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At least 1,657 records · Page 92
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DOE OSTI2022

Reduction of microbial diversity in grassland soil is driven by long-term climate warming

Anthropogenic climate change threatens ecosystem functioning. Soil biodiversity is essential for maintaining the health of terrestrial systems, but how climate change affects the richness and abundance of soil microbial communities remains unresolved. Here, we examined the effects of warming, altered precipitation and annual biomass removal on grassland soil bacterial, fungal and protistan communities over 7 years to determine how these representative climate changes impact microbial biodiversity and ecosystem functioning. We show that experimental warming and the concomitant reductions in soil moisture play a predominant role in shaping microbial biodiversity by decreasing the richness of bacteria (9.6%), fungi (14.5%) and protists (7.5%). Our results also show positive associations between microbial biodiversity and ecosystem functional processes, such as gross primary productivity and microbial biomass. We conclude that the detrimental effects of biodiversity loss might be more severe in a warmer world.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Urban land patterns can moderate population exposures to climate extremes over the 21st century

Abstract Climate change and global urbanization have often been anticipated to increase future population exposure (frequency and intensity) to extreme weather over the coming decades. Here we examine how changes in urban land extent, population, and climate will respectively and collectively affect spatial patterns of future population exposures to climate extremes (including hot days, cold days, heavy rainfalls, and severe thunderstorm environments) across the continental U.S. at the end of the 21st century. Different from common impressions, we find that urban land patterns can sometimes reduce rather than increase population exposures to climate extremes, even heat extremes, and that spatial patterns instead of total quantities of urban land are more influential to population exposures. Our findings lead to preliminary suggestions for embedding long-term climate resilience in urban and regional land-use system designs, and strongly motivate searches for optimal spatial urban land patterns that can robustly moderate population exposures to climate extremes throughout the 21st century.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Resilience of Urban Transport Network-of-Networks under Intense Flood Hazards Exacerbated by Targeted Attacks

Natural hazards including floods can trigger catastrophic failures in interdependent urban transport network-of-networks (NoNs). Population growth has enhanced transportation demand while urbanization and climate change have intensified urban floods. However, despite the clear need to develop actionable insights for improving the resilience of critical urban lifelines, the theory and methods remain underdeveloped. Furthermore, as infrastructure systems become more intelligent, security experts point to the growing threat of targeted cyber-physical attacks during natural hazards. Here we develop a hypothesis-driven resilience framework for urban transport NoNs, which we demonstrate on the London Rail Network (LRN). We find that topological attributes designed for maximizing efficiency rather than robustness render the network more vulnerable to compound natural-targeted disruptions including cascading failures. Our results suggest that an organizing principle for post-disruption recovery may be developed with network science principles. Our findings and frameworks can generalize to urban lifelines and more generally to real-world spatial networks.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Los Alamos National Laboratory 2022 Annual Site Environmental Report (Rev. 2)

Los Alamos National Laboratory (Laboratory) annual site environmental reports are prepared each year by the Laboratory’s environmental organizations as required by U.S. Department of Energy Order 231.1B, Administrative Change 1, Environment, Safety, and Health Reporting, and Order 458.1, Administrative Change 4, Radiation Protection of the Public and the Environment. The chapters in this report discuss our compliance with environmental laws, regulations, and orders (Chapter 2, Compliance Summary); how we manage the Laboratory’s environmental performance and assure the quality of data from analysis of environmental samples (Chapter 3, Environmental Programs and Analytical Data Quality); how we monitor for air emissions of radioactive materials and for weather conditions (Chapter 4, Air Quality); how we monitor for effects of Laboratory operations on groundwater quality (Chapter 5, Groundwater Protection); how we monitor the levels of chemicals and radionuclides in storm water runoff and sediment (Chapter 6, Watershed Quality); how we monitor for the levels and effects of chemicals and radionuclides in plants, animals, soil, and vegetation (Chapter 7, Ecosystem Health); and finally, what radioactive dose or risk from chemical exposure that members of the public could experience as a result of Laboratory operations (Chapter 8, Public Dose and Risk Assessment).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Contrasting Responses of Hailstorms to Anthropogenic Climate Change in Different Synoptic Weather Systems

Hailstones and extreme precipitation generate substantial economic losses across the United States (US) and the globe. Their strong association with short-lived, intense convective storms poses a great challenge in predicting their future changes. Here, we conducted model simulations at 1.2 km grid spacing for severe convective storms with large hail and heavy precipitation that occurred in two typical types of synoptic-scale environments in spring seasons over the central US under both current and future climate conditions. We find that the responses of large hail (diameters >2.5 cm) to anthropogenic climate change (ACC) are markedly different between the hailstorms developed in the two types of synoptic-scale environments, with over 110% increase in large hail occurrences for the frontal systems, whereas less than 30% increase for the Great Plains low-level jet (GPLLJ) systems. This is explained by the larger increase in convective intensity and updraft width and a smaller increase in warm cloud depth in the frontal storms compared with the GPLLJ storms. Interestingly, the occurrences and intensity of heavy precipitation (rain rate >20 mm hr-1) in both types of systems are similarly sensitive to ACC (e.g., 40% and 33% increases in the occurrences for the frontal and GPLLJ systems, respectively). These results advance our knowledge of hail projection and have important implications for managing risks for future hail.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Site-specific field management adaptation is key to feeding the world in the 21st century

Rapid climate change and growing population threaten global food security across the globe. Several studies have proposed early planting, increased irrigation, and increased fertilizer applications as climate adaptation strategies, yet none have considered combined and site-specific field management strategies as a comprehensive solution. Here, we analyzed non-irrigated wheat yield responses to climate change and field management adaptation using a mechanistic crop model evaluated against observed global non-irrigated wheat-yield over 3-year intervals spanning 13 years at 3749 sites (RMSE = 36 gC m -2 ). Early planting with later-maturing varieties provided the most benefit to future yields among the proposed field management adaptation strategies. Improved water use efficiency from increased CO 2 led to relatively low benefits of additional irrigation. Here we estimated that spatially heterogeneous adaption strategies had the potential to improve global wheat yields by 91% by 2100 compared to the present day. The yield improvements from combined field adaptation strategies were larger than the sum of improvements from the individual strategies. These synergistic benefits were shown to result from complementary processes regulating nutrient and water uptake, physiological tolerance to heat stress, and internal carbon and nutrient cycling.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Effects of fine-root senescence upon soil communities and nutrient flux into soil pools (Final Report)

Fine roots represent an important flux of carbon into terrestrial soils. Much of this flux occurs through the exudation of polysaccharides and other carbon compounds during the lifetime of fine-roots, but little is known about their contributions to flux as roots senesce, die and decompose. This project was designed 1) to test approaches for inducing senescence in fine roots and 2) assess the effects of the treatments on fine roots and the associated rhizosphere community. We implemented two fine-root treatments, a steam girdling approach and full severing of fine root modules from the tree, and we contrasted them with a control where roots were handled but not girdled. Fine roots and their associated community subjected to each of these three treatments were subsequently analyzed for changes in physical structure, nutrient content, community structure and gene function. Both girdling manipulations resulted in tissue disruption in fine roots and changes in the soil community relative to controls. In particular, microbial diversity for most taxa declined in girdled treatments whereas fungal diversity increased. We also observed changes in overall plant and fungal gene expression associated with treatment with plant gene expression declining over time in girdled roots with a simultaneous increase in fungal gene expression in these same treatments. Finally, in girdled fine root modules, we observed changes in gene function associated with senescence and plant stress in pine-associated genes while at the same time observing upregulation of genes associated with growth and proliferation in fungi. In conclusion, we were able to successfully girdle fine-roots in a field setting and resolve plant-level and community level changes in response to these girdling treatments.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Photoperiod decelerates the advance of spring phenology of six deciduous tree species under climate warming

Abstract Vegetation phenology in spring has substantially advanced under climate warming, consequently shifting the seasonality of ecosystem process and altering biosphere–atmosphere feedbacks. However, whether and to what extent photoperiod (i.e., daylength) affects the phenological advancement is unclear, leading to large uncertainties in projecting future phenological changes. Here we examined the photoperiod effect on spring phenology at a regional scale using in situ observation of six deciduous tree species from the Pan European Phenological Network during 1980–2016. We disentangled the photoperiod effect from the temperature effect (i.e., forcing and chilling) by utilizing the unique topography of the northern Alps of Europe (i.e., varying daylength but uniform temperature distribution across latitudes) and examining phenological changes across latitudes. We found prominent photoperiod‐induced shifts in spring leaf‐out across latitudes (up to 1.7 days per latitudinal degree). Photoperiod regulates spring phenology by delaying early leaf‐out and advancing late leaf‐out caused by temperature variations. Based on these findings, we proposed two phenological models that consider the photoperiod effect through different mechanisms and compared them with a chilling model. We found that photoperiod regulation would slow down the advance in spring leaf‐out under projected climate warming and thus mitigate the increasing frost risk in spring that deciduous forests will face in the future. Our findings identify photoperiod as a critical but understudied factor influencing spring phenology, suggesting that the responses of terrestrial ecosystem processes to climate warming are likely to be overestimated without adequately considering the photoperiod effect.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Increasing atmospheric dryness reduces boreal forest tree growth

Rising atmospheric vapour pressure deficit (VPD) associated with climate change affects boreal forest growth via stomatal closure and soil dryness. However, the relationship between VPD and forest growth depends on the climatic context. Here we assess Canadian boreal forest responses to VPD changes from 1951-2018 using a well-replicated tree-growth increment network with approximately 5,000 species-site combinations. Of the 3,559 successful growth models, we observed a relationship between growth and concurrent summer VPD in one-third of the species-site combinations, and between growth and prior summer VPD in almost half of those combinations. The relationship between previous year VPD and current year growth was almost exclusively negative, while current year VPD also tended to reduce growth. Tree species, age, annual temperature, and soil moisture primarily determined tree VPD responses. Younger trees and species like white spruce and Douglas fir exhibited higher VPD sensitivity, as did areas with high annual temperature and low soil moisture. Since 1951, summer VPD increases in Canada have paralleled tree growth decreases, particularly in spruce species. Accelerating atmospheric dryness in the decades ahead will impair carbon storage and societal-economic services.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Rapidly changing high-latitude seasonality: implications for the 21st century carbon cycle in Alaska

Seasonal variations in high-latitude terrestrial carbon (C) fluxes are predominantly driven by air temperature and radiation. At present, high-latitude net C uptake is largest during the summer. Recent observations and modeling studies have demonstrated that ongoing and projected climate change will increase plant productivity, microbial respiration, and growing season lengths at high-latitudes, but impacts on high-latitude C cycle seasonality (and potential feedbacks to the climate system) remain uncertain. Here we use ecosys, a well-tested and process-rich mechanistic ecosystem model that we evaluate further in this study, to explore how climate warming under an RCP8.5 scenario will shift C cycle seasonality in Alaska throughout the 21st century. The model successfully reproduced recently reported large high-latitude C losses during the fall and winter and yet still predicts a high-latitude C sink, pointing to a resolution of the current conflict between process-model and observation-based estimates of high-latitude C balance. We find that warming will result in surprisingly large changes in net ecosystem exchange (NEE; defined as negative for uptake) seasonality, with spring net C uptake overtaking summer net C uptake by year 2100. This shift is driven by a factor of 3 relaxation of spring temperature limitation to plant productivity that results in earlier C uptake and a corresponding increase in magnitude of spring NEE from –19 to –144 gC m –2 season –1 by the end of the century. Although a similar relaxation of temperature limitation will occur in the fall, radiation limitation during those months will limit increases in C fixation. Additionally, warmer soil temperatures and increased carbon inputs from plants lead to combined fall and winter C losses (163 gC m –2 ) that are larger than summer net uptake (123 gC m –2 season –1 ) by year 2100. However, this increase in microbial activity leads to more rapid N cycling and increased plant N uptake during the fall and winter months that supports large increases in spring NPP. Due to the large increases in spring net C uptake, the high-latitude atmospheric C sink is projected to sustain throughout this century. Our analysis disentangles the effects of key environmental drivers of high-latitude seasonal C balances as climate changes over the 21st century.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Disturbance: a double-edged sword for restoration in a changing climate

Ecological restoration often relies on disturbance as a tool for establishing target plant communities, but disturbance can be a double-edged sword, at times initiating invasion and unintended outcomes. Here, in this study, we test how fire disturbance, designed to enhance restoration seeding success, combines with climate and initial vegetation conditions to shift perennial versus annual grass dominance and overall community diversity in Pacific Northwest grasslands. We seeded both native and introduced perennial grasses and native forbs in paired, replicated burned-unburned plots in three sites along a latitudinal climate gradient from southern Oregon to central-western Washington. Past restoration and climate manipulations at each site had increased the variation of starting conditions between plots. Burning promoted the expansion of extant forbs and perennial grasses across all sites. Burning also enhanced the seeding success of native perennial grass and native forbs at the northern and central site, and the success of introduced perennial grasses across all three sites. Annual grass dominance was driven more by latitude than burning, with annuals maintaining their dominance in the south and perennials in the north. At the same time, unrestored grasslands surrounding all sites remained dominated by perennial grasses, suggesting that initial plot clearing may have allowed for annual grass invasion in the southern site. When paired with disturbance, further warming may increase the risk of annual grass dominance, a potentially persistent state.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

A review of SWAT applications, performance and future needs for simulation of hydro-climatic extremes

Hydro-climatic extremes, such as droughts and floods, have most likely increased due to climatic change and could lead to severe impacts on socio-economic, structural and environmental sectors. With nearly 4000 publications, the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) is clearly one of the most extensively used ecohydrological models worldwide. The model has been widely used for projecting the impacts of future hydro-climatic changes, but application for extreme streamflow conditions is still rarely reported. To date, SWAT application reviews have focused on compilations of SWAT studies for specific or relatively new applications such as eco-hydrological modelling, ecosystem services, sub-daily simulations, and pesticide fate and transport simulations. However, no existing SWAT review studies have focused on simulation of hydro-climatic extremes. Furthermore, this research aims to bridge this gap by compiling and reviewing the findings of studies reporting SWAT hydro-climatic extremes including highlighting the performance and future research needs. A total of 111 articles have been identified since 1999; most of these studies were conducted in the United States and China. These articles can be divided into extreme flow assessments, drought studies, flood studies, drought and flood studies, SWAT coupling with other models, and SWAT improvements. Most of the extreme performance assessment studies reported “satisfactory ”performance, with a particular emphasis on peak flow comparisons. Future research needs regarding this topic include: (1) a unified SWAT extreme performance assessment framework; (2) SWAT improvements that result in improved replication of peak and low flows; (3) reliability assessment of global and satellite products for SWAT extreme simulations; (4) bias correction of CMIP6 and regional climate projections; (5) comparison of SWAT + and SWAT for extreme flow simulations in different types of basins; (6) development of an extreme flow module within an overall SWAT modelling system; and (7) integration of artificial intelligence within SWAT modelling.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2020

Monitoring Matang's Mangroves in Peninsular Malaysia through Earth observations: A globally relevant approach

Expansion of rotational timber harvesting of mangroves is set to increase, particularly given greater recognition of the economic, societal and environmental benefits. Generic and standardized procedures for monitoring mangroves are, therefore, needed to ensure their long-term sustainable utilisation. Focusing on the Matang Mangrove Forest Reserve (MMFR), Perak State, Peninsular Malaysia, thematic and continuous environmental descriptors with defined codes or units, including life form, forest age (years), canopy cover (%), above-ground biomass (Mg/ha) and relative amounts of woody debris (%), were retrieved from time-series data from spaceborne optical and single/dual polarimetric and interferometric RADAR. These were then combined for multiple points in time to generate land cover and evidence-based change maps according to the Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO) Land Cover Classification System (LCCS) and using the framework of the Earth Observation Data for Ecosystem Monitoring (EODESM). Change maps were based on a pre-defined taxonomy, with focus on clear cutting and regrowth. Uncertainties surrounding the land cover and change maps were based on those determined for the environmental descriptors used for their generation and through comparison with independent retrieval from other EO data sources. For the MMFR and also for other mangroves worldwide where harvesting is occurring or being considered, a new approach and opportunity for supporting management of mangroves is presented, which has application for future planning of mangrove resources.

Richard Lucas↗
DOE OSTI2023

Air-conditioning adoption and electricity demand highlight climate change mitigation–adaptation tradeoffs

Abstract We elucidate mid-century climate change impacts on electricity demand accounting for endogenous adoption of residential air-conditioning (AC) in affluent, cooler countries in Europe, and in poorer, hotter states in India. By 2050, in a high-warming scenario (SSP585) AC prevalence grows twofold in Europe and fourfold in India, reaching around 40% in both regions. We document a mitigation-adaptation tradeoff: AC expansion reduces daily heat exposures by 150 million and 3.8 billion person degree-days (PDDs), but increases annual electricity demand by 34 TWh and 168 TWh in Europe and India, respectively (corresponding to 2% and 15% of today’s consumption). The increase in adoption and use of AC would result in an additional 130 MMTCO2, of which 120 MMTCO2 in India alone, if the additional electricity generated were produced with today’s power mix. The tradeoff varies geographically and across income groups: a one PDD reduction in heat exposure in Europe versus India necessitates five times more electricity (0.53 kWh vs 0.1 kWh) and two times more emissions (0.16 kgCO $$_2$$ 2 vs 0.09 kgCO $$_2$$ 2 ), on average. The decomposition of demand drivers offers important insights on how such tradeoff can be moderated through policies promoting technology-based and behavioral-based adaptation strategies.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Carbon cycling across ecosystem succession in a north temperate forest: Controls and management implications

Despite decades of progress, much remains unknown about successional trajectories of carbon (C) cycling in north temperate forests. Drivers and mechanisms of these changes, including the role of different types of disturbances, are particularly elusive. To address this gap, we synthesized decades of data from experimental chronosequences and long-term monitoring at a well-studied, regionally representative field site in northern Michigan, USA. Our study provides a comprehensive assessment of changes in above- and belowground ecosystem components over two centuries of succession, links temporal dynamics in C pools and fluxes with underlying drivers, and offers several conceptual insights to the field of forest ecology. Our first advance shows how temporal dynamics in some ecosystem components are consistent across severe disturbances that reset succession and partial disturbances that slightly modify it: both of these disturbance types increase soil N availability, alter fungal community composition, and alter growth and competitive interactions between short-lived pioneer and longer-lived tree taxa. Further, these changes in turn affect soil C stocks, respiratory emissions, and other belowground processes. Second, we show that some other ecosystem components have effects on C cycling that are not consistent over the course of succession. For example, canopy structure does not influence C uptake early in succession but becomes important as stands develop, and the importance of individual structural properties changes over the course of two centuries of stand development. Third, we show that in recent decades, climate change is masking or overriding the influence of community composition on C uptake, while respiratory emissions are sensitive to both climatic and compositional change. In synthesis, we emphasize that time is not a driver of C cycling; it is a dimension within which ecosystem drivers such as canopy structure, tree and microbial community composition change. Changes in those drivers, not in forest age, are what control forest C trajectories, and those changes can happen quickly or slowly, through natural processes or deliberate intervention. Stemming from this view and a whole-ecosystem perspective on forest succession, we offer management applications from this work and assess its broader relevance to understanding long-term change in other north temperate forest ecosystems.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Taking stock of national climate policies to evaluate implementation of the Paris Agreement

Many countries have implemented national climate policies to accomplish pledged Nationally Determined Contributions and to contribute to the temperature objectives of the Paris Agreement on climate change. In 2023, the global stocktake will assess the combined effort of countries. Here, based on a public policy database and a multi-model scenario analysis, we show that implementation of current policies leaves a median emission gap of 22.4 to 28.2 GtCO 2 eq by 2030 with the optimal pathways to implement the well below 2 °C and 1.5 °C Paris goals. If Nationally Determined Contributions would be fully implemented, this gap would be reduced by a third. Interestingly, the countries evaluated were found to not achieve their pledged contributions with implemented policies (implementation gap), or to have an ambition gap with optimal pathways towards well below 2 °C. This shows that all countries would need to accelerate the implementation of policies for renewable technologies, while efficiency improvements are especially important in emerging countries and fossilfuel- dependent countries.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗