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All sources NASA NTRS DOE OSTI

DOE OSTI2023

PyApprox: A software package for sensitivity analysis, Bayesian inference, optimal experimental design, and multi-fidelity uncertainty quantification and surrogate modeling

PyApprox is a Python-based one-stop-shop for probabilistic analysis of numerical models such as those used in the earth, environmental and engineering sciences. Easy to use and extendable tools are provided for constructing surrogates, sensitivity analysis, Bayesian inference, experimental design, and forward uncertainty quantification. The algorithms implemented represent a wide range of methods for model analysis developed over the past two decades, including recent advances in multi-fidelity approaches that use multiple model discretizations and/or simplified physics to significantly reduce the computational cost of various types of analyses. An extensive set of Benchmarks from the literature is also provided to facilitate the easy comparison of new or existing algorithms for a wide range of model analyses. Here, this paper introduces PyApprox and its various features, and presents results demonstrating the utility of PyApprox on a benchmark problem modeling the advection of a tracer in groundwater.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS1987

Autonomous control procedures for shuttle rendezvous proximity operations

The results are presented of a study which uses fuzzy sets to model a Space Shuttle pilot's reasoning and actions while performing rendezvous proximity operation maneuvers. In this model fuzzy sets are used to simulate smooth and continuous actions as would be expected from an experienced pilot and to simulate common sense reasoning in the decision process. The present model assumes visual information available to the Shuttle pilot from the Shuttle Crew Optical Alignment Sighting (COAS) device and the overhead window and rendezvous radar sensor information available to him from an onboard display. This model will be used in a flight analysis simulator to perform studies requiring a large number of runs, each of which currently needs an engineer in the loop to supply the piloting decisions. This work has much broader implications in control of robots such as the Flight Telerobotic Servicer, in automated pilot control and attitude control, and in advisory and evaluation functions that could be used for flight data monitoring or for testing of various rule sets in flight preparation.

Lea, Robert N.↗

NASA NTRS1971

Analysis of simulated multispectral data from earth resources satellites

The validity of the applicability assumption was determined through the simulation of ERTS and Skylab data using available aircraft scanner systems. The research techniques compared aircraft multispectral scanner data obtained under nominal conditions at low altitudes. Maximum likelihood decision criteria algorithms implemented on a digital computer were used to classify training set data. Comparisons between percentages of correct classifications were made, along with implications as to the techniques of satellite analysis.

White, D. A.↗

DOE OSTI2025

Environmental and socio-economic Pareto-front trade-off analysis of U.S. PET packaging material in a circular economy

Various recycling technologies are emerging to implement circular economy in plasticssupply chain systems. However, the environmental and socio-economic trade-offs of in circular economy are not well understood at a systems level. Particularly, quantifying these trade-offs as a function of end-of-life (EOL) management decisions, including transition of recycling technologies, systems level metrics such as circularity, recycled content, and the need for fossil-derived plastics are not well understood. Here, the present study addressed these research gaps by applying a systems analysis modeling approach that utilizes material flow analysis, life cycle assessment, socioeconomic data, and system optimization techniques for polyethylene terephthalate (PET) packaging supply chains in the United States. Pareto-front trade-offs between conflicting environmental and socio-economic impacts as well as those between socioeconomic impacts and circularity were explored using the epsilon constraint method. The Pareto-front trade-off analysis revealed the transition of EOL management strategies for PET packaging systems, including changes in selection of recycling technologies, to aid decision making process by quantifying studied system metrics. Transitioning from environmentally optimal to socio-economically optimal systems led to increased employment (by 17%), wages (by 26%), and revenues (by 6%) but also led to increased global warming potential (GWP; by 65%), energy consumption (by 59%), and reliance on fossil PET in the system (by 78%). Finally, the results show that there is not a unique set of recycling technologies to achieve a sustainable circular economy of PET packaging system, instead it depends on the decision maker’s objectives and targeted metrics of the system.

54 - ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES/GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE ↗

DOE OSTI2024

Advanced Signal Decomposition Analysis and Anomaly Detection in Photovoltaic Systems

With the rapid expansion of large-scale photovoltaic (PV) plants, it is paramount for solar stakeholders to understand the reliability and efficiency of their plants to inform maintenance decisions, increase production, and understand the design factors that impact performance. Diagnosing underperformance in PV plants is challenging due to the relatively few monitoring points with respect to the large geographic footprint of the plant. This work introduces a cutting-edge method that transforms the analysis and management of key factors influencing PV plant performance, including performance loss rate (PLR), recoverable soiling, and major system changes. Identifying these factors is critical for deriving actionable insights. Leveraging advanced analytical techniques such as wavelet transformation, robust regression, and extreme point analysis, this approach provides a nuanced understanding of these factors. This method has been tested across two synthetic datasets and one real dataset, consistently surpassing existing benchmarks by achieving a lower median mean absolute error and reduced error variability across all comparable components.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2016

Content analysis in information flows

The paper deals with architecture of content recognition system. To analyze the problem the stochastic model of content recognition in information flows was built. We proved that under certain conditions it is possible to solve correctly a part of the problem with probability 1, viewing a finite section of the information flow. That means that good architecture consists of two steps. The first step determines correctly certain subsets of contents, while the second step may demand much more time for true decision.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2023

A comparative analysis of US state-level policies and programs to advance energy justice

Abstract The US energy system is undergoing massive changes that have environmental, technological, and societal implications. Decisions and actions taken now will dramatically alter the trajectory of our future energy system. Though new technologies can lessen the dangers of anthropogenic climate change, an effective and sustainable transition requires addressing social justice issues as a priority. To this end, many states have implemented policies and programs that address energy justice. A formal survey of state-level energy justice policies and programs is needed to better understand the methods used to assist communities targeted and the impacts of these efforts. Such an analysis should include an analysis of the metrics used to judge the effectiveness of the enacted policies and programs. In this paper, we analyze the energy justice policies and programs of seven different US states. From this analysis, we identify three important aspects of state energy policies. First, most policies and programs do not articulate their goals, nor cite metrics to judge their successes. This lack of transparency and accountability is a major roadblock to truly just solutions. Second, states focus on a very narrow range of solutions for energy justice issues. The most prevalent being utility bill assistance, which does not address the systemic and enduring challenges faced by many low-income or historically marginalized communities. Lastly, comprehensive energy policy does not acknowledge and address housing, employment, education, and healthcare inequities that exacerbate energy system inequities. The work presented in this paper sheds light on the progress of state-level energy justice policies and programs across the United States, and we argue more work needs to be done to understand best practices in energy justice policymaking.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

NASA NTRS2009

A Survey of New Trends in Symbolic Execution for Software Testing and Analysis

Symbolic execution is a well-known program analysis technique which represents values of program inputs with symbolic values instead of concrete (initialized) data and executes the program by manipulating program expressions involving the symbolic values. Symbolic execution has been proposed over three decades ago but recently it has found renewed interest in the research community, due in part to the progress in decision procedures, availability of powerful computers and new algorithmic developments. We provide a survey of some of the new research trends in symbolic execution, with particular emphasis on applications to test generation and program analysis. We first describe an approach that handles complex programming constructs such as input data structures, arrays, as well as multi-threading. We follow with a discussion of abstraction techniques that can be used to limit the (possibly infinite) number of symbolic configurations that need to be analyzed for the symbolic execution of looping programs. Furthermore, we describe recent hybrid techniques that combine concrete and symbolic execution to overcome some of the inherent limitations of symbolic execution, such as handling native code or availability of decision procedures for the application domain. Finally, we give a short survey of interesting new applications, such as predictive testing, invariant inference, program repair, analysis of parallel numerical programs and differential symbolic execution.

Pasareanu, Corina S.↗

DOE OSTI2021

DAKOTA (Design Analysis Kit for Optimization and Terascale) v.6.14

Sandia's Dakota software supports science and engineering transformation through advanced exploration of simulations. Specifically, Dakota manages and analyzes ensembles of simulations to provide broader and deeper perspective for analysts and decision makers. This enables them to: (1) enhance understanding of risk, (2) improve products, and (3) assess simulation credibility. In its simplest mode, Dakota can automate typical parameter variation studies through a generic interface to a computational model. Dakota also delivers advanced parametric analysis techniques enabling design exploration, optimization, model calibration, risk analysis, and quantification of margins and uncertainty with such models. It directly supports verification and validation activities. The algorithms implemented in Dakota aim to address challenges in performing these analyses with complex science and engineering models from desktop to high performance computers. Sandia National Laboratories is a multimission laboratory managed and operated by National Technology & Engineering Solutions of Sandia, LLC, a wholly owned subsidiary of Honeywell International Inc., for the U.S. Department of Energy’s National Nuclear Security Administration under contract DE-NA0003525 SAND2021-10468 O

Adams, BrianM.↗

DOE OSTI2021

DAKOTA (Design Analysis Kit for Optimization and Terascale) v.6.16

Adams, BrianM.↗

NASA NTRS1982

Application of optimal control principles to describe the supervisory control behavior of AAA crew members

Supervisory decision making and control behavior within a C(3) oriented, ground based weapon system is being studied. The program involves empirical investigation of the sequence of control strategies used during engagement of aircraft targets. An engagement is conceptually divided into several stages which include initial information processing activity, tracking, and ongoing adaptive control decisions. Following a brief description of model parameters, two experiments which served as initial investigation into the accuracy of assumptions regarding the importance of situation assessment in procedure selection are outlined. Preliminary analysis of the results upheld the validity of the assumptions regarding strategic information processing and cue-criterion relationship learning. These results indicate that this model structure should be useful in studies of supervisory decision behavior.

Hale, C.↗

DOE OSTI2013

Biogas Potential in the United States (Fact Sheet)

Biogas has received increased attention as an alternative energy source in the United States. The factsheet provides information about the biogas (methane) potential from various sources in the country (by county and state) and estimates the power generation and transportation fuels production (renewable natural gas) potential from these biogas sources. It provides valuable information to the industry, academia and policy makers in support of their future decisions.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

NASA NTRS1976

Interactive analysis of thermal imagery

Necessary knowledge is presented on data acquisition and preparation for analysis of thermal imagery of power plant heated discharges remotely sensed from an aircraft, with special emphasis on analog to digital conversion of analog tapes acquired during scanning and to geometrical scaling. The central element in the interactive analysis of thermal imagery is an interactive graphics computer terminal which allows an interpreter to effectively interact with a large-scale computer, providing decisions or data as computations are carried out. A temperature calibration is performed, which the interpreter may test anywhere on the image. When satisfied that calibration is correct, the portion of the image to be analyzed is outlined. Printed and microfiche analyses of the plume are produced. The flow chart of programs for analysis of thermal imagery is presented and discussed in some detail.

Madding, R. P.↗

DOE OSTI1996

Nuclear Safety [Vol. 37, No. 1, January-March 1996]

Nuclear Safety is a journal that covers significant issues in the field of nuclear safety. Its primary scope is safety in the design, construction, operation, and decommissioning of nuclear power reactors worldwide and the research and analysis activities that promote this goal, but it also encompasses the safety aspects of the entire nuclear fuel cycle, including fuel fabrication, spent-fuel processing and handling, and nuclear waste disposal, the handling of fissionable materials and radioisotopes, and the environmental effects of all these activities. Table of Contents for this issue follows. GENERAL SAFETY CONSIDERATIONS: 1 A Decision Support System for Maintenance Management of a Boiling-Water Reactor Power Plant, J. H. Shen, A. Ray, and S. Levine; ACCIDENT ANALYSIS: 12 On Prediction of the Ignition Potential of Uranium Metal and Hydride, M. Epstein, W. Luangdilok, M. G. Plys, and H. K. Fauske; 26 An Overview of the Primary Parameters and Methods for Determining Condensation Heat Transfer to Containment Structures, J. Green and K. Almenas; DESIGN FEATURES: 49 Modem Tornado Design of Nuclear and Other Potentially Hazardous Facilities, J. D. Stevenson and Y. Zaho; U.S. NUCLEAR REGULATORY COMMISSION INFORMATION AND ANALYSES: 73 1994 Accident Sequence Precursor Program Results, R. J. Belles, J. W. Cletcher, D. A. Coplnger, B. W. Dolan, J. W. Minarick, and P. D. O'Reilly; ANNOUNCEMENTS: 93 American Institute of Chemical Engineers (AlChE) Spring 1997 National Meeting; 94 European Safety and Reliability Association International Conference on Safety and Reliability ESREL ’97; 95 Criticality Safety Challenges in the Next Decade; 96 21st International Symposium on the Scientific Basis for Nuclear Waste Management; 84 The Authors; 88 Letter to the Editor; 90 Indexes to Nuclear Safety, Volume 36.

05 NUCLEAR FUELS↗

DOE OSTI1996

Nuclear Safety [Vol. 37, No. 1, January-March 1996]

Nuclear Safety is a journal that covers significant issues in the field of nuclear safety. Its primary scope is safety in the design, construction, operation, and decommissioning of nuclear power reactors worldwide and the research and analysis activities that promote this goal, but it also encompasses the safety aspects of the entire nuclear fuel cycle, including fuel fabrication, spent-fuel processing and handling, and nuclear waste disposal, the handling of fissionable materials and radioisotopes, and the environmental effects of all these activities. Table of Contents for this issue follows. GENERAL SAFETY CONSIDERATIONS: 1 A Decision Support System for Maintenance Management of a Boiling-Water Reactor Power Plant, J. H. Shen, A. Ray, and S. Levine; ACCIDENT ANALYSIS: 12 On Prediction of the Ignition Potential of Uranium Metal and Hydride, M. Epstein, W. Luangdilok, M. G. Plys, and H. K. Fauske; 26 An Overview of the Primary Parameters and Methods for Determining Condensation Heat Transfer to Containment Structures, J. Green and K. Almenas; DESIGN FEATURES: 49 Modem Tornado Design of Nuclear and Other Potentially Hazardous Facilities, J. D. Stevenson and Y. Zaho; U.S. NUCLEAR REGULATORY COMMISSION INFORMATION AND ANALYSES: 73 1994 Accident Sequence Precursor Program Results, R. J. Belles, J. W. Cletcher, D. A. Copinger, B. W. Dolan, J. W. Minarick, and P. D. O'Reilly; ANNOUNCEMENTS: 93 American Institute of Chemical Engineers (AlChE) Spring 1997 National Meeting; 94 European Safety and Reliability Association International Conference on Safety and Reliability ESREL ’97; 95 Criticality Safety Challenges in the Next Decade; 96 21st International Symposium on the Scientific Basis for Nuclear Waste Management; 84 The Authors; 88 Letter to the Editor; 90 Indexes to Nuclear Safety, Volume 36.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

DOE OSTI2018

Including health in environmental impact assessments of three mega transport projects in Sydney, Australia: A critical, institutional, analysis

This article details how health impacts came to be assessed in three mega, billion dollar, transport infrastructure projects, two road tunnels and one light rail, in Sydney Australia. The known health impacts of transport decisions include environmental, behavioural and social factors. EIA practice prioritises environmental risks, and there has been scant attention to understanding why this is persistently the case. Here we provide a critical theory lens, using critical realist methodology, to analyse empirical data collected through interviews and documents for the three cases. Our analysis focusses on EIA practice within its institutional context, building on ‘new institutional’ approaches to policy analysis that emphasise actors (the stakeholders involved in the EIA), structures (the ‘rules of the game’ that influence practice in systems), and power. We find that the various actors engaged in the EIAs principally to address particular goals that were pre-determined by the system in which they worked or belonged. Structurally, each EIA was undertaken as a compliance process relatively late in the planning process. Considering project options was not part of the EIA's purpose. Resources to undertake the EIAs were provided by those funding the projects (“the proponents”) and determined the types of issues to be considered. The full range of links between transport and health were not identified. Concerning power, health impacts were considered through inter-professional technical negotiation. The inability to engage in the fundamental options driving projects meant impacted communities questioned the validity of the EIA, and the health assessment within this. Our institutional analysis provides important knowledge about how the EIAs preferenced a focus on specific health risks to the detriment of the known broader determinants that shape the health impacts of transport.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2012

Sustainable Biofuel Project: Emergy Analysis of South Florida Energy Crops

This study evaluates the sustainability of various farming systems, namely (1) sugarcane on organic and mineral soils and (2) energycane and sweet sorghum on mineral soils. The primary objective of the study is to compare the relative sustainability matrices of these energy crops and their respective farming systems. These matrices should guide decision and policy makers to determine the overall sustainability of an intended or proposed bioethanol project related to any of these studied crops. Several different methods of energy analysis have been proposed to assess the feasibility or sustainability of projects exploiting natural resources (such as (Life Cycle Analysis, Energy Analysis, Exergy Analysis, Cost Benefit Analysis, Ecological Footprint, etc.). This study primarily focused on the concept of Emergy Analysis, a quantitative analytical technique for determining the values of nonmonied and monied resources, services and commodities in common units of the solar energy it took to make them. With this Emergy Analysis study, the Hendry County Sustainable Biofuels Center intends to provide useful perspective for different stakeholder groups to (1) assess and compare the sustainability levels of above named crops cultivation on mineral soils and organic soils for ethanol production and (2) identify processes within the cultivation that could be targeted for improvements. The results provide as much insight into the assumptions inherent in the investigated approaches as they do into the farming systems in this study.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

DOE OSTI2022

PyApprox: Enabling efficient model analysis

PyApprox is a Python-based one-stop-shop for probabilistic analysis of scientific numerical models. Easy to use and extendable tools are provided for constructing surrogates, sensitivity analysis, Bayesian inference, experimental design, and forward uncertainty quantification. The algorithms implemented represent the most popular methods for model analysis developed over the past two decades, including recent advances in multi-fidelity approaches that use multiple model discretizations and/or simplified physics to significantly reduce the computational cost of various types of analyses. Simple interfaces are provided for the most commonly-used algorithms to limit a user’s need to tune the various hyper-parameters of each algorithm. However, more advanced work flows that require customization of hyper-parameters is also supported. An extensive set of Benchmarks from the literature is also provided to facilitate the easy comparison of different algorithms for a wide range of model analyses. This paper introduces PyApprox and its various features, and presents results demonstrating the utility of PyApprox on a benchmark problem modeling the advection of a tracer in ground water.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗