background process, for which a standard AE fails because of outlier reconstruction. In addition, the model improves upon standard normalized autoencoders while remaining fully agnostic to the signal. The WNAE directly tackles the problem of outlier reconstruction, a common failure mode of autoencoders in anomaly detection tasks.

Hayrapetyan, Aram [Yerevan Phys. Inst.]↗
DOE OSTI2026

Analytic Chromaticity Formulas for the Muon g -2 experiment at fermilab

The Muon g-2 Experiment (E989) at Fermilab measured the muon anomalous magnetic moment aμ with unprecedented precision of 127 ppb using a storage ring. The experiment pushed the limits in terms of accuracy and systematic errors. Achieving the 78-ppb total systematic uncertainty required precise beam dynamics modeling and corrections for effects on the measured muon precession frequency. Here, we derived the first analytic aberration formulas up to the second order for the muon g-2 storage ring’s combined-function electrostatic quadrupoles (superimposed magnetic dipole and electric quadrupole fields) using an order-by-order perturbation method. From these, we obtained the exact chromaticity formulas for three ring models of different granularity and validated them against numerical calculations using COSY INFINITY, achieving analytic-numerical agreement to ⁠$\mathscr{O}(10^{-10})$. This work resolved discrepancies between previous approximate derivations and provided essential beam dynamics results for Runs 4-6 analyses. We also calculated nonlinear chromaticities up to ninth order. The experiment completed its final Run 6 in July 2023, collecting 21 times more data than the previous muon g-2 experiment at Brookhaven National Laboratory, with the final result announced in June 2025.

aberrations↗
DOE OSTI2020

A measurement of the Hubble constant from Type II supernovae

ABSTRACT Progressive increases in the precision of the Hubble-constant measurement via Cepheid-calibrated Type Ia supernovae (SNe Ia) have shown a discrepancy of ∼4.4σ with the current value inferred from Planck satellite measurements of the cosmic microwave background radiation and the standard $\Lambda $cold dark matter (ΛCDM) cosmological model. This disagreement does not appear to be due to known systematic errors and may therefore be hinting at new fundamental physics. Although all of the current techniques have their own merits, further improvement in constraining the Hubble constant requires the development of as many independent methods as possible. In this work, we use SNe II as standardisable candles to obtain an independent measurement of the Hubble constant. Using seven SNe II with host-galaxy distances measured from Cepheid variables or the tip of the red giant branch, we derive H$_0= 75.8^{+5.2}_{-4.9}$ km s−1 Mpc−1 (statistical errors only). Our value favours that obtained from the conventional distance ladder (Cepheids + SNe Ia) and exhibits a difference of 8.4 km s−1 Mpc−1 from the Planck + ΛCDM value. Adding an estimate of the systematic errors (2.8 km s−1 Mpc−1) changes the ∼1.7σ discrepancy with Planck +ΛCDM to ∼1.4σ. Including the systematic errors and performing a bootstrap simulation, we confirm that the local H0 value exceeds the value from the early Universe with a confidence level of 95 per cent. As in this work, we only exchange SNe II for SNe Ia to measure extragalactic distances, we demonstrate that there is no evidence that SNe Ia are the source of the H0 tension.

de Jaeger, T.↗
DOE OSTI2026

Direct estimation of the density of states for fermionic systems

Simulating time evolution is one of the most natural applications of quantum computers and is thus one of the most promising prospects for achieving practical quantum advantage. Here, we develop quantum algorithms to extract thermodynamic properties by estimating the density of states (DOS), which is a central object in quantum statistical mechanics. We introduce several key innovations that significantly improve the practicality and extend the generality of previous techniques. First, our approach allows one to estimate the DOS only for a specific subspace of the full Hilbert space. This is crucial for fermionic systems, since both canonical and grand canonical ensemble thermal equilibrium properties depend on subspaces of fixed number. Second, in our approach, by time evolving very simple, random initial states, such as randomly chosen computational basis states, we can exactly recover the DOS on average. Third, due to circuit-depth limitations, we only reconstruct the DOS up to a convolution with a Gaussian window—thus all imperfections that shift the energy levels by less than the width of the convolution window will not significantly affect the estimated DOS. For these reasons, we find the approach is a promising candidate for early quantum advantage as even short-time, noisy dynamics can yield a semiquantitative reconstruction of the DOS (convolution with a broad Gaussian window), while early fault-tolerant devices will likely enable higher-resolution DOS reconstruction through longer time evolutions. We demonstrate the practicality of our approach in representative Fermi-Hubbard and spin models and indeed find that our approach is highly robust against algorithmic errors in the time evolution and against gate noise. We further demonstrate that our approach is compatible with noisy intermediate-scale quantum (NISQ) computing NISQ-friendly variational techniques, introducing and leveraging a technique for variational time evolution.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2022

Nuclear two point correlation functions on a quantum computer

The calculation of dynamic response functions is expected to be an early application benefiting from rapidly developing quantum hardware resources. The ability to calculate real-time quantities of strongly correlated quantum systems is one of the most exciting applications that can easily reach beyond the capabilities of traditional classical hardware. Response functions of fermionic systems at moderate momenta and energies corresponding roughly to the Fermi energy of the system are a potential early application because the relevant operators are nearly local, and the energies can be resolved in moderately short real time, reducing the spatial resolution and gate depth required. This is particularly the case in quasielastic electron and neutrino scattering from nuclei, a topic of great interest in the nuclear and particle physics communities and directly related to experiments designed to probe neutrino properties. In this paper we use current quantum hardware and error mitigation protocols to calculate response functions for a highly simplified nuclear model through calculations of a 2-point real time correlation function for a modified Fermi-Hubbard model in two dimensions with three distinguishable nucleons on four lattice sites.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Avian Activity Classification Using Recurrent Networks to Fuse Videos with Metadata on Imbalanced Datasets

Activity classification plays a crucial role in various real-life scenarios involving both humans and animals. There is an increasing need for precise activity classification focused on avian-solar interactions, as the usage of solar energy facilities, such as photovoltaic array power stations, has been observed to impact bird species richness, behavior, and activity. However, there has been no work to develop an automated system to monitor and classify these avian-solar interactions. All current methods rely on human observers, which is time and human resources costly and subject to errors related to searcher efficiency. With the recent success of Deep Learning models in activity classification problems, this paper develops a recurrent neural network-based model to automatically classify six avian activities around solar energy facilities. Our proposed model integrates critical feature engineering metadata with video frame data, enabling improved learning and more accurate activity classification. Furthermore, we address the challenge of data imbalance during training and demonstrate the efficacy of our model in detecting and classifying different activities within video tracks. Additionally, we analyze the saliency/backpropagation map of the trained proposed model and validate its decision-making rationale.

Avian activity classification; bidirectional LSTM;↗
DOE OSTI2026

bibcheck

SAND2026-16981O Bibcheck is designed to extract bibliographies from research papers and perform metadata searches to identify errors. It assists authors in checking their bibliographies for metadata errors during the writing process and helps reviewers identify errors in bibliographies of papers under review. The software uses large language models (LLMs) to extract bibliography entries from PDF documents, classifies the type of bibliography entry, and verifies referenced works. Sandia National Laboratories is a multimission laboratory managed and operated by National Technology & Engineering Solutions of Sandia, LLC, a wholly owned subsidiary of Honeywell International Inc., for the U.S. Department of Energy’s National Nuclear Security Administration under contract DE-NA0003525.

Pearson, Carl [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-CA), Live↗
DOE OSTI2022

Observing Profiles of Derived Kinematic Field Quantities Using a Network of Profiling Sites

Abstract Observations of thermodynamic and kinematic parameters associated with derivatives of the thermodynamics and wind fields, namely, advection, vorticity, divergence, and deformation, can be obtained by applying Green’s theorem to a network of observing sites. The five nodes that comprise the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Southern Great Plains (SGP) profiling network, spaced 50–80 km apart, are used to obtain measurements of these parameters over a finite region. To demonstrate the applicability of this technique at this location, it is first applied to gridded model output from the High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) numerical weather prediction model, using profiles from the locations of ARM network sites, so that values calculated from this method can be directly compared to finite difference calculations. Good agreement is found between both approaches as well as between the model and values calculated from the observations. Uncertainties for the observations are obtained via a Monte Carlo process in which the profiles are randomly perturbed in accordance with their known error characteristics. The existing size of the ARM network is well suited to capturing these parameters, with strong correlations to model values and smaller uncertainties than a more closely spaced network, yet it is small enough that it avoids the tendency for advection to go to zero over a large area.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Uncertainty Quantification in Scientific ML

The intricate interactions between data sampling, model selection and the inherent randomness in complex systems strongly emphasize the need for a rigorous characterization of ML algorithms. In conventional statistics, uncertainty quantification (UQ) provides this characterization by measuring how accurately a model reflects the physical reality and by studying the impact of different error sources on the prediction.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2021

Modeling Noise: Paths toward AI-Enabled Stochastic Earth System Models and Parameterizations

Some of the key challenges in Earth system prediction arise from an uncertain representation of unpredictable natural variability, across time and space scales. This variability, hereafter referred to as noise, represents the quantity against which the strength of a signal of interest is measured to assess predictability. Underestimating or overestimating this noise in Earth system models can lead to issues ranging between overconfidence in an erroneous prediction and a lack thereof in an otherwise accurate one. Noise is part of the physical processes in the Earth system and can amplify or damp a signal of interest in a complex manner that is not systematically characterized. Specifically, while there has been significant progress in our understanding of multiscale interactions among known modes of variability (potentially predictable signals), how these are impacted by the noise is not clear. Recent effort toward stochastic parametrization schemes that provide a representation of noise due to uncertain sub-grid processes in climate models (Berner et al., 2017 and references therein) has shown promise not only in reducing biases and improving probabilistic prediction but also in improving the representation of natural variability in the model toward what is observed. However, today’s standard schemes for stochastic parametrization are still simplistic as they do not take the state of the atmosphere into account (other than by the use of multiplicative noise for model tendencies). Furthermore they require hand-tuning and trial-and-error testing for the magnitude of the added noise, which is difficult in a chaotic system that is as complex as the Earth system.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗