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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

Roles of the atmosphere and ocean in the projected north atlantic warming hole

There exists a warming deficit in sea surface temperatures (SST) over the subpolar North Atlantic in response to quadrupled CO 2 , referred to as the projected North Atlantic warming hole (WH). This study employs a partial coupling technique to accurately verify the relative roles of oceanic and atmospheric processes in the formation of the projected WH within an atmosphere-ocean coupled framework. By decomposing the SST anomalies in the subpolar North Atlantic into two components: those induced by atmospheric processes (i.e., the atmosphere-forced component) and those driven by changes in ocean circulation (i.e., the ocean-driven component), we find that the projected WH is primarily driven by changes in ocean circulation, with almost no contribution from atmospheric processes. Specifically, the slowdown of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) results in a cooling of SST in the WH region due to reduced northward ocean heat transport into this region. This study further quantifies the influence of a positive coupled feedback through surface heat flux (SHF) on the AMOC response under greenhouse gas forcing within this self-consistent framework. It is found that the AMOC slowdown leads to a negative SST anomaly in the subpolar North Atlantic and subsequently a positive ocean-driven SHF anomaly, which in turn further weakens the AMOC. In conclusion, this positive feedback through the SHF contributes about 50% to the total AMOC slowdown in response to quadrupled CO 2 .

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Climate models project increasing precipitation in the US Southwest in 2024–2100

We analyzed the measured precipitation in the southwestern US and found that, from 1900 to 2024, precipitation decreased at an average rate of − 1.2 cm per year per 100 years. The most significant precipitation decreases occurred in the three-month period from February to April. At the same time, precipitation during the southwestern monsoon season (July, August, and September) remained relatively stable. The ensemble mean of all CMIP6 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6) climate models, along with the regression model incorporating anthropogenic aerosol (AER) and Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) as predictors, projects precipitation to increase from 2024 to 2100. This projected precipitation increase relies on the anticipated decrease in emissions of anthropogenic aerosols, which is associated with the transition from fossil fuel burning to renewable and nuclear energy sources.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

The Magnetized Indirect Drive Project on the National Ignition Facility

A new project is underway at the National Ignition Facility with the goal of applying a seed magnetic field to the fusion fuel in an indirect drive hohlraum implosion and quantifying the effect on the hot-spot temperature, shape and neutron yield. Magnetizing fusion fuel is calculated to reduce heat loss from the implosion core by constraining the motion of electrons and fusion-generated alpha particles; this can improve the chances of achieving high-gain fusion in a laboratory plasma. Here, we describe the goals of this project and the significant scientific and technological challenges which must be overcome for this project to succeed.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2015

Projected Changes in Mean and Interannual Variability of Surface Water over Continental China

Five General Circulation Model (GCM) climate projections under the RCP8.5 emission scenario were used to drive the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) hydrologic model to investigate the impacts of climate change on hydrologic cycle over continental China in the 21st century. The bias-corrected climatic variables were generated for the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC AR5) by the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISI-MIP). Results showed much larger fractional changes of annual mean Evaportranspiration (ET) per unit warming than the corresponding fractional changes of Precipitation (P) per unit warming across the country especially for South China, which led to notable decrease of surface water variability (P-E). Specifically, negative trends for annual mean runoff up to -0.33%/decade and soil moisture trends varying between -0.02 to -0.13%/decade were found for most river basins across China. Coincidentally, interannual variability for both runoff and soil moisture exhibited significant positive trends for almost all river basins across China, implying an increase in extremes relative to the mean conditions. Noticeably, the largest positive trends for runoff variability and soil moisture variability, which were up to 38 0.41%/decade and 0.90%/decade, both occurred in Southwest China. In addition to the regional contrast, intra-seasonal variation was also large for the runoff mean and runoff variability changes, but small for the soil moisture mean and variability changes. Our results suggest that future climate change could further exacerbate existing water-related risks (e.g. floods and droughts) across China as indicated by the marked decrease of surface water amounts combined with steady increase of interannual variability throughout the 21st century. This study highlights the regional contrast and intra-seasonal variations for the projected hydrologic changes and could provide muti-scale guidance for assessing effective adaptation strategies for the country on a river basin, regional, or as whole.

China↗
DOE OSTI2020

Co-optimizing water-alternating-carbon dioxide injection projects using a machine learning assisted computational framework

In this report, a robust machine-learning-based computational framework that couples multi-layer neural network (MLNN) proxies and a multi-objective particle swarm optimizer (MOPSO) to design water-alternating-carbon dioxide injection (CO 2 -WAG) projects is presented. The proposed optimization protocol considers various objectives, including oil recovery and CO 2 storage volume. Expert MLNN systems are trained and employed as surrogate models of the high-fidelity compositional simulator in the optimization workflow. When multiple objective functions are considered, two approaches are employed to treat the objectives: the weighted sum method and the Pareto-front-based scheme. A field-scale implementation focusing on tertiary recovery in the Morrow B formation at Farnsworth Unit (FWU) is presented. The developed Pareto-optimal solutions indicate the maximal available oil production can be 1.64 × 10 7 barrels and maximal carbon storage can achieve 2.35 × 10 7 tons. Trade-offs factor is defined to divide the constructed Pareto front into 4 sections with the trade-off factors’ value ranges from 0.35 to 49.9. This work also compares the optimum solution found by the aggregative objective function and the solution repository covered by the Pareto front that considers the physical and operational constraints and reduces uncertainties involved by the multi-objective optimization process. Our comparison indicates multiple solutions exist to satisfy the objective criteria of the WAG design, and these results cannot be found using the traditional weighted sum method. The Pareto front solution can provide more options for project designers, but decisions regarding necessary trade-offs must be made using the solution repository to balance the project economics and CO 2 storage amount.

10 SYNTHETIC FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2024

When do different scenarios of projected electricity demand start to meaningfully diverge?

Resource adequacy studies look at balancing electricity supply and demand on 10- to 15-year time horizons while asset investment planning typically evaluates returns on 20- to 40-year time horizons. Projections of electricity demand are factored into the decision-making in both cases. Climate, energy policy, and socioeconomic changes are key uncertainties known to influence electricity demands, but their relative importance for demands over the next 10-40 years is unclear. The power sector would benefit from a better understanding of the need to characterize these uncertainties for resource adequacy and investment planning. In this study, we quantify when projected United States (U.S.) electricity demands start to meaningfully diverge in response to a range of climate, energy policy, and socioeconomic drivers. Here we use a wide yet plausible range of 21st century scenarios for the U.S. The projections span two population/economic growth scenarios (Shared Socioeconomic Pathways 3 and 5) and two climate/energy policy scenarios, one including climate mitigation policies and one without (Representative Concentration Pathways 4.5 and 8.5). Each climate/energy policy scenario has two warming levels to reflect a range of climate model uncertainty. We show that the socioeconomic scenario matters almost immediately – within the next 10 years, the climate/policy scenario matters within 25-30 years, and the climate model uncertainty matters only after 50+ years. This work can inform the power sector working to integrate climate change uncertainties into their decision-making.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2019

Dual MeV gamma-ray and dark matter observatory - GRAMS Project

GRAMS (Gamma-Ray and AntiMatter Survey) is a new project that can simultaneously target both astrophysical observations with MeV gamma rays and an indirect dark matter search with antimatter. The GRAMS instrument is designed with a cost-effective, large-scale LArTPC (Liquid Argon Time Projection Chamber) detector surrounded by plastic scintillators. The astrophysical observations at MeV energies have not yet been investigated (the so-called “MeV-gap”) and GRAMS can improve the sensitivity by more than an order of magnitude compared to previous experiments. While primarily focusing on MeV gamma-ray observations, GRAMS is also optimized for cosmic ray antimatter surveys to indirectly search for dark matter. In particular, low-energy antideuterons will provide an essentially background-free dark matter signature. GRAMS will be a next generation experiment beyond the current GAPS (General AntiParticle Spectrometer) project for antimatter survey.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2016

OC5 Project Phase Ib: Validation of hydrodynamic loading on a fixed, flexible cylinder for offshore wind applications

This paper summarizes the findings from Phase Ib of the Offshore Code Comparison, Collaboration, Continued with Correlation (OC5) project. OC5 is a project run under the International Energy Agency (IEA) Wind Research Task 30, and is focused on validating the tools used for modelling offshore wind systems through the comparison of simulated responses of select offshore wind systems (and components) to physical test data. For Phase Ib of the project, simulated hydrodynamic loads on a flexible cylinder fixed to a sloped bed were validated against test measurements made in the shallow water basin at the Danish Hydraulic Institute (DHI) with support from the Technical University of Denmark (DTU). The first phase of OC5 examined two simple cylinder structures (Phase Ia and Ib) to focus on validation of hydrodynamic models used in the various tools before moving on to more complex offshore wind systems and the associated coupled physics. As a result, verification and validation activities such as these lead to improvement of offshore wind modelling tools, which will enable the development of more innovative and cost-effective offshore wind designs.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2017

OC5 Project Phase II: Validation of Global Loads of the DeepCwind Floating Semisubmersible Wind Turbine

This paper summarizes the findings from Phase II of the Offshore Code Comparison, Collaboration, Continued, with Correlation project. The project is run under the International Energy Agency Wind Research Task 30, and is focused on validating the tools used for modeling offshore wind systems through the comparison of simulated responses of select system designs to physical test data. Validation activities such as these lead to improvement of offshore wind modeling tools, which will enable the development of more innovative and cost-effective offshore wind designs. For Phase II of the project, numerical models of the DeepCwind floating semisubmersible wind system were validated using measurement data from a 1/50th-scale validation campaign performed at the Maritime Research Institute Netherlands offshore wave basin. Validation of the models was performed by comparing the calculated ultimate and fatigue loads for eight different wave-only and combined wind/wave test cases against the measured data, after calibration was performed using free-decay, wind-only, and wave-only tests. The results show a decent estimation of both the ultimate and fatigue loads for the simulated results, but with a fairly consistent underestimation in the tower and upwind mooring line loads that can be attributed to an underestimation of wave-excitation forces outside the linear wave-excitation region, and the presence of broadband frequency excitation in the experimental measurements from wind. Participant results showed varied agreement with the experimental measurements based on the modeling approach used. Modeling attributes that enabled better agreement included: the use of a dynamic mooring model; wave stretching, or some other hydrodynamic modeling approach that excites frequencies outside the linear wave region; nonlinear wave kinematics models; and unsteady aerodynamics models. Also, it was observed that a Morison-only hydrodynamic modeling approach could create excessive pitch excitation and resulting tower loads in some frequency bands.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2012

Promoting system-level learning from project-level lessons

A growing number of low and middle income nations (LMCs) have adopted some sort of system for environmental impact assessment (EIA). However, generally many of these EIA systems are characterised by a low performance in terms of timely information dissemination, monitoring and enforcement after licencing. Donor actors (such as the World Bank) have attempted to contribute to a higher performance of EIA systems in LMCs by intervening at two levels: the project level (e.g. by providing scoping advice or EIS quality review) and the system level (e.g. by advising on EIA legislation or by capacity building). The aims of these interventions are environmental protection in concrete cases and enforcing the institutionalisation of environmental protection, respectively. Learning by actors involved is an important condition for realising these aims. A relatively underexplored form of learning concerns learning at EIA system-level via project level donor interventions. This 'indirect' learning potentially results in system changes that better fit the specific context(s) and hence contribute to higher performances. Our exploratory research in Ghana and the Maldives shows that thus far, 'indirect' learning only occurs incidentally and that donors play a modest role in promoting it. Barriers to indirect learning are related to the institutional context rather than to individual characteristics. Moreover, 'indirect' learning seems to flourish best in large projects where donors achieved a position of influence that they can use to evoke reflection upon system malfunctions. In order to enhance learning at all levels donors should thereby present the outcomes of the intervention elaborately (i.e. discuss the outcomes with a large audience), include practical suggestions about post-EIS activities such as monitoring procedures and enforcement options and stimulate the use of their advisory reports to generate organisational memory and ensure a better information dissemination.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2013

Social impact assessment in mining projects in Northern Finland: Comparing practice to theory

The paper discusses social impact assessments (SIA) for mining projects in light of the international principles and guidelines for such assessments and the academic literature in the field. The data consist of environmental impact assessment (EIA) programmes and reports for six mining projects that have started up in northern Finland in the 2000s. A first observation is that the role of the SIAs in the EIA programmes and reports studied was quite minor: measured in number of pages, the assessments account for three or four percent of the total. This study analyses the data collection, research methodology and conceptual premises used in the SIAs. It concludes that the assessments do not fully meet the high standards of the international principles and guidelines set out for them: for example, elderly men are over-represented in the data and no efforts were made to identify and bring to the fore vulnerable groups. Moreover, the reliability of the assessments is difficult to gauge, because the qualitative methods are not described and where quantitative methods were used, details such as non-response rates to questionnaires are not discussed. At the end of the paper, the SIAs are discussed in terms of Jürgen Habermas' theory of knowledge interests, with the conclusion that the assessments continue the empirical analytical tradition of the social sciences and exhibit a technical knowledge interest. -- Highlights: • Paper investigates social impact assessments in Finnish mining projects. • Role of social impact assessment is minor in whole EIA-process. • Mining SIAs give the voice for elderly men, vulnerable groups are not identified. • Assessment of SIAs is difficult because of lacking transparency in reporting. • SIAs belong to empirical analytical tradition with technical knowledge interest.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2017

Assessing the social sustainability contribution of an infrastructure project under conditions of uncertainty

Assessing the viability of a public infrastructure includes economic, technical and environmental aspects; however, on many occasions, the social aspects are not always adequately considered. This article proposes a procedure to estimate the social sustainability of infrastructure projects under conditions of uncertainty, based on a multicriteria deterministic method. The variability of the method inputs is contributed by the decision-makers. Uncertain inputs are treated through uniform and beta PERT distributions. The Monte Carlo method is used to propagate uncertainty in the method. A case study of a road infrastructure improvement in El Salvador is used to illustrate this treatment. The main results determine the variability of the short and long-term social improvement indices by infrastructure and the probability of the position in the prioritization of the alternatives. The proposed mechanism improves the reliability of the decision making early in infrastructure projects, taking their social contribution into account. The results can complement environmental and economic sustainability assessments. - Highlights: •Estimate the social sustainability of infrastructure projects under conditions of uncertainty •The method uses multicriteria and Monte Carlo techniques and beta PERT distributions •Determines variability of the short and long term social improvement •Determines probability in the prioritization of alternatives •Improves reliability of decision making considering the social contribution.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2018

Environmental impact assessment follow-up for projects in China: Institution and practice

Highlights: • As an essential part of the environmental management system required by the EIA Law, the EIA follow-up was poorly executed. • The effectiveness of the EIA follow-up could be greatly elevated by enhancing monitoring and public participation. • Environmental information disclosure plays the essential role in promoting the EIA follow-up. - Abstract: The Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) is one of the important means of environmental management worldwide, and the EIA follow-up is one of the crucial measures to ensure the concrete implementation of the EIA. In this research, systematic reviews of EIA follow-up for projects in China were conducted to comprehensively appraise the implementation of the EIA follow-up and to identify the potential to improve the practice of an EIA follow-up. First, the EIA follow-up reports were collected through various sources. In total, there were 74 EIA follow-up reports that were identified and acquired. Second, a reviewing framework, containing 16 different indicators, was developed to systematically document and classify these EIA follow-up reports. Third, these EIA follow-up reports were grouped into several categories according to various indicators and then were analyzed to recognize their key features, including sources of data, analytic tools adopted, spatial-temporal distribution, industrial distribution, triggering causes, content, structure and effectiveness. The results showed that there were considerable disparities in the quality and the rigor of EIA follow-ups conducted. These features, along with some existing deficiencies of EIA follow-up, such as the lack of corresponding monitoring and management, can greatly limit the overall application and effectiveness of EIA follow-up in China. However, a number of good practices were identified. For example, a list of projects subject to mandatory EIA follow-up was promulgated, and the conditions for projects subject to EIA follow-up were explicitly stipulated in regulations. These good practices would be very helpful for the international EIA community to advance the practice of EIA follow-up, to reduce the disparities in the quality and the rigor of EIA follow-up, to improve the overall effectiveness of EIA follow-up and to promote the future implementation and development of EIA follow-up.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Evaluation of integrated daylighting and electric lighting design projects: Lessons learned from international case studies

This article presents and discusses the lessons learned from the monitoring of 25 integrated daylighting and electric lighting international case study projects. The case studies consist of real occupied buildings that have been monitored as part of the International Energy Agency (IEA) SHC Task 61/EBC Annex 77 Programme. The general goal of the case studies was to balance lighting energy use with occupants’ visual and non-visual requirements. This was achieved using innovative solutions for daylighting and electric lighting with advanced controls, but also implementing simple and out-of-the-box strategies. The findings suggest that energy demands for lighting can significantly be reduced by combining sensible daylight provision, efficient lighting sources, and advances in controls. Yet, the effective achievement of project goals requires adequate monitoring, fine-tuning, and verification. The findings also suggest that the adoption of “integrative” lighting – that is, lighting systems that address both visual and non-visual responses – is getting increasingly popular. Catering to non-visual requirements will likely drive further innovation in lighting technology. Currently, there is limited investment available for developing daylighting systems for integrative lighting, and the current related electric strategies often come at the risk of energy rebound effects. Overall, providing daylighting and understanding user requirements are fundamental steps towards achieving quality projects, with potential benefits beyond saving energy.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2016

Climate Mitigation in Latin America: Implications for Energy and Land Use: Preface to the Special Section on the findings of the CLIMACAP-LAMP Project

The CLIMACAP-LAMP project, completed in December 2015, was an inter-model comparison exercise that focused on energy and climate change economics issues in Latin America. The project partners – co-financed by the EC / EuropeAid (CLIMACAP part) and EPA / USAID (LAMP part) and co-coordinated by respectively the Energy research Centre of the Netherlands (ECN) and the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) – report their main and detailed findings in this Special Issue of Energy Economics, exclusively dedicated to climate mitigation, low-carbon development and implications for energy and land use in Latin America. Our research endeavor included several of the most prominent regional energy modeling groups from Latin America, as well as a representative set of global integrated assessment modeling groups from a number of institutions from Europe and the US. About two dozen universities, research groups and environmental or consulting organizations took part in the CLIMACAP-LAMP cross-model comparison project, from both sides of the Atlantic. Over a handful of workshops were organized over the past four years in several countries in Latin America, attended by between 30 and 50 participants from, amongst others, Argentina, Brazil, Colombia, Mexico, the EU, and the US.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2018

Accounting for adaptation and intensity in projecting heat wave-related mortality

Highlights: • We propose novel models for intensity of and adaptation to heat waves in projections of heat wave- mortality. • The modeling used a large national dataset and the projections used a rich set of climate models and scenarios. • Future heat wave-related mortality would be substantially overestimated, if adaptation were ignored. • The time trend of future heat wave-related mortality will vary substantially across climate regions. How adaptation and intensity of heat waves affect heat wave-related mortality is unclear, making health projections difficult.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2018

Projecting environmental suitable areas for malaria transmission in China under climate change scenarios

Highlights: • Climate change may form new area suitable for malaria but little is known in China. • A set of environmental factors was used in MaxEnt model to identify suitable areas. • A slightly wider areas extended to the northeast was projected for P. falciparum. • Suitable areas are projected to increase more under RCP8.5 scenarios. • Most imported cases occurred in areas suitable for malaria transmission. The proportion of imported malaria cases in China has increased over recent years, and has presented challenges for the malaria elimination program in China. However, little is known about the geographic distribution and environmental suitability for malaria transmission under projected climate change scenarios.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2015

Lessons learned from the pioneering hot dry rock project at Fenton Hill, USA

Interest in geothermal energy production has grown rapidly in recent years due to the increasing demand for clean, renewable, domestic energy. Recent publications have suggested that geothermal energy from Enhanced Geothermal Systems could satisfy a large portion of the energy needs in the U.S. if the technology were implemented on a large scale. Pertinent to this goal are many of the lessons learned from the pioneering Hot Dry Rock project aimed at producing usable energy form the heat of the earth, conducted from 1970 to 1995 at Fenton Hill, New Mexico, USA. During this project, the Los Alamos National Laboratory created and tested two reservoirs at depths in the range of 2.8–3.5 km in crystalline rock formations underlying the Fenton Hill site. Thermal energies in the range of 3–10 MWt were produced demonstrating the technical feasibility of the concept. Many important lessons were learned regarding the creation, engineering and operation of such subsurface systems—these lessons will prove valuable as the geothermal community moves towards the goal of realizing the immense potential of this ubiquitous renewable energy resource. The purpose here is to provide a brief, easy to read overview of this pioneering project.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗