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At least 1,675 records · Page 93

STOCHASTIC OPTIMIZATION FOR LONG TERM CAPITAL STRUCTURES, SYSTEMS, AND COMPONENTS REFURBISHMENT AND REPLACEMENT

As commercial nuclear power plants (NPPs) pursue extended plant operations in the form of Second License Renewals (SLRs), opportunities exist for these plants to provide capital investments to ensure long-term, safe, and economic performance. Several utilities have already announced their intention to pursue extended operations for one or more of their NPPs via SLR2. The goal of this research is to develop a riskinformed approach to evaluate and prioritize plant capital investments made in preparation for, and during the period of, extended plant operations to support decisions in NPP operations. In order to prioritize project selection via a riskinformed approach we developed a single decision-making tool that integrates safety/reliability, cost, and stochastic optimization models to provide users with data analysis capabilities to more cost effectively manage plant assets. Both stochastic analysis methods—such as Monte Carlo-based sampling strategies—and multi-stage stochastic optimization strategies are employed to provide priority lists to decisionmakers in support of risk-informed decisions. We applied the proposed method to a trial application of projected replacement/refurbishment expenditures for plant capital assets (i.e., Structures, Systems, and Components [SSCs]). The objective is to optimize the SSC replacement/refurbishment schedule in terms of economic constraints, data uncertainties, and SSC reliability data, as well to generate a priority list for maximizing returns on investment.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Model Predictive Control-Based Dual-Mode Operation of an Energy-Stored Quasi-Z-Source Photovoltaic Power System

The energy-stored quasi-Z-source inverter (ES-qZSI) has attracted much attention for photovoltaic (PV) power generations, due to its capability to stabilize the PV power fluctuations with simple structure and other advantages of Z-source inverter. The improved dual-mode (DM) ES-qZSI is able to support all-weather operation even at night or cloudy days when PV power is extremely low. However, the traditional proportional–integral (PI) based control suffers from complicated controller design and poor dynamic response during mode transition, due to two sets of PI control required for the daytime and night operation modes. In order to overcome that, here in this article, we propose a model predictive control strategy for the DM-ES-qZSI PV power system. The system predictive models in both day and night operating modes are derived. The control strategy is disclosed to ensure high performance of the system, through calling the predictive models and defined cost functions of the two modes within a single control loop. Simulation and experiment are carried out to verify the effectiveness of the proposed control strategy.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Economics of liquid hydrogen from water electrolysis

An economical model for preliminary analysis of LH2 cost from water electrolysis is presented. The model is based on data from vendors and open literature, and is suitable for computer analysis of different scenarios for 'directional' purposes. Cost data associated with a production rate of 10,886 kg/day are presented. With minimum modification, the model can also be used to predict LH2 cost from any electrolyzer once the electrolyzer's cost data are available.

Lin, F. N.↗

Thalidomide induced early gene expression perturbations indicative of human embryopathy in mouse embryonic stem cells

Developmental toxicity testing has traditionally relied on animal models which are costly, time consuming, and require the sacrifice of large numbers of animals. In addition, there are significant disparities between human beings and animals in their responses to chemicals. Thalidomide is a species-specific developmental toxicant that causes severe limb malformations in humans but not in mice. Here, we used microarrays to study transcriptomic changes induced by thalidomide in an in vitro model based on differentiation of mouse embryonic stem cells (mESCs). C57BL/6 mESCs were allowed to differentiate spontaneously and RNA was collected at 24, 48, and 72 h after exposure to 0.25 mM thalidomide. Global gene expression analysis using microarrays revealed hundreds of differentially expressed genes upon thalidomide exposure that were enriched in gene ontology (GO) terms and canonical pathways associated with embryonic development and differentiation. In addition, many genes were found to be involved in small GTPases-mediated signal transduction, heart development, and inflammatory responses, which coincide with clinical evidences and may represent critical embryotoxicities of thalidomide. These results demonstrate that transcriptomics in combination with mouse embryonic stem cell differentiation is a promising alternative model for developmental toxicity assessment. - Highlights: • Studied genomic changes in mouse embryonic stem cells upon thalidomide exposure • Identified gene expression changes that may represent thalidomide embryotoxicity • The toxicogenomic changes coincide well with known thalidomide clinical outcomes. • The mouse embryonic stem cell model is suitable for developmental toxicity testing. • The model has the potential for high-throughput screening of a multitude of compounds.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Integrated Energy Planning with a High Share of Variable Renewable Energy Sources for a Caribbean Island

Although it can be complex to integrate variable renewable energy sources such as wind power and photovoltaics into an energy system, the potential benefits are large, as it can help reduce fuel imports, balance the trade, and mitigate the negative impacts in terms of climate change. In order to try to integrate a very large share of variable renewable energy sources into the energy system, an integrated energy planning approach was used, including ice storage in the cooling sector, a smart charging option in the transport sector, and an excess capacity of reverse osmosis technology that was utilised in order to provide flexibility to the energy system. A unit commitment and economic dispatch tool (PLEXOS) was used, and the model was run with both 5 min and 1 h time resolutions. The case study was carried out for a typical Caribbean island nation, based on data derived from measured data from Aruba. The results showed that 78.1% of the final electricity demand in 2020 was met by variable renewable energy sources, having 1.0% of curtailed energy in the energy system. The total economic cost of the modelled energy system was similar to the current energy system, dominated by the fossil fuel imports. Here, the results are relevant for many populated islands and island nations.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

XSEDE Value Added, Cost Avoidance, and Return on Investment

It is difficult for large research facilities to quantify a return on the investments that fund their operations. This is because there can be a time lag of years or decades between an innovation or discovery and the realization of its value through practical application. This report presents a three-part methodology that attempts to assess the value of federal investment in XSEDE: 1) a qualitative examination of the areas where XSEDE adds value to the activities of the open research community, 2) a thought model examining the cost avoidance realized by the National Science Foundation (NSF) through the centralization and coordination XSEDE provides, and 3) an assessment of the value XSEDE provides to Service Providers in the XD ecosystem. XSEDE adds significantly to the US research community because it functions as a unified interface to the XD ecosystem and because of its scale. A partly quantitative, partly qualitative analysis suggests the Return on Investment of NSF spending on XSEDE is greater than 1.0. indicating that the aggregate value received by the nation from XSEDE is greater than the cost of direct federal investment in XSEDE.

advanced cyberinfrastructure↗

Recommendations on ILC Project Implementation

The International Linear Collider (ILC) is a next-generation experimental facility to explore fundamental laws of the Universe. The importance of electron-positron linear colliders as a future experimental facility has been long recognized by the worldwide high energy physics community. A global design team, the Global Design Efforts (GDE), was set up under the International Committee for Future Accelerators (ICFA) for design and coordination of R&D activities of the ILC in 2005, and the ILC Technical Design Report (TDR) was completed in 2013. ICFA then established the Linear Collider Collaboration (LCC) and the Linear Collider Board (LCB) and has continued to support the worldwide efforts for realizing the ILC. Meanwhile, in 2012, KEK and the high energy physics community in Japan proposed that Japan should host the ILC, which was welcomed by the worldwide high energy physics community. Implementation of the ILC project will require strong involvements from international partners due to its scientific importance and large scale. Aspects of international cost sharing and governance of the organization carrying out the ILC project will need to be discussed and agreed at the governmental level. Therefore, KEK established an International Working Group (WG) on the ILC Project in May 2019, inviting scientific experts worldwide* , and asking them to study international aspects of the project implementation from viewpoints of researchers. They were requested to create a report on model of international cost sharing for construction and operation, organization and governance of the ILC Laboratory, and international sharing of the remaining technical preparation. The WG report was submitted to KEK on September 25, 2019. After reviewing the content of the report, KEK decided to make it available within this document entitled “Recommendations on ILC Project Implementation”. This document summarizes the deliberations from researchers’ viewpoints; it does not intend to pre-empt governments and funding agencies. It is hoped that it will be helpful for discussions among governments and funding agencies.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗

Additional Degree of Freedom for WEC Model

'Additional Degree of Freedom for WEC' - WEC-Sim numerical model from RFTS 1 TEAMER project. An increase in wave energy converter (WEC) efficiency requires not only consideration of the nonlinear effects in the WEC dynamics and the power take-off (PTO) mechanisms, but also more integrated treatment of the whole system, i.e., the buoy dynamics, the PTO system, and the control strategy. It results in an optimization formulation that has a nonquadratic and nonstandard cost functional. This model presents the application of real-time nonlinear model predictive controller (NMPC) to two degrees of freedom point absorber type WEC with highly nonlinear PTO characteristics. The nonlinear effects, such as the fluid viscous drag, are also included in the plant dynamics. The controller may be implemented on a real-time target machine, and the WEC device is emulated in real-time using the WECSIM toolbox. Please see the ‘ReadMe’ within the root directory for an explanation of how to set-up and run the model. An article covering the development of this model is attached as "Real-Time Nonlinear Model Predictive Controller for Multiple Degrees of Freedom Wave Energy Converters with Non-Ideal Power Take-Off"

16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗

Adaptive experimental design for multi-fidelity surrogate modeling of multi-disciplinary systems

We present an adaptive algorithm for constructing surrogate models of multi-disciplinary systems composed of a set of coupled components. With this goal we introduce “coupling” variables with a priori unknown distributions that allow surrogates of each component to be built independently. Once built, the surrogates of the components are combined to form an integrated-surrogate that can be used to predict system-level quantities of interest at a fraction of the cost of the original model. The error in the integrated-surrogate is greedily minimized using an experimental design procedure that allocates the amount of training data, used to construct each component-surrogate, based on the contribution of those surrogates to the error of the integrated-surrogate. Here, the multi-fidelity procedure presented is a generalization of multi-index stochastic collocation that can leverage ensembles of models of varying cost and accuracy, for one or more components, to reduce the computational cost of constructing the integrated-surrogate. Extensive numerical results demonstrate that, for a fixed computational budget, our algorithm is able to produce surrogates that are orders of magnitude more accurate than methods that treat the integrated system as a black-box.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Anharmonic modeling of the conformation-specific IR spectra of ethyl, n-propyl, and n-butylbenzene

In this paper, conformation-specific UV-IR double resonance spectra are presented for ethyl, n-propyl, and n-butylbenzene. With the aid of a local mode Hamiltonian that includes the effects of stretch-scissor Fermi resonance, the spectra can be accurately modeled for specific conformers. These molecules allow for further development of a first principles method for calculating alkyl stretch spectra. Across all chain lengths, certain dihedral patterns impart particular spectral motifs at the quadratic level. However, the anharmonic contributions are consistent from molecule to molecule and conformer to conformer. This transferability of anharmonicities allows for the Hamiltonian to be constructed from only a harmonic frequency calculation, reducing the cost of the model. Finally, the phenyl ring alters the frequencies of the CH 2 stretches by about 15 cm -1 compared to their n-alkane counterparts in trans configurations. Conformational changes in the chain can lead to shifts in frequency of up to 30 cm -1 .

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Modeling prebiotic chemistries with quantum accuracy at classical costs

Molecular Dynamics (MD) simulations using classical force-fields are commonly employed in numerous scientific investigations. However, many natural processes involve bond breaking and quantum forces. This complexity is compounded by the presence of multiple competing length and timescales. For example, accurately modeling the thermodynamics and dynamics of a chemical reaction requires accounting for the concerted movements of numerous solvent molecules and ions with their own fast or slow timescales. While widely used static Density Functional Theory (DFT) calculations at 0 temperature can be beneficial for such investigations, they do not account for dynamics, and lack precision in describing the molecular environments. They particularly fail at correct, rigorous treatments of finite-temperature fluctuations, and thus generalization to experimentally relevant conditions. In PNAS Benayad et al develop a scalable, generalizable approach for designing Neural Network Potentials (NNPs) that can handle chemical reactivity in solvated systems with quantum accuracy at classical costs. Specifically, they study phosphoester bond formation and rupture, which is fundamentally relevant to the Phosphorus-Oxygen bond formation central to life, and especially for the RNA world hypothesis. The framework developed here has the potential to generalize to different chemical reactions of energy and biological relevance.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

CoMET: Cost and Mass Evaluation Tool for Spacecraft and Mission Design

New technology in space exploration is often developed without a complete knowledge of its impact. While the immediate benefits of a new technology are obvious, it is harder to understand its indirect consequences, which ripple through the entire system. COMET is a technology evaluation tool designed to illuminate how specific technology choices affect a mission at each system level. COMET uses simplified models for mass, power, and cost to analyze performance parameters of technologies of interest. The sensitivity analysis that CoMET provides shows whether developing a certain technology will greatly benefit the project or not. CoMET is an ongoing project approaching a web-based implementation phase. This year, development focused on the models for planetary daughter craft, such as atmospheric probes, blimps and balloons, and landers. These models are developed through research into historical data, well established rules of thumb, and engineering judgment of experts at JPL. The model is validated by corroboration with JpL advanced mission studies. Other enhancements to COMET include adding launch vehicle analysis and integrating an updated cost model. When completed, COMET will allow technological development to be focused on areas that will most drastically improve spacecraft performance.

Bieber, Ben S.↗

100 MW e Baseload Molten Salt Plant Phase 1 & 2 Summary Report: Summary of Conceptual Design, Preliminary Design, Commercialization and Risk Reduction Activities

This document describes steps taken to develop our conceptual and preliminary designs of a modular concept for deploying a 75% capacity factor, 100-MW e solar power plant. The modular approach consists of 14 solar power towers interconnected by hot and cold salt piping leading back to a central power block where the salt storage tanks and power generation systems are located. The plant is described in several sections. First, the overall plant is described, including the general arrangement, process and heat flow diagrams, system interface definitions, and electrical description. Next, each system is described in detail following the flow of energy from incident sunlight, through the plant, to the grid. These systems include the solar collector system (SCS), solar receiver system (SRS), thermal storage system (TSS), steam generator system (SGS), and power generation system (PGS). Then, the plant control system (PCS) and balance of plant (BOP) are discussed as supporting entities. Each system of the plant is described in sufficient detail to allow for the following to be developed: material cost, erection cost, project schedule, EPC bids, detailed performance modeling, and operations and maintenance cost. Cost, schedule, and performance estimates are not described in this document. Two approaches to demonstration of the technology are presented: a single tower integrated into an existing power block and a four tower stand alone 50 MW e power plant. Various demonstration partners have expressed interested in both approaches. The process by which a detailed plant performance model was developed is described to support the development of accurate LCOE data. Information on material and instrument testing is also provided for critical materials and instruments required for molten salt service.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

A simplified CFD model for spectral radiative heat transfer in high-pressure hydrocarbon–air combustion systems

Detailed radiation modeling in piston engines has received relatively little attention to date. Recently, it is being revisited in light of current trends towards higher operating pressures and higher levels of exhaust-gas recirculation (EGR), both of which enhance molecular gas radiation. Advanced high-efficiency engines also are expected to function closer to the limits of stable operation, where even small perturbations to the energy balance can have a large influence on system behavior. Detailed radiation modeling using sophisticated tools like photon Monte Carlo/line-by-line (PMC/LBL) is computationally expensive. Here, guided by results from PMC/LBL, a simplified stepwise-gray spectral model in combination with a first-order spherical harmonics (P1 method) radiative transfer equation (RTE) solver is proposed and tested for engine-relevant conditions. Radiative emission, reabsorption and radiation reaching the walls are computed for a heavy-duty compression-ignition engine at part-load and full-load operating conditions with different levels of EGR and soot. The results are compared with those from PMC/LBL, P1/FSK (P1 with a full-spectrum k-distribution spectral model) and P1/Gray radiation models to assess the proposed model’s accuracy and computational cost. The results show that the proposed P1/StepwiseGray model can calculate reabsorption locally and globally with less than 10% error (with respect to PMC/LBL) at a small fraction of the computational cost of PMC/LBL (a factor of 30) and P1/FSK (a factor of 15). In contrast, error in computed reabsorption by the P1/Gray model is as high as 60%. Finally, it is expected that the simplified model should be broadly applicable to high-pressure hydrocarbon–air combustion systems, with or without soot.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Representing Carbon Dioxide Transport and Storage Network Investments within Power System Planning Models

Carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) capture and storage (CCS) is frequently identified as a potential component to achieving a decarbonized power system at least cost; however, power system models frequently lack detailed representation of CO 2 transportation, injection, and storage (CTS) infrastructure. In this paper, we present a novel approach to explicitly represent CO 2 storage potential and CTS infrastructure costs and constraints within a continental-scale power system capacity expansion model. In addition, we evaluate the sensitivity of the results to assumptions about the future costs and performance of CTS components and carbon capture technologies. We find that the quantity of CO 2 captured within the power sector is relatively insensitive to the range of CTS costs explored, suggesting that the cost of CO 2 capture retrofits is a more important driver of CCS implementation than the costs of transportation and storage. Finally, we demonstrate that storage and injection costs account for the predominant share of total costs associated with CTS investment and operation, suggesting that pipeline infrastructure costs have limited influence on the competitiveness of CCS.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Exploiting symmetries in the modeling and analysis of tires

A simple and efficient computational strategy for reducing both the size of a tire model and the cost of the analysis of tires in the presence of symmetry-breaking conditions (unsymmetry in the tire material, geometry, or loading) is presented. The strategy is based on approximating the unsymmetric response of the tire with a linear combination of symmetric and antisymmetric global approximation vectors (or modes). Details are presented for the three main elements of the computational strategy, which include: use of special three-field mixed finite-element models, use of operator splitting, and substantial reduction in the number of degrees of freedom. The proposed computational stategy is applied to three quasi-symmetric problems of tires: linear analysis of anisotropic tires, through use of semianalytic finite elements, nonlinear analysis of anisotropic tires through use of two-dimensional shell finite elements, and nonlinear analysis of orthotropic tires subjected to unsymmetric loading. Three basic types of symmetry (and their combinations) exhibited by the tire response are identified.

Noor, Ahmed K.↗

Generalized Multiscale Finite-Element Method (GMsFEM) for elastic wave propagation in heterogeneous, anisotropic media

It is important to develop fast yet accurate numerical methods for seismic wave propagation to characterize complex geological structures and oil and gas reservoirs. However, the computational cost of conventional numerical modeling methods, such as finite-difference method and finite-element method, becomes prohibitively expensive when applied to very large models. We propose a Generalized Multiscale Finite-Element Method (GMsFEM) for elastic wave propagation in heterogeneous, anisotropic media, where we construct basis functions from multiple local problems for both the boundaries and interior of a coarse node support or coarse element. The application of multiscale basis functions can capture the fine scale medium property variations, and allows us to greatly reduce the degrees of freedom that are required to implement the modeling compared with conventional finite-element method for wave equation, while restricting the error to low values. We formulate the continuous Galerkin and discontinuous Galerkin formulation of the multiscale method, both of which have pros and cons. Applications of the multiscale method to three heterogeneous models show that our multiscale method can effectively model the elastic wave propagation in anisotropic media with a significant reduction in the degrees of freedom in the modeling system.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

A deformation-dependent coupled Lagrangian/semi-Lagrangian meshfree hydromechanical formulation for landslide modeling

Abstract The numerical modelling of natural disasters such as landslides presents several challenges for conventional mesh-based methods such as the finite element method (FEM) due to the presence of numerically challenging phenomena such as severe material deformation and fragmentation. In contrast, meshfree methods such as the reproducing kernel particle method (RKPM) possess unique features conducive to modelling extreme events such as the absence of a structured mesh and the ease of adaptive refinement, among others. While the semi-Lagrangian reproducing kernel (SL-RK) shape functions of RKPM defined in the current configuration have proven to be effective in extreme event modelling, the computational cost for the re-evaluation of the shape functions at every time step is costly. In this work, a deformation-dependent coupling of the Lagrangian reproducing kernel (L-RK) and SL-RK approximations is proposed for the solution of a hydro-mechanical formulation for effective simulations of landslides. The ramp function is constructed based on an equivalent plastic strain as a deformation-dependent transition from L-RK shape functions to SL-RK ones as the deformation progresses. The particular focus of the paper will be on modelling seepage-induced landslides with a mixed $$u$$ u – $$p$$ p formulation to couple the solid and fluid phases. Examples are presented to examine the effectiveness of this coupled Lagrangian/semi-Lagrangian reproducing kernel (L–SL RK) formulation and to highlight its performance in landslide modelling.

Baek, Jonghyuk↗