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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 1,657 records · Page 92
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2023

Diagnosing Near-Surface Model Errors with Candidate Physics Parameterization Schemes for the Multiphysics Rapid Refresh Forecast System (RRFS) Ensemble during Winter over the Northeastern United States and Southern Great Plains

Abstract During the winter of 2020/21 an ensemble of FV3-LAM forecasts was produced over the contiguous United States for the Winter Weather Experiment using five physics suites. These forecasts are evaluated with the goal of optimizing physics parameterizations within the future operational Rapid Refresh Forecast System (RRFS) in the Unified Forecast System (UFS) realm and for selecting suitable physics suites for a multiphysics RRFS ensemble. The five physics suites have different combinations of land surface models (LSMs), planetary boundary layer (PBL) parameterizations, and surface layer schemes, chosen from those used in current and possible future operational systems and likely to be supported in the operational UFS. Full-season evaluation reveals a persistent near-surface cold bias in the U.S. Northeast from one suite and a nighttime warm bias in the southern Great Plains in another suite, while other suites have smaller biases. A representative case is chosen to diagnose the cause for each of these biases using sensitivity simulations with different physics combinations or modified parameters and verified with additional mesonet observations. The cold bias in the Northeast is attributed to aspects of the Noah-MP LSM over snow cover, where Noah-MP simulates lower soil water content, and thus lower thermal conductivity than other LSMs, leading to less upward ground heat flux during nighttime and consequently lower surface temperature. The nighttime warm bias found in the southern Great Plains is attributed to overestimation of vertical mixing in the K -profile-based eddy-diffusivity mass-flux (K-EDMF) PBL scheme and insufficient land–atmospheric coupling from the GFS surface layer scheme over short vegetation. A few key parameters driving these systematic biases are identified.

Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences↗
DOE OSTI2019

Assessment of impinged flame structure in high-pressure direct diesel injection

Spray impingement often occurs during cold-start in direct-injection diesel engines, affecting the subsequent combustion process by altering the local flow condition. This work has investigated the impinged flame structure by examining local expansion distance and planar curvature of the boundary in details. The experiments were carried out in a constant volume combustion chamber. The injection pressure and ambient density were varied from 120 to 180 MPa and 14.8 to 30.0 kg/m 3 under non-vaporizing conditions, respectively. For reacting conditions, the injection pressure and ambient density were fixed at 150 MPa and 22.8 kg/m 3 but with different ambient temperatures from 800 to 1000 K. Unlike orthogonal spray impingement, the profile of expansion distance along the radial direction at the 60° impinging angle is non-uniform but the profile is comparable between the non-vaporizing and reacting conditions under the same injection pressure and ambient density. With the help of Intensity-aXial-Time method, the most intensive soot luminosity region and Mie scattering intensity region are identified and the region has been found to be along the impinged spray axial direction. Outmost boundary of an impinged flame is found to have wrinkles attributed to air entrainment. The temporal level of flame wrinkles is higher in reacting conditions than in non-vaporizing conditions. The scatter distribution of the boundary curvature and near-field soot formation illustrates an inverted “S” shape correlation with time. High flame luminosity is found to be formed in concave regions while less soot is formed in convex regions. This inverted S-shape is a new finding of the state relationship at the solid–liquid–gas impinged flame propagation. Finally, heat flux measurement through the plate is examined.

Engineering↗
DOE OSTI2020

Examining Perceptions of Spanish Language Health Information Among Hispanics Living in the United States: A Qualitative Study Assessing Videos, Brochures, and Websites

Background Nationally, Hispanics experience health disparities manifested as a higher prevalence of chronic diseases in comparison to non-Hispanic Whites. Factors that influence health disparities in this population include inadequate dissemination of culturally and linguistically appropriate health information. Method Our qualitative analysis is based on data obtained from three focus groups with Spanish-speaking Hispanic adults conducted at a clinic in Nebraska. Participants were asked about their perceptions of health information in the form of videos, brochures, and websites. We followed the consolidated criteria for reporting qualitative research and used the theoretical framework of content analysis. Results For videos, attributes associated with higher levels of trust included a friendly health professional, the logo or name of a health care institute, and a reference specifying “se habla Español.” For brochures, attributes associated with trust included use of visual aids, use of numerous colors and big font sizes, the year of printing, and a health care agency logo. For websites, characteristics associated with trust were inclusion of plain language, use of pictures and videos, and date of last update. In all focus groups, participants perceived the use of mixed English/Spanish language in health information from pamphlets and websites as unprofessional. The use of unknown governmental logos in health promotional videos and websites was perceived as untrustworthy information. Conclusions Spanish-speaking Hispanics prefer health information supported by a health care agency or delivered by a health care professional. Health communication strategies should avoid the use of mixed English/Spanish language in sensitive information especially when combined with governmental logos.

De Alba Rosales, Armando↗
DOE OSTI2020

Lighting Control in Patient Rooms: Understanding Nurses’ Perceptions of Hospital Lighting Using Qualitative Methods

Here, this study differs in its methodological approach from previously published research by interpreting qualitative results against existing literature to understand how nurses conceptualize medical–surgical patient rooms as productive settings in relation to lighting, as well as the ways in which nurses believe these spaces could be enhanced for patient satisfaction. Content analysis was used to interpret themes emerging from nurses’ subjective responses to open-ended items. Three of the facilities had older, traditional lighting systems; one had a contemporary framework. A theme of environmental control over both overhead and task lighting emerged from data from all items. Although controllability was among the “best” lighting attributes, more refinement is necessary for optimal staff productivity and patient satisfaction. Daylighting was also considered to be among the best attributes. Control over light level via additional dimming capability for patients, as well as additional light sources, was prominent across the four hospitals. Unique to the more modern facility, trespassing of light was problematic for nurses considering the experiences of patients—even where modern models exist, more attention can be paid to the ways in which window shades, and light sources outside of rooms, penetrate spaces and affect users. Finally, the finding that nurses and patients desire greater control over the lighting in patient rooms is consistent with Ulrich’s theory of supportive design for healthcare and coincides with advances in lighting technology. Despite differences in the level of sophistication in lighting among the four facilities, control continues to be a primary concern for nurses.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2017

Quantifying drivers of wild pig movement across multiple spatial and temporal scales

The movement behavior of an animal is determined by extrinsic and intrinsic factors that operate at multiple spatio-temporal scales, yet much of our knowledge of animal movement comes from studies that examine only one or two scales concurrently. Understanding the drivers of animal movement across multiple scales is crucial for understanding the fundamentals of movement ecology, predicting changes in distribution, describing disease dynamics, and identifying efficient methods of wildlife conservation and management. We obtained over 400,000 GPS locations of wild pigs from 13 different studies spanning six states in southern U.S.A., and quantified movement rates and home range size within a single analytical framework. We used a generalized additive mixed model framework to quantify the effects of five broad predictor categories on movement: individual-level attributes, geographic factors, landscape attributes, meteorological conditions, and temporal variables. We examined effects of predictors across three temporal scales: daily, monthly, and using all data during the study period. We considered both local environmental factors such as daily weather data and distance to various resources on the landscape, as well as factors acting at a broader spatial scale such as ecoregion and season. We found meteorological variables (temperature and pressure), landscape features (distance to water sources), a broad-scale geographic factor (ecoregion), and individual-level characteristics (sex-age class), drove wild pig movement across all scales, but both the magnitude and shape of covariate relationships to movement differed across temporal scales. The analytical framework we present can be used to assess movement patterns arising from multiple data sources for a range of species while accounting for spatio-temporal correlations. Our analyses show the magnitude by which reaction norms can change based on the temporal scale of response data, illustrating the importance of appropriately defining temporal scales of both the movement response and covariates depending on the intended implications of research (e.g., predicting effects of movement due to climate change versus planning local-scale management). We argue that consideration of multiple spatial scales within the same framework (rather than comparing across separate studies post-hoc) gives a more accurate quantification of cross-scale spatial effects by appropriately accounting for error correlation.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Optical anisotropy of CsPbBr3 perovskite nanoplatelets

Abstract The two-dimensional CsPbBr 3 nanoplatelets have a quantum well electronic structure with a band gap tunable with sample thicknesses in discreet steps based upon the number of monolayers. The polarized optical properties of CsPbBr 3 nanoplatelets are studied using fluorescence anisotropy and polarized transient absorption spectroscopies. Polarized spectroscopy shows that they have absorption and emission transitions which are strongly plane-polarized. In particular, photoluminescence excitation and transient absorption measurements reveal a band-edge polarization approaching 0.1, the limit of isotropic two-dimensional ensembles. The degree of anisotropy is found to depend on the thickness of the nanoplatelets: multiple measurements show a progressive decrease in optical anisotropy from 2 to 5 monolayer thick nanoplatelets. In turn, larger cuboidal CsPbBr 3 nanocrystals, are found to have consistently positive anisotropy which may be attributed to symmetry breaking from ideal perovskite cubes. Optical measurements of anisotropy are described with respect to the theoretical framework developed to describe exciton fine structure in these materials. The observed planar absorption and emission are close to predicted values at thinner nanoplatelet sizes and follow the predicted trend in anisotropy with thickness, but with larger anisotropy than theoretical predictions. Dominant planar emission, albeit confined to the thinnest nanoplatelets, is a valuable attribute for enhanced efficiency of light-emitting devices.

77 NANOSCIENCE AND NANOTECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2021

Evaluating proxies for the drivers of natural gas productivity using machine-learning models

We report the extensive development of unconventional reservoirs using horizontal drilling and multistage hydraulic fracturing has generated large volumes of reservoir characterization and production data. The analysis of this abundant data using statistical methods and advanced machine-learning (ML) techniques can provide data-driven insights into well performance. Most predictive modeling studies have focused on the impact that different well completion and stimulation strategies have on well production but have not fully exploited the available in situ rock property data to determine its role in reservoir productivity. We have used machine-learning techniques to rank rock mechanical properties, microseismic attributes, and stimulation parameters in the order of their significance for predicting natural gas production from an unconventional reservoir. The data for this study came from a hydraulically fractured well in the Marcellus Shale in Monongalia County, West Virginia. The data classes included measurements aggregated by well completion stage that included (1) gas production, (2) well-log-derived measurements including bulk density, elastic moduli, shear impedance, compressional impedance, brittleness, and gamma measurements, (3) microseismic attributes, (4) long-period long-duration (LPLD) event counts, (5) fracture counts, and (6) stimulation parameters that included the fluid injection volume and average pumping pressure. To identify observable proxies for the drivers of gas production, we evaluated five commonly used ML approaches including multivariate adaptive regression spline, Gaussian mixture model, random forest, gradient boosting, and neural network. We selected five variables including LPLD event count, seismogenic b-value, hydraulic diffusivity, cumulative moment, and fluid volume as the features most likely to impact gas productivity at the stage level in the study area. The data-driven selection of these parameters for their importance in determining gas production can help reservoir engineers design more effective hydraulic-fracture treatments in the Marcellus Shale and other similar unconventional reservoirs. Plain language summary: We use machine-learning methods and data-driven selection of reservoir parameters to rank and better understand their importance in determining gas production, which can help reservoir engineers design more effective hydraulic-fracture treatments in the Marcellus Shale and other similar unconventional reservoirs.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Chapter 4: "Waste"-to-Energy for Decarbonization - Transforming Nut Shells Into Carbon-Negative Electricity

This chapter presents a study demonstrating waste pistachio nut shells as a renewable feedstock for climate-friendly electricity generation via industrial gasification technology. The study includes biomass feedstock characterization (i.e., pistachio waste critical material attributes), process variability (i.e., bulk material handling), and overall operational reliability and conversion performance through extended testing. Additionally, techno-economic analysis (TEA) and life cycle assessment (LCA) were performed to assess the economic feasibility and environmental impact of the technology to transform agricultural waste to biopower. For processing pistachio waste material, among critical material attributes, fines content in the biomass (<1/4") had the largest potential to reduce the operating time of the gasifiers due to plugging. Pelletizing fines and co-feeding them with the mixed pistachio waste increased the average feed density, feed rate, and biochar production. Compared to pine wood chips, mixed pistachio waste yielded higher biochar quantity but slightly reduced quality. In general, a systematic Quality by Design methodology is the preferred approach for designing preprocessing and material conveyance systems, where a downstream technology (end user) for the produced intermediate is specified at the outset. TEA results show that the biochar production rate and selling price had an overwhelming impact on the modeled Minimum Electricity Selling Price (MESP), which ranged from 35.5 to 39.9 cents/kWh for the cases studied (16 h/day operational basis). Moreover, LCA results show that the valorization of pistachio shells for biopower generation is a "carbon negative" process that can help decarbonize the U.S. electricity grid. The specific carbon intensity was -0.29 to -0.71 kg CO2e/kWh, compared to 0.45 kg CO2e/kWh for the average U.S. electricity mix. Biochar production from pistachio waste as a potential means for carbon sequestration was a significant driver for the LCA. The highly stable biochar permanently sequesters a considerable fraction of biochar carbon in the ground, more than enough to offset the life cycle emissions, and can be a complementary climate change mitigation strategy.

bio-char↗
DOE OSTI2026

Data for A Hybrid Biophysical-Machine Learning Framework for Diurnal Surface Energy Flux Estimation Using Proximal Sensing

Thermal infrared-based remote sensing of surface energy fluxes has traditionally relied on high spatial resolution satellite data with revisit frequencies on the order of weeks. In this study, we evaluate a biophysics-based analytical surface energy balance model for predicting latent energy (LE) and sensible heat (H) fluxes using proximal sensing observations. The Surface Temperature Initiated Closure (STIC1.2) model has been extensively validated across a wide range of spatial and temporal scales using various satellite-derived thermal infrared data sets. Here we extend this validation by applying STIC at sub-hourly temporal resolution over multiple growing seasons for four distinct agricultural systems. We further develop and evaluate novel STIC variants that incorporate machine learning (ML) techniques to eliminate the need for surface energy balance observations, specifically net radiation and soil heat flux, thereby enhancing model applicability in data-sparse settings. The integration of a ML component to estimate surface available energy is shown to have strong predictive performance for both LE (R2 = 0.81–0.94) and H (R2 = 0.46–0.72) across all agricultural systems examined here, demonstrating the potential of hybrid biophysical-machine learning approaches for surface energy balance modeling with minimal data requirements. This study concludes with a novel application of explainable machine learning (exML) to diagnose sources of model error. This exML framework attributes residual prediction errors to both model input variables and environmental drivers not explicitly included in the simulation experiments. This approach provides a new pathway for improving model design and integrating previously overlooked yet influential variables into future model iterations.

AI/ML↗
DOE OSTI2024

Dataset for "Resistance of Boron Nitride Nanotubes to Radiation-Induced Oxidation" as published in The Journal of Physical Chemistry C

We present unprecedented results on the damage thresholds and pathways for boron nitride nanotubes (BNNT) under the influence of energetic electrons in an oxidative gas environment, using an environmental aberration-corrected electron microscope over a range of oxygen pressures. We observe a damage cascade process that resists damage until a higher electron dose, compared with carbon nanotubes, initiating at defect-free BNNT sidewalls and proceeding through the conversion from crystalline nanotubes to amorphous boron nitride (BN), resisting oxidation throughout. We compare with prior results on the oxidation of carbon nanotubes and present a model that attributes the onset of damage in both cases to a physisorbed oxygen layer that reduces the threshold for damage onset. Surprisingly, increased temperatures offer protection against damage, as do electron dose rates that significantly exceed the oxygen dose rates, and our model attributes both effects to a physisorbed oxygen population.

Adsorption↗
DOE OSTI2021

SMC 2021 Data Challenge: Analyzing Resource Utilization and User Behavior on Titan Supercomputer

Resource utilization statistics of submitted jobs on a supercomputer can help us understand how users from various scientific domains use HPC platforms and better design a job scheduler. We explore to generate insight regarding workload distribution and usage pattern domains from job scheduler trace, GPU failure information, and project-specific information collected from Titan supercomputer. Furthermore, we want to know how the scheduler performance varies over time and how the users' scheduling behavior changes following a system failure. These observations have the potential to provide valuable insight, which is helpful to prepare for system failures. These practices will help us develop and apply novel machine learning algorithms in understanding system behavior, requirement, and better scheduling of HPC systems. There are two datasets, RUR and GPU: RUR dataset is the job scheduler traces collected from the Titan supercomputer from 01/01/2015 to 07/31/2019 (2015.csv - 2019.csv). These were collected using resource Utilization Report (RUR), a Cray-developed resource-usage data collection and reporting system. It contains the usage information of its critical resources (CPU, Memory, GPU, and I/O) of each running job on Titan during that period (https://ieeexplore.ieee.org/abstract/document/8891001). It includes ProjectAreas as additional information, every job is associated with a project ID. TheProjectAreas.csv dataset provides a mapping of the project ID to its domain science. GPU dataset has information regarding GPU failure on Titan. There have been some hardware-related issues in the GPUs in Titan that caused some GPUs to fail, sometimes irrecoverably during some job runs. This dataset provides information regarding these failures during the execution of the submitted jobs. GPUs on Titan are uniquely identified by a serial number (SN), and they are installed in a location. A GPU can be installed in a location, then removed from that location following a failure, and then re-installed in a different location after fixing the problem. If the failure can't be recovered, the GPU might be removed entirely from Titan. There are two prominent types of failures that resulted in the removal of GPUs from Titan: Double Bit Error (DBE) and Out of the Bus (OTB). The dataset (gc_full.csv) has seven attributes, we provided a short description of these attributes in the ReadMe file. To learn more about this dataset, please refer to the git repository https://github.com/olcf/TitanGPULife and the related publication (https://ieeexplore.ieee.org/abstract/document/9355319).

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2017

The Fusion Nuclear Science Facility, the Critical Step in the Pathway to Fusion Energy

The proposed Fusion Nuclear Science Facility (FNSF) represents the first facility to enter the complex fusion nuclear regime, and its technical mission and attributes are being developed. The FNSF represents one part of the fusion energy development pathway to the first commercial power plant with other major components being the pre-FNSF research and development, research in parallel with the FNSF, pre-DEMO research and development, and the demonstration power plant (DEMO). Finally, the Fusion Energy Systems Studies group is developing the technical basis for the FNSF in order to provide a better understanding of the demands on the fusion plasma and fusion nuclear science programs.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2023

Photothermal heterodyne imaging of micron-sized objects

Micron-sized dye-doped polymer beads were imaged using transmitted/reflected light microscopy and photothermal heterodyne imaging (PHI) measurements. The transmitted/reflected light images show distinct ring patterns that are attributed to diffraction effects and/or internal reflections within the beads. In the PHI experiments pump laser induced heating changes the refractive index and size of the bead, which causes changes in the diffraction pattern and internal reflections. This creates an analogous ring pattern in the PHI images. The ring pattern disappears in both the reflected light and PHI experiments when an incoherent light source is used as a probe. When the beads are imaged in an organic medium heat transfer changes the refractive index of the environment, and gives rise to a ring pattern external to the beads in the PHI images. This causes the beads to appear larger than their physical dimensions in PHI experiments. This external signal does not appear when the beads are imaged in air because the refractive index changes in air are very small.

Bhandari, Janak (ORCID:0000000188423259)↗
DOE OSTI2020

High-Q suspended optical resonators in 3C silicon carbide obtained by thermal annealing

We fabricate suspended single-mode optical waveguides and ring resonators in 3C silicon carbide (SiC) that operate at telecommunication wavelength, and leverage post-fabrication thermal annealing to minimize optical propagation losses. Annealed optical resonators yield quality factors of over 41,000, which corresponds to a propagation loss of 7 dB/cm, and is a significant improvement over the 24 dB/cm in the case of the non-annealed chip. This improvement is attributed to the enhancement of SiC crystallinity and a significant reduction of waveguide surface roughness, from 2.4 nm to below 1.7 nm. The latter is attributed to surface layer oxide growth during the annealing step. We confirm that the thermo-optic coefficient, an important parameter governing high-power and temperature-dependent performance of SiC, does not vary with annealing and is comparable to that of bulk SiC. Our annealing-based approach, which is especially suitable for suspended structures, offers a straightforward way to realize high-performance 3C-SiC integrated circuits.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2018

Tracking of oxide formation in laser-produced uranium plasmas

We use a spatially and temporally resolved emission tracking technique based on optical emission spectroscopy to map the evolution of emission features from uranium and its com- pounds in a plasma produced by a nanosecond laser. We observe quenching of the emission from neutral uranium (591.538 nm) and uranium monoxide (593.55 nm) species with increasing oxygen concentration and discuss possible reaction pathways for dissociation or formation of higher uranium oxides U x O y . Here, we further identify spectral features between 320 nm and 380 nm and between 520 nm and 640 nm, which we attribute to U x O y .

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2015

Multicopy Single-Stranded DNA Directs Intestinal Colonization of Enteric Pathogens

Multicopy single-stranded DNAs (msDNAs) are hybrid RNA-DNA molecules encoded on retroelements called retrons and produced by the action of retron reverse transcriptases. Retrons are widespread in bacteria but the natural function of msDNA has remained elusive despite 30 years of study. The major roadblock to elucidation of the function of these unique molecules has been the lack of any identifiable phenotypes for mutants unable to make msDNA. We report that msDNA of the zoonotic pathogen Salmonella Typhimurium is necessary for colonization of the intestine. Similarly, we observed a defect in intestinal persistence in an enteropathogenic E. coli mutant lacking its retron reverse transcriptase. Under anaerobic conditions in the absence of msDNA, proteins of central anaerobic metabolism needed for Salmonella colonization of the intestine are dysregulated. We show that the msDNA-deficient mutant can utilize nitrate but not other alternate electron acceptors in anaerobic conditions. Consistent with the availability of nitrate in the inflamed gut, a neutrophilic inflammatory response partially rescued the ability of a mutant lacking msDNA to colonize the intestine. These findings together indicate that the mechanistic basis of msDNA function during Salmonella colonization of the intestine is proper production of proteins needed for anaerobic metabolism. We further conclude that a natural function of msDNA is to regulate protein abundance, the first attributable function for any msDNA. Our data provide novel insight into the function of this mysterious molecule that likely represents a new class of regulatory molecules.

Environmental Molecular Sciences Laboratory↗
DOE OSTI2014

Selecting Essential Information for Biosurveillance—A Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis

The National Strategy for Biosurveillancedefines biosurveillance as ‘‘the process of gathering, integrating, interpreting, and communicating essential information related to all-hazards threats or disease activity affecting human, animal, or plant health to achieve early detection and warning, contribute to overall situational awareness of the health aspects of an incident, and to enable better decision-making at all levels.’’ However, the strategy does not specify how ‘‘essential information’’ is to be identified and integrated into the current biosurveillance enterprise, or what the metrics qualify information as being ‘‘essential’’. Thequestion of data stream identification and selection requires a structured methodology that can systematically evaluate the tradeoffs between the many criteria that need to be taken in account. Multi-Attribute Utility Theory, a type of multi-criteria decision analysis, can provide a well-defined, structured approach that can offer solutions to this problem. While the use of Multi-Attribute Utility Theoryas a practical method to apply formal scientific decision theoretical approaches to complex, multi-criteria problems has been demonstrated in a variety of fields, this method has never been applied to decision support in biosurveillance.We have developed a formalized decision support analytic framework that can facilitate identification of ‘‘essential information’’ for use in biosurveillance systems or processes and we offer this framework to the global BSV community as a tool for optimizing the BSV enterprise. To demonstrate utility, we applied the framework to the problem of evaluating data streams for use in an integrated global infectious disease surveillance system.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗
DOE OSTI2015

Modeling the Potential Effects of New Tobacco Products and Policies. A Dynamic Population Model for Multiple Product Use and Harm

Background Recent declines in US cigarette smoking prevalence have coincided with increases in use of other tobacco products. Multiple product tobacco models can help assess the population health impacts associated with use of a wide range of tobacco products. Methods and Findings We present a multi-state, dynamical systems population structure model that can be used to assess the effects of tobacco product use behaviors on population health. The model incorporates transition behaviors, such as initiation, cessation, switching, and dual use, related to the use of multiple products. The model tracks product use prevalence and mortality attributable to tobacco use for the overall population and by sex and age group. The model can also be used to estimate differences in these outcomes between scenarios by varying input parameter values. We demonstrate model capabilities by projecting future cigarette smoking prevalence and smoking-attributable mortality and then simulating the effects of introduction of a hypothetical new lower-risk tobacco product under a variety of assumptions about product use. Sensitivity analyses were conducted to examine the range of population impacts that could occur due to differences in input values for product use and risk. We demonstrate that potential benefits from cigarette smokers switching to the lower-risk product can be offset over time through increased initiation of this product. Model results show that population health benefits are particularly sensitive to product risks and initiation, switching, and dual use behaviors. Conclusion Our model incorporates the variety of tobacco use behaviors and risks that occur with multiple products. As such, it can evaluate the population health impacts associated with the introduction of new tobacco products or policies that may result in product switching or dual use. Further model development will include refinement of data inputs for non-cigarette tobacco products and inclusion of health outcomes such as morbidity and disability.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗