Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “variable selection”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 1,657 records · Page 92
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2015

SU-E-T-424: Feasibility of 3D Printed Radiological Equivalent Customizable Tissue Like Materials

Purpose: To investigate the feasibility of 3D printing CT# specific radiological equivalent tissue like materials. Methods: A desktop 3D printer was utilized to create a series of 3 cm x 3 cm x 2 cm PLA plastic blocks of varying fill densities. The fill pattern was selected to be hexagonal (Figure 1). A series of blocks was filled with paraffin and compared to a series filled with air. The blocks were evaluated with a “GE Lightspeed” 16 slice CT scanner and average CT# of the centers of the materials was determined. The attenuation properties of the subsequent blocks were also evaluated through their isocentric irradiation via “TrueBeam” accelerator under six beam energies. Blocks were placed upon plastic-water slabs of 4 cm in thickness assuring electronic equilibrium and data was collected via Sun Nuclear “Edge” diode detector. Relative changes in dose were compared with those predicted by Varian “Eclipse” TPS. Results: The CT# of 3D printed blocks was found to be a controllable variable. The fill material was able to narrow the range of variability in each sample. The attenuation of the block tracked with the density of the total fill structure. Assigned CT values in the TPS were seen to fall within an expected range predicted by the CT scans of the 3D printed blocks. Conclusion: We have demonstrated that it is possible to 3D print materials of varying tissue equivalencies, and that these materials have radiological properties that are customizable and predictable.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Herbaceous Feedstock 2018 State of Technology Report

The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) promotes the production of advanced liquid transportation fuels from lignocellulosic biomass by funding fundamental and applied research that advances the state of technology (SOT). As part of its involvement with this mission, Idaho National Laboratory (INL) completes an annual SOT report for biomass feedstock logistics. This report summarizes supply system impacts of Bioenergy Technologies Office (BETO)-funded research and development efforts at INL and elsewhere (such as the High-Tonnage Feedstock Logistics projects (Webb et al. 2013a, Webb et al. 2013b, Webb et al. 2013c, Webb and Sokhansanj 2014, Sokhansanj et al. 2014) that lead to improvements in feedstock supply systems. These include improvements to and observed performance of innovative harvest and collection methods, storage technologies, transportation and handling approaches, and advanced preprocessing technologies. Biomass quality and variability, and the interface between feedstock quality and conversion performance are key drivers in addition to delivered feedstock cost. In this report, we estimate the benefits of R&D improvements to individual supply system unit operations, and present the status of feedstock logistics technology development for converting biomass into biofuels. These analyses are supported by experimental data where possible, and help to align the SOT relative to the cost goals defined in the Multi-Year Program Plan. The 2018 Herbaceous SOT aligned feedstock logistic design with current biorefinery’s design capacity utilized by biochemical conversion platform. Currently biochemical conversion platform utilizes a 725,000 dry ton/year biorefiney design for the techno economic analysis. Hence, feedstock delivered cost in the 2018 Herbaceous SOT is calculated based on biorefinery’s 725,000 dry ton design capacity instead of 800, 000 dry ton capacity utilized in the 2017 Herbaceous SOT. Biomass availabilities in this SOT were updated to year 2018 data from the 2016 Billion-Ton Report (BT16) (DOE 2016a), with the exception of switchgrass, for which the 2018 Herbaceous SOT utilized the 2019 switchgrass availability data from BT16. The BT16 report (DOE 2016a) does not project switchgrass availability in 2018; the soonest switchgrass is available in the BT16 report is 2019. Therefore, availability of switchgrass for this analysis was that projected for 2019. The 2018 Herbaceous SOT incorporates same technologies utilized in the 2017 Herbaceous SOT. However, a sensitivity analysis is performed to understand the impact of variation of process parameters on those technologies on feedstock logistic cost. New R&D data that shows the variations of process parameters affecting process performance is incorporated in the 2018 SOT to measure the variations in delivered feedstock cost. The 2018 Herbaceous SOT has also provided projected delivered feedstock of 2022 design case based on near term technical target under BETO funded R&D project. Finally, updated biorefinery size of 725,000 dry ton/year was incorporated within least-cost formulation model to select optimal siting and depot scales during optimization of the least cost blend. This modification to the optimization algorithm allows the trade-off between the cost of increased supply radius and the savings from selecting biomass from higher producing counties to be assessed. Such optimization has also showed the economic benefit of decentralized depots in comparison to centralized preprocessing co-located with the biorefinery by decoupling the biorefinery and feedstock locations. The 2018 Herbaceous SOT report documents the current modeled cost of a herbaceous feedstock supply system (from harvest to the pretreatment reactor throat, including grower payment) for hydrocarbon fuel production via biochemical conversion, based on equipment and processes now available or potentially available in the near term. The modeled cost also considers both the required quality and the availability of the biomass resources. The 2018 Herbaceous SOT predicts a modeled delivered feedstock cost of $83.67/dry ton (2016$); this is a $0.23/dry ton (2016$) decrease from the 2017 Herbaceous SOT. The modification of biorefinery’s designed capacity and increased projected biomass availability in the same supply shed contributed to this modeled cost reduction. The least-cost formulation model to optimally site and scale local distributed preprocessing depots also contributed to the cost reduction by considering county-level grower payment and distance from the biorefinery as variables in the optimization algorithm. Sensitivity analysis on various process parameters that affect delivered feedstock cost in the 2018 Herbaceous SOT shows that the delivered cost could varies from $80.45-$88.83/dry ton. The top factors that causes such variations are: effective baling rate, bale density, hammer mill throughput, interest rate and storage dry matter loss.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2026

Computational methods in solution-based plastics purification

Plastic waste can be recycled into resins with near-virgin properties by solution-based purification processes that selectively dissolve polymers, remove contaminants, or detach printing residues. Here, in this review, we examine computational methods for predicting the behavior governing solution-based plastic purification, motivated by the vast polymer–solvent–contaminant compositional space. We discuss thermodynamic and machine learning methods for predicting polymer–solvent and polymer–contaminant interaction and review physics-based molecular dynamics simulations that resolve molecular-scale phenomena within polymer matrices inaccessible to screening methods. We highlight how these methods have informed experimental design for dissolution-based recycling and solvent-based contaminant removal. Finally, we discuss the prospective role of agentic AI in integrating these computational tools with real-time sorting data to adapt purification conditions to the compositional variability of real post-consumer feedstocks. This review charts a path toward computationally guided solution-based purification workflows that can respond to the complexity inherent in plastic waste streams.

Altamimi, Ali [Univ. of Wisconsin, Madison, WI (Un↗
DOE OSTI2017

Bench Scale Process for Low Cost CO 2 Capture Using a Phase-Changing Absorbent: Final Scientific/Technical Report

The objective of this project is to design and build a bench-scale process for a novel phase-changing aminosilicone-based CO 2 -capture solvent. The project will establish scalability and technical and economic feasibility of using a phase-changing CO 2 -capture absorbent for post-combustion capture of CO 2 from coal-fired power plants. The U.S. Department of Energy’s goal for Transformational Carbon Capture Technologies is the development of technologies available for demonstration by 2025 that can capture 90% of emitted CO 2 with at least 95% CO 2 purity for less than $40/tonne of CO 2 captured. In the first budget period of the project, the bench-scale phase-changing CO2 capture process was designed using data and operating experience generated under a previous project (ARPA-e project DE-AR0000084). Sizing and specification of all major unit operations was completed, including detailed process and instrumentation diagrams. The system was designed to operate over a wide range of operating conditions to allow for exploration of the effect of process variables on CO 2 capture performance. In the second budget period of the project, individual bench-scale unit operations were tested to determine the performance of each of each unit. Solids production was demonstrated in dry simulated flue gas across a wide range of absorber operating conditions, with single stage CO 2 conversion rates up to 75mol%. Desorber operation was demonstrated in batch mode, resulting in desorption performance consistent with the equilibrium isotherms for GAP-0/CO 2 reaction. Important risks associated with gas humidity impact on solids consistency and desorber temperature impact on thermal degradation were explored, and adjustments to the bench-scale process were made to address those effects. Corrosion experiments were conducted to support selection of suitable materials of construction for the major unit operations in the process. The bench scale unit operations were assembled into a continuous system to support steady state system testing. In the third budget period of the project, continuous system testing was conducted, including closed-loop operation of the absorber and desober systems. Slurries of GAP-0/GAP-0 carbamate/water mixtures produced in the absorber were pumped successfully to the desorber unit, and regenerated solvent was returned to the absorber. A techno-economic analysis, EH&S risk assessment, and solvent manufacturability study were completed.

20 FOSSIL-FUELED POWER PLANTS↗
DOE OSTI2017

Characterization, Identification and Seasonal Evaluation of Microbes in Mercury Contaminated Soils

Mercury (Hg) contamination within the Oak Ridge Reservation has been an ongoing research. A comprehensive understanding of the potentials of predominant microorganisms in selected cleanup strategy is highly paramount. The use of sorbents has been proposed as a cleanup strategy; however, biological factors need to be evaluated as regards to the strategy. The goal of this study was to use microbes isolated from various contaminated sites and determine their effectiveness on sorbents to reduce total Hg (HgT). We isolated DNA from contaminated soils (SB 5-8, SB 14-8) and control soil (Hinds Creek) with littleor no Hg contamination. Pure cultures were obtained from soil samples using broad-spectrum nutrient broth, and natural medium formulated using extracts from the different soil samples. Selected colonies and total DNA from the soils were used for 16S rDNA sequencing. Some Hg reducers (Acinetobacter rhizosphaerae and Serratia marcescens) were isolated. S. marcescens was chosen due to its role in bioremediating and transforming Hg. Study of hg leachability in the contaminated soils showed that the amount of leachable Hg varied in magnitude among the three soils possibly due to seasonal changes. Sorbent was added to determine control in leachability after the soils have been incubated for 14 days in diH2O. S. marcescens was inoculated into the soils along with sorbents and incubated for 48 hrs at 25°C. Total Hg (HgT) concentrations were determined using cold vapor atomic fluorescence in accordance with EPA method 1631. A variable amount of methylators was found in each soil type. Organisms that grew on the nutrient agar grew poorly on the natural medium with variable colonies. However, S. marcescens grew on both media. S. marcescens showed high reduction of Hg2+ compared to the sorbent; however, when inoculated in the soil, the sorbent was found to absorb more HgT in solution.

Egbo, Timothy↗
DOE OSTI2015

THE DUSTIEST POST-MAIN SEQUENCE STARS IN THE MAGELLANIC CLOUDS

Using observations from the Herschel Inventory of The Agents of Galaxy Evolution (HERITAGE) survey of the Magellanic Clouds (MC), we have found 35 evolved stars and stellar end products that are bright in the far-infrared. These 28 (LMC) and 7 (SMC) sources were selected from the 529 evolved star candidates in the HERITAGE far-infrared point source catalogs. Our source identification method is based on spectral confirmation, spectral energy distribution characteristics, careful examination of the multiwavelength images and includes constraints on the luminosity, resulting in a thoroughly vetted list of evolved stars. These sources span a wide range in luminosity and hence initial mass. We found 13 low- to intermediate-mass evolved stars, including asymptotic giant branch (AGB) stars, post-AGB stars, planetary nebulae, and a symbiotic star. We also identify 10 high mass stars, including 4 of the 15 known B[e] stars in the MC, 3 extreme red supergiants that are highly enshrouded by dust, a Luminous Blue Variable, a Wolf–Rayet star, and two supernova remnants. Further, we report the detection of 9 probable evolved objects which were previously undescribed in the literature. These sources are likely to be among the dustiest evolved objects in the MC. The Herschel emission may either be due to dust produced by the evolved star or it may arise from swept-up interstellar medium material.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2021

A Multi-Objective Bayesian Optimization Approach Using the Weighted Tchebycheff Method

Abstract Bayesian optimization (BO) is a low-cost global optimization tool for expensive black-box objective functions, where we learn from prior evaluated designs, update a posterior surrogate Gaussian process model, and select new designs for future evaluation using an acquisition function. This research focuses upon developing a BO model with multiple black-box objective functions. In the standard multi-objective (MO) optimization problem, the weighted Tchebycheff method is efficiently used to find both convex and non-convex Pareto frontiers. This approach requires knowledge of utopia values before we start optimization. However, in the BO framework, since the functions are expensive to evaluate, it is very expensive to obtain the utopia values as a prior knowledge. Therefore, in this paper, we develop a MO-BO framework where we calibrate with multiple linear regression (MLR) models to estimate the utopia value for each objective as a function of design input variables; the models are updated iteratively with sampled training data from the proposed MO-BO. These iteratively estimated mean utopia values are used to formulate the weighted Tchebycheff MO acquisition function. The proposed approach is implemented in two numerical test examples and one engineering design problem of optimizing thin tube geometries under constant loading of temperature and pressure, with minimizing the risk of creep-fatigue failure and design cost, along with risk-based and manufacturing constraints. Finally, the model accuracy with frequentist, Bayesian and without MLR-based calibration are compared to true Pareto solutions.

Engineering↗
DOE OSTI2025

Linking large-scale weather patterns to observed and modeled turbine hub-height winds offshore of the US West Coast

The US West Coast holds great potential for wind power generation, although its potential varies due to the complex coastal climate. Characterizing and modeling turbine hub-height winds under different weather conditions are vital for wind resource assessment and management. This study uses a two-stage machine learning algorithm to identify five large-scale meteorological patterns (LSMPs): post-trough, post-ridge, pre-ridge, pre-trough, and California high. The LSMPs are linked to offshore wind patterns, specifically at lidar buoy locations within lease areas for future wind farm development off Humboldt and Morro Bay. While each LSMP is associated with characteristic large-scale atmospheric conditions and corresponding differences in wind direction, diurnal variation, and jet features at the two lidar sites, substantial variability in wind speeds can still occur within each LSMP. Wind speeds at Humboldt increase during the post-trough, pre-ridge, and California-high LSMPs and decrease during the remaining LSMPs. Morro Bay has smaller responses in mean speeds, showing increased wind speed during the post-trough and California-high LSMPs. Besides the LSMPs, local factors, including the land–sea thermal contrast and topography, also modify mean winds and diurnal variation. The High-Resolution Rapid Refresh model analysis does a good job of capturing the mean and variation at Humboldt but produces large biases at Morro Bay, particularly during the pre-ridge and California-high LSMPs. The findings are anticipated to guide the selection of cases for studying the influence of specific large-scale and local factors on California offshore winds and to contribute to refining numerical weather prediction models, thereby enhancing the efficiency and reliability of offshore wind energy production.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2017

Human age and skin physiology shape diversity and abundance of Archaea on skin

The human skin microbiome acts as an important barrier protecting our body from pathogens and other environmental influences. Recent investigations have provided evidence that Archaea are a constant but highly variable component of the human skin microbiome, yet factors that determine their abundance changes are unknown. Here, we tested the hypothesis that the abundance of archaea on human skin is influenced by human age and skin physiology by quantitative PCR of 51 different skin samples taken from human subjects of various age. Our results reveal that archaea are more abundant in human subjects either older than 60 years or younger than 12 years as compared to middle-aged human subjects. These results, together with results obtained from spectroscopy analysis, allowed us gain first insights into a potential link of lower sebum levels and lipid content and thus reduced skin moisture with an increase in archaeal signatures. In conclusion, amplicon sequencing of selected samples revealed the prevalence of specific eury- and mainly thaumarchaeal taxa, represented by a core archaeome of the human skin.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2018

Marine Corps Base Camp Lejeune LANDIS-II Model Outputs

Critical military training and testing on lands along the nation’s coastal and estuarine shorelines are increasingly placed at risk because of encroachment pressures in surrounding areas, impairments due to other anthropogenic disturbances, and changes in climate and sea level. The U.S. Department of Defense (DoD) intends to enhance and sustain its training and testing assets and also optimize its stewardship of natural resources through the development and application of an ecosystem-based management approach on DoD installations. To accomplish this goal, particularly for installations in estuarine/coastal environments, the Strategic Environmental Research and Development Program (SERDP) launched the Defense Coastal/Estuarine Research Program (DCERP) as a 10-year effort at Marine Corps Base Camp Lejeune (MCBCL) in North Carolina. The results of the second 5 years of the program (DCERP2) are presented in the DCERP2 Final Report.There were four overarching objectives of DCERP2. The first objective was to understand the effects of climate change impacts, including warming temperatures, variability in the hydrological cycle, storm events, and sea level rise on the coastal ecosystems at MCBCL from observations and measurements made over the 10-year program. The second objective was to understand the carbon cycle of the coastal and terrestrial ecosystems at MCBCL through a highly integrated sampling program. The third objective was to develop models, tools, and indicators to evaluate current and projected future ecosystem state changes and translate scientific findings into actionable information for installation managers. The last objective was to recommend adaptive management strategies to sustain ecosystem natural resources within the context of an active military installation.The LANDIS-II model shows different annual estimates of forest C storage (g/m2) across the MCBCL landscape, based on the user selecting different forest management scenarios typically used in the southeastern US. LANDIS-II is a model with several extensions capable of simulating different landscape and ecosystem-level dynamics.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Methods for Computing Physically Realistic Estimates of Electric Water Heater Demand Response Resource Suitable for Bulk Power System Planning Models

Demand response is commonly called on to reduce load during system peak times or to respond to contingency events. In future power systems with higher shares of wind and solar generation (which we describe together as variable generation [VG]), demand response could have more opportunities to provide energy shifting or operating reserve services. This report evaluates the ability of residential electric water heaters, both electric resistance water heaters (ERWHs) and heat pump water heaters (HPWHs), to provide such services starting from detailed whole-building energy models that realistically represent New England single family home stock. We use a parsimonious surrogate model to represent operational flexibility in a form suitable for linear and mixed integer programming. This enables relatively fast determination of aggregate contingency reserve resource, price-taking energy shifting outcomes, and in some cases the determination of aggregate models at the megawatt (MW) scale that can be directly included in large-scale grid models. After selecting modeling methods and parameters through various computational experiments, we find interquartile ranges of contingency reserve resource in ISO-NE for about 603,400 ERWHs of 45 MW - 69 MW for Claim10 (50 minute responses provided with 10 minutes of advanced notification) and 65 MW - 102 MW for Claim30 (30 minute responses provided with 30 minutes of advanced notification), and for about 619,000 HPWHs of 48 MW - 88 MW for Claim10 and 52 MW - 90 MW for Claim30. The overall reserve resource is up to 32% of total load for ERWHs providing Claim10 service, 47% for ERWHs providing Claim30 service, 93% for HPWHs providing Claim10 service, and 97% for HPWHs providing Claim30 service. More work is required to determine if HPWHs are inherently more suitable than ERWHs for providing contingency reserve or if these results reflect idiosyncrasies of the single family home stock model used in this study. The value of this contingency resource in a Near-term VG model of ISO-NE is $\$ 0.40$ to $\$1.20$ per water heater-year, and significantly larger, $\$ 3.80$ to $\$ 5.30$ per water heater-year in a Mid-term VG model of ISONE. Aggregating surrogate models to the MW-scale for energy shifting service is more challenging than for contingency service and we only present such results for ERWHs, because we were unable to determine satisfactory ways to deal with HPWHs' time-varying and path dependent operational characteristics. Individual surrogate models suitable for evaluating the energy shifting resource from both ERWHs and HPWHs are created, however, and dispatched against day-ahead prices from the Near-Term VG and Mid-Term VG models of ISO-NE. The individual surrogate models are able to access and potentially shift all 640 GWh of HPWH load and 1,547 GWh of ERWH load we modeled in two different single family home stock models. In contrast, the most effective model of aggregate ERWH shifting resource we created only captured 34.7% of the total ERWH load. Energy shifting affected by price-taking dispatch against modeled day-ahead energy prices produces per water heater year profits of $\$19.44$ - $\$22.93$ for individual HPWHs, $\$39.11$ - $\$40.54$ for individual ERWHs, and up to $\$4.00$ - $\$4.24$ for aggregated ERWHs, with the variations mainly due to grid conditions (more or less VG). When the supply-side response to these changes is accounted for, the per water heater year production cost savings for ISO-NE are $\$7.50$ to $\$17.70$ for the most effective set of endogenously dispatched aggregate ERWHs, $\$15.60$ to $\$15.70$ for individual ERWHs dispatched against the DA prices, and $\$10.70$ to $\$11.20$ for individual HPWHs dispatched against DA prices. Those ranges primarily represent the difference between Near-Term VG and Mid-Term VG grid conditions.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2023

Extended Low Load Boiler Operation to Improve Performance and Economics of an Existing Coal Fired Power Plant (Final Report)

The overall goal is to improve the performance and economics of existing coal fired power plants by extending low load boiler operation to lower loads than is currently achievable. The objective of this program is to develop and validate sensor hardware and analytical algorithms to lower plant operating expenses (OPEX) for the currently operating pulverized coal utility boiler fleet. Coal fired utility boilers are increasingly under grid dispatch pressure. In some cases, the coal fired cost of generation is noncompetitive with respect to natural gas generation and subsidized renewable sources. To remain profitable and remain fully compliant with existing environmental regulations, the installed coal fired fleet must find technologies which allow it to move into a more flexible cyclic load dispatch model. Today the installed coal fired utility fleet must be cost of generation competitive, fully emissions compliant, and responsive to the variability inherent in renewable energy generation sources. In the Phase I of the project, GE Steam Power, Inc. (GE) performed modeling of different operating scenarios for low load operation using an existing full plant dynamic model developed for a 660MW steam power plant. Sensors and analytic algorithms to enable a stable and steady coal supply for low load pulverizer operation were identified and tested at the Pulverizer Development Facility (PDF) at GE’s Clean Energy Center in Bloomfield, Connecticut. Sensors and analytic algorithms to enable stable combustion for low load operation were identified and tested at the 15 MWth Industrial Scale Burner facility (ISBF) at GE’s Clean Energy Center. A concept was developed to test the sensors and control algorithms, down selected after testing, at a full-scale coal fired power plant. A budget estimate was then developed, and the concept was implemented at an existing utility power plant. The specific objectives of the experimental work were to: • Identify and select sensors and analytic algorithms for monitoring coal pulverizer operation at lower loads to provide stable operation and appropriate coal fineness at lower coal throughput; Identify and select sensors and analytic algorithms for a Boiler Flame Stability Monitor to better balance air and fuel at each burner. This enables a reduction in a coal boiler’s safe low load power level while maintaining stable flame characteristics; Develop a concept in Phase I for low load operation of a full-scale power plant and develop a budget estimate for testing and execute the test plan at an existing plant in Phase II; Validate the capability of the extended low load boiler system to extend the minimum load operating point in a safe and reliable manner on an existing full-scale utility boiler. At the completion of this experimental study, GE has developed a set of sensors and analytic algorithms, down selected after testing, that have the potential to enable safe low load operation of a utility boiler. GE has also identified a host site for testing these identified sensors and analytic algorithms. GE has generated a full set of deliverables that provide sufficient information to proceed with the next step of testing at a host site. This includes a potential host site and budget estimate for concept testing at host site. In the Phase II of the project, a series of field tests were completed to validate the extended low load boiler operation, which consisted of detailed engineering, installation, commissioning, and testing the additional sensors and analytics for the coal-fired combustion system on an existing full-scale utility boiler. The optimization work has been supported by the host plant and endorsed by their engineering and operation staff.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗
DOE OSTI2016

Revisiting the Lyman continuum escape crisis: predictions for z > 6 from local galaxies

The intrinsic escape fraction of ionizing Lyman continuum photons (f{sub esc}) is crucial to understanding whether galaxies are capable of reionizing the neutral hydrogen in the early universe at z > 6. Unfortunately, it is not possible to access f{sub esc} at z > 4 with direct observations, and the handful of measurements from low-redshift galaxies consistently find f{sub esc} < 10%, while at least f{sub esc} ∼ 10% is necessary for galaxies to dominate reionization. Here, we present the first empirical prediction of f{sub esc} at z > 6 by combining the (sparsely populated) relation between [O III]/[O II] and f{sub esc} with the redshift evolution of [O III]/[O II] as predicted from local high-z analogs selected by their Hα equivalent width. We find f{sub esc}=5.7{sub −3.3}{sup +8.3}% at z = 6 and f{sub esc}=10.4{sub −6.3}{sup +15.5}% at z = 9 for galaxies with log(M/M{sub ⊙})∼9.0 (errors given as 1σ). However, there is a negative correlation with stellar mass and we find up to 50% larger f{sub esc} per 0.5 dex decrease in stellar mass. The population-averaged escape fraction increases according to f{sub esc}=f{sub esc,0}((1+z)/3){sup α}, with f {sub esc,0} = (2.3 ± 0.05)% and α = 1.17 ± 0.02 at z > 2 for log(M/M{sub ⊙})∼9.0. With our empirical prediction of f{sub esc} (thus fixing an important, previously unknown variable) and further reasonable assumptions on clumping factor and the production efficiency of Lyman continuum photons, we conclude that the average population of galaxies is just capable of reionizing the universe by z ∼ 6.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2017

The Populations of Carina. I. Decoding the Color–Magnitude Diagram

We investigate the color–magnitude diagram (CMD) of the Carina dwarf spheroidal galaxy using data of Stetson et al. and synthetic CMDs based on isochrones of Dotter et al., in terms of the parameters [Fe/H], age, and [ α /Fe], for the cases when (i) [ α /Fe] is held constant and (ii) [ α /Fe] is varied. The data are well described by four basic epochs of star formation, having [Fe/H] = −1.85, −1.5, −1.2, and ∼−1.15 and ages ∼13, 7, ∼3.5, and ∼1.5 Gyr, respectively (for [ α /Fe] = 0.1, constant [ α /Fe], and [ α /Fe] = 0.2, 0.1, −0.2, −0.2, variable [ α /Fe]), with small spreads in [Fe/H] and age of order 0.1 dex and 1–3 Gyr. Within an elliptical radius 13.′1, the mass fractions of the populations, at their times of formation, were (in decreasing age order) 0.34, 0.39, 0.23, and 0.04. This formalism reproduces five observed CMD features (two distinct subgiant branches of old and intermediate-age populations, two younger, main-sequence components, and the small color dispersion on the red giant branch (RGB). The parameters of the youngest population are less certain than those of the others, and given it is less centrally concentrated, it may not be directly related to them. High-resolution spectroscopically analyzed RGB samples appear statistically incomplete compared with those selected using radial velocity, which contain bluer stars comprising ∼5%–10% of the samples. We conjecture these objects may, at least in part, be members of the youngest population. We use the CMD simulations to obtain insight into the population structure of Carina's upper RGB.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Field Measurement and Analysis of Frequency and RoCoF for Low-Inertia Power Systems

The frequency measurement and rate of change of frequency (RoCoF) calculations are important for active power, frequency control, and frequency-related protection in power system operations. With the rapid decrease in inertia under modern power systems, however, multiple power variations introduced by variable renewable energy bring large RoCoF and introduce oscillations in frequency measurements. To shed light on this issue, this article proposes a frequency measurement and RoCoF analysis technology, as well as the sensitivity analysis for the real low-inertia power grid. First, a real-world event in an island power grid is analyzed as an example, and an event numerical model is estimated considering four uncertainties, including event RoCoF, oscillation magnitude, oscillation frequency, and underfrequency load-shedding threshold. Then, a sensitivity analysis is performed using the Sobol indices method and quasi-Monte Carlo simulations to identify the dominant uncertainties based on the event model. Here, the dominant uncertainties are compared to provide a guideline for the frequency estimation algorithm selection under different event cases. This algorithm is compared with an enhanced zero-crossing algorithm and gives a 3.41% better RoCoF error rate. Finally, an experiment is conducted using universal grid analyzers to validate the simulation results and the theoretical analysis.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2022

A Multistage Stochastic Transmission Expansion Algorithm for Wide-Area Planning under Uncertainty

The overall objective for this project was to develop and demonstrate a set of methods for solving the transmission investment problem for a large network considering many possible scenarios of future conditions and multiple decision points when investments can be made. Project sub-objectives achieved this goal through a succession of extending the methods to apply to problems with increasing complexity or additional features, including the number of decision points, whether generation and transmission are co-optimized, and whether AC or DC power flow is used. A transmission model was developed for the Western Electric Coordinating Council (WECC) region, the high-voltage transmission system that serves the western third of the continental U.S. Using a dataset provided by WECC and by researchers from John Hopkins University, we have validated and demonstrated the model and used it to compare the new method for solving multi-stage stochastic transmission planning to several state-of-the-art techniques. The project has resulted in several key outcomes and achievements: The covariance-based method for choosing a small set of hours to represent short-term variability has superior performance in terms of accuracy to existing methods, including K-means clustering and Importance Sampling; The combined partitioning method for long-term uncertainty with the nested clustering approach for choosing representative hours for each long-term group has superior accuracy for equivalent computational effort compared with existing methods; Using the partitioning/clustering method combined with Sample Average Approximation provides both statistical bounds on the quality of the solution and at the same time, a complete investment plan for all contingencies in the full uncertainty set; no existing methods can provide both at the same time; The method is demonstrated to work well for choosing both transmission and generation investments; A variant on the method allows for both scenario selection and simultaneous correction for the error from the DC power flow approximation to provide a tractable method for AC power flow-based transmission planning under uncertainty; The method applied to the WECC case study demonstrates the additional value to the system operator and the consumer of identifying flexible investment options in the near-term decisions. In particular, the case study exhibits significant option value in postponing some transmission additions that appear useful but in some long-term system states create new congestion problems.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2016

A STUDY OF BROADBAND FARADAY ROTATION AND POLARIZATION BEHAVIOR OVER 1.3–10 GHz IN 36 DISCRETE RADIO SOURCES

We present a broadband polarization analysis of 36 discrete polarized radio sources over a very broad, densely sampled frequency band. Our sample was selected on the basis of polarization behavior apparent in narrowband archival data at 1.4 GHz: half the sample shows complicated frequency-dependent polarization behavior (i.e., Faraday complexity) at these frequencies, while half shows comparatively simple behavior (i.e., they appear Faraday simple ). We re-observed the sample using the Australia Telescope Compact Array in full polarization, with 6 GHz of densely sampled frequency coverage spanning 1.3–10 GHz. We have devised a general polarization modeling technique that allows us to identify multiple polarized emission components in a source, and to characterize their properties. We detect Faraday complex behavior in almost every source in our sample. Several sources exhibit particularly remarkable polarization behavior. By comparing our new and archival data, we have identified temporal variability in the broadband integrated polarization spectra of some sources. In a number of cases, the characteristics of the polarized emission components, including the range of Faraday depths over which they emit, their temporal variability, spectral index, and the linear extent of the source, allow us to argue that the spectropolarimetric data encode information about the magneto-ionic environment of active galactic nuclei themselves. Furthermore, the data place direct constraints on the geometry and magneto-ionic structure of this material. We discuss the consequences of restricted frequency bands on the detection and interpretation of polarization structures, and the implications for upcoming spectropolarimetric surveys.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2015

Neutron Imaging of a Two-Phase Refrigerant Flow

Void fraction remains a crucial parameter in understanding and characterizing two-phase flow. It appears as a key variable in both heat transfer and pressure drop correlations of two-phase flows, from the macro to micro- channel scale. Void fraction estimation dictates the sizing of both evaporating and condensing phase change heat exchangers, for example. In order to measure void fraction some invasive approach is necessary. Typically, visualization is achieved either downstream of the test section or on top by machining to expose the channel. Both approaches can lead to inaccuracies. The former assumes the flow will not be affected moving from the heat exchanger surface to the transparent section. The latter distorts the heat flow path. Neutron Imaging can provide a non-invasive measurement because metals such as Aluminum are essentially transparent to neutrons. Hence, if a refrigerant is selected that provides suitable neutron attenuation; steady-state void fraction measurements in two-phase flow are attainable in-situ without disturbing the fluid flow or heat flow path. Neutron Imaging has been used in the past to qualitatively describe the flow in heat exchangers in terms of maldistributions without providing void fraction data. This work is distinguished from previous efforts because the heat exchanger has been designed and the refrigerant selected to avail of neutron imaging. This work describes the experimental flow loop that enables a boiling two-phase flow; the heat exchanger test section and downstream transparent section are described. The flow loop controls the degree of subcooling and the refrigerant flowrate. Heating cartridges embedded in the test section are employed to control the heat input. Neutron-imaged steady-state void fraction measurements are captured and compared to representative high-speed videography captured at the visualization section. This allows a qualitative comparison between neutron imaged and traditional techniques. The measurements are also compared to correlations in the literature. Preliminary void fraction images from a macro-channel flow are presented, consisting of 1 channel, 4mm wide, 4mm high and 83.32mm long. Flow regime identification is examined. The experiments were conducted at the High Flux Isotope Reactor (HFIR) Cold Guide 1D neutron imaging facility at Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, TN, USA.

Geoghegan, Patrick J↗