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At least 1,675 records · Page 93

Rapidly Changing Range Limits in a Warming World: Critical Data Limitations and Knowledge Gaps for Advancing Understanding of Mangrove Range Dynamics in the Southeastern USA

Climate change is altering species’ range limits and transforming ecosystems. For example, warming temperatures are leading to the range expansion of tropical, cold-sensitive species at the expense of their cold-tolerant counterparts. In some temperate and subtropical coastal wetlands, warming winters are enabling mangrove forest encroachment into salt marsh, which is a major regime shift that has significant ecological and societal ramifications. Here, we synthesized existing data and expert knowledge to assess the distribution of mangroves near rapidly changing range limits in the southeastern USA. We used expert elicitation to identify data limitations and highlight knowledge gaps for advancing understanding of past, current, and future range dynamics. Mangroves near poleward range limits are often shorter, wider, and more shrublike compared to their tropical counterparts that grow as tall forests in freeze-free, resource-rich environments. The northern range limits of mangroves in the southeastern USA are particularly dynamic and climate sensitive due to abundance of suitable coastal wetland habitat and the exposure of mangroves to winter temperature extremes that are much colder than comparable range limits on other continents. Thus, there is need for methodological refinements and improved spatiotemporal data regarding changes in mangrove structure and abundance near northern range limits in the southeastern USA. Advancing understanding of rapidly changing range limits is critical for foundation plant species such as mangroves, as it provides a basis for anticipating and preparing for the cascading effects of climate-induced species redistribution on ecosystems and the human communities that depend on their ecosystem services.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Future projections of wind patterns in California with the variable-resolution CESM: a clustering analysis approach

Wind energy production is expected to be affected by shifts in wind patterns that will accompany climate change. However, many questions remain on the magnitude and character of this impact, especially on regional scales. In this study, clustering is used to group and analyze large-scale wind patterns in California using model simulations from the variable-resolution Community Earth System Model (VR-CESM). Specifically, simulations have been produced that cover historical (1980–2000), mid-century (2030–2050), and end-of-century (2080–2100) time periods. Once clustered, observed changes to wind patterns can be analyzed in terms of both the change in frequency of those clusters and changes to winds within-clusters. Statistically significant capacity factors changes have been found at all five wind plant sites. Further, decomposition of the capacity factor changes into frequency changes and within-cluster changes enables a better understanding of their drivers. A further examination of the synoptic-scale fields associated with each cluster then provides a better understanding of how changes to large-scale meteorological fields are important for driving changes in localized wind speeds.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Global change and terrestrial plant community dynamics

Significance Global terrestrial vegetation plays a critical role in biogeochemical cycles and provides important ecosystem services. Vegetation has been altered by anthropogenic global change drivers including land-use change, altered disturbance regimes, invasive species, and climate change, for decades to centuries, or in some cases millennia. Vegetation responses to land use and disturbance can be more immediate than to climate change and can be long lasting. The effect of global warming on water balance may have a stronger influence than the direct effects of temperature on vegetation. Models deployed at multiple ecological scales, populations, communities, and landscapes will be required to forecast vegetation responses and feedbacks to accelerated global change.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Metatranscriptomics reveals a shift in microbial community composition and function during summer months in a coastal marine environment

Abstract Temperate coastal marine waters are often thermally stratified from spring through fall but can be dynamic and disrupted by tidal currents and wind‐driven upwelling. These mixing events introduce deeper, cooler water with a higher partial pressure of CO 2 (pCO2) and its associated microbial communities to the surface. Anecdotally, these events impact shellfish hatcheries and farms, warranting improved understanding of changes in composition and activity of marine microbial communities in relation to environmental processes. To characterize both compositional and functional changes associated with abiotic factors, here, we generate a reference metatranscriptome from the Strait of Georgia over representative seasons and analyze metatranscriptomic profiles of the microorganisms present within intake water containing different pCO 2 levels at a shellfish hatchery in British Columbia from June through October. Abiotic factors studied include pH, temperature, alkalinity, aragonite, calcite, and pCO 2 . Community composition changes were observed to occur at broad taxonomic levels and most notably to vary with temperature and pCO 2 . Functional gene expression profiles indicated a strong difference between early (June–July) and late summer (August–October) associated with viral activity. The taxonomic data suggest this could be due to the termination of cyanobacteria and phytoplankton blooms by viral lysis in the late season. Functional analysis indicated fewer differentially expressed transcripts associated with abiotic variables (e.g., pCO 2 ) than with the temporal effect. Microbial composition and activity in these waters vary with both short‐term effects observed alongside abiotic variation and long‐term effects observed across seasons. The analysis of both taxonomy and functional gene expression simultaneously in the same samples by environmental RNA (eRNA metatranscriptomics) provided a more comprehensive view for monitoring water bodies than either would in isolation.

Sutherland, Ben J. G.↗

How issue frames shape beliefs about the importance of climate change policy across ideological and partisan groups

We use an experiment to examine whether the way in which climate change is framed affects individuals’ beliefs about its importance as a policy issue. We employ frames that emphasize national security, human rights, and environmental importance about the consequences of climate change. We find no evidence that issue frames have an overall effect on opinions about the importance of climate change policy. We do find some evidence that the effect of issue frames varies across ideological and partisan groups. Most notably, issue frames can lead Republicans and those on the political right to view climate change policy as less important. We conclude by discussing our findings relative to extant literature and considering the implications of our findings for those who seek to address the issue of climate change.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Cerium chloride stimulated controlled conversion of B-to-Z DNA in self-assembled nanostructures

DNA adopts different conformation not only because of novel base pairs but also while interacting with inorganic or organic compounds. Self-assembled branched DNA (bDNA) structures or DNA origami that change conformation in response to environmental cues hold great promises in sensing and actuation at the nanoscale. Recently, the B-Z transition in DNA is being explored to design various nanomechanical devices. In this communication we have demonstrated that Cerium chloride binds to the phosphate backbone of self-assembled bDNA structure and induce B-to-Z transition at physiological concentration. The mechanism of controlled conversion from right-handed to left-handed has been assayed by various dye binding studies using CD and fluorescence spectroscopy. Three different bDNA structures have been identified to display B-Z transition. This approach provides a rapid and reversible means to change bDNA conformation, which can be used for dynamic and progressive control at the nanoscale. - Highlights: • Cerium-induced B-to-Z DNA transition in self-assembled nanostructures. • Lower melting temperature of Z-DNA than B-DNA confirmed by CD spectroscopy. • Binding mechanism of cerium chloride is explained using fluorescence spectroscopy. • Right-handed to left-handed DNA conformation is also noticed in modified bDNA structure.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

A roadmap for China to peak carbon dioxide emissions and achieve a 20% share of non-fossil fuels in primary energy by 2030

As part of its Paris Agreement commitment, China pledged to peak carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) emissions around 2030, striving to peak earlier, and to increase the non-fossil share of primary energy to 20% by 2030. Yet by the end of 2017, China emitted 28% of the world's energy-related CO 2 emissions, 76% of which were from coal use. How China can reinvent its energy economy cost-effectively while still achieving its commitments was the focus of a three-year joint research project completed in September 2016. Overall, this analysis found that if China follows a pathway in which it aggressively adopts all cost-effective energy efficiency and CO 2 emission reduction technologies while also aggressively moving away from fossil fuels to renewable and other non-fossil resources, it is possible to not only meet its Paris Agreement Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) commitments, but also to reduce its 2050 CO 2 emissions to a level that is 42% below the country's 2010 CO 2 emissions. While numerous barriers exist that will need to be addressed through effective policies and programs in order to realize these potential energy use and emissions reductions, there are also significant local environmental (e.g., air quality), national and global environmental (e.g., mitigation of climate change), human health, and other unquantified benefits that will be realized if this pathway is pursued in China.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

The “Who” and “How” of Microbial Control over Soil Carbon Dynamics: a Multi-omics, Stable Isotope Probing, and Modeling Approach

Soils are the largest repository of organic carbon (C) in the terrestrial biosphere and represent an important source of CO 2 to the atmosphere, releasing 60-75 Pg C annually through microbial decomposition of organic materials. Microbes are key drivers of C cycling, and exhibit a large range in C use efficiency (CUE). CUE is the substrate C incorporated into biomass per substrate assimilated. While small changes in CUE can have profound effects on soil CO 2 flux, our understanding of the intersection of genomic and abiotic factors driving soil CUE dynamics is still very limited. Our long-term goal is to better predict the fate of soil C by developing mathematical and ecosystem models of SOM decomposition that incorporate a genetic and physiological understanding of CUE. The goal of this work was to define genes, metabolic pathways, and phylogenetic signals associated with microbial CUE for terrestrial microorganisms (bacteria and fungi). Our specific objectives are to: (1) Define genomic markers that indicate how terrestrial bacteria and fungi change CUE in response to environmental drivers of microbial activity; (2) Determine how well genomic markers identified predict CUE in soils; and (3) Improve predictions of soil C by incorporating genomics-informed CUE into ecosystem C models based on genomic features defined in and validated for soil in the course of this work. We address these objectives by coupling multi-omics analyses (genomics, metatranscriptomics) with physiological assays (CUE, enzyme activities) across environmental drivers (substrate quantity/quality, temperature, moisture). We employ a hierarchical approach to incrementally scale from cells to ecosystems, starting with pure cultures of bacteria and fungi, then mock communities in artificial, organic matter-free soil, then finally field soil manipulated to elicit microbial communities differing in community composition and CUE. By focusing on microbial isolates and communities in a temperate forest (Harvard Forest), we leverage a rich context for validating data based on multiple ongoing field, lab and modeling studies of soil C cycling. This research couples two culture collections of fungi and bacteria isolated from the Harvard Forest, along with over a decade of field measurements of CUE and C cycling, and microbial community analyses using metagenomics and metatranscriptomics. Because microbial feedbacks to the environment are regulated at the organismic level, the foundation of this research is the physiology and genomics of CUE among isolates that we have determined to be either dominant in our soil system, sensitive to climate change factors, or both. A series of three experiments using artificial soil, lab incubation of field-collected soil, and a field manipulation is designed to validate potential omics-informed, novel genomic markers to be used as proxies for CUE in models. We test our new understanding of the genetic basis for CUE and its implications for soil C dynamics using the trait-based model DEMENT and the ecosystem models MIIMICS and SCAMPS. All models are modified to simulate SOM decomposition in mineral soils and validated with other temperate forest climate change manipulation studies. By developing mathematical and ecosystem models of SOM decomposition that incorporate a genetic and physiological understanding of CUE, we hope to facilitate more realistic models of SOM decomposition for C cycling in soils.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Seismic Resilience of Large Power Transformer Bushings & Non-SF6 Industrial Base Scan Review

Large (high voltage) power transformers (LPT), and more specifically, their bushings, are known to be susceptible to seismic failure. With bushing failure, a transformer will have to be replaced, which has a considerable lead time, adding to the power outage duration. Cost-efficient, proven solutions are not currently available to mitigate this risk, which can persist for the more than 30-year life of a particular transformer. This work will focus on developing and demonstrating a hardware solution to address seismic vulnerabilities and reduce outage risks from LPT failure. Sulfur Hexafluoride (SF6) is a specialty gas with excellent electrical insulation properties which has been used extensively in the power industry. This gas is unfortunately also one of the most potent greenhouse gases known to humanity. A 2014 report by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change found that SF6 has a global warming potential (GWP) 23,000 times higher than Carbon Dioxide, and has the highest GWP of all gases assessed (Myhre 2013). SF6 is almost exclusively man-made and is produced for use as an insulator in high voltage electrical equipment. This makes the production and use of SF6 one of the leading sources of anthropogenic climate change. To fully eliminate the environmental impacts of SF6, alternative technology is needed. The ideal replacement would be a technology that can fulfil the same role as SF6, at the same cost or cheaper, but without adverse environmental effects. Currently, no technology fits this description, however several promising technologies have begun to enter the market. An industry scan was performed to assess the state of industry adoption and manufacturing capability for SF6-free alternative technologies for use at the high-voltage level, and the primary barriers to broader adoption.

10 SYNTHETIC FUELS↗

Impacts of climate change on future hurricane induced rainfall and flooding in a coastal watershed: A case study on Hurricane Harvey

The warming climate is likely to increase hurricane-associated extreme rainfall and lead to sea-level rise (SLR). Thus, how the floods induced by intense hurricanes respond to these potential changes is of great concern. This study investigates the future warmer climate impacts on hurricane-induced extreme rainfall, and—more importantly—the subsequent compound flooding at the watershed scale (from an event-based analysis perspective). To this goal, a modeling framework is designed based on the Distributed Hydrology Soil Vegetation Model (DHSVM), the Two-Dimensional fvand the Regional Community Earth System Model (R-CESM). The framework was applied to Hurricane Harvey (2017) at the Clear Creek watershed (a coastal watershed in the southern Houston) as a case study. The results show that the projected maximum rainfall totals over the watershed would be exacerbated by 17.7 % and 49.7 % in the 2050s and 2090s (respectively) under Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 (RCP 8.5). This means a 16.1 % increase in Harvey rainfall over the watershed per degree Celsius increase in Mean Surface Temperature over the Gulf of Mexico region (18°~31° N, 77°~98° W). Meanwhile, the increases in maximum inundation extent would be 11.0 % (2050s) and 19.5 % (2090s). Furthermore, considerable increases in maximum inundation depth and duration in regions along the middle and downstream of Clear Creek (and also those around Clear Lake) are expected. The projected SLR will have little effect on the maximum inundation depth and extent if storm surge changes are not taken into account; meanwhile, it will influence the inundation duration at downstream locations. In conclusion, this modeling framework can be also applied at other coastal watersheds to evaluate the projected climate change impacts on the compound flooding induced by extreme climate events.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

How Are Deep Soils Responding to Warming?

Scientists aim to integrate observations from deep-soil-warming experiments worldwide to better understand how ecosystems vital to food security and environmental health will react to climate change.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

A Collaborative Proposal: Simulating and Understanding Abrupt Climate-Ecosystem Changes During Holocene with NCAR-CCSM3

We have made significant progress in our proposed work in the last 4 years (3 years plus 1 year of no cost extension). In anticipation of the next phase of study, we have spent time on the abrupt changes since the last glacial maximum. First, we have performed further model-data comparison based on our baseline TRACE-21 simulation and made important progress towards the understanding of several major climate transitions. Second, we have made a significant effort in processing the model output of TRACE-21 and have put this output on a website for access by the community. Third, we have completed many additional sensitivity experiments. In addition, we have organized synthesis workshops to facilitate and promote transient model-data comparison for the international community. Finally, we have identified new areas of interest for Holocene climate changes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Coast-Urban-Rural Atmospheric Gradient Experiment

Accurately representing the climate and weather variability within cities and providing well-tested representations of the impacts of urban systems on the atmospheric environment are challenges for current earth system models (ESMs). Field data for testing and developing these models are critical to addressing these limitations. The Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) user facility will support a field campaign aimed at understanding how different surface-atmosphere interactions around a city are influencing its climate. The Coast-Urban-Rural Atmospheric Gradient Experiment (CoURAGE) is expected to operate from December 2024 to November 2025 in and around Baltimore, Maryland. With its aging infrastructure, growing susceptibility to heat and flooding, and ongoing issues with air and water pollution, Baltimore is characteristic of many large industrial cities in the Eastern United States. ARM, a U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office of Science user facility, plans to deploy one of its three mobile observatories at Morgan State University’s Clifton Park site in downtown Baltimore. Ancillary ARM sites are also planned for rural Maryland, northwest of the city; and to the southern end of Kent Island in Chesapeake Bay. Data from CoURAGE will complement measurements from the Baltimore Social-Environmental Collaborative (BSEC), one of four DOE Urban Integrated Field Laboratories that will operate in cities across the United States to study urban climate change.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Project Earthrise: Proceedings of the Ninth Annual Conference of in VIVO Planetary Health

The “Earthrise” photograph, taken on the 1968 Apollo 8 mission, became one of the most significant images of the 20th Century. It triggered a profound shift in environmental awareness and the potential for human unity—inspiring the first Earth Day in 1970. Taking inspiration from these events 50 years later, we initiated Project Earthrise at our 2020 annual conference of inVIVO Planetary Health. This builds on the emergent concept of planetary health, which provides a shared narrative to integrate rich and diverse approaches from all aspects of society towards shared solutions to global challenges. The acute catastrophe of the COVID-19 pandemic has drawn greater attention to many other interconnected global health, environmental, social, spiritual, and economic problems that have been underappreciated or neglected for decades. This is accelerating opportunities for greater collaborative action, as many groups now focus on the necessity of a “Great Transition”. While ambitious integrative efforts have never been more important, it is imperative to apply these with mutualistic value systems as a compass, as we seek to make wiser choices. Project Earthrise is our contribution to this important process. This underscores the imperative for creative ecological solutions to challenges in all systems, on all scales with advancing global urbanization in the digital age—for personal, environmental, economic and societal health alike. At the same time, our agenda seeks to equally consider our social and spiritual ecology as it does natural ecology. Revisiting the inspiration of “Earthrise”, we welcome diverse perspectives from across all dimensions of the arts and the sciences, to explore novel solutions and new normative values. Building on academic rigor, we seek to place greater value on imagination, kindness and mutualism as we address our greatest challenges, for the health of people, places and planet.

interdependence↗

Estimation of the end-of-life optical properties of Z-93 thermal control coating for the Space Station Freedom

This paper describes an approach to estimating the 30-year end-of-life optical properties of Z-93 white, thermal control coating on the Space Station Freedom. Estimations of the 30-year end-of-life properties of thermal control coatings are necessary for sizing the thermal radiators. The available flight and ground data and computer generated contamination models are used to predict the effects of ground handling, exposure to UV radiation, and on-orbit contamination on the optical properties of Z-93. The solar absorptance for portions of the thermal control system radiator surfaces is predicted to change from 0.15 to 0.36 after 30 years of low earth orbit environmental exposure. The infrared emittance is predicted to change from 0.92 to 0.90.

Hasegawa, Mark M.↗

Compact Ku-Band T/R Module for High-Resolution Radar Imaging of Cold Land Processes

Global measurement of terrestrial snow cover is critical to two of the NASA Earth Science focus areas: (1) climate variability and change and (2) water and energy cycle. For radar backscatter measurements, Ku-band frequencies, scattered mainly within the volume of the snowpack, are most suitable for the SWE (snow-water equivalent) measurements. To isolate the complex effects of different snowpack (density and snowgrain size), and underlying soil properties and to distinctly determine SWE, the space-based synthetic aperture radar (SAR) system will require a dual-frequency (13.4 and 17.2 GHz) and dual polarization approach. A transmit/receive (T/R) module was developed operating at Ku-band frequencies to enable the use of active electronic scanning phased-array antenna for wide-swath, high-resolution SAR imaging of terrestrial snow cover. The T/R module has an integrated calibrator, which compensates for all environmental- and time-related changes, and results in very stable power and amplitude characteristics. The module was designed to operate over the full frequency range of 13 to 18 GHz, although only the two frequencies, 13.4 GHz and 17.2 GHz, will be used in this SAR radar application. Each channel of the transmit module produces > 4 W (35 dbm) over the operating bandwidth of 20 MHz. The stability requirements of <0.1 dB receive gain accuracy and <0.1 dB transmit power accuracy over a wide temperature range are achieved using a self-correction scheme, which does real-time amplitude calibration so that the module characteristics are continually corrected. All the calibration circuits are within the T/R module. The timing and calibration sequence is stored in a control FPGA (field-programmable gate array) while an internal 128K 8bit high-speed RAM (random access memory) stores all the calibration values. The module was designed using advanced components and packaging techniques to achieve integration of the electronics in a 2 x6.5x1-in. (5x17x2.5-cm) package. The module size allows 4 T/R modules to feed the 16 16-element subarray on an antenna panel. The T/R module contains four transmit channels and eight receive channels (horizontal and vertical polarizations).

Andricos, Constantine↗

Monitoring tropical-cyclone intensity using environmental wind fields derived from short-interval satellite images

The feasibility of predicting changes in tropical storm intensity based on satellite observations of the dynamical relationships between the large-scale upper and lower tropospheric circulations surrounding the cyclone and the characteristics of the storm's inner core is studied. Rapid-scan visible images from the SMS-1 and GOES-1 satellites were used to examine the local change in relative angular momentum (RAM), the lower and upper tropospheric environmental areal mean relative vorticity and transverse circulation on three consecutive days for tropical storms Caroline (August, 1975), Anita (August and September, 1977) and Ella (September, 1978). The three case studies suggest that storm intensification may be predicted from the storm's local change of net RAM, with this quantity best correlated with storm intensification after a time lag of 6 hours. Intensification is also found to be related to the environmental lower and upper tropospheric areal-mean relative vorticity, and to the upper tropospheric environmental circulation, which acts either to hinder or to enhance the storm's anticyclonic outflow channels.

Rodgers, E.↗