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At least 1,657 records · Page 92

Statistical and machine learning models for optimizing energy in parallel applications

Rising power costs and constraints are driving a growing focus on the energy efficiency of high performance computing systems. The unique characteristics of a particular system and workload and their effect on performance and energy efficiency are typically difficult for application users to assess and to control. Settings for optimum performance and energy efficiency can also diverge, so we need to identify trade-off options that guide a suitable balance between energy use and performance. We present statistical and machine learning models that only require a small number of runs to make accurate Pareto-optimal trade-off predictions using parameters that users can control. We study model training and validation using several parallel kernels and more complex workloads, including Algebraic Multigrid (AMG), Large-scale Atomic Molecular Massively Parallel Simulator, and Livermore Unstructured Lagrangian Explicit Shock Hydrodynamics. Here, we demonstrate that we can train the models using as few as 12 runs, with prediction error of less than 10%. Our AMG results identify trade-off options that provide up to 45% improvement in energy efficiency for around 10% performance loss. We reduce the sample measurement time required for AMG by 90%, from 13 h to 74 min.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Determination of a most representative cycle from cylinder pressure ensembles via statistical method using distribution skewness

In internal combustion engine research, cylinder pressure measurements provide valuable information about the underlying thermodynamic and combustion processes, and are typically collected in ensembles of several 100 traces. Although in some particular fields of combustion research all traces are analyzed, in most cases only one trace is studied because analyzing all the traces is impractical due to the large number of collected samples. Instead, an ensemble-averaged pressure trace is commonly calculated and used for analysis. However, this pressure trace is highly smoothed and dynamic information is lost during the averaging process. With the average trace, pressure rise rates are lower and pressure oscillations such as the ones resulting from combustion knock are lost. In this work, a statistical method was developed to determine the “most representative cycle,” which is the cycle from the ensemble that has the pressure trace most representative of the engine operating condition. Eleven characteristic parameters are computed from each pressure trace and probabilistic distributions are obtained for each of the parameters using all the traces in the ensemble. Finally, the most representative cycle is selected by means of a cost function minimization. The benefits of this method are illustrated using experimental data from four very different engine platforms, under four different combustion modes and over a range of operating conditions.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Statistical relationship between metabolic decomposition and chemical uptake predicts bioconcentration factor data for diverse chemical exposures

Background: A challenge of in vitro to in vivo extrapolation (IVIVE) is to predict the physical state of organisms exposed to chemicals in the environment from in vitro exposure assay data. Although toxicokinetic modeling approaches promise to bridge in vitro screening data with i Danio rerio ) based upon particle swarm optimizations (PSO) of the chemical uptake and degradation rates that predict bioconcentration factors (BCF) for a broad range of chemicals. PSO reveals a relationship between chemical uptake and decomposition parameter values that predicts chemical-specific BCF values with moderate statistical agreement to a limited yet diverse chemical dataset, and all without a need to retrain the model to new data. Conclusions: The presented model requires only the octanol-water partitioning ratio to predict BCFs to a fidelity consistent with existing QSAR models. This success begs re-evaluation of the modeling assumptions; specifically, it suggests that chemical uptake into arterial blood may be limited by transport across gill membranes (diffusion) rather than by counter-current flow between gill lamellae (convection). Therefore, more detailed molecular modeling of aquatic respiration may further improve predictive accuracy of the rTK approach.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Improving multiwell petrophysical interpretation from well logs via machine learning and statistical models

Well-log interpretation estimates in situ rock properties along well trajectory, such as porosity, water saturation, and permeability, to support reserve-volume estimation, production forecasts, and decision making in reservoir development. However, due to measurement errors, variability of well logs caused by multiple measurement vendors, different borehole tools, and nonuniform drilling/borehole conditions, estimations of rock properties with original well logs without proper preprocessing may not be accurate, especially in the context of multiwell estimation. Well-log normalization techniques such as two-point scaling and mean-variance normalization are commonly used to improve the robustness of multiwell rock-property estimation. However, these techniques do not consider the correlation between well logs and require subjective knowledge for their effective implementation. To reduce uncertainties and processing time associated with multiwell rock-property estimation from well logs, we develop discriminative adversarial (DA) and linear constraint models for well-log normalization and rock-property estimation. The DA neural network model developed for well-log normalization and interpretation can perform linear and nonlinear well-log normalization while considering the joint distribution of each well log and rock properties. However, the linear constraint model uses an ensemble of predictions from linear models to constrain well-log normalization and rock-property estimation. We also develop a divergence-based type well identification method to select type (training) wells for a test well based on the statistical similarity of associated well-log distributions instead of the interwell distance. We apply the DA model to perform well-log normalization and prediction of permeability for the Seminole San Andres Unit carbonate reservoir. Compared with the permeability predicted with the classical machine learning model without well-log normalization and models with two-point scaling normalization, the DA model yields the most accurate permeability prediction by decreasing the mean-squared error of permeability prediction by 20%–50%.

Geochemistry & Geophysics↗

A Generalizable Evaluated Approach, Applying Advanced Geospatial Statistical Methods, to Identify High Lead Exposure Locations at Census Tract Scale: Michigan Case Study

BACKGROUND: Despite great progress in reducing environmental lead (Pb) levels, many children in the United States are still being exposed. OBJECTIVE: Our aim was to develop a generalizable approach for systematically identifying, verifying, and analyzing locations with high prevalence of children’s elevated blood Pb levels (EBLLs) and to assess available Pb models/indices as surrogates, using a Michigan case study. METHODS: We obtained ~1:9 million BLL test results of children <6 years of age in Michigan from 2006–2016; we then evaluated them for data representativeness by comparing two percentage EBLL (%EBLL) rates (number of children tested with EBLL divided by both number of children tested and total population). We analyzed %EBLLs across census tracts over three time periods and between two EBLL reference values (≥5 vs. ≥10 μg/dL) to evaluate consistency. Locations with high %EBLLs were identified by a top 20 percentile method and a Getis-Ord Gi* geospatial cluster “hotspot” analysis. For the locations identified, we analyzed convergences with three available Pb exposure models/indices based on old housing and sociodemographics. RESULTS: Analyses of 2014–2016 %EBLL data identified 11 Michigan locations via cluster analysis and 80 additional locations via the top 20 percentile method and their associated census tracts. Data representativeness and consistency were supported by a 0.93 correlation coefficient between the two EBLL rates over 11 y, and a Kappa score of ~0:8 of %EBLL hotspots across the time periods (2014–2016) and reference values. Many EBLL hotspot locations converge with current Pb exposure models/indices; others diverge, suggesting additional Pb sources for targeted interventions. DISCUSSION: This analysis confirmed known Pb hotspot locations and revealed new ones at a finer geographic resolution than previously available, using advanced geospatial statistical methods and mapping/visualization. It also assessed the utility of surrogates in the absence of blood Pb data. This approach could be applied to other states to inform Pb mitigation and prevention efforts. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP9705

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Sensitivity of resonance properties of all-dielectric multilayers driven by statistical fluctuations

In photonics and emerging fields of quantum and topological materials, increasing demands are placed upon the state and control of electromagnetic fields. Dielectric multilayer materials may be designed and optimized to possess extremely sharp spectral and angular photonic resonances allowing for the creation of fields orders of magnitude larger than the exciting field. With enhancements of 10 4 and higher, the extreme nature of these resonances places high constraints on the statistical properties of the physical and optical characteristics of the materials. To what extent the spectral and angular shifts occur as a result of fluctuations in the refractive indices and morphologies of the involved low-loss subdomains have not been considered previously. Here, we present how parameter variations such as those caused by fluctuations in deposition rate, yielding bias, random and compensated errors, may affect the resonance properties of low-loss all-dielectric stacks.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Tracking Climate Change through the Spatiotemporal Dynamics of the Teletherms, the Statistically Hottest and Coldest Days of the Year

Instabilities and long term shifts in seasons, whether induced by natural drivers or human activities, pose great disruptive threats to ecological, agricultural, and social systems. Here, we propose, measure, and explore two fundamental markers of location-sensitive seasonal variations: the Summer and Winter Teletherms—the on-average annual dates of the hottest and coldest days of the year. We analyze daily temperature extremes recorded at 1218 stations across the contiguous United States from 1853–2012, and observe large regional variation with the Summer Teletherm falling up to 90 days after the Summer Solstice, and 50 days for the Winter Teletherm after the Winter Solstice. We show that Teletherm temporal dynamics are substantive with clear and in some cases dramatic shifts reflective of system bifurcations. We also compare recorded daily temperature extremes with output from two regional climate models finding considerable though relatively unbiased error. In conclusion, our work demonstrates that Teletherms are an intuitive, powerful, and statistically sound measure of local climate change, and that they pose detailed, stringent challenges for future theoretical and computational models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

National Summary Statistics for Depot-Based Medium- and Heavy-Duty Vehicle Operations

This file provides nationally aggregated summary statistics to characterize the daily operations of medium- and heavy-duty vehicles. It provides typical daily driving distances, domicile dwell durations, and one version of potential normalized electric vehicle depot charging load curves. The methodology to create these data was designed with national representativeness in mind, and the data are suitable for national analysis.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Manipulation and statistical analysis of the fluid flow of polymer semiconductor solutions during meniscus-guided coating

Recent work in structure–processing relationships of polymer semiconductors have demonstrated the versatility and control of thin-film microstructure offered by meniscusguided coating (MGC) techniques. Here, we analyze the qualitative and quantitative aspects of solution shearing, a model MGC method, using coating blades augmented with arrays of pillars. The pillars induce local regions of high strain rates—both shear and extensional—not otherwise possible with unmodified blades, and we use fluid mechanical simulations to model and study a variety of pillar spacings and densities. We then perform a statistical analysis of 130 simulation variables to find correlations with three dependent variables of interest: thin-film degree of crystallinity and transistor field-effect mobilities for charge-transport parallel (Μ para ) and perpendicular (Μ perp ) to the coating direction. Our study suggests that simple fluid mechanical models can reproduce substantive correlations between the induced fluid flow and important performance metrics, providing a methodology for optimizing blade design.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

A Robust Statistical Algorithm for Boundary Detection in Liquid Sprays

This work presents a statistical algorithm to detect phase boundaries in liquid sprays. Experimental data were obtained in a nonevaporating acetone spray at atmospheric conditions to minimize the refractive index gradients and associated beam steering. Mie scattering and diffuse background illumination (DBI) diagnostics are implemented to demonstrate the robustness of the approach. The analysis shows that the present algorithm yields similar results for the two different diagnostics, unlike existing threshold-based methodologies providing inconsistent results. The algorithm can be used to identify partial liquid boundaries between single-phase liquid and vapor boundaries. Thus, for each case, liquid boundaries were defined in terms of liquid probability of 100% or less than 100%. Sprays from two different injectors were analyzed to demonstrate the versatility of the methodology. Finally, a parametric study was conducted to demonstrate that motion blur can affect an accurate detection of the phase boundaries, and hence, the exposure time in the experiment must be sufficiently small.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Statistical Analysis of the Eigenmode Spectrum in the SRF Cavities with Mechanical Imperfections

The superconducting radio frequency (SRF) technology is progressing rapidly over last decades toward high accelerating gradients and low surface resistance making feasible the particle accelerators operation with high beam currents and long duty factors. However, the coherent RF losses due to high order modes (HOMs) excitation becomes a limiting factor for these regimes. In spite of the operating mode, which is tuned separately, the parameters of HOMs vary from one cavity to another due to finite mechanical tolerances during cavities fabrication. It is vital to know in advance the spread of HOM parameters in order to predict unexpected cryogenic losses, overheating of beam line components and to keep stable beam dynamics. In this paper we present the method of generating the unique cavity geometry with imperfections while preserving operating mode frequency and field flatness. Based on the eigenmode spectrum calculation of series of randomly generated cavities we can accumulate the data for the evaluation the HOM statistics. Finally, we describe the procedure for the estimation of the probability of the resonant HOM losses in the SRF resonators. The study of these effects leads to specifications of SC cavity and cryomodule and can significantly impact on the efficiency and reliability of the machine operation

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗

Statistical Measurement of Longitudinal Beam Halo in Fermilab Recycler

The formation of non-Gaussian halo in both the transverse and longitudinal dimensions of beam bunches has been notoriously difficult both the model and to measure. We present a technique to measure the longitudinal halo of 2.5 MHz bunches in the Fermilab Recycler, which have been formed for the g-2 anomalous magnetic moment experiment. While out of time beam is not a particular concern to this experiment, it is a key issue for the subsequent Mu2e rare muon decay experiment, which will use the same bunch formation procedure. Our measurement relies on a statistical technique, in which a small fraction of the beam is scattered from the primary collimation foil in the recycler, and then is detected by a charge telescope consisting of quartz Cherenkov radiators and photomultiplier tubes. By integrating over many revolutions, the time profile of longitudinal halo (out-of-time beam) can be measured down to less than a 10⁻⁵ fractional level, relative to in-time beam. These results can then be compared to simulations.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗

Deterministic and Statistical Modeling of a New Thermal Breakout Technology for Measuring the Maximum Horizontal In-Situ Stress

The current state-of-the-art technology for in-situ stress measurements involves an integrated approach that combines borehole breakout observations, drilling-induced tensile fractures, and hydraulic fracturing tests (i.e., “mini-fracs”). This methodology has achieved wide application in the oil and gas industry but has several limitations that often prevent successful in-situ stress measurements. One major limitation is that breakouts do not appear in all boreholes and are generally only a natural occurrence that cannot easily be controlled. Because borehole breakouts are used to directly measure the maximum horizontal in-situ stress magnitude, the absence of borehole breakouts presents a major data gap for in-situ stress measurements. In response to this data gap, a new US Department of Energy (US DOE)-sponsored thermal breakout technology that will provide a method for thermally inducing borehole breakouts and allow the consistent measurement of the maximum horizontal stress magnitude is currently in development. This thermal breakout technology involves heating the borehole and increasing the thermoelastic compressive stress in the rock until a breakout develops, which can be directly correlated to the maximum horizontal stress magnitude. The first step in this project was an analytical modeling study of the thermal breakout process. Based on the Kirsch solution (Kirsch 1898), a deterministic and statistical analysis was performed on the pertinent parameters that influence the maximum horizontal stress calculation. As a result of the analysis, the findings indicate that the thermal breakout technology is feasible and provides improved accuracy and/or an enhanced ability to measure the maximum horizontal stress. Future work as part of this US DOE-sponsored project includes additional validation through more detailed numerical modeling, laboratory testing, and field testing of the thermal breakout technology.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Statistics of particle time-temperature histories :

Progress toward predictions of the statistics of particle time-temperature histories is presented. These predictions are to be made using Lagrangian particle models within the one-dimensional turbulence (ODT) model. In the present reporting period we have further characterized the performance, behavior and capabilities of the particle dispersion models that were added to the ODT model in the first period. We have also extended the capabilities in two manners. First we provide alternate implementations of the particle transport process within ODT; within this context the original implementation is referred to as the type-I and the new implementations are referred to as the type-C and type-IC interactions. Second we have developed and implemented models for two-way coupling between the particle and fluid phase. This allows us to predict the reduced rate of turbulent mixing associated with particle dissipation of energy and similar phenomena. Work in characterizing these capabilities has taken place in homogeneous decaying turbulence, in free shear layers, in jets and in channel flow with walls, and selected results are presented.

Hewson, John C.↗

Statistical Comparison of the Baseline Mechanical Properties of NBG-18 and PCEA Graphite

High-purity graphite is the core structural material of choice in the Very High Temperature Reactor (VHTR), a graphite-moderated, helium-cooled design that is capable of producing process heat for power generation and for industrial process that require temperatures higher than the outlet temperatures of present nuclear reactors. The Baseline Graphite Characterization Program is endeavoring to minimize the conservative estimates of as-manufactured mechanical and physical properties by providing comprehensive data that captures the level of variation in measured values. In addition to providing a comprehensive comparison between these values in different nuclear grades, the program is also carefully tracking individual specimen source, position, and orientation information in order to provide comparisons and variations between different lots, different billets, and different positions from within a single billet. This report is a preliminary comparison between the two grades of graphite that were initially favored in the two main VHTR designs. NBG-18, a medium-grain pitch coke graphite from SGL formed via vibration molding, was the favored structural material in the pebble-bed configuration, while PCEA, a smaller grain, petroleum coke, extruded graphite from GrafTech was favored for the prismatic configuration. An analysis of the comparison between these two grades will include not only the differences in fundamental and statistically-significant individual strength levels, but also the differences in variability in properties within each of the grades that will ultimately provide the basis for the prediction of in-service performance. The comparative performance of the different types of nuclear grade graphites will continue to evolve as thousands more specimens are fully characterized from the numerous grades of graphite being evaluated.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Statistical Evaluation of Tank 12 Sampling Options

Savannah River Remediation (SRR) is preparing Tank 12 for removal from service and has issued a scope of work to the Savannah River National Laboratory (SRNL) under a Task Technical Request (TTR) G-TTR-H-00007 (Savannah River Remediation, 2014) to provide statistical support for the Sample Location Determination Report (SLDR) and the Tank-Specific Sampling and Analysis Plan (TSAP). In response SRNL has issued a Task Technical and Quality Assurance Plan (TTQAP) (Shine, 2014) outlining the strategy for assessing sampling options.

Shine, G.↗

Structure Learning and Statistical Estimation in Distribution Networks - Part II

Limited placement of real-time monitoring devices in the distribution grid, recent trends notwithstanding, has prevented the easy implementation of demand-response and other smart grid applications. Part I of this paper discusses the problem of learning the operational structure of the grid from nodal voltage measurements. In this work (Part II), the learning of the operational radial structure is coupled with the problem of estimating nodal consumption statistics and inferring the line parameters in the grid. Based on a Linear-Coupled(LC) approximation of AC power flows equations, polynomial time algorithms are designed to identify the structure and estimate nodal load characteristics and/or line parameters in the grid using the available nodal voltage measurements. Then the structure learning algorithm is extended to cases with missing data, where available observations are limited to a fraction of the grid nodes. The efficacy of the presented algorithms are demonstrated through simulations on several distribution test cases.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗