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NASA NTRS2011

Comparing the Earth Impact Flux from Comets and Near-Earth Asteroids

Long-period comets (LPC), defined here as those active comets with orbital periods greater than 200 years, are the most difficult objects to mitigate should one be found on an Earth threatening trajectory. The arrival of these objects from the distant Oort cloud cannot be predicted and the impact warning time would be measured in a few months - not years. At the distance of Jupiter, an inactive cometary nucleus with a diameter of one kilometer and a geometric albedo equal to 0.04 would have an apparent magnitude fainter than 25 near opposition and, hence would be well outside the detection capability of current NEO search telescopes. In general LPCs do not become active, and hence discoverable, until inside the orbit of Jupiter and it takes but nine months for a LPC to travel the distance from Jupiter's orbit to that of the Earth.Estimating the impact energy for long-period comets is particularly difficult because the sizes and masses of these objects are not well known. Their solid nuclei are hidden from ground-based telescopes by their gas and dust atmospheres and even when nearby spacecraft observations can determine a size and shape for a cometary nucleus, there are no direct determinations of any cometary mass or bulk density to date. However, a variety of indirect bulk density determinations consistently provide values below one gram per cubic centimeter, the value for water. From measurements made by the Deep Impact spacecraft during its encounter with comet Tempel 1 in July 2005, the bulk density was estimated to be 0.6 grams per cubic centimeter. The mean impact velocity of a LPC is about 51 km/s, three times the 17 km/s value for a typical near-Earth asteroid (NEA) so the impact energy for an LPC would be 9 times that of a NEA of similar mass. However, the bulk density of a comet (approx. 0.6 g/cu cm) is several times less than the density of a stony NEA (approx. 2.6 g/ cu cm) so for a LPC and a stony NEA of the same size, the LPC's impact energy would be about twice that of the NEA.To properly allocate the limited resources available for NEO surveys and physical characterization, it is important to understand the relative threat from long-period comets versus the threat posed by near-Earth asteroids.

near Earth objects↗

NASA NTRS2013

Advances in Discrete-Event Simulation for MSL Command Validation

In the last five years, the discrete event simulator, SEQuence GENerator (SEQGEN), developed at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory to plan deep-space missions, has greatly increased uplink operations capacity to deal with increasingly complicated missions. In this paper, we describe how the Mars Science Laboratory (MSL) project makes full use of an interpreted environment to simulate change in more than fifty thousand flight software parameters and conditional command sequences to predict the result of executing a conditional branch in a command sequence, and enable the ability to warn users whenever one or more simulated spacecraft states change in an unexpected manner. Using these new SEQGEN features, operators plan more activities in one sol than ever before.

discrete event simulation↗

NASA NTRS2010

Observing Traveling Ionospheric Disturbances Caused by Tsunamis Using GPS TEC Measurements

Ground-based Global Positioning System (GPS) measurements of ionospheric Total Electron Content (TEC) show variations consistent with atmospheric internal gravity waves caused by ocean tsunamis following two recent seismic events: the American Samoa earthquake of September 29, 2009, and the Chile earthquake of February 27, 2010. Fluctuations in TEC correlated in time, space, and wave properties with these tsunamis were observed in TEC estimates processed using JPL's Global Ionospheric Mapping Software. These TEC estimates were band-pass filtered to remove ionospheric TEC variations with wavelengths and periods outside the typical range of internal gravity waves caused by tsunamis. Observable variations in TEC appear correlated with the tsunamis in certain locations, but not in others. Where variations are observed, the typical amplitude tends to be on the order of 1% of the background TEC value. Variations with amplitudes ~ 0.1 - 0.2 TECU are observable with periods and timing affiliated with the tsunami. These observations are compared to estimates of expected tsunami-driven TEC variations produced by Embry Riddle Aeronautical University's Spectral Full Wave Model, an atmosphere-ionosphere coupling model, and found to be in good agreement in some locations, though there are cases when the model predicts an observable tsunami-driven signature and none is observed. These TEC variations are not always seen when a tsunami is present, but in these two events the regions where a strong ocean tsunami was observed did coincide with clear TEC observations, while a lack of clear TEC observations coincided with smaller tsunami amplitudes. There exists the potential to apply these detection techniques to real-time GPS TEC data, providing estimates of tsunami speed and amplitude that may be useful for early warning systems.

Galvan, David A.↗

NASA NTRS2015

NASA Near Earth Network (NEN), Deep Space Network (DSN) and Space Network (SN) Support of CubeSat Communications

There has been a historical trend to increase capability and drive down the Size, Weight and Power (SWAP) of satellites and that trend continues today. Small satellites, including systems conforming to the CubeSat specification, because of their low launch and development costs, are enabling new concepts and capabilities for science investigations across multiple fields of interest to NASA. NASA scientists and engineers across many of NASAs Mission Directorates and Centers are developing exciting CubeSat concepts and welcome potential partnerships for CubeSat endeavors. From a communications and tracking point of view, small satellites including CubeSats are a challenge to coordinate because of existing small spacecraft constraints, such as limited SWAP and attitude control, low power, and the potential for high numbers of operational spacecraft. The NASA Space Communications and Navigation (SCaN) Programs Near Earth Network (NEN), Deep Space Network (DSN) and the Space Network (SN) are customer driven organizations that provide comprehensive communications services for space assets including data transport between a missions orbiting satellite and its Mission Operations Center (MOC). The NASA NEN consists of multiple ground antennas. The SN consists of a constellation of geosynchronous (Earth orbiting) relay satellites, named the Tracking and Data Relay Satellite System (TDRSS). The DSN currently makes available 13 antennas at its three tracking stations located around the world for interplanetary communication. The presentation will analyze how well these space communication networks are positioned to support the emerging small satellite and CubeSat market. Recognizing the potential support, the presentation will review the basic capabilities of the NEN, DSN and SN in the context of small satellites and will present information about NEN, DSN and SN-compatible flight radios and antenna development activities at the Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC) and across industry. The presentation will review concepts on how the SN multiple access capability could help locate CubeSats and provide a low-latency early warning system. The presentation will also present how the DSN is evolving to maximize use of its assets for interplanetary CubeSats. The critical spectrum-related topics of available and appropriate frequency bands, licensing, and coordination will be reviewed. Other key considerations, such as standardization of radio frequency interfaces and flight and ground communications hardware systems, will be addressed as such standardization may reduce the amount of time and cost required to obtain frequency authorization and perform compatibility and end-to-end testing. Examples of standardization that exist today are the NASA NEN, DSN and SN systems which have published users guides and defined frequency bands for high data rate communication, as well as conformance to CCSDS standards. The workshop session will also seek input from the workshop participants to better understand the needs of small satellite systems and to identify key development activities and operational approaches necessary to enhance communication and navigation support using NASA's NEN, DSN and SN.

Telecommunication↗

NASA NTRS2015

Municipality Level Simulations of Dengue Fever Incidence in Puerto Rico Using Ground Based and Remotely Sensed Climate Data

Dengue fever (DF) is caused by a virus transmitted between humans and Aedes genus mosquitoes through blood feeding. In recent decades incidence of the disease has drastically increased in the tropical Americas, culminating with the Pan American outbreak in 2010 which resulted in 1.7 million reported cases. In Puerto Rico dengue is endemic, however, there is significant inter‐annual, intraannual, and spatial variability in case loads. Variability in climate and the environment, herd immunity and virus genetics, and demographic characteristics may all contribute to differing patterns of transmission both spatially and temporally. Knowledge of climate influences on dengue incidence could facilitate development of early warning systems allowing public health workers to implement appropriate transmission intervention strategies. In this study, we simulate dengue incidence in several municipalities in Puerto Rico using population and meteorological data derived from ground based stations and remote sensing instruments. This data was used to drive a process based model of vector population development and virus transmission. Model parameter values for container composition, vector characteristics, and incubation period were chosen by employing a Monte Carlo approach. Multiple simulations were performed for each municipality and the results were compared with reported dengue cases. The best performing simulations were retained and their parameter values and meteorological input were compared between years and municipalities. Parameter values varied by municipality and year illustrating the complexity and sensitivity of the disease system. Local characteristics including the natural and built environment impact transmission dynamics and produce varying responses to meteorological conditions.

Remote Sensing↗

NASA NTRS2015

Los Alamos RAGE Simulations of the HAIV Mission Concept

The mitigation of potentially hazardous objects (PHOs) can be accomplished by a variety of methods including kinetic impactors, gravity tractors and several nuclear explosion options. Depending on the available lead time prior to Earth impact, non- nuclear options can be very effective at altering a PHOs orbit. However if the warning time is short nuclear options are generally deemed most effective at mitigating the hazard. The NIAC mission concept for a nuclear mission has been presented at several meetings, including the last PDC (2013).We use the adaptive mesh hydrocode RAGE to perform detailed simulations of this Hypervelocity Asteroid Intercept Vehicle (HAIV) mission concept. We use the RAGE code to simulate the crater formation by the kinetic impactor as well as the explosion and energy coupling from the follower nuclear explosive device (NED) timed to detonate below the original surface to enhance the energy coupling. The RAGE code has been well validated for a wide variety of applications. A parametric study will be shown of the energy and momentum transfer to the target 100 m diameter object: 1) the HAIV mission as planned; 2) a surface explosion and 3) a subsurface (contained) explosion; both 2) and 3) use the same source energy as 1).Preliminary RAGE simulations show that the kinetic impactor will carve out a surface crater on the object and the subsequent NED explosion at the bottom of the crater transfers energy and momentum to the target effectively moving it off its Earth crossing orbit. Figure 1 shows the initial (simplified) RAGE 2D setup geometry for this study. Figure 2 shows the crater created by the kinetic impactor and Figure 3 shows the time sequence of the energy transfer to the target by the NED.

Asteroid Mitigation↗

NASA NTRS2009

Evaluation of IEEE 802.11g and 802.16 for Lunar Surface Exploration Missions Using MACHETE Simulations

In this paper, we investigated the suitability of terrestrial wireless networking technologies for lunar surface exploration missions. Specifically, the scenario we considered consisted of two teams of collaborating astronauts, one base station and one rover, where the base station and the rover have the capability of acting as relays. We focused on the evaluation of IEEE 802.11g and IEEE 802.16 protocols, simulating homogeneous 802.11g network, homogeneous 802.16 network, and heterogeneous network using both 802.11g and 802.16. A mix of traffic flows were simulated, including telemetry, caution and warning, voice, command and file transfer. Each traffic type had its own distribution profile, data volume, and priority. We analyzed the loss and delay trade-offs of these wireless protocols with various link-layer options. We observed that 802.16 network managed the channel better than an 802.11g network due to controlled infrastructure and centralized scheduling. However, due to the centralized scheduling, 802.16 also had a longer delay. The heterogeneous (hybrid) of 802.11/802.16 achieved a better balance of performance in terms of data loss and delay compared to using 802.11 or 802.16 alone.

Segui, John↗

NASA NTRS2014

STEREO as a "Planetary Hazards" Mission

NASA's twin STEREO probes, launched in 2006, have advanced the art and science of space weather forecasting more than any other spacecraft or solar observatory. By surrounding the Sun, they provide previously-impossible early warnings of threats approaching Earth as they develop on the solar far side. They have also revealed the 3D shape and inner structure of CMEs-massive solar storms that can trigger geomagnetic storms when they collide with Earth. This improves the ability of forecasters to anticipate the timing and severity of such events. Moreover, the unique capability of STEREO to track CMEs in three dimensions allows forecasters to make predictions for other planets, giving rise to the possibility of interplanetary space weather forecasting too. STEREO is one of those rare missions for which "planetary hazards" refers to more than one world. The STEREO probes also hold promise for the study of comets and potentially hazardous asteroids.

Heliosphere↗

NASA NTRS1964

The Effect of Information Feedback Upon Psychophysical Judgments

An analysis was made of the role of presentation schedules and information feedback on performance in a forced-choice signal detection task. The experimental results indicate that information feedback facilitates performance, but only for certain presentation schedules. The present study was designed to assess performance in a signal detection task under two conditions of information feedback. In the I-condition, S was told on each trial whether his detection response was correct or incorrect; in the !-condition S was given no feedback regarding the correctness of his response. The task involved a 2-response, forced-choice auditory detection problem. On each trial 2 temporal intervals were defined and S was required to report which interval he believed contained the signal; i. e., in one interval a tone burst in a background of white noise was presented, while the other interval contained only white noise. A trial will be denoted as s1 or s2, depending on whether the signal was embedded in the 1st or 2nd interval; the S's response will be denoted A1 or A2 to indicate which interval he reported contained the signal. The probability of an s1 trial will be denoted as y. In this study two values of y were used (.50 and.75) and, as indicated above, two conditions of information feedback. Thus there were 4 experimental conditions (501, · 50I, 751, 75I); each S was run under all 4 conditions. Method Gaussian noise was presented binaurally in S's headphones throughout a test session and the signal was a 1000-cps sinusoid tone; the tone was presented for 100 msec. including equal fall and rise times of 20 msec. The ratio of signal energy to noise power in a unit bandwidth was 2.9, and was constant throughout the study. The. S was seated before a stimulus display board. On each trial a red warning light was flashed for 100 msec. Two amber lights then came on successively each for 1 sec.; these lights defined the 2 observation intervals. The onset of the signal occurred 500 msec. after the onset of one of the observation intervals. After the second amber light went off, S indicated his response by pressing 1 of 2 wand switches under cards reading "1st interval" and "2nd interval." For the !-condition a green light flashed on above the correct response key after S's response; the green light was omitted in the !-condition. Each trial lasted 6 sec. The S's were 12 male college students with normal hearing. They were run for two practice sessions followed by 20 test sessions. Test sessions were run on consecutive days, 350 trials/day. Each day S ran on 1 of the 4 experimental conditions; in successive 4-day blocks S ran one day on each of the 4 experimental conditions in a random order. Thus, over 20 days each of the experimental conditions was repeated 5 times.

Atkinson, Richard C.↗

NASA NTRS2015

RadWorks Project. ISS REM - to - BIRD - to - HERA: The Evolution of a Technology

The advancement of particle detectors based on technologies developed for use in high-energy physics applications has enabled the development of a completely new generation of compact low-power active dosimeters and area monitors for use in space radiation environments. One such device, the TimePix, is being developed at CERN, and is providing the technology basis for the most recent line of radiation detection devices being developed by the NASA AES RadWorks project. The most fundamental of these devices, an ISS-Radiation Environment Monitor (REM), is installed as a USB device on ISS where it is monitoring the radiation environment on a perpetual basis. The second generation of this TimePix technology, the BIRD (Battery-operated Independent Radiation Detector), was flown on the NASA EFT-1 flight in December 2014. Data collected by BIRD was the first data made available from the Trapped Belt region of the Earth's atmosphere in over 40 years. The 3rdgeneration of this technology, the HERA (Hybrid Electronic Radiation Assessor), is planned to be integrated into the Orion EM-1, and EM-2 vehicles where it will monitor the radiation environment. For the EM-2 flight, HERA will provide Caution and Warning notification for SPEs as well as real time dose measurements for crew members. The development of this line of radiation detectors provide much greater information and characterization of charged particles in the space radiation environment than has been collected in the past, and in the process provide greater information to inform crew members of radiation related risks, while being very power and mass efficient.

McLeod, Catherine D.↗

NASA NTRS2015

From Diagnosis to Action: An Automated Failure Advisor for Human Deep Space Missions

The major goal of current space system development at NASA is to enable human travel to deep space locations such as Mars and asteroids. At that distance, round trip communication with ground operators may take close to an hour, thus it becomes unfeasible to seek ground operator advice for problems that require immediate attention, either for crew safety or for activities that need to be performed at specific times for the attainment of scientific results. To achieve this goal, major reliance will need to be placed on automation systems capable of aiding the crew in detecting and diagnosing failures, assessing consequences of these failures, and providing guidance in repair activities that may be required. We report here on the most current step in the continuing development of such a system, and that is the addition of a Failure Response Advisor. In simple terms, we have a system in place the Advanced Caution and Warning System (ACAWS) to tell us what happened (failure diagnosis) and what happened because that happened (failure effects). The Failure Response Advisor will tell us what to do about it, how long until something must be done and why its important that something be done and will begin to approach the complex reasoning that is generally required for an optimal approach to automated system health management. This advice is based on the criticality and various timing elements, such as durations of activities and of component repairs, failure effects delay, and other factors. The failure advice is provided to operators (crew and mission controllers) together with the diagnostic and effects information. The operators also have the option to drill down for more information about the failure and the reasons for any suggested priorities.

spacecraft health maintenance↗

NASA NTRS2014

Analyzing a 35-Year Hourly Data Record: Why So Difficult?

At the Goddard Distributed Active Archive Center, we have recently added a 35-Year record of output data from the North American Land Assimilation System (NLDAS) to the Giovanni web-based analysis and visualization tool. Giovanni (Geospatial Interactive Online Visualization ANd aNalysis Infrastructure) offers a variety of data summarization and visualization to users that operate at the data center, obviating the need for users to download and read the data themselves for exploratory data analysis. However, the NLDAS data has proven surprisingly resistant to application of the summarization algorithms. Algorithms that were perfectly happy analyzing 15 years of daily satellite data encountered limitations both at the algorithm and system level for 35 years of hourly data. Failures arose, sometimes unexpectedly, from command line overflows, memory overflows, internal buffer overflows, and time-outs, among others. These serve as an early warning sign for the problems likely to be encountered by the general user community as they try to scale up to Big Data analytics. Indeed, it is likely that more users will seek to perform remote web-based analysis precisely to avoid the issues, or the need to reprogram around them. We will discuss approaches to mitigating the limitations and the implications for data systems serving the user communities that try to scale up their current techniques to analyze Big Data.

computational performance↗

NASA NTRS2016

Mars Surface Tunnel Element Concept

When the first human visitors on Mars prepare to return to Earth, they will have to comply with stringent planetary protection requirements. Apollo Program experience warns that opening an EVA hatch directly to the surface will bring dust into the ascent vehicle. To prevent inadvertent return of potential Martian contaminants to Earth, careful consideration must be given to the way in which crew ingress their Mars Ascent Vehicle (MAV). For architectures involving more than one surface element-such as an ascent vehicle and a pressurized rover or surface habitat-a retractable tunnel that eliminates extravehicular activity (EVA) ingress is an attractive solution. Beyond addressing the immediate MAV access issue, a reusable tunnel may be useful for other surface applications, such as rover to habitat transfer, once its primary mission is complete. A National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) team is studying the optimal balance between surface tunnel functionality, mass, and stowed volume as part of the Evolvable Mars Campaign (EMC). The study team began by identifying the minimum set of functional requirements needed for the tunnel to perform its primary mission, as this would presumably be the simplest design, with the lowest mass and volume. This Minimum Functional Tunnel then becomes a baseline against which various tunnel design concepts and potential alternatives can be traded, and aids in assessing the mass penalty of increased functionality. Preliminary analysis indicates that the mass of a single-mission tunnel is about 237 kg, not including mass growth allowance.

Rucker, Michelle A.↗

NASA NTRS2015

Individualized Behavioral Health Monitoring Tool

Behavioral health risks during long-duration space exploration missions are among the most difficult to predict, detect, and mitigate. Given the anticipated extended duration of future missions and their isolated, extreme, and confined environments, there is the possibility that behavior conditions and mental disorders will develop among astronaut crew. Pulsar Informatics, Inc., has developed a health monitoring tool that provides a means to detect and address behavioral disorders and mental conditions at an early stage. The tool integrates all available behavioral measures collected during a mission to identify possible health indicator warning signs within the context of quantitatively tracked mission stressors. It is unobtrusive and requires minimal crew time and effort to train and utilize. The monitoring tool can be deployed in space analog environments for validation testing and ultimate deployment in long-duration space exploration missions.

Mollicone, Daniel↗

NASA NTRS2015

Deployment Technology of a Heliogyro Solar Sail for Long Duration Propulsion

Interplanetary, multi-mission, station-keeping capabilities will require that a spacecraft employ a highly efficient propulsion-navigation system. The majority of space propulsion systems are fuel-based and require the vehicle to carry and consume fuel as part of the mission. Once the fuel is consumed, the mission is set, thereby limiting the potential capability. Alternatively, a method that derives its acceleration and direction from solar photon pressure using a solar sail would eliminate the requirement of onboard fuel to meet mission objectives. MacNeal theorized that the heliogyro-configured solar sail architecture would be lighter, less complex, cheaper, and less risky to deploy a large sail area versus a masted sail. As sail size increases, the masted sail requires longer booms resulting in increased mass, and chaotic uncontrollable deployment. With a heliogyro, the sail membrane is stowed as a roll of thin film forming a blade when deployed that can extend up to kilometers. Thus, a benefit of using a heliogyro-configured solar sail propulsion technology is the mission scalability as compared to masted versions, which are size constrained. Studies have shown that interplanetary travel is achievable by the heliogyro solar sail concept. Heliogyro solar sail concept also enables multi-mission missions such as sample returns, and supply transportation from Earth to Mars as well as station-keeping missions to provide enhanced warning of solar storm. This paper describes deployment technology being developed at NASA Langley Research Center to deploy and control the center-of-mass/center-of-pressure using a twin bladed heliogyro solar sail 6-unit (6U) CubeSat. The 6U comprises 2x2U blade deployers and 2U for payload. The 2U blade deployers can be mounted to 6U or larger scaled systems to serve as a non-chemical in-space propulsion system. A single solar sail blade length is estimated to be 2.4 km with a total area from two blades of 720 m2; total allowable weight of a 6U CubeSat is approximately 8 kg. This makes the theoretical characteristic acceleration of approximately 0.75 mm/s2 at I AU (astronomical unit), when compared to IKAROS (0.005 mm/s2) and NanoSail-D (0.02 mm/s2).

Peerawan, Wiwattananon↗

NASA NTRS2016

Caribbean Oceans: Utilizing NASA Earth Observations to Detect, Monitor, and Respond to Unprecedented Levels of Sargassum in the Caribbean Sea

In 2011 and 2015, the nations of the Caribbean Sea were overwhelmed by the unprecedented quantity of Sargassum that washed ashore. This issue prompted international discussion to better understand the origins, distribution, and movement of Sargassum, a free-floating brown macro alga with ecological, environmental, and commercial importance. In the open ocean, Sargassum mats serve a vital ecological function. However, when large quantities appear onshore without warning, Sargassum threatens local tourist industries and nearshore ecosystems within the Caribbean. As part of the international response, this project investigated the proliferation of this macro alga within the Caribbean Sea from 2003-2015, and used NASA Earth observations to detect and model Sargassum growth across the region. The Caribbean Oceans team calculated the Floating Algal Index (FAI) using Terra Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) data, and compared the FAI to various oceanic variables to determine the ideal pelagic environment for Sargassum growth. The project also examined the annual spread of Sargassum throughout the region by using Earth Trends Modeler (ETM) in Clark Labs' TerrSet software. As part of the international effort to better understand the life cycle of Sargassum in the Caribbean, the results of this project will help local economies promote sustainable management practices in the region.

Ped, Jordan↗

NASA NTRS2015

Verification of a Remaining Flying Time Prediction System for Small Electric Aircraft

This paper addresses the problem of building trust in online predictions of a battery powered aircraft's remaining available flying time. A set of ground tests is described that make use of a small unmanned aerial vehicle to verify the performance of remaining flying time predictions. The algorithm verification procedure described here uses a fully functional vehicle that is restrained to a platform for repeated run-to-functional-failure experiments. The vehicle under test is commanded to follow a predefined propeller RPM profile in order to create battery demand profiles similar to those expected in flight. The fully integrated aircraft is repeatedly operated until the charge stored in powertrain batteries falls below a specified lower-limit. The time at which the lower-limit on battery charge is crossed is then used to measure the accuracy of remaining flying time predictions. Accuracy requirements are considered in this paper for an alarm that warns operators when remaining flying time is estimated to fall below a specified threshold.

Hogge, Edward F.↗

NASA NTRS2016

Forecasting the Northern African Dust Outbreak Towards Europe in April 2011: A Model Intercomparison

In the framework of the World Meteorological Organisation's Sand and Dust Storm Warning Advisory and Assessment System, we evaluated the predictions of five state-of-the-art dust forecast models during an intense Saharan dust outbreak affecting western and northern Europe in April 2011. We assessed the capacity of the models to predict the evolution of the dust cloud with lead times of up to 72 hours using observations of aerosol optical depth (AOD) from the AErosol RObotic NETwork (AERONET) and the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) and dust surface concentrations from a ground-based measurement network. In addition, the predicted vertical dust distribution was evaluated with vertical extinction profiles from the Cloud and Aerosol Lidar with Orthogonal Polarization (CALIOP). To assess the diversity in forecast capability among the models, the analysis was extended to wind field (both surface and profile), synoptic conditions, emissions and deposition fluxes. Models predict the onset and evolution of the AOD for all analysed lead times. On average, differences among the models are larger than differences among lead times for each individual model. In spite of large differences in emission and deposition, the models present comparable skill for AOD. In general, models are better in predicting AOD than near-surface dust concentration over the Iberian Peninsula. Models tend to underestimate the long-range transport towards northern Europe. Our analysis suggests that this is partly due to difficulties in simulating the vertical distribution dust and horizontal wind. Differences in the size distribution and wet scavenging efficiency may also account for model diversity in long-range transport.

dust storms↗