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At least 1,657 records · Page 92

Future Global Mortality from Changes in Air Pollution Attributable to Climate Change

Ground-level ozone and fine particulate matter (PM (sub 2.5)) are associated with premature human mortality; their future concentrations depend on changes in emissions, which dominate the near-term, and on climate change. Previous global studies of the air-quality-related health effects of future climate change used single atmospheric models. However, in related studies, mortality results differ among models. Here we use an ensemble of global chemistry-climate models to show that premature mortality from changes in air pollution attributable to climate change, under the high greenhouse gas scenario RCP (Representative Concentration Pathway) 8.5, is probably positive. We estimate 3,340 (30,300 to 47,100) ozone-related deaths in 2030, relative to 2000 climate, and 43,600 (195,000 to 237,000) in 2100 (14 percent of the increase in global ozone-related mortality). For PM (sub 2.5), we estimate 55,600 (34,300 to 164,000) deaths in 2030 and 215,000 (76,100 to 595,000) in 2100 (countering by 16 percent the global decrease in PM (sub 2.5)-related mortality). Premature mortality attributable to climate change is estimated to be positive in all regions except Africa, and is greatest in India and East Asia. Most individual models yield increased mortality from climate change, but some yield decreases, suggesting caution in interpreting results from a single model. Climate change mitigation is likely to reduce air-pollution-related mortality.

Atmohspheric chemistry↗

From Waste-Heat Recovery to Refrigeration: Compositional Tuning of Magnetocaloric Mn 1+ x Sb

Magnetic refrigeration, as well as waste-heat recovery, can be accomplished through the magnetocaloric effect, where temperature changes the magnetic state of a material or vice versa. Promising magnetocaloric materials display large changes in magnetic entropy (ΔS M ) upon application of a moderate magnetic field and are often associated with magnetic materials possessing some degree of magnetostructural coupling. In such compounds, the magnetic transition is coupled to some structural transition at the ordering temperature, and indicators for these are readily calculated by the magnetic deformation proxy Σ M . MnSb, with a Curie temperature T C = 577 K, has a calculated magnetic deformation of Σ M = 5.9% and is a promising candidate material for waste-heat recovery. The temperature dependence of structural, magnetic, and magnetocaloric properties of Mn 1+ x Sb, where $x$ is a tunable amount of interstitial Mn, is studied here. specifically, excess Mn is incorporated as an interstitial whose magnetic moment is antialigned with the stoichiometric Mn, and the excess Mn has the effect of lowering T C , such that the Curie temperature can be tuned from 577 K to nearly room temperature at 318 K for $x$ = 0.2. For $x$ = 0.0, 0.1, and 0.2, values of ΔS M under a maximum magnetic field $H$ = 5 T are found to be 3.65, 3.00, and 2.83 J K -1 kg -1 , respectively. While the maximum ΔS M decreases with $x$, the high refrigerant capacity a more holistic measure of performance-is retained in this highly tunable system.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Specimen-displacement correction for powder X-ray diffraction in Debye–Scherrer geometry with a flat area detector

The effect of small changes in the specimen-to-detector distance on the unit-cell parameters is examined for synchrotron powder diffraction in Debye–Scherrer (transmission) geometry with a flat area detector. An analytical correction equation is proposed to fix the shift in 2θ values due to specimen capillary displacement. This equation does not require the use of an internal reference material, is applied during the Rietveld refinement step, and is analogous to the specimen-displacement correction equations for Bragg–Brentano and curved-detector Debye–Scherrer geometry experiments, but has a different functional form. The 2θ correction equation is compared with another specimen-displacement correction based on the use of an internal reference material in which new integration and calibration parameters of area-detector images are determined. Example data sets showing the effect of a 3.3 mm specimen displacement on the unit-cell parameters for 25°C CeO 2 , including both types of displacement correction, are described. These experiments were performed at powder X-ray diffraction beamlines at the National Synchrotron Light Source II at Brookhaven National Laboratory and the Advanced Photon Source at Argonne National Laboratory.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

High–throughput measurement of plant fitness traits with an object detection method using Faster R–CNN

Revealing the contributions of genes to plant phenotype is frequently challenging because loss-of-function effects may be subtle or masked by varying degrees of genetic redundancy. Such effects can potentially be detected by measuring plant fitness, which reflects the cumulative effects of genetic changes over the lifetime of a plant. However, fitness is challenging to measure accurately, particularly in species with high fecundity and relatively small propagule sizes such as Arabidopsis thaliana. An image segmentation-based method using the software ImageJ and an object detection-based method using the Faster Region-based Convolutional Neural Network (R-CNN) algorithm were used for measuring two Arabidopsis fitness traits: seed and fruit counts. The segmentation-based method was error-prone (correlation between true and predicted seed counts, r 2 = 0.849) because seeds touching each other were undercounted. By contrast, the object detection-based algorithm yielded near perfect seed counts (r 2 = 0.9996) and highly accurate fruit counts (r 2 = 0.980). Comparing seed counts for wild-type and 12 mutant lines revealed fitness effects for three genes; fruit counts revealed the same effects for two genes. Our study provides analysis pipelines and models to facilitate the investigation of Arabidopsis fitness traits and demonstrates the importance of examining fitness traits when studying gene functions.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

The potential land requirements and related land use change emissions of solar energy

Although the transition to renewable energies will intensify the global competition for land, the potential impacts driven by solar energy remain unexplored. In this work, the potential solar land requirements and related land use change emissions are computed for the EU, India, Japan and South Korea. A novel method is developed within an integrated assessment model which links socioeconomic, energy, land and climate systems. At 25–80% penetration in the electricity mix of those regions by 2050, we find that solar energy may occupy 0.5–5% of total land. The resulting land cover changes, including indirect effects, will likely cause a net release of carbon ranging from 0 to 50 gCO 2 /kWh, depending on the region, scale of expansion, solar technology efficiency and land management practices in solar parks. Hence, a coordinated planning and regulation of new solar energy infrastructures should be enforced to avoid a significant increase in their life cycle emissions through terrestrial carbon losses.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

NPCC4: Tail Risk, Climate Drivers of Extreme Heat, and New Methods for Extreme Event Projections

We summarize historic New York City (NYC) climate change trends and provide the latest scientific analyses on projected future changes based on a range of global greenhouse gas emissions scenarios. Building on previous NPCC assessment reports, we describe new methods used to develop the projections of record for sea level rise, temperature, and precipitation for NYC, across multiple emissions pathways and analyze the issue of the “hot models” associated with the 6th phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) and their potential impact on NYC's climate projections. We describe the state of the science on temperature variability within NYC and explain both the large-scale and regional dynamics that lead to extreme heat events, as well as the local physical drivers that lead to inequitable distributions of exposure to extreme heat. We identify three areas of tail risk and potential for its mischaracterization, including the physical processes of extreme events and the effects of a changing climate. Finally, we review opportunities for future research, with a focus on the hot model problem and the intersection of spatial resolution of projections with gaps in knowledge in the impacts of the climate signal on intraurban heat and heat exposure.

NPCC4↗

The Completed SDSS-IV extended Baryon Oscillation Spectroscopic Survey: exploring the halo occupation distribution model for emission line galaxies

We study the modelling of the halo occupation distribution (HOD) for the eBOSS DR16 emission line galaxies (ELGs). Motivated by previous theoretical and observational studies, we consider different physical effects that can change how ELGs populate haloes. We explore the shape of the average HOD, the fraction of satellite galaxies, their probability distribution function (PDF), and their density and velocity profiles. Our baseline HOD shape was fitted to a semi-analytical model of galaxy formation and evolution, with a decaying occupation of central ELGs at high halo masses. We consider Poisson and sub/super-Poissonian PDFs for satellite assignment. We model both Navarro–Frenk–White and particle profiles for satellite positions, also allowing for decreased concentrations. We model velocities with the virial theorem and particle velocity distributions. Additionally, we introduce a velocity bias and a net infall velocity. We study how these choices impact the clustering statistics while keeping the number density and bias fixed to that from eBOSS ELGs. The projected correlation function, w p , captures most of the effects from the PDF and satellites profile. The quadrupole, ξ 2 , captures most of the effects coming from the velocity profile. We find that the impact of the mean HOD shape is subdominant relative to the rest of choices. Here, we fit the clustering of the eBOSS DR16 ELG data under different combinations of the above assumptions. The catalogues presented here have been analysed in companion papers, showing that eBOSS RSD+BAO measurements are insensitive to the details of galaxy physics considered here. These catalogues are made publicly available.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

3D reconstruction and neural rendering for adversarial machine learning

While evasion attacks on computer vision systems have been widely studied, creating attacks that remain effective under significant changes in viewpoint continues to be challenging. Traditional approaches often rely on affine transformations of images, but these approaches degrade at larger perspective shifts and often produce unrealistic or ineffective perturbations. Recent methods use differentiable renderers to improve viewpoint robustness, but they typically depend on manually constructed 3D models. We introduce a semi-automated pipeline that generates physically printable and perspective-invariant adversarial patches using only a small set of 2D images. Our method integrates 3D reconstruction, neural rendering, adversarial patch optimization, and an object detection victim model into a unified workflow. We use 2D Gaussian Splatting for high fidelity mesh reconstruction and FlexPara for surface parameterization that produces texture maps suitable for patch editing. Together, these components form a fully differentiable pipeline in PyTorch3D that links texture modification to model outputs, enabling efficient optimization of patches that remain effective across many viewpoints. The complete process, from image capture to patch printing and physical evaluation, can be completed within a few hours. We demonstrate the effectiveness of the resulting patches through attacks on the YOLOv8 object detection model and discuss remaining challenges and opportunities for improving robustness and scalability.

Singhvi, Vivaan [ORNL] (ORCID:0009000586288221)↗

Crustal Deformation and Gravitational Effects From Dynamic Ocean Mass Redistribution Impact Projected Sea‐Level Change

As the climate warms, associated changes in ocean dynamics will redistribute sea‐water mass within the ocean, contributing to relative sea‐level change. This mass redistribution will cause additional sea‐level changes due to gravitational self‐attraction, deformation of the solid Earth, and shifts in the Earth's rotation axis (GRD), which are not incorporated in sea‐level projections. Using CMIP6 climate model output, we quantify relative sea‐level changes induced by GRD from ocean‐dynamic mass loading through 2100. These effects act to amplify projected ocean‐dynamic sea‐level patterns, causing sea‐level rise in coastal regions, particularly along wide continental shelves and at high latitudes. On average, the magnitude of such GRD‐induced sea‐level change is equivalent to ∼15% of the signal due to dynamic ocean mass redistribution. Although our results show substantial inter‐model spread, they reveal that GRD‐induced relative sea‐level changes from ocean mass redistribution represent a non‐negligible component of regional sea‐level change and should be considered in projections.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Effects of Blade Sweep on V-22 Whirl Flutter and Loads

A CAMRAD II model of the V-22 Osprey tiltrotor was constructed for the purpose of analyzing the effects of blade design changes on whirl flutter. The model incorporated a dual load-path griplyoke assembly, a swashplate coupled to the transmission, and a drive train. A multiple-trailer free wake was used for loads calculations. The effects of rotor design changes on whirl-mode stability were calculated for swept blades and offset tip masses. A rotor with swept tips and inboard tuning masses was examined in detail to reveal the mechanisms by which these design changes affect stability and loads. Certain combinations of design features greatly increased whirl-mode stability, with (at worst) moderate increases to loads.

Acree, C. W., Jr.↗

Seasonal variation of the 11 year solar cycle effect on the middle atmosphere: Role of the quasi biennial oscillation

Before the introduction of the Quasi Biennial Oscillation (Q.B.O.) in the study of the solar atmosphere relationship by Labitzke (1987) and Labitzke and Van Loon (1988), the only region of the atmosphere where an effect of a change in solar activity was generally admitted was the mesosphere. The response of the mesosphere, in phase with the solar activity, was found to be about one order of magnitude above model expectancy (around 10 to 20 Kelvin). It was observed independently of the season and maximized around 70 km (Chanin et al. 1987). However, from the same study, it was shown that the response of the stratosphere of opposite sign, clearly seen during winter and autumn, was at the threshold of detection in spring and summer. In the stratosphere, it was shown later that the separation of the data taking into account the sign of the Q.B.O. amplifies the negative correlation of the stratospheric temperature with solar activity in winter; it then becomes more significantly negative for the East phase of the Q.B.O. than when the data are all mixed (Labitzke and Chanin 1988). The studies of the seasonal response of the atmosphere to solar effect is crucial to understand the possible mechanism responsible of such a solar activity Q.B.O. relationship, knowing that the global dynamic circulation is quite different according to the seasons. The question is examined as to whether such separation of the data according to the phase of the Q.B.O. has any impact on the solar response of the middle atmosphere for seasons other than winter.

Keckhut, P.↗

Mapping Forest Carbon Stocks to Understand Carbon Implications of Treatment on Wildfire for the Calwood Fire, Boulder County Colorado

Recent, record-breaking wildfire activity in the western U.S. illustrates the need for fire mitigation, such as forest fuels reduction treatments. Forests serve as crucial carbon sinks that combat the increasing effects of climate change, but fuels reduction treatments may remove carbon from forested systems. As a result, forest managers need to find a balance between fire mitigation and carbon preservation. This project partnered with Boulder County Parks and Open Space (BCPOS) and the University of Colorado, Denver to investigate the 2020 Cal-Wood fire in Boulder County, Colorado. Using remote sensing data from Landsat 8 Operational Land Imager, Shuttle Radar Topography Mission, Sentinel-2 MultiSpectral Imagery, and LiDAR, we mapped post-fire forest carbon pools and compared these values with values derived from field measurements. The analysis suggested that fuels reduction treatments did not reduce carbon loss in the presence of wildfire enough to clearly distinguish post-fire carbon between treated and untreated areas. However, the final carbon maps provide BCPOS and researchers with an opportunity to explore carbon estimation models based on remote sensing data as well as a framework to evaluate fuels reduction treatment effectiveness and impact on forest carbon stocks for future wildfire events.

Sarah Hettema↗

Effects of V-22 Blade Modifications on Whirl Flutter and Loads

A CAMRAD II model of the V-22 Osprey tiltrotor was constructed for the purpose of analyzing the effects of blade design changes on whirl flutter. The model incorporated a dual load-path grip/yoke assembly, a swashplate coupled to the transmission case, and a drive train. A multiple-trailer free wake was used for loads calculations. The effects of rotor design changes on whirl-mode stability were calculated for swept blades and offset tip masses. A rotor with swept tips and inboard tuning masses was examined in detail to reveal the mechanisms by which these design changes affect stability and loads. Certain combinations of design features greatly increased whirl-mode stability, with (at worst) moderate increases to loads.

Acree, C. W., Jr.↗

Effects of Swept Tips on V-22 Whirl Flutter and Loads

A CAMRAD II model of the V-22 Osprey tiltrotor was constructed for the purpose of analyzing the effects of blade design changes on whirl flutter. The model incorporated a dual load-path grip/yoke assembly, a swashplate coupled to the transmission case, and a drive train. A multiple-trailer free wake was used for loads calculations. The effects of rotor design changes on whirl-mode stability were calculated for swept blades and offset tip masses. A rotor with swept tips and inboard tuning masses was examined in detail to reveal the mechanisms by which these design changes affect stability and loads. Certain combinations of design features greatly increased whirl-mode stability, with (at worst) moderate increases to loads.

Acree, C. W., Jr.↗

Probing late-stage hadronic interactions at high baryon density via $K^{⁎0}$ production in the RHIC beam energy scan program

A precision measurement of the $K^{⁎0}$ meson yield is reported in Au+Au collisions at $\sqrt{s_{NN}}$ = 7.7, 11.5, 14.6, 19.6, and 27 GeV using the high-statistics data sample collected by the STAR experiment during the Beam Energy Scan II (BES-II) program at RHIC. The transeverse momentum (p T )-integrated yield ratios $\large{(}K^{⁎0} + \overline{K^{⁎0}}\large{)}/(K^+ + K^{-})$ in central collisions show a suppression relative to peripheral collisions at the (1.7–3.6) σ level, while a thermal model without final-stage rescattering overpredicts this ratio with a deviation of (6.9–8.2) σ. These results indicate a loss of the measured $K^{⁎0}$ signal in central collisions due to re-scattering of its hadronic decay products in the hadronic phase. The p T -integrated yield of charged kaons exhibits an approximate scaling with charged-particle multiplicity, independent of collision energy and system size. A similar trend is observed for the short-lived $K^{⁎0}$ resonance, although significant deviations emerge at lower energies. At BES energies, the $K^{⁎0}/K$ ratio shows stronger suppression than at the highest RHIC and LHC energies within a given multiplicity bin, particularly in central and mid-central collisions. This behavior is consistent with changes in the effective hadronic interaction cross section and is supported by transport model calculations, which indicate dominant meson–baryon interactions at lower energies and meson–meson interactions at higher energies.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

A Study of Cross Polarization Effects in Reflector Antenna Arrays

This paper addresses the issue of cross-polarized field components of an array of antennas as compared to that of individual elements of the array. For a single antenna, the co- and cross-polarization components are completely correlated in terms of phase and amplitude in a given direction. The co/cross-pol relations vary as a function of angular position from peak of the beam, which is important when there is pointing error. More specifically, for the reflector antennas, this relation might vary as the antenna points in different directions in azimuth and elevation, due to the changes in gravity profile, wind effects, temperature changes, etc., on the surface and feed/sub/main reflector alignment. In an array environment, these changes will vary among various antennas in the array, and indeed very small mechanical and design variations in the antenna elements (in terms of feed horns, feed/reflector misalignments, surface variations, etc., will contribute to the cross polarization variations.

cross polarization↗

Hot accretion disks with pairs: Effects of magnetic field and thermal cyclocsynchrotron radiation

We show the effects of thermal cyclosynchrotron radiation and magnetic viscosity on the structure of hot, two-temperature accretion disks. Magnetic field, B, is assumed to be randomly oriented and the ratio of magnetic pressure to either gas pressure, alpha = P(sub mag)/P(sub gas), or the sum of the gas and radiation pressures, alpha = (P(sub mag)/P(sub gas) + P(sub rad)), is fixed. We find those effects do not change the qualitative properties of the disks, i.e., there are still two critical accretion rates related to production of e(sup +/-) pairs, (M dot)((sup U)(sub cr)) and (M dot)((sup L)(sub cr)), that affect the number of local and global disk solutions, as recently found by Bjoernsson and Svensson for the case with B = 0. However, a critical value of the alpha-viscosity parameter above which those critical accretion rates disappear becomes smaller than alpha(sub cr) = 1 found in the case of B = 0, for P(sub mag) = alpha(P(sub gas) + P(sub rad)). If P(sub mag) = alpha P(sub gas), on the other hand, alpha(sub cr) is still about unity. Moreover, when Comptonized cyclosynchrotron radiation dominates Comptonized bremsstrahlung, radiation from the disk obeys a power law with the energy spectral index of approximately 0.5, in a qualitative agreement with X-ray observations of active galactic nuclei (AGNS) and Galactic black hole candidates. We also extend the hot disk solutions for P(sub mag) = alpha(P(sub gas) + P(sub rad)) to the effectively optically thick region, where they merge with the standard cold disk solutions. We find that the mapping method by Bjoernsson and Svensson gives a good approximation to the disk structure in the hot region and show where it breaks in the transition region. Finally, we find a region in the disk parameter space with no solutions due to the inability of Coulomb heating to supply enough energy to electrons.

Kusunose, Masaaki↗

Using Landsat 8 Satellite Imagery to Analyze Biogeochemical Constituents in the Waters of the San Francisco Bay Area and Beyond

The ocean's coastal zones play a key role in our planet's health and mitigate the adverse effects of climate change. Building on the success of NASA satellite imagery in mapping land cover changes around the globe in response to climate change, deforestation, and natural disasters, I have worked to determine how aquatic reflectance images from the Landsat 8 sensor could be correlated with biogeochemical constituents within the waters of the San Francisco Bay Area and California coastline. By analyzing Landsat 8 satellite imagery from the years 2013-2020 in collaboration with data from the United States Geological Survey (USGS), San Francisco Estuary Institute (SFEI), and universities involved with the Harmful Algal Bloom Monitoring and Alert Program (HABMAP), I investigated which areas of the San Francisco Bay and California coastline demonstrated significant correlations with values extracted from the satellite imagery. Using a Chlorophyll Index (CI) ratio calculated from two Landsat 8 satellite reflectance bands, it was found that there is a positive correlation between the CI and calculated oxygen, suspended particulate matter, and silicate from several USGS sampling points. In contrast, there is a significant negative correlation between the CI and salinity, nitrite, and phosphate at those same locations. Moreover, large suspected harmful algal blooms (HABs) along the California coastline seen in the Landsat 8 imagery were corroborated with HAB data from various institutions. Understanding the effectiveness of Landsat 8 aquatic reflectance images will allow scientists to predict HABs and other nutrient cycling that may be harmful to aquatic ecosystems around the world.

Landsat↗