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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2022

Predictability and empirical dynamics of fisheries time series in the North Pacific

Previous studies have documented a strong relationship between marine ecosystems and large-scale modes of sea surface height (SSH) and sea surface temperature (SST) variability in the North Pacific such as the Pacific Decadal Oscillation and the North Pacific Gyre Oscillation. In the central and western North Pacific along the Kuroshio-Oyashio Extension (KOE), the expression of these modes in SSH and SST is linked to the propagation of long oceanic Rossby waves, which extend the predictability of the climate system to ~3 years. Using a multivariate physical-biological linear inverse model (LIM) we explore the extent to which this physical predictability leads to multi-year prediction of dominant fishery indicators inferred from three datasets (i.e., estimated biomasses, landings, and catches). We find that despite the strong autocorrelation in the fish indicators, the LIM adds dynamical forecast skill beyond persistence up to 5-6 years. By performing a sensitivity analysis of the LIM forecast model, we find that two main factors are essential for extending the dynamical predictability of the fishery indicators beyond persistence. The first is the interaction of the fishery indicators with the SST/SSH of the North and tropical Pacific. The second is the empirical relationship among the fisheries time series. This latter component reflects stock-stock interactions as well as common technological and human socioeconomic factors that may influence multiple fisheries and are captured in the training of the LIM. These results suggest that empirical dynamical models and machine learning algorithms, such as the LIM, provide an alternative and promising approach for forecasting key ecological indicators beyond the skill of persistence.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1995

Investigation of air transportation technology at Ohio University: 1993-1994

The Joint University Program (JUP) offers students, faculty, and staff of the Avionics Engineering Center the opportunity to conduct basic research relating to the safety and efficiency of the National Airspace System. During the 1993-1994 year research was continued in a variety of GPS-related technologies and also in a hybrid data uplink system. (1) Processing techniques developed for the GPS attitude determination have been applied to centimeter-level kinematic GPS aircraft positioning for flight reference systems and aircraft autoland and taxiing operations. This resulted in the first real-time kinematic GPS autoland. (2) The fault detection and isolation (FDI) algorithm developed under the Joint University Program has been fully adopted by RTCA Special Committee 159 as the baseline algorithm for sole-means navigation of GPS integrated with GLONASS, LORAN-C, or baro-altimeter. (3) A Satellite Coverage Research Analysis Model (SCRAM) has been developed which provides outage areas, outage dynamics, and availability information for satellite-based navigation systems. RTCA Special Committee 159 has adopted this model for use in their work. (4) A basic receiver structure has been simulated and tested for use with the hybrid data uplink. This uplink utilizes the phase of an existing AM carrier to transmit digital data, thus both amplitude and phase modulation are applied, resulting in a hybrid carrier. The receiver simulation is directly applicable to real-time implementation as a result of the development platform.

Lilley, Robert W.↗
DOE OSTI2024

Reduced‐Order Probabilistic Emulation of Physics‐Based Ring Current Models: Application to RAM‐SCB Particle Flux

Abstract In this work, we address the computational challenge of large‐scale physics‐based simulation models for the ring current. Reduced computational cost allows for significantly faster than real‐time forecasting, enhancing our ability to predict and respond to dynamic changes in the ring current, valuable for space weather monitoring and mitigation efforts. Additionally, it can also be used for a comprehensive investigation of the system. Thus, we aim to create an emulator for the Ring current‐Atmosphere interactions Model with Self‐Consistent magnetic field (RAM‐SCB) particle flux that not only improves efficiency but also facilitates forecasting with reliable estimates of prediction uncertainties. The probabilistic emulator is built upon the methodology developed by Licata and Mehta (2023), https://doi.org/10.1029/2022sw003345 . A novel discrete sampling is used to identify 30 simulation periods over 20 years of solar and geomagnetic activity. Focusing on a subset of particle flux, we use Principal Component Analysis for dimensionality reduction and Long Short‐Term Memory (LSTM) neural networks to perform dynamic modeling. Hyperparameter space was explored extensively resulting in about 5% median symmetric accuracy across all data sets for one‐step dynamic prediction. Using a hierarchical ensemble of LSTMs, we have developed a reduced‐order probabilistic emulator (ROPE) tailored for time‐series forecasting of particle flux in the ring current. This ROPE offers accurate predictions of omnidirectional flux at a single energy with no pitch angle information, providing robust predictions on the test set with an error score below 11% and calibration scores under 8% with bias under 2% providing a significant speed up as compared to the full RAM‐SCB run.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Imaging Wavepackets in Real-Space & Disentangling Ultrafast Solvation Dynamics with High-Energy Ultrafast X-ray Scattering

The microscopic information of solute and solute-solvent motions can be measured using ultrafast diffuse x-ray scattering, and compared to molecular dynamics simulations, as demonstrated in studies of solvated molecular systems done in X-ray free-electron lasers. However, for the typical photon energies used in these experiments, the photon momentum transfer range was limited to lower Q values where the signals arising from different parts of the studied system overlap significantly. Recently, this limitation was greatly alleviated by extending the photon energy at the Linac Coherent Light-Source (LCLS), significantly increasing the accessible momentum transfer range. This improvement is transformative for ultrafast diffuse x-ray scattering measurements, enabling for the first time to disentangle the solute scattering difference signal, that persists to higher Q values, from the bulk solvent and solute-solvent cross-terms difference signals. In addition, it enhances the prediction ability of modeling and simulation methods such as the hybrid QM/MM approach. The extended Q range also opens the way to resolve in real-space details regarding coherent wavepackets motions beyond their center-of-mass positions. Here, we present the first results on high-energy (18keV) diffuse x-ray scattering in solution, demonstrating high fidelity time-resolved scattering and analysis of the photoexcited model photocatalysts PtPOP ([Pt2(POP)4]4-), and IrDimen ([Ir2(dimen)4]2+) in several solvents. These complexes provide ideal systems for demonstrating the ability of high-Q ultrafast scattering and QM/MM simulations to decompose ultrafast solvation dynamics into specific changes in the solute-solvent pair distribution function with a particular focus on how electronically excited states change the interaction between the solvent and photo-catalytically active metal sites. We introduce an approach to further utilize the high-energy capability and demonstrate a single-shot ultra-wide-angle X-ray Scattering modality using two perpendicular detectors, spanning a scattering angle range of more than 100 degrees, allowing to extend the accessible momentum transfer range up to Q~14 Å-1. We develop a model-free method to invert the x-ray scattering signals and enable the recovery of multiple pair-density motions that happen simultaneously, allowing us to directly measure in real-space nuclear wavepacket motions. . [1] Natan, Adi. "Real-Space Inversion and Super-Resolution of Ultrafast X-ray Scattering using Natural Scattering Kernels." arXiv preprint arXiv:2107.05576 (2021)

Natan, Adi↗
DOE OSTI2020

DFT Accurate Interatomic Potential for Molten NaCl from Machine Learning

Molten alkali chloride salts are a critical component in concentrated solar power and nuclear applications. Despite their ubiquity, the extreme chemical reactivity of molten alkali chlorides at high temperatures has presented a significant challenge in characterizing atomic structures and dynamic properties experimentally. In this work, we we investigate molten NaCl by performing high temperature molecular dynamics simulations using a Gaussian Approximation Potential (GAP) trained on Density Functional Theory (DFT) datasets. Our GAP model, trained with a meager 1000 atomic configurations, arrives at near ab initio accuracy with a mean absolute error of 1.5 meV/atom thus enabling fast analysis of high temperature salt properties on large length (5000 ion pairs) and time (> 1ns) scales currently inaccessible to ab initio simulations. Calculated structure factors and diffusion constants from our GAP model simulations show excellent agreement with experiments. Our results indicate that GAP models are able to capture the many-body interactions required to accurately model ionic-systems.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
NASA NTRS1997

X-Ray Transmission Microscope Development

We have succeeded in meeting the goals set out in the proposal. A cadre of detector technologies is available to suit the requirements of the experiment. Resolutions of both real-time and absolute limits to resolution exceed the initial aspirations. Obtaining sufficient contrast is still a significant limitation but can be overcome by Judicious selection of the specimen composition. This can only take time and trial and error for a successful result. The 4th generation furnace provides the capability of real-time in-situ observations of composite alloy development. A low detection sensitivity however, has still made it difficult to observe dendritic growth, although it has been 'seen' in raw video; it was not a recordable signal. We have examined flight ampoules with XTM to observe particle and thermocouple placement, crucible flaws and cracks in collaboration with the Particle Pushing and Engulfment flight experiment (Dr. Stefanescu, UA, P.I.). The value of an in flight XTM to guard against experiment failure and safety assurance is obvious. Although not attributable to equipment limitations, a quest to observe particle pushing was not successful. We tried at length to prepare specimens that would demonstrate particle pushing. Instead, we were successful in imaging the interface deformation due to the thermal field distortion of a ceramic particle or void and to compare to calculated shapes. In theory, we should have been able to make major inroads to this field if the particles could be pushed and the velocities adjusted to make critical measurements. On the other hand, critical issues of sample preparation for the PEP flight experiment were established, particularly the clustering of particles and trapped voids. In this regard, the XTM did prove very useful so that flight specimens would work as expected and to perform post flight analysis. Although not a clear result, particle pushing of precipitates was observed in an Al-Si-Mn alloy. It may be that to be pushed, the particles need to be small and have clean surfaces like one might obtain from in-situ precipitation. The ability to image features in real time skill enable more fundamental and detailed understanding of solidification dynamics in microgravity than had previously been possible, thus, allowing the full benefits of microgravity experiments be applied towards rigorous testing of critical solidification models. The XTM is also a valuable tool for post solidification metallography. The 3-dimensional distribution of solute and solidification features within the specimen volume can be viewed without sectioning or other treatment when the solute has sufficiently higher atomic mass than the solvent. Thus the XTM could provide the first practical method for on orbit microstructural (metallographic) analysis by the astronauts or by telescience.

Kaukler, William F.↗
NASA NTRS2021

How Well Do Multisatellite Products Capture the Space–Time Dynamics of Precipitation? Part I: Five Products Assessed via a Wavenumber–Frequency Decomposition

As more global satellite-derived precipitation products become available, it is imperative to evaluate them more carefully for providing guidance as to how well precipitation space–time features are captured for use in hydrologic modeling, climate studies, and other applications. Here we propose a space–time Fourier spectral analysis and define a suite of metrics that evaluate the spatial organization of storm systems, the propagation speed and direction of precipitation features, and the space–time scales at which a satellite product reproduces the variability of a reference “ground-truth” product (“effective resolution”). We demonstrate how the methodology relates to our physical intuition using the case study of a storm system with rich space–time structure. We then evaluate five high-resolution multisatellite products (CMORPH, GSMaP, IMERG-Early, IMERG-Final, and PERSIANN-CCS) over a period of 2 years over the southeastern United States. All five satellite products show generally consistent space–time power spectral density when compared to a reference ground gauge–radar dataset (GV-MRMS), revealing agreement in terms of average morphology and dynamics of precipitation systems. However, a deficit of spectral power at wavelengths shorter than 200 km and periods shorter than 4 h reveals that all satellite products are excessively “smooth.” The products also show low levels of spectral coherence with the gauge–radar reference at these fine scales, revealing discrepancies in capturing the location and timing of precipitation features. From the space–time spectral coherence, the IMERG-Final product shows superior ability in resolving the space–time dynamics of precipitation down to 200-km and 4-h scales compared to the other products.

Clement Guilloteau↗
NASA NTRS1988

Observation of sea-ice dynamics using synthetic aperture radar images: Automated analysis

The European Space Agency's ERS-1 satellite, as well as others planned to follow, is expected to carry synthetic-aperture radars (SARs) over the polar regions beginning in 1989. A key component in utilization of these SAR data is an automated scheme for extracting the sea-ice velocity field from a time sequence of SAR images of the same geographical region. Two techniques for automated sea-ice tracking, image pyramid area correlation (hierarchical correlation) and feature tracking, are described. Each technique is applied to a pair of Seasat SAR sea-ice images. The results compare well with each other and with manually tracked estimates of the ice velocity. The advantages and disadvantages of these automated methods are pointed out. Using these ice velocity field estimates it is possible to construct one sea-ice image from the other member of the pair. Comparing the reconstructed image with the observed image, errors in the estimated velocity field can be recognized and a useful probable error display created automatically to accompany ice velocity estimates. It is suggested that this error display may be useful in segmenting the sea ice observed into regions that move as rigid plates of significant ice velocity shear and distortion.

Vesecky, John F.↗
DOE OSTI2020

Correlation between the temperature evolution of the interfacial region and the growing dynamic cooperativity length scale

Here, we study experimentally the temperature evolution of the thickness of the interfacial layer, L int (T), between bulk matrices and the surface of nanoparticles in nanocomposites through broadband dielectric spectroscopy. Analyses revealed a power-law dependence between the logarithm of structural relaxation time in the interfacial layer, τ int (T), and the L int (T): ln τ i n t ( T ) / τ 0 ∝ L i n t β ( T ) / T , with τ 0 ~ 10 –12 s, and β index ~0.67 at high temperatures and ~1.7 at temperatures close to the glass transition temperature. In addition, our analysis revealed that the L int (T) is comparable to the length scale of dynamic heterogeneity estimated from previous nonlinear dielectric measurements and the four-point NMR [ξ NMR (T)], with L int (T) ~ ξ NMR (T). These observations may suggest a direct correlation between the L int (T) and the size of the cooperatively rearranging regions and have strong implications for understanding the dynamic heterogeneity and cooperativity in supercool liquids and their role in interfacial dynamics.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2017

Dynamics of the Bingham Canyon rock avalanches (Utah, USA) resolved from topographic, seismic, and infrasound data: Bingham Canyon Rock Avalanches

The 2013 Bingham Canyon Mine rock avalanches represent one of the largest cumulative landslide events in recorded U.S. history and provide a unique opportunity to test remote analysis techniques for landslide characterization. We combine aerial photogrammetry surveying, topographic reconstruction, numerical runout modeling, and analysis of broadband seismic and infrasound data to extract salient details of the dynamics and evolution of the multiphase landslide event. Our results reveal a cumulative intact rock source volume of 52 Mm 3 , which mobilized in two main rock avalanche phases separated by 1.5 h. We estimate that the first rock avalanche had 1.5–2 times greater volume than the second. Each failure initiated by sliding along a gently dipping (21°), highly persistent basal fault before transitioning to a rock avalanche and spilling into the inner pit. The trajectory and duration of the two rock avalanches were reconstructed using runout modeling and independent force history inversion of intermediate-period (10–50 s) seismic data. Intermediate- and shorter-period (1–50 s) seismic data were sensitive to intervals of mass redirection and constrained finer details of the individual slide dynamics. Back projecting short-period (0.2–1 s) seismic energy, we located the two rock avalanches within 2 and 4 km of the mine. Further analysis of infrasound and seismic data revealed that the cumulative event included an additional 11 smaller landslides (volumes ~10 4 –10 5 m 3 ) and that a trailing signal following the second rock avalanche may result from an air-coupled Rayleigh wave. These results demonstrate new and refined techniques for detailed remote characterization of the dynamics and evolution of large landslides.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Automated Hybrid Variance Reduction on Advanced Architectures in the Shift Monte Carlo Code

Monte Carlo transport methods are the most accurate schemes for solving problems with complex energy and spatial features, but they come with a high computational cost. Although hybrid methods have enabled the use of Monte Carlo transport for a large class of problems, they still require significant computing resources. Modern multicore CPUs with large numbers of compute cores and graphical processing units (GPUs) provide opportunities to optimize the memory and run-time costs of hybrid Monte Carlo methods. This paper documents the development and analysis of three Monte Carlo transport algorithms that support hybrid transport using the consistent adjoint-driven importance sampling (CADIS) and forward-weighted CADIS methods in the Shift Monte Carlo code: history-based transport using static and dynamic threading on multicore CPUs and event-based transport enabling weight window tracking on GPUs. The results are shown for two challenging hybrid problems on the Frontier supercomputer at the Oak Ridge Leadership Computing Facility. The results show that all three methods yield good performance and enable solutions of difficult fixed-source transport problems in less than 2 min on 20 nodes of Frontier. Dynamic threading was observed to give up to 20% better scaling behavior than static threading. Moreover, the AMD Instinct 250X GPU was found to give 9 to 11 times greater throughput per graphics compute die than the best CPU performance. In conclusion, additional opportunities for optimization of hybrid transport on GPUs are discussed.

Denovo↗
DOE OSTI2020

Data-Driven Approach for Uncertainty Propagation and Reachability Analysis in Dynamical Systems

In this paper, we propose a data-driven approach for uncertainty propagation and reachability analysis in a dynamical system. The proposed approach relies on the linear lifting of a nonlinear system using linear Perron-Frobenius (P-F) and Koopman operators. Here, the uncertainty can be characterized in terms of the moments of a probability density function. We demonstrate how the P-F and Koopman operators are used for propagating the moments. Time-series data is used for the finite-dimensional approximation of the linear operators, thereby enabling data-driven approach for moment propagation. Simulation results are presented to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed method.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2021

From Femtoseconds to Gigaseconds: The SolDeg Platform for the Performance Degradation Analysis of Silicon Heterojunction Solar Cells

Heterojunction Si solar cells exhibit notable performance degradation. Here, we modeled this degradation by electronic defects getting generated by thermal activation across energy barriers over time. To analyze the physics of this degradation, we developed the SolDeg platform to simulate the dynamics of electronic defect generation. First, femtosecond molecular dynamics simulations were performed to create a-Si/c-Si stacks, using the machine learning-based Gaussian approximation potential. Second, we created shocked clusters by a cluster blaster method. Third, the shocked clusters were analyzed to identify which of them supported electronic defects. Fourth, the distribution of energy barriers that control the generation of these electronic defects was determined. Fifth, an accelerated Monte Carlo method was developed to simulate the thermally activated time-dependent defect generation across the barriers. Our main conclusions are as follows. (1) The degradation of a-Si/c-Si heterojunction solar cells via defect generation is controlled by a broad distribution of energy barriers. (2) We developed the SolDeg platform to track the microscopic dynamics of defect generation across this wide barrier distribution and determined the time-dependent defect density N(t) from femtoseconds to gigaseconds, over 24 orders of magnitude in time. (3) We have shown that a stretched exponential analytical form can successfully describe the defect generation N(t) over at least 10 orders of magnitude in time. (4) We found that in relative terms, Voc degrades at a rate of 0.2%/year over the first year, slowing with advancing time. (5) We developed the time correspondence curve to calibrate and validate the accelerated testing of solar cells. We found a compellingly simple scaling relationship between accelerated and normal times t normal ∝ t accel T(accel)/T(normal) . (6) We also carried out experimental studies of defect generation in a-Si:H/c-Si stacks. We found a relatively high degradation rate at early times that slowed considerably at longer time scales.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
NASA NTRS1978

Comet Tempel 2: Orbit, ephemerides and error analysis

The dynamical behavior of comet Tempel 2 is investigated and the comet is found to be very well behaved and easily predictable. The nongravitational forces affecting the motion of this comet are the smallest of any comet that is affected by nongravitational forces. The sign and time history of these nongravitational forces imply (1) a direct rotation of the comet's nucleus and (2) the comet's ability to outgas has not changed substantially over its entire observational history. The well behaved dynamical motion of the comet, the well observed past apparitions, the small nongravitational forces and the excellent 1988 ground based observing conditions all contribute to relatively small position and velocity errors in 1988 -- the year of a proposed rendezvous space mission to this comet. To assist in planned ground based and earth orbital observations of this comet, ephemerides are given for the 1978-79, 1983-84 and 1988 apparitions.

Yeomans, D. K.↗
DOE OSTI2020

A novel two-layer-integrated microfluidic device for high-throughput yeast proteomic dynamics analysis at the single-cell level

Abstract Current microfluidic methods for studying multicell strains (e.g., m-types) with multienvironments (e.g., n-types) require large numbers of inlets/outlets (m*n), a complicated procedure or expensive machinery. Here, we developed a novel two-layer-integrated method to combine different PDMS microchannel layers with different functions into one chip by a PDMS through-hole array, which improved the design of a PDMS-based microfluidic system. Using this method, we succeeded in converting 2 × m × n inlets/outlets into m + n inlets/outlets and reduced the time cost of loading processing (from m × n to m) of the device for studying multicell strains (e.g., m-types) in varied multitemporal environments (i.e., n-types). Using this device, the dynamic behavior of the cell-stress-response proteins was studied when the glucose concentration decreased from 2% to a series of lower concentrations. Our device could also be widely used in high-throughput studies of various stress responses, and the new concept of a multilayer-integrated fabrication method could greatly improve the design of PDMS-based microfluidic systems.

Chen, Kaiyue↗
NASA NTRS1991

A study of dynamic stall using real time interferometry

Dynamic stall over an oscillating airfoil in compressible flow was studied using a real-time interferometry technique. Instantaneous flow field data was obtained for various unsteady as well as steady flow conditions. Comparison of steady flow interferograms with those taken in unsteady flow reveal a significant delay in the development of leading edge suction peaks in the unsteady case. The interferograms permit detailed analysis of the leading edge pressure field; as many as 13 pressure values have been obtained around the leading edge in the first 1 percent of the airfoil chord. The results offer a significant new insight into the character of the dynamic stall vortex, and the stall delay that is observed during dynamic motions.

Carr, L. W.↗
NASA NTRS2010

An Analysis of the Environments of Intense Convective Systems in West Africa in 2003

We investigated the local- and regional-scale thermodynamical and dynamical environments associated with intense convective systems in West Africa during 2003. We identified convective system cases from TRMM microwave imagery, classifying each case by the system minimum 85-GHz brightness temperature and by the estimated elapsed time of propagation from high terrain. The speed of the mid-level jet, the magnitude of the low-level shear, and the surface equivalent potential temperature (theta(sub e)) were greater for the intense cases compared to the non-intense cases, although the differences between the means tended to be small, less than 3K for surface theta(sub e). Hypothesis testing of a series of commonly used intensity prediction metrics resulted in significant results only for low-level metrics such as convective available potential energy and not for any of the mid- or upper-level metrics such as 700-hPa theta(sub e). None of the environmental variables or intensity metrics by themselves or in combination appeared to be reliable direct predictors of intensity. In the regional scale analysis, the majority of intense convective systems occurred in the surface baroclinic zone where surface theta(sub e) exceeded 344 K and the 700-hPa zonal wind speeds were less than -6/ms. Fewer intense cases compared to non-intense cases were associated with African easterly wave troughs. Fewer than 25% of our cases occurred in environments with detectable Saharan dust loads, and the results for intense and non-intense cases were similar. Our results for the regional analysis were consistent with the seasonal movement of the WAM and the intertropical front, regional differences in topography, and AEW energetics.

Nicholls, Stephen D.↗
DOE OSTI2024

Null Raychaudhuri: canonical structure and the dressing time

Abstract We initiate a study of gravity focusing on generic null hypersurfaces, non-perturbatively in the Newton coupling. We present an off-shell account of the extended phase space of the theory, which includes the expected spin-2 data as well as spin-0, spin-1 and arbitrary matter degrees of freedom. We construct the charges and the corresponding kinematic Poisson brackets, employing a Beltrami parameterization of the spin-2 modes. We explicitly show that the constraint algebra closes, the details of which depend on the non-perturbative mixing between spin-0 and spin-2 modes. Finally we show that the spin zero sector encodes a notion of a clock, called dressing time, which is dynamical and conjugate to the constraint. It is well-known that the null Raychaudhuri equation describes how the geometric data of a null hypersurface evolve in null time in response to gravitational radiation and external matter. Our analysis leads to three complementary viewpoints on this equation. First, it can be understood as a Carrollian stress tensor conservation equation. Second, we construct spin-0, spin-2 and matter stress tensors that act as generators of null time reparametrizations for each sector. This leads to the perspective that the null Raychaudhuri equation can be understood as imposing that the sum of CFT-like stress tensors vanishes. Third, we solve the Raychaudhuri constraint non-perturbatively. The solution relates the dressing time to the spin-2 and matter boost charge operators. Finally we establish that the corner charge corresponding to the boost operator in the dressing time frame is monotonic. These results show that the notion of an observer can be thought of as emerging from the gravitational degrees of freedom themselves. We briefly mention that the construction offers new insights into focusing conjectures.

Physics↗