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NASA NTRS1990

Total-sky and clear-sky variability of outgoing longwave radiation and shortwave radiation and its relation to cloud fluctuation statistics

Correlation statistics are used to investigate some of the characteristic temporal and spatial scales of the day-to-day changes in cloudiness which tend to dominate the variance of outgoing LW radiation and SW radiation fields. The temporal decorrelation time of the radiation field as measured by the lag time required for the autocorrelation of a region to fall to 0.4 is about 12 hours in the midlatitude storm track. Decorrelation time approaches one to two days when the averaging area of the region is increased significantly. Decorrelation times are also longer in the equatorial and tropical regions. The short decorrelation times are a manifestation of the creation, breakup, and movement of cloud systems. Cross-correlation analysis of the radiation field in the midlatitude storm track region and the subtropical dry zone shows advection speeds that range from about 25 m/sec in the storm tracks to about 8 m/sec in the subtropical dry zone.

Bess, T. D.↗

DOE OSTI2015

Source mechanism analysis of central Aceh earthquake July 2, 2013 Mw 6.2 using moment tensor inversion with BMKG waveform data

The source mechanism of earthquake on July 2, 2013 was investigated by using moment tensor inversion. The result also compared by the field observation. Five waveform data of BMKG’s seismic network used to estimate the mechanism of earthquake, namely ; KCSI, MLSI, LASI, TPTI and SNSI. Main shock data taken during 200 seconds and filtered by using Butterworth band pass method from 0.03 to 0.05 Hz of frequency. Moment tensor inversion method is applied based on the point source assumption. Furthermore, the Green function calculated using the extended reflectivity method which modified by Kohketsu. The inversion result showed a strike-slip faulting, where the nodal plane strike/dip/rake (124/80.6/152.8) and minimum variance value 0.3285 at a depth of 6 km (centroid). It categorized as a shallow earthquake. Field observation indicated that the building orientated to the east. It can be related to the southwest of dip direction which has 152 degrees of slip. As conclusion, the Pressure (P) and Tension (T) axis described dominant compression is happen from the south which is caused by pressure of the Indo-Australian plate.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2026

Scalability Analysis of Quantum Models for Stress and Emotion Detection

Stress and emotion detection from high-dimensional physiological signals is a challenging task, particularly when aiming for accurate classification across diverse behavioral states. Quantum machine learning (QML) is promising for modeling such high-dimensional data, but scalability is limited by qubit resources and the exponential cost of classical statevector simulation. This work studies the scalability of quantum support vector machines (QSVMs) for binary stress detection and three-class emotion recognition (Negative/Neutral/Positive) under varying qubit counts and angle-encoding strategies. We also present a comparison study with one-feature-per-qubit (1:1) and two-features-per-qubit (2:1) mappings. Experiments are executed on HPC infrastructure using NVIDIA CUDA-Q to evaluate performance, variance, and class-dependent separability at higher-qubit setups. Results show that larger Hilbert spaces can improve peak accuracy but may increase instability. At the same time, dense 2:1 encoding yields more consistent stress detection performance. For emotion recognition, scaling improves discrimination for classes like Negative and Positive more than Neutral. We find that effective QML scaling is task-dependent and benefits more from encoding design than simply increasing qubit count.

Onim, Md. Saif Hassan [University of Tennessee, Kn↗

DOE OSTI2021

Planck constraints on the tensor-to-scalar ratio

In this work, we present constraints on the tensor-to-scalar ratio r using Planck data. We use the latest release of Planck maps (PR4), processed with the NPIPE code, which produces calibrated frequency maps in temperature and polarization for all Planck channels from 30 GHz to 857 GHz using the same pipeline. We computed constraints on r using the BB angular power spectrum, and we also discuss constraints coming from the TT spectrum. Given Planck's noise level, the TT spectrum gives constraints on r that are cosmic-variance limited (with $\sigma$ r = 0.093), but we show that the marginalized posterior peaks towards negative values of r at about the 1.2$\sigma$ level. We derived Planck constraints using the BB power spectrum at both large angular scales (the 'reionization bump') and intermediate angular scales (the 'recombination bump') from $\ell$=2 to 150, and find a stronger constraint than that from TT, with $\sigma$ r = 0.069. The Planck BB spectrum shows no systematic bias, and is compatible with zero, given both the statistical noise and the systematic uncertainties. The likelihood analysis using B modes yields the constraint r < 0.158 at 95% confidence using more than 50% of the sky. This upper limit tightens to r < 0.069 when Planck EE, BB, and EB power spectra are combined consistently, and it tightens further to r < 0.056 when the Planck TT power spectrum is included in the combination. Finally, combining Planck with BICEP2/Keck 2015 data yields an upper limit of r < 0.044.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2013

Hierarchical Cluster Analysis of Service Usage and Geographic Variation in Medicare Spending

Per capita Medicare spending varies considerably throughout the Unites States, even after taking into account factors such as cost of living and pre-existing conditions of the Medicare populations. Additionally, per capita spending may vary up to four times as much under Medicare as it does under private insurance. Several studies have explored the Medicare-costs differences between regions with respect to how Medicare services are used. The recent public release of a large, relatively fine-grained set of Medicare data over four annual periods (2007–2010) by the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS), allowed us to perform a broad-scale exploratory analysis of Medicare service-usage patterns. The CMS data set contains data on the Health Care Referral Region level, which subsets the United States into 306 distinct regions. To identify potential trends in service usage over these regions, we used hierarchical agglomerative cluster analysis (HACA) to group regions into clusters based on similarity of service-usage patterns. Much previous work on the subject of cost variation starts with analysis of cost. By beginning with service-usage data, HACA effectively uncoupled patterns of service-usage from overall patterns of cost. We found that while some Medicare services were used in a fairly consistent manner over all clusters, other services varied considerably. Variation in how frequently services are used may provide insight into practices that are particularly expensive or particularly cost effective. It also may be possible to develop recommendations for more cost-efficient high-quality medical care by taking such information into account. In addition, the variance among the frequencies with which some services are used may point to inconsistent standards of medical practice that are not necessarily directly reflected in total cost, or to more deeply underlying geographic or demographic factors that are not necessarily reflected directly in total cost.

Vacha, Linnet↗

DOE OSTI2016

Maps of the Magellanic clouds from combined South Pole Telescope and Planck data

Here, we present maps of the Large and Small Magellanic Clouds from combined South Pole Telescope (SPT) and Planck data. Both instruments are designed to make measurements of the cosmic microwave background but are sensitive to any source of millimeter-wave (mm-wave) emission. The Planck satellite observes in nine mm-wave bands, while the SPT data used in this work were taken with the three-band SPT-SZ camera. The SPT-SZ bands correspond closely to three of the nine Planck bands, namely those centered at 1.4, 2.1, and 3.0 mm. The angular resolution of the Planck data in these bands ranges from 5 to 10 arcmin, while the SPT resolution in these bands ranges from 1.0 to 1.7 arcmin. The combined maps take advantage of the high resolution of the SPT data and the long-timescale stability of the space-based Planck observations to deliver high signal-to-noise and robust brightness measurements on scales from the size of the maps down to ~1 arcmin. In each of the three bands, we first calibrate and color-correct the SPT data to match the Planck data, then we use noise estimates from each instrument and knowledge of each instrument's beam, or point-spread function, to make the inverse-variance-weighted combination of the two instruments' data as a function of angular scale. Furthermore, we create maps assuming a range of underlying emission spectra (for the color correction) and at a range of final resolutions. We perform several consistency tests on the combined maps and estimate the expected noise in measurements of features in the maps. Finally, we compare the maps of the Large Magellanic Cloud (LMC) from this work to maps from the Herschel HERITAGE survey, finding general consistency between the datasets. Furthermore, the broad wavelength coverage provides evidence of different emission mechanisms at work in different environments in the LMC.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2018

A Comparison of Maps and Power Spectra Determined from South Pole Telescope and Planck Data

We study the consistency of 150 GHz data from the South Pole Telescope (SPT) and 143 GHz data from the \textit{Planck} satellite over the 2540 $\text{deg}^2$ patch of sky covered by the SPT-SZ survey. We first visually compare the maps and find that the map residuals appear consistent with noise after we account for differences in angular resolution and filtering. To make a more quantitative comparison, we calculate (1) the cross-spectrum between two independent halves of SPT 150 GHz data, (2) the cross-spectrum between two independent halves of \textit{Planck} 143 GHz data, and (3) the cross-spectrum between SPT 150 GHz and \textit{Planck} 143 GHz data. We find the three cross-spectra are well-fit (PTE = 0.30) by the null hypothesis in which both experiments have measured the same sky map up to a single free parameter characterizing the relative calibration between the two. As a by-product of this analysis, we improve the calibration of SPT data by nearly an order of magnitude, from 2.6\% to 0.3\% in power; the best-fit power calibration factor relative to the most recent published SPT calibration is $1.0174 \pm 0.0033$. Finally, we compare all three cross-spectra to the full-sky \textit{Planck} $143 \times 143$ power spectrum and find a hint ($\sim$1.5$\sigma$) for differences in the power spectrum of the SPT-SZ footprint and the full-sky power spectrum, which we model and fit as a power law in the spectrum. The best-fit value of this tilt is consistent between the three cross-spectra in the SPT-SZ footprint, implying that the source of this tilt---assuming it is real---is a sample variance fluctuation in the SPT-SZ region relative to the full sky. Despite the precision of our tests, we find no evidence for systematic errors in either data set. The consistency of cosmological parameters derived from these datasets is discussed in a companion paper.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2014

Identification of high shears and compressive discontinuities in the inner heliosphere

Two techniques, the Partial Variance of Increments (PVI) and the Local Intermittency Measure (LIM), have been applied and compared using MESSENGER magnetic field data in the solar wind at a heliocentric distance of about 0.3 AU. The spatial properties of the turbulent field at different scales, spanning the whole inertial range of magnetic turbulence down toward the proton scales have been studied. LIM and PVI methodologies allow us to identify portions of an entire time series where magnetic energy is mostly accumulated, and regions of intermittent bursts in the magnetic field vector increments, respectively. A statistical analysis has revealed that at small time scales and for high level of the threshold, the bursts present in the PVI and the LIM series correspond to regions of high shear stress and high magnetic field compressibility.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2015

SU-E-T-372: Evaluation and Comparison of Second-Check Monitor Unit Calculation Software with Pinnacle Treatment Planning System

Purpose: The purpose of this study was to evaluate and compare the accuracy of dose calculation algorithms in the second check software programs Radcalc, Diamond, IMSure, and MUcheck, against the Pinnacle3 treatment planning system (TPS). Methods: Baseline accuracy of the second check software was established by comparison against Pinnacle TPS data using open square fields of 5, 10, 20, 30 and 40cm in a SAD setup. 18 previously treated patients’ files were exported from the Pinnacle3 TPS to each of the four second check softwares, consisting of 146 step and shoot intensity modulated radiotherapy (IMRT) beams and 60 Smart Arcs. Monitor unit (MU) calculated in each of the software were compared with the TPS and the values were represented as a percent difference. Open fields were calculated as a baseline for each software’s accuracy using 5×5, 10×10, 20×20, 30×30, and 40×40 fields. Box plots, Pearson correlation, and Bland-Altman analysis were used for comparison of the results. Results: The baseline accuracy was established to within 0.6%, −1.4%, −0.2%, and −1.0% for Diamond, IMSure,MUcheck, and Radcalc, respectively. In the clinical data, the dose difference represented as mean ± 1 standard deviation were 0.7%±0.1%, −0.3%±0.1%, −1.5%±0.1%, and 0.4%±0.0% for Diamond, IMSure, MUcheck, and Radcalc, respectively Conclusion: The implementation of Clarkson algorithm for the dose calculation between each of the software in question can vary considerably. The currently used second check software, Radcalc has shown the best agreement on average, variance, and smallest percent range from Pinnacle3 TPS values. The closest in average percent difference from the TPS data was the IMSure software, but has significantly larger variance and percent range. The mean percent differences in Diamond and MUcheck were significantly larger than Radcalc and IMSure.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS2012

A l% and 1cm Perspective Leads to a Novel CDOM Absorption Algorithm

A next-generation in-water profiler designed to measure the apparent optical properties of seawater was developed and validated across a wide dynamic range of water properties. This new Compact-Optical Profiling System (C-OPS) design uses a novel, kite-shaped, free-falling backplane with adjustable buoyancy and is based on 19 state-of-the-art microradiometers, spanning 320-780 nm. Data collected as part of the field commissioning were of a previously unachievable quality and showed that systematic uncertainties in the sampling protocols were discernible at the 1% optical and 1cm depth resolution levels. A sensitivity analysis as a function of three water types, established by the peak in the remote sensing reflectance spectra, revealed which water types and spectral domains were the most indicative of data acquisition uncertainties. The unprecedented vertical resolution of C-OPS measurements provided near-surface data products at the spectral endpoints with a quality level that has not been obtainable. The improved data allowed development of an algorithm for predicting the spectral absorption due to chromophoric dissolved organic matter (CDOM) using ratios of diffuse attenuation coefficients with over 99% of the variance in the data explained.

Morrow, J. H.↗

DOE OSTI2025

Exploring Afro-Asian water fluxes in CMIP5 and CMIP6 models: Present-day evaluation and future projections

Accurate representation and projection of water fluxes are vital, particularly in monsoon regions where seasonal variability and changes significantly impact water resources, agriculture, hydroelectric power generation, and the economy. This study uses both CMIP5 and CMIP6 models to investigate the present-day representation of key water flux components (including precipitation, evaporation, water vapor, and moisture advection) over the Afro-Asian region during the summer monsoon (JJAS). We also examine future changes under two emission scenarios and assess the underlying physical mechanisms driving these changes while identifying sources of projection uncertainty. Our results show that both models reasonably capture the present-day characteristics of water flux components, although with noticeable biases. Across most regions, we find that CMIP6 models demonstrate slight improvements over CMIP5 in the representation of these components. In a warmer future, a robust intensification of JJAS precipitation (exceeding 0.25 mm/day) is projected across the Afro-Asian region. This increase is largely driven by the vertical thermodynamic term associated with increasing temperature. We find that model uncertainty is the primary source of uncertainty in water flux projections, accounting for over 50 % of the total variance.

Climate change↗

DOE OSTI2023

Measurement of the CMB temperature power spectrum and constraints on cosmology from the SPT-3G 2018 T T , T E , and E E dataset

We present a sample-variance-limited measurement of the temperature power spectrum ( T T ) of the cosmic microwave background using observations of a ∼ 1500 deg 2 field made by the SPT-3G in 2018. We report multifrequency power spectrum measurements at 95, 150, and 220 GHz covering the angular multipole range 750 ≤ ℓ < 3000 . We combine this T T measurement with the published polarization power spectrum measurements from the 2018 observing season and update their associated covariance matrix to complete the SPT-3G 2018 T T / T E / E E dataset. This is the first analysis to present cosmological constraints from SPT T T , T E , and E E power spectrum measurements jointly. We blind the cosmological results and subject the dataset to a series of consistency tests at the power spectrum and parameter level. We find excellent agreement between frequencies and spectrum types and our results are robust to the modeling of astrophysical foregrounds. We report results for Λ CDM and a series of extensions, drawing on the following parameters: the amplitude of the gravitational lensing effect on primary power spectra A L , the effective number of neutrino species N eff , the primordial helium abundance Y P , and the baryon clumping factor due to primordial magnetic fields b . We find that the SPT-3G 2018 T T / T E / E E data are well fit by Λ CDM with a probability to exceed of 15%. For Λ CDM , we constrain the expansion rate today to H 0 = 68.3 ± 1.5 km s - 1 Mpc - 1 and the combined structure growth parameter to S 8 = 0.797 ± 0.042 . The SPT-based results are effectively independent of Planck, and the cosmological parameter constraints from either dataset are within < 1 σ of each other. The addition of temperature data to the SPT-3G T E / E E power spectra improves constraints by 8–27% for each of the Λ CDM cosmological parameters. When additionally fitting A L , N eff , or N eff + Y P , the posteriors of these parameters tighten by 5–24%. In the case of primordial magnetic fields, complete T T / T E / E E power spectrum measurements are necessary to break the degeneracy between b and n s , the spectral index of primordial density perturbations. We report a 95% confidence upper limit from SPT-3G data of b < 1.0 . The cosmological constraints in this work are the tightest from SPT primary power spectrum measurements to date and the analysis forms a new framework for future SPT analyses.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2019

A Comprehensive Methodology to Evaluate Losses and Process Variations in Silicon Solar Cell Manufacturing

Novel, high-throughput metrology methods are used in this paper for detailed performance loss analysis of approximately 400 industrial crystalline silicon solar cells, all coming from the same production line. The characterization sequence combines traditional global cell measurements (e.g., current-voltage, Suns-VOC) with camera-based cell imaging of voltage distribution and power dissipation from photoluminescence and lock-in thermography, respectively. Spatial variations in current collection are visualized using a high-speed external quantum efficiency and reflectance measurement technique. A nondestructive transfer length method (TLM) measurement technique is also implemented, featuring circular TLM structures hidden within the busbars of the cells. The variance of individual loss parameters and their impact on cell performance are quantified for this large group of cells. Based on correlations performed across parameters, recombination losses in the bulk and rear surface of the cell are shown to be the primary limiting factor for the cell efficiency. The nature of these distributions and correlations provide important insights about loss mechanisms in industrial solar cells, helping to prioritize efforts for optimizing the performance of the production line. Additionally, many of the parameters extracted from these techniques can be tied back to incoming material quality issues (e.g., poor bulk carrier lifetime, nonuniform wafer doping) and to individual unit processes (e.g., texturing, phosphorus diffusion, silicon nitride deposition, metallization), allowing the data to be used directly for process control in manufacturing. All of the datasets are made available for download.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2017

How to COAAD Images. II. A Coaddition Image that is Optimal for Any Purpose in the Background-dominated Noise Limit

Image coaddition is one of the most basic operations that astronomers perform. In Paper I, we presented the optimal ways to coadd images in order to detect faint sources and to perform flux measurements under the assumption that the noise is approximately Gaussian. Here, we build on these results and derive from first principles a coaddition technique that is optimal for any hypothesis testing and measurement (e.g., source detection, flux or shape measurements, and star/galaxy separation), in the background-noise-dominated case. This method has several important properties. The pixels of the resulting coadded image are uncorrelated. This image preserves all the information (from the original individual images) on all spatial frequencies. Any hypothesis testing or measurement that can be done on all the individual images simultaneously, can be done on the coadded image without any loss of information. The PSF of this image is typically as narrow, or narrower than the PSF of the best image in the ensemble. Moreover, this image is practically indistinguishable from a regular single image, meaning that any code that measures any property on a regular astronomical image can be applied to it unchanged. In particular, the optimal source detection statistic derived in Paper I is reproduced by matched filtering this image with its own PSF. This coaddition process, which we call proper coaddition, can be understood as the maximum signal-to-noise ratio measurement of the Fourier transform of the image, weighted in such a way that the noise in the entire Fourier domain is of equal variance. This method has important implications for multi-epoch seeing-limited deep surveys, weak lensing galaxy shape measurements, and diffraction-limited imaging via speckle observations. The last topic will be covered in depth in future papers. We provide an implementation of this algorithm in MATLAB.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

NASA NTRS1982

Crop classification using airborne radar and Landsat data

NASA 13.3 GHz airborne radar data from a soil moisture measurement analysis is used to investigate the statistical nature of the radar backscattering coefficient for bare ground and three different crop types, and to evaluate the crop classification rates using Landsat data alone or combined with the airborne survey. The scatterometer was a fan-beam Doppler system, VV polarized, and is considered only for 50 deg angles of incidence. A total of 36 fields were covered a week apart by the aircraft and Landsat, and Rayleigh statistics were used in the frequency averaging to eliminate fluctuations due to random fluctuations. Within-field variances were calculated for the Landsat and the radar data and used to design optimum crop classification procedures. The Landsat Band 4 readings were 67% accurate, and an increase in accuracy of 10% was achieved by the addition of the radar data.

Ulaby, F. T.↗

NASA NTRS1982

Radar image processing for rock-type discrimination

Image processing and enhancement techniques for improving the geologic utility of digital satellite radar images are reviewed. Preprocessing techniques such as mean and variance correction on a range or azimuth line by line basis to provide uniformly illuminated swaths, median value filtering for four-look imagery to eliminate speckle, and geometric rectification using a priori elevation data. Examples are presented of application of preprocessing methods to Seasat and Landsat data, and Seasat SAR imagery was coregistered with Landsat imagery to form composite scenes. A polynomial was developed to distort the radar picture to fit the Landsat image of a 90 x 90 km sq grid, using Landsat color ratios with Seasat intensities. Subsequent linear discrimination analysis was employed to discriminate rock types from known areas. Seasat additions to the Landsat data improved rock identification by 7%.

Blom, R. G.↗

NASA NTRS1991

Modification of a Successive Corrections Objective Analysis for Improved Derivative Calculations

The use of objectively analyzed fields of meteorological data for complex diagnostic studies and for the initialization of numerical prediction models places the requirements upon the objective method that derivatives of the gridded fields be accurate and free from interpolation error. A modification of an objective analysis developed by Barnes provides improvements in analyses of both the field and its derivatives. Theoretical comparisons, comparisons between analyses of analytical monochromatic waves, and comparisons between analyses of actual weather data are used to show the potential of the new method. The new method restores more of the amplitudes of desired wavelengths while simultaneously filtering more of the amplitudes of undesired wavelengths. These results also hold for the first and second derivatives calculated from the gridded fields. Greatest improvements were for the Laplacian of the height field; the new method reduced the variance of undesirable very short wavelengths by 72 pct. Other improvements were found in the divergence of the gridded wind field and near the boundaries of the field data.

Achtemeier, Gary L.↗

NASA NTRS2000

The Impact of ENSO on Extratropical Low Frequency Noise in Seasonal Forecasts

This study examines the uncertainty in forecasts of the January-February-March (JFM) mean extratropical circulation, and how that uncertainty is modulated by the El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The analysis is based on ensembles of hindcasts made with an Atmospheric General Circulation Model (AGCM) forced with sea surface temperatures observed during; the 1983 El Nino and 1989 La Nina events. The AGCM produces pronounced interannual differences in the magnitude of the extratropical seasonal mean noise (intra-ensemble variability). The North Pacific, in particular, shows extensive regions where the 1989 seasonal mean noise kinetic energy (SKE), which is dominated by a "PNA-like" spatial structure, is more than twice that of the 1983 forecasts. The larger SKE in 1989 is associated with a larger than normal barotropic conversion of kinetic energy from the mean Pacific jet to the seasonal mean noise. The generation of SKE due to sub-monthly transients also shows substantial interannual differences, though these are much smaller than the differences in the mean flow conversions. An analysis of the Generation of monthly mean noise kinetic energy (NIKE) and its variability suggests that the seasonal mean noise is predominantly a statistical residue of variability resulting from dynamical processes operating on monthly and shorter times scales. A stochastically-forced barotropic model (linearized about the AGCM's 1983 and 1989 base states) is used to further assess the role of the basic state, submonthly transients, and tropical forcing, in modulating the uncertainties in the seasonal AGCM forecasts. When forced globally with spatially-white noise, the linear model generates much larger variance for the 1989 base state, consistent with the AGCM results. The extratropical variability for the 1989 base state is dominanted by a single eigenmode, and is strongly coupled with forcing over tropical western Pacific and the Indian Ocean, again consistent with the AGCM results. Linear calculations that include forcing from the AGCM variance of the tropical forcing and submonthly transients show a small impact on the variability over the Pacific/North American region compared with that of the base state differences.

Schubert, Siegfried D.↗