Early-Holocene greening of the Afro-Asian dust belt changed sources of mineral dust in West Asia
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Sharifi, Arash (ORCID:0000000222357815)↗
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Climatic controls on erosional efficiency vary with lithology across the Himalaya
Although climate can strongly influence erosional efficiency (i.e., erosion rate for a given topography), demonstrating its impact in tectonically active areas has been challenging due to other confounding controlling factors, such as lithology. Here, we show that 10 Be-derived erosion rates and efficiencies in the Himalayan orogen exhibit distinct relationships with climatic factors depending on lithology. We compile 173 10 Be-derived, basin-averaged erosion rates across the orogen, including 12 newly measured rates from the Dibang and Lohit valleys in the easternmost Himalaya, regions characterized by high precipitation magnitudes and variability. We group basins based on lithologies separated by orogen-scale thrust faults and quantify erosional efficiency coefficients based on the relationships between erosion rates and topographic metrics. Our results show that erosion rates and erosional efficiency from sedimentary and metasedimentary rocks along the Himalayan range front display a positive, nonlinear correlation with climatic factors, such as the number of extreme rainfall events and mean annual precipitation rates. In contrast, erosion rates from crystalline lithologies in the hanging wall of the Main Central thrust show a strong correlation with fluvial topography, whereas erosional efficiency shows no statistically significant correlation with climatic factors. Rapid erosion rates and high erosional efficiencies in the eastern Himalayan range front are likely driven by extreme precipitation on tectonically active, steep slopes composed of mechanically weak metasedimentary rocks. Our findings highlight the importance of the interplay between controlling factors, which include tectonics, lithology, and climate, that drive surface erosion and influence the topographic evolution of orogenic systems.
Channel steepness↗
Migrating Populus with climate change: Phenology, coppice management, cold spell susceptibility, leaf dynamics, and biomass production
Understanding the phenology and productivity of Populus species is crucial for effective management and conservation strategies amid climate change. We investigated leaf budbreak timing, susceptibility to cold damage, leaf dynamics, and biomass production of 168 Populus genotypes with diverse provenances in the southeastern United States. Our study revealed significant variation in budbreak timing across different taxa and years, with genotypes inheriting traits adapted to their parents’ local climates. Temperature emerged as a key factor triggering budbreak, while leaf development depended on other environmental cues such as photoperiod. Notably, budbreak occurred approximately 20 days earlier in 2023 compared to 2022 due to higher accumulated degree days (ADDs). Short-rotation-coppice (SRC) management delayed budbreak by five to ten days. Cold damage was significant in 2023, particularly for genotypes from northern provenances and those with P. maximowiczii parentage. Severe damage was also observed in eastern cottonwood ( Populus deltoides × Populus deltoides (D × D)) genotypes, despite most having southeastern US parentages. Leaf dynamics, including leaf duration and leaf area index (LAI), varied across taxa and sites, with earlier budbreak correlating with extended growing seasons and increased LAI. Biomass production was intricately linked to phenological events, with earlier budbreak leading to increased biomass production and greater susceptibility to cold damage. Our findings highlight the importance of genetics, environment, and coppicing management in understanding and managing Populus phenology and biomass production. These insights provide valuable guidance for developing effective breeding, conservation, and management strategies for Populus species in the context of climate change.
Accumulated degree days (ADDs)↗
Northern pike bycatch in an inland commercial hoop net fishery: effects of water temperature and net tending frequency on injury, physiology, and survival
In lakes and rivers of eastern Ontario (Canada) commercial fishers use hoop nets to target a variety of fishes, but incidentally capture non-target (i.e., bycatch) gamefish species such as northern pike (Esox lucius). Little is known about the consequences of bycatch in inland commercial fisheries, making it difficult to identify regulatory options. Regulations that limit fishing during warmer periods and that require frequent net tending have been proposed as possible strategies to reduce bycatch mortality. Using northern pike as a model, we conducted experiments during two thermal periods (mid-April: 14.45 ± 0.32 °C, and late May: 17.17 ± 0.08 °C) where fish were retained in nets for 2 d and 6 d. A ‘0 d’ control group consisted of northern pike that were angled, immediately sampled and released. We evaluated injury, physiological status and mortality after the prescribed net retention period and for the surviving fish used radio telemetry with manual tracking to monitor delayed post-release mortality. Our experiments revealed that injury levels, in-net mortality, and post-release mortality tended to increase with net set duration and at higher temperatures. Pike exhibited signs of chronic stress and starvation following retention, particularly at higher temperatures. Total mortality rates were negligible for the 2 d holding period at 14 °C, 14% for 6 d holding at 14 °C, 21% for 2 d holding at 17 °C, and 58% for 6 d holding at 17 °C. No mortality was observed in control fish. Collectively, these data reveal that frequent net tending, particularly at warmer temperatures, may be useful for conserving gamefish populations captured as bycatch in inland hoop net fisheries.
discards↗
Does the presence of large down wood at the time of a forest fire impact soil recovery?
Fire may remove or create dead wood aboveground, but it is less clear how high severity burning of soils affects belowground microbial communities and soil processes, and for how long. Here, we investigated soil fungal and bacterial communities and biogeochemical responses of severely burned red soil and less severely burned black soil from a burned forest on the eastern slope of the Cascade Range in Oregon. We examined the effects of burn severity on soil nutrients and microbial communi- ties for 14 years after wildfire. Soil nutrients were significantly reduced in red soils. Soil fungi and bac teria, assessed with molecular methods, steadily colonized both burn severities and soil biodiversity increased throughout the study showing that microbial communities seem to have the capacity to quickly adjust to extreme disturbances. Although richness did not vary by soil type, the fungal and bacterial community compositions varied with burn severity. This difference was greatest in the early time points following the fire and decreased with time. But, nutrient-limited conditions of red soils were detected for four years after the wildfire and raise concern about soil productivity at these sites.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
Whole-tree dormant season nitrogen pools for different species receiving combinations of fertilization and irrigation after one short rotation
Our understanding of the accretion and distribution of tree tissue nitrogen (N) pools across a variety of species and genotypes suitable for short-rotation woody crop (SRWC) production in response to water and N availability remains limited. We measured dormant-season, rotation-length, whole-tree N pools for five tree genotypes from four species (two eastern cottonwood, Populus deltoides Bartr., genotypes; American sycamore, Platanus occidentalis L.; American sweetgum, Liquidambar styraciflua L.; and loblolly pine, Pinus taeda L.) receiving irrigation (I), fertilization (F), their combination (IF), or no resources manipulation (C). Our results demonstrate that foliar nitrogen concentration [N] responded to fertilization but was constrained within genotype-specific ranges and varied temporally. Tree genotypes differed in their composite and component tissue N content (N C ), and these differences mostly reflected tissue mass (i.e., larger components and trees resulted in higher N C ). Resource amendments (I, F, IF) resulted in up to 3.8-fold increases in N C compared with C, which were most pronounced for sycamore and sweetgum with F and IF treatments, respectively. By the end of the rotation, forest stands accumulated 73 to 452 kg N ha –1 in tree tissues with 40 – 78 % distributed aboveground and 22 – 60 % distributed belowground. A critical difference between genotypes was that all hardwoods exhibited larger belowground N distributions than the evergreen conifer. Our results stress the importance of belowground N pools and highlight differences among genotypes. Furthermore, our study underscores valuable information about N pools across genotypes suitable for SRWC production, which can be leveraged to inform fertilization plans and devise sustainable nutrient management as production expands across marginal lands.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
Range-wide population assessments for subalpine fir indicate widespread disturbance-driven decline
Subalpine forests in western North America are threatened by rapid climate change, increased activity by endemic and exotic insects and diseases, and changing wildfire regimes. The interactive effects of these stressors have resulted in pronounced population declines in many subalpine tree species; however, a systematic assessment of the status and trends of subalpine forests is lacking. Subalpine fir (Abies lasiocarpa) is a widespread species across the western United States, with documented population declines in many parts of its distribution. Here we use subalpine fir as an initial leverage point to build a more complete understanding of subalpine forest baseline conditions and responses to environmental change. Specifically, we leverage the USDA Forest Service Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) database to (1) ask how subalpine fir populations are changing across the species’ distribution in the western US, (2) assess the drivers of recent subalpine fir population trends, and (3) explore whether those changes imply generalized species-wide and/or system-wide decline. We found that subalpine fir abundance and basal area are declining concurrently across ~ 62% of the species’ distribution, and increasing across ~ 19%. Range-wide, we estimated 25.02 ± 2.74 % subalpine fir mortality between 2000 and 2009 and 2010–2019 FIA inventory periods, with higher mortality concentrated in the eastern Oregon Cascades, central Idaho, and parts of southern Colorado. High regeneration density did not predict positive population trajectories, which were instead associated with higher rates of adult recruitment. While the importance of different mortality agents varied substantially between ecoregions, 83.4% of total range-wide mortality was related to fire or biological disturbance. Declining subalpine fir basal area coincided with declines in the basal area of other co-occurring tree species in 39% of subalpine forest area, and with increases in conspecific basal area in 22% of forest area. Fire disturbance was the single largest cause of subalpine fir mortality; however, even where subalpine fir fire mortality was high, mortality among other species was primarily caused by insects. In conclusion, our results suggest that subalpine fir declines across large portions of the western United States are driven by forest disturbance, and that declines in subalpine fir populations may be indicative of negative change in subalpine forest systems broadly.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
Signatures of rare earth element distributions in fly ash derived from the combustion of Central Appalachian, Illinois, and Powder River basin coals
We report the distribution of Rare Earth elements (REE) in coal-derived fly ashes can have distinctive patterns when fly ashes are produced from different coals within or between basins, such as the Pennsylvanian Class F fly ashes from the Illinois and Central Appalachian basins. Both the Fire Clay coal and a blend of a number of eastern Kentucky coals show strong Gd peaks and an H-type distribution in the Upper Continental Crust-corrected plots. The Fire Clay coal-derived ash has a higher heavy REE concentration than the blended coal-derived ash. The Illinois Basin-derived fly as has an overall lower REE concentration than the latter ashes. Class C fly ash derived from Powder River Basin coals has, with the exception of an Eu peak, a flatter distribution of REE and an overall L-type or indistinct H- versus L-type distribution. The signatures of the REE in fly ashes may be useful in predicting their behavior in the extraction of the REE; simple extrapolations from the basic concentrations and the predicted extraction percentages for ashes from different basins are not necessarily indicative of the actual distribution of the extracted REE.
01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗
Accumulation of Fe oxyhydroxides in the Peruvian oxygen deficient zone implies non-oxygen dependent Fe oxidation
Oxygen minimum zones (OMZs) have been proposed to be an important source of dissolved iron (Fe) into the interior ocean. However, previous studies in OMZs have shown a sharp decrease in total dissolved Fe (dFe) and/or dissolved Fe(II) (dFe(II)) concentrations at the shelf-break, despite constant temperature, salinity and continued lack of oxygen across the shelf-break. The loss of both total dFe and dFe(II) suggests a conversion of the dFe to particulate form, but studies that have coupled the reduction-oxidation (redox) speciation of both dissolved and particulate phases have not previously been done. Here in this work, we have measured the redox speciation and concentrations of both dissolved and particulate forms of Fe in samples collected during the U.S. GEOTRACES Eastern tropical Pacific Zonal Transect (EPZT) cruise in 2013 (GP16). This complete data set allows us to assess possible mechanisms for loss of dFe. We observed an offshore loss of dFe(II) within the oxygen deficient zone (ODZ), where dissolved oxygen is undetectable, accompanied by an increase in total particulate Fe (pFe). Total pFe concentrations were highest in the upper ODZ. X-ray absorption spectroscopy revealed that the pFe maximum was primarily in the Fe(III) form as Fe(III) oxyhydroxides. The remarkable similarity in the distributions of total particulate iron and nitrite suggests a role for nitrite in the oxidation of dFe(II) to pFe(III). Lastly, we present a conceptual model for the rapid redox cycling of Fe that occurs in ODZs, despite the absence of oxygen.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
Geochemical and multi-isotopic ( 87 Sr/ 86 Sr, 143 Nd/ 144 Nd, 238 U/ 235 U) perspectives of sediment sources, depositional conditions, and diagenesis of the Marcellus Shale, Appalachian Basin, USA
Here, we investigate sediment sources, depositional conditions and diagenetic processes affecting the Middle Devonian Marcellus Shale in the Appalachian Basin, eastern USA, a major target of natural gas exploration. Multiple proxies, including trace metal contents, rare earth elements (REE), the Sm-Nd and Rb-Sr isotope systems, and U isotopes were applied to whole rock digestions and sequentially extracted fractions of the Marcellus shale and adjacent units from two locations in the Appalachian Basin. The narrow range of εNd values (from –7.8 to –6.4 at 390 Ma) is consistent with derivation of the clastic sedimentary component of the Marcellus Shale from a well-mixed source of fluvial and eolian material of the Grenville orogenic belt, and indicate minimal post-depositional alteration of the Sm-Nd system. While silicate minerals host >80% of the REE in the shale, data from sequentially extracted fractions reflect post-depositional modifications at the mineralogical scale, which is not observed in whole rock REE patterns.
58 GEOSCIENCES↗
Comparison of Forest Soil Carbon Dynamics at Five Sites Along a Latitudinal Gradient
Carbon stocks, and C:N ratios, were measured in the forest floor, mineral soil, and two mineral soil fractions (particulate and mineral-associated organic matter, POM and MOM, respectively) at five forest sites, ranging from 60 to 100 years old, along a latitudinal gradient in the eastern United States. Sampling at four sites was replicated over two consecutive years. For many measurements (like forest floor carbon stocks, cumulative soil organic carbon stocks to 20 cm, and the fraction of whole soil carbon in POM), there was no significant difference between years at each site despite the use of somewhat different sampling methods. With one exception, forest floor and mineral soil carbon stocks increased from warm, southern, sites (with fine-textured soils) to northern, cool, sites (with more coarse-textured soils). The exception was a northern site, with less than 10% silt-clay content, that had a soil organic carbon stock similar to those measured at southern sites. Soil carbon at each site was partitioned into two pools (labile and stable) on the basis of carbon measured in the forest floor and POM and MOM fractions from the mineral soil. A two-compartment steady-state model, with randomly varying parameter values, was used in probabilistic calculations to estimate the turnover time of labile soil organic carbon (MRTU) and the annual transfer of labile carbon to stable carbon (k2) at each site in two different years. Based on empirical data, the turnover time of stable soil carbon (MRTS) was determined by mean annual temperature and increased from 30 to 100 years from south to north. Moving from south to north, MRTU increased from approximately 5 to 14 years. Consistent with prior studies, 13C enrichment factors ( ) from the Rayleigh equation, that describe the rate of change in 13C through the soil profile, were an indicator of soil carbon turnover times along the latitudinal gradient. Consistent with its role in stabilization of soil organic carbon, silt-clay content along the gradient was positively correlated (r = 0.91; P 0.001) with parameter k2. Mean annual temperature was indicated as the environmental factor most strongly associated with south to north differences in the storage and turnover of labile soil carbon. However, soil texture appeared to override the influence of temperature when there was too little silt-clay content to stabilize labile soil carbon and thereby protect it from decomposition. Irrespective of latitudinal differences in measured soil carbon stocks, each study site had a relatively high proportion of labile soil carbon (approximately 50% of whole soil carbon to a depth of 20 cm). Depending on unknown temperature sensitivities, large labile pools of forest soil carbon are potentially at risk of depletion by decomposition in a warming climate, and losses could be disproportionately higher from coarse textured forest soils.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
Belowground cross-trophic networks impact CH4 and CO2 emissions in degraded alpine peatlands
Belowground organisms forming complex cross-trophic ecological networks are essential for maintaining peatland carbon stability and energy flow. However, how peatland degradation affects the biodiversity and cross-trophic ecological networks of soil communities remains poorly understood. Here, we examined the degradation effects on soil prokaryotes (i.e., bacteria, archaea), fungi and nematodes in alpine peatlands on the eastern Tibetan Plateau, characterized by varying water table depths (indicating degradation levels). We found that peatland degradation, accompanied by significant shifts in soil moisture and pH (P < 0.05), reduced the taxonomic richness and phylogenetic diversity of prokaryotes, fungi, and nematodes, particularly in deeper soil layers (20–50 cm). Crucially, peatland degradation weakened potential cross-trophic interactions within bipartite networks of prokaryotes-nematodes and fungi-nematodes, resulting in less than 6.5 %–28.8 % of unchanged modules. Degradation-induced changes in soil moisture and pH were identified as primary drivers of biodiversity loss and network restructuring. Furthermore, such changes of belowground cross-trophic networks (particularly prokaryote-nematode) were significantly correlated with greenhouse gas emissions, such as decreased CO2 emissions, maintained CH4 emissions (leading to a higher CH4/CO2 ratio in deep layers), and reduced temperature sensitivity (Q10) of soil respiration. These findings underscore the critical need to protect soil biodiversity and cross-trophic networks in peatlands, particularly under the threat of climate change, to preserve peatland carbon stocks and maintain ecosystem stability. Our findings highlight that belowground cross-trophic networks are pivotal to decipher soil carbon dynamics of degraded peatlands and project the fate of peatland carbon stocks under future climate change scenarios.
Cross-trophic networks↗
Controls on aggradation and incision in the NE Negev, Israel, since the middle Pleistocene
Here, we investigated the mid-Pleistocene to recent aggradation-incision pattern of two drainage systems (Nahal Peres and Nahal Tahmas) in the hyperarid north eastern Negev desert, southern Israel. Although these drainage systems drain into the tectonically active Dead Sea basin, lake level fluctuations cannot account for the aggradation-incision pattern as bedrock knickpoints disconnect the investigated parts of these drainage systems from base level influence. We applied geomorphic mapping, soil stratigraphy, optically stimulated luminescence (OSL) and cosmogenic (in situ 10 Be) exposure dating to reconstruct cycles of aggradation and incision of alluvial terraces and to study their temporal association with regional periods of humidity and aridity and global glacial-interglacial cycles. The spatial and temporal relationships between the alluvial units suggest changes in the drainage system behavior since the middle Pleistocene, and show a pattern in which prolonged periods of sediment aggradation alternated with short periods of rapid and intense degradation through erosion and incision into sediment and bedrock. We obtain ages for several Pleistocene-Holocene periods of incision: ~ 1.1 Ma, ~ 300 ka, ~ 120 ka, ~ 20 ka, ~ 12 ka and ~ 2 ka. Although broadly synchronous, the Nahal Peres and Nahal Tahmas systems exhibit temporal differences in aggradation and incision.
58 GEOSCIENCES↗
Terrestrial cosmogenic surface exposure dating of glacial and associated landforms in the Ruby Mountains-East Humboldt Range of central Nevada and along the northeastern flank of the Sierra Nevada
Deposits near Lamoille in the Ruby Mountains-East Humboldt Range of central Nevada and at Woodfords on the eastern edge of the Sierra Nevada each record two distinct glacial advances. In this paper, we compare independent assessments of terrestrial cosmogenic nuclide (TCN) surface exposure ages for glacial deposits that we have determined to those obtained by others at the two sites. At each site, TCN ages of boulders on moraines of the younger advance are between 15 and 30 ka and may be associated with marine oxygen isotope stage (MIS) 2. At Woodfords, TCN ages of boulders on the moraine of the older advance are younger than ~ 60 ka and possibly formed during MIS 4, whereas boulders on the correlative outwash surface show ages approaching 140 ka (~ MIS 6). The TCN ages of boulders on older glacial moraine at Woodfords thus appear to severely underestimate the true age of the glacial advance responsible for the deposit. The same is possibly true at Lamoille where clasts sampled from the moraine of the oldest advance have ages ranging between 20 and 40 ka with a single outlier age of ~ 80 ka. The underestimations are attributed to the degradation and denudation of older moraine crests. Noting that boulder ages on the older advances at each site overlap significantly with MIS 2. Finally, we speculate that erosion of the older moraines has been episodic, with a pulse of denudation accompanying the inception of MIS 2 glaciation.
58 GEOSCIENCES↗
Evolving physical and mechanical rock properties during exposure at Earth's surface
Rocks at Earth's surface experience progressive damage due to exposure to environmental conditions. Although environmental damage to rocks is recognized as being time-dependent, our quantitative understanding of its effects on physical and mechanical properties remains limited by field and laboratory studies constrained to short timescales. In this study, we aim to rigorously quantify how these properties evolve under longer natural environmental exposure spanning from the Holocene to the late Pleistocene. We conducted a ‘time series’ analysis of key physical and mechanical rock properties using multiple interior samples from 10 cogenetic granitoid boulders exposed for different amounts of time at two sites in Eastern California, USA. We find that over the late Pleistocene (~30 ka), rocks exhibit porosity increases of 40 ± 4 % and seismic velocity decreases of 7 ± 1 % at both sites. Similarly, over the same time period, rock tensile and compressive strengths declined by an average of 11 ± 4 %, and rock permeability increased on average by 104 ± 50 %. Microscopic analysis of thin sections of the same rocks indicates that microfracture density and intensity also progressively increased over the same timescales. These results suggest that time-dependent fracture propagation due to environmental exposure is likely a central contributor to the observed changes in rock properties. This study provides quantitative documentation that pronounced changes in the physical and mechanical properties of rock progressively occur within thousands of years of exposure.
Critical zone↗
Play-fairway analysis for geothermal resources and exploration risk in the Modoc Plateau region
The region surrounding the Modoc Plateau, encompassing parts of northeastern California, southern Oregon, and northwestern Nevada, lies at an intersection between two tectonic provinces; the Basin and Range province and the Cascade volcanic arc. Both of these provinces have substantial geothermal resource base and resource potential. Geothermal systems with evidence of magmatic heat, associated with Cascade arc magmatism, typify the western side of the region. Systems on the eastern side of the region appear to be fault controlled with heat derived from high crustal heat flow, both of which are typical of the Basin and Range. As it has the potential to host Cascade arc-type geothermal resources, Basin and Range-type geothermal resources, and/or resources with characteristics of both provinces, and because there is relatively little current development, the Modoc Plateau region represents an intriguing potential for undiscovered geothermal resources. It remains unclear however, what specific set(s) of characteristics are diagnostic of Modoc-type geothermal systems and how or if those characteristics are distinct from Basin and Range-type or Cascade arc-type geothermal systems. In order to evaluate the potential for undiscovered geothermal resources in the Modoc area, we integrate a wide variety of existing data in order to evaluate geothermal resource potential and exploration risk utilizing ‘play-fairway’ analysis. Here, we consider that the requisite parameters for hydrothermal circulation are: 1) heat that is sufficient to drive circulation, and 2) permeability that is sufficient to allow for fluid circulation in the subsurface. We synthesize data that indicate the extent and distribution of these parameters throughout the Modoc region. ‘Fuzzy logic’ is used to incorporate expert opinion into the utility of each dataset as an indicator of either heat or permeability, and thus geothermal favorability. The results identify several geothermal prospects, areas that are highly favorable for the occurrence of both heat and permeability. These are also areas where there is sufficient data coverage, quality, and consistency that the exploration risk is relatively low. These unknown, undeveloped, and under-developed prospects are well-suited for continued exploration efforts. The results also indicate to what degree the two ‘play-types,’ i.e. Cascade arc-type or Basin and Range-type, apply to each of the geothermal prospects, a useful guide in exploration efforts.
15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗
A probabilistic application of oil and gas data for exploration stage geothermal reservoir assessment in the Appalachian Basin
Geothermal energy is a renewable, widespread, baseload energy source that has the potential to supply a large portion of the world’s energy needs. High development risk, specifically high drilling costs combined with uncertainty in subsurface flow properties, have hampered growth of geothermal energy development. One option to reduce subsurface risk is to target locations where reservoir data are already available, including sedimentary basins where there has been extensive hydrocarbon production. Sedimentary basins are widespread and often have suitable geothermal gradients. This chapter presents a low-cost methodology that can be used at the pre-drilling exploration phase of a low-temperature geothermal project to predict the location of high-productivity and low-risk reservoirs, applied to a case study of the Appalachian Basin in the eastern United States. Because only averaged reservoir data were available for analysis, the technique uses a Monte Carlo simulation of the Reservoir Flow Capacity (RFC) and Reservoir Productivity Index (RPI) for over 1800 individual reservoirs, using liquid water or supercritical carbon dioxide (sCO 2 ) as the reservoir fluid. RFC is used as an initial screening tool to identify high-priority geologic formations and reservoirs. Here our results indicate that 99% of the reservoirs in the basin are of insufficient quality for geothermal heat production with water as the assumed fluid and without using stimulation technologies associated with Enhanced Geothermal Systems (EGS). RPI is also used as an alternative metric to identify high-productivity reservoirs. When comparing the RPI results to natural gas production volumes from several selected reservoirs, the predicted RPI proves to be a good estimate of flow potential for porous reservoirs, but overestimates flow by a factor of three for fractured or vuggy reservoirs. A greater uncertainty ought to be utilized when applying the RPI equation to non-porous media, therefore we recommend utilizing the RPI metric when higher resolution data are available for analysis. This methodology can be utilized in other basins that have experienced hydrocarbon exploration and production, to highlight low-risk reservoirs or geologic formations for further geothermal development.
15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗
Regional hydrologic response to climate change in the conterminous United States using high-resolution hydroclimate simulations
Despite the fact that Global Climate Model (GCM) outputs have been used to project hydrologic impacts of climate change using off-line hydrologic models for two decades, many of these efforts have been disjointed applications or at least calibrations have been focused on individual river basins and using a few of the available GCMs. This study improves upon earlier attempts by systematically projecting hydrologic impacts for the entire conterminous United States (US), using outputs from ten GCMs from the latest Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) archive, with seamless hydrologic model calibration and validation techniques to produce a spatially and temporally consistent set of current hydrologic projections. The Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model was forced with ten-member ensemble projections of precipitation and air temperature that were dynamically downscaled using a regional climate model (RegCM4) and bias-corrected to 1/24 (~4 km) grid resolution for the baseline (1966 2005) and future (2011 2050) periods under the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5. Based on regional analysis, the VIC model projections indicate an increase in winter and spring total runoff due to increases in winter precipitation of up to 20% in most regions of the US. However, decreases in snow water equivalent (SWE) and snow-covered days will lead to significant decreases in summer runoff with more pronounced shifts in the time of occurrence of annual peak runoff projected over the eastern and western US. In contrast, the central US will experience year-round increases in total runoff, mostly associated with increases in both extreme high and low runoff. Furthermore, the projected hydrological changes described in this study have implications for various aspects of future water resource management, including water supply, flood and drought preparation, and reservoir operation.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗