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At least 1,657 records · Page 92

ASCENDS: Advanced data SCiENce toolkit for Non-Data Scientists

Recently, advances in machine learning and artificial intelligence have been playing more and more critical roles in a wide range of areas. For the last several years, industries have shown that how learning from data, identifying patterns and making decisions with minimal human intervention can be extremely useful to their business (e.g., image classification, recommending a product to a customer, finding friends in a social network, predicting customers actions, etc.). These success stories have been motivating scientists who study physics, chemistry, materials, medicine, and many other subjects, to explore a new pathway of utilizing machine learning techniques like regression and classification for their scientific activities. However, most existing machine learning tools, systems, and methodologies have been developed for programming experts but not for scientists (or any users) who have no or little knowledge of programming. ASCENDS is a toolkit that is developed to assist scientists (or any persons) who want to use their data for machine learning tasks, more specifically, correlation analysis, regression, and classification. ASCENDS does not require programming skills. Instead, it provides a set of simple but powerful CLI (Command Line Interface) and GUI (Graphic User Interface) tools for non-data scientists to be able to intuitively perform advanced data analysis and machine learning techniques. ASCENDS has been implemented by wrapping around opensource software including Keras, TensorFlow, and scikit-learn.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Portable Automation of Static Chamber Sample Collection for Quantifying Soil Gas Flux

Quantification of soil gas flux using the static chamber method is labor intensive. The number of chambers that can be sampled is limited by the spacing between chambers and the availability of trained research technicians. An automated system for collecting gas samples from chambers in the field would eliminate the need for personnel to return to the chamber during a flux measurement period and would allow a single technician to sample multiple chambers simultaneously. This study describes Chamber Automated Sampling Equipment (FluxCASE) to collect and store chamber headspace gas samples at assigned time points for the measurement of soil gas flux. The FluxCASE design and operation is described, and the accuracy and precision of the FluxCASE system is evaluated. In laboratory measurements of nitrous oxide (N2O), carbon dioxide (CO2), and methane (CH4) concentrations of a standardized gas mixture, coefficients of variation associated with automated and manual sample collection were comparable, indicating no loss of precision. In the field, soil gas fluxes measured from FluxCASEs were in agreement with manual sampling for both N2O and CO2. Slopes of regression equations were 1.01 for CO2 and 0.97 for N2O. The 95% confidence limits of the slopes of the regression lines included the value of one, indicating no bias. Additionally, an expense analysis found a cost recovery ranging from 0.6 to 2.2 yr. Implementing the FluxCASE system is an alternative to improve the efficiency of the static chamber method for measuring soil gas flux while maintaining the accuracy and precision of manual sampling.

Davis, Morgan P.↗

Comparing vis–NIRS, LIBS, and Combined vis–NIRS‐LIBS for Intact Soil Core Soil Carbon Measurement

Core Ideas First rigorous integration of VisNIR and LIBS spectroscopic techniques for soil profile C measurement. Field‐moist intact soil cores scanned with LIBS and VisNIR simulating in situ measurements. Combined VisNIR‐LIBS wavelengths selected by MRCE were split nearly equally between sensors, suggesting molecular and elemental information was successfully integrated for predicting TC, IC, and SOC. Stoichiometric relationships in LIBS elemental emissions are more strongly correlated to IC concentration than were carbonate absorptions in VisNIR. Lack of variation and consistent, definable chemical composition and stoichiometry likely contributed to poor LIBS and combined VisNIR – LIBS prediction accuracy for SOC. Soil organic carbon (SOC) measurement is critically important to quantify regional and global soil C stocks and better understand soil C biogeochemical processes. Recent studies employing laser‐induced breakdown spectroscopy (LIBS) and visible‐near infrared diffuse reflectance spectroscopy (vis–NIRS) indicate their potential for in situ soil C determination. Visible and near infrared diffuse reflectance spectroscopy and LIBS spectroscopy fundamentally differ and we hypothesize that their integration would provide improved soil C predictions. We report the first rigorous integration of vis–NIRS and LIBS, evaluating the precision of vis–NIRS, LIBS, and combined vis–NIRS‐LIBS spectra for simulated in situ soil profile total C (TC), inorganic C (IC) and SOC measurement. Three multivariate variable selection and regression approaches were evaluated for soil C prediction. The highest soil C prediction accuracies were observed using multivariate regression with covariance estimation (MRCE). Inorganic C was best predicted by LIBS, vis–NIRS provided better SOC predictions, and TC was best predicted using combined vis–NIRS‐LIBS data. Combined vis–NIRS‐LIBS did not consistently increase soil C prediction accuracy. Soil organic C was not well predicted, presumably due to challenges associated with scanning surfaces of intact soil cores, variable SOC chemistries, and low SOC variation in the dataset. Considering the challenging conditions under which combined vis–NIRS– LIBS was tested for soil C measurement, data integration and model calibrations had acceptable performance. Further testing under more controlled soil conditions with samples containing greater SOC diversity is necessary to determine the technical potential of combined vis–NIRS/LIBS for soil C determination.

Bricklemyer, Ross S.↗

Advanced stationary and nonstationary kernel designs for domain-aware Gaussian processes

Gaussian process regression is a widely-applied method for function approximation and uncertainty quantification. The technique has gained popularity recently in the machine learning community due to its robustness and interpretability. The mathematical methods we discuss in this paper are an extension of the Gaussian-process framework. We are proposing advanced kernel designs that only allow for functions with certain desirable characteristics to be elements of the reproducing kernel Hilbert space (RKHS) that underlies all kernel methods and serves as the sample space for Gaussian process regression. These desirable characteristics reflect the underlying physics; two obvious examples are symmetry and periodicity constraints. In addition, non-stationary kernel designs can be defined in the same framework to yield flexible multi-task Gaussian processes. We will show the impact of advanced kernel designs on Gaussian processes using several synthetic and two scientific data sets. The results of our research show that including domain knowledge, communicated through advanced kernel designs, has a significant impact on the accuracy and relevance of the function approximation.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Quantile-Specific Heritability of Inflammatory and Oxidative Stress Biomarkers Linked to Cardiovascular Disease

Purpose: Heritability (h 2 , the proportion of the phenotypic variance attributable to additive genetic effects) is traditionally assumed to be constant throughout the distribution of the phenotype. However, the heritabilities of circulating C-reactive protein, interleukin-6, plasminogen activator inhibitor type-1 (PAI-1), and monocyte chemoattractant protein-1 (MCP-1) concentrations depend upon whether the phenotype is high or low relative to their distributions (quantile-dependent expressivity), which may account for apparent gene–environment interactions. Whether the heritabilities of other inflammatory biomarkers linked to cardiovascular disease are quantile-dependent remain to be determined. Patients and Methods: Quantile-specific offspring-parent (β OP ) and full-sib regression slopes (β FS ) were estimated by applying quantile regression to the age- and sex-adjusted phenotypes of families surveyed as part of the Framingham Heart Study. Quantile-specific heritabilities were calculated as: h 2 =2β OP /(1+r spouse ) and h 2 ={(1+8r spouse β FS ) 0.5 – 1}/(2r spouse ). Results: Heritability (h 2 ± SE) of lipoprotein-associated phospholipase A2 (Lp-PLA 2 ) mass concentrations increased from 0.11 ± 0.03 at the 10 th percentile, 0.08 ± 0.03 at the 25 th , 0.12 ± 0.03 at the 50 th , 0.20 ± 0.04 at the 75 th , and 0.26 ± 0.06 at the 90 th percentile, or 0.0023 ± 0.0006 per each one-percent increase in the phenotype distribution (P linear trend = 0.0004). Similarly, h 2 increased 0.0029 ± 0.0011 (P linear trend = 0.01) for sP-selectin, 0.0032 ± 0.0009 (P linear trend = 0.0001) for soluble intercellular adhesion molecule 1 (sICAM-1), and 0.0026 ± 0.0006 for tumor necrosis factor receptor 2 (TNFR2) (P linear trend = 5.0 × 10 -6 ) per each one-percent increase in their distributions when estimated from β OP . Osteoprotegerin and soluble ST2 heritability also increased significantly with increasing percentiles of their distributions when estimated from β FS . Lp-PLA 2 activity, CD40 ligand, TNFα, interleukin-18, and myeloperoxidase heritability showed no significant quantile-dependence. Conclusion: The heritabilities of circulating Lp-PLA 2 -mass, sP-selectin, sICAM-1, TNFR2, osteoprotegerin and soluble ST2 concentrations are quantile-dependent, which may contribute to purported genetic modulations of: 1) sP-selectin’s relationships to venous thrombosis, pulmonary hypertension, type 2 diabetes and atorvastatin treatment; 2) sICAM-I’s relationships to brain abscess and atorvastatin treatment; and 3) Lp-PLA 2 ’s relationships to myocardial infarction and preeclampsia.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Housing Archetype Analysis for Home Energy-Efficient Retrofit in the Great Lakes Region

This project report details activities and results of the 'Market Characterization' project undertaken by the Cost Effective Energy Retrofit (CEER) team targeted toward the DOE goal of achieving 30%-50% reduction in existing building energy use. CEER consists of members from the Dow Chemical Company, Michigan State University, Ferris State University and Habitat for Humanity Kent County. The purpose of this market characterization project was to identify housing archetypes which are dominant within Great Lakes region and therefore offer significant potential for energy-efficient retrofit research and implementation due to the substantial number of homes possessing similar characteristics. Understanding the characteristics of housing groups referred to as 'archetypes' by vintage, style, and construction characteristics can allow research teams to focus their retrofit research and develop prescriptive solutions for those structure types which are prevalent and offer high potential uptake within a region or market. Key research activities included; literature review, statistical analysis of national and regional data of the American Housing Survey (AHS) collected by the U.S. Census Bureau, analysis of Michigan specific data, development of a housing taxonomy of architectural styles, case studies of two local markets (i.e., Ann Arbor and Grand Rapids in Michigan) and development of a suggested framework (or process) for characterizing local markets. In order to gain a high level perspective, national and regional data from the U.S. Census Bureau was analyzed using cross tabulations, multiple regression models, and logistic regression to characterize the housing stock and determine dominant house types using 21 variables.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Automated Algorithms for Quantum-Level Accuracy in Atomistic Simulations: LDRD Final Report.

This report summarizes the result of LDRD project 12-0395, titled "Automated Algorithms for Quantum-level Accuracy in Atomistic Simulations." During the course of this LDRD, we have developed an interatomic potential for solids and liquids called Spectral Neighbor Analysis Poten- tial (SNAP). The SNAP potential has a very general form and uses machine-learning techniques to reproduce the energies, forces, and stress tensors of a large set of small configurations of atoms, which are obtained using high-accuracy quantum electronic structure (QM) calculations. The local environment of each atom is characterized by a set of bispectrum components of the local neighbor density projected on to a basis of hyperspherical harmonics in four dimensions. The SNAP coef- ficients are determined using weighted least-squares linear regression against the full QM training set. This allows the SNAP potential to be fit in a robust, automated manner to large QM data sets using many bispectrum components. The calculation of the bispectrum components and the SNAP potential are implemented in the LAMMPS parallel molecular dynamics code. Global optimization methods in the DAKOTA software package are used to seek out good choices of hyperparameters that define the overall structure of the SNAP potential. FitSnap.py, a Python-based software pack- age interfacing to both LAMMPS and DAKOTA is used to formulate the linear regression problem, solve it, and analyze the accuracy of the resultant SNAP potential. We describe a SNAP potential for tantalum that accurately reproduces a variety of solid and liquid properties. Most significantly, in contrast to existing tantalum potentials, SNAP correctly predicts the Peierls barrier for screw dislocation motion. We also present results from SNAP potentials generated for indium phosphide (InP) and silica (SiO 2 ). We describe efficient algorithms for calculating SNAP forces and energies in molecular dynamics simulations using massively parallel computers and advanced processor ar- chitectures. Finally, we briefly describe the MSM method for efficient calculation of electrostatic interactions on massively parallel computers.

Thompson, Aidan Patrick↗

A Calibration to Predict the Concentrations of Impurities in Plutonium Oxide by Prompt Gamma Analysis Revision 2

This report documents the new PG calibration regression equation. These calibration equations incorporate new data that have become available since revision 1 of “A Calibration to Predict the Concentrations of Impurities in Plutonium Oxide by Prompt Gamma Analysis” was issued [3] The calibration equations are based on a weighted least squares (WLS) approach for the regression. The WLS method gives each data point its proper amount of influence over the parameter estimates. This gives two big advantages, more precise parameter estimates and better and more defensible estimates of uncertainties. The WLS approach makes sense both statistically and experimentally because the variances increase with concentration, and there are physical reasons that the higher measurements are less reliable and should be less influential. The new magnesium calibration includes a correction for sodium and separate calibration equation for items with and without chlorine. These additional calibration equations allow for better predictions and smaller uncertainties for sodium in materials with and without chlorine. Chlorine and sodium have separate equations for RICH materials. Again, these equations give better predictions and smaller uncertainties chlorine and sodium for RICH materials.

Instrumentation Related to Nuclear Science & Techn↗

Climate Induced Spillover and Implications for U.S. Security.

Developing nations incur a greater risk to climate change than the developed world due to poorly managed human/natural resources, unreliable infrastructure and brittle governing/economic institutions. These vulnerabilities often give rise to a climate induced “domino effect” of reduced natural resource production-leading to economic hardship, social unrest, and humanitarian crises. Integral to this cascading set of events is increased human migration, leading to the “spillover” of impacts to adjoining areas with even broader impact on global markets and security. Given the complexity of factors influencing human migration and the resultant spill-over effect, quantitative tools are needed to aid policy analysis. Toward this need, a series of migration models were developed along with a system dynamics model of the spillover effect. The migration decision models were structured according to two interacting paths, one that captured long-term “chronic” impacts related to protracted deteriorating quality of life and a second focused on short-term “acute” impacts of disaster and/or conflict. Chronic migration dynamics were modeled for two different cases; one that looked only at emigration but at a national level for the entire world; and a second that looked at both emigration and immigration but focused on a single nation. Model parameterization for each of the migration models was accomplished through regression analysis using decadal data spanning the period 1960-2010. A similar approach was taken with acute migration dynamics except regression analysis utilized annual data sets limited to a shorter time horizon (2001-2013). The system dynamics spillover model was organized around two broad modules, one simulating the decision dynamics of migration and a second module that treats the changing environmental conditions that influence the migration decision. The environmental module informs the migration decision, endogenously simulating interactions/changes in the economy, labor, population, conflict, water, and food. A regional model focused on Mali in western Africa was used as a test case to demonstrate the efficacy of the model.

Tidwell, Vincent C.↗

Collaborative Project. 3D Radiative Transfer Parameterization Over Mountains/Snow for High-Resolution Climate Models. Fast physics and Applications

Under the support of the aforementioned DOE Grant, we have made two fundamental contributions to atmospheric and climate sciences: (1) Develop an efficient 3-D radiative transfer parameterization for application to intense and intricate inhomogeneous mountain/snow regions. (2) Innovate a stochastic parameterization for light absorption by internally mixed black carbon and dust particles in snow grains for understanding and physical insight into snow albedo reduction in climate models. With reference to item (1), we divided solar fluxes reaching mountain surfaces into five components: direct and diffuse fluxes, direct- and diffuse-reflected fluxes, and coupled mountain-mountain flux. “Exact” 3D Monte Carlo photon tracing computations can then be performed for these solar flux components to compare with those calculated from the conventional plane-parallel (PP) radiative transfer program readily available in climate models. Subsequently, Parameterizations of the deviations of 3D from PP results for five flux components are carried out by means of the multiple linear regression analysis associated with topographic information, including elevation, solar incident angle, sky view factor, and terrain configuration factor. We derived five regression equations with high statistical correlations for flux deviations and successfully incorporated this efficient parameterization into WRF model, which was used as the testbed in connection with the Fu-Liou-Gu PP radiation scheme that has been included in the WRF physics package. Incorporating this 3D parameterization program, we conducted simulations of WRF and CCSM4 to understand and evaluate the mountain/snow effect on snow albedo reduction during seasonal transition and the interannual variability for snowmelt, cloud cover, and precipitation over the Western United States presented in the final report. With reference to item (2), we developed in our previous research a geometric-optics surface-wave approach (GOS) for the computation of light absorption and scattering by complex and inhomogeneous particles for application to aggregates and snow grains with external and internal mixing structures. We demonstrated that a small black (BC) particle on the order of 1 μm internally mixed with snow grains could effectively reduce visible snow albedo by as much as 5–10%. Following this work and within the context of DOE support, we have made two key accomplishments presented in the attached final report.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Analyses of Field Test Data at the Atucha-1 Spent Fuel Pools

A field test was conducted at the Atucha-1 spent nuclear fuel pools to validate a software package for gross defect detection that is used in conjunction with the inspection tool, Spent Fuel Neutron Counter (SFNC). A set of measurements was taken with the SFNC and the software predictions were compared with these data and analyzed. The data spanned a wide range of cooling times and a set of burnup levels leading to count rates from the several hundreds to around twenty per second. The current calibration in the software using linear fitting required the use of multiple calibration factors to cover the entire range of count rates recorded. The solution to this was to use power regression data fitting to normalize the predicted response and derive one calibration factor that can be applied to the entire set of data. The resulting comparisons between the predicted and measured responses were generally good and provided a quantitative method of detecting missing fuel in virtually all situations. Since the current version of the software uses the linear calibration method, it would need to be updated with the new power regression method to make it more user-friendly for real time verification and fieldable for the range of responses that will be encountered.

98 NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT, SAFEGUARDS, AND PHYSICAL P↗

Meta-Analysis of the Oil Price Elasticity of the GDP for Policy Analysis: Documentation

Given the important role of oil in economic activities, policy makers are interested in estimates of the potential damage to the economy from oil price shocks, particularly during periods of rapid and large increases that accompany severe shocks. Such estimates are needed to quantify the economic costs of oil price shocks, and to evaluate the potential benefits of alternative policy responses. Although research on the economic impacts of oil price shocks is extensive and has generally found that large increases in oil prices exert negative economic impacts, the range of estimates, summarized by the oil price elasticity of the GDP or other aggregate measure of economic activity, is very wide. There are also conditions under which the relationship between the oil price and the economy could be positive. The range of estimates of the oil price elasticity of the GDP for the United States is typified by averages from the studies of Hamilton (2005, 2012) and Kilian and Vigfusson (2014), in which the implied elasticities were -0.014 to - 0.069 and +0.004 to -0.052, respectively. We employ a meta-regression approach to systematically summarize available estimates of the oil price elasticity of the GDP for oil importing economies, and examine the role of key factors. The resulting regression model was used to estimate the oil price elasticity of the GDP for the United States. Based on this we estimate the mean elasticity for the United States at -0.0238, with a 68% confidence interval of -0.0075 to -0.0402, four quarters after a shock.

02 PETROLEUM↗

Field evaluation of remote wind sensing technologies: Shore-based and buoy mounted LIDAR systems

In developing a national energy strategy, the United States has a number of objectives, including increasing economic growth, improving environmental quality, and enhancing national energy security. Wind power contributes to these objectives through the deployment of clean, affordable and reliable domestic energy. To achieve U.S. wind generation objectives, the Wind and Water Power Program within the Department of Energy’s (DOE) Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) instituted the U.S. Offshore Wind: Removing Market Barriers Program in FY 2011. Accurate and comprehensive information on offshore wind resource characteristics across a range of spatial and temporal scales is one market barrier that needs to be addressed through advanced research in remote sensing technologies. There is a pressing need for reliable offshore wind-speed measurements to assess the availability of the potential wind energy resource in terms of power production and to identify any frequently occurring spatial variability in the offshore wind resource that may impact the operational reliability and lifetime of wind turbines and their components and to provide a verification program to validate the “bankability” of the output of these alternative technologies for use by finance institutions for the financing of offshore wind farm construction. The application of emerging remote sensing technologies is viewed as a means to cost-effectively meet the data needs of the offshore wind industry. In particular, scanning and buoy mounted LIDAR have been proposed as a means to obtain accurate offshore wind data at multiple locations without the high cost and regulatory hurdles associated with the construction of offshore meteorological towers. However; before these remote sensing technologies can be accepted the validity of the measured data must be evaluated to ensure their accuracy. The proposed research will establish a unique coastal ocean test-bed in the Mid-Atlantic for the evaluation of LIDAR-based wind measurement systems to validate the accuracy of remotely measured wind data in marine applications. Specifically, the test-bed will be utilized to systematically evaluate the capability of emerging scanning LIDAR and buoy mounted vertically profiling LIDAR by: (1) Evaluating a fixed scanning LIDAR against land-based 50 and 60 meter high meteorological masts fitted with research quality cup-vane and/or sonic anemometers; (2) Evaluating a buoy mounted vertically profiling LIDAR fixed on land and floating in a sheltered bay against a co-located 60 meter high meteorological mast fitted with a research quality cup-vane and/or sonic anemometers and the fixed scanning LIDAR; and (3) Offshore field evaluation of both LIDAR platforms through a comparison of the fixed scanning LIDAR data and data obtained by the buoy mounted LIDAR located 10 miles offshore. The proposed research will systematically validate Light Detection and Ranging (LIDAR) based wind measurement systems and assess the temporal and spatial variability of the offshore wind resource in the Mid-Atlantic east of New Jersey. The goal of the proposed project is to address the technical and commercial challenges of the offshore wind energy industry by validating and assessing cost-effective, over ocean wind resource characterization technologies. The objective is to systematically evaluate the capability of both scanning and vertically profiling LIDARs to accurately measure 3D wind fields through comparison with fixed met masts and intercomparison among LIDAR platforms. Once validated, data collected by both buoy mounted vertically profiling LIDARs and shore-based, pulsed horizontally scanning LIDARs can be used to accurately assess offshore wind resources and to quantify the spatial and temporal variability in the offshore wind fields. One of the fundamental research questions to be addressed in phase 1 is the assessment of various measurement and data processing schemes to retrieve accurate wind vectors in the marine environment over large sampling ranges (10 to 12 km) and varying atmospheric aerosol levels. Atmospheric conditions and aerosol content within the coastal ocean region of the Mid-Atlantic seaboard of the US can vary significantly over short time periods in response to frontal passages and extratropical and tropical low pressure system passage offshore of the coast. Since aerosols provide the scattering medium for the determination of LIDAR Doppler shifts in the atmosphere the accuracy and range of LIDAR derived velocity measurements as a function of variation in aerosol content in the marine environment is a key research question to be addressed. In phase 1, it is desired to capture as much variation in atmospheric conditions and aerosol content as possible. To this end, collocated measurements of LIDAR and standard anemometer wind fields will be captured by the project PIs over all four seasons and during specific events (e.g., coastal low pressure system passage) in year 1. Additionally, since the meteorological masts are permanent structures, additional events can be captured over the three year duration of the field research project. All research instruments are owned by Fishermen’s Energy and made available to the PIs though a lease agreement as part of the DOE grant. Energy Fishermen’s Energy will be responsible for the operation and maintenance of the scanning LIDAR and met mast anemometers. On a daily basis, environmental data and systems performance indicators will be transmitted from each measurement station to the Fishermen’s project team consisting of both in-house personnel and equipment manufacturer engineers. Data sets include compiled LIDAR files as well as data sets from ancillary sensors. Diagnostic parameters to be monitored include standard deviations of measured values, battery levels and charging systems output, and the operational status. Once data have been confirmed as complete and reliable, files will be transferred to the Garrad Hassan (a subcontractor to Fishermen’s Energy) for incorporation in to the validation database, which is accessible to other scientific team members. Data collection times and durations will be determined by the PI and Co-PIs in consultation with instrument engineers to ensure the capture of data representative of the expected range of mid-Atlantic atmospheric conditions (e.g., temperature, moisture, coastal low pressure systems, tropical systems, rain, snow, fog). The collection and processing of the data is a function of site specific measurement requirements (Kelley et.al. 2007; Hannon et.al. 2008). To determine the optimal profiles of wind speed and direction from the LIDAR radial velocities as a function of azimuth angle, rigorous estimates of the bias and random error of each radial velocity estimate are required. Lockheed Martin Coherent Technologies, Inc., under contract with Fishermen’s Energy, will provide analyses of raw and processed data using various scan patterns to determine optimal performance settings for the pulsed scanning LIDAR. Once optimized, appropriate processing and analyses techniques will be evaluated by Garrad Hassan for use in validating the accuracy of the LIDAR wind field measurements against the standard anemometer measurements from the meteorological masts. The most attractive capability of the scanning LIDAR is the ability to provide high spatial resolution observations in a three-dimensional volume which provides superior statistical accuracy due to the large number of samples obtained. Each radial scan provides measurements in 100 range gates over a distance of 10 to 12 km at an update rate of 5 to 10 Hz and rotation of 2.5° per second. Each rotation at a fixed azimuth requires 2.4 minutes. Depending on the number of azimuths desired a complete scan can take up to 10 minutes or longer to complete. Once collected the radial velocities are processed to produce vector wind velocity estimates based on a set of data distributed in angle and range around points of interest, typically a standard grid within the radial wind map. To calculate wind vectors over a limited spatial area of interest for the comparison of data with other measurement platforms a localized least-squares approach has been applied by Hannon et.al. (2008) and a Variation Assimilation (VAR) processing technique has been applied by Chan and al Assimilation (VAR) processing technique has been applied by Chan and Shao (2006). Additionally, Kelley et.al. (2007) applied a “stare” technique that fixed a scanning LIDAR in both azimuth and elevation angles to measure over collocated sampling volumes of the LIDAR and a 3D sonic anemometer mounted to a fixed mast. Although the stare technique is limited to wind directions aligned with the sampling radial of the LIDAR, it does provide a direct comparison of sampling volumes. Each of the processing techniques described above (and possibly others) will be evaluated to determine the validity of the LIDAR derived wind fields in the marine environment. Numerical methods such as linear regression and comparison of probability density functions of wind fields measured by each instrument platform will be used to assess the processing techniques. Linear regression has the advantage of directly evaluating corresponding pairs of wind data measured by each instrument and can lend insight into deviations and bias between instruments as a function of wind speed. Assessment of the coherency between the probability density function of the wind measured by each instrument provides insight into processes that may not be accurately resolved by each instrument at specific frequencies. Once processed and assessed the most appropriate technique will be utilized to provide valid wind measurements from the pulsed scanning LIDAR. A detailed analysis of the measurement data from the LIDAR and the three meteorological towers and comparison of the coastal wind characteristics from the different systems will be performed by the CO_PI at NREL. This analysis will evaluate how the WT LIDAR performance and measurement of the wind characteristics vary with distance from the LIDAR and by atmospheric conditions; using the tower measurements at different distances (4.8, 9.6, and 19 km) from the LIDAR as a reference. The comparative analysis will include, to the extent possible, evaluation of parameters such as wind speed and direction distributions, wind shear, turbulence intensity and their variations by atmospheric conditions, month or season, and time of day.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Assessment of Potential Impact of Electromagnetic Fields from Undersea Cable on Migratory Fish Behavior

The US Department of Energy and US Department of the Interior, Bureau of Ocean Energy Management commissioned this study to address the limited scientific data on the impacts of high voltage direct current cables on aquatic biota, in particular migratory species within the San Francisco Bay. Empirical evidence exists that marine animals perceive and orient to local distortions in the earth’s main geomagnetic field magnetic field. The electromagnetic fields (EMF) generated by the cables that carry electricity from hydrokinetic energy sources to shore-based power stations may produce similar local distortions in the earth’s main field. Concern exists that animals that migrate along the continental shelves might orient to the EMF from the cables, and move either inshore or offshore away from their normal path. The Trans Bay Cable (TBC) is a ±200-kilovolt (kV), 400 MW 85-km long High Voltage Direct Current (DC) buried transmission line linking Pittsburg, CA with San Francisco, CA (SF) through the San Francisco Bay. The study addresses the following specific questions based on measurements and projections of the EMF produced by an existing marine cable, the TBC, in San Francisco Bay. Specifically, does the presence of EMF from an operating power cable alter the behavior and path of bony fishes and sharks along a migratory corridor? Does the EMF from an operating power cable guide migratory movements or pose an obstacle to movement? To meet the main study objectives several activities needed to be carried out: 1) modeling of the magnetic fields produced by the TBC, 2) assessing the migratory impacts on Chinook salmon smolts (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) and green sturgeon (Acipenser medirostris) as a result of local magnetic field distortions produced by bridge structures and 3) analyzing behavioral responses by migratory Chinook salmon and green sturgeon to a high-voltage power cable. To meet the first objective, magnetic field measurements were made using two submerged Geometrics magnetometers towed behind a survey vessel in four locations in the San Francisco estuary along profiles crossing the cable path. We applied basic formulas to describe magnetic field from a DC cable summed vectorially with the background geomagnetic field (in the absence of other sources that would perturb the ambient field) to derive characteristics of the cable not immediately or otherwise observable. The magnetic field profiles of 76 survey lines were regressed against the measured fields, representing eight days of measurement. Many profiles were dominated by field distortions caused by bridge structures or other submerged objects, and the cable contribution to the field was not detectable. The regressions based on fundamental principles (Biot Savart law) and the vectorial summation of cable and geomagnetic fields provide estimates of cable characteristics consistent with plausible expectations. For the second objective, detailed gradiometer survey were examined. Distortions in the earth’s main field produced by bridges across the estuary were much greater than those from the TBC. The former anomalies exceeded the latter by an order of magnitude or more. Significant numbers of tagged Chinook salmon smolts migrated past bridges, which produced strong magnetic anomalies, to the Golden Gate Bridge, where they were recorded by dual arrays of acoustic tag-detecting monitors moored in lines across the mouth of the bay. Adult green sturgeon successfully swam upstream and downstream through the estuary on the way to and from their spawning grounds. Hence, the large anomalies produced by the bridges that run perpendicular to these migration routes do not appear to present a strong barrier to the natural seasonal movement patterns of salmonid smolts and adult green sturgeon. Finally, to assess the behavioral responses by migratory Chinook salmon and green sturgeon to a high- voltage power cable - the potential impacts effect of the TBC on fishes migrating through the San Francisco Estuary were examined. These included late-fall run Chinook salmon smolts (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) that migrate downstream through the San Francisco Estuary to the Pacific Ocean and adult green sturgeon (Acipenser medirostris), which migrate upstream from the ocean through the estuary to their spawning habitat in the upper Sacramento River and return to the ocean after spawning occurs. Our results indicate Chinook salmon smolts may be attracted to the cable after activation (more cable location crossings, more detections at Bay Bridge, high importance of distance to cable in predicting fish location), but are not impeded from successfully migrating through the San Francisco Bay (similar proportions of successful exits, faster transit rates). Cable activity had opposite effects on outbound and inbound green sturgeon migrations: outbound migrations had significantly longer transit times while inbound migrations had significantly shorter migration times. However, the proportion of green sturgeon that successfully migrated through the San Francisco Bay was not strongly impacted after cable activation for either migration type. Based on the work, we provide the following conclusions: 1) calculations of magnetic fields for assessment of marine life can be performed; however, local anomalies in the fields resulting from submerged structures require validation of such calculations through collection of ambient DC magnetic field data, 2) the large anomalies produced by the bridges that run perpendicular to these migration routes do not appear to present a strong barrier to the natural seasonal movement patterns of salmonid smolts and adult green sturgeon and 3) Chinook salmon smolts may be attracted to the activated cable based on analysis of cable crossing, misdirections, and first presence at the array data, however, the cable activation does not appear to change the proportion of smolts that successfully migrate through the San Francisco Bay. Cable activation impacts inbound and outbound migrating adult green sturgeon: travel time was increased for outbound migrations but decreased for inbound migrations. However, cable activation did not appear to impact the success of either migration type in this species.

63 RADIATION, THERMAL, AND OTHER ENVIRON. POLLUTAN↗

Overhead longwave infrared hyperspectral material identification using radiometric models

Material detection algorithms used in hyperspectral data processing are computationally efficient but can produce relatively high numbers of false positives. Material identification performed as a secondary processing step on detected pixels can help separate true and false positives. This paper presents a material identification processing chain for longwave infrared hyperspectral data of solid materials collected from airborne platforms. The algorithms utilize unwhitened radiance data and an iterative algorithm that determines the temperature, humidity, and ozone of the atmospheric profile. Pixel unmixing is done using constrained linear regression and Bayesian Information Criteria for model selection. The resulting product includes an optimal atmospheric profile and full radiance material model that includes material temperature, abundance values, and several fit statistics. A logistic regression method utilizing all model parameters to improve identification is also presented. This paper details the processing chain and provides justification for the algorithms used. Several examples are provided using modeled data at different noise levels.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

An Investigation into Solution Verification for CFD-DEM

This report presents the study of the convergence behavior of the computational fluid dynamicsdiscrete element method (CFD-DEM) method, specifically National Energy Technology Laboratory’s (NETL) open source MFiX code (MFiX-DEM) with a diffusion based particle-tocontinuum filtering scheme. In particular, this study focused on determining if the numerical method had a solution in the high-resolution limit where the grid size is smaller than the particle size. To address this uncertainty, fixed particle beds of two primary configurations were studied: i) fictitious beds where the particles are seeded with a random particle generator, and ii) instantaneous snapshots from a transient simulation of an experimentally relevant problem. Both problems considered a uniform inlet boundary and a pressure outflow. The CFD grid was refined from a few particle diameters down to 1/6 th of a particle diameter. The pressure drop between two vertical elevations, averaged across the bed cross-section was considered as the system response quantity of interest. A least-squares regression method was used to extrapolate the grid-dependent results to an approximate “grid-free” solution in the limit of infinite resolution. The results show that the diffusion based scheme does yield a converging solution. However, the convergence is more complicated than encountered in simpler, single-phase flow problems showing strong oscillations and, at times, oscillations superimposed on top of globally non-monotonic behavior. The challenging convergence behavior highlights the importance of using at least four grid resolutions in solution verification problems so that (over-determined) regression-based extrapolation methods may be applied to approximate the grid-free solution. The grid-free solution is very important in solution verification and VVUQ exercise in general as the difference between it and the reference solution largely determines the numerical uncertainty. By testing different randomized particle configurations of the same general problem (for the fictitious case) or different instances of freezing a transient simulation, the numerical uncertainties appeared to be on the same order of magnitude as ensemble or time averaging uncertainties. By testing different drag laws, almost all cases studied show that model form uncertainty in this one, very important closure relation was larger than the numerical uncertainty, at least with a reasonable CFD grid, roughly five particle diameters. In this study, the diffusion width (filtering length scale) was mostly set at a constant of six particle diameters. A few exploratory tests were performed to show that similar convergence behavior was observed for diffusion widths greater than approximately two particle diameters. However, this subject was not investigated in great detail because determining an appropriate filter size is really a validation question which must be determined by comparison to experimental or highly accurate numerical data. Future studies are being considered targeting solution verification of transient simulations as well as validation of the filter size with direct numerical simulation data.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Sierra/SolidMechanics 4.46 Example Problems Manual

Presented in this document are tests that exist in the Sierra/SolidMechanics example problem suite, which is a subset of the Sierra/SM regression and performance test suite. These examples showcase common and advanced code capabilities. A wide variety of other regression and verification tests exist in the Sierra/SM test suite that are not included in this manual.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗