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At least 1,657 records · Page 92

GPS measurements of strain accumulation across the Imperial Valley, California: 1986-1989

The Global Positioning System (GPS) data collected in southern California from 1986 to 1989 indicate considerable strain accumulation across the Imperial Valley. Displacements are computed at 29 stations in and near the valley from 1986 to 1988, and at 11 sites from 1988 to 1989. The earlier measurements indicate 5.9 +/- 1.0 cm/yr right-lateral differential velocity across the valley, although the data are heavily influenced by the 1987 Superstition Hills earthquake sequence. Some measurements, especially the east-trending displacements, are suspects for large errors. The 1988 to 1989 GPS displacements are best modeled by 5.2 +/- 0.9 cm/yr of valley crossing deformation, but rates calculated from conventional geodetic measurements (3.4 to 4.3 cm/yr) fit the data nearly as well. There is evidence from GPS and Very Long Base Interferometry (VLBI) observations that the present slip rate along the southern San Andreas fault is smaller than the long-term geologic estimate, suggesting a lower earthquake potential than is currently assumed. Correspondingly, a higher earthquake potential is indicated for the San Jacinto fault. The Imperial Valley GPS sites form part of a 183 station network in southern California and northern Baja California, which spans a cross-section of the North American-Pacific plate boundary.

Larsen, Shawn↗

Global Positioning System measurements of strain accumulation across the Imperial Valley, California - 1986-1989

The Global Positioning System (GPS) data collected in southern California from 1986 to 1989 indicate considerable strain accumulation across the Imperial Valley. Displacements are computed at 29 stations in and near the valley from 1986 to 1988, and at 11 sites from 1988 to 1989. The earlier measurements indicate 5.9 =/- 1.0 cm/yr right-lateral differential velocity across the valley, although the data are heavily influenced by the 1987 Superstition Hills earthquake sequence. Some measurements, especially the east-trending displacements, are suspects for large errors. The 1988 to 1989 GPS displacements are best modeled by 5.2 =/- 0.9 cm/yr of valley crossing deformation, but rates calculated from conventional geodetic measurements (3.4 to 4.3 cm/yr) fit the data nearly as well. There is evidence from GPS and Very Long Base Interferometry (VLBI) observations that the present slip rate along the southern San Andreas fault is smaller than the long-term geologic estimate, suggesting a lower earthquake potential than is currently assumed. Correspondingly, a higher earthquake potential is indicated for the San Jacinto fault. The Imperial Valley GPS sites form part of a 183 station network in southern California and northern Baja California, which spans a cross-section of the North American-Pacific plate boundary.

Larsen, Shawn↗

A statistical approach for isolating fossil fuel emissions in atmospheric inverse problems

We study independent verification and quantification of fossil fuel (FF) emissions that constitutes a considerable scientific challenge. By coupling atmospheric observations of CO 2 with models of atmospheric transport, inverse models offer the possibility of overcoming this challenge. However, disaggregating the biospheric and FF flux components of terrestrial fluxes from CO 2 concentration measurements has proven to be difficult, due to observational and modeling limitations. In this study, we propose a statistical inverse modeling scheme for disaggregating winter time fluxes on the basis of their unique error covariances and covariates, where these covariances and covariates are representative of the underlying processes affecting FF and biospheric fluxes. The application of the method is demonstrated with one synthetic and two real data prototypical inversions by using in situ CO 2 measurements over North America. Also, inversions are performed only for the month of January, as predominance of biospheric CO 2 signal relative to FF CO 2 signal and observational limitations preclude disaggregation of the fluxes in other months. The quality of disaggregation is assessed primarily through examination of a posteriori covariance between disaggregated FF and biospheric fluxes at regional scales. Findings indicate that the proposed method is able to robustly disaggregate fluxes regionally at monthly temporal resolution with a posteriori cross covariance lower than 0.15 µmol m -2 s -1 between FF and biospheric fluxes. Error covariance models and covariates based on temporally varying FF inventory data provide a more robust disaggregation over static proxies (e.g., nightlight intensity and population density). However, the synthetic data case study shows that disaggregation is possible even in absence of detailed temporally varying FF inventory data.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Robust cooperative control strategy for a platoon of connected and autonomous vehicles against sensor errors and control errors simultaneously in a real-world driving environment

In a real-world driving environment, a platoon of connected and autonomous vehicles (CAVs) is subject to many internal and external disturbances, resulting in uncertain vehicle dynamics. In general, the disturbances can be categorized into two types: disturbances due to vehicle sensor errors (e.g., GPS error) and disturbances due to vehicle control errors (e.g., actuator delay). In the literature, many control strategies have been proposed to improve the robustness of the CAV platoon against uncertain vehicle dynamics induced by these disturbances. However, most of these strategies only consider one type of disturbance and cannot tackle both types of disturbances simultaneously. Furthermore, they are designed to maximize the benefits of each vehicle in the platoon independently, which can deteriorate the performance of the platoon. Here, to address these problems, this study proposes a robust cooperative control (RCC) strategy to maneuver the vehicles in the platoon cooperatively to counteract the impacts of both types of disturbances. The RCC strategy is developed based on a minimax problem, where the maximization subproblem seeks to find the worst inputs for the uncertainty terms in the vehicle dynamics equation to minimize the platoon performance, while the minimization subproblem seeks to find the optimal control decisions for all subsequent vehicles to maximize the platoon performance in the worst case. To solve the minimax problem, this study proposes a globally convergent solution algorithm. It can solve the minimax problem very efficiently to enable real time deployment of the RCC strategy. Numerical application indicates that compared to the existing methods, the RCC strategy can dramatically improve the robustness of the CAV platoon against the uncertain vehicle dynamics induced by both vehicle state detection errors and vehicle control errors. Therefore, it can maneuver the CAV platoon safely and efficiently in a real-world driving environment.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

Investigating the mechanisms responsible for the lack of surface energy balance closure in a central Amazonian tropical rainforest

This work investigates the diurnal and seasonal behavior of the energy balance residual (E) that results from the observed difference between available energy and the turbulent fluxes of sensible heat (H) and latent heat (LE) at the FLUXNET BR-Ma2 site located in the Brazilian central Amazon rainforest. The behavior of E is analyzed by extending the eddy covariance averaging length from 30 min to 4 h and by applying an Information Flow Dynamical Process Network to diagnose processes and conditions affecting E across different seasons. Results show that the seasonal turbulent flux dynamics and the Bowen ratio are primarily driven by net radiation (R n ), with substantial sub-seasonal variability. The Bowen ratio increased from 0.25 in April to 0.4 at the end of September. Extension of the averaging length from 0.5 (94.6% closure) to 4 h and thus inclusion of longer timescale eddies and mesoscale processes closes the energy balance and lead to an increase in the Bowen ratio, thus highlighting the importance of additional H to E. Information flow analysis reveals that the components of the energy balance explain between 25 and 40% of the total Shannon entropy with higher values during the wet season than the dry season. Dry season information flow from the buoyancy flux to E are 30–50% larger than that from H, indicating the potential importance of buoyancy fluxes to closing E. While the low closure highlights additional sources not captured in the flux data and random measurement errors contributing to E, the findings of the information flow and averaging length analysis are consistent with the impact of mesoscale circulations, which tend to transport more H than LE, on the lack of closure.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Atomic Layer Thermopiles: Comprehensive static calibration, comparison and application in subsonic and supersonic flows

Here, this paper compares the calibration of different heat flux sensors in radiation- and convection-based sub- and supersonic operation. First, four heat flux sensors based on different principles: ALTP (Transverse Seebeck Effect), HFM-8E (differential-layer device), coaxial Thermocouple and a TG-2000 (circular-foil gage) are calibrated in a laser-based radiation setup. In a second step, all heat flux sensors are compared with a slug-calorimeter within a subsonic convection-dominated facility based on stagnation-point measurements of an impinging hot air jet. The obtained results indicate that a sensitivity transfer between a radiative calibrated sensor used in a mainly convective environment is not always possible and can lead to significant, systematic errors. Calibration in a subsonic shear flow with thermocouple readings demonstrate small divergence from the manufacturer provided sensitivity. Finally, supersonic testing with high frequency shock-boundary layer interactions highlight the need for ALTP rather than the conventional use of thermocouple arrays to resolve the high frequency phenomena associated with shock boundary layer interactions.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Comparison of continuum and cross-core theories of dynamic strain aging

Dynamic strain aging (DSA) is the process of solute atoms segregating around dislocations on the timescale of loading. Continuum theories of DSA derived from elasticity theory have been shown to severely overpredict both the timescale and strengthening of DSA. Recently, cross-core theory was developed to reconcile this gap, invoking a special single-atomic-hop diffusion mechanism across the core of an extended dislocation. In this work, we show that the classical continuum theory expression for the rate of solute segregation is in error. After correcting this error, we show that continuum theory predictions match cross-core theory when the elevated diffusivity near the dislocation core is accounted for. Finally, our findings indicate that continuum theory is still a useful tool for studying dislocation-solute interactions.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Cross-scale covariance for material property prediction

A simulation can stand its ground against an experiment only if its prediction uncertainty is known. The unknown accuracy of interatomic potentials (IPs) is a major source of prediction uncertainty, severely limiting the use of large-scale classical atomistic simulations in a wide range of scientific and engineering applications. Here we explore covariance between predictions of metal plasticity, from 178 large-scale (~10 8 atoms) molecular dynamics (MD) simulations, and a variety of indicator properties computed at small-scales (≤10 2 atoms). All simulations use the same 178 IPs. In a manner similar to statistical studies in public health, we analyze correlations of strength with indicators, identify the best predictor properties, and build a cross-scale “strength-on-predictors” regression model. This model is then used to estimate regression error over the statistical pool of IPs. Small-scale predictors found to be highly covariant with strength are computed using expensive quantum-accurate calculations and used to predict flow strength, within the statistical error bounds established in our study.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Magnetic dilution effect and topological phase transitions in (Mn 1- x Pb x )Bi 2 Te 4

We report, as the first intrinsic antiferromagnetic topological insulator, MnBi 2 Te 4 has provided a material platform to realize various emergent phenomena arising from the interplay of magnetism and band topology. Here, by investigating (Mn 1-x Pb x )Bi 2 Te 4 (0 ≤ x ≤ 0.82) single crystals via the x-ray, electrical transport, magnetometry and neutron measurements, chemical analysis, external pressure, and first-principles calculations, we reveal the magnetic dilution effect on the magnetism and band topology in MnBi 2 Te 4 . With increasing x, both lattice parameters a and c expand linearly by around 2%. All samples undergo the paramagnetic to A-type antiferromagnetic transition with the Néel temperature decreasing lineally from 24 K at x = 0 to 2 K at x = 0.82. Our neutron data refinement of the x = 0.37 sample indicates that the ordered moment is 4.3(1)μ B /Mn at 4.85 K and the amount of the Mn Bi antisites is negligible within the error bars. Isothermal magnetization data reveal a slight decrease of the interlayer plane-plane antiferromagnetic exchange interaction and a monotonic decrease of the magnetic anisotropy due to diluting magnetic ions and enlarging the unit cell. For x = 0.37, the application of external pressures enhances the interlayer antiferromagnetic coupling, boosting the Néel temperature at a rate of 1.4 K/GPa and the saturation field at a rate of 1.8 T/GPa. Furthermore, our first-principles calculations reveal that the band inversion in the two end materials, MnBi 2 Te 4 and PbBi 2 Te 4 , occurs at the Γ and Z point, respectively, while two gapless points appear at x = 0.44 and x = 0.66, suggesting possible topological phase transitions with doping.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

TH-CD-206-07: Determination of Patient-Specific Myocardial Mass at Risk Using Computed Tomography Angiography

Purpose: To evaluate the accuracy of a patient-specific coronary perfusion territory assignment algorithm that uses CT angiography (CTA) and a minimum-cost-path approach to assign coronary perfusion territories on a voxel-by-voxel basis for determination of myocardial mass at risk. Methods: Intravenous (IV) contrast (370 mg/mL iodine, 25 mL, 7 mL/s) was injected centrally into five swine (35–45 kg) and CTA was performed using a 320-slice CT scanner at 100 kVp and 200 mA. Additionally, a 4F catheter was advanced into the left anterior descending (LAD), left circumflex (LCX), and right coronary artery (RCA) and contrast (30 mg/mL iodine, 10 mL, 1.5 mL/s) was directly injected into each coronary artery for isolation of reference coronary perfusion territories. Semiautomatic myocardial segmentation of the CTA data was then performed and the centerlines of the LAD, LCX, and RCA were digitally extracted through image processing. Individual coronary perfusion territories were then assigned using a minimum-cost-path approach, and were quantitatively compared to the reference coronary perfusion territories. Results: The results of the coronary perfusion territory assignment algorithm were in good agreement with the reference coronary perfusion territories. The average volumetric assignment error from mitral orifice to apex was 5.5 ± 1.1%, corresponding to 2.1 ± 0.7 grams of myocardial mass misassigned for each coronary perfusion territory. Conclusion: The results indicate that accurate coronary perfusion territory assignment is possible on a voxel-by-voxel basis using CTA data and an assignment algorithm based on a minimum-cost-path approach. Thus, the technique can potentially be used to accurately determine patient-specific myocardial mass at risk distal to a coronary stenosis, improving coronary lesion assessment and treatment. Conflict of Interest (only if applicable): Grant funding from Toshiba America Medical Systems.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

EGS Collab Experiment 1: 3D Seismic Velocity Model and Updated Microseismic Catalog Using Transfer-Learning Aided Double-Difference Tomography

This package contains a 3D Seismic velocity model and an updated microseismic catalog associated with a proceedings paper (Chai et al., 2020) published in the 45th Workshop on Geothermal Reservoir Engineering. The 3D_seismic_velocity_model text file contains x (m), y(m), z(m), P-wave velocity (km/s), P-wave velocity quality indicator (1 for well-constrained; 0 for poorly constrained), S-wave velocity (km/s), and S-wave velocity quality indicator (1 for well-constrained; 0 for poorly constrained). The Updated_MEQ_catalog text file contains event origin time, x(m), y(m), z(m), error in x (m), error in y (m), error in z (m), and RMS misfit (millisecond). The 3D_seismic_P-wave_velocity_model animation file shows slices of the 3D P-wave velocity model. The 3D_seismic_S-wave_velocity_model animation file shows slices of the 3D S-wave velocity model. The Interactive_MEQ_locations API file is an interactive visualization of the updated microseismic event locations. The visualization allows users to view the event locations by dragging, rotating, and zooming in. References: Chai, C., Maceira, M., Santos-Villalobos, H. J., Venkatakrishnan, S. V., Schoenball, M., and EGS Collab Team, 2020, Automatic Seismic Phase Picking Using Deep Learning for the EGS Collab Project, in PROCEEDINGS, 45th Workshop on Geothermal Reservoir Engineering, edited, Stanford University, Stanford, California, 45, 1266-1276.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

Fast Dynamic Aperture Optimization with Reversal Integration

A fast method for dynamic aperture (DA) optimization of storage rings has been developed through the use of reversal integration. Even if dynamical systems have an exact reversal symme- try, a numerical forward integration di ers from its reversal. For chaotic trajectories, cumulative round-o errors are scaled, which results in an exponential growth in the di erence. The exponential e ect, intrinsically associated with the Lyapunov exponent, is a generic indicator of chaos because it represents the sensitivity of chaotic motion to an initial condition. A chaos indicator of the charged particle motion is then obtained by comparing the forward integrations of particle trajectories with corresponding reversals, a.k.a. \backward integrations." The indicator was con rmed to be ob- servable through short-term particle tracking simulations. Therefore, adopting it as an objective function could speed up optimization. The DA of the National Synchrotron Light Source II storage ring, and another test di raction-limited light source ring, were optimized using this method for the purpose of demonstration.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

The Cognitive Effects of Machine Learning Aid in Domain-Specific and Domain-General Tasks.

With machine learning (ML) technologies rapidly expanding to new applications and domains, users are collaborating with artificial intelligence-assisted diagnostic tools to a larger and larger extent. But what impact does ML aid have on cognitive performance, especially when the ML output is not always accurate? Here, we examined the cognitive effects of the presence of simulated ML assistance—including both accurate and inaccurate output—on two tasks (a domain-specific nuclear safeguards task and domain-general visual search task). Patterns of performance varied across the two tasks for both the presence of ML aid as well as the category of ML feedback (e.g., false alarm). These results indicate that differences such as domain could influence users’ performance with ML aid, and suggest the need to test the effects of ML output (and associated errors) in the specific context of use, especially when the stimuli of interest are vague or ill-defined

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Reconnaissance with JWST of the J-region Asymptotic Giant Branch in Distance Ladder Galaxies: From Irregular Luminosity Functions to Approximation of the Hubble Constant

Abstract We study stars in the J-regions of the asymptotic giant branch (JAGB) of near-infrared color–magnitude diagrams in the maser host NGC 4258 and four hosts of six Type Ia supernovae (SNe Ia): NGC 1448, NGC 1559, NGC 5584, and NGC 5643. These clumps of stars are readily apparent near 1.0 < F150W − F277W < 1.5 andm F150W = 22–25 mag with James Webb Space Telescope NIRCam photometry. Various methods have been proposed to assign an apparent reference magnitude to this recently proposed standard candle, including the mode, median, sigma-clipped mean, or a modeled luminosity function parameter. We test the consistency of these by measuring intrahost variations, finding differences of up to ∼0.2 mag that significantly exceed statistical uncertainties. Brightness differences appear intrinsic, and are further amplified by the nonuniform shape of the JAGB luminosity function, also apparent in the LMC and SMC. We follow a “many methods” approach to measure consistently JAGB magnitudes and distance moduli to the SN Ia host sample calibrated by NGC 4258. We find broad agreement with distance moduli measured from Cepheids, tip of the red giant branch, and Miras. However, the SN host mean distance modulus estimated via the JAGB method necessary to estimateH 0 differs by ∼0.19 mag among the above definitions, the result of different levels of luminosity function asymmetry. The methods yield a full range of 71−78 km s −1 Mpc −1 , i.e., a fiducial result ofH 0 = 74.7 ± 2.1(stat) ± 2.3(sys, ±3.1 if combined in quadrature) km s −1 Mpc −1 , with systematic errors limited by the differences in methods. Future work may seek to standardize and refine this promising tool further, making it more competitive with established distance indicators.

Astronomy & Astrophysics↗

Quantifying the structural uncertainty of the aerosol mixing state representation in a modal model

Abstract. Aerosol mixing state is an important emergent property that affects aerosol radiative forcing and aerosol–cloud interactions, but it has not been easy to constrain this property globally. This study aims to verify the global distribution of aerosol mixing state represented by modal models. To quantify the aerosol mixing state, we used the aerosol mixing state indices for submicron aerosol based on the mixing of optically absorbing and non-absorbing species (χo), the mixing of primary carbonaceous and non-primary carbonaceous species (χc), and the mixing of hygroscopic and non-hygroscopic species (χh). To achieve a spatiotemporal comparison, we calculated the mixing state indices using output from the Community Earth System Model with the four-mode version of the Modal Aerosol Module (MAM4) and compared the results with the mixing state indices from a benchmark machine-learned model trained on high-detail particle-resolved simulations from the particle-resolved stochastic aerosol model PartMC-MOSAIC. The two methods yielded very different spatial patterns of the mixing state indices. In some regions, the yearly averaged χ value computed by the MAM4 model differed by up to 70 percentage points from the benchmark values. These errors tended to be zonally structured, with the MAM4 model predicting a more internally mixed aerosol at low latitudes and a more externally mixed aerosol at high latitudes compared to the benchmark. Our study quantifies potential model bias in simulating mixing state in different regions and provides insights into potential improvements to model process representation for a more realistic simulation of aerosols towards better quantification of radiative forcing and aerosol–cloud interactions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Spirometric traits show quantile-dependent heritability, which may contribute to their gene-environment interactions with smoking and pollution

Background: “Quantile-dependent expressivity” refers to a genetic effect that is dependent upon whether the phenotype (e.g., spirometric data) is high or low relative to its population distribution. Forced vital capacity (FVC), forced expiratory volume in 1 second (FEV 1 ), and the FEV 1 /FVC ratio are moderately heritable spirometric traits. The aim of the analyses is to test whether their heritability (h 2 ) is constant over all quantiles of their distribution. Methods: Quantile regression was applied to the mean age, sex, height and smoking-adjusted spirometric data over multiple visits in 9,993 offspring-parent pairs and 1,930 sibships from the Framingham Heart Study to obtain robust estimates of offspring-parent (β OP ), offspring-midparent (β OM ), and full-sib regression slopes (β FS ). Nonparametric significance levels were obtained from 1,000 bootstrap samples. β OP s were used as simple indicators of quantile-specific heritability (i.e.,h 2 = 2β OP /(1+r spouse ), where r spouse was the correlation between spouses). Results: β OP ± standard error (SE) decreased by 0.0009 ± 0.0003 (P = 0.003) with every one-percent increment in the population distribution of FEV 1 /FVC, i.e., β OP ± SE were: 0.182 ± 0.031, 0.152 ± 0.015; 0.136 ± 0.011; 0.121 ± 0.013; and 0.099 ± 0.013 at the 10th, 25th, 50th, 75th, and 90th percentiles of the FEV 1 /FVC distribution, respectively. These correspond to h 2 ± SEs of 0.350 ± 0.060 at the 10th, 0.292 ± 0.029 at the 25th, 0.262 ± 0.020 at the 50th, 0.234 ± 0.025 at the 75th, and 0.191 ± 0.025 at the 90th percentiles of the FEV 1 /FVC ratio. Maximum mid-expiratory flow (MMEF) h 2 ± SEs increased 0.0025 ± 0.0007 (P = 0.0004) with every one-percent increment in its distribution, i.e.: 0.467 ± 0.046, 0.467 ± 0.033, 0.554 ± 0.038, 0.615 ± 0.042, and 0.675 ± 0.060 at the 10th, 25th, 50th, 75th, and 90th percentiles of its distribution. This was due to forced expiratory flow at 75% of FVC (FEF75%), whose quantile-specific h 2 increased an average of 0.0042 ± 0.0008 for every one-percent increment in its distribution. It is speculated that previously reported gene-environment interactions may be partially attributable to quantile-specific h 2 , i.e., greater heritability in individuals with lower FEV 1 /FVC due to smoking or airborne particles exposure vs. nonsmoking, unexposed individuals. Conclusion: Heritabilities of FEV 1 /FVC, MMEF, and FEF75% from quantile-regression of offspring-parent and sibling spirometric data suggest their quantile-dependent expressivity.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Adaptive filtering with correlated state noise

An adaptive filter which uses a minimum variance criteria to estimate state noise covariance is presented. It is not necessary to assume white state noise in order to implement the filter. Simulation results are given which demonstrate that the filter tracks a satellite in the presence of modeling errors better than a conventional minimum variance filter with state noise. It is also shown that the propagated convariance matrix of the filter is an accurate indicator of the filter's performance.

Argentiero, P.↗

Digital servo controller

A system, for generating a signal to control the rotation of a shaft supporting an antenna so that the antenna is rotated the shortest angular distance from a present angular position to a new desired angular position, was described. The system comprises a shaft encoder which generates a digital encoder signal indicating the present position of the shaft. A command signal is compared with the encoder signal to produce an analog signal for rotating the antenna. An error signal is produced for controlling the direction of rotation of the antenna.

Byrne, F.↗