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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2023

Accuracy of DFT computed oxygen-vacancy formation energies and high-throughput search of solar thermochemical water-splitting compounds

The enthalpy change involved in metal oxide reduction is a key quantity in various processes related to energy conversion and storage, and is of particular interest for computational prediction. Often this prediction involves the simulation of a high temperature reduction process with a 0K methodology like density functional theory (DFT), and it is not infrequent for the high temperature and 0K stable crystal structures to differ. This introduces a conundrum with regards to the choice of crystal structure to utilize in the computation, with approaches in the literature varying and experimental validation remaining scarce. In this work we address both the crystal structure conundrum and the experimental validation, and then apply the insights we gain to guide a high-throughput search for new materials for solar thermochemical water-splitting applications. By computing the DFT+U oxygen vacancy formation energy (ΔE vf ) of a selection of ABO 3 compounds and comparing different crystal structures for each composition, we highlight the issues that arise when the structure utilized in the computation is dynamically unstable at 0K, namely the presence of an artificial lowering of ΔE vf , and the lack of convergence of ΔE vf with cell size. We solve these limitations by identifying and employing a suitable surrogate dynamically stable structure. We then validate the predictive power of our calculations against appositely generated experimental measurements of reduction enthalpy for a series of Hubbard U values, finding an accuracy ranging between 0.2-0.6 eV/O. In light of such conclusions, we revise and expand a previous a high-throughput DFT study on ABO 3 perovskite oxides. As a result, we provide a list of candidate STCH materials, highlight trends with redox-active cation and structural distortion, and identify Mn 4+ , Mn 3+ and Co 3+ as the most promising redox-active cations.

08 HYDROGEN↗
DOE OSTI2025

Predicting interface structure using the minima hopping method

Here, we adapt the minima hopping method (MHM) to the problem of interfacial structure prediction and apply it to study a canonical problem, the tilt grain boundaries in SrTiO 3 . Our method employs a hybrid approach by first exploring the potential energy surface (PES) of different grain boundary samplings with an empirical force field, among which the fifteen candidates with lower energies are then refined using ab initio density functional theory (DFT) calculations. During the exploratory stage, we bias the search using a local order parameter to primarily sample various reconstructions in the vicinity of the interface, while preserving the crystallinity of the bulk regions. We further enhance the search by incorporating initial structures with rigid body displacements to account for translational variations between bulk phases, enabling the MHM to effectively generate both stoichiometric and nonstoichiometric SrTiO 3 Σ⁢3(111)[110] and Σ⁢3(112)[110] grain boundaries. From an algorithmic standpoint, MHM outperforms earlier studies based on genetic algorithms (GA) by identifying more stable interfacial structures of several SrTiO 3 grain boundaries. The performance of the present implementation of the MHM approach is primarily limited by exploring an approximate description of the PES with a rather simple Buckingham potential. This limitation leads to variations in performance when compared to approaches utilizing more advanced surrogate PES models, such as direct DFT-PES sampling or GA with the embedded atom method (EAM). Despite the present limitations, the MHM approach is able to yield interfacial structures with comparable or lower interfacial energies in specific cases, such as Σ⁢3(111)[110] Γ=1, ±0.5 and Σ⁢3(112)[110] Γ= ±1, −2, underscoring the robustness of the MHM approach even with a simple approximation of the DFT PES. The MHM interfacial structure prediction method thus offers an efficient approach to understanding the grain boundaries and heterointerfaces at the atomic scale, providing an important prerequisite for effective materials design.

density functional theory↗
DOE OSTI2022

On the Use of Satellite Nightlights for Power Outages Prediction

Hurricanes are a dominant disaster in the Caribbean, always causing serious power outages throughout the islands. Hurricane Maria was a prime example, causing unimaginable destruction of the power infrastructure of Puerto Rico (PR). Consequently, one month after the hurricane landfall, approximately 80% of the population was still without power. After an event of such massive destruction, the electric power restoration process progresses very slowly. This timeline can be improved using power outage (PO) forecast models that help identify the vulnerable places before the hurricane landfall. Generally, these models are trained with historical power outages records, associated data on weather conditions, and additional information about the natural and built environments. However, PO records are often difficult to acquire, and, in many instances, the power utility companies may not record them. This study utilizes a satellite-based Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) night light data product as a surrogate for the power delivery to predict hurricane-induced PO in areas having limited to nonexistent historical data records. The processed satellite data is then used along with geographic variables, and simulated weather data to formulate machine learning-based algorithms to predict PO for future hurricane events. These models are applied and validated in the context of the PR catastrophic storm, Hurricane Maria.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

ASK: Adversarial Soft k-Nearest Neighbor Attack and Defense

K-Nearest Neighbor (kNN)-based deep learning methods have been applied to many applications due to their simplicity and geometric interpretability. However, the robustness of kNN-based deep classification models has not been thoroughly explored and kNN attack strategies are underdeveloped. In this paper, we first propose an Adversarial Soft kNN (ASK) loss for developing more effective kNN-based deep neural network attack strategies and designing better defense methods against them. Our ASK loss provides a differentiable surrogate of the expected kNN classification error. It is also interpretable as it preserves the mutual information between the perturbed input and the in-class-reference data. We use the ASK loss to design a novel attack method called the ASK-Attack (ASK-Atk), which shows superior attack efficiency and accuracy degradation relative to previous kNN attacks on hidden layers. We then derive an ASK-Defense (ASK-Def) method that optimizes the worst-case ASK training loss. Experiments on CIFAR-10 (ImageNet) show that (i) ASK-Atk achieves ≥13% (≥ 13% ) improvement in attack success rate over previous kNN attacks, and (ii) ASK-Def outperforms the conventional adversarial training method by ≥ 6.9% (≥ 3.5% ) in terms of robustness improvement. Relevant codes are available at https://github.com/wangren09/ASK .

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2020

CoSim: A Simulator for Co-Scheduling of Batch and On-Demand Jobs in HPC Datacenters

The increasing scale and complexity of scientific applications are rapidly transforming the ecosystem of tools, methods, and workflows adopted by the high-performance computing (HPC) community. Big data analytics and deep learning are gaining traction as essential components in this ecosystem in a variety of scenarios, such as, steering of experimental instruments , acceleration of high-fidelity simulations through surrogate computations, and guided ensemble searches. In this context, the batch job model traditionally adopted by the supercomputing in-frastructures needs to be complemented with support to schedule opportunistic on-demand analytics jobs, leading to the problem of efficient preemption of batch jobs with minimum loss of progress. In this paper, we design and implement a simulator, CoSim, that enables on-the-fly analysis of the trade-offs arising between delaying the start of opportunistic on-demand jobs, which leads to longer analytics latency, and loss of progress due to preemption of batch jobs, which is necessary to make room for on-demand jobs. To this end, we propose an algorithm based on dynamic programming with predictable performance and scalability that enables supercomputing infrastructure schedulers to analyze the aforementioned trade-off and take decisions in near real-time. Compared with other state-of-art approaches using traces of the Theta pre-Exascale machine, our approach is capable of finding the optimal solution, while achieving high performance and scalability.

batch job preemption↗
DOE OSTI2019

An Efficient Bayesian Method for Advancing the Application of Deep Learning in Earth Science

Despite their wide and successful applications, deep learning (DL) models are prone to overfitting for small training datasets, produce a poor predictive performance for uncertain data, and provide point estimations without any indication of the accuracy and credibility. These limitations of the deterministic DL models hinder their effective application in Earth system science where the labelled data are sparse, noisy and incomplete with large uncertainty and where the predictive uncertainty quantification is needed for scientific understanding and policy decision making. Integration of Bayesian inference into DL models adds an estimate of uncertainty and regularization in the predictions. However, traditional Bayesian methods are computationally unaffordable and inflexible for high-dimensional problems, which limits their application to DL systems that typically have millions of model parameters. In this effort, we propose an efficient and general-purpose Bayesian inference method to advance DL model optimization and uncertainty quantification, so as to facilitate the adoption of DL in Earth sciences. In a demonstration, we integrate the proposed Bayesian method with a feedforward neural network (NN) to build a fast-to-evaluate surrogate of the complex Energy Exascale Earth System Land Model for efficient modeling. The formulated Bayesian NN, using a small number of training data, produces an accurate prediction with high credibility, whereas with the same small training size, the deterministic NN cannot yield a reasonable estimation and does not provide confidence information. The proposed Bayesian method is computationally efficient and flexible, capable of integration with diverse network variants such as convolutional NNs and recurrent NNs to advance the application of DL in Earth sciences.

Lu, Dan↗
DOE OSTI2022

Extensive Attention Mechanisms in Graph Neural Networks for Materials Discovery

We present our research where attention mechanism is extensively applied to various aspects of graph neural net- works for predicting materials properties. As a result, surrogate models can not only replace costly simulations for materials screening but also formulate hypotheses and insights to guide further design exploration. We predict formation energy of the Materials Project and gas adsorption of crystalline adsorbents, and demonstrate the superior performance of our graph neural networks. Moreover, attention reveals important substructures that the machine learning models deem important for a material to achieve desired target properties. Our model is based solely on standard structural input files containing atomistic descriptions of the adsorbent material candidates. We construct novel methodological extensions to match the prediction accuracy of state-of-the-art models some of which were built with hundreds of features at much higher computational cost. We show that sophisticated neural networks can obviate the need for elaborate feature engineering. Our approach can be more broadly applied to optimize gas capture processes at industrial scale.

Cong, Guojing↗
DOE OSTI2022

A New Shape Optimization Approach for Lightweighting Electric Machines Inspired by Additive Manufacturing

Minimizing the mass in electric machines while maintaining superior performance is a new requirement for the advancement of drivetrains used in wind energy and electric mobility. Topology optimization (TO) for lightweighting electric machines using traditional approaches typically explores a restricted design space allowed by standard parametrizable geometry and manufacturing, while advanced methods, such as cell-based density approaches, suffer from a lack of robust manufacturability constraints during the optimization process. To overcome these drawbacks, we explore a grid-independent, boundary optimization where the outer shape of the magnet is parameterized using Bezier curves. We conduct a design of experiments (DOE) to study the effect of different magnet shapes on machine performance by varying the control points on the Bezier curves. A machine-learning-based surrogate model is constructed using the data from the DOE to quantify the relationship between the control points, air-gap torque, and mass. The control points are then optimized to maximize the torque density. The approach is used for minimizing electrical steel mass in the International Energy Agency (IEA) 15-MW radial flux direct-drive wind turbine generator. The new approach to shape optimization resulted in smooth and concise shapes that can be easily additively manufactured with up to a 20-ton reduction in electrical steel mass.

additive manufacturing↗
DOE OSTI2023

Automated Design-for-Reliability of a Power Electronics Module

The design of a power electronics module is a multiphysics problem and involves electrical, thermal, and reliability targets and constraints. Although the electrical and thermal design consider multiple aspects such as materials, geometry, and energy losses, reliability design is often limited to the selection of the attachment materials and electrical interconnect types. In this paper, we incorporate reliability metrics in the design phase by investigating the impact of package geometry on the thermomechanical behavior of the die-attachment material. To this end, we conducted thermal and power cycling simulations of a commercial six-pack power module with silicon carbide devices to compute junction temperature and strain energy density per cycle, respectively. We performed multiple simulations with different geometric dimensions and established a correlation between input features and output variables using subspace-based dimension reduction. The machine learning-based dimension reduction method serves as a surrogate model, which can be employed to identify the optimal module design from a thermal and reliability standpoint.

design-for-reliability↗
DOE OSTI2025

Design and Analysis of a Mutual Inductance Level Sensor for Liquid Metals

Here, this article describes the design and analysis of an electromagnetic level sensor for use in high-temperature liquid metal systems. The mutual inductance level sensor (MILS) described in this work was fabricated using two single-conductor mineral insulated cables wrapped in a bifilar fashion around a stainless steel tube core and was housed in an isolating thimble that preserved the pressure boundary of the test vessel. Two sensor variations were fabricated that differ only in active length, 1016 and 1778 mm. Experimental data were collected using the 1016-mm sensor (MILS-MKII-040) that demonstrated a sensitivity of 9.2 μ V/mm in a room temperature testing stand that used solid aluminum as a surrogate for liquid metal. Experimental data were collected using the 1778-mm sensor (MILS-MKII-070) that demonstrated a sensitivity of 6.9 μ V/mm in the high-temperature (300 ° C) liquid sodium environment at the mechanisms engineering test loop (METL) of Argonne National Laboratory. The sensor performance was found to be repeatable over the course of several months, with roughly ±1% deviation from nominal output. Finite element models were developed in COMSOL Multiphysics that fully describe each test setup, and the models were validated using experimental data. The validated COMSOL models were used to perform an array of analyses that examined the performance of the sensor in differing environments. Maximizing the coil diameter inside the isolating thimble was found to maximize the signal and sensitivity of the sensor. An optimal operating frequency was found near 1000 Hz using both experimental data and COMSOL. The influence of a metallic thimble surrounding the sensor and a metallic sensor core was quantified and found to be negligible at the optimal operating frequency. The sensitivity of the sensor was quantified when monitoring the level of additional liquid metals. These include lead, lead-bismuth eutectic (LBE), sodium-potassium alloy (NaK), and lithium (in addition to sodium). The sensitivities were quantified using liquid metal properties at 350 ° C and 650 ° C. The geometry of the test stand model, all material properties used in the model, and the results are presented in a manner that allows the reader can replicate the model and perform additional analyses.

COMSOL↗
DOE OSTI2024

Impedance-Aware Graph Convolutional Networks for Voltage Estimation in Active Distribution Networks

Voltage estimation plays a key role in ensuring the effective control and reliability of distribution networks. However, traditional machine learning methods often fail to capture the details of the distribution network’s topology. To overcome this challenge, graph convolutional networks (GCN) have emerged as an alternative. Graph convolutional networks inherently capture the topology of the grid, utilizing correlations to achieve precise voltage estimation. Other machine learning models and conventional GCNs fail to account for the distribution line characteristics found in the real world, limiting their effectiveness. This paper proposes an advanced variant of GCN called the Impedance-Aware Graph Convolutional Network (IA-GCN). The IA-GCN layer incorporates the magnitude of the impedance into the graph convolution mechanism, allowing it to capture topological nuances and provide valuable insights into node interrelationships by considering impedance as an intrinsic dimension. The performance of the IA-GCN layer is then compared with that of GCN and GraphSAGE layers through a surrogate model for voltage estimation. The performance analysis demonstrates that IA-GCN outperforms GCN by reducing the MAE by 87.55% and improving the R-squared value by 98%.

Ravi, Abhijith↗
DOE OSTI2025

Adaptive Computing for Scale-Up Problems

Adaptive Computing is an application-agnostic outer loop framework to strategically deploy simulations and experiments to guide decision making for scale-up analysis. Resources are allocated over successive batches, which makes the allocation adaptive to some objective such as optimization or model training. The framework enables the characterization and management of uncertainties associated with predictive models of complex systems when scale-up questions lead to significant model extrapolation. A key advancement of this framework is its integration of multi-fidelity surrogate modeling, uncertainty management, and automated orchestration of various computing and experimentation resources into a single integrated software package. This enables efficient multi-fidelity modeling across multiple computing resources by incorporating real-world constraints such as relative queue times and throughput on individual machines into the multi-fidelity sampling decision. We discuss applications of this framework to problems in the renewable energy space, including biofuels production, material synthesis, perovskite crystal growth, and building electrical loads.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2021

A Generalized Copula-Polynomial Chaos Expansion for Probabilistic Power Flow Considering Nonlinear Correlations of PV Injections

This paper develops a generalized Copula-polynomial chaos expansion (PCE) framework for power system probabilistic power flow that can handle both linear and nonlinear correlations of uncertain power injections, such as wind and PVs. A data-driven Copula statistical model is used to capture the correlations of uncertain power injections. This allows us to resort to the Rosenblatt transformation to transform correlated variables into independent ones while preserving the dependence structure. This paves the way of leveraging the PCE for surrogate modeling and uncertainty quantification of power flow results, i.e., achieving the probabilistic distributions of power flows. Simulations carried out on the IEEE 57-bus system show that the proposed framework can get much more accurate results than other alternatives with different linear and nonlinear power injection correlations.

copula↗
DOE OSTI2026

REV-INR: Regularized Evidential Implicit Neural Representation for Uncertainty-Aware Volume Visualization

Applications of Implicit Neural Representations (INRs) have emerged as a promising deep learning approach for compactly representing large volumetric datasets. These models can act as surrogates for volume data, enabling efficient storage and on-demand reconstruction via model predictions. However, conventional deterministic INRs only provide value predictions without insights into the model’s prediction uncertainty or the impact of inherent noisiness in the data. This limitation can lead to unreliable data interpretation and visualization due to prediction inaccuracies in the reconstructed volume. Identifying erroneous results extracted from model-predicted data may be infeasible, as raw data may be unavailable due to its large size. To address this challenge, we introduce REV-INR, Regularized Evidential Implicit Neural Representation, which learns to predict data values accurately along with the associated coordinate-level data uncertainty and model uncertainty using only a single forward pass of the trained REV-INR during inference. By comprehensively comparing and contrasting REV-INR with existing well-established deep uncertainty estimation methods, we show that REV-INR achieves the best volume reconstruction quality with robust data (aleatoric) and model (epistemic) uncertainty estimates using the fastest inference time. Consequently, we demonstrate that REV-INR facilitates assessment of the reliability and trustworthiness of the extracted isosurfaces and volume visualization results, enabling analyses to be solely driven by model-predicted data.

Saklani, Shanu [Indian Institute of Technology, Ka↗
DOE OSTI2024

Short-Term Probabilistic Solar Forecasting via Reinforcement Learning over ECMWF

In this paper, we present an innovative reinforcement learning approach for short-term solar forecasting, leveraging data from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). The methodology begins with the application of the System Advisor Model (SAM) to transform various ECMWF numerical weather prediction members into predictive photovoltaic power generation. To enhance the precision of deterministic forecasting, we introduce a dynamic model selection algorithm based on Q-learning. This algorithm dynamically identifies and utilizes the most accurate ensemble member for forecasting purposes. Furthermore, we employ a support vector regression surrogate model with a Gaussian distribution to generate probabilistic forecasts, providing a holistic view of solar energy generation uncertainty. To expedite the training process and make it more practical for real-world applications, we integrate a rolling update workflow. This innovative workflow reduces the training period from months to a mere 19 days, making our method highly efficient. Numerical results of the case study show that in comparison to benchmark models, the proposed method improves the deterministic and probabilistic solar forecasting accuracy by up to 40.84% and 48.42%, respectively.

ensemble forecasting↗
DOE OSTI2022

Accelerating Noisy VQE Optimization with Gaussian Processes

Hybrid variational quantum algorithms, which combine a classical optimizer with evaluations on a quantum chip, are the most promising candidates to show quantum advantage on current noisy, intermediate-scale quantum (NISQ) devices. The classical optimizer is required to perform well in the presence of noise in the objective function evaluations, or else it becomes the weakest link in the algorithm. We introduce the use of Gaussian Processes (GP) as surrogate models to reduce the impact of noise and to provide high quality seeds to escape local minima, whether real or noise-induced. We build this as a framework on top of local optimizations, for which we choose Implicit Filtering (ImFil) in this study. ImFil is a state-of-the-art, gradient-free method, which in comparative studies has been shown to outperform on noisy VQE problems. The result is a new method: "GP+ImFil". We show that when noise is present, the GP+ImFil approach finds results closer to the true global minimum in fewer evaluations than standalone ImFil, and that it works particularly well for larger dimensional problems. Using GP to seed local searches in a multi-modal landscape shows mixed results: although it is capable of improving on ImFil standalone, it does not do so consistently and would only be preferred over other, more exhaustive, multistart methods if resources are constrained.

Muller, Juliane↗
DOE OSTI2019

Economic Optimal Control for Minimizing Fuel Consumption of Heavy-Duty Trucks in a Highway Environment

This paper provides a comparative assessment of three economic optimal control strategies, aimed at minimizing the fuel consumption of heavy-duty trucks in a highway environment, under a representative lead vehicle model informed by traffic data. These strategies fuse a global, offline dynamic programming (DP) optimization with online model predictive control (MPC). We then show how two of the three strategies can be adapted to accommodate the presence of traffic and optimally navigate signalized intersections using infrastructure-to-vehicular (I2V) communication. The MPC optimization, which is local in nature, makes refinements to a coarsely (but globally, subject to grid resolution) optimized target velocity profile from the DP optimization. The three candidate economic MPC formulations that are evaluated include: a nonlinear time-based formulation that directly penalizes predicted fuel consumption, a nonlinear time-based formulation that penalizes braking effort as a surrogate for fuel consumption, and a linear distance-based convex formulation that maintains a tradeoff between energy expenditure and tracking of the coarsely optimized velocity profile obtained from DP. Using a medium-fidelity Simulink model, based on a Volvo truck's longitudinal and engine dynamics, we analyze the optimization's performance on four highway routes under various traffic scenarios. Results demonstrate 3.7-8.3% fuel economy improvement on highway routes without traffic and 6.5-10% on the same routes with traffic included. Furthermore, we present a detailed analysis of energy usage by "type" (aerodynamic losses, braking losses, and comparison of brake-specific fuel consumption), under each candidate control strategy.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Representative Period Selection for Robust Capacity Expansion Planning in Low-carbon Grids

With the increasing urgency to decarbonize power systems, while mitigating extreme events, capacity expansion models can play a vital role in reliably planning the expansion of power systems and facilitating the integration of renewable energy sources. Optimizing capacity expansion generally involves selecting surrogate representative days from forecasts of load and the generation profiles of variable renewable energy resources. To properly select those representative days, we propose a novel input-based approach in combination with the k-means clustering algorithm that utilize three unique operational inputs: load shedding, renewable curtailment, and transmission congestion. The proposed method allows for more robust and cost-effective capacity planning. The method is validated using a capacity expansion model and a production cost model based on California Independent System Operator (CAISO)'s decarbonization goals, and results in reduced costs and drastically lower load shedding.

Anderson, Osten P.↗