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NASA NTRS2001

Lightweight Structures

Present structural concepts for hot static structures are conventional "sheet & stringer" or truss core construction. More weight-efficient concepts such as honeycomb and lattice block are being investigated, in combination with both conventional superalloys and TiAl. Development efforts for components made from TiAl sheet are centered on lower cost methods for sheet and foil production, plus alloy development for higher temperature capability. A low-cost casting technology recently developed for aluminum and steel lattice blocks has demonstrated the required higher strength and stiffness, with weight efficiency approach- ing honeycombs. The current effort is based on extending the temperature capability by developing lattice block materials made from IN-718 and Mar-M247.

Whittenberger, J. Daniel↗

NASA NTRS2019

New York City Panel on Climate Change 2019 Report Chapter 3: Sea Level Rise

The New York City Panel on Climate Change (NPCC, 2015) sea level rise projections provide the current scientific basis for New York City scientific decision making and planning, as reflected in, for example, the City's Climate Resiliency Design Guidelines. However, since the IPCC (2013) and NPCC (2015) reports, recent observations show mounting glacier and ice sheet losses leading to rising sea levels. Furthermore, new developments in modeling interactions between oceans, atmosphere, and ice sheets suggest the possibility of a significantly higher global mean sea level rise (GMSLR) by 2100 than previously anticipated, particularly under elevated greenhouse gas emission scenarios.

Gornitz, Vivien M.↗

NASA NTRS2023

A computationally efficient statistically downscaled 100 m resolution Greenland product from the regional climate model MAR

The Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) has been contributing directly to sea level rise, and this contribution is projected to accelerate over the next decades. A crucial tool for studying the evolution of surface mass loss (e.g., surface mass balance, SMB) consists of regional climate models (RCMs), which can provide current estimates and future projections of sea level rise associated with such losses. However, one of the main limitations of RCMs is the relatively coarse horizontal spatial resolution at which outputs are currently generated. Here, we report results concerning the statistical downscaling of the SMB modeled by the Modèle Atmosphérique Régional (MAR) RCM from the original spatial resolution of 6 km to 100 m building on the relationship between elevation and mass losses in Greenland. To this goal, we developed a geospatial framework that allows the parallelization of the downscaling process, a crucial aspect to increase the computational efficiency of the algorithm. Using the results obtained in the case of the SMB, surface and air temperature are assessed through the comparison of the modeled outputs with in situ and satellite measurement. The downscaled products show a considerable improvement in the case of the downscaled product with respect to the original coarse output, with the coefficient of determination (R 2 ) increasing from 0.868 for the original MAR output to 0.935 for the SMB downscaled product. Moreover, the value of the slope and intercept of the linear regression fitting modeled and measured SMB values shifts from 0.865 for the original MAR to 1.015 for the downscaled product in the case of the slope and from the value −235 mm w.e. yr -1 (original) to −57 mm w.e. yr -1 (downscaled) in the case of the intercept, considerably improving upon results previously published in the literature.

Greenland Ice Sheet↗

DOE OSTI2024

Influence of Antarctic and Greenland Continental Shelf Circulation on High‐Latitude Oceans in E3SM

The science objectives of this project are to simulate and understand the impacts of both deep-basin warm-water intrusions and land-ice melt on the continental shelf circulations and sea-ice distributions around the margins of Greenland and Antarctica. As well, the role of subsurface ocean heat from the Atlantic on declining sea-ice cover in the Arctic is explored. Mesoscale processes and fine bathymetry are implicated in cross-shelf property transports around both Greenland and Antarctica. Therefore, we configured and ran an atmospheric reanalysis-forced global ocean/sea-ice simulation on a grid that reduces from 8 km at the Equator to 2 km at the poles (UH8to2) with 60 vertical levels. It was produced using the Energy Exascale Earth System Model ‘‘HiLAT’’ code (E3SMv0-HiLAT) that uses the Parallel Ocean Program (POP) and CICE5 as its ocean and sea-ice components, respectively. Two main UH8to2 simulations were carried out: one for 1975-2009 and the other for July 2016-2020 after it was initialized from a 1/25° data-assimilative ocean/sea-ice prediction system ocean/sea-ice state. The UH8to2 is not coupled to an active land-ice model. Rather, land-ice melt is represented by observationally informed freshwater fluxes (FWFs). Short (multi-year) UH8to2 simulations were conducted to understand sensitivities when Greenland ice sheet (GrIS) melt is released only at the ocean surface or when it is distributed over the upper water column in accordance with fjord melt plume behavior; these cases were compared with a no GrIS melt case. West Greenland continental shelf currents were fastest in the vertical distribution case and an increase in baroclinic conversion at the shelf break associated with increased eddy kinetic energy was found relative to the surface release case. Further, salinity is lower and meltwater volume greater in the eastern Labrador Sea in the vertical distribution case. For the Arctic, the veracity of the UH8to2 was evaluated for 2017-2020 using available observations. Simulated seasonal sea-ice thickness and concentration are realistic, but the ice is unrealistically thin in the central and eastern Arctic in the fall. Comparisons of vertical sections of ocean temperature, salinity, and buoyancy collected from Ice-Tethered Profilers (ITPs) in the eastern Arctic in the fall and winter of 2019/2020 and co-located/concurrent UH8to2 fields show the stratification over the top 100 m of the water column is too low in the model, the simulated mixed layer too deep, and the simulated subsurface Atlantic Water (AW) too warm; these biases may contribute to the sea-ice biases. A model intercomparison study using the UH8to2 and a forced 1/25° regional Arctic ocean/sea-ice (uses the HYbrid Coordinate Ocean Model and CICE5) simulation further investigates the relationship between AW and sea-ice in the eastern Arctic. The models show a mesoscale-rich pulse of Atlantic Water extending into the eastern basin that reaches maximum intensity in late winter of 2018, after which it decreases in strength. Concurrent and co-located sea-ice melt or the inhibition of sea-ice growth is seen and is attributed to halocline mesoscale eddies doming into the mixed layer with convection bringing this heat into the vicinity of the sea-ice.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS1979

Energetic particle precipitation into the high-latitude ionosphere and the auroral electrojets. I - Definition of electrojet boundaries using energetic electron spectra and ground-based magnetometer data

Magnetometric data are used to define the poleward and equatorward borders of the eastward electrojet in the evening sector. The relationship between central plasma sheet (cps) and boundary plasma sheet (bps) and the auroral electrojet region is explored. This relationship is used to infer the electric field configuration in the cps and bps regions. It is shown that in the evening sector the cps is threaded by field lines carrying current flowing into the ionosphere, while the bps is threaded by field lines carrying current flowing out of the ionosphere.

Winningham, J. D.↗

NASA NTRS1994

A filament of energetic particles near the high-latitude dawn magnetopause

The Geotail satelite detected a filament of tailward-streaming energetic particles spatially separated from the boundary layer of energetic particles at the high-latitude dawn magnetopause at a downstream distance of approximately 80 R(sub E) on October 27, 1992. During this event, the composition and charge states of energetic ions at energies above approximately 10 keV show significant intermix of ions from solar wind and ionospheric sources. Detailed analysis leads to the deduction that the filament was moving southward towards the neutral sheet at an average speed of approximately 80 km/s, implying an average duskward electric field of approximately 1 mV/m. Its north-south dimension was approximately 1 R(sub E) and it was associated with an earthward directed field-aligned current of approximately 5 mA/m. The filament was separated from the energetic particle boundary layer straddling the magnetopause by approximately 0.8 R(sub E) and was inferred to be detached from the boundary layer at downstream distance beyond approximately 70 R(sub E) in the distant tail.

Lui, A. T. Y.↗

NASA NTRS2000

NASA's Earth Observation Program: Past, Present and Future

The Earth Observing System (EOS) is a space-based observing system comprised of a series of satellite sensors by which scientists can monitor the Earth, a Data and Information System (EOSDIS) enabling researchers worldwide to access the satellite data, and an interdisciplinary science research program to interpret the satellite data. In this electronic theater presentation I will illustrate how scientists can learn about the Earth's atmosphere, land, oceans, and cryosphere from the vantage point of space-based global observations. This presentation will emphasize, but will not be limited to, Earth observations from space that highlight the ecosystem and environment of southern Africa, including: (i) dynamic geosynchronous satellite observations of southern Africa and nearby Indian Ocean, (ii) vegetation dynamics (normalized difference vegetation index and leaf area index), (iii) sea surface temperature, ocean topography, and surface winds over the Benguela and Agulhas Currents, (iv) Landsat 7 imagery of Cape Town, Etosha Pan, and other regions of southern Africa (v) fire distribution and dynamics in the Miombo woodland of Zambia, Angola, and Malawi, (vi) aerosol and cloud properties in southern Africa, and (vii) ice sheet distribution in and around Antarctica. We will illustrate these and other topics with a dynamic theater-style presentation, along with animations of satellite launch deployments and orbital mapping to highlight aspects of Earth observations from space.

King, Michael D.↗

NASA NTRS2000

State Relationships of Laminar Permanently-Blue Opposed-Jet Hydrocarbon-Fueled Diffusion Flames

The structure and state relationships of laminar soot-free (permanently-blue) diffusion flames at various strain rates were studied experimentally using an opposed-jet configuration, motivated by the importance of soot-free hydrocarbon-fueled diffusion flames for many practical applications. Measurements of gas velocities, temperatures and compositions were carried out along the stagnation stream line. Flame conditions studied included propylene- and 1,3-butadiene-fueled opposed-jet diffusion flames having a stoichiometric mixture fractions of 0.7 and strain rates of 60-240/s at normal temperature and pressure. It was found that oxygen leakage to fuel-rich conditions and carbon monoxide leakage to fuel-lean conditions both increased as strain rates increased. Furthermore, increased strain rates caused increased fuel concentrations near the flame sheet decreased peak gas temperatures, and decreased concentrations of carbon dioxide and water vapor throughout the flames. State relationships for major gas species and gas temperatures for these flames were found to exist over broad ranges of strain rates. In addition, current measurements, as well as previous measurements and predictions of ethylene-fueled permanently-blue diffusion flames, all having a stoichiometric mixture fraction of 0.7, were combined to establish generalized state relationships for permanently-blue diffusion flames for this stoichiometric mixture fraction. The combined measurements and predictions support relatively universal generalized state relationships for N2, CO2, H2O and fuel over a broad range of strain rates and fuel types. State relationships for O2 in the fuel-rich region, and for CO in the fuel-lean region, however, are functions of strain rate and fuel type. State relationships for H2 and temperature exhibit less universality, mainly due to the increased experimental uncertainties for these variables. The existence of state relationships for soot-free hydrocarbon-fueled diffusion flames provides potential for significant computational simplifications for modeling purposes in many instances, allowing for effects of finite-rate chemistry while avoiding time-consuming computations of Arrhenius expressions.

Lin, K.-C.↗

NASA NTRS2000

State Relationships of Laminar Permanently-Blue Opposed-Jet Hydrocarbon-Fueled Diffusion Flames

The structure and state relationships of laminar soot-free (permanently-blue) diffusion flames at various strain rates were studied experimentally using an opposed-jet configuration, motivated by the importance of soot-free hydrocarbon-fueled diffusion flames for many practical applications. Measurements of gas velocities, temperatures and compositions were carried out along the stagnation stream line. Flame conditions studied included propylene- and 1,3-butadiene-fueled opposed-jet diffusion flames having a stoichiometric mixture fractions of 0.7 and strain rates of 60-240 s (exp -1) at normal temperature and pressure. It was found that oxygen leakage to fuel-rich conditions and carbon monoxide leakage to fuel-lean conditions both increased as strain rates increased. Furthermore, increased strain rates caused increased fuel concentrations near the flame sheet, decreased peak gas temperatures, and decreased concentrations of carbon dioxide and water vapor throughout the flames. State relationships for major gas species and gas temperatures for these flames were found to exist over broad ranges of strain rates. In addition, current measurements, as well as previous measurements and predictions of ethylene-fueled permanently-blue diffusion flames, all having a stoichiometric mixture fraction of 0.7, were combined to establish generalized state relationships for permanently-blue diffusion flames for this stoichiometric mixture fraction. The combined measurements and predictions support relatively universal generalized state relationships for N2, CO2, H2O and fuel over a broad range of strain rates and fuel types. State relationships for O2 in the fuel-rich region, and for CO in the fuel-lean region, however, are functions of strain rate and fuel type. State relationships for H2 and temperature exhibit less universality, mainly due to the increased experimental uncertainties for these variables. The existence of state relationships for soot-free hydrocarbon-fueled diffusion flames provides potential for significant computational simplifications for modeling purposes in many instances, allowing for effects of finite-rate chemistry while avoiding time-consuming computations of Arrhenius expressions.

Lin, K.-C.↗

NASA NTRS2010

Global Response to Local Ionospheric Mass Ejection

We revisit a reported "Ionospheric Mass Ejection" using prior event observations to guide a global simulation of local ionospheric outflows, global magnetospheric circulation, and plasma sheet pressurization, and comparing our results with the observed global response. Our simulation framework is based on test particle motions in the Lyon-Fedder-Mobarry (LFM) global circulation model electromagnetic fields. The inner magnetosphere is simulated with the Comprehensive Ring Current Model (CRCM) of Fok and Wolf, driven by the transpolar potential developed by the LFM magnetosphere, and includes an embedded plasmaspheric simulation. Global circulation is stimulated using the observed solar wind conditions for the period 24-25 Sept 1998. This period begins with the arrival of a Coronal Mass Ejection, initially with northward, but later with southward interplanetary magnetic field. Test particles are launched from the ionosphere with fluxes specified by local empirical relationships of outflow to electrodynamic and particle precipitation imposed by the MIlD simulation. Particles are tracked until they are lost from the system downstream or into the atmosphere, using the full equations of motion. Results are compared with the observed ring current and a simulation of polar and auroral wind outflows driven globally by solar wind dynamic pressure. We find good quantitative agreement with the observed ring current, and reasonable qualitative agreement with earlier simulation results, suggesting that the solar wind driven global simulation generates realistic energy dissipation in the ionosphere and that the Strangeway relations provide a realistic local outflow description.

Moore, T. E.↗

NASA NTRS2012

Graphene Transparent Conductive Electrodes for Next- Generation Microshutter Arrays

Graphene is a single atomic layer of graphite. It is optically transparent and has high electron mobility, and thus has great potential to make transparent conductive electrodes. This invention contributes towards the development of graphene transparent conductive electrodes for next-generation microshutter arrays. The original design for the electrodes of the next generation of microshutters uses indium-tin-oxide (ITO) as the electrode material. ITO is widely used in NASA flight missions. The optical transparency of ITO is limited, and the material is brittle. Also, ITO has been getting more expensive in recent years. The objective of the invention is to develop a graphene transparent conductive electrode that will replace ITO. An exfoliation procedure was developed to make graphene out of graphite crystals. In addition, large areas of single-layer graphene were produced using low-pressure chemical vapor deposition (LPCVD) with high optical transparency. A special graphene transport procedure was developed for transferring graphene from copper substrates to arbitrary substrates. The concept is to grow large-size graphene sheets using the LPCVD system through chemical reaction, transfer the graphene film to a substrate, dope graphene to reduce the sheet resistance, and pattern the film to the dimension of the electrodes in the microshutter array. Graphene transparent conductive electrodes are expected to have a transparency of 97.7%. This covers the electromagnetic spectrum from UV to IR. In comparison, ITO electrodes currently used in microshutter arrays have 85% transparency in mid-IR, and suffer from dramatic transparency drop at a wavelength of near-IR or shorter. Thus, graphene also has potential application as transparent conductive electrodes for Schottky photodiodes in the UV region.

Li, Mary↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

MAGIC Mission Science and Applications Related to Cryosphere, Solid Earth and Neutral Atmosphere

The GRACE and GFO missions have revolutionised our understanding of mass movement at and below the surface of the Earth but they, nonetheless, have restrictions related to spatial and temporal resolution and instrument sensitivity that limits our ability to resolve certain processes. In this presentation we focus on the advances and capabilities that the proposed Mass change And Geosciences International Constellation (MAGIC) mission will deliver for cryosphere and solid Earth applications and will also consider the potential it will have for studying the neutral atmosphere. The time-varying gravity missions to date have had an effective spatial resolution of ~300 km, which is larger than the scale of any glacier or ice caps and larger than most catchments on the Greenland Ice Sheet. Even over Antarctica, the limited spatial resolution is a major limitation for regions such as the Antarctic Peninsula. Tectonic process, such as Earthquakes, volcanic activity and even viscous mantle flow can take place on scales smaller than can be resolved currently. The target resolution and accuracy for MAGIC over ice is 170 km at 2.6 mm/yr EWH over the long term and 250 km at 5.5 mm EWH at monthly resolution plus lower accuracy daily to weekly capabilities. We consider here what this means for understanding and observing ice mass exchange with the oceans and improving our ability to measure the manometric contribution to sea level rise. Based on similar targets, we also explore the improvements this offers for monitoring different types of solid Earth processes including geohazards, crustal evolution and deep interior properties and dynamics. We also consider what contributions MAGIC will be able to make to observations of thermosphere neutral density and related atmospheric parameters.

Jonathan Bamber↗

NASA NTRS2024

Evidence for a ~1 Ga Hypervelocity Impact Event Found in Northwest Greenland

There are likely many undiscovered impact structures on Earth, but several challenges prevent their detection, including possible concealment beneath large ice sheets. In recent years, geophysical, geochemical, and microphysical evidence has mounted for a ca. 58 Ma impact structure under the Hiawatha Glacier, northwest Greenland. Here, we report evidence for a second, much older hypervelocity impact event in this region, recorded in an impact melt rock sample collected from a glaciofluvial deposit in Inglefield Land. Secondary ion mass spectrometry U-Pb analyses of shock metamorphosed zircon grains yielded a previously unrecorded, Proterozoic best estimate impact age of 1039 ± 16 Ma (mean square of weighted deviates = 2.9). Based on Archean−Proterozoic target rock U-Pb ages obtained from unshocked zircon grains and the location of the melt rock sample along the ice margin, we suggest this sample was derived from a hypervelocity impact structure farther inland, concealed by the Greenland Ice Sheet. This study demonstrates the ability to uncover new impact events in some of the most inaccessible areas on Earth and the possibility of sampling multiple impact structures from one location when examining ex situ material. Our results have implications for current and future Martian and lunar returned samples that demonstrably bear complex impact histories.

William R. Hyde↗

DOE OSTI2022

High Performance Computing to Quantify the Evolution of Microscopic Concentration Gradients During Flash Processing

During the Flash process, the cross section of a plain-carbon or a low-alloy steel is austenitized through rapid heating and transformed on rapid cooling to a predominantly martensite + bainite structure with small amounts of retained austenite. Unlike conventional heat treating, homogeneity is intentionally avoided during Flash processing of steels. The Flash process assembly consists of a pair of rolls that transfer the steel sheets through the heating and cooling stage of the thermal cycle. The initial microstructure of the steel consists of ferrite (body-centered cubic iron) + carbide ((Fe,X)mCn) mixture. The heating rate through the peak temperature is a function of temperature and reaches a peak of about 300-400°C/s and the cooling rate has a maximum value of 3,000-4,000°C/s. The on-heating phase transformations include carbide dissolution, austenite (face-centered cubic iron) nucleation and growth, and diffusion of carbon and other substitutional elements in the steel. The on-cooling phase transformations include formation of martensite (body-centered tetragonal phase containing supersaturated solute) and bainite (ferrite plates with or without fine carbides). In this project, the focus is on Fe-C-Cr steels that are currently Flash processed for armor applications. The modeling effort proposed here will help optimize the Flash thermal cycle for these low alloy steels to achieve the target performance, which is an ongoing effort at SFP Works. A significant feature of Flash processed Fe-C-Cr steels is the presence of scatter in the through-thickness in the sheet. The variability in hardness results from a variability in the bainite + martensite microstructure that is sensitive to the local chemical concentration of C and Cr. Such a chemical inhomogeneity is intentionally obtained in the Flash process. Although such a microstructural gradient is presumably responsible for the exceptional properties of the Flash processed steel, it is very important to quantify the gradients as a function of Flash variabilities in processing parameters and the input microstructure. Understanding the mechanistic pathway that leads to microstructural gradients could be ground-breaking and instrumental for achieving better process control and optimized microstructural state to meet application-specific strength-ductility requirements. Since the final microstructure depends on setting up precise solute concentration gradients through a rapid heating process, and transforming these regions into various phases, it is important to understand how small changes in steel chemistry, input microstructure (carbide size and distribution), and process variables (Flash thermal cycle) will impact the solute concentration gradients.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2025

Reactive Carbide‐Based Synthesis and Microstructure of NASICON Sodium Metal All Solid‐State Electrolyte

Reactive carbide precursor-based synthesis of NASICON-type NZSP (Na 1+x Zr 2 Si x P 3-x O 12 ) solid-state electrolyte (SSE) is demonstrated, in contrast to the established oxide-based approach. Exothermic decomposition of ZrC and SiC in air homogenizes microstructure, yielding 98% compact density after conventional sintering at 1200 °C. Quantitative stereology demonstrates that significant microstructural differences are present. Compacts of carbide-derived Carb-NZSP are 98% dense with a secondary zirconium oxide (ZrO 2 ) volume fraction of 0.2% ± 0.3%, versus 93% dense and 3% ± 1% for oxide-derived baseline. For Carb-NZSP, the secondary glassy phosphate phase is agglomerated, while for baseline, it is dispersed and percolated. Electrochemical testing combined with post-mortem analysis demonstrates how microstructural control of secondary phases is critical for dendrite suppression: Carb-NZSP critical current density (CCD) is 3.1 ± 0.8 mA cm −2 at 0.1 mAh cm −2 , versus 1.0 ± 0.7 mA cm −2 at 0.1 mAh cm −2 . Cryogenic focused ion beam (cryo-FIB) analysis demonstrates that in both materials, the porous 2D sheet-like sodium metal dendrites propagate around and subsume NZSP grains, likely following a path enriched with glassy phase and with porosity. Dendrites also flow around isolated zirconia particles. Phase field simulation reveals deflection of dendrites by mechanically tough zirconia, while brittle glassy phase accelerates dendrite growth, especially when finely distributed.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2022

Common Information Model for Electromagnetic Transients (CIM for EMT): CRADA 533 [Abstract only}

The control and protection functions of inverter-based resources (IBR) have raised concerns with bulk system reliability. Most of the current interest lies with solar photovoltaic generation but increasing amounts of storage would pose the same risks. Newer North American Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC) guidelines call for electromagnetic transient (EMT) studies of IBR and recommend that transmission operators collect distributed energy resource (DER) data to support such modeling. IEEE Standard P2800.1 is defining tests for model parameterization, so good model data should become available from inverter vendors. (EMT studies also apply to large power transformer reliability, and transformer vendors can provide EMT models.) Utilities don’t currently have the rest of the bulk system represented for EMT studies at large scale. An International Electrotechnical Commission (IEC) standard Common Information Model (CIM) provides a way of supporting these detailed models from physical asset data, e.g., conductors, towers, transformer data sheets, control block diagrams, while avoiding software vendor lock-in. CIM-for-EMT, with proposed schema extensions and open-source converters, provides a way to exchange EMT data between organizations and tools. This project leverages Office of Electricity (OE) funding of CIM-for-EMT code base through the GridAPPS-DTM project, and of GridPACKTM (parallelized transmission solver), for interoperability testing in CIM-for-EMT. The project also leverages partner PGSTech investments in EMTP® interoperability with CIM.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

NASA NTRS2011

Consequences of the Ion Cyclotron Instability in the Inner Magnetospheric Plasma

The inner magnetospheric plasma is a very unique composition of different plasma particles and waves. Among these plasma particles and waves are Ring Current (RC) particles and Electromagnetic Ion Cyclotron (EMIC) waves. The RC is the source of free energy for the EMIC wave excitation provided by a temperature anisotropy of RC ions, which develops naturally during inward E x B convection from the plasma sheet. The cold plasmasphere, which is under the strong influence of the magnetospheric electric field, strongly mediates the RC-EMIC waves-coupling process, and ultimately becomes part of the particle and energy interplay, generated by the ion cyclotron instability of the inner magnetosphere. On the other hand, there is a strong influence of the RC on the inner magnetospheric electric and magnetic field configurations and these configurations, in turn, are important to RC dynamics. Therefore, one of the biggest needs for inner magnetospheric plasma physics research is the continued progression toward a coupled, interconnected system, with the inclusion of nonlinear feedback mechanisms between the plasma populations, the electric and magnetic fields, and plasma waves.

Khazanov, George V.↗

NASA NTRS2000

Latest Word on Retreat of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet

The West Antarctic ice sheet during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) is estimated to have been three times its present volume and to have extended close to the edge of the continental shelf Holocene retreat of this ice sheet in the Ross Sea began between 11,000 and 12,000 years ago. This history implies an average contribution of this ice sheet to sea level of 0.9 mm/a. Evidence of dateable past grounding line positions in the Ross sector are broadly consistent with a linear retreat model. However, inferred rates of retreat for some of these grounding line positions are not consistent with a linear retreat model. More rapid retreat approximately 7600 years ago and possible near-stability in the Ross Sea sector at present suggest a slow rate of initial retreat followed by a more rapid-than-average retreat during the late Holocene, returning to a near-zero rate of retreat currently. This model is also consistent with the mid-Holocene high stand observations of eustatic sea level. Recent compilation of Antarctic bed elevations (BEDMAP) illustrates that the LGM and present grounding lines occur in the shallowest waters, further supporting the model of a middle phase of rapid retreat bracketed by an older and a more recent phase of modest retreat. Extension of these hypotheses into the future make subsequent behavior of the West Antarctic ice sheet more difficult to predict but suggest that if it loses its hold on the present shallow bed, the final retreat of the ice sheet could be very rapid.

Bindschadler, R.↗