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At least 1,675 records · Page 93

Modelling CLPX IOP3 Radiometric Data by Means of the Dense Media Theory: Preliminary Results for the LSOS Test Site

The capabilities of the Dense Media Radiative Transfer model using the Quasi Crystalline Approximation with Coherent Potential (QCA-CP) to reproduce measured radiometric data were tested using the University of Tokyo Ground Based Microwave Radiometer (GBMR-7) during the third Intensive Observation Period (IOP3) of the NASA Cold-land Processes Field Experiment (CLPX). The data were collected at the Local-Scale Observation Site (LSOS), a 0.8-ha study site consisting of two open meadows separated by trees. Intensive measurements were also made of snow depth and temperature, density, and grain size profiles. A DMRT model is needed to describe radiative transfer in a medium such as snow because the assumption of independent scattering used in classical radiative transfer theory (CRT) is not valid. Validation of the DMRT approach requires a relationship between measured snow grain size and the DMRT approximation of snow grain radius as spherical particles with a mean radius of the log-normal particle-size distribution. This relationship is very important for a better understanding of snow modelling and for practical applications. DMRT simulations were compared with observations of microwave brightnesses at 18.7, 36.5 and 89-GHz (V and H polarizations) collected on February-1 9-25, 2003. Observation angles ranged from 30\deg to 70\deg. Model inputs included measured snow parameters except mean grain size. The average snow temperature, fractional volume and depth were held constant, together with the ice and soil permittivities. The minimum and maximum measured mean grain sizes were used to test the capabilities of the DMRT to reproduce the brightnesses as upper and lower limits. The sensitivity to the largest and smallest measured grain size in the three classes of minimum, medium and maximum observed grain sizes was also investigated. DMRT particle sizes yielding a best-fit to the experimental data for each date were computed. Results show that the measured brightnesses fall within the range of simulated brightnesses using the smallest and largest measured grain size values. The DMRT best-fit radii are comparable to the average radii for the medium observed grain sizes.

Tedesco, Marco↗

Description of the LASSO Data Bundles Product

The U. S. Department of Energy (DOE) Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) user facility began a pilot project in May 2015 to design a routine, high-resolution modeling capability to complement ARM’s extensive suite of measurements. This modeling capability has evolved into the Large-Eddy Simulation (LES) ARM Symbiotic Simulation and Observation (LASSO) datastream. The datastream, broadly termed data bundles, contains high-resolution model output, input files, observations for evaluation, and skill scores for the simulations. The initial focus of LASSO is on shallow convection at the ARM Southern Great Plains (SGP) atmospheric observatory. The availability of LES simulations with concurrent observations serves many purposes. LES helps bridge the scale gap between DOE ARM observations and models, and the use of routine LES adds value to observations. It provides a self-consistent representation of the atmosphere and a dynamical context for the observations. Further, it elucidates unobservable processes and properties. LASSO generates a simulation library for researchers that enables statistical approaches beyond a single-case mentality. It also provides tools necessary for modelers to reproduce the LES and conduct their own sensitivity experiments. The LASSO library of data bundles is designed to facilitate a wide range of research. For an observationalist, LASSO can help inform instrument remote-sensing retrievals, conduct observation system simulation experiments (OSSEs), and test implications of radar scan strategies or flight paths. For a theoretician, LASSO can help calculate estimates of fluxes and co-variability of values, and test relationships without having to run the model personally. For a modeler, LASSO can help one know ahead of time which days have good forcing, have co-registered observations at high-resolution scales, and have simulation inputs and corresponding outputs to test parameterizations. Further details on the overall LASSO project are available at https://www.arm.gov/capabilities/modeling/lasso.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Nested polynomial trends for the improvement of Gaussian process-based predictors

The role of simulation keeps increasing for the sensitivity analysis and the uncertainty quantification of complex systems. Such numerical procedures are generally based on the processing of a huge amount of code evaluations. When the computational cost associated with one particular evaluation of the code is high, such direct approaches based on the computer code only, are not affordable. Surrogate models have therefore to be introduced to interpolate the information given by a fixed set of code evaluations to the whole input space. When confronted to deterministic mappings, the Gaussian process regression (GPR), or kriging, presents a good compromise between complexity, efficiency and error control. Such a method considers the quantity of interest of the system as a particular realization of a Gaussian stochastic process, whose mean and covariance functions have to be identified from the available code evaluations. In this context, this work proposes an innovative parametrization of this mean function, which is based on the composition of two polynomials. This approach is particularly relevant for the approximation of strongly non linear quantities of interest from very little information. After presenting the theoretical basis of this method, this work compares its efficiency to alternative approaches on a series of examples.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Extending the operation range of a phase-sensitive optical time-domain reflectometer by using fibre with chirped Bragg gratings

>A record long external-disturbance detection distance of 140 km without employing optical amplifiers in the fibre line is demonstrated by a phase-sensitive optical time-domain reflectometer (Φ-OTDR) using a fibre section with inscribed chirped fibre Bragg gratings (CFBGs). This solution provides simultaneous operation of Φ-OTDR with a standard single-mode fibre at a distance of up to 100 km and with a CFBG fibre section located from the fibre line input point by at least 140 km. (paper)

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

Optimization of a Cyclone Using Multiphase Flow Computational Fluid Dynamics

The U.S. Department of Energy National Energy Technology Laboratory's (NETL) 50 kW th chemical looping reactor (CLR) has an underperforming cyclone, which was designed using empirical correlations. To improve the performance of this cyclone using computational fluid dynamics (CFD)-based modeling simulations, four critical design parameters including the vortex tube radius and length, barrel radius, and the inlet width and height were optimized. Here, NETL's open source multiphase flow with interphase exchange (MFiX) CFD code has been used to model a series of cyclones by systematically varying the geometric design parameters. To perform the optimization process, the surrogate modeling and sensitivity analysis followed by the optimization capability in nodeworks was used. The basic methodology for the process is to employ a statistical design of experiments (DOE) method to generate sampling simulations that fill the design space. Corresponding CFD models are then created, executed, and postprocessed. A response surface is created to characterize the relationship between input parameters and the quantities of interest (QoI). Finally, the CFD-surrogate is used by an optimization method to find the optimal design condition based on the objective and constraints prescribed. The resulting optimal cyclone has a larger diameter and longer vortex tube, a larger diameter barrel, and a taller and narrower solids inlet. The improved design has a predicted pressure drop 11 times lower than the original design while reducing the mass loss by a factor of 2.3.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Parametric dependence of ion temperature and electron density in the SUMMA hot-ion plasma using laser light scattering and emission spectroscopy

Hot-ion plasma experiments were conducted in the NASA Lewis SUMMA facility. A steady-state modified Penning discharge was formed by applying a radially inward dc electric field of several kilovolts near the magnetic mirror maxima. Results are reported for a hydrogen plasma covering a wide range in midplane magnetic flux densities from 0.5 to 3.37 T. Input power greater than 45 kW was obtained with water-cooled cathodes. Steady-state plasmas with ion kinetic temperatures from 18 to 830 eV were produced and measured spectroscopically. These ion temperatures were correlated with current, voltage, and magnetic flux density as the independent variables. Electron density measurements were made using an unusually sensitive Thomson scattering apparatus. The measured electron densities range from 2.1 x 10 to the 11th to 6.8 x 10 to the 12th per cu cm.

Snyder, A.↗

Solar energy system economic evaluation: IBM System 4, Clinton, Mississippi

An economic analysis of the solar energy system was developed for five sites, typical of a wide range of environmental and economic conditions in the continental United States. The analysis was based on the technical and economic models in the F-chart design procedure, with inputs based on the characteristic of the installed system and local conditions. The results are of the economic parameters of present worth of system cost over a 20 year time span: life cycle savings, year of positive savings and year of payback for the optimized solar energy system at each of the analysis sites. The sensitivity of the economic evaluation to uncertainties in constituent system and economic variables is also investigated.

Source record↗

Surrogate measures: A proposed alternative in human factors assessment of operational measures of performance

Surrogate measures are proposed as an alternative to direct assessment of operational performance for purposes of screening agents who may have to work under unusual stresses or in exotic environments. Such measures are particularly proposed when the surrogate can be empirically validated against the operational criterion. The focus is on cognitive (or throughput) performances in humans as opposed to sensory (input) or motor (output) measures, but the methods should be applicable for development of batteries which will tap input/output functions. A menu of performance tasks is under development for implementation on a battery-operated portable microcomputer, with 21 tests currently available. The tasks are reliable and become stable in minimum amounts of time; appear sensitive to some agents; comprise constructs related to actual job tasks; and are easily administered in most environments. Implications for human factors engineering studies in environmental stress are discussed.

Kennedy, Robert S.↗

Modeled Impact of Cirrus Cloud Increases Along Aircraft Flight Paths

The potential impact of contrails and alterations in the lifetime of background cirrus due to subsonic airplane water and aerosol emissions has been investigated in a set of experiments using the GISS GCM connected to a q-flux ocean. Cirrus clouds at a height of 12-15km, with an optical thickness of 0.33, were input to the model "x" percentage of clear-sky occasions along subsonic aircraft flight paths, where x is varied from .05% to 6%. Two types of experiments were performed: one with the percentage cirrus cloud increase independent of flight density, as long as a certain minimum density was exceeded; the other with the percentage related to the density of fuel expenditure. The overall climate impact was similar with the two approaches, due to the feedbacks of the climate system. Fifty years were run for eight such experiments, with the following conclusions based on the stable results from years 30-50 for each. The experiments show that adding cirrus to the upper troposphere results in a stabilization of the atmosphere, which leads to some decrease in cloud cover at levels below the insertion altitude. Considering then the total effect on upper level cloud cover (above 5 km altitude), the equilibrium global mean temperature response shows that altering high level clouds by 1% changes the global mean temperature by 0.43C. The response is highly linear (linear correlation coefficient of 0.996) for high cloud cover changes between 0. 1% and 5%. The effect is amplified in the Northern Hemisphere, more so with greater cloud cover change. The temperature effect maximizes around 10 km (at greater than 40C warming with a 4.8% increase in upper level clouds), again more so with greater warming. The high cloud cover change shows the flight path influence most clearly with the smallest warming magnitudes; with greater warming, the model feedbacks introduce a strong tropical response. Similarly, the surface temperature response is dominated by the feedbacks, and shows little geographical relationship to the high cloud input. Considering whether these effects would be observable, changing upper level cloud cover by as little as 0.4% produces warming greater than 2 standard deviations in the Microwave Sounding Unit (MSU) channels 4, 2 and 2r, in flight path regions and in the subtropics. Despite the simplified nature of these experiments, the results emphasize the sensitivity of the modeled climate to high level cloud cover changes, and thus the potential ability of aircraft to influence climate by altering clouds in the upper troposphere.

Rind, David↗

Fatigue Crack Measurement in Composite Materials by Ultrasonic Methods

The nondestructive detection of intra-ply microcracking in unlined pressure vessels fabricated from composite materials is critical to ensuring mission success. Microcracking in composite structures due to combined fatigue and cryogenic thermal loading can be very troublesome to detect in-service and when it begins to link through the thickness can cause leakage and failure of the structure. These leaks may lead to loss of pressure/propellant, increased risk of explosion and possible cryo-pumping. The work presented herein develops a method and an instrument to locate and measure intraply fatigue cracking through the thickness of laminated composite material by means of correlation with ultrasonic resonance. Resonant ultrasound spectroscopy provides measurements which are, sensitive to both the microscopic and macroscopic properties of an object. Elastic moduli, acoustic attenuation, and geometry can all be probed. The approach is based on the premise of half-wavelength resonance. The method injects a broadband ultrasonic wave into the test structure using a swept frequency technique. This method provides dramatically increased energy input into the test article, as compared to conventional spike pulsed ultrasonics. This relative energy increase improves the ability to measure finer details in the materials character, such as micro-cracking and porosity. As the micro-crack density increases, more interactions occur with the higher frequency (small wavelength) components of the signal train causing the spectrum to shift toward lower frequencies. Preliminary experiments have verified a measurable effect on the resonance spectrum of the ultrasonic data to detect microcracking. Methods involving self organizing neural networks and other clustering algorithms show that the resonance ultrasound signatures from composites vary with the degree of microcracking and can be separated and identified.

Walker, James L.↗

(abstract) Monitoring Seasonal State and Mapping Species in Alaskan Taiga Using Imaging Radar as Input to CO(sub 2) Flux Models

Changes in the seasonal CO(sub 2) flux of the boreal forests may result from increased atmospheric CO(sub 2) concentrations and associated atmospheric warming. To monitor this potential change, a combination of remote sensing information and ecophysiological models are required. In this paper we address the use of synthetic aperture radar (SAR) data to provide some of the input to the ecophysiological models: forest type, freeze/thaw state which limits the growing season for conifers, and leaf on/off state which limits the growing season for deciduous species. AIRSAR data collected in March 1988 during an early thaw event and May 1991 during spring breakup are used to generate species maps and to determine the sensitivity of SAR to canopy freeze/thaw transitions. These data are also used to validate a microwave scattering model which is then used to determine the sensitivity of SAR to leaf on/off and soil freeze/thaw transitions. Finally, a CO(sub 2) flux algorithm which utilizes SAR data and an ecophysiological model to estimate CO(sub 2) flux is presented. CO(sub 2) flux maps are generated from which areal estimates of CO(sub 2) flux are derived.

leaf cover boreal forests radar backscatter↗

Simulation of a Future SLR Satellite to Improve Low-Degree Gravity Estimates

The Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE; 2002-2017) and GRACE Follow-On (2018-present) have observed Earth's monthly mass change with unprecedented spatial resolution. These missions have long relied on satellite laser ranging (SLR) measurements to replace the C 2,0 coefficient, which GRACE recovers poorly. Recent work has also shown the need for SLR-determined C 3,0 when GRACE operates with a single accelerometer. However, it was not until the 2012 launch of the Laser Relativity Satellite that the SLR data gained the sensitivity to recover C 3,0 accurately. These low-degree gravity coefficients represent large-scale mass transport and small changes in their values have implications for ice sheet, ocean mass, and water storage estimates. To fully exploit SLR's utility for time-variable gravity (TVG), future satellite orbits should be selected to maximize their sensitivity to the gravity field. In this work, we present results from a simulation study of a hypothetical SLR satellite in which we generate 1 year of data to satellites placed across varying inclinations. We also simulate seven current SLR satellites to show realistic improvements from the new satellite. When compared to the known truth input, a low-inclination satellite ( <~ 45°) most improves the low-degree gravity terms, especially the even zonals which show a significant decorrelation. From this, we investigate recovery of the annual variability in the simulated signal and find recovery of the sine component improves by up to 41%. This has important implications when considering future SLR satellites in the context of TVG.

Satellite laser ranging↗

AutoSIM

AutoSIM enables several instances of an executable to run in parallel on a directory of input files and consolidate results, at scale on the world's fastest supercomputers. The software accomplishes this by balancing compression, transmission, and computation of input files, executables, and output files to allow scalable parallel runs of any executable. The software breaks-up simulations into a configurable number of "churns" or sequential instances of executable invocations on a configurable number of cores/node. It sends the executable, supporting files, and appropriate number of input files to each node for independent execution, and then transfers the executable results to a shared disk for post-processing analysis. This MPI-based code has been demonstrated using EnergyPlus, DOE's flagship whole-building simulation engine, but was architected to allow scalable runtime of any software for any application (e.g. sensitivity analysis and uncertainty quantification). The code has also been demonstrated to scale on the Titan supercomputer using 131,072 processors to run 524,288 EnergyPlus annual simulations, and write 45TB of data to disk in 68 mins 08 secs.

New, Joshua R↗

Elevated aerosol layers modify the O2–O2 absorption measured by ground-based MAX-DOAS

The oxygen collisional complex (O2-O2, or O4) is a greenhouse gas, and a calibration trace gas used to infer aerosol and cloud properties by Differential Optical Absorption Spectroscopy (DOAS). Recent reports suggest the need for an O4 correction factor (CFO4) when comparing simulated and measured O4 differential slant column densities (dSCD) by passive DOAS. We investigate the sensitivity of O4 dSCD simulations at ultraviolet (360 nm) and visible (477 nm) wavelengths towards separately measured aerosol extinction profiles. Measurements were conducted by the University of Colorado 2D-MAX-DOAS instrument and NASA’s multispectral High Spectral Resolution Lidar (HSRL-2) during the Two Column Aerosol Project (TCAP) at Cape Cod, MA in July 2012. During two case study days with (1) high aerosol load (17 July, AOD ~ 0.35 at 477 nm), and (2) near molecular scattering conditions (22 July, AOD < 0.10 at 477 nm) the measured and calculated O4 dSCDs agreed within 6.4±0.4% (360 nm) and 4.7±0.6% (477 nm) if the HSRL-2 profiles were used as input to the calculations. However, if in the calculations the aerosol is confined to the surface layer (while keeping AOD constant) we find 0.53<CFO4<0.75, similar to previously reported CFO4. Our results suggest that elevated aerosol layers, unless accounted for, can cause negative bias in the simulated O4 dSCDs that can explain CFO4. The air density and aerosol profile aloft needs to be taken into account when interpreting the O4 from ground-based MAX-DOAS. Opportunities to identify and better characterize these layers are also discussed.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Evaluation of measuring thermal conductivity of isotropic and anisotropic thermally insulating materials by transient plane source (Hot Disk) technique

The transient plane source (TPS) technique, also referred as the Hot Disk method, has been widely used due to its ability to measure the thermal properties of an extensive range of materials (solids, liquids, and powder). Recently, it has been recognized that typical Hot Disk sensors can influence TPS results of thermally insulating materials and lead to an overestimation of thermal conductivity. Although improvements have been proposed, they have not yet been implemented in the commercial TPS, leaving researchers with non-standardized modifications or options provided by a commercial Hot Disk apparatus. An empirical study of thermally insulating materials such as extruded polystyrene (XPS) and aerogel blanket is conducted in order to address the factors that affect the reliability of thermal conductivity k obtained using the commercial TPS apparatus. Sensor size, input power, duration of the measurements, applied pressure, and, in the case of anisotropic materials, heat capacity are investigated, and the results are compared with those using a Heat Flow Meter apparatus. The effect of sensor size on the k value is ascribed to heat loss through connecting leads and is more pronounced in smaller sensors and in materials with lower k values . In the case of XPS and aerogel, the effect becomes minimal for sensors with a radius r ≥ 6.4 mm. The low input power yields a high scattering of the results and should be avoided. Applied contact pressure and the tested region of the specimen play an important role in experiments with low-density fibrous materials due to the large percentage of heat being transferred by radiation and the heterogeneous nature of the samples, respectively. Additionally, the sensitivity of anisotropic measurements to the value of the material’s volumetric heat capacity ( ρC p ) is shown, emphasizing the need for the precise determination.

thermal conductivity↗

Explaining drivers of housing prices with nonlinear hedonic regressions

Housing markets play a critical role in shaping the spatial and demographic evolution of urban areas. Simulating housing price dynamics can enhance projections of future urban development outcomes. However, traditional hedonic regressions for housing prices, which neglect nonlinear interactions among explanatory variables, often exhibit limited predictive performance. While machine learning (ML) methods can provide a more flexible representation of the relationships between predictors, they are often regarded as “black boxes” due to their complexity and lack of transparency. Interpretable ML techniques provide a promising route by combining the flexibility of ML methods with approaches to analyze the relationships between inputs and outputs. In this study, we employ interpretable ML to analyze the patterns driving the housing market in Baltimore, Maryland, USA. We train an Artificial Neural Network (ANN) to predict Baltimore housing prices based on structural characteristics (e.g., home size, number of stories) and locational attributes (e.g., distance to the city center). We then conduct sensitivity and Partial Dependence Plot (PDP) analyses to interpret the fitted ANN model. We find that the ML model achieves higher predictive accuracy and explains 16 % more of housing price variance than a traditional linear regression model. The interpretable ML model also reveals more nuanced and realistic nonlinear relationships between housing sales price and predictors as well as interactive effects underlying Baltimore home price dynamics. For instance, while the linear model indicates a steady housing price increase over time, our interpretable ML model detects a post-2008 decline, with smaller properties experiencing the sharpest drop.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Comparison of Machine Learning Approaches for Prediction of the Equivalent Alkane Carbon Number for Microemulsions Based on Molecular Properties

The chemical properties of oils are vital in the design of microemulsion systems. The hydrophilic–lipophilic difference equation used to predict microemulsions’ phase behavior expresses the oils’ physiochemical properties as the equivalent alkane carbon number (EACN). The experimental determination of EACN requires knowledge of the temperature dependence of the microemulsion system and the effects of different surfactant concentrations. Thus, the experimental determination is time-intensive and tedious, requiring days to months for proper separations. Furthermore, the experiments require high purity of chemicals because microemulsions are sensitive to impurities. Our work focuses on the quick and reliable predictions of the EACN with machine learning (ML) models. Due to the immaturity of ML chemical predictions, we compare three graph neural networks (GNNs) and a gradient-boosted tree algorithm, known as XGBoost. The GNNs use the molecular structures represented as simplified molecular-input line-entry system (SMILES) codes for the initial input, which allows us to assess whether geometry optimization is necessary for reliable results. The XGBoost model also begins with the SMILES representations of the molecules but uses molecular descriptors instead of geometry optimizations. As a result, the best model tested (crystal graph convolutional neural network with Merck molecular force field-94) has an error of 1.15 EACN units of the true EACN for unknown data with the errors skewed toward zero and an R² score of 0.9

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗