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At least 1,675 records · Page 93

Causes and Implications of Extreme Atmospheric Moisture Demand during the Record-Breaking 2011 Wildfire Season in the Southwestern United States

In 2011, exceptionally low atmospheric moisture content combined with moderately high temperatures to produce a record-high vapor pressure deficit (VPD) in the southwestern United States (SW). These conditions combined with record-low cold-season precipitation to cause widespread drought and extreme wildfires. Although interannual VPD variability is generally dominated by temperature, high VPD in 2011 was also driven by a lack of atmospheric moisture. The May–July 2011 dewpoint in the SW was 4.5 standard deviations below the long-term mean. Lack of atmospheric moisture was promoted by already very dry soils and amplified by a strong ocean-to-continent sea level pressure gradient and upper-level convergence that drove dry northerly winds and subsidence upwind of and over the SW. Subsidence drove divergence of rapid and dry surface winds over the SW, suppressing southerly moisture imports and removing moisture from already dry soils. Model projections developed for the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) suggest that by the 2050s warming trends will cause mean warm-season VPD to be comparable to the record-high VPD observed in 2011. CMIP5 projections also suggest increased interannual variability of VPD, independent of trends in background mean levels, as a result of increased variability of dewpoint, temperature, vapor pressure, and saturation vapor pressure. Increased variability in VPD translates to increased probability of 2011-type VPD anomalies, which would be superimposed on ever-greater background VPD levels. Although temperature will continue to be the primary driver of interannual VPD variability, 2011 served as an important reminder that atmospheric moisture content can also drive impactful VPD anomalies.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Quantifying the Accuracy and Uncertainty of Diurnal Thermodynamic Profiles and Convection Indices Derived from the Atmospheric Emitted Radiance Interferometer

Abstract While radiosondes have provided atmospheric scientists an accurate high-vertical-resolution profile of the troposphere for decades, they are unable to provide high-temporal-resolution observations without significant recurring expenses. Remote sensing technology, however, has the ability to monitor the evolution of the atmosphere in unprecedented detail. One particularly promising tool is the Atmospheric Emitted Radiance Interferometer (AERI), a passive ground-based infrared radiometer. Through a physical retrieval, the AERI can retrieve the vertical profile of temperature and humidity at a temporal resolution on the order of minutes. The synthesis of these two instruments may provide an improved diagnosis of the processes occurring in the atmosphere. This study provides a better understanding of the capabilities of the AERI in environments supportive of deep, moist convection. Using 3-hourly radiosonde launches and thermodynamic profiles retrieved from collocated AERIs, this study evaluates the accuracy of AERI-derived profiles over the diurnal cycle by analyzing AERI profiles in both the convective and stable boundary layers. Monte Carlo sampling is used to calculate the distribution of convection indices and compare the impact of measurement errors from each instrument platform on indices. This study indicates that the nonintegrated indices (e.g., lifted index) derived from AERI retrievals are more accurate than integrated indices (e.g., CAPE). While the AERI retrieval’s vertical resolution can inhibit precise diagnoses of capping inversions, the high-temporal-resolution nature of the AERI profiles overall helps in detecting rapid temporal changes in stability.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

The Role of Back Pressure in the Atmospheric Response to Surface Stress Induced by the Kuroshio

Abstract The effect of ocean current drag on the atmosphere is of interest as a test case for the role of back pressure, because the response is independent of the thermally induced modulation of the boundary layer stability and hydrostatic pressure. The authors use a regional atmospheric model to investigate the impact of drag induced by the Kuroshio in the East China Sea on the overlying winter atmosphere. Ocean currents dominate the wind stress curl compared to the impacts of sea surface temperature (SST) fronts. Wind stress convergences and divergences are weakly enhanced even though the ocean current is almost geostrophic. These modifications change the linear relationships (coupling coefficients) between the wind stress curl/divergence and the SST Laplacian, crosswind, and downwind gradients. Clear signatures of the ocean current impacts are found beyond the sea surface: sea surface pressure (back pressure) decreases near the current axis, and precipitation increases over the downwind region. However, these responses are very small despite strong Ekman pumping due to the current. A linear reduced gravity model is used to explain the boundary layer dynamics. The linear vorticity equation shows that the oceanic influence on wind stress curl is balanced by horizontal advection decoupling the boundary layer from the interior atmosphere. Spectral transfer functions are used to explain the general response of back pressure to geostrophic ocean currents and sea surface height.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

TWO REGIMES OF INTERACTION OF A HOT JUPITER’S ESCAPING ATMOSPHERE WITH THE STELLAR WIND AND GENERATION OF ENERGIZED ATOMIC HYDROGEN CORONA

The interaction of escaping the upper atmosphere of a hydrogen-rich non-magnetized analog of HD 209458b with a stellar wind (SW) of its host G-type star at different orbital distances is simulated with a 2D axisymmetric multi-fluid hydrodynamic (HD) model. A realistic Sun-like spectrum of X-ray and ultraviolet radiation, which ionizes and heats the planetary atmosphere, together with hydrogen photochemistry, as well as stellar-planetary tidal interaction are taken into account to generate self-consistently an atmospheric HD outflow. Two different regimes of the planetary and SW interaction have been modeled. These are: (1) the “ captured by the star ” regime, when the tidal force and pressure gradient drive the planetary material beyond the Roche lobe toward the star, and (2) the “ blown by the wind ” regime, when sufficiently strong SW confines the escaping planetary atmosphere and channels it into the tail. The model simulates in detail the HD interaction between the planetary atoms, protons and the SW, as well as the production of energetic neutral atoms (ENAs) around the planet due to charge exchange between planetary atoms and stellar protons. The revealed location and shape of the ENA cloud, either as a paraboloid shell between the ionopause and bowshock (for the “ blown by the wind ” regime), or a turbulent layer at the contact boundary between the planetary stream and SW (for the “ captured by the star ” regime) are of importance for the interpretation of Ly α absorption features in exoplanetary transit spectra and characterization of the plasma environments.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Self-luminous and Irradiated Exoplanetary Atmospheres Explored with HELIOS

We present new methodological features and physical ingredients included in the one-dimensional radiative transfer code HELIOS, improving the hemispheric two-stream formalism. We conduct a thorough intercomparison survey with several established forward models, including COOLTLUSTY and PHOENIX, and find satisfactory consistency with their results. Then, we explore the impact of (i) different groups of opacity sources, (ii) a stellar path length adjustment, and (iii) a scattering correction on self-consistently calculated atmospheric temperatures and planetary emission spectra. First, we observe that temperature–pressure (T–P) profiles are very sensitive to the opacities included, with metal oxides, hydrides, and alkali atoms (and ionized hydrogen) playing an important role in the absorption of shortwave radiation (in very hot surroundings). Moreover, if these species are sufficiently abundant, they are likely to induce nonmonotonic T–P profiles. Second, without the stellar path length adjustment, the incoming stellar flux is significantly underestimated for zenith angles above 80°, which somewhat affects the upper atmospheric temperatures and the planetary emission. Third, the scattering correction improves the accuracy of the computation of the reflected stellar light by ∼10%. We use HELIOS to calculate a grid of cloud-free atmospheres in radiative–convective equilibrium for self-luminous planets for a range of effective temperatures, surface gravities, metallicities, and C/O ratios to be used by planetary evolution studies. Furthermore, we calculate dayside temperatures and secondary eclipse spectra for a sample of exoplanets for varying chemistry and heat redistribution. These results may be used to make predictions on the feasibility of atmospheric characterizations with future observations.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Methods for Incorporating Model Uncertainty into Exoplanet Atmospheric Analysis

A key goal of exoplanet spectroscopy is to measure atmospheric properties, such as abundances of chemical species, in order to connect them to our understanding of atmospheric physics and planet formation. In this new era of high-quality JWST data, it is paramount that these measurement methods are robust. When comparing atmospheric models to observations, multiple candidate models may produce reasonable fits to the data. Typically, conclusions are reached by selecting the best-performing model according to some metric. This ignores model uncertainty in favor of specific model assumptions, potentially leading to measured atmospheric properties that are overconfident and/or incorrect. In this paper, we compare three ensemble methods for addressing model uncertainty by combining posterior distributions from multiple analyses: Bayesian model averaging, a variant of Bayesian model averaging using leave-one-out predictive densities, and stacking of predictive distributions. We demonstrate these methods by fitting the Hubble Space Telescope (HST) + Spitzer transmission spectrum of the hot Jupiter HD 209458b using models with different cloud and haze prescriptions. All of our ensemble methods lead to uncertainties on retrieved parameters that are larger but more realistic and consistent with physical and chemical expectations. Since they have not typically accounted for model uncertainty, uncertainties of retrieved parameters from HST spectra have likely been underreported. We recommend stacking as the most robust model combination method. Our methods can be used to combine results from independent retrieval codes and from different models within one code. They are also widely applicable to other exoplanet analysis processes, such as combining results from different data reductions.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

A framework to combine low- and high-resolution spectroscopy for the atmospheres of transiting exoplanets

Current observations of the atmospheres of close-in exoplanets are predominantly obtained with two techniques: low-resolution spectroscopy with space telescopes and high-resolution spectroscopy from the ground. Although the observables delivered by the two methods are in principle highly complementary, no attempt has ever been made to combine them, perhaps due to the different modeling approaches that are typically used in their interpretation. Here, we present the first combined analysis of previously published dayside spectra of the exoplanet HD 209458 b obtained at low resolution with HST/Wide Field Camera 3 (WFC3) and Spitzer/IRAC and at high resolution with VLT/CRIRES. By utilizing a novel retrieval algorithm capable of computing the joint probability distribution of low- and high-resolution spectra, we obtain tight constraints on the chemical composition of the planet’s atmosphere. In contrast to the WFC3 data, we do not confidently detect H{sub 2}O at high spectral resolution. The retrieved water abundance from the combined analysis deviates by 1.9σ from the expectations for a solar-composition atmosphere in chemical equilibrium. Measured relative molecular abundances of CO and H{sub 2}O strongly favor an oxygen-rich atmosphere (C/O < 1 at 3.5σ) for the planet when compared to equilibrium calculations including O rainout. From the abundances of the seven molecular species included in this study we constrain the planet metallicity to 0.1–1.0× the stellar value (1σ). This study opens the way to coordinated exoplanet surveys between the flagship ground- and space-based facilities, which ultimately will be crucial for characterizing potentially habitable planets.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

A tenuous carbon dioxide atmosphere on Jupiter's moon Callisto

An off-limb scan of Callisto was conducted by the Galileo near-infrared mapping spectrometer to search for a carbon dioxide atmosphere. Airglow in the carbon dioxide nu3 band was observed up to 100 kilometers above the surface and indicates the presence of a tenuous carbon dioxide atmosphere with surface pressure of 7.5 x 10(-12) bar and a temperature of about 150 kelvin, close to the surface temperature. A lifetime on the order of 4 years is suggested, based on photoionization and magnetospheric sweeping. Either the atmosphere is transient and was formed recently or some process is currently supplying carbon dioxide to the atmosphere.

unmanned↗

(abstract) Atmospheric Transmission Model Through Autonomous Visibility Measurement

Performance of deep space optical communications is impacted by atmospheric outages. By monitoring known stellar objects with calibrated telescopes, atmospheric attenuation statistics can be recorded. This paper describes a program to develop an atmospheric transmission model for optical communications by making automous visibility measurements of known stellar objects from three locations in the southwestern US. The data will be correlated and infused with weather data to establish the atmospheric transmission model. This model will be sent in link margin analysis for optical communications channels. The statistics will be updated on a quarterly basis and calibrated using data taken over a long period of time. This calibration is expected to allow extrapolation to other ground-based locations through use of global weather databases.

attenuation model↗

Fractional Order Modeling of Atmospheric Turbulence - A More Accurate Modeling Methodology for Aero Vehicles

The presentation covers a recently developed methodology to model atmospheric turbulence as disturbances for aero vehicle gust loads and for controls development like flutter and inlet shock position. The approach models atmospheric turbulence in their natural fractional order form, which provides for more accuracy compared to traditional methods like the Dryden model, especially for high speed vehicle. The presentation provides a historical background on atmospheric turbulence modeling and the approaches utilized for air vehicles. This is followed by the motivation and the methodology utilized to develop the atmospheric turbulence fractional order modeling approach. Some examples covering the application of this method are also provided, followed by concluding remarks.

Atmospheric Turbulence Modeling↗

Remote Linkages to Anomalous Winter Atmospheric Ridging over the Northeastern Pacific

Severe drought in California between 2013 and 2016 has been linked to the multiyear persistence of anomalously high atmospheric pressure over the northeastern Pacific Ocean, which deflected the Pacific storm track northward and suppressed regional precipitation during California's winter 'rainy season.' Multiple hypotheses have emerged regarding why this high pressure ridge near the west coast of North America was so resilient-including unusual sea surface temperature patterns in the Pacific Ocean, reductions in Arctic sea ice, random atmospheric variability, or some combination thereof. Here we explore relationships between previously documented atmospheric conditions over the North Pacific and several potential remote oceanic and cryospheric influences using both observational data and a large ensemble of climate model simulations. Our results suggest that persistent wintertime atmospheric ridging similar to that implicated in California's 2013-2016 drought can at least partially be linked to unusual Pacific sea surface temperatures, and that Pacific Ocean conditions may offer some degree of cool-season foresight in this region despite the presence of substantial internal variability.

California drought;Atmospheric ridging;Ocean-atmos↗

Measurements of isotope effects in the photoionization of N2 and implications for Titan's atmosphere

Isotope effects in the non-dissociative photoionization of molecular nitrogen (N2 + h nu -> N2+ + e-) may play a role in determining the relative abundances of isotopic species containing nitrogen in interstellar clouds and planetary atmospheres but have not been previously measured. Measurements of the photoionization efficiency spectra of 14N2, 15N14N, and 15N2 from 15.5 to 18.9 eV (65.6-80.0 nm) using the Advanced Light Source at Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory show large differences in peak energies and intensities, with the ratio of the energy-dependent photoionization cross-sections, sigma(14N2)/sigma(15N14N), ranging from 0.4 to 3.5. Convolving the cross-sections with the solar flux and integrating over the energies measured, the ratios of photoionization rate coefficients are J(15N14N)/J(14N2)=1.00+-0.02 and J(15N2)/J(14N2)=1.00+-0.02, suggesting that isotopic fractionation between N2 and N2+ should be small under such conditions. In contrast, in a one-dimensional model of Titan's atmosphere, isotopic self-shielding of 14N2 leads to values of J(15N14N)/J(14N2) as large as ~;;1.17, larger than under optically thin conditions but still much smaller than values as high as ~;;29 predicted for N2 photodissociation. Since modeled photodissociation isotope effects overpredict the HC15N/HC14N ratio in Titan's atmosphere, and since both N atoms and N2+ ions may ultimately lead to the formation of HCN, estimates of the potential of including N2 photoionization to contribute to a more quantitative explanation of 15N/14N for HCN in Titan's atmosphere are explored.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

The Advanced Global Atmospheric Gases Experiment (AGAGE) Data

In the ALE/GAGE/AGAGE global network program, continuous high frequency gas chromatographic measurements of four biogenic/anthropogenic gases (methane, CH4; nitrous oxide, N2O; hydrogen, H2; and carbon monoxide, CO) and several anthropogenic gases that contribute to stratospheric ozone destruction and/or to the greenhouse effect have been carried out at five globally distributed sites for several years. The program, which began in 1978, is divided into three parts associated with three changes in instrumentation: the Atmospheric Lifetime Experiment (ALE), which used Hewlett Packard HP5840 gas chromatographs; the Global Atmospheric Gases Experiment (GAGE), which used HP5880 gas chromatographs; and the present Advanced GAGE (AGAGE). AGAGE uses two types of instruments: a gas chromatograph with multiple detectors (GC-MD), and a gas chromatograph with mass spectrometric analysis (GC-MS). Beginning in January 2004, an improved cryogenic preconcentration system (Medusa) replaced the absorption-desorption module in the GC-MS systems at Mace Head and Cape Grim; this provided improved capability to measure a broader range of volatile perfluorocarbons with high global warming potentials. The Medusa GC-MS systems were subsequently used at other AGAGE stations (Trinidad Head, Barbados, American Samoa, Zeppelin, Jungfraujoch, and Goan) after the initial setup at Mace Head and Cape Grim. More information may be found at the AGAGE home page: https://agage.mit.edu/instruments.Compared to the previous version (https://data.ess-dive.lbl.gov/datasets/doi: doi:10.15485/1781803), the latest update (Agage_gcmd_gcms.data.2022_01_03.tar.gz) includes 6 months of new data through the end of September 2020. For a complete list of released compounds and used standard scales, please see “AGAGE_scale_2021_v1.pdf” file. Additional information can also be found on the AGAGE website (https://agage.mit.edu).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Causes and importance of new particle formation in the present-day and preindustrial atmospheres

New particle formation has been estimated to produce around half of cloud-forming particles in the present-day atmosphere, via gas-to-particle conversion. Here we assess the importance of new particle formation (NPF) for both the present-day and the preindustrial atmospheres. We use a global aerosol model with parametrizations of NPF from previously published CLOUD chamber experiments involving sulfuric acid, ammonia, organic molecules, and ions. We find that NPF produces around 67% of cloud condensation nuclei at 0.2% supersaturation (CCN0.2%) at the level of low clouds in the preindustrial atmosphere (estimated uncertainty range 45–84%)and 54% in the present day (estimated uncertainty range 38–66%). Concerning causes, we find that the importance of biogenic volatile organic compounds(BVOCs) in NPF and CCN formation is greater than previously thought. Removing BVOCs and hence all secondary organic aerosol from our model reduces low-cloud-level CCN concentrations at 0.2%supersaturation by 26% in the present-day atmosphere and 41% in the preindustrial. Around three quarters of this reduction is due to the tiny fraction of the oxidation products of BVOCs that have sufficiently low volatility to be involved in NPF and early growth. Furthermore, we estimate that 40% of preindustrial CCN0.2% are formed via ion-induced NPF, compared with 27% in the present day, although we caution that the ion-induced fraction of NPF involving BVOCs is poorly measured at present. In conclusion, our model suggests that the effect of changes in cosmic ray intensity on CCN is small and unlikely to be comparable to the effect of large variations in natural primary aerosol emissions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Global Effects of Superparameterization on Hydrothermal Land‐Atmosphere Coupling on Multiple Timescales

Abstract Many conventional General Circulation Models (GCMs) in the Global Land‐Atmosphere Coupling Experiment (GLACE) tend to produce what is now recognized as overly strong land‐atmosphere (L‐A) coupling. We investigate the effects of cloud Superparameterization (SP) on L‐A coupling on timescales beyond diurnal where it has been recently shown to have a favorable muting effect hydrologically. Using the Community Atmosphere Model v3.5 (CAM3.5) and its Superparameterized counterpart SPCAM3.5, we conducted soil moisture interference experiments following the GLACE and Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project (AMIP) protocols. The results show that, on weekly‐to‐subseasonal timescales, SP also mutes hydrologic L‐A coupling. This is detectable globally, and happens through the evapotranspiration‐precipitation segment. But on seasonal timescales, SP does not exhibit detectable effects on hydrologic L‐A coupling. Two robust regional effects of SP on thermal L‐A coupling have also been explored. Over the Arabian Peninsula, SP reduces thermal L‐A coupling through a straightforward control by mean rainfall reduction. More counterintuitively, over the Southwestern US and Northern Mexico, SP enhances the thermal L‐A coupling in a way that is independent of rainfall and soil moisture. This signal is associated with a systematic and previously unrecognized effect of SP that produces an amplified Bowen ratio, and is detectable in multiple SP model versions and experiment designs. In addition to amplifying the present‐day Bowen ratio, SP is found to amplify the climate sensitivity of Bowen ratio as well, which likely plays a role in influencing climate change predictions at the L‐A interface.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Seasonal southern hemisphere multi-variable reflection of the southern annular mode in atmosphere and ocean reanalyses

Variations of southern hemisphere (SH) climate variables are often linked to the southern annular mode (SAM) variability. We examined such linkage by seasons using state-of-the-art atmosphere and ocean/sea-ice reanalyses. The associated SAM related anomaly (SRA) fields of the climate variables, denoting anomalies corresponding to the same variation in SAM, are overall consistent across the reanalyses. Among the atmospheric products, 20CRV2 differs from ERA-interim and CFSR in the sea-level pressure SRAs over the Amundsen Sea, resulting in less warming over the Antarctic Peninsula. Among the ocean reanalyses, ORAP5 and C-GLORS exhibit the largest consistency. The major difference between them and the lower-resolution CFSR and SODA reanalyses is deeper penetration of anomalous meridional currents. Compared to the other ocean reanalyses, CFSR exhibits stronger and spatially more coherent surface-current SRAs, resulting in greater SRAs of sea-ice motion and ice thickness along the ice edges. The SRAs of sensible and total surface heat fluxes are reduced in CFSR due to ocean–atmosphere coupling. Significant sea-ice concentration SRAs are present on the west side of peninsulas along the east Antarctica coast in spring and winter, most notably in ORAP5 and C-GLORS, implying changes in new-ice production and shelf-water formation. Most atmosphere and ocean variables manifest an annular SRA pattern in summer and a non-annular pattern in the other seasons, with a wavenumber-3 structure strongest in autumn and weakest in summer. The wavenumber-3 structure should be related to the zonal wave three pattern of the SH circulation, the relation of which to SAM needs further exploration.

Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences↗

Uncertain role of clouds in shaping summertime atmosphere-sea ice connections in reanalyses and CMIP6 models

Downwelling longwave radiation (DLR) driven by the atmospheric and cloud conditions in the troposphere is suggested to be a dominant factor to determine the summertime net surface energy budget over the Arctic Ocean and thus plays a key role to shape the September sea ice. We use reanalyses and the self-organizing map (SOM) method to distinguish CMIP6 model performance in replicating the observed strong atmosphere-DLR connection. We find all models can reasonably simulate the linkage between key atmosphere variables and the clear sky DLR but behave differently in replicating the atmosphere-DLR connection due to cloud forcing. In ERA5 and strongly coupled models, tropospheric high pressure is associated with decreased clouds in the mid- and high-levels and increased clouds near the surface. This out-of-phase structure indicates that DLR cloud forcing is nearly neutral, making the clear sky DLR more important to bridge JJA circulation to late-summer sea ice. In MERRA-2 and weakly coupled models, tropospheric clouds display a vertically homogeneous reduction; the cloud DLR is thus strongly reduced due to the cooling effect, which partially cancels out the clear sky DLR and makes the total DLR less efficient to translate circulation forcing to sea ice. The differences of cloud vertical distribution in CMIP6 appear to be differentiated by circulation related relative humidity. Therefore, a better understanding of the discrepancy of different reanalyses and remote sensing products is critical to comprehensively evaluate simulated interactions among circulation, clouds, sea ice and energy budget at the surface in summer.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Gas Phase Conversion of UN and UC in Nitrating Atmosphere

The gas-phase conversion of UN and UC into water-soluble compounds in the atmosphere NO{sub x}–H{sub 2}O (vapor)–air and HNO{sub 3} (vapor)–air in the interval 298–423 K was investigated. It is shown that in the gasphase conversion process UN is converted into water-soluble compounds (nitrates, hydroxy nitrates). It is found that the gas-phase conversion of UN in the atmosphere NO{sub x}–H{sub 2}O (vapor)–air is less efficient than in the atmosphere HNO{sub 3} (vapor)–air. In the process of gas-phase conversion of UC in a nitrating atmosphere the main products of conversion are uranyl nitrate hydrates. In addition, carbon-containing products are formed and their removal requires ozonation of the solutions formed as a result of contact between water and the products of UC conversion.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗