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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 1,657 records · Page 92
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2020

Dynamical model for social distancing in the U.S. during the COVID-19 epidemic

Social distancing has led to a “flattening of the curve” in many states across the U.S. This is part of a novel, massive, global social experiment which has served to mitigate the COVID-19 pandemic in the absence of a vaccine or effective anti-viral drugs. Hence it is important to be able to forecast hospitalizations reasonably accurately. We propose on phenomenological grounds a random walk/generalized diffusion equation which incorporates the effect of social distancing to describe the temporal evolution of the probability of having a given number of hospitalizations. The probability density function is log-normal in the number of hospitalizations, which is useful in describing pandemics where the number of hospitalizations is very high. We used this insight and data to make forecasts for states using Monte Carlo methods. Back testing validates our approach, which yields good results about a week into the future. States are beginning to reopen at the time of submission of this paper and our forecasts indicate possible precursors of increased hospitalizations. However, the trends we forecast for hospitalizations as well as infections thus far show moderate growth. Additionally we studied the reproducibility in New York (Italian strain) and California (Wuhan strain). We find that even if there is a difference in the transmission of the two strains, social distancing has been able to control the progression of COVID 19.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2015

Fully Autonomous Multiplet Event Detection: Application to Local-Distance Monitoring of Blood Falls Seismicity

We apply a fully autonomous icequake detection methodology to a single day of high-sample rate (200 Hz) seismic network data recorded from the terminus of Taylor Glacier, ANT that temporally coincided with a brine release episode near Blood Falls (May 13, 2014). We demonstrate a statistically validated procedure to assemble waveforms triggered by icequakes into populations of clusters linked by intra-event waveform similarity. Our processing methodology implements a noise-adaptive power detector coupled with a complete-linkage clustering algorithm and noise-adaptive correlation detector. This detector-chain reveals a population of 20 multiplet sequences that includes ~150 icequakes and produces zero false alarms on the concurrent, diurnally variable noise. Our results are very promising for identifying changes in background seismicity associated with the presence or absence of brine release episodes. We thereby suggest that our methodology could be applied to longer time periods to establish a brine-release monitoring program for Blood Falls that is based on icequake detections.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2015

Lung motion estimation using dynamic point shifting: An innovative model based on a robust point matching algorithm

Purpose: Image-guided radiotherapy is an advanced 4D radiotherapy technique that has been developed in recent years. However, respiratory motion causes significant uncertainties in image-guided radiotherapy procedures. To address these issues, an innovative lung motion estimation model based on a robust point matching is proposed in this paper. Methods: An innovative robust point matching algorithm using dynamic point shifting is proposed to estimate patient-specific lung motion during free breathing from 4D computed tomography data. The correspondence of the landmark points is determined from the Euclidean distance between the landmark points and the similarity between the local images that are centered at points at the same time. To ensure that the points in the source image correspond to the points in the target image during other phases, the virtual target points are first created and shifted based on the similarity between the local image centered at the source point and the local image centered at the virtual target point. Second, the target points are shifted by the constrained inverse function mapping the target points to the virtual target points. The source point set and shifted target point set are used to estimate the transformation function between the source image and target image. Results: The performances of the authors’ method are evaluated on two publicly available DIR-lab and POPI-model lung datasets. For computing target registration errors on 750 landmark points in six phases of the DIR-lab dataset and 37 landmark points in ten phases of the POPI-model dataset, the mean and standard deviation by the authors’ method are 1.11 and 1.11 mm, but they are 2.33 and 2.32 mm without considering image intensity, and 1.17 and 1.19 mm with sliding conditions. For the two phases of maximum inhalation and maximum exhalation in the DIR-lab dataset with 300 landmark points of each case, the mean and standard deviation of target registration errors on the 3000 landmark points of ten cases by the authors’ method are 1.21 and 1.04 mm. In the EMPIRE10 lung registration challenge, the authors’ method ranks 24 of 39. According to the index of the maximum shear stretch, the authors’ method is also efficient to describe the discontinuous motion at the lung boundaries. Conclusions: By establishing the correspondence of the landmark points in the source phase and the other target phases combining shape matching and image intensity matching together, the mismatching issue in the robust point matching algorithm is adequately addressed. The target registration errors are statistically reduced by shifting the virtual target points and target points. The authors’ method with consideration of sliding conditions can effectively estimate the discontinuous motion, and the estimated motion is natural. The primary limitation of the proposed method is that the temporal constraints of the trajectories of voxels are not introduced into the motion model. However, the proposed method provides satisfactory motion information, which results in precise tumor coverage by the radiation dose during radiotherapy.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2015

Enhanced resting-state dynamics of the hemoglobin signal as a novel biomarker for detection of breast cancer

Purpose: The work presented here demonstrates an application of diffuse optical tomography (DOT) to the problem of breast-cancer diagnosis. The potential for using spatial and temporal variability measures of the hemoglobin signal to identify useful biomarkers was studied. Methods: DOT imaging data were collected using two instrumentation platforms the authors developed, which were suitable for exploring tissue dynamics while performing a simultaneous bilateral exam. For each component of the hemoglobin signal (e.g., total, oxygenated), the image time series was reduced to eight scalar metrics that were affected by one or more dynamic properties of the breast microvasculature (e.g., average amplitude, amplitude heterogeneity, strength of spatial coordination). Receiver-operator characteristic (ROC) analyses, comparing groups of subjects with breast cancer to various control groups (i.e., all noncancer subjects, only those with diagnosed benign breast pathology, and only those with no known breast pathology), were performed to evaluate the effect of cancer on the magnitudes of the metrics and of their interbreast differences and ratios. Results: For women with known breast cancer, simultaneous bilateral DOT breast measures reveal a marked increase in the resting-state amplitude of the vasomotor response in the hemoglobin signal for the affected breast, compared to the contralateral, noncancer breast. Reconstructed 3D spatial maps of observed dynamics also show that this behavior extends well beyond the tumor border. In an effort to identify biomarkers that have the potential to support clinical aims, a group of scalar quantities extracted from the time series measures was systematically examined. This analysis showed that many of the quantities obtained by computing paired responses from the bilateral scans (e.g., interbreast differences, ratios) reveal statistically significant differences between the cancer-positive and -negative subject groups, while the corresponding measures derived from individual breast scans do not. ROC analyses yield area-under-curve values in the 77%–87% range, depending on the metric, with sensitivity and specificity values ranging from 66% to 91%. An interesting result is the initially unexpected finding that the hemodynamic-image metrics are only weakly dependent on the tumor burden, implying that the DOT technique employed is sensitive to tumor-induced changes in the vascular dynamics of the surrounding breast tissue as well. Computational modeling studies serve to identify which properties of the vasomotor response (e.g., average amplitude, amplitude heterogeneity, and phase heterogeneity) principally determine the values of the metrics and their codependences. Findings from the modeling studies also serve to clarify the influence of spatial-response heterogeneity and of system-design limitations, and they reveal the impact that a complex dependence of metric values on the modeled behaviors has on the success in distinguishing between cancer-positive and -negative subjects. Conclusions: The authors identified promising hemoglobin-based biomarkers for breast cancer from measures of the resting-state dynamics of the vascular bed. A notable feature of these biomarkers is that their spatial extent encompasses a large fraction of the breast volume, which is mainly independent of tumor size. Tumor-induced induction of nitric oxide synthesis, a well-established concomitant of many breast cancers, is offered as a plausible biological causal factor for the reported findings.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

A proposed framework for the development and qualitative evaluation of West Nile virus models and their application to local public health decision-making

West Nile virus (WNV) is a globally distributed mosquito-borne virus of great public health concern. The number of WNV human cases and mosquito infection patterns vary in space and time. Many statistical models have been developed to understand and predict WNV geographic and temporal dynamics. However, these modeling efforts have been disjointed with little model comparison and inconsistent validation. In this paper, we describe a framework to unify and standardize WNV modeling efforts nationwide. WNV risk, detection, or warning models for this review were solicited from active research groups working in different regions of the United States. A total of 13 models were selected and described. The spatial and temporal scales of each model were compared to guide the timing and the locations for mosquito and virus surveillance, to support mosquito vector control decisions, and to assist in conducting public health outreach campaigns at multiple scales of decision-making. Our overarching goal is to bridge the existing gap between model development, which is usually conducted as an academic exercise, and practical model applications, which occur at state, tribal, local, or territorial public health and mosquito control agency levels. The proposed model assessment and comparison framework helps clarify the value of individual models for decision-making and identifies the appropriate temporal and spatial scope of each model. This qualitative evaluation clearly identifies gaps in linking models to applied decisions and sets the stage for a quantitative comparison of models. Specifically, whereas many coarse-grained models (county resolution or greater) have been developed, the greatest need is for fine-grained, short-term planning models (m–km, days–weeks) that remain scarce. We further recommend quantifying the value of information for each decision to identify decisions that would benefit most from model input.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Evaluation of artificial neural network performance for classification of potato plants infected with potato virus Y using spectral data on multiple varieties and genotypes

Potato virus Y (Potyviridae, PVY) is a plant virus that poses a significant threat to potato producers on a global basis. The pathogen has disrupted seed potato supplies and negatively impacted yield and quality of commercial potato crops. The potato industry currently manages PVY infection levels via insecticide applications, regional seed certification programs that rely on field scouting to visually assess individual plants for infection status, and destructive and costly tissue sampling coupled with laboratory assays. Despite these efforts, PVY continues to confound potato industry stakeholders resulting in economic harm. Remote sensing and machine learning provide for the development of new tools to more accurately detect and spatially quantify PVY-infected plants versus the current state of the art. However, there is a need to understand how the occurrence of many different potato varieties impact the dynamics of developing models to detect potato plants impacted with PVY and their potential effectiveness. This study evaluates classification modelling outcomes using spectral datasets collected in different temporal and spatial environments (greenhouse and a production field) on multiple potato varieties consisting of labelled instances of plants infected with PVY and those not infected with the virus. A modelling framework was developed to support iterative modelling runs using artificial neural network (ANN) architectures configured as binary classifiers to develop sample populations to support statistical analysis on model performance using specific spectral subsets. When using spectral data to detect PVY-infected plants, ANN models achieved the highest mean accuracy of 0.894 on a single variety. Conversely, the same ANN model architecture only achieved a mean accuracy of 0.575 on a spectral data set representing 29 potato breeding lines. Additionally, statistical analysis indicates spectral regions including the red edge, near infrared and shortwave infrared contain more important spectral features for the ANN classifier introduced in this research.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Reinforcement learning for online adaptation of model predictive controllers: Application to a selective catalytic reduction unit

Here we present a novel application of reinforcement learning (RL) for online dynamic tuning of model predictive controllers (MPC). Applying a state-action-reward-state-action (SARSA) algorithm for temporal difference learning with a control-specific reward function improves the error tracking performance of a standard MPC formulation. The proposed RL approach is also readily adaptable to other MPCs, or entirely different control approaches. Practical details for the implementation of the RL-MPC algorithm are also presented. The proposed algorithm is applied to a case study of controlling nitrogen oxide (NO x ) emissions in an industrial selective catalytic reduction (SCR) unit, a control problem characterized by significant nonlinearity and time delay. Along with an RL-MPC formulation for NOx control, another MPC is proposed to mitigate ammonia slip and decrease ammonia consumption in the SCR. Results showing the efficacy of the RL-MPC for NO x control through learning and implementation on the nonlinear SCR dynamic model are presented.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2021

Self-similar Reynolds-averaged mechanical–scalar turbulence models for Rayleigh–Taylor, Richtmyer–Meshkov, and Kelvin–Helmholtz instability-induced mixing in the small Atwood number limit

Analytical self-similar solutions to two-, three-, and four-equation Reynolds-averaged mechanical–scalar turbulence models describing incompressible turbulent Rayleigh–Taylor, Richtmyer–Meshkov, and Kelvin–Helmholtz instability-induced mixing in planar geometry are derived in the small Atwood number (Boussinesq) limit. The models are based on the turbulent kinetic energy K and its dissipation rate ε, together with the scalar (heavy-fluid mass fraction) variance S and its dissipation rate Χ modeled either differentially or algebraically. The models allow for a simultaneous description of mechanical and scalar mixing, i.e., mixing layer growth and molecular mixing, respectively. Mixing layer growth parameters and other physical observables relevant to each instability are obtained explicitly as functions of the model coefficients. The turbulent fields are also expressed in terms of the model coefficients, with their temporal power-law scalings obtained by requiring that the self-similar equations are explicitly time-independent. The model calibration methodology is described and discussed. Expressions for a subset of the various physical observables are used to calibrate each of the two-, three-, and four-equation models, such that the self-similar solutions are consistent with experimental and numerical simulation data corresponding to these values of the observables and to specific canonical Rayleigh–Taylor, Richtmyer–Meshkov, and Kelvin–Helmholtz turbulent flows. A calibrated four-equation model is then used to reconstruct the mean and turbulent fields, and late-time turbulent equation budgets for each instability-induced flow across the mixing layer. The reference solutions derived here can provide systematic calibrations and better understanding of mechanical–scalar turbulence models and their predictions for instability-induced turbulent mixing in the very large Reynolds number limit.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2019

Predicting CO 2 Plume Migration in Heterogeneous Formations Using Conditional Deep Convolutional Generative Adversarial Network

Numerical simulation of flow and transport in heterogeneous formations has long been studied, especially for uncertainty quantification and risk assessment. The high computational cost associated with running large-scale numerical simulations in a Monte Carlo sense has motivated the development of surrogate models, which aim to capture the important input-output relations of physics-based models but require only a fraction of the cost of full model runs. In this work, we formulate a conditional deep convolutional generative adversarial network (cDC-GAN) surrogate model to learn the dynamic functional mappings in multiphase models. The cDC-GAN belongs to a class of semisupervised learning methods that can be used to learn the data generation processes. Like the original GAN, a main strength of the cDC-GAN is that it includes a self-training scheme for improving the quality of generative modeling in a game theoretic framework, without requiring extensive statistical knowledge and assumptions on input data distributions. In particular, our cDC-GAN model is designed to learn cross-domain mappings between high-dimensional input (e.g., permeability) and output (e.g., phase saturations) pairs, with the ability to incorporate conditioning information (e.g., prediction time). As a use case, we demonstrate the performance of cDC-GAN for predicting the migration of carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) plume in heterogeneous carbon storage reservoirs, which has both numerical and practical significance because of the safe storage requirements now mandated in many countries. Results show that cDC-GAN achieves high accuracy in predicting the spatial and temporal evolution patterns of the injected CO 2 plume, as compared to the original results obtained using a compositional reservoir simulator. The performance of cDC-GAN models, trained using the same number of training samples, stays relatively robust when the level of spatial heterogeneity is increased. Our cDC-GAN is pattern based and is not limited by the underlying physics. Thus, it provides a general framework for developing surrogate models, and for conducting uncertainty analyses for a wide range of physics-based models used in both groundwater and subsurface energy exploration applications.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2015

How does the connectivity of open-framework conglomerates within multi-scale hierarchical fluvial architecture affect oil-sweep efficiency in waterflooding?

Understanding multi-phase fluid flow and transport processes within aquifers, candidate reservoirs for CO 2 sequestration, and petroleum reservoirs requires understanding a diverse set of geologic properties of the aquifer or reservoir, over a wide range of spatial and temporal scales. We focus on multiphase flow dynamics with wetting (e.g., water) and non-wetting (e.g., gas or oil) fluids, with one invading another. This problem is of general interest in a number of fields and is illustrated here by considering the sweep efficiency of oil during a waterflood. Using a relatively fine-resolution grid throughout a relatively large domain in these simulations and probing the results with advanced scientific visualization tools (Reservoir Visualization Analysis [RVA]/ ParaView software) promote a better understanding of how smaller-scale features affect the aggregate behavior at larger scales. We studied the effects on oil-sweep efficiency of the proportion, hierarchical organization, and connectivity of high-permeability open-framework conglomerate (OFC) cross-sets within the multi-scale stratal architecture found in fluvial deposits. We further analyzed oil production rate, water breakthrough time, and spatial and temporal distribution of residual oil saturation. As expected, the effective permeability of the reservoir exhibits large-scale anisotropy created by the organization of OFC cross-sets within unit bars, and the organization of unit bars within compound- bars. As a result, oil-sweep efficiency critically depends on the direction of the pressure gradient. However, contrary to expectations, the total amount of trapped oil due to the effect of capillary trapping does not depend on the magnitude of the pressure gradient within the examined range. Hence the pressure difference between production and injection wells does not affect sweep efficiency; although the spatial distribution of oil remaining in the reservoir depends on this value. Whether or not clusters of connected OFC span the domain affects only the absolute rate of oil production—not sweep efficiency.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Addressing Issues with Working Memory in Video Object Segmentation

Contemporary state-of-the-art video object segmentation (VOS) models compare incoming unannotated images to a history of image-mask relations via affinity or cross-attention to predict object masks. We refer to the internal memory state of the initial image-mask pair and past image-masks as a working memory buffer. While the current state of the art models perform very well on clean video data, their reliance on a working memory of previous frames leaves room for error. Affinity-based algorithms include the inductive bias that there is temporal continuity between consecutive frames. To account for inconsistent camera views of the desired object, working memory models need an algorithmic modification that regulates the memory updates and avoid writing irrelevant frames into working memory. A simple algorithmic change is proposed that can be applied to any existing working memory-based VOS model to improve performance on inconsistent views, such as sudden camera cuts, frame interjections, and extreme context changes. The resulting model performances show significant improvement on video data with these frame interjections over the same model without the algorithmic addition. Our contribution is a simple decision function that determines whether working memory should be updated based on the detection of sudden, extreme changes and the assumption that the object is no longer in frame. By implementing algorithmic changes, such as this, we can increase the real-world applicability of current VOS models.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2025

Edge ML for CAN bus intrusion detection in AVs

Autonomous Vehicles (AVs) are revolutionizing transportation, but their reliance on interconnected cyber-physical systems exposes them to unprecedented cybersecurity risks. This study addresses the critical challenge of detecting real-time cyber intrusions in self-driving vehicles by leveraging a dataset from the Udacity self-driving car project. We simulate four high-impact attack vectors, Denial of Service (DoS), spoofing, replay, and fuzzy attacks, by injecting noise into spatial features (e.g., bounding box coordinates) to replicate adversarial scenarios. We develop and evaluate two lightweight neural network architectures (NN-1 and NN-2) alongside a logistic regression baseline (LG-1) for intrusion detection. The models achieve exceptional performance, with NN-2 attaining an AUC score of 93.15% and 93.15% accuracy, demonstrating their suitability for edge deployment in AV environments. Through explainable AI techniques, we uncover unique forensic fingerprints of each attack type, such as spatial corruption in fuzzy attacks and temporal anomalies in replay attacks, offering actionable insights for feature engineering and proactive defense. Visual analytics, including confusion matrices, ROC curves, and feature importance plots, validate the models' robustness and interpretability. This research sets a new benchmark for AV cybersecurity, delivering a scalable, field-ready toolkit for Original Equipment Manufacturers (OEMs) and policymakers. By aligning intrusion fingerprints with SAE J3061 automotive security standards, we provide a pathway for integrating machine learning into safety-critical AV systems. Our findings underscore the urgent need for security-by-design AI, ensuring that AVs not only drive autonomously but also defend autonomously. This work bridges the gap between theoretical cybersecurity and life-preserving engineering, offering a leap toward safer, more secure autonomous transportation.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2025

Second-generation downscaled earth system model data using generative machine learning

The second-generation Sup3rCC dataset provides high-resolution meteorological data generated through the downscaling of multiple earth system models (ESMs) from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6). This downscaling is performed through application of a generative machine learning approach called Super-Resolution for Renewable Resource Data (sup3r). This dataset builds on the first-generation Sup3rCC data by applying improved bias correction methods and adding downscaled precipitation to the output variables. As with the first Sup3rCC version, the data still include temperature, wind speed and direction at multiple heights, pressure, three components of downwelling solar radiation, and relative humidity—all at 4-kilometer (km) hourly resolution over the contiguous United States. This is a 25x spatial enhancement and 24x temporal enhancement of the source 100-km daily-average ESM data. This extension of the Sup3rCC dataset includes data from six ESMs from two shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) totaling 400 years of data with multiple future projections of changing meteorological conditions. The scenario selection was based on a structured evaluation of historical ESM skill and comprehensive representation of possible trajectories of future climate change in temperature, humidity, precipitation, solar irradiance, and near-surface wind speeds. The inclusion of multiple future projections is intended to enable users to assess key drivers of un 36 certainty and variability. All data are double-bias corrected, resulting in a product that can be used out-of-the-box for energy system analysis with minimal historical bias. The potential applications of Sup3rCC data extend to various topics in renewable energy resource assessment, energy systems modeling, and grid resilience studies. High-resolution future meteorological projections are critical for evaluating the effects of changing meteorological conditions on renewable energy generation, energy demand, and for optimizing energy storage and grid infrastructure. The 4-km hourly resolution of the downscaled data enables understanding of spatial and temporal variability at the scales necessary for energy system operational planning. In addition, the dataset can support risk assessments by providing detailed information on possible future extreme weather events and long-term meteorological variability at scales relevant to energy infrastructure. By offering an enhanced representation of possible future meteorological conditions, the second-generation Sup3rCC dataset enables more precise modeling of energy resilience and adaptation strategies in response to changing meteorological conditions.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2024

ICED: An Integrated CGRA Framework Enabling DFVS-Aware Acceleration

oarse-grained reconfigurable arrays (CGRAs) are a promising solution to enable energy-efficient acceleration of applications from different domains. By leveraging reconfiguration at the functional level, they can adapt to significantly different computational patterns. Existing CGRA mapping approaches extract instruction-level parallelism, exploit loop-pipelining opportunities, guarantee the data dependency, and target high throughput of a given loop. However, the recurrence data-dependency in the DFG and the mismatch between required and available computing/communication resources complicate the mapping, and might lead to significant unbalances in the utilization of the CGRA's tiles. This results in wasted power for tiles with low utilization. Applying dynamic voltage and frequency scaling (DVFS) can potentially solve this challenge and improve energy efficiency by adjusting voltage and frequency of different tiles independently. CGRAs have also been successful in accelerating data-dependent streaming applications. However, in these applications, the execution time of each kernel in the pipeline might dynamically vary depending on the characteristics of the input. This also leads to under-utilization of resources for the dynamically changing kernels that do not limit the application throughput. DVFS can also improve energy efficiency for these applications by dynamically changing the voltage and frequency levels of tiles that host non performance-constraining kernels. This paper proposes ICEDTEA -- an integrated DVFS-aware framework to map applications on CGRAs that support power islands. ICEDTEA proposes a CGRA architecture supporting DVFS islands at varying granularity (from a single tile to a group of tiles) and the related DVFS-aware compilation and mapping toolchain. ICEDTEA is the first work that introduces DVFS support for spatio-temporal CGRAs at power-island levels. The experimental evaluation shows that ICEDTEA improves average utilization by 2.3$\times$ and energy-efficiency by 1.32$\times$ over a conventional CGRA. With streaming applications, ICEDTEA improves energy efficiency by 1.12$\times$ over a state-of-the-art CGRA that introduces partial dynamic reconfiguration to adapt to variations in kernels' throughput.

Tan, Cheng↗
DOE OSTI2017

Contaminant source identification using semi-supervised machine learning

Identification of the original groundwater types present in geochemical mixtures observed in an aquifer is a challenging but very important task. Frequently, some of the groundwater types are related to different infiltration and/or contamination sources associated with various geochemical signatures and origins. The characterization of groundwater mixing processes typically requires solving complex inverse models representing groundwater flow and geochemical transport in the aquifer, where the inverse analysis accounts for available site data. Usually, the model is calibrated against the available data characterizing the spatial and temporal distribution of the observed geochemical types. Numerous different geochemical constituents and processes may need to be simulated in these models which further complicates the analyses. In this paper, we propose a new contaminant source identification approach that performs decomposition of the observation mixtures based on Non-negative Matrix Factorization (NMF) method for Blind Source Separation (BSS), coupled with a custom semi-supervised clustering algorithm. Our methodology, called NMFk, is capable of identifying (a) the unknown number of groundwater types and (b) the original geochemical concentration of the contaminant sources from measured geochemical mixtures with unknown mixing ratios without any additional site information. NMFk is tested on synthetic and real-world site data. Finally, the NMFk algorithm works with geochemical data represented in the form of concentrations, ratios (of two constituents; for example, isotope ratios), and delta notations (standard normalized stable isotope ratios).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Learning the temporal evolution of multivariate densities via normalizing flows

In this work, we propose a method to learn multivariate probability distributions using sample path data from stochastic differential equations. Specifically, we consider temporally evolving probability distributions (e.g., those produced by integrating local or nonlocal Fokker–Planck equations). Here, we analyze this evolution through machine learning assisted construction of a time-dependent mapping that takes a reference distribution (say, a Gaussian) to each and every instance of our evolving distribution. If the reference distribution is the initial condition of a Fokker–Planck equation, what we learn is the time-T map of the corresponding solution. Specifically, the learned map is a multivariate normalizing flow that deforms the support of the reference density to the support of each and every density snapshot in time. We demonstrate that this approach can approximate probability density function evolutions in time from observed sampled data for systems driven by both Brownian and Lévy noise. We present examples with two- and three-dimensional, uni- and multimodal distributions to validate the method.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2019

Cardinal: A Lower Length-scale Simulator for Fluoride Cooled High Temperature Reactors

The new DOE-NE “Center of Excellence for Thermal-fluids applications in Nuclear Energy” inaugurated in April 2018 considers and researches novel new solution strategies for historically challenging flow issues that still plague the current fleet of deployed Light Water Reactor (LWR) nuclear reactors as well as predicting various fluid flow and fluid related issues with advanced reactor technologies. Our advanced thermal-fluids research and development approach synergistically combines three natural, though overlapping, length and time scales in a hierarchal multi-scale approach to avoid the temptation and pitfalls of attempting to develop a single “solve all” algorithm for physical fluid flow problems that will span 109 in spatial and temporal scales. The demonstrate the multi-scale philosophy of the center we focus first on Fluoride Cooled High Temperature Reactors (FHRs), and in particular on the Berkeley’s PB-FHR design Mark-I design. The Fluoride salt cooled High temperature Reactor (FHR) is a class of advanced nuclear reactors that combine the robust coated particle fuel form from high temperature gas cooled reactors, direct reactor auxiliary cooling system (DRACS) passive decay removal of liquid metal fast reactors, and the transparent, high volumetric heat capacitance liquid fluoride salt working fluids - Flibe - from molten salt reactors. This combination of fuel and coolant enables FHRs to operate in a high-temperature low-pressure design space that has beneficial safety and economic implications. The PB-FHR reactor relies on a pebble bed approach and pebble bed reactors are in a sense the poster child for multiscale analysis. The lower length-scale simulator for pebble reactor cores comprises three physics: neutronics (OpenMC), thermal-fluids (Nek5000) and fuel performance (BISON). As part of center of excellence ongoing research efforts we have developed “Cardinal”, a new tool platform for lower length-scale simulation. Cardinal tightly couples all three physics and leverages advances in MOOSE such as the MultiApp system and the concept of MOOSE-wrapped Apps. Moreover it is designed from the ground-up to scale on massively parallel architectures and perform well on world-class super-computing architectures. In this report we describe the design of Cardinal and present a demo of the application of Cardinal to an FHR.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗
DOE OSTI2022

DNS of Hydrodynamic Instabilities of Laminar H2/O2/N2 Flames at Elevated Pressure

The atypical combustion properties of hydrogen have long provided an interest for hydrogen-enriched combustion, emphasized in recent years by increasingly stringent emission regulations. Significant work has been focused on the small hydrocarbon(C1-C3)/hydrogen blends, but much less is known about the effect of hydrogen on heavier hydrocarbon combustion, of interest for the aviation and automotive industry. In this work, we perform direct numerical simulations (DNS) of spherically expanding laminar n-dodecane/H2 flames in a constant-volume vessel at elevated pressure and a range of hydrogen seeding levels. A low Mach number model is used to represent the gas and flame dynamics allowing for a temporally varying, spatially homogeneous pressure field, while also enabling numerical evolution of the system numerically at time step sizes governed by the advective CFL limit rather than acoustic processes. We use an adaptive mesh refinement (AMR) approach to tackle the large separation of scales associated with high pressure premixed flame surfaces propagating in a laboratory-scale closed domain. We incorporate detailed chemistry and transport models for the reacting flow and focus the analysis on the effects of the pressure rise on the flame propagation characteristics and morphology as the hydrogen content is increased. The presence of fast diffusive H2 and the pressure rise results in dramatic thinning of the flame and the potential onset of hydrodyanmic and theromdiffusive instabilities. We assess the potential role of these instabilities on the ability to accurately measure laminar burning speed experimentally based on the mean flame surface propagation speed.

high pressure↗