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NASA NTRS1978

Statistical considerations in design of spacelab experiments

After making an analysis of experimental error sources, statistical models were developed for the design and analysis of potential Space Shuttle experiments. Guidelines for statistical significance and/or confidence limits of expected results were also included. The models were then tested out on the following proposed Space Shuttle biomedical experiments: (1) bone density by computer tomography; (2) basal metabolism; and (3) total body water. Analysis of those results and therefore of the models proved inconclusive due to the lack of previous research data and statistical values. However, the models were seen as possible guides to making some predictions and decisions.

Robinson, J.↗

NASA NTRS2007

Probabilistic Analysis for Comparing Fatigue Data Based on Johnson-Weibull Parameters

Probabilistic failure analysis is essential when analysis of stress-life (S-N) curves is inconclusive in determining the relative ranking of two or more materials. In 1964, L. Johnson published a methodology for establishing the confidence that two populations of data are different. Simplified algebraic equations for confidence numbers were derived based on the original work of L. Johnson. Using the ratios of mean life, the resultant values of confidence numbers deviated less than one percent from those of Johnson. It is possible to rank the fatigue lives of different materials with a reasonable degree of statistical certainty based on combined confidence numbers. These equations were applied to rotating beam fatigue tests that were conducted on three aluminum alloys at three stress levels each. These alloys were AL 2024, AL 6061, and AL 7075. The results were analyzed and compared using ASTM Standard E739-91 and the Johnson-Weibull analysis. The ASTM method did not statistically distinguish between AL 6010 and AL 7075. Based on the Johnson-Weibull analysis confidence numbers greater than 99 percent, AL 2024 was found to have the longest fatigue life, followed by AL 7075, and then AL 6061. The ASTM Standard and the Johnson-Weibull analysis result in the same stress-life exponent p for each of the three aluminum alloys at the median or L(sub 50) lives.

Hendricks, Robert C.↗

DOE OSTI2020

Weak Lensing And Cosmology In The Dark Energy Survey

In this PhD Thesis, we present studies which aim at understanding and testing the fundamental assumptions of the $\Lambda$CDM cosmological model. We initially show that weak gravitational lensing can be derived as a consequence of General Relativity, and that it can be applied to astronomical data from the Dark Energy Survey (DES) in order to constrain the amplitude of matter fluctuations in the universe. This constraint can be used as an end-to-end cosmological test when it is compared to inferences from the Cosmic Microwave Background. We further extend the cosmological model to account for non-standard parameters which can point to novel physics, and use DES data to assess their statistical significance. We finally show that the Cold Dark Matter (CDM) paradigm can also be fundamentally tested with observational data using morphological signatures of disk galaxies in cluster environments if CDM is self-interacting.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2018

Neutron and Thermal Embrittlement of RPV Steels: An Overview

Because the reactor pressure vessel (RPV) represents the first structural line of defense against the release of radiation to the public, the design and fabrication of the RPV for any nuclear reactor facility is performed at very high standards in accordance with consensus codes that are based on mechanical and physical properties of the steels used to construct the vessel. Nuclear RPVs may weigh up to 800 tons with wall thicknesses up to approximately 330 mm and are clad on the inside with stainless-steel weld metal and given a final post-weld heat treatment. The RPV is a unique structural component in that it operates under high pressures and temperatures and is exposed to relatively high neutron radiation. Although typical RPV steels and welds have excellent fracture toughness at room temperature and above when put into service, the degrading effects of high-energy neutron irradiation can cause levels of irradiation-induced embrittlement in radiation-sensitive materials of concern for the structural integrity of the RPV. In recent decades, remarkable progress has been made in developing a mechanistic understanding of irradiation embrittlement. This progress includes developing physically based and statistically calibrated models of Charpy V-notch-indexed transition temperature shifts based on results from RPV surveillance programs complemented by significant results from comprehensive research experiments performed in test reactors. In addition, advances in elastic-plastic fracture mechanics allow for a relatively small number of relatively small specimens to characterize the fracture toughness of RPV steels with statistical confidence. This paper presents a review of the primary mechanical properties, test procedures, examples of applicable codes and standards, and specimen types used to characterize RPV steels and welds, the effects of neutron irradiation on those most relevant mechanical properties, and a brief review of the effects of thermal aging on RPV materials. The paper closes with a summary.

Nanstad, Randy K.↗

DOE OSTI2019

Impact of non-specific normal databases on perfusion quantification of low-dose myocardial SPECT studies

Aim: To evaluate the impact of non-specific normal databases on the percent summed rest score (SR%) and stress score (SS%) from simulated low-dose SPECT studies by shortening the acquisition time/projection. Methods: Forty normal-weight and 40 overweight/obese patients underwent myocardial studies with a conventional gamma-camera (BrightView, Philips) using three different acquisition times/projection: 30, 15, and 8 s (100%-counts, 50%-counts, and 25%-counts scan, respectively) and reconstructed using the iterative algorithm with resolution recovery (IRR) Astonish{sup TM} (Philips). Three sets of normal databases were used: (1) full-counts IRR; (2) half-counts IRR; and (3) full-counts traditional reconstruction algorithm database (TRAD). The impact of these databases and the acquired count statistics on the SR% and SS% was assessed by ANOVA analysis and Tukey test (P < 0.05). Results: Significantly higher SR% and SS% values (> 40%) were found for the full-counts TRAD databases respect to the IRR databases. For overweight/obese patients, significantly higher SS% values for 25%-counts scans (+19%) are confirmed compared to those of 50%-counts scan, independently of using the half-counts or the full-counts IRR databases. Conclusions: Astonish{sup TM} requires the adoption of the own specific normal databases in order to prevent very high overestimation of both stress and rest perfusion scores. Conversely, the count statistics of the normal databases seems not to influence the quantification scores.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗

NASA NTRS1999

Problems Associated with Statistical Pattern Recognition of Acoustic Emission Signals in a Compact Tension Fatigue Specimen

Acoustic emission (AE) data were acquired during fatigue testing of an aluminum 2024-T4 compact tension specimen using a commercially available AE system. AE signals from crack extension were identified and separated from noise spikes, signals that reflected from the specimen edges, and signals that saturated the instrumentation. A commercially available software package was used to train a statistical pattern recognition system to classify the signals. The software trained a network to recognize signals with a 91-percent accuracy when compared with the researcher's interpretation of the data. Reasons for the discrepancies are examined and it is postulated that additional preprocessing of the AE data to focus on the extensional wave mode and eliminate other effects before training the pattern recognition system will result in increased accuracy.

Hinton, Yolanda L.↗

NASA NTRS1985

Extended testing of a general contextual classifier using the massively parallel processor - Preliminary results and test plans

Earlier encouraging test results of a contextual classifier that combines spatial and spectral information employing a general statistical approach are expanded. The earlier results were of limited meaning because they were produced from small (50-by-50 pixel) data sets. An implementation of the contextual classifier on NASA Goddard's Massively Parallel Processor (MPP) is presented; for the first time the MPP makes feasible the testing of the classifier on large data sets (a 12-hour test on a VAX-11/780 minicomputer now takes 5 minutes on the MPP). The MPP is a Single-Instruction, Multiple Data Stream computer, consisting of 16,384 bit serial microprocessors connected in a 128-by-128 mesh array with each element having data transfer connections with its four nearest neighbors so that the MPP is capable of billions of operations per second. Preliminary results are given (with more expected for the conference) and plans are mentioned for extended testing of the contextual classifier on Thematic Mapper data sets.

Tilton, J. C.↗

NASA NTRS2014

The Atacama Cosmology Telescope: Temperature and Gravitational Lensing Power Spectrum Measurements from Three Seasons of Data

We present the temperature power spectra of the cosmic microwave background (CMB) derived from the three seasons of data from the Atacama Cosmology Telescope (ACT) at 148 GHz and 218 GHz, as well as the cross-frequency spectrum between the two channels. We detect and correct for contamination due to the Galactic cirrus in our equatorial maps. We present the results of a number of tests for possible systematic error and conclude that any effects are not significant compared to the statistical errors we quote. Where they overlap, we cross-correlate the ACT and the South Pole Telescope (SPT) maps and show they are consistent. The measurements of higher-order peaks in the CMB power spectrum provide an additional test of the ΛCDM cosmological model, and help constrain extensions beyond the standard model. The small angular scale power spectrum also provides constraining power on the Sunyaev-Zel'dovich effects and extragalactic foregrounds. We also present a measurement of the CMB gravitational lensing convergence power spectrum at 4.6σ detection significance.

Atacama Cosmology Telescope (ACT)↗

DOE OSTI2023

Detection of the significant impact of source clustering on higher order statistics with DES Year 3 weak gravitational lensing data

We measure the impact of source galaxy clustering on higher order summary statistics of weak gravitational lensing data. By comparing simulated data with galaxies that either trace or do not trace the underlying density field, we show that this effect can exceed measurement uncertainties for common higher order statistics for certain analysis choices. We evaluate the impact on different weak lensing observables, finding that third moments and wavelet phase harmonics are more affected than peak count statistics. Using Dark Energy Survey (DES) Year 3 (Y3) data, we construct null tests for the source-clustering-free case, finding a p-value of p = 4 × 10 −3 (2.6σ) using third-order map moments and p = 3 × 10 −11 (6.5σ) using wavelet phase harmonics. The impact of source clustering on cosmological inference can be either included in the model or minimized through ad hoc procedures (e.g. scale cuts). We verify that the procedures adopted in existing DES Y3 cosmological analyses were sufficient to render this effect negligible. Failing to account for source clustering can significantly impact cosmological inference from higher order gravitational lensing statistics, e.g. higher order N-point functions, wavelet-moment observables, and deep learning or field-level summary statistics of weak lensing maps.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2021

An initial framework for the rapid qualification of long-term creep rupture strength via microstructural modeling

This report describes the development and testing of a new method for extrapolating short-term creep rupture test data to predict long-term rupture strength. The goal of this work is to reduce the time required to qualify new materials for nuclear service by reducing the lead time required for dedicated, long-term material testing to establish key long-term material properties. The new approach described here uses a physics-based model to predict the long-term creep rupture strength of 316H stainless steel using only short-term test data. The key idea is to use Bayesian inference to find the statistical distribution of the model parameters that best explain the short-term rupture data. Because the model is physics-based these parameters are all microstructural quantities that can be measured through detailed material characterization experiments. The Bayesian prior distributions provide a means for incorporating this characterization data into the final model to improve the accuracy of the long-term model predictions. However, where such data is not available the process still produces an accurate model based on an uniformed prior. Our hypothesis is that this approach more accurately extrapolates the short-term test data when compared to current, empirical methods. The report proves this hypothesis using actual long-term rupture data available for 316H, including tests with rupture times greater than 200,000 hours. The general approach developed here could be applied to other materials and other time-dependent material properties. Applying this new technique to develop long-term qualified material properties, potentially in conjunction with other accelerated qualification approaches like staggered qualification test programs, could greatly reduce the time required to qualify new materials for nuclear service.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

NASA NTRS1983

A survey of inlet/engine distortion compatibility

The history of distortion analysis is traced back to its origin in parallel compressor theory which was initially proposed in the late fifties. The development of this theory is reviewed up to its inclusion in the complex computer codes of today. It is found to be a very useful tool to guide development but not quantitative enough to predict compatibility. Dynamic or instantaneous distortion methodology is also reviewed from its origins in the sixties, to its current application in the eighties. Many of the requirements for interpreting instantaneous distortion are considered and illustrated. Statistical methods for predicting the peak distortion are described, and their limitations and advantages discussed. Finally, some Reynolds number and scaling considerations for inlet testing are considered. It is concluded that the deterministic instantaneous distortion methodology combined with distortion testing of engines with screens will remain the primary method of predicting compatibility for the near future. However, parallel compressor analysis and statistical peak distortion prediction will be important tools employed during the development of inlet/engine compatibility.

Bowditch, D. N.↗

NASA NTRS1983

A survey of inlet/engine distortion compatibility

Bowditch, D. N.↗

NASA NTRS2001

Mode-Stirred Method Implementation for HIRF Susceptibility Testing and Results Comparison with Anechoic Method

This paper describes the implementation of mode-stirred method for susceptibility testing according to the current DO-160D standard. Test results on an Engine Data Processor using the implemented procedure and the comparisons with the standard anechoic test results are presented. The comparison experimentally shows that the susceptibility thresholds found in mode-stirred method are consistently higher than anechoic. This is consistent with the recent statistical analysis finding by NIST that the current calibration procedure overstates field strength by a fixed amount. Once the test results are adjusted for this value, the comparisons with the anechoic results are excellent. The results also show that test method has excellent chamber to chamber repeatability. Several areas for improvements to the current procedure are also identified and implemented.

Nguyen, Truong X.↗

DOE OSTI2021

Unraveling the discontinuous plastic flow of a Co-Cr-Fe-Ni-Mo multiprincipal-element alloy at deep cryogenic temperatures

We report an analysis of the discontinuous plastic flow of a multiprincipal-element alloy, Co 17.5 Cr 12.5 Fe 55 Ni 10 Mo 5 (atomic percent, at. %), in the temperature range of 0.5–4.2 K showing serrated deformation curves. Using the analytical techniques, we studied the statistics of the stress drops associated with the unstable plastic flow. The analysis showed that the complexity and heterogeneity of a discontinuous plastic flow were reduced when the temperature was lowered. This behavior was associated with the effects of dynamic recovery and adiabatic heating on the dislocation-density evolution.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2017

Behavior-based approach to misuse detection of a simulated SCADA system - 339

This paper presents the initial findings in applying a behavior-based approach for detection of unauthorized activities in a simulated Supervisory Control and Data Acquisition (SCADA) system. Misuse detection of this type utilizes fault-free system telemetry to develop empirical models that learn normal system behavior. Future monitored telemetry sources that show statistically significant deviations from this learned behavior may indicate an attack or other unwanted actions. The experimental test bed consists of a set of Linux based enterprise servers that were isolated from a larger university research cluster. All servers are connected to a private network and simulate several components and tasks seen in a typical SCADA system. Telemetry sources included kernel statistics, resource usages and internal system hardware measurements. For this study, the Auto Associative Kernel Regression (AAKR) and Auto Associative Multivariate State Estimation Technique (AAMSET) are employed to develop empirical models. Prognostic efficacy of these methods for computer security used several groups of signals taken from available telemetry classes. The Sequential Probability Ratio Test (SPRT) is used along with these models for intrusion detection purposes. The different intrusion types shown include host/network discovery, DoS, brute force login, privilege escalation and malicious exfiltration actions. For this study, all intrusion types tested displayed alterations in the residuals of much of the monitored telemetry and were able to be detected in all signal groups used by both model types. The methods presented can be extended and implemented to industries besides nuclear that use SCADA or business-critical networks. (authors)

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

DOE OSTI2021

A probabilistic creep model incorporating test condition, initial damage, and material property uncertainty

Uncertainty is prevalent in the creep resistance of alloys, where at elevated temperature and low pressure, rupture can range across logarithmic decades. In this study, a probabilistic continuum-damage-mechanics (CDM)-based model is derived to capture the uncertainty of creep resistance. To meet this objective, creep data for alloy 304 Stainless Steel is gathered. A constitutive model, “Sinh”, is calibrated deterministically to determine the statistical variability of the material properties. Three sources of uncertainty are injected into the model: test condition (stress and temperature), initial damage, and material properties. Probabilistic simulations are carried out by (a) calibrating probability distribution functions (pdfs) for each source of uncertainty (b) randomly sampling the pdfs using Monte Carlo methods and (c) executing simulations to replicate the uncertain creep behavior. A sensitivity analysis is performed to evaluate the relative effect of each source of uncertainty. In full probabilistic simulations, the cumulative uncertainty of creep behavior is evaluated. The probabilistic model accurately predicts the creep deformation and rupture of the available experiments. The probabilistic model is validated for interpolation but lacks extrapolation ability. Several future works are proposed to further improve the model.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

NASA NTRS1993

Design of partially supervised classifiers for multispectral image data

A partially supervised classification problem is addressed, especially when the class definition and corresponding training samples are provided a priori only for just one particular class. In practical applications of pattern classification techniques, a frequently observed characteristic is the heavy, often nearly impossible requirements on representative prior statistical class characteristics of all classes in a given data set. Considering the effort in both time and man-power required to have a well-defined, exhaustive list of classes with a corresponding representative set of training samples, this 'partially' supervised capability would be very desirable, assuming adequate classifier performance can be obtained. Two different classification algorithms are developed to achieve simplicity in classifier design by reducing the requirement of prior statistical information without sacrificing significant classifying capability. The first one is based on optimal significance testing, where the optimal acceptance probability is estimated directly from the data set. In the second approach, the partially supervised classification is considered as a problem of unsupervised clustering with initially one known cluster or class. A weighted unsupervised clustering procedure is developed to automatically define other classes and estimate their class statistics. The operational simplicity thus realized should make these partially supervised classification schemes very viable tools in pattern classification.

Jeon, Byeungwoo↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Supersonic Free-Flight Dynamics Testing in the Stratosphere

A new technique for obtaining stratospheric free-flight dynamics data for atmospheric entry capsules is described. The Stratospheric Projectile Experiment of Entry Dynamics (SPEED) represents a new approach to characterizing the free-flight dynamics of vehicles in the supersonic and transonic regime of flight. The SPEED test architecture leverages a stratospheric balloon and 3D-printed flight system in a novel two-stage configuration to deliver test articles to supersonic conditions in the atmosphere which achieve dynamic similitude with a full-scale vehicle. Designed to address the limitations of existing test facilities, SPEED captures the complete time evolution of a vehicle’s dynamic state while producing a statistically significant number of observed flight trajectories to address the stochastic nature of the wake-driven dynamic stability phenomenon. SPEED was developed over two years at NASA Ames Research Center. The inaugural flight of the SPEED test platform was conducted in the summer of 2024 where scaled capsules of the Mars Sample Return Earth Entry System and Dragonfly entry vehicle were tested. This paper describes the motivation for a new test architecture, operational constraints and achievable flight test envelopes, the design and development of the SPEED concept, and results from the demonstration flight. Techniques for estimating the dynamic aerodynamic characteristics and atmospheric conditions for each test article individually and as a collective are also discussed.

Entry Vehicle↗