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DOE OSTI2020

The Great Markarian 421 Flare of 2010 February: Multiwavelength Variability and Correlation Studies

We report on variability and correlation studies using multiwavelength observations of the blazar Mrk 421 during the month of February, 2010 when an extraordinary flare reaching a level of ~27 Crab Units above 1 TeV was measured in very-highenergy (VHE) γ-rays with the VERITAS observatory. This is the highest flux state for Mrk 421 ever observed in VHE γ-rays. Data are analyzed from a coordinated campaign across multiple instruments including VHE γ-ray (VERITAS, MAGIC), high-energy (HE) γ-ray (Fermi-LAT), X-ray (Swift, RXTE, MAXI), optical (including the GASP-WEBT collaboration and polarization data) and radio (Mets¨ahovi, OVRO, UMRAO). Light curves are produced spanning multiple days before and after the peak of the VHE flare, including over several flare ‘decline’ epochs. The main flare statistics allow 2-minute time bins to be constructed in both the VHE and optical bands enabling a cross-correlation analysis that shows evidence for an optical lag of ~25–55 minutes, the first time-lagged correlation between these bands reported on such short timescales. Limits on the Doppler factor (δ & 33) and the size of the emission region (δ -1RB . 3.8 × 10 13 cm) are obtained from the fast variability observed by VERITAS during the main flare. Analysis of 10-minute-binned VHE and X-ray data over the decline epochs shows an extraordinary range of behavior in the flux-flux relationship: from linear to quadratic to lack of correlation to anti-correlation. Taken together, these detailed observations of an unprecedented flare seen in Mrk 421 are difficult to explain by the classic single-zone synchrotron self-Compton model.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Variability and Spectral Characteristics of Three Flaring Gamma-Ray Quasars Observed by VERITAS and Fermi-LAT

Flat-spectrum radio quasars (FSRQs) are the most luminous blazars at GeV energies but only rarely emit detectable fluxes of TeV gamma rays, typically during bright GeV flares. We explore the gamma-ray variability and spectral characteristics of three FSRQs that have been observed at GeV and TeV energies by Fermi-LAT and VERITAS, making use of almost 100 hr of VERITAS observations spread over 10 yr: 3C 279, PKS 1222+216, and Ton 599. We explain the GeV flux distributions of the sources in terms of a model derived from a stochastic differential equation describing fluctuations in the magnetic field in the accretion disk and estimate the timescales of magnetic flux accumulation and stochastic instabilities in their accretion disks. We identify distinct flares using a procedure based on Bayesian blocks and analyze their daily and subdaily variability and gamma-ray energy spectra. Using observations from VERITAS, as well as Fermi, Swift, and the Steward Observatory, we model the broadband spectral energy distributions of PKS 1222+216 and Ton 599 during very high energy (VHE)–detected flares in 2014 and 2017, respectively, strongly constraining the jet Doppler factors and gamma-ray emission region locations during these events. Finally, we place theoretical constraints on the potential production of PeV-scale neutrinos during these VHE flares.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2022

New Clues to the Evolution of Dwarf Carbon Stars From Their Variability and X-Ray Emission

As main-sequence stars with C > O, dwarf carbon (dC) stars are never born alone but inherit carbon-enriched material from a former asymptotic giant branch (AGB) companion. In contrast to M dwarfs in post-mass-transfer binaries, C 2 and/or CN molecular bands allow dCs to be identified with modest-resolution optical spectroscopy, even after the AGB remnant has cooled beyond detectability. Accretion of substantial material from the AGB stars should spin up the dCs, potentially causing a rejuvenation of activity detectable in X-rays. Indeed, a few dozen dCs have recently been found to have photometric variability with periods under a day. However, most of those are likely post-common-envelope binaries, spin–orbit locked by tidal forces, rather than solely spun-up by accretion. Here, we study the X-ray properties of a sample of the five nearest-known dCs with Chandra. Two are detected in X-rays, the only two for which we also detected short-period photometric variability. We suggest that the coronal activity detected so far in dCs is attributable to rapid rotation due to tidal locking in short binary orbits after a common-envelope phase, late in the thermally pulsing (TP) phase of the former C-AGB primary (TP-AGB).

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Variable Active Galactic Nuclei in the Galaxy Evolution Explorer Time Domain Survey

We searched the northern hemisphere fields of the Galaxy Evolution Explorer Time Domain Survey for galaxies with UV variability indicative of active galactic nuclei (AGNs). We identified 48 high-probability candidate AGNs from a parent sample of 1819 galaxies in the NASA Sloan Atlas catalog. We further characterized these systems using optical spectroscopic diagnostics, Wide-field Infrared Survey Explorer IR color selection criteria, and spectral energy distribution modeling. Of the 48 candidates, eight were identified as AGNs from optical emission lines, two were identified by their IR colors, and 28 were identified through spectral energy decomposition. Observational biases of each selection method are discussed in connecting these AGN subsamples to another. By selecting AGNs based on UV variability, we also identified six low-mass AGN candidates, all of which would have been missed by spectroscopic selection.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2023

X-Ray Properties of Optically Variable Low-mass AGN Candidates

We present an X-ray analysis of 14 nearby (z < 0.044) active galactic nuclei (AGNs) in low-mass galaxies (M* ≲ 5 × 10 9 M ⊙ ) selected based on their optical variability. Comparing and contrasting different AGN selection techniques in low-mass galaxies is essential for obtaining an accurate estimate of the active fraction in this regime. We use both new and archival observations from the Chandra X-ray Observatory to search for X-ray point sources consistent with AGNs. Four objects have detected nuclear X-ray emission with luminosities ranging from L 0.5-7 ≈ 3 × 10 40 to 9 × 10 42 erg s -1 with two more marginal detections. All of the detected galaxies have luminosities exceeding those anticipated from X-ray binaries, and all sources are nuclear, suggesting the X-ray emission in most sources is due to an AGN. These observations demonstrate the success of variability at identifying AGNs in low-mass galaxies. We also explore emission-line diagnostics and discuss the differences in the results of these methods for AGN selection, in particular regarding low-mass and low-metallicity systems.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Variable X-Ray Reverberation in the Rapidly Accreting Active Galactic Nucleus Ark 564: The Response of the Soft Excess to the Changing Geometry of the Inner Accretion Flow

X-ray reverberation, which exploits the time delays between variability in different energy bands as a function of Fourier frequency, probes the structure of the inner accretion disks and X-ray coronae of active galactic nuclei. We present a systematic X-ray spectroscopic and reverberation study of the high-Eddington-ratio narrow-line Seyfert 1 galaxy Ark 564, using over 900 ks of XMM-Newton and NuSTAR observations spanning 13 yr. The time-averaged spectra can be well described by a model consisting of a coronal continuum, relativistic disk reflection, warm Comptonization, and three warm absorbers. Leveraging the high X-ray brightness of Ark 564, we are able to resolve the time evolution of the spectra and contemporaneous reverberation lags. The soft-band lag relative to the continuum increases with the X-ray flux, while Fe Kα lags are detected in only a subset of epochs and do not correlate with soft lags. Models based on a lamppost corona and reflection from a standard thin disk can broadly reproduce the observed lag-energy spectra of low-flux epochs; however, additional reverberation from the warm Comptonized atmosphere is required to explain the soft lags observed in high-flux epochs. A vertically puffed-up inner disk and a variable, vertically extended corona can better explain the observed evolution of the lags and covariance spectra. Our study underscores the importance of multiepoch, multiband analyses for a comprehensive understanding the inner accretion disk and corona.

Active galactic nuclei↗
DOE OSTI2026

A New Member of the Fast and Furious Family: A Relativistic and Time-variable UV Outflow in a Luminous Quasar

We report the fastest quasar outflow first detected in the ultraviolet, via variable C IV and Si IV absorption at outflow velocities −77,000 km s −1 to at least −90,000 km s −1 , in the radio-quiet quasar SDSS J231854.31+243954.2 (J2318). J2318 is a weak-lined quasar in the rest-frame ultraviolet, but Gemini GNIRS spectroscopy reveals an Hα redshift of z = 2.6781 ± 0.0004. A 20 yr photometric time series shows peak-to-peak variability of 0.5 mag in the g band. The C IV outflow strengthened monotonically over three epochs spanning ∼2.2 rest-frame years. The existence of such a high-velocity outflow implies that models of quasar outflows must be able to either accelerate gas to 0.3c while still preserving C IV and Si IV ions, or enable the formation of C IV and Si IV ions in gas, which has been accelerated to 0.3c. Virial estimates reveal a black-hole mass of 1.65 × 10 9 M ⊙ , which leads to an Eddington luminosity and Eddington ratio of 2.4 × 10 47 erg s −1 and 0.45, respectively. Using very conservative assumptions, the UV-absorbing outflow alone has an estimated mass loss of >0.82 M ⊙ yr −1 and a kinetic luminosity ratio L kin /L bol ≥ 0.75%. The lower limit is just above the threshold usually cited for significant feedback on the host galaxy. Comparison to PDS 456, the only other known quasar with a UV-absorbing outflow at 0.3c, suggests that the true $\dot{M}$ and Lkin/Lbol could be up to 2 orders of magnitude larger.

Seaton, Lucas M. [York University] (ORCID:00090006↗
DOE OSTI2017

X-Ray Spectral Analyses of AGNs from the 7Ms Chandra Deep Field-South Survey: The Distribution, Variability, and Evolutions of AGN Obscuration

We present a detailed spectral analysis of the brightest active galactic nuclei (AGNs) identified in the 7Ms Chandra Deep Field-South (CDF-S) survey over a time span of 16 years. Using a model of an intrinsically absorbed power-law plus reflection, with possible soft excess and narrow Fe Kα line, we perform a systematic X-ray spectral analysis, both on the total 7Ms exposure and in four different periods with lengths of 2–21 months. With this approach, we not only present the power-law slopes, column densities N{sub H}, observed fluxes, and absorption-corrected 2–10 keV luminosities L {sub X} for our sample of AGNs, but also identify significant spectral variabilities among them on timescales of years. We find that the N{sub H} variabilities can be ascribed to two different types of mechanisms, either flux-driven or flux-independent. We also find that the correlation between the narrow Fe line EW and N{sub H} can be well explained by the continuum suppression with increasing N{sub H}. Accounting for the sample incompleteness and bias, we measure the intrinsic distribution of N{sub H} for the CDF-S AGN population and present reselected subsamples that are complete with respect to N{sub H}. The N{sub H}-complete subsamples enable us to decouple the dependences of N{sub H} on L {sub X} and on redshift. Combining our data with those from C-COSMOS, we confirm the anticorrelation between the average N{sub H} and L {sub X} of AGN, and find a significant increase of the AGN-obscured fraction with redshift at any luminosity. The obscured fraction can be described as f{sub obscured}≈0.42 (1+z){sup 0.60}.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2017

Mid-infrared Variability of Changing-look AGNs

It is known that some active galactic nuclei (AGNs) transit from Type 1 to Type 2 or vice versa. There are two explanations for the so-called changing-look AGNs: one is the dramatic change of the obscuration along the line of sight, and the other is the variation of accretion rate. In this Letter, we report the detection of large amplitude variations in the mid-infrared luminosity during the transitions in 10 changing-look AGNs using the Wide-field Infrared Survey Explorer ( WISE ) and newly released Near-Earth Object WISE Reactivation data. The mid-infrared light curves of 10 objects echo the variability in the optical band with a time lag expected for dust reprocessing. The large variability amplitude is inconsistent with the scenario of varying obscuration, rather it supports the scheme of dramatic change in the accretion rate.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2017

Variability and quasi-decadal changes in the methane budget over the period 2000–2012

Following the recent Global Carbon Project (GCP) synthesis of the decadal methane (CH 4 ) budget over 2000–2012 (Saunois et al., 2016), we analyse here the same dataset with a focus on quasi-decadal and inter-annual variability in CH 4 emissions. The GCP dataset integrates results from top-down studies (exploiting atmospheric observations within an atmospheric inverse-modelling framework) and bottom-up models (including process-based models for estimating land surface emissions and atmospheric chemistry), inventories of anthropogenic emissions, and data-driven approaches. The annual global methane emissions from top-down studies, which by construction match the observed methane growth rate within their uncertainties, all show an increase in total methane emissions over the period 2000-2012, but this increase is not linear over the 13 years. Despite differences between individual studies, the mean emission anomaly of the top-down ensemble shows no significant trend in total methane emissions over the period 2000-2006, during the plateau of atmospheric methane mole fractions, and also over the period 2008-2012, during the renewed atmospheric methane increase. However, the top-down ensemble mean produces an emission shift between 2006 and 2008, leading to 22 [16-32]Tg CH 4 yr -1 higher methane emissions over the period 2008-2012 compared to 2002-2006. This emission increase mostly originated from the tropics, with a smaller contribution from mid-latitudes and no significant change from boreal regions. The regional contributions remain uncertain in top-down studies. Tropical South America and South and East Asia seem to contribute the most to the emission increase in the tropics. However, these two regions have only limited atmospheric measurements and remain therefore poorly constrained. The sectorial partitioning of this emission increase between the periods 2002-2006 and 2008-2012 differs from one atmospheric inversion study to another. However, all top-down studies suggest smaller changes in fossil fuel emissions (from oil, gas, and coal industries) compared to the mean of the bottom-up inventories included in this study. This difference is partly driven by a smaller emission change in China from the top-down studies compared to the estimate in the Emission Database for Global Atmospheric Research (EDGARv4.2) inventory, which should be revised to smaller values in a near future. We apply isotopic signatures to the emission changes estimated for individual studies based on five emission sectors and find that for six individual top-down studies (out of eight) the average isotopic signature of the emission changes is not consistent with the observed change in atmospheric 13 CH 4 . However, the partitioning in emission change derived from the ensemble mean is consistent with this isotopic constraint. At the global scale, the top-down ensemble mean suggests that the dominant contribution to the resumed atmospheric CH 4 growth after 2006 comes from microbial sources (more from agriculture and waste sectors than from natural wetlands), with an uncertain but smaller contribution from fossil CH 4 emissions. In addition, a decrease in biomass burning emissions (in agreement with the biomass burning emission databases) makes the balance of sources consistent with atmospheric 13 CH 4 observations. In most of the top-down studies included here, OH concentrations are considered constant over the years (seasonal variations but without any inter-annual variability). As a result, the methane loss (in particular through OH oxidation) varies mainly through the change in methane concentrations and not its oxidants. For these reasons, changes in the methane loss could not be properly investigated in this study, although it may play a significant role in the recent atmospheric methane changes as briefly discussed at the end of the paper.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2019

Quantifying aerosol size distributions and their temporal variability in the Southern Great Plains, USA

A quality-controlled, 5-year dataset of aerosol number size distributions (particles with diameters (Dp) from 7 nm through 14 µm) was developed using observations from a scanning mobility particle sizer, aerodynamic particle sizer, and a condensation particle counter at the Department of Energy's Southern Great Plains (SGP) site. This data set was used for two purposes. First, typical characteristics of the aerosol size distribution (number, surface area, and volume) were calculated for the SGP site, both for the entire dataset and on a seasonal basis, and size distribution lognormal fit parameters are provided. While the median size distributions generally had similar shapes (four lognormal modes) in all the seasons, there were some significant differences between seasons. These differences were most significant in the smallest particles(Dp<30 nm) and largest particles (Dp>800 nm).Second, power spectral analysis was conducted on this long-term dataset to determine key temporal cycles of total aerosol concentrations, as well as aerosol concentrations in specified size ranges. The strongest cyclic signal was associated with a diurnal cycle in total aerosol number concentrations that was driven by the number concentrations of the smallest particles(Dp<30 nm). This diurnal cycle in the smallest particles occurred in all seasons in ~50% of the observations,suggesting a persistent influence of new particle formation events on the number concentrations observed at the SGP site. This finding is in contrast with earlier studies that suggest new particle formation is observed primarily in the springtime at this site. The timing of peak concentrations associated with this diurnal cycle was shifted by several hours depending on the season,which was consistent with seasonal differences in insolation and boundary layer processes. Significant diurnal cycles in number concentrations were also found for particles with Dp between 140 and 800 nm, with peak concentrations occurring in the overnight hours, which were primarily associated with both nitrate and organic aerosol cycles. Weaker cyclic signals were observed for longer timescales (days to weeks) and are hypothesized to be related to the timescales of synoptic weather variability. The strongest periodic signals (3.5–5 and 7 d cycles) for these longer timescales varied depending on the season, with no cyclic signals and the lowest variability in the summer.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Fire–precipitation interactions amplify the quasi-biennial variability in fires over southern Mexico and Central America

Fires have great ecological, social, and economic impact. However, fire prediction and management remain challenges due to a limited understanding of their roles in the Earth system. Fires over southern Mexico and Central America (SMCA) are a good example of this, greatly impacting local air quality and regional climate. Here we report that the spring peak (April–May) of fire activities in this region has a distinct quasi-biennial signal based on multiple satellite datasets measuring different fire characteristics. The variability is initially driven by quasi-biennial variations in precipitation. Composite analysis indicates that strong fire years correspond to suppressed ascending motion and weakened precipitation over the SMCA. The anomalous precipitation over the SMCA is further found to be mostly related to the East Pacific–North Pacific (EP-NP) pattern 2 months prior to the fire season. The positive phase of the EP-NP leads to enhanced precipitation over the eastern US but suppressed precipitation over the SMCA, similar to the spatial pattern of precipitation differences between strong and weak fire years. Meanwhile, the quasi-biennial signals in precipitation and fires appear to be amplified by their interactions through a positive feedback loop at short timescales. Model simulations show that in strong fire years, more aerosol particles are released and transported downstream over the Gulf of Mexico and the eastern US, where suspended light-absorbing aerosols warm the atmosphere and cause the ascending motion of the air aloft. Subsequently, a compensating downward motion is formed over the region of the fire source and ultimately suppresses precipitation and intensifies fires. Statistical analysis shows the different durations of the two-way interaction, where the fire suppression effect of precipitation lasts for more than 20 d, while fire leads to a decrease in precipitation at shorter timescales (3–5 d). This study demonstrates the importance of fire–climate interactions in shaping the fire activities on an interannual scale and highlights how precipitation–fire interactions at short timescales contribute to the interannual variability in both fire and precipitation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

AERO-MAP: a data compilation and modeling approach to understand spatial variability in fine- and coarse-mode aerosol composition

Abstract. Aerosol particles are an important part of the Earth climate system, and their concentrations are spatially and temporally heterogeneous, as well as being variable in size and composition. Particles can interact with incoming solar radiation and outgoing longwave radiation, change cloud properties, affect photochemistry, impact surface air quality, change the albedo of snow and ice, and modulate carbon dioxide uptake by the land and ocean. High particulate matter concentrations at the surface represent an important public health hazard. There are substantial data sets describing aerosol particles in the literature or in public health databases, but they have not been compiled for easy use by the climate and air quality modeling community. Here, we present a new compilation of PM2.5 and PM10 surface observations, including measurements of aerosol composition, focusing on the spatial variability across different observational stations. Climate modelers are constantly looking for multiple independent lines of evidence to verify their models, and in situ surface concentration measurements, taken at the level of human settlement, present a valuable source of information about aerosols and their human impacts complementarily to the column averages or integrals often retrieved from satellites. We demonstrate a method for comparing the data sets to outputs from global climate models that are the basis for projections of future climate and large-scale aerosol transport patterns that influence local air quality. Annual trends and seasonal cycles are discussed briefly and are included in the compilation. Overall, most of the planet or even the land fraction does not have sufficient observations of surface concentrations – and, especially, particle composition – to characterize and understand the current distribution of particles. Climate models without ammonium nitrate aerosols omit ∼ 10 % of the globally averaged surface concentration of aerosol particles in both PM2.5 and PM10 size fractions, with up to 50 % of the surface concentrations not being included in some regions. In these regions, climate model aerosol forcing projections are likely to be incorrect as they do not include important trends in short-lived climate forcers.

Mahowald, Natalie M. (ORCID:000000022873997X)↗
DOE OSTI2018

Estimation of turbulence dissipation rate and its variability from sonic anemometer and wind Doppler lidar during the XPIA field campaign

Despite turbulence being a fundamental transport process in the boundary layer, the capability of current numerical models to represent it is undermined by the limits of the adopted assumptions, notably that of local equilibrium. Here we leverage the potential of extensive observations in determining the variability in turbulence dissipation rate (ϵ). These observations can provide insights towards the understanding of the scales at which the major assumption of local equilibrium between generation and dissipation of turbulence is invalid. Typically, observations of ϵ require time- and labor-intensive measurements from sonic and/or hot-wire anemometers. We explore the capability of wind Doppler lidars to provide measurements of ϵ. We refine and extend an existing method to accommodate different atmospheric stability conditions. To validate our approach, we estimate ϵ from four wind Doppler lidars during the 3-month XPIA campaign at the Boulder Atmospheric Observatory (Colorado), and we assess the uncertainty of the proposed method by data intercomparison with sonic anemometer measurements of ϵ. Our analysis of this extensive dataset provides understanding of the climatology of turbulence dissipation over the course of the campaign. Further, the variability in ϵ with atmospheric stability, height, and wind speed is also assessed. Finally, we present how ϵ increases as nocturnal turbulence is generated during low-level jet events.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2018

MPAS-Albany Land Ice (MALI): a variable-resolution ice sheet model for Earth system modeling using Voronoi grids

Abstract. We introduce MPAS-Albany Land Ice (MALI) v6.0, a new variable-resolution land ice model that uses unstructured Voronoi grids on a plane or sphere. MALI is built using the Model for Prediction Across Scales (MPAS) framework for developing variable-resolution Earth system model components and the Albany multi-physics code base for the solution of coupled systems of partial differential equations, which itself makes use of Trilinos solver libraries. MALI includes a three-dimensional first-order momentum balance solver (Blatter–Pattyn) by linking to the Albany-LI ice sheet velocity solver and an explicit shallow ice velocity solver. The evolution of ice geometry and tracers is handled through an explicit first-order horizontal advection scheme with vertical remapping. The evolution of ice temperature is treated using operator splitting of vertical diffusion and horizontal advection and can be configured to use either a temperature or enthalpy formulation. MALI includes a mass-conserving subglacial hydrology model that supports distributed and/or channelized drainage and can optionally be coupled to ice dynamics. Options for calving include eigencalving , which assumes that the calving rate is proportional to extensional strain rates. MALI is evaluated against commonly used exact solutions and community benchmark experiments and shows the expected accuracy. Results for the MISMIP3d benchmark experiments with MALI's Blatter–Pattyn solver fall between published results from Stokes and L1L2 models as expected. We use the model to simulate a semi-realistic Antarctic ice sheet problem following the initMIP protocol and using 2 km resolution in marine ice sheet regions. MALI is the glacier component of the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) version 1, and we describe current and planned coupling to other E3SM components.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2018

Development and evaluation of a variably saturated flow model in the global E3SM Land Model (ELM) version 1.0

Abstract. Improving global-scale model representations of near-surface soil moisture and groundwater hydrology is important for accurately simulating terrestrial processes and predicting climate change effects on water resources. Most existing land surface models, including the default E3SM Land Model (ELMv0), which we modify here, routinely employ different formulations for water transport in the vadose and phreatic zones. Clark et al. (2015) identified a variably saturated Richards equation flow model as an important capability for improving simulation of coupled soil moisture and shallow groundwater dynamics. In this work, we developed the Variably Saturated Flow Model (VSFM) in ELMv1 to unify the treatment of soil hydrologic processes in the unsaturated and saturated zones. VSFM was tested on three benchmark problems and results were evaluated against observations and an existing benchmark model (PFLOTRAN). The ELMv1-VSFM's subsurface drainage parameter, fd, was calibrated to match an observationally constrained and spatially explicit global water table depth (WTD) product. Optimal spatially explicit fd values were obtained for 79 % of global 1.9∘ × 2.5∘ grid cells, while the remaining 21 % of global grid cells had predicted WTD deeper than the observationally constrained estimate. Comparison with predictions using the default fd value demonstrated that calibration significantly improved predictions, primarily by allowing much deeper WTDs. Model evaluation using the International Land Model Benchmarking package (ILAMB) showed that improvements in WTD predictions did not degrade model skill for any other metrics. We evaluated the computational performance of the VSFM model and found that the model is about 30 % more expensive than the default ELMv0 with an optimal processor layout. The modular software design of VSFM not only provides flexibility to configure the model for a range of problem setups but also allows for building the model independently of the ELM code, thus enabling straightforward testing of the model's physics against other models.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Technical descriptions of the experimental dynamical downscaling simulations over North America by the CAM–MPAS variable-resolution model

Abstract. Comprehensive assessment of climate datasets is important for communicating model projections and associated uncertainties to stakeholders. Uncertainties can arise not only from assumptions and biases within the model but also from external factors such as computational constraint and data processing. To understand sources of uncertainties in global variable-resolution (VR) dynamical downscaling, we produced a regional climate dataset using the Model for Prediction Across Scales (MPAS; dynamical core version 4.0) coupled to the Community Atmosphere Model (CAM; version 5.4), which we refer to as CAM–MPAS hereafter. This document provides technical details of the model configuration, simulations, computational requirements, post-processing, and data archive of the experimental CAM–MPAS downscaling data. The CAM–MPAS model is configured with VR meshes featuring higher resolutions over North America as well as quasi-uniform-resolution meshes across the globe. The dataset includes multiple uniform- (240 and 120 km) and variable-resolution (50–200, 25–100, and 12–46 km) simulations for both the present-day (1990–2010) and future (2080–2100) periods, closely following the protocol of the North American Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment. A deviation from the protocol is the pseudo-warming experiment for the future period, using the ocean boundary conditions produced by adding the sea surface temperature and sea-ice changes from the low-resolution version of the Max Planck Institute Earth System Model (MPI-ESM-LR) in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 to the present-day ocean state from a reanalysis product. Some unique aspects of global VR models are evaluated to provide background knowledge to data users and to explore good practices for modelers who use VR models for regional downscaling. In the coarse-resolution domain, strong resolution sensitivity of the hydrological cycles exists over the tropics but does not appear to affect the midlatitude circulations in the Northern Hemisphere, including the downscaling target of North America. The pseudo-warming experiment leads to similar responses of large-scale circulations to the imposed radiative and boundary forcings in the CAM–MPAS and MPI-ESM-LR models, but their climatological states in the historical period differ over various regions, including North America. Such differences are carried to the future period, suggesting the importance of the base state climatology. Within the refined domain, precipitation statistics improve with higher resolutions, and such statistical inference is verified to be negligibly influenced by horizontal remapping during post-processing. Limited (≈50 % slower) throughput of the current code is found on a recent many-core/wide-vector high-performance computing system, which limits the lengths of the 12–46 km simulations and indirectly affects sampling uncertainty. Our experience shows that global and technical aspects of the VR downscaling framework require further investigations to reduce uncertainties for regional climate projection.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

WRF-Comfort: simulating microscale variability in outdoor heat stress at the city scale with a mesoscale model

Abstract. Urban overheating and its ongoing exacerbation due to global warming and urban development lead to increased exposure to urban heat and increased thermal discomfort and heat stress. To quantify thermal stress, specific indices have been proposed that depend on air temperature, mean radiant temperature (MRT), wind speed, and relative humidity. While temperature and humidity vary on scales of hundreds of meters, MRT and wind speed are strongly affected by individual buildings and trees and vary on the meter scale. Therefore, most numerical thermal comfort studies apply microscale models to limited spatial domains (commonly representing urban neighborhoods with building blocks) with resolutions on the order of 1 m and a few hours of simulation. This prevents the analysis of the impact of city-scale adaptation and/or mitigation strategies on thermal stress and comfort. To solve this problem, we develop a methodology to estimate thermal stress indicators and their subgrid variability in mesoscale models – here applied to the multilayer urban canopy parameterization BEP-BEM within the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. The new scheme (consisting of three main steps) can readily assess intra-neighborhood-scale heat stress distributions across whole cities and for timescales of minutes to years. The first key component of the approach is the estimation of MRT in several locations within streets for different street orientations. Second, mean wind speed and its subgrid variability are downscaled as a function of the local urban morphology based on relations derived from a set of microscale LES and RANS simulations across a wide range of realistic and idealized urban morphologies. Lastly, we compute the distributions of two thermal stress indices for each grid square, combining all the subgrid values of MRT, wind speed, air temperature, and absolute humidity. From these distributions, we quantify the high and low tails of the heat stress distribution in each grid square across the city, representing the thermal diversity experienced in street canyons. In this contribution, we present the core methodology as well as simulation results for Madrid (Spain), which illustrate strong differences between heat stress indices and common heat metrics like air or surface temperature both across the city and over the diurnal cycle.

Geology↗