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NASA NTRS2002

Wavelet Approximation in Data Assimilation

Estimation of the state of the atmosphere with the Kalman filter remains a distant goal because of high computational cost of evolving the error covariance for both linear and nonlinear systems. Wavelet approximation is presented here as a possible solution that efficiently compresses both global and local covariance information. We demonstrate the compression characteristics on the the error correlation field from a global two-dimensional chemical constituent assimilation, and implement an adaptive wavelet approximation scheme on the assimilation of the one-dimensional Burger's equation. In the former problem, we show that 99%, of the error correlation can be represented by just 3% of the wavelet coefficients, with good representation of localized features. In the Burger's equation assimilation, the discrete linearized equations (tangent linear model) and analysis covariance are projected onto a wavelet basis and truncated to just 6%, of the coefficients. A nearly optimal forecast is achieved and we show that errors due to truncation of the dynamics are no greater than the errors due to covariance truncation.

Tangborn, Andrew↗
NASA NTRS2024

The Simons Observatory: Beam Characterization for the Small Aperture Telescopes

We use time-domain simulations of Jupiter observations to test and develop a beam reconstruction pipeline for the Simons Observatory Small Aperture Telescopes. The method relies on a mapmaker that estimates and subtracts correlated atmospheric noise and a beam fitting code designed to compensate for the bias caused by the mapmaker. We test our reconstruction performance for four different frequency bands against various algorithmic parameters, atmospheric conditions, and input beams. We additionally show the reconstruction quality as a function of the number of available observations and investigate how different calibration strategies affect the beam uncertainty. For all of the cases considered, we find good agreement between the fitted results and the input beam model within an ∼1.5% error for a multipole range ℓ = 30–700 and an ∼0.5% error for a multipole range ℓ = 50–200. We conclude by using a harmonic-domain component separation algorithm to verify that the beam reconstruction errors and biases observed in our analysis do not significantly bias the Simons Observatory r-measurement.

Cosmic microwave background radiation↗
NASA NTRS1993

Asteroid approach covariance analysis for the Clementine mission

The Clementine mission is designed to test Strategic Defense Initiative Organization (SDIO) technology, the Brilliant Pebbles and Brilliant Eyes sensors, by mapping the moon surface and flying by the asteroid Geographos. The capability of two of the instruments available on board the spacecraft, the lidar (laser radar) and the UV/Visible camera is used in the covariance analysis to obtain the spacecraft delivery uncertainties at the asteroid. These uncertainties are due primarily to asteroid ephemeris uncertainties. On board optical navigation reduces the uncertainty in the knowledge of the spacecraft position in the direction perpendicular to the incoming asymptote to a one-sigma value of under 1 km, at the closest approach distance of 100 km. The uncertainty in the knowledge of the encounter time is about 0.1 seconds for a flyby velocity of 10.85 km/s. The magnitude of these uncertainties is due largely to Center Finding Errors (CFE). These systematic errors represent the accuracy expected in locating the center of the asteroid in the optical navigation images, in the absence of a topographic model for the asteroid. The direction of the incoming asymptote cannot be estimated accurately until minutes before the asteroid flyby, and correcting for it would require autonomous navigation. Orbit determination errors dominate over maneuver execution errors, and the final delivery accuracy attained is basically the orbit determination uncertainty before the final maneuver.

Ionasescu, Rodica↗
NASA NTRS1996

The 27-28 October 1986 FIRE IFO Cirrus Case Study: Cloud Optical Properties Determined by High Spectral Resolution Lidar

During the First ISCCP Region Experiment (FIRE) cirrus intensive field observation (IFO) the High Spectral Resolution Lidar was operated from a roof top site on the University of Wisconsin-Madison campus. Because the HSRL technique separately measures the molecular and cloud particle backscatter components of the lidar return, the optical thickness is determined independent of particle backscatter. This is accomplished by comparing the known molecular density distribution to the observed decrease in molecular backscatter signal with altitude. The particle to molecular backscatter ratio yields calibrated measurements of backscatter cross sections that can be plotted ro reveal cloud morphology without distortion due to attenuation. Changes in cloud particle size, shape, and phase affect the backscatter to extinction ratio (backscatter-phase function). The HSRL independently measures cloud particle backscatter phase function. This paper presents a quantitative analysis of the HSRL cirrus cloud data acquired over an approximate 33 hour period of continuous near zenith observations. Correlations between small scale wind structure and cirrus cloud morphology have been observed. These correlations can bias the range averaging inherent in wind profiling lidars of modest vertical resolution, leading to increased measurement errors at cirrus altitudes. Extended periods of low intensity backscatter were noted between more strongly organized cirrus cloud activity. Optical thicknesses ranging from 0.01-1.4, backscatter phase functions between 0.02-0.065 sr (exp -1) and backscatter cross sections spanning 4 orders of magnitude were observed. the altitude relationship between cloud top and bottom boundaries and the cloud optical center altitude was dependent on the type of formation observed Cirrus features were observed with characteristic wind drift estimated horizontal sizes of 5-400 km. The clouds frequently exhibited cellular structure with vertical to horizontal dimension ratios of 1:5-1:1.

Grund, C. J.↗
NASA NTRS2016

Extending "Deep Blue" Aerosol Retrieval Coverage to Cases of Absorbing Aerosols Above Clouds: Sensitivity Analysis and First Case Studies

Cases of absorbing aerosols above clouds (AACs), such as smoke or mineral dust, are omitted from most routinely processed space-based aerosol optical depth (AOD) data products, including those from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS). This study presents a sensitivity analysis and preliminary algorithm to retrieve above-cloud AOD and liquid cloud optical depth (COD) for AAC cases from MODIS or similar sensors, for incorporation into a future version of the "Deep Blue" AOD data product. Detailed retrieval simulations suggest that these sensors should be able to determine AAC AOD with a typical level of uncertainty approximately 25-50 percent (with lower uncertainties for more strongly absorbing aerosol types) and COD with an uncertainty approximately10-20 percent, if an appropriate aerosol optical model is known beforehand. Errors are larger, particularly if the aerosols are only weakly absorbing, if the aerosol optical properties are not known, and the appropriate model to use must also be retrieved. Actual retrieval errors are also compared to uncertainty envelopes obtained through the optimal estimation (OE) technique; OE-based uncertainties are found to be generally reasonable for COD but larger than actual retrieval errors for AOD, due in part to difficulties in quantifying the degree of spectral correlation of forward model error. The algorithm is also applied to two MODIS scenes (one smoke and one dust) for which near-coincident NASA Ames Airborne Tracking Sun photometer (AATS) data were available to use as a ground truth AOD data source, and found to be in good agreement, demonstrating the validity of the technique with real observations.

aerosols above clouds↗
NASA NTRS2018

The OpenSE Cookbook: A Practical, Recipe Based Collection of Patterns, Procedures, and Best Practices for Executable Systems Engineering for the Thirty Meter Telescope

The OpenSE Cookbook is an open-sourced collection of patterns, procedures, and best practices targeted for systems engineers who seek guidance on applying model-based and executable systems engineering (MBSE) using SysML. Its content has emerged from the system level modeling effort on the European Framework Program 6 (FP6) and the Thirty Meter Telescope (TMT). The TMT MBSE approach applied the Executable Systems Engineering Method (ESEM) and the open-source Engineering Environment (OpenMBEE) to specify, analyze, and verify requirements of TMT’s Alignment and Phasing System (APS) and the Narrow Field Infrared Adaptive Optics System (NFIRAOS). In these applications, implicit dependencies are made explicit in a formal model through the use of ESEM, OpenMBEE, and SysML modeling constructs. The value proposition for applying this MBSE approach was to establish precise requirements and fine-grained traceability to system designs, and to verify key requirements beginning early in development. The integration of ESEM and the OpenMBEE tooling infrastructure (providing linked-data and web-operability) is a significant added value for the MBSE approach. The APS is responsible for the overall pre-adaptive optics wavefront quality, using starlight to measure wavefront errors and align the TMT optics. In the formally integrated and executable SysML model, simulations are performed to analyze the impact of changed requirements and verify specified constraints for various operational scenarios. The APS team used several modeling patterns to capture information such as the requirements, the operational scenarios, involved subsystems and their interaction points, the estimated or required time durations, and the mass and power consumption. Adaptive optics systems are designed to sense real-time atmospheric turbulence and correct the telescope’s optical beam to remove its effect. The system model for the adaptive optics operational modes was developed to capture sequence behaviors and operational scenarios to run Monte-Carlo simulations for verifying acquisition time, observing efficiency, and operational behavior requirements. The model is particularly useful for investigating the effect of parallelization, identifying interface issues, and re-ordering sequence acquisition tasks. A former version of the Cookbook (which is now updated to MBSE challenges, goals, and lessons learned) included modeling guidelines and conventions for all system aspects, hierarchy levels, and views, which were developed during for the Active Phasing Experiment (APE), an opto-mechatronical system technology demonstrator for the Extremely Large Telescope (ELT). The Cookbook utilizes the above mentioned system models as real-world case-studies to demonstrate and document the applications of the recipes, providing also instructional examples and addressing the available tooling support. The Cookbook is accompanied by a number of SysML models and aodel libraries which facilitate model authoring and maintenance. The Cookbook covers the different aspects of Systems Engineering such as management of Requirements, Design (behavior and structure), Interfaces, Interdisciplinary Integration, Analysis, Trade Studies, and Technical Resources. This paper presents the background, motivation, architecture, and highlights some key content of the Cookbook. For example, interface management, error budget management, requirements verification, Monte Carlo driven analysis, and timing analysis of operational scenarios. The paper discusses how the capabilities of OpenMBEE contributed significantly to the adoption of executable systems engineering.

Brower, Eric↗
DOE OSTI2025

Assessment of Extinction‐, Satellite‐, and Model‐Based Vertical Cloud Condensation Nuclei (CCN) Retrieval Methods Using Airborne CCN Measurements Over the Southern Great Plains

Abstract Accurate estimates of the vertical profile of cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) concentration are crucial to better quantify aerosol‐cloud interactions. We assessed the correlation between the vertical CCN concentrations obtained from extinction‐, satellite‐, and model‐based retrieval methods and airborne CCN concentrations collected at 0.24% supersaturation within the 3, 9, 27, and 81 km regions centered over the U.S. Department of Energy's Atmospheric Radiation Measurement User Facility Southern Great Plains (SGP) site during the spring and summer of 2016. The extinction profiles at a wavelength 355 nm were provided by the ground‐based Raman lidar. Our analysis showed moderate correlation between dry‐corrected extinction and airborne CCN data. We found the retrieved number concentration of CCN (RNCCN) method showed regression best‐fit slopes close to unity and consistent prediction errors for the majority of the data. The Lenhardt et al. (2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt‐16‐2037‐2023 ) method showed similar conclusions but only during spring, whereas the Mamouri and Ansmann (2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp‐16‐5905‐2016 ) method showed poor correlation. The Shinozuka et al. (2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp‐15‐7585‐2015 ) satellite‐based method exhibited reasonable agreement during summer but poor correlation during periods where both high (∼1,400 #/cm 3 ) and low (∼50 #/cm 3 ) airborne CCN concentrations were observed. The Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service reanalysis modeled 3‐D CCN data set showed a moderate to weak positive correlation but performed poorly at high airborne CCN concentrations. Our analysis suggests the extinction‐based RNCCN method performed better than other methods across most observation periods under the diverse meteorological conditions observed at the SGP site.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Planck 2018 results. VI. Cosmological parameters

In this paper, we present cosmological parameter results from the final full-mission Planck measurements of the cosmic microwave background (CMB) anisotropies, combining information from the temperature and polarization maps and the lensing reconstruction. Compared to the 2015 results, improved measurements of large-scale polarization allow the reionization optical depth to be measured with higher precision, leading to significant gains in the precision of other correlated parameters. Improved modelling of the small-scale polarization leads to more robust constraints on many parameters, with residual modelling uncertainties estimated to affect them only at the 0.5 σ level. We find good consistency with the standard spatially-flat 6-parameter ΛCDM cosmology having a power-law spectrum of adiabatic scalar perturbations (denoted “base ΛCDM” in this paper), from polarization, temperature, and lensing, separately and in combination. A combined analysis gives dark matter density Ω c h 2 = 0.120 ± 0.001, baryon density Ω b h 2 = 0.0224 ± 0.0001, scalar spectral index n s = 0.965 ± 0.004, and optical depth τ = 0.054 ± 0.007 (in this abstract we quote 68% confidence regions on measured parameters and 95% on upper limits). The angular acoustic scale is measured to 0.03% precision, with 100 θ * = 1.0411 ± 0.0003. These results are only weakly dependent on the cosmological model and remain stable, with somewhat increased errors, in many commonly considered extensions. Assuming the base-ΛCDM cosmology, the inferred (model-dependent) late-Universe parameters are: Hubble constant H 0 = (67.4 ± 0.5) km s –1 Mpc –1 ; matter density parameter Ω m = 0.315 ± 0.007; and matter fluctuation amplitude σ 8 = 0.811 ± 0.006. We find no compelling evidence for extensions to the base-ΛCDM model. Combining with baryon acoustic oscillation (BAO) measurements (and considering single-parameter extensions) we constrain the effective extra relativistic degrees of freedom to be N eff = 2.99 ± 0.17, in agreement with the Standard Model prediction N eff = 3.046, and find that the neutrino mass is tightly constrained to Σ m ν < 0.12 eV. The CMB spectra continue to prefer higher lensing amplitudes than predicted in base ΛCDM at over 2 σ , which pulls some parameters that affect the lensing amplitude away from the ΛCDM model; however, this is not supported by the lensing reconstruction or (in models that also change the background geometry) BAO data. The joint constraint with BAO measurements on spatial curvature is consistent with a flat universe, Ω K = 0.001 ± 0.002. Also combining with Type Ia supernovae (SNe), the dark-energy equation of state parameter is measured to be w 0 = –1.03 ± 0.03, consistent with a cosmological constant. We find no evidence for deviations from a purely power-law primordial spectrum, and combining with data from BAO, BICEP2, and Keck Array data, we place a limit on the tensor-to-scalar ratio r 0.002 < 0.06. Standard big-bang nucleosynthesis predictions for the helium and deuterium abundances for the base-ΛCDM cosmology are in excellent agreement with observations. The Planck base-ΛCDM results are in good agreement with BAO, SNe, and some galaxy lensing observations, but in slight tension with the Dark Energy Survey’s combined-probe results including galaxy clustering (which prefers lower fluctuation amplitudes or matter density parameters), and in significant, 3.6 σ , tension with local measurements of the Hubble constant (which prefer a higher value). Simple model extensions that can partially resolve these tensions are not favoured by the Planck data.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
NASA NTRS1986

Radiometric analysis of the longwave infrared channel of the Thematic Mapper on LANDSAT 4 and 5

The first objective was to evaluate the postlaunch radiometric calibration of the LANDSAT Thematic Mapper (TM) band 6 data. The second objective was to determine to what extent surface temperatures could be computed from the TM and 6 data using atmospheric propagation models. To accomplish this, ground truth data were compared to a single TM-4 band 6 data set. This comparison indicated satisfactory agreement over a narrow temperature range. The atmospheric propagation model (modified LOWTRAN 5A) was used to predict surface temperature values based on the radiance at the spacecraft. The aircraft data were calibrated using a multi-altitude profile calibration technique which had been extensively tested in previous studies. This aircraft calibration permitted measurement of surface temperatures based on the radiance reaching the aircraft. When these temperature values are evaluated, an error in the satellite's ability to predict surface temperatures can be estimated. This study indicated that by carefully accounting for various sensor calibration and atmospheric propagation effects, and expected error (1 standard deviation) in surface temperature would be 0.9 K. This assumes no error in surface emissivity and no sampling error due to target location. These results indicate that the satellite calibration is within nominal limits to within this study's ability to measure error.

Schott, John R.↗
NASA NTRS1988

Observations of comets and asteroids

All available ground-based observational techniques are used to study the chemical and physical properties of the small bodies of the solar system, primarily comets and secondarily asteroids. The ultimate goal is to use these bodies to understand the formation and evolution of the solar system. The analysis of charge coupled device (CCD) images of comet P/Halley continued. This included a mojor revision of a paper on the periodicities of CN jets in Halley showing that their periodicity is 7.3 days, not 2.2 days. It also included an analysis of the continuum images which showed that the dust in jets is much redder than in the ambient coma. Calculations with Mie theory suggest that the particles that show the strongest effects of radiation pressure. Much effort was expended devising methods to estimate the level of sky background of the many images in which comet extends to the edge of the chip. Examined images of comet Wilson were taken over many months in 1987. Wilson, a dynamically new comet, shows none of the short-term variability or jet structure (either dusty jets or jets of radicals seen in Halley. This is presumably due to the lack of a mantle or the nucleus. Median-imaging of sky was as a technique for removing residual flat-fielding errors in CCD images. A Monte Carlo model and a convolution model were developed for studying temporal variability of gaseous daughter products.

Ahearn, Michael F.↗
NASA NTRS1999

Constructing Synoptic Maps of Stratospheric Column Ozone from HALOE, SAGE and Balloonsonde Data Using Potential Vorticity Isentropic Coordinate Transformations

In this study we utilize potential vorticity - isentropic (PVI) coordinate transformations as a means of combining ozone data from different sources to construct daily, synthetic three-dimensional ozone fields. This methodology has been used successfully to reconstruct ozone maps in particular regions from aircraft data over the period of the aircraft campaign. We expand this method to create high-resolution daily global maps of profile ozone data, particularly in the lower stratosphere, where high-resolution ozone data are sparse. Ozone climatologies in PVI-space are constructed from satellite-based SAGE II and UARS/HALOE data, both of which-use solar occultation techniques to make high vertical resolution ozone profile measurements, but with low spatial resolution. A climatology from ground-based balloonsonde data is also created. The climatologies are used to establish the relationship between ozone and dynamical variability, which is defined by the potential vorticity (in the form of equivalent latitude) and potential temperature fields. Once a PVI climatology has been created from data taken by one or more instruments, high-resolution daily profile ozone field estimates are constructed based solely on the PVI fields, which are available on a daily basis from NCEP analysis. These profile ozone maps could be used for a variety of applications, including use in conjunction with total ozone maps to create a daily tropospheric ozone product, as input to forecast models, or as a tool for validating independent ozone measurements when correlative data are not available. This technique is limited to regions where the ozone is a long-term tracer and the flow is adiabatic. We evaluate the internal consistency of the technique by transforming the ozone back to physical space and comparing to the original profiles. Biases in the long-term average of the differences are used to identify regions where the technique is consistently introducing errors. Initial results show the technique is useful in the lower stratosphere at most latitudes throughout the year,and in the winter hemisphere in the middle stratosphere. The results are problematic in the summer hemisphere middle stratosphere due to increased ozone photochemistry and weak PV gradients. Alternate techniques in these regions will be discussed. An additional limitation is the quality and resolution of the meteorological data.

Hollandsworth, Stacey M.↗
NASA NTRS2000

Estimates of Ground Temperature and Atmospheric Moisture from CERES Observations

A method is developed to retrieve surface ground temperature (Tg) and atmospheric moisture using clear sky fluxes (CSF) from CERES-TRMM observations. In general, the clear sky outgoing long-wave radiation (CLR) is sensitive to upper level moisture (q(sub h)) over wet regions and Tg over dry regions The clear sky window flux from 800 to 1200 /cm (RadWn) is sensitive to low level moisture (q(sub j)) and Tg. Combining these two measurements (CLR and RadWn), Tg and q(sub h) can be estimated over land, while q(sub h) and q(sub t) can be estimated over the oceans. The approach capitalizes on the availability of satellite estimates of CLR and RadWn and other auxiliary satellite data. The basic methodology employs off-line forward radiative transfer calculations to generate synthetic CSF data from two different global 4-dimensional data assimilation products. Simple linear regression is used to relate discrepancies in CSF to discrepancies in Tg, q(sub h) and q(sub t). The slopes of the regression lines define sensitivity parameters that can be exploited to help interpret mismatches between satellite observations and model-based estimates of CSF. For illustration, we analyze the discrepancies in the CSF between an early implementation of the Goddard Earth Observing System Data Assimilation System (GEOS-DAS) and a recent operational version of the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Prediction data assimilation system. In particular, our analysis of synthetic total and window region SCF differences (computed from two different assimilated data sets) shows that simple linear regression employing (Delta)Tg and broad layer (Delta)q(sub l) from 500 hPa to surface and (Delta)q(sub h) from 200 to 500 hPa provides a good approximation to the full radiative transfer calculations, typically explaining more than 90% of the 6-hourly variance in the flux differences. These simple regression relations can be inverted to "retrieve" the errors in the geophysical parameters. Uncertainties (normalized by standard deviation) in the monthly mean retrieved parameters range from 7% for (Delta)T to about 20% for (Delta)q(sub t). Our initial application of the methodology employed an early CERES-TRMM data set (CLR and Radwn) to assess the quality of the GEOS2 data. The results showed that over the tropical and subtropical oceans GEOS2 is, in general, too wet in the upper troposphere (mean bias of 0.99 mm) and too dry in the lower troposphere (mean bias of -4.7 mm). We note that these errors, as well as a cold bias in the Tg, have largely been corrected in the current version of GEOS-2 with the introduction of a land surface model, a moist turbulence scheme and the assimilation of SSTM/I total precipitable water.

Wu, Man Li C.↗
NASA NTRS2001

Bias Correction and Random Error Characterization for the Assimilation of HRDI Line-of-Sight Wind Measurements

A new approach to the analysis of systematic and random observation errors is presented in which the error statistics are obtained using forecast data rather than observations from a different instrument type. The analysis is carried out at an intermediate retrieval level, instead of the more typical state variable space. This method is carried out on measurements made by the High Resolution Doppler Imager (HRDI) on board the Upper Atmosphere Research Satellite (UARS). HRDI, a limb sounder, is the only satellite instrument measuring winds in the stratosphere, and the only instrument of any kind making global wind measurements in the upper atmosphere. HRDI measures doppler shifts in the two different O2 absorption bands (alpha and B) and the retrieved products are tangent point Line-of-Sight wind component (level 2 retrieval) and UV winds (level 3 retrieval). This analysis is carried out on a level 1.9 retrieval, in which the contributions from different points along the line-of-sight have not been removed. Biases are calculated from O-F (observed minus forecast) LOS wind components and are separated into a measurement parameter space consisting of 16 different values. The bias dependence on these parameters (plus an altitude dependence) is used to create a bias correction scheme carried out on the level 1.9 retrieval. The random error component is analyzed by separating the gamma and B band observations and locating observation pairs where both bands are very nearly looking at the same location at the same time. It is shown that the two observation streams are uncorrelated and that this allows the forecast error variance to be estimated. The bias correction is found to cut the effective observation error variance in half.

Tangborn, Andrew↗
NASA NTRS2004

NASA GEOS-3/TRMM Re-analysis: Capturing Observed Tropical Rainfall Variability in Global Analysis for Climate Research

Understanding climate variability over a wide range of space-time scales requires a comprehensive description of the earth system. Global analyses produced by a fixed assimilation system (i.e., re-analyses) - as their quality continues to improve - have the potential of providing a vital tool for meeting this challenge. But at the present time, the usefulness of re-analyses is limited by uncertainties in such basic fields as clouds, precipitation, and evaporation - especially in the tropics, where observations are relatively sparse. Analyses of the tropics have long been shown to be sensitive to. the treatment of cloud precipitation processes, which remains a major source of uncertainty in current models. Yet, for many climate studies it is crucial that analyses can accurately reproduce the observed rainfall intensity and variability since a small error of 1 mm/d in surface rain translates into an error of approx. 30 W/sq m in energy (latent heat) flux. Currently, discrepancies between the observed and analyzed monthly-mean rain rates averaged to 100 km x 100 km resolution can exceed 4 mm/d (or 120 W/sq m ), compared to uncertainties in surface radiative fluxes of approx. 10-20 W/sq m . Improving precipitation in analyses would reduce a major source of uncertainty in the global energy budget. Uncertainties in tropical precipitation have also been a major impediment in understanding how the tropics interact with other regions, including the remote response to El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) variability on interannual time scales, the influence of Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) and monsoons on intraseasonal time scales. A global analysis that can replicate the observed precipitation variability together with physically consistent estimates of other atmospheric variables provides the key to breaking this roadblock. NASA Goddard Space Flight Center has been exploring the use of satellite-based microwave rainfall measurements in improving global analyses and has recently produced a multi-year, 1 x 1 TRMM re-analysis , which assimilates 6-hourly TMI and SSM/I surface rain rates over tropical oceans using a ID variational continuous assimilation (VCA) procedure in the GEOS-3 global data assimilation system. The analysis period extends from 1 November 1997 through 3 1 December 2002. The goal is to produce a multi-year global analysis that is dynamically consistent with available tropical precipitation observations for the community to assess its utility in climate applications and identify areas for further improvements. A distinct feature of the GEOS-3RRMh4 re-analysis is that its precipitation analysis is not derived from a short-term forecast (as done in most operational systems) but is given by a time- continuous model integration constrained by precipitation observations within a 6-h analysis window, while the wind, temperature, and pressure fields are allowed to directly respond to the improved precipitation and associated latent heating structures within the same analysis window. In this talk, I will assess the impact VCA precipitation assimilation on analyses of climate signals ranging from a few weeks to interannual time scales and compare results against other operational and reanalysis products.

Hou, Arthur Y.↗
NASA NTRS2022

Thermal Hydraulic Disaggregation of SMAP Soil Moisture Over the Continental United States

Thermal Hydraulic disaggregation of Soil Moisture (THySM) algorithm was implemented to downscale NASA’s Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) Enhanced soil moisture (SM) product to 1 km over the continental United States (CONUS). This algorithm was developed by combining thermal inertia theory with a soil hydraulic-based approach that considers fine-scale SM spatial distribution driven by both heat fluxes and hydraulic conductivity in soils. Relative soil wetness values were estimated using land surface temperature and normalized difference vegetation index for the thermal inertia model and using soil properties for the hydraulic model. The relative soil wetness values at 1 km from both models were then combined by using weighting functions whereby the spatial distribution of SM was governed more by thermal fluxes during times of strong heat transport and infiltration during moisture abundant soil conditions. THySM values were evaluated using in situ SM measurements from SMAP Core Validation Sites (CVS), the USDA Soil Climate Analysis Network, and the NOAA Climate Reference Network over CONUS. THySM shows higher accuracy than the SMAP / Sentinel-1 (SPL2SMAP_S) 1 km SM product when compared to in situ measurements. The accuracy of THySM is 0.048 m3/m3 based on unbiased root mean square error (ubRMSE), outperforming SPL2SMAP_S by 0.01-0.02 m3/m3. The ubRMSE of THySM 1km SM over the SMAP grassland/rangeland-dominated CVS sites is better than 0.04 m3/m3, which meets the SMAP mission SM accuracy requirement applied at 9 and 36 km.

SMAP↗
NASA NTRS2019

Emissions Relationships in Western Forest Fire Plumes: I. Reducing the Effect of Mixing Errors on Emission Factors

Studies of emission factors from biomass burning using aircraft data complement the results of lab studies and extend them to conditions of immense hot conflagrations. We illustrate and discuss emission relationships for 422 individual samples from many forest-fire plumes in the Western US. The samples are from two NASA investigations: ARCTAS (Arctic Research of the Composition of the Troposphere from Aircraft and Satellites) and SEAC4RS (Studies of Emissions and Atmospheric Composition, Clouds, and Climate Coupling by Regional Surveys). This work provides sample-by-sample enhancement ratios (EnRs) for 23 gases and particulate properties. Many EnRs provide candidates for emission ratios (ERs, corresponding to the EnR at the source) when the origin and degree of transformation is understood and appropriate. From these, emission factors (EFs) can be estimated when the fuel dry mass consumed is known or can be estimated using the carbon mass budget approach. This analysis requires understanding the interplay of mixing of the plume with surrounding air. Some initial examples emphasize that measured C(tot) = CO2 + CO in a fire plume does not necessarily describe the emissions of the total carbon liberated in the flames, C(burn). Rather, it represents C(tot) = C(burn) + C(bkgd), which includes possibly varying background concentrations for entrained air. Consequently, we present a simple theoretical description for plume entrainment for multiple tracers from flame to hundreds of kilometers downwind and illustrate some intrinsic linear behaviors. The analysis suggests a Mixed Effects Regression Emission Technique (MERET), which can eliminate occasional strong biases associated with the commonly used normalized excess mixing ratio (NEMR) method. MERET splits C(tot) to reveal C(burn) by exploiting the fact that C(burn) and all tracers respond linearly to dilution, while each tracer has consistent EnR behavior (slope of tracer concentration with respect to C(burn)). The two effects are separable. Two or three or preferably more emission indicators are required as a minimum; here we used ten. Limited variations in the EnRs for each tracer can be incorporated and the variations and co-variations analyzed. The percentage CO yield (or the modified combustion efficiency) plays some role. Other co-relationships involving nitrogen and organic classes are more prominent; these have strong relationships to the C(burn) to O3 emission relationship. In summary, MERET allows fine spatial resolution (EnRs for individual observations) and comparison of similar plumes distant in time and space. Alkene ratios provide us with an approximate photochemical timescale. This allows discrimination and definition, by fire situation, of ERs, allowing us to estimate emission factors.

Chatfield, Robert B.↗
DOE OSTI2023

Blind photovoltaic modeling intercomparison: A multidimensional data analysis and lessons learned

The Photovoltaic (PV) Performance Modeling Collaborative (PVPMC) organized a blind PV performance modeling intercomparison to allow PV modelers to blindly test their models and modeling ability against real system data. Measured weather and irradiance data were provided along with detailed descriptions of PV systems from two locations (Albuquerque, New Mexico, USA, and Roskilde, Denmark). Participants were asked to simulate the plane-of-array irradiance, module temperature, and DC power output from six systems and submit their results to Sandia for processing. The results showed overall median mean bias (i.e., the average error per participant) of 0.6% in annual irradiation and –3.3% in annual energy yield. While most PV performance modeling results seem to exhibit higher precision and accuracy as compared to an earlier blind PV modeling study in 2010, human errors, modeling skills, and derates were found to still cause significant errors in the estimates.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2020

Quantum approximate optimization of the long-range Ising model with a trapped-ion quantum simulator

Quantum computers and simulators may offer significant advantages over their classical counterparts, providing insights into quantum many-body systems and possibly improving performance for solving exponentially hard problems, such as optimization and satisfiability. Here, we report the implementation of a low-depth Quantum Approximate Optimization Algorithm (QAOA) using an analog quantum simulator. We estimate the ground-state energy of the Transverse Field Ising Model with long-range interactions with tunable range, and we optimize the corresponding combinatorial classical problem by sampling the QAOA output with high-fidelity, single-shot, individual qubit measurements. We execute the algorithm with both an exhaustive search and closed-loop optimization of the variational parameters, approximating the ground-state energy with up to 40 trapped-ion qubits. We benchmark the experiment with bootstrapping heuristic methods scaling polynomially with the system size. We observe, in agreement with numerics, that the QAOA performance does not degrade significantly as we scale up the system size and that the runtime is approximately independent from the number of qubits. We finally give a comprehensive analysis of the errors occurring in our system, a crucial step in the path forward toward the application of the QAOA to more general problem instances.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗